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At least 1,333 records · Page 74

An upward looking airborne millimeter wave radiometer for atmospheric water vapor sounding and rain detection

A 90/180 GHz multichannel radiometer is currently under development for NASA's 1985 Hurricane Mission onboard the Convair 990 research aircraft. The radiometer will be a fixed beam instrument with dual corrugated horns and a common lens antenna designed to operate simultaneously at 90 and 180 GHz. The all solid state front-end will contain three double side band data channels at 90 + or - 3 GHz, 180 + or - 3 GHz, and 180 + or - 7 GHz. The airborne radiometer will mount in a window port on the CV-990 and will maintain a fixed beam view approximately 14 degrees off zenith. The radiometer design is a Dicke chopper arrangement selected to achieve maximum absolute temperature accuracy and minimum brightness temperature sensitivity. Analog outputs of the three data channels will be calibrated dc voltages representing the observed radiometric brightness temperatures over the selected integration time.

Gagliano, J. A.↗

Test images for the maximum entropy image restoration method

One of the major activities of any experimentalist is data analysis and reduction. In solar physics, remote observations are made of the sun in a variety of wavelengths and circumstances. In no case is the data collected free from the influence of the design and operation of the data gathering instrument as well as the ever present problem of noise. The presence of significant noise invalidates the simple inversion procedure regardless of the range of known correlation functions. The Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) attempts to perform this inversion by making minimal assumptions about the data. To provide a means of testing the MEM and characterizing its sensitivity to noise, choice of point spread function, type of data, etc., one would like to have test images of known characteristics that can represent the type of data being analyzed. A means of reconstructing these images is presented.

Mackey, James E.↗

Improved instrumental magnitude prediction expected from version 2 of the NASA SKY2000 master star catalog

The SKY2000 Master Star Catalog (MC), Version 2 and its predecessors have been designed to provide the basic astronomical input data needed for satellite acquisition and attitude determination on NASA spacecraft. Stellar positions and proper motions are the primary MC data required for operations support followed closely by the stellar brightness observed in various standard astronomical passbands. The instrumental red-magnitude prediction subsystem (REDMAG) in the MMSCAT software package computes the expected instrumental color index (CI) [sensor color correction] from an observed astronomical stellar magnitude in the MC and the characteristics of the stellar spectrum, astronomical passband, and sensor sensitivity curve. The computation is more error prone the greater the mismatch of the sensor sensitivity curve characteristics and those of the observed astronomical passbands. This paper presents the preliminary performance analysis of a typical red-sensitive CCDST during acquisition of sensor data from the two Ball CT-601 ST's onboard the Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE). A comparison is made of relative star positions measured in the ST FOV coordinate system with the expected results computed from the recently released Tycho Catalogue. The comparison is repeated for a group of observed stars with nearby, bright neighbors in order to determine the tracker behavior in the presence of an interfering, near neighbor (NN). The results of this analysis will be used to help define a new photoelectric photometric instrumental sensor magnitude system (S) that is based on several thousand bright star magnitudes observed with the PXTE ST's. This new system will be implemented in Version 2 of the SKY2000 MC to provide improved predicted magnitudes in the mission run catalogs.

Sande, C. B.↗

Transport Estimations of Final State Interaction Effects on Short-range Correlation Studies Using the $(e,e'p)$ and $(e,e'pp)$ Reactions

Short range correlated (SRC) nucleon-nucleon pairs in nuclei are typically studied using measurements of electron-induced hard nucleon-knockout reactions (e.g. $(e,e'p)$ and $(e,e'pN)$), where the kinematics of the knocked-out nucleons are used to infer their initial state prior to the interaction. The validity of this inference relies on our understanding of the scattering reaction, most importantly how rescattering of the detected nucleons (final state interactions or FSI) distort their kinematical distributions. Recent SRC measurements on medium to heavy nuclei have been performed at high-$x_B$ (i.e., anti-parallel kinematics) where calculations of light nuclei indicate that such distortion effects are small. Here we study the impact of FSI on recent $^{12}$C$(e,e'p)$ and $^{12}$C$(e,e'pp)$ measurements using a transport approach. We find that while FSI can significantly distort the measured kinematical distributions of SRC breakup events, selecting high-$x_B$ anti-parallel events strongly suppresses such distortions. In addition, including the effects of FSI improves the agreement between Generalized Contact Formalism-based calculations and data and can help identify those observables that have minimal sensitivity to FSI effects. This result helps confirm the interpretation of experimental data in terms of initial-state momentum distributions and provides a new tool for the study of SRCs using lepton-scattering reactions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Deep Search for Decaying Dark Matter with XMM-Newton Blank-Sky Observations

Sterile neutrinos with masses in the keV range are well-motivated extensions to the Standard Model that could explain the observed neutrino masses while also making up the dark matter (DM) of the universe. If sterile neutrinos are DM then they may slowly decay into active neutrinos and photons, giving rise to the possibility of their detection through narrow spectral features in astrophysical x-ray data sets. Here, we perform the most sensitive search to date for this and other decaying DM scenarios across the mass range from 5 to 16 keV using archival XMM-Newton data. We reduce 547 Ms of data from both the MOS and PN instruments using observations taken across the full sky and then use this data to search for evidence of DM decay in the ambient halo of the Milky Way. We determine the instrumental and astrophysical baselines with data taken far away from the Galactic Center, and use Gaussian process modeling to capture additional continuum background contributions. No evidence is found for unassociated x-ray lines, leading us to produce the strongest constraints to date on decaying DM in this mass range.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Simple and Multiple Endmember Mixture Analysis in the Boreal Forest

A key scientific objective of the original Boreal Ecosystem-Atmospheric Study (BOREAS) field campaign (1993-1996) was to obtain the baseline data required for modeling and predicting fluxes of energy, mass, and trace gases in the boreal forest biome. These data sets are necessary to determine the sensitivity of the boreal forest biome to potential climatic changes and potential biophysical feedbacks on climate. A considerable volume of remotely sensed and supporting field data were acquired by numerous researchers to meet this objective. By design, remote sensing and modeling were considered critical components for scaling efforts, extending point measurements from flux towers and field sites over larger spatial and longer temporal scales. A major focus of the BOREAS Follow-on program was concerned with integrating the diverse remotely sensed and ground-based data sets to address specific questions such as carbon dynamics at local to regional scales.

Roberts, Dar A.↗

Assessing the Needs of NASA's Near Real-Time Earth Observation Products

"The 2017-2027 Decadal Survey for Earth Science and Applications from Space stated that NASA's Earth Science with planned implementation of applications provides sustained earth observations for societal benefits [1]. The Decadal Survey indicated that data latency is invaluable for time-sensitive applications including disaster risk reduction, wildland fire carbon emissions quantification, real-time measurements of the state of the hydrologic systems and many more. Data latency refers to the time between earth observation and data products available to users. During the past 13 years, NASA's Land, Atmosphere Near Real-Time Capability for Earth Observing Systems (LANCE) continues to provide free access to earth observation products that are made available much quicker than routine processing allows. The latency of most LANCE data products is Near Real-time (NRT) which is defined as less than three hours from satellite observations [2]. LANCE is managed by the Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS) Project at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center [3], and a User Working Group (UWG) is responsible for providing guidance to LANCE. LANCE data are used by direct users and brokers who add value to the data [4]. NASA Earth Applied Sciences Program (ASP) is one of the primary users of LANCE, which collaborates with partner organizations and provides support to scientists to solve problems in applications of earth observations. ASP promotes the use of LANCE NRT data products to demonstrate applications in decision making, facilitates end-user feedback to the science team to improve data products, and provides information on future demands for research. LANCE supports applications that need a rapid response including detecting wildland fires and volcanic eruptions, tracking smoke, ash and dust plumes, monitoring air quality and tracking extreme weather events such as hurricanes, landslides, and floods. To gather feedback regarding the availability, accessibility and actionability of NASA's NRT data products for societal benefit, three surveys and a few discussions with experts involved in the topic within ASP were conducted from the perspective of users. Feedback has been collected from users who are interested in using low latency NASA data within application communities of agriculture, disasters, water resources, health and air quality, ecological conservation, wildland fires and capacity building. Analysis-ready NRT data products in a variety of formats have been mentioned many times in the collected feedback, especially for applied users with little to no experience using research-grade earth observation products. Users prefer to have products that can be easily integrated into their existing workflows and take their analysis to the data. HDF5 is a commonly used data format for research, but typically requires some conversion to a more friendly format for applications and regular use in decision-making. Users prefer the GeoTIFF data format that can be directly ingested into a GIS mapping software and platform for data analysis and visualization. For example, LANCE’s fire, flood, SO2 and Black Marble Nighttime Blue/Yellow Composite data products have been integrated into NASA Disasters Mapping Portal, which is an GIS-based open data portal, for users in the disaster management community. There are 291 LANCE NRT layers available through GIBS and Worldview, where users can download a snapshot in GeoTIFF format. Operational users expect data to be processed as close to the user as possible. The collected feedback indicates that LANCE fire products within 3 hours latency would meet the needs of the wildland fire community. The ideal latency for volcanic application is 10-15 minutes. Users in Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC) reported that the first forecast volcanic product should be issued within 75 minutes from the volcano eruption [5]. Overall, for disaster applications, data latency within 3 hours is useful while latency greater than 12 hours is not timely enough for operational use. Capacity building and training are critical for users to be able to access, interpret and use data products and tools for their decision making, especially for applied users with limited experience using earth observation products. LANCE data products have been used in a number of capacity building projects domestically and internationally [6]. As LANCE continues to bring new products into the system, users request training to utilize LANCE new and upcoming data products and capabilities in their applications. Due to the limitation of bandwidth and downstream flow paths, users in some developing countries need tools to select and download data for a specific area of interest instead of bulk downloads. The collected feedback also shows the lack of available SAR satellite low latency data products. The advantages of SAR to monitor conditions and changes on the ground through darkness, clouds, volcanic ash, and other atmospheric conditions, are appealing to low latency users. For example, terabytes of low latency but cloudy optical images are not helpful in rapidly identifying the extent of flood or fire impacts. LANCE could be complemented with low latency measurements via the upcoming NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR) mission [7]. Requests for higher spatial resolution products are expressed. A user from the wildland fire management community reported that products with 30-m spatial resolution could be used to detect small fires. The 30-m Landsat OLI fire data is now part of NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) US/Canada [8]. Within the open and free NASA resources, LANCE disseminates NRT data products in a manner that allows them to be accessible and understandable to both scientific and applied users. In many application areas, latency plays an important or even decisive role where low latency earth observations help people to observe areas of interest, detect and track changes in the environment and make timely decisions. NASA’s Earth Applied Sciences Program promotes the use of LANCE NRT products and builds a bridge between application users and research teams. The collected feedback indicates data latency within 3 hours is useful for most of the applications, and shows the needs of user-friendly, analysis-ready products, and requests training on LANCE’s new and upcoming data products. User feedback has been provided to LANCE UWG for guidance and recommendations, and for translating findings into something actionable.

Tian Yao↗

In situ Synchrotron X‐ray Metrology Boosted by Automated Data Analysis for Real‐time Monitoring of Cathode Calcination

Abstract Synchrotron X‐ray‐based in situ metrology is advantageous for monitoring the synthesis of battery materials, offering high throughput, high spatial and temporal resolution, and chemical sensitivity. However, the rapid generation of massive data poses a challenge to on‐site, on‐the‐fly analysis needed for real‐time process monitoring. Here, a weighted lagged cross‐correlation (WLCC) similarity approach is presented for automated data analysis, which merges with in situ synchrotron X‐ray diffraction metrology to monitor the calcination process of the archetypal nickel‐based cathode, LiNiO 2 . The WLCC approach, incorporating variables that account for peak shifts and width changes associated with structural transformations, enables rapid extraction of phase progression within 10 seconds from tens of diffraction patterns. Details are captured, from initial precursors to intermediates and the final layered LiNiO 2 , providing information for agile on‐site adjustments during experiments and complementing post hoc diffraction analysis by offering insights into early‐stage phase nucleation and growth. Expanding this data‐powered platform paves the way for real time calcination process monitoring and control, which is pivotal to quality control in battery cathode manufacturing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Integral nuclear data validation using experimental spent nuclear fuel compositions

Measurements of the isotopic contents of spent nuclear fuel provide experimental data that are a prerequisite for validating computer codes and nuclear data for many spent fuel applications. Under the auspices of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and guidance of the Expert Group on Assay Data of Spent Nuclear Fuel of the NEA Working Party on Nuclear Criticality Safety, a new database of expanded spent fuel isotopic compositions has been compiled. The database, Spent Fuel Compositions (SFCOMPO) 2.0, includes measured data for more than 750 fuel samples acquired from 44 different reactors and representing eight different reactor technologies. Measurements for more than 90 isotopes are included. This new database provides data essential for establishing the reliability of code systems for inventory predictions, but it also has broader potential application to nuclear data evaluation. Furthermore, the database, together with adjoint based sensitivity and uncertainty tools for transmutation systems developed to quantify the importance of nuclear data on nuclide concentrations, are described.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Interferometric estimation of ice sheet motion and topography

With ERS-1/2 satellite radar interferometry, it is possible to make measurements of glacier motion with high accuracy and fine spatial resolution. Interferometric techniques were applied to map velocity and topography for several outlet glaciers in Greenland. For the Humboldt and Petermann glaciers, data from several adjacent tracks were combined to make a wide-area map that includes the enhanced flow regions of both glaciers. The discharge flux of the Petermann glacier upstream of the grounding line was estimated, thereby establishing the potential use of ERS-1/2 interferometric data for monitoring ice-sheet discharge. Interferograms collected along a single track are sensitive to only one component of motion. By utilizing data from ascending and descending passes and by making a surface-parallel flow assumption, it is possible to measure the full three-dimensional vector flow field. The application of this technique for an area on the Ryder glacier is demonstrated. Finally, ERS-1/2 interferograms were used to observe a mini-surge on the Ryder glacier that occurred in autumn of 1995.

Joughlin, Ian↗

Friction Stir Weld Inspection Through Conductivity Imaging Using Shaped Field MWM(TM)-Arrays

Friction Stir Welds (FSW) of A1 2195-T8 and A1 2219-T8, provided by Lockheed Martin Michoud Operations, were inspected for lack-of-penetration (LOP) defects using a custom designed MWM-Array, a multi-element eddy-current sensor. MWM electrical conductivity mapping demonstrated high sensitivity to LOP as small as 0.75 mm (0.03 in.), as confirmed by metallographic data that characterized the extent of LOP defects. High sensitivity and high spatial resolution was achieved via a 37-element custom designed MWM-Array allowing LOP detection using the normalized longitudinal component of the MWM measured conductivity. This permitted both LOP detection and correlation of MWM conductivity features with the LOP defect size, as changes in conductivity were apparently associated with metallurgical features within the near-surface layer of the LOP defect zone. MWM conductivity mapping reveals information similar to macroetching as the MWM-Array is sensitive to small changes in conductivity due to changes in microstructure associated with material thermal processing, in this case welding. The electrical conductivity measured on the root side of FSWs varies across the weld due to microstructural differences introduced by the FSW process, as well as those caused by planar flaws. Weld metal, i.e., dynamically recrystallized zone (DXZ), thermomechanically affected zone (TMZ), heat-affected zone (HAZ), and parent metal (PM) are all evident in the conductivity maps. While prior efforts had met with limited success for NDE of dissimilar alloy, A12219 to A12195 FSW, the new custom designed multi-element MWM-Array achieved detection of all LOP defects even in dissimilar metal welds.

Goldfine, Neil↗

Friction Stir Weld Inspection Through Conductivity Imaging Using Shaped Field MWM(Registered Trademark) - Arrays

Friction Stir Welds (FSW) of Al 2195-T8 and Al 2219-T8, provided by Lockheed Martin Michoud Operations, were inspected for lack-of-penetration (LOP) defects using a custom designed MWM-Array, a multi-element eddy-current sensor. MWM (registered trademark) electrical conductivity mapping demonstrated high sensitivity to LOP as small as 0.75 mm (0.03 in.), as confirmed by metallographic data that characterized the extent of LOP defects. High sensitivity and high spatial resolution was achieved via a 37-element custom designed MWM-Array allowing LOP detection using the normalized longitudinal component of the MWM measured conductivity. This permitted both LOP detection and correlation of MWM conductivity features with the LOP defect size, as changes in conductivity were apparently associated with metallurgical features within the near-surface layer of the LOP defect zone. MWM conductivity mapping reveals information similar to macro-etching as the MWM-Array is sensitive to small changes in conductivity due to changes in microstructure associated with material thermal processing, in this case welding. The electrical conductivity measured on the root side of FSWs varies across the weld due to microstructural differences introduced by the FSW process, as well as those caused by planar flaws. Weld metal, i.e., dynamically recrystallized zone (DXZ), thermomechanically affected zone (TMZ), heat-affected zone (HAZ), and parent metal (PM) are all evident in the conductivity maps. While prior efforts had met with limited success for NDE (Nondestructive Evaluation) of dissimilar alloy, Al2219 to Al2195 FSW, the new custom designed multi-element MWM-Array achieved detection of all LOP defects even in dissimilar metal welds.

Goldfine, Neil↗

Spectral Polarization Distribution Models (PDMs) for NASA CLARREO Pathfinder’s Inter-Calibration Applications

Solar radiation scattered by Earth surfaces of various scene types such as oceans, deserts, tree leaves etc and atmospheric molecules and particles is polarized and the amount of polarization depends on the surface composition and particle physical properties. This can be a source of measurement errors in satellite data if a non-polarimetric radiometric sensor is sensitive to the polarization state of light. To obtain highly accurate spectral solar radiation data from the Earth-atmosphere system for the space-borne inter-calibration studies as proposed in NASA's Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission and the CLARREO Pathfinder (CPF) mission, the spectral polarization state of the reflected solar light at the top of atmosphere (TOA) must be known with sufficient accuracy. The degree of polarization (DOP) and the angle of linear polarization (AOLP) of the light at the TOA as functions of incident and viewing geometry and scene type construct the Polarization Distribution Models (PDMs) for correction of polarization-induced error of satellite data. In this work, algorithms for modeling the spectral polarization state of reflected sunlight from various types of Earth, including oceans, deserts, vegetated land surfaces and these scene types with all kinds of clouds, are developed. By comparing the model results with the PARASOL satellite data, our numerical results demonstrate that the model can provide a reliable approach for making the spectral PDMs for wavelengths between 320 and 2300 nm for satellite inter-calibration applications as proposed in the CLARREO and the CLARREO CPF missions.

Sun, Wenbo↗

Assessment of Retrieved GMI Emissivity Over Land, Snow, and Sea Ice in the GEOS System

Directly assimilating microwave radiances over land, snow and sea ice remains a significant challenge for data assimilation systems. These data assimilation systems are critical to the success of global numerical weather prediction systems including the Global Earth Observing System-Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (GEOS-ADAS). Extending more surface sensitive microwave channels over land, snow and ice could provide a needed source of data for Numerical Weather Prediction particularly in the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). Unfortunately, the accuracy of emissivity models currently available within the GEOS-ADAS along with other data assimilation systems are insufficient to simulate and assimilate radiances. Recently, Munchak et al. (2020) published a 5-year climatological database for retrieved microwave emissivity from the GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) aboard the Global Precipitation Mission (GPM). In this work the database is utilized by modifying the GEOS-ADAS to use this emissivity database in place of the default emissivity value available in the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM), which is the fast radiative transfer model used by the GEOS-ADAS. As a first step, the GEOS-ADAS is run in a so-called “stand-alone” mode to simulate radiances from GMI using the default CRTM emissivity, and replacing the default CRTM emissivity models with values from Munchak et al, 2020. The simulated observations using Munchak et al., 2020 agree more closely with observations from GMI. These results are presented along with a discussion of the implication for GMI observations within the GEOS-ADAS.

GPM↗

Performance Assessments of the SNPP and N20 VIIRS DNB Using Observations of Bright Stars

The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on-board the Suomi-NPP (SNPP) and NOAA-20 (N20) spacecrafts is a multi-spectral Earth-observing instrument with spectral channels ranging from the visible to the long-wave infrared. In addition to these spectral channels, the VIIRS instrument features a panchromatic Day/Night band (DNB) with 3 gain stages (low, mid, and high) which allows for Earth-view (EV) radiance retrievals over 7 orders of magnitude. The DNB is able to collect data ranging from dim city lights during nighttime up to reflected sunlight from cloud-tops during daytime. The DNB data collection is divided into 32 aggregation modes, where sub-pixel aggregation is used to maintain a nearly constant pixel footprint on ground during EV data collection throughout each scan. The DNB is also sensitive enough to observe bright stars through the instrument space-view (SV) port. Data from these bright stars can be used to track the temporal stability of the sensor gain and as a method of intercomparison between the two VIIRS instruments. In this work, we will present several sensor performance assessments of the VIIRS DNB using stars. In addition to the sensor gain trending, these assessments will include a comparison of the differences between the daytime and nighttime data due to the effects of stray-light, a comparison of the measured signal as a function of aggregation mode, a comparison between the two high-gain sub-stages, and half-angle mirror side for both the SNPP and N20 VIIRS DNB.

VIIRS↗

How robust are estimates of key parameters in standard viral dynamic models?

Mathematical models of viral infection have been developed, fitted to data, and provide insight into disease pathogenesis for multiple agents that cause chronic infection, including HIV, hepatitis C, and B virus. However, for agents that cause acute infections or during the acute stage of agents that cause chronic infections, viral load data are often collected after symptoms develop, usually around or after the peak viral load. Consequently, we frequently lack data in the initial phase of viral growth, i.e., when pre-symptomatic transmission events occur. Missing data may make estimating the time of infection, the infectious period, and parameters in viral dynamic models, such as the cell infection rate, difficult. However, having extra information, such as the average time to peak viral load, may improve the robustness of the estimation. Here, we evaluated the robustness of estimates of key model parameters when viral load data prior to the viral load peak is missing, when we know the values of some parameters and/or the time from infection to peak viral load. Although estimates of the time of infection are sensitive to the quality and amount of available data, particularly pre-peak, other parameters important in understanding disease pathogenesis, such as the loss rate of infected cells, are less sensitive. Viral infectivity and the viral production rate are key parameters affecting the robustness of data fits. Fixing their values to literature values can help estimate the remaining model parameters when pre-peak data is missing or limited. We find a lack of data in the pre-peak growth phase underestimates the time to peak viral load by several days, leading to a shorter predicted growth phase. On the other hand, knowing the time of infection (e.g., from epidemiological data) and fixing it results in good estimates of dynamical parameters even in the absence of early data. While we provide ways to approximate model parameters in the absence of early viral load data, our results also suggest that these data, when available, are needed to estimate model parameters more precisely.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Maximum normalized acceleration as a flying qualities parameter

In 1984, Maximum Normalized Rate (MNR) was presented as a Flying Qualities parameter. Subsequent analysis of data from ground based simulation and flight test revealed the utility of a companion parameter, Maximum Normalized Acceleration (MNA). MNR and MNA profiles reveal the presence of both continuous and pulsed compensation strategies during discrete attitude tracking. In addition, MNR appears to be a suitable metric for pilot opinion in the LATHOS data base, while the MNR/MNA relationship is sensitive to pilot-induced-oscillation (PIO) and roll ratcheting problems. As part of an investigation of this problem, Northrop has developed an analysis technique known as the Step Target Method. The Step Target method is essentially a one degree-of-freedom simulation, where an attitude command in the form of a step function is presented to a closed-loop pilot/aircraft model. The two parameters MNR and MNA were shown to be useful in Flying Qualities analysis. MNR was shown to correlate with Pilot Opinion Rating in the LATHOS data base, while MNA reflects PIO and roll ratcheting. Profiles of MNR versus MNA reveal the presence of pulsed compensation strategies in both ground based and in-flight simulation. Furthermore, comparison of continuous and discrete attitude tracking simulation data reveals that these two tracking tasks exhibit independent sensitivities to aircraft characteristics.

Warner, J. S.↗

Assessing dynamic vegetation model parameter uncertainty across Alaskan arctic tundra plant communities

Abstract As the Arctic region moves into uncharted territory under a warming climate, it is important to refine the terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) that help us understand and predict change. One fundamental uncertainty in TBMs relates to model parameters, configuration variables internal to the model whose value can be estimated from data. We incorporate a version of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) developed for arctic ecosystems into the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) framework. PEcAn treats model parameters as probability distributions, estimates parameters based on a synthesis of available field data, and then quantifies both model sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter or suite of parameters. We examined how variation in 21 parameters in the equation for gross primary production influenced model sensitivity and uncertainty in terms of two carbon fluxes (net primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration) and two carbon (C) pools (vegetation C and soil C). We set up different parameterizations of TEM across a range of tundra types (tussock tundra, heath tundra, wet sedge tundra, and shrub tundra) in northern Alaska, along a latitudinal transect extending from the coastal plain near Utqiaġvik to the southern foothills of the Brooks Range, to the Seward Peninsula. TEM was most sensitive to parameters related to the temperature regulation of photosynthesis. Model uncertainty was mostly due to parameters related to leaf area, temperature regulation of photosynthesis, and the stomatal responses to ambient light conditions. Our analysis also showed that sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter varied spatially. At some sites, model sensitivity and uncertainty tended to be connected to a wider range of parameters, underlining the importance of assessing tundra community processes across environmental gradients or geographic locations. Generally, across sites, the flux of net primary productivity (NPP) and pool of vegetation C had about equal uncertainty, while heterotrophic respiration had higher uncertainty than the pool of soil C. Our study illustrates the complexity inherent in evaluating parameter uncertainty across highly heterogeneous arctic tundra plant communities. It also provides a framework for iteratively testing how newly collected field data related to key parameters may result in more effective forecasting of Arctic change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗