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DOE OSTI2024

Markov Decision Processes for Intelligent, Risk-Informed Asset-Management Decision-Making

Advanced nuclear reactors are a promising option for aiding the world in achieving its net-zero carbon emission goals, however, there are significant challenges to attaining and maintaining economic competitiveness with other sources of electricity. To improve the economic competitiveness of advanced reactor designs, a project was initiated to explore the use of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) to guide asset-management decision-making during advanced reactor operation. MDPs are a powerful tool for optimizing decision-making in complex environments and their application to advanced reactors can aid in planning maintenance and repair activities to minimize downtime and maximize generation. The described approach expands on previous work regarding the use of MDPs for operational decision-making through the direct incorporation of real-time plant information. The integral MDP analysis includes information from online component diagnostic tools and the plant’s real-time generation risk assessment (GRA) and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), which evaluate plant risk from both an economic and safety perspective. The result is an asset-management optimization framework that is based on real-time data regarding plant component status and the current best-estimate of plant risk. The paper presents an overview of the theoretical framework to incorporate the different information pathways into an integral MDP analysis, along with example analyses.

Grabaskas, David↗

DOE OSTI2016

Strengthening LLNL Missions through Laboratory Directed Research and Development in High Performance Computing

High performance computing (HPC) has been a defining strength of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) since its founding. Livermore scientists have designed and used some of the world’s most powerful computers to drive breakthroughs in nearly every mission area. Today, the Laboratory is recognized as a world leader in the application of HPC to complex science, technology, and engineering challenges. Most importantly, HPC has been integral to the National Nuclear Security Administration’s (NNSA’s) Stockpile Stewardship Program—designed to ensure the safety, security, and reliability of our nuclear deterrent without nuclear testing. A critical factor behind Lawrence Livermore’s preeminence in HPC is the ongoing investments made by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) Program in cutting-edge concepts to enable efficient utilization of these powerful machines. Congress established the LDRD Program in 1991 to maintain the technical vitality of the Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories. Since then, LDRD has been, and continues to be, an essential tool for exploring anticipated needs that lie beyond the planning horizon of our programs and for attracting the next generation of talented visionaries. Through LDRD, Livermore researchers can examine future challenges, propose and explore innovative solutions, and deliver creative approaches to support our missions. The present scientific and technical strengths of the Laboratory are, in large part, a product of past LDRD investments in HPC. Here, we provide seven examples of LDRD projects from the past decade that have played a critical role in building LLNL’s HPC, computer science, mathematics, and data science research capabilities, and describe how they have impacted LLNL’s mission.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Efficient and Zero Net Energy-Ready Plug Loads

Plug loads are the devices plugged into common electrical outlets. Modern buildings contain hundreds of these devices which, together, are responsible for at least 25 percent of the energy use in California buildings. Energy consumed by plug loads is increasing because the “Internet of Things” is, to a great extent, the “Internet of Plug Loads.” This project developed technologies that will reduce the energy use of plug loads. Two crosscutting strategies were investigated in detail: (1) technologies to reduce standby power use to near zero, and (2) methods to increase the use of direct current (DC) as a power source. Two new approaches to reduce standby to near zero were developed and have potential applicability to a wide range of devices. Prototype DC appliances were developed to demonstrate energy savings by bypassing power supplies and avoiding other losses. Networks of DC-powered devices can save even more energy and provide other benefits, such as resiliency during power outages. A unique category of energy-using devices was identified that provide life safety, health, and security to building occupants. Their installation or use is dictated by building codes, health providers, insurance companies, and other entities—none of whom would ordinarily prioritize energy efficiency. In the case of ground fault circuit interrupts (GFCIs), savings of 80 percent appear possible, simply by adopting the most efficient designs. Home medical equipment, particularly oxygen concentrators, are a rising category of energy use where significant savings are possible. This report also reviews the codes, standards, and other policies that affect energy use of plug loads.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Biobased Flame Retardants Towards Sustainable Building Materials with Low Embodied Carbon

Incorporation of fire retardants in different types of products is one of the essential steps in the material production process to minimize fire risk and meet fire safety requirements. A variety of commonly used flame retardants based on halogen, mineral, and other compounds has gained popularity due to their efficient flame-retardant behaviors. However, especially in the case of halides, there are numerous toxicity related issues and environmental pollution effects that have urged the building sector to deviate from their use and focus on the development of non-toxic alternatives. Therefore, to enhance the safety of flame retardants, the synthesis of flame retardants from waste feedstocks using phosphorous chemistry with a dual flame-retardant mechanism has been established. A range of waste feedstocks that include cardanol, vanillin, and gallic acids has been converted into a series of flame retardants using a one-step approach by incorporating phosphorous moieties into their structures. The established pathways allow to develop a range of flame-retardant materials by converting waste feedstocks into phosphorous-based materials with inherent flame retardancy. The introduction of abundant aromatic structures from biobased feedstocks enables high charring capabilities in materials in which these biobased flame retardants have been incorporated, increasing their char yields which significantly enhances the flame suppressing properties of the designed materials. Studies show that inclusion of phosphoric moieties into structures allows the displacement of flame enhancing radicals, by releasing non-flammable and non-toxic gases, therefore inhibiting the spread of fire in the gas phase. The resulting biobased flame retardants have been incorporated in wood substrates, foam insulation, and hemp fibers where the results show that only 1-5% of loading of biobased flame retardant suppressed the flame completely. This study represents a novel approach for the development of flame retardants with high performance while utilizing waste feedstocks as a source for their design.

Demchuk, Zoriana [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000326292235)↗

NASA NTRS2002

Phase 1 Space Fission Propulsion Energy Source Design

Fission technology can enable rapid, affordable access to any point in the solar system. If fission propulsion systems are to be developed to their full potential; however, near-term customers must be identified and initial fission systems successfully developed, launched, and operated. Studies conducted in fiscal year 2001 (IISTP, 2001) show that fission electric propulsion (FEP) systems with a specific mass at or below 50 kg/kWjet could enhance or enable numerous robotic outer solar system missions of interest. At the required specific mass, it is possible to develop safe, affordable systems that meet mission requirements. To help select the system design to pursue, eight evaluation criteria were identified: system integration, safety, reliability, testability, specific mass, cost, schedule, and programmatic risk. A top-level comparison of four potential concepts was performed: a Testable, Passive, Redundant Reactor (TPRR), a Testable Multi-Cell In-Core Thermionic Reactor (TMCT), a Direct Gas Cooled Reactor (DGCR), and a Pumped Liquid Metal Reactor.(PLMR). Development of any of the four systems appears feasible. However, for power levels up to at least 500 kWt (enabling electric power levels of 125-175 kWe, given 25-35% power conversion efficiency) the TPRR has advantages related to several criteria and is competitive with respect to all. Hardware-based research and development has further increased confidence in the TPRR approach. Successful development and utilization of a "Phase I" fission electric propulsion system will enable advanced Phase 2 and Phase 3 systems capable of providing rapid, affordable access to any point in the solar system.

Houts, Mike↗

NASA NTRS2005

A Review of Diagnostic Techniques for ISHM Applications

System diagnosis is an integral part of any Integrated System Health Management application. Diagnostic applications make use of system information from the design phase, such as safety and mission assurance analysis, failure modes and effects analysis, hazards analysis, functional models, fault propagation models, and testability analysis. In modern process control and equipment monitoring systems, topological and analytic , models of the nominal system, derived from design documents, are also employed for fault isolation and identification. Depending on the complexity of the monitored signals from the physical system, diagnostic applications may involve straightforward trending and feature extraction techniques to retrieve the parameters of importance from the sensor streams. They also may involve very complex analysis routines, such as signal processing, learning or classification methods to derive the parameters of importance to diagnosis. The process that is used to diagnose anomalous conditions from monitored system signals varies widely across the different approaches to system diagnosis. Rule-based expert systems, case-based reasoning systems, model-based reasoning systems, learning systems, and probabilistic reasoning systems are examples of the many diverse approaches ta diagnostic reasoning. Many engineering disciplines have specific approaches to modeling, monitoring and diagnosing anomalous conditions. Therefore, there is no "one-size-fits-all" approach to building diagnostic and health monitoring capabilities for a system. For instance, the conventional approaches to diagnosing failures in rotorcraft applications are very different from those used in communications systems. Further, online and offline automated diagnostic applications are integrated into an operations framework with flight crews, flight controllers and maintenance teams. While the emphasis of this paper is automation of health management functions, striking the correct balance between automated and human-performed tasks is a vital concern.

Patterson-Hine, Ann↗

NASA NTRS2012

Developing the Next Generation Shell Buckling Design Factors and Technologies

NASA s Shell Buckling Knockdown Factor (SBKF) Project was established in the spring of 2007 by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) in collaboration with the Constellation Program and Exploration Systems Mission Directorate. The SBKF project has the current goal of developing less-conservative, robust shell buckling design factors (a.k.a. knockdown factors) and design and analysis technologies for light-weight stiffened metallic launch vehicle (LV) structures. Preliminary design studies indicate that implementation of these new knockdown factors can enable significant reductions in mass and mass-growth in these vehicles and can help mitigate some of NASA s LV development and performance risks. In particular, it is expected that the results from this project will help reduce the reliance on testing, provide high-fidelity estimates of structural performance, reliability, robustness, and enable increased payload capability. The SBKF project objectives and approach used to develop and validate new design technologies are presented, and provide a glimpse into the future of design of the next generation of buckling-critical launch vehicle structures.

Hilburger, Mark W.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Advanced Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Flight Dynamics; Interim Results and Challenges

As part of the NASA Vehicle Systems Safety Technologies (VSST), Assuring Safe and Effective Aircraft Control Under Hazardous Conditions (Technical Challenge #3), an effort is underway within Boeing Research and Technology (BR&T) to address Advanced Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification for Flight Dynamics (VSST1-7). The scope of the effort is to develop and evaluate advanced multidisciplinary flight dynamics modeling techniques, including integrated uncertainties, to facilitate higher fidelity response characterization of current and future aircraft configurations approaching and during loss-of-control conditions. This approach is to incorporate multiple flight dynamics modeling methods for aerodynamics, structures, and propulsion, including experimental, computational, and analytical. Also to be included are techniques for data integration and uncertainty characterization and quantification. This research shall introduce new and updated multidisciplinary modeling and simulation technologies designed to improve the ability to characterize airplane response in off-nominal flight conditions. The research shall also introduce new techniques for uncertainty modeling that will provide a unified database model comprised of multiple sources, as well as an uncertainty bounds database for each data source such that a full vehicle uncertainty analysis is possible even when approaching or beyond Loss of Control boundaries. Methodologies developed as part of this research shall be instrumental in predicting and mitigating loss of control precursors and events directly linked to causal and contributing factors, such as stall, failures, damage, or icing. The tasks will include utilizing the BR&T Water Tunnel to collect static and dynamic data to be compared to the GTM extended WT database, characterizing flight dynamics in off-nominal conditions, developing tools for structural load estimation under dynamic conditions, devising methods for integrating various modeling elements into a real-time simulation capability, generating techniques for uncertainty modeling that draw data from multiple modeling sources, and providing a unified database model that includes nominal plus increments for each flight condition. This paper presents status of testing in the BR&T water tunnel and analysis of the resulting data and efforts to characterize these data using alternative modeling methods. Program challenges and issues are also presented.

Hyde, David C.↗

DOE OSTI2015

An industrial application of the burnup credit including actinides and fission products for PWR UO{sub 2} used fuel transportation - 14590

Criticality safety analyses related to the transportation of PWR uranium oxide (UO{sub 2}) used fuel assemblies are usually performed under the fresh fuel assumption. This leads to huge safety margins, as the negative reactivity worth due to the irradiation of the assemblies is not taken into account. Since 1987, AREVA TN has been using a limited burnup credit method based on the sole consideration of major actinides and the use of a uniform axial burnup profile corresponding to the mean burnup at the 50 least-irradiated centimetres of the assembly. This method is quite limited today for some applications, due mainly to the increase of the fuel enrichment in PWR UO{sub 2} fuel assemblies. The strategy of AREVA TN to deal with high enriched PWR UO{sub 2} fuel assemblies and also to limit the increase of the neutron poison content in the new baskets' designs is to take benefit from the reactivity reserve, which can be gained by considering main fission products and less penalizing axial burnup profiles instead of uniform axial burnup profiles. The Burnup Credit (BUC) calculation route for PWR UO{sub 2} used fuel is based on the connection of the depletion code DARWIN (developed by the CEA) and the Criticality Safety Package CRISTAL V1 (developed by the CEA and the IRSN in partnership with AREVA and EDF). French BUC experimental programs have been also separately performed in Cadarache and in Valduc in order to validate respectively the APOLLO2-DARWIN2 depletion code and the CRISTAL V1 Criticality Safety package. This paper presents the BUC methodology including actinides and fission products but also the approach used for the criticality safety assessment of representative transport cask loaded with PWR UO{sub 2} used fuel assemblies approved for the first time by the French Safety Competent Authority. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Observation and Modeling of Dynamic Fracture Behaviors of Battery Cell Under Impact Loading Using Enhanced Representative Volume Element Concept

The burgeoning electric automobile industry has increased interest in battery safety. Battery cells experience significant mechanical stress during operation, including the impact of accidents and vibrations from driving. The potential for thermal runaway reactions in battery cells raises safety concerns. Although numerous researchers have defined the dynamic behavior of battery cells and proposed numerical models to describe it, few studies have focused on the high-strain rate mechanical impact phase correlated with the onset of fracture. In this study, we describe the dynamic behavior of pouch battery cells and propose a modeling method to study their mechanical failure under impact situations. Impact tests are conducted at various velocities and heights. To overcome numerical issues commonly encountered under rapid deformation scenarios, a new finite element model is developed based on the representative volume element model. The proposed approach efficiently simulates continuous crack propagation and brittleness behavior during impact by permitting the individual behavior of the cell components. Therefore, engineers can reliably design safer electric vehicle battery cells by measuring the properties of the cell components.

ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2018

Metallurgical aspects influencing the resistance to steam oxidation and fracture toughness of select advanced replacement alloys for LWR core internals

Life extension of the existing nuclear reactors imposes accumulated damages, such as higher fluences and longer period of corrosion, to structural materials, which would result in significant challenges to the traditional reactor materials such as type 304 and 316 stainless steels. Advanced alloys with superior radiation resistance will increase safety margins, design flexibility, and economics for not only the life extension of the existing fleet but also new builds with advanced reactor designs. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) teamed up with Department of Energy (DOE) to initiate the Advanced Radiation Resistant Materials (ARRM) program, aiming to develop and test degradation resistant alloys from current commercial alloy specifications by 2021 to a new advanced alloy with superior degradation resistance in light water reactor (LWR)-relevant environments by 2024. Corrosion resistance in water environment is one of the fundamental properties required for LWR core internal materials. High-temperature steam oxidation tests are not only an accelerated life testing method to uncover potential failure modes in a short period of time, but also an approach to evaluate materials’ resistance to accidental scenarios. Coupons, prepared from fourteen candidate alloys that were selected under the ARRM program, were exposed to 1 bar full steam with ~10 part-per-billion oxygen content at 600 and 650°C for up to 5,000 h, which were weighed at 500-h intervals. Ni-base superalloys are an important class of alloys for reactor applications. Alloys 690, 725, and X- 750 were three of the selected Ni-base superalloys exposed to the steam tests. This report summarizes the metallurgical aspects, such as alloy thermodynamics and the nature of the oxides and the diffusivities of primary elements, and their effects on oxidation behavior of the three alloys. In addition to monitoring mass change, microstructures of the 5000h-exposed samples of alloys 690, 725, and X-750 were characterized using scanning and transmission electron microscopy and energy dispersive x-ray spectroscopy. Together with thermodynamic calculations, the scale constitution and its exfoliation behavior were discussed. Based on experimental and theoretical values, a new model was proposed to quantitatively estimate the metal thickness loss of the alloys. Alloy X-750 was found to have the best resistance to steam oxidation with the least metal thickness loss (<1 μm), which were slightly superior to alloy 690. Alloy 725 exhibited the worst resistance to steam oxidation with the greatest metal thickness loss, e.g., ~2.5 μm at 650°C, which is nearly three times of the metal thickness losses of alloys 690 and X-750 at 650°C. The greatest metal thickness loss of alloy 725 might be attributable to its high Mo content. Photos of the fracture toughness tested samples of eight alloys are presented, which will be correlated with their fracture toughness results and planned tensile test results to select representative alloy samples for detailed microstructural characterization to reveal their microstructure and properties relationships.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA NTRS2005

Lunar/Mars Surface Habitat Mockups Project

Surface habitats play a centric role with respect to integration of the crew operations and supporting surface systems for external operations on the moon and Mars. Up to now the only planetary surface habitat NASA has ever developed is the 2-person, 3-day duration Lunar Module from the 1960 s-era Apollo Program. Today s National Vision for Space Exploration pushes far beyond the safety, performance and operational requirements of the Lunar Module, and NASA needs to develop a basis for making habitat design decisions Experience has shown that using mockups very early in a project s life cycle is extremely beneficial, providing data that influences requirements for human design, volumetrics, functionality, systems hardware and operations. Evaluating and comparing a variety of habitat configurations will provide NASA with a cost-effective basis for trades to support lunar and Martian habitat design selection. This paper describes the NASA project that recently has been created to undertake the development and evaluation of a series of planetary surface habitat mockups. This project is in direct response to the Advanced Space Platforms and Systems (ASPS) Element Program s request for novel systems approaches for robust and reconfigurable habitation systems.

Tri, Terry O.↗

DOE OSTI2024

FEED Study of CarbonCapture Inc DAC and CarbonCure Utilization Technologies Using United States Steel’s Gary Works Plant Waste Heat (Final Report)

The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) led this project to produce a front-end engineering design (FEED) study of an advanced Direct Air Capture and Utilization System (DACUS) system that can remove a minimum of 5,000 tonnes/yr net of carbon dioxide from air (based on cradle-to-gate LCA) and utilizing the CO 2 to produce low carbon intensity ready mix concrete. The designed system, if built, would be larger than any currently existing Direct Air Capture (DAC) collector in the U.S. Such carbon capture technologies are critical to meeting the goals of the DOE’s program to accelerate climate-critical technology. In addition to the power sector, industrial facilities for the manufacture of steel and cement/concrete are among the major sources of anthropogenic CO 2 . DAC is a promising new technology for reducing CO 2 , a potent greenhouse gas, in the atmosphere but is expensive, in part due to the energy required to adsorb and desorb captured CO 2 during cycles. By integrating CarbonCapture Inc. (CCI) DAC modules at United States Steel's Gary Works (USS) and utilizing the site's waste heat, energy, and location this project evaluates the feasibility of utilizing the captured CO 2 and the logistics of transportation. CarbonCapture Inc. has developed an innovative DAC system using novel adsorbents to cost-effectively capture CO 2 . The captured, liquified gas will be trucked to ready-mix concrete plants within the region, the closest of which is approximately 3.5 miles away, where CarbonCure will inject it into concrete during the mixing process at the facilities. The carbon dioxide reacts with concrete, mineralizing into calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ), permanently locking the greenhouse gas into the matrix of the building material. This FEED study demonstrated a full CO 2 value chain for DACUS from industrial facilities. It also provided a means for Visage Energy Corp. (Visage) to assess the impact of this holistic approach on job creation, regional economic impact, and environmental justice. The project team also included Sargent & Lundy (S&L) to provide the constructability review and costing of the integration of the DAC with the steel plant. Ecotek Engineering USA, LLC designed the outside battery limit (OSBL) infrastructure to connect the DAC and the plant. Activities performed during the project included: (1) Project Management Plan; (2) Technology Maturation Plan (TMP); (3) Initial Workforce Readiness Plan; (4) Workforce Readiness Plan; (5) Front-End Engineering Design (FEED) Study; (6) Project Design Basis; (7) Hazards and Operability (HAZOP) Study; (8) Constructability Review; (9) Project Cost Assessment; (10) Logistics Analysis of CO 2 Transportation to the Utilization Site; (11) Business Case Analysis; (12) Life Cycle Analysis (LCA); (13) Environmental Health and Safety (EH&S) Analysis; (14) Environmental Justice Analysis; and (15) Economic Revitalization and Job Creation Outcomes Analysis. This report provides a summary of the outcomes and results of the project, which was performed between Oct. 1, 2022, through Sept. 30, 2024.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

The development and use of decision support framework for informing selection of select agent toxins with modelling studies to inform permissible toxin amounts

Many countries have worked diligently to establish and implement policies and processes to regulate high consequence pathogens and toxins that could have a significant public health impact if misused. In the United States, the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996 (Public Law 104-132, 1996), as amended by the Bioterrorism Preparedness and Response Act of 2002 (Public Law 107-188, 2002) requires that the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) [through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)] establish a list of bacteria, viruses, and toxins that have the potential to pose a severe threat to public health and safety. Currently, this list is reviewed and updated on a biennial basis using input from subject matter experts (SMEs). We have developed decision support framework (DSF) approaches to facilitate selection of select toxins and, where toxicity data are known, conducted modelling studies to inform selection of toxin amounts that should be excluded from select agent regulations. Exclusion limits allow laboratories to possess toxins under an established limit to support their research or teaching activities without the requirement to register with the Federal Select Agent Program. Fact sheets capturing data from a previously vetted SME workshop convened by CDC, literature review and SME input were developed to assist in evaluating toxins using the DSF approach. The output of the DSF analysis agrees with the current select toxin designations, and no other toxins evaluated in this study were recommended for inclusion on the select agent and toxin list. To inform the selection of exclusion limits, attack scenarios were developed to estimate the amount of toxin needed to impact public health. Scenarios consisted of simulated aerosol releases of a toxin in high-population-density public facilities and the introduction of a toxin into a daily consumable product supply chain. Using published inhalation and ingestion median toxic dose (TD 50 ) and median lethal dose (LD 50 ) values, where available, a range of toxin amounts was examined to estimate the number of people exposed to these amounts in these scenarios. Based on data generated by these models, we proposed toxin exclusion values corresponding to levels below those that would trigger a significant public health response (i.e., amounts estimated to expose up to ten people by inhalation or one hundred people by ingestion to LD 50 or TD 50 levels of toxin in the modeled scenarios).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1985

Crystalline-silicon reliability lessons for thin-film modules

The reliability of crystalline silicon modules has been brought to a high level with lifetimes approaching 20 years, and excellent industry credibility and user satisfaction. The transition from crystalline modules to thin film modules is comparable to the transition from discrete transistors to integrated circuits. New cell materials and monolithic structures will require new device processing techniques, but the package function and design will evolve to a lesser extent. Although there will be new encapsulants optimized to take advantage of the mechanical flexibility and low temperature processing features of thin films, the reliability and life degradation stresses and mechanisms will remain mostly unchanged. Key reliability technologies in common between crystalline and thin film modules include hot spot heating, galvanic and electrochemical corrosion, hail impact stresses, glass breakage, mechanical fatigue, photothermal degradation of encapsulants, operating temperature, moisture sorption, circuit design strategies, product safety issues, and the process required to achieve a reliable product from a laboratory prototype.

Ross, R. G., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Integration of Advanced Concepts and Vehicles Into the Next Generation Air Transportation System: Introduction, Key Messages, and Vehicle Attributes - Volume 1

Raytheon, in partnership with NASA, is leading the way in ensuring that the future air transportation continues to be a key driver of economic growth and stability and that this system provides an environmentally friendly, safe, and effective means of moving people and goods. A Raytheon-led team of industry and academic experts, under NASA contract NNA08BA47C, looked at the potential issues and impact of introducing four new classes of advanced aircraft into the next generation air transportation system -- known as NextGen. The study will help determine where NASA should further invest in research to support the safe introduction of these new air vehicles. Small uncrewed or unmanned aerial systems (SUAS), super heavy transports (SHT) including hybrid wing body versions (HWB), very light jets (VLJ), and supersonic business jets (SSBJ) are the four classes of aircraft that we studied. Understanding each vehicle's business purpose and strategy is critical to assessing the feasibility of new aircraft operations and their impact on NextGen's architecture. The Raytheon team used scenarios created by aviation experts that depict vehicles in year 2025 operations along with scripts or use cases to understand the issues presented by these new types of vehicles. The information was then mapped into the Joint Planning and Development Office's (JPDO s) Enterprise Architecture to show how the vehicles will fit into NextGen's Concept of Operations. The team also identified significant changes to the JPDO's Integrated Work Plan (IWP) to optimize the NextGen vision for these vehicles. Using a proven enterprise architecture approach and the JPDO s Joint Planning Environment (JPE) web site helped make the leap from architecture to planning efficient, manageable and achievable. Very Light Jets flying into busy hub airports -- Supersonic Business Jets needing to climb and descend rapidly to achieve the necessary altitude Super-heavy cargo planes requiring the shortest common flight path -- are just a few of the potential new operations in the future National Airspace System. To assess the impact of these new scenarios on overall national airspace operations, the Raytheon team used the capabilities of a suite of tools such as NASA's Airspace Concepts Evaluation System (ACES), the Flight Optimization System (FLOPS), FAA's Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), Intelligent Automations Kinematic Trajectory Generator (KTG) and the Aviation Safety Risk Model (ASRM). Detailed metroplex modeling, surface delay models for super heavy transports, prioritized routing and corridors for supersonics business jets, and VLJ demand models are some of the models developed by the Raytheon team to study the effect of operating these new vehicles in the future NAS. Using this suite of models, several trade studies were conducted to evaluate these effects in terms of delays, equity in access, safety, and the environment. Looking at the impact of each vehicle, a number of critical issues were identified. The Raytheon team concluded that strict compliance to NextGen's 4-dimensional trajectory (4DT) management will be required to accommodate these vehicles unique operations and increased number of flights in the future air space system. The next section provides a discussion of this and the other key findings from our study.

Zellweger, Andres↗

DOE OSTI2016

A Solid of Revolution Time Study using COG11.1 and MCNP6.1

The performance of two continuous energy Monte Carlo transport codes, COG11.1 and MCNP6.1, has been compared for the {sup 239}Pu Jezebel Benchmark using cross sections based on the ENDF/B-VII.1 evaluated nuclear data library. The purpose of this study is to determine the length of time it takes each code to complete a series of criticality calculations, using two different methods to model a solid of revolution. A solid of revolution is essential in many fields of engineering and mathematics, and has been a standard feature in computer-aided design and manufacturing since the 1970's. In the field of criticality safety, a solid of revolution can be used to reproduce and simplify complex engineering drawings and systems that would otherwise require excessive use of geometric primitives and computational resources to achieve a comparable level of fidelity. There are two basic methods to model a solid of revolution: Method 1 (COG) specifies a set of x-y pairs or polar coordinates and rotate the curve about the x-axis. Method 2 (COG and MCNP) creates a set of end-to-end conical frustums and/or cylinders. Method 1 is only available in COG and can be implemented using one surface and sector specification. Method 2 can be implemented in both COG and MCNP. This time study was initially conceived as a result of criticality safety analysis performed for a complex system with a high degree of rotational symmetry. Each COG input deck typically took 1-2 days to run in serial mode. COG input decks were then converted to MCNP format and run on the same computer cluster. Instead of expected 1-2 day runtimes, it took MCNP6.1 more than one week to complete each run. Since MCNP typically runs faster than many codes, these lengthy runtimes were considered unusual. This study attempts to investigate the runtime discrepancy between the two codes. The methods and benchmark in this time study were selected to provide a consistent, generalized approach to modeling an arbitrary solid of revolution. While there are many different ways to model the {sup 239}Pu Jezebel Benchmark, the focus of this study is on investigating the practical difference between the two basic methods to model a surface of revolution. Throughout this study, the only code that maintains reasonably low runtimes is COG11.1 (Method 1). Based on the observed performance of each code and method, it is likely that the divergent runtimes are the result of tracking particles across planes that lie between conical frustums, as opposed to defining the object boundary as a single surface. Slight fluctuations in graphed results were also observed, due to random sampling and CPU loading. This was confirmed by re-running input decks and comparing average runtimes to a preliminary curve fit. From the perspective of a criticality safety analyst, the results of this study are expected to contribute towards understanding one of the practical trade-offs between codes and methods as they apply to real-world analysis. Ultimately, it's about choosing the right tool for the job.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Anomaly Detection in Electronic Health Records Across Hospital Networks: Integrating Machine Learning With Graph Algorithms

In a large hospital system, a network of hospitals relies on electronic health records (EHRs) to make informed decisions regarding their patients in various clinical domains. Consequently, the dependability of the health information technology (HIT) systems responsible for collecting EHR data is of utmost importance for patient safety. Recently, novel methods and tools aimed at identifying anomalies in EHR data to bolster the reliability of HIT systems have been introduced. However, these existing methods and tools primarily concentrate on individual hospitals, which limits our understanding of system-wide anomalous events and their potential impact on patient safety across multiple hospitals. In this article, we introduce a new approach to detecting anomalies in EHR data within a network of hospitals. This is achieved by combining advanced machine learning techniques with graph algorithms to create a tool capable of swiftly identifying and responding to deviations. Our proposed approach employs a combination of five machine learning models, harnessing the unique strengths of each model to provide a more robust detection system. The detected anomalies are then represented as graphs, allowing us to recognize patterns across the hospital network. This aids in identifying anomalies that span multiple medical facilities, potentially indicating broader system-level risks. Extensive real-world testing of our approach demonstrated its ability to offer actionable insights compared to existing methods. Additionally, its scalable design ensures seamless integration into existing HIT infrastructures.

Niu, Haoran [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL),↗