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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,333 records · Page 74
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2013

Exact-to-precision generalized perturbation for neutron transport calculation

This manuscript extends the exact-to-precision generalized perturbation theory (E{sub P}GPT), introduced previously, to neutron transport calculation whereby previous developments focused on neutron diffusion calculation only. The E{sub P}GPT collectively denotes new developments in generalized perturbation theory (GPT) that place premium on computational efficiency and defendable accuracy in order to render GPT a standard analysis tool in routine design and safety reactor calculations. EPGPT constructs a surrogate model with quantifiable accuracy which can replace the original neutron transport model for subsequent engineering analysis, e.g. functionalization of the homogenized few-group cross sections in terms of various core conditions, sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification. This is achieved by reducing the effective dimensionality of the state variable (i.e. neutron angular flux) by projection onto an active subspace. Confining the state variations to the active subspace allows one to construct a small number of what is referred to as the 'active' responses which are solely dependent on the physics model rather than on the responses of interest, the number of input parameters, or the number of points in the state phase space. (authors)

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Updates to a Preliminary Probabilistic Performance Assessment Model for Radiological and Chemical Contamination at the West Valley Site, New York - 20420

The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is the owner of the Western New York Nuclear Service Center (WNYNSC), a 1,351-ha site located approximately 48 km south of Buffalo, New York. In 1962, Nuclear Fuel Services, Inc. (NFS) entered into agreements with the Atomic Energy Commission and New York State to construct the first commercial reprocessing plant of nuclear fuel in the United States at the WNYNSC. NFS built and operated the spent fuel reprocessing plant and waste disposal facilities, processing 640 Mg (640 metric tons) of spent nuclear fuel from 1966 to 1972 under an Atomic Energy Commission license. Nuclear fuel reprocessing operations halted in 1972 and never restarted, leaving behind radioactive and chemical wastes. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) was required to complete certain waste management activities under the West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP) Act of 1980 including decommissioning of WVDP facilities. As collaborating agencies, NYSERDA and the DOE are tasked with making decisions about decommissioning and risk reduction for the West Valley Site. Neptune and Company, Inc. (Neptune) was contracted to develop a probabilistic performance assessment (PPA) model to assist the agencies in their decision making process for decommissioning the WVDP and WNYNSC. One important tool that is needed in order to inform the decision-making process is a science-based model of the West Valley Site that evaluates potential future consequences for human health and the environment. This forms the core of the spatial domain of the West Valley PPA Model. The PPA Model, developed using the GoldSim system modeling software, is a tool intended to provide support for decision making that evaluates uncertainty, in a manner that is transparent, defensible, and robust. The PPA Model includes contaminant transport and health effects components, and is organized around geographically-grouped contaminated facilities. These include the waste disposal areas licensed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the State of New York, a waste tank farm for storage of high level radioactive waste resulting from reprocessing operations, and several areas contaminated with radioactive and chemical constituents. The PPA Model evaluates contaminant transport from these sources to points of exposure across the site and into receiving surface waters and sediments. Hypothetical people and wildlife could be exposed to contamination at these locations, and the effects of these exposures are evaluated. Contaminant transport processes to be evaluated in the PPA Model include groundwater and surface water transport, contaminant translocation by plants and animals, diffusion, and erosion. The evaluation of exposures to people in this preliminary model is limited to a resident farmer scenario, and ecological assessment is performed at the level of a screening analysis. The results of these preliminary evaluations inform future model developments. PPA Model results are subjected to sensitivity analysis in order to determine those pathways and parameters that are most significant in influencing the results. This information allows analysts and decision makers to focus on those aspects of Site behavior and processes. With this information, the decision makers can drive informed, defensible decisions regarding decommissioning of the Site. This paper includes an update of the information presented at WM2019 [1]. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2019

Design of refractive index sensing based on 2D PhC air-slot width-modulated line-defect microcavity

In this paper, we propose an investigated sensor array based on two-dimensional photonic crystal air-slot width-modulated line-defect microcavity. This sensor consists of a waveguide coupled with microcavity. To achieve a high quality factor, we have tuned some parameters of the microcavity. The principle of sensing is based on the resonance wavelength shift when the refractive index is changed. For sensitivity analysis, we proposed various conventional designs (A–D). We demonstrated that the design D has the highest sensitivity. An air-slot is created within the line-defect. The existence of the slots enhances the light-matter interactions. The simulation results are obtained by using finite-deference time-domain method. The sensitivity can achieve 400 nm/RIU, with detection limit of 2.98 × 10{sup −5} RIU.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for a combined depletion and criticality calculation chain of a BWR FA

This paper examines the prerequisites and boundary conditions for extending burnup credit from pressurized water reactors to boiling water reactors with validated depletion codes by performing uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on a modern boiling water reactor fuel assembly design. We developed a computational chain consisting of an axial boiling water reactor axial irradiation model, followed by a series of depletion calculations and a three-dimensional criticality calculation. The irradiation model puts into relation the profiles of power, burnup and moderator density of the fuel assembly at 24 axial locations. In a simplified fashion it also includes the insertion of control blades. The depletion calculations of the fuel assembly were performed in axial slices with the 2D-depletion code HELIOS 1.12. The criticality calculations were done in 3D-geometry with KENO-Va from the SCALE 6.2.1 package, in which several fuel assemblies are placed into a generic transport cask. For the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses a Monte Carlo sampling based approach is used applying the GRS tool SUnCISTT. We performed several generic investigations testing the capabilities and the limitations of the whole computational chain. The impact of variations of the irradiation model on the resulting reactivity of the fuel assemblies inside a transport cask or storage pool was investigated using an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis on the whole computational chain. Geometrical uncertainties were also included in the evaluation and a parameter study on the use of control blades during irradiation was performed. The goal was to develop the procedures and tools to be able to obtain quantitative uncertainty data which can be used in the future to derive conservative irradiation profiles without unnecessary excess reactivity margins. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Calcination of kaolinite clay particles for cement production: A modeling study

Kaolinite rich clay particles calcined under certain conditions can attain favorable pozzolanic properties and can be used to substitute part of the CO{sub 2} intensive clinker in cement production. To better guide calcination of a clay material, a transient one-dimensional single particle model is developed, which fully addresses the conversion process of raw kaolinite particles suspended in hot gas. Particles are discretized into a number of spherical cells, on each of which mass, momentum, energy and species conservation equations are numerically solved by using the finite volume method. Reactions considered in the model include dehydration, dehydroxylation and various phase transformations. Thermogravimetric analysis is used to determine reaction kinetic data required as inputs in the model and to validate the model. Finally, model-based sensitivity analysis is performed, from which quantitative guidelines for calcination condition optimization are derived. - Highlights: • A general 1D mathematical model for single clay particle calcination is developed. • The model fully addresses momentum, heat and mass transfer and all the reactions. • Experiments are performed to determine kinetic data of the key reactions. • The model is verified by different means, including experimental results. • Sensitivity study is done to address key assumptions and derive useful guidelines.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Mapping environmental sensitivity: A systematic online approach to support environmental assessment and planning

Environmental sensitivity analysis provides a framework for systematically and objectively determining the potential for significant environmental impacts. The higher the natural or acquired sensitivity of the receiving environment, the less capable it is to cope with human-induced change. Given that sensitivity is context- and spatially-specific, Geographic Information Systems have been applied to develop an operational Webtool to analyse it. The Webtool enables a rapid and replicable spatial examination of environmental sensitivities and potential for land-use conflicts that supports Strategic Environmental Assessment and, ultimately, informed planning and decision-making. The novelty is on the provision of an online geoprocessing Widget that enables creation of context-specific maps. Pilot testing the Webtool in land-use and renewable energy planning through stakeholder engagement has validated its applicability. Stakeholders confirmed that it enables replicating and, in some cases, improving in-house SEA mapping processes while saving time and effort. However, its full reliance on publicly available spatial datasets renders completeness and resolution issues. The Webtool provides a critical starting-point for sectoral planning discussions and for developing plan/programme alternatives that avoid or minimise potentially incompatible or unsustainable zonings, while promoting consistency and transparency in impact assessment. - Highlights: •Sensitivity mapping can enhance baseline information for environmental assessments. •A novel online geoprocessing tool supports systematic sensitivity assessment. •It enables combining context-specific environmental criteria and value judgments. •Pilot testing it through stakeholder engagement has validated its applicability. •The tool promotes assessment consistency and transparency but data issues remain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

An Experimental and Numerical Investigation to Characterize the Low-Temperature Heat Release in Stoichiometric and Lean Combustion

This work reports on an experimental and modeling study on the low-temperature heat release (LTHR) characteristics for three RON 90 binary blends (n-heptane blended with isooctane, toluene and ethanol) in a Cooperative Fuel Research (CFR) engine at lean and stoichiometric conditions that are representative of homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI) and spark-ignition (SI) end-gas combustion conditions, respectively. An analysis of the end-gas temperature-pressure (T-P) trajectories was performed to identify the intake conditions leading to similar T-P trajectories between the two lambdas for each fuel blend. A heat release analysis was then conducted for the identified cases, where fuel-to-fuel differences in LTHR were identified and found to be sensitive to the operating condition. Simulations were conducted for these cases using a recently updated chemical kinetic model and a 0-D engine model, where good qualitative and reasonable quantitative agreements in LTHR were obtained. Sensitivity analysis was also performed directly on the rates of LTHR, to understand the controlling chemical reactions of LTHR, providing further insights into the fuel-to-fuel differences. The results demonstrate the significant promoting effect of n-heptane on LTHR rates, while inhibiting effects were seen for ethanol and toluene. Also highlighted was the importance of H atom abstraction reactions from the chemistry of each fuel component, which could lead to contradictory fuel behavior depending on the locations of the H site of the abstraction reaction due to the different ensuing pathways for the primary fuel radicals.

LTHR, RON 90 binary blends, sensitivity analysis↗
DOE OSTI2016

The Effects of Different Lattice Codes on Results of Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis

According to the UAM ('Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling') benchmark, uncertainties in the LWR system calculations at all stages should be determined and quantified. As the neutronics calculations are prerequisite for the predictions of the reactor system, and the uncertainties introduced by the neutronics calculations would be propagated to the subsequent calculations, hence uncertainty analysis has been firstly focused on the neutronics phase to quantify the uncertainties of the reactor-physics predictions in UAM. For the lattice physics, the objective of uncertainty analysis is focused on uncertainty quantifications of the few-group constants; for the core physics, uncertainties of the core steady-state stand-alone neutronics calculations are focused on. Based on the previous researches, the nuclear-data uncertainty has been treated as one of the most significant source of uncertainty and received the most focus. In the previous works, the domestic code UNICORN has the capability of performing sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis using the direct numerical perturbation (DNP) method and statistical sampling (SS) method. In this paper, the capability of the UNICORN code has been improved. The domestic lattice code NECP-CACTI has been added in UNICORN to perform the lattice calculations, with DRAGON5.0 and NECP-CACTI available for lattice calculations. For DRAGON5.0 and NECP-CACTI, all the methods and technologies are shared in UNICORN. Therefore, the effects of different lattice codes on the results of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis have been researched and determined in this paper. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Insights into pathological mechanisms and interventions revealed by analyzing a mathematical model for cone metabolism

This work analyzes a mathematical model for the metabolic dynamics of a cone photoreceptor, which is the first model to account for energy generation from fatty acids oxidation of shed photoreceptor outer segments (POS). Multiple parameter bifurcation analysis shows that joint variations in external glucose, the efficiency of glucose transporter 1 (GLUT1), lipid utilization for POS renewal, and oxidation of fatty acids affect the cone’s metabolic vitality and its capability to adapt under glucose-deficient conditions. The analysis further reveals that when glucose is scarce, cone viability cannot be sustained by only fueling energy production in the mitochondria, but it also requires supporting anabolic processes to create lipids necessary for cell maintenance and repair. In silico experiments are used to investigate how the duration of glucose deprivation impacts the cell without and with a potential GLUT1 or oxidation of fatty acids intervention as well as a dual intervention. The results show that for prolonged duration of glucose deprivation, the cone metabolic system does not recover with higher oxidation of fatty acids and requires greater effectiveness of GLUT1 to recover. Finally, time-varying global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is applied to assess the sensitivity of the model outputs of interest to changes and uncertainty in the parameters at specific times. The results reveal a critical temporal window where there would be more flexibility for interventions to rescue a cone cell from the detrimental consequences of glucose shortage.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2019

Bayesian Inference and the Effects of Varying Uncertainty Models in Charring Ablator Calibration and Uncertainty Quantification Problems

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) vehicle utilized a heat shield constructed from NASA’s Phenolic-Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) material to protect the main structure from the high enthalpy environment encountered during hypersonic atmospheric entry. During the vehicle’s descent through Martian atmosphere, multiple thermocouples embedded within the heat shield captured in-depth material temperature data that allow for studies to be conducted on current material response reconstruction tools. In the present work, material temperature data obtained from thermocouples within the MISP-4 plug (MEDLI (Mars Science Laboratory Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrument) Integrated Sensor Plug) are utilized in the calibration of Theoretical Ablative Composite for Open Testing (TACOT) model parameters in conjunction with NASA’s Porous material Analysis Toolbox (PATO) through Bayesian inference where uncertainty due to parametric, modeling, and experimental sources is simultaneously quantified. Prior to the study, a sensitivity analysis is performed through computation of the robust Sobol indices in an effort to study the relationship between input space and model response and to reduce the dimensionality of the statistical inverse problem. The Bayesian inference methodology necessitates an a-priori choice to be made for the uncertainty model for which numerous possibilities are available. Across most works, however, only basic additive or multiplicative models are utilized with pre-defined magnitudes of uncertainty based on a-priori knowledge or to-be-calibrated multipliers of static covariance matrix structures. The present effort explores the effects of informed uncertainty models, ones with temporal dependence that are simultaneously calibrated through Bayesian inference, on calibrated results for parameters that make up the uncertain input space.

Sensitivity Analysis↗
DOE OSTI2024

Skeletal reaction models for methane combustion

A local-sensitivity-analysis technique is employed to generate new skeletal reaction models for methane combustion from the foundational fuel chemistry model (FFCM-1). Here, the sensitivities of the thermo-chemical variables with respect to the reaction rates are computed via the forced-optimally time dependent (f-OTD) methodology. In this methodology, the large sensitivity matrix containing all local sensitivities is modeled as a product of two low-rank time-dependent matrices. The evolution equations of these matrices are derived from the governing equations of the system. The modeled sensitivities are computed for the auto-ignition of methane at atmospheric and high pressures with different sets of initial temperatures, and equivalence ratios. These sensitivities are then analyzed to rank the most important (sensitive) species. A series of skeletal models with different number of species and levels of accuracy in reproducing the FFCM-1 results are suggested. The performances of the generated models are compared against FFCM-1 in predicting the ignition delay, the laminar flame speed, and the flame extinction. The results of this comparative assessment suggest the skeletal models with 24 and more species generate the FFCM-1 results with an excellent accuracy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2010

Finite Element Model Calibration Approach for Area I-X

Ares I-X is a pathfinder vehicle concept under development by NASA to demonstrate a new class of launch vehicles. Although this vehicle is essentially a shell of what the Ares I vehicle will be, efforts are underway to model and calibrate the analytical models before its maiden flight. Work reported in this document will summarize the model calibration approach used including uncertainty quantification of vehicle responses and the use of non-conventional boundary conditions during component testing. Since finite element modeling is the primary modeling tool, the calibration process uses these models, often developed by different groups, to assess model deficiencies and to update parameters to reconcile test with predictions. Data for two major component tests and the flight vehicle are presented along with the calibration results. For calibration, sensitivity analysis is conducted using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). To reduce the computational burden associated with ANOVA calculations, response surface models are used in lieu of computationally intensive finite element solutions. From the sensitivity studies, parameter importance is assessed as a function of frequency. In addition, the work presents an approach to evaluate the probability that a parameter set exists to reconcile test with analysis. Comparisons of pretest predictions of frequency response uncertainty bounds with measured data, results from the variance-based sensitivity analysis, and results from component test models with calibrated boundary stiffness models are all presented.

Horta, Lucas G.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Comparative Evaluation of Spectral Methods for Robust Reactor Noise Estimation

Reactor noise analysis provides a noninvasive means to determine neutron kinetic parameters from stochastic fluctuations in detector signals. However, standard cross-power spectral density (CPSD) analyses can be sensitive to numerical processing choices, which may introduce processing-dependent systematic shifts in estimates of the prompt neutron decay constant (α) and limit reproducibility. This study uses a hybrid multitaper–Welch spectral estimator to analyze subcritical noise measurements from a fast-spectrum critical assembly. The decay constant α was extracted using three frequency-domain methods: the CPSD, the magnitude-squared coherence (MSC), and the generalized magnitude-squared coherence (GMSC). These coherence-based estimators normalize detector auto-spectral structure and are expected to reduce the sensitivity of fitted α values to processing parameters. A Sobol global sensitivity analysis identified which numerical inputs most strongly influence the fitted values of α. All estimators produced a linear dependence of α on inverse count rate, with delayed-critical extrapolations near 1.7 × 10 4 s −1 , in agreement within 8% of MCNP6.3 KOPTS benchmark calculations. Sensitivity results show that while the CPSD depends on both time-bin width and taper selection, the MSC and GMSC are dominated by time-bin width alone, indicating reduced parameter coupling and greater robustness to processing variability. These findings demonstrate the feasibility and practical value of coherence-based spectral estimators for extracting α from reactor noise and support their broader application to multi-detector and irregular datasets in subcritical system characterization.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2018

Pressure transient analysis during CO 2 push-pull tests into faults for EGS characterization

Here, with the goal of detecting and characterizing faults and fractures in enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), a new technology involving CO 2 push-pull testing, active-source geophysical imaging, and well logging has recently been proposed. This technique takes advantage of (1) the contrasting properties of supercritical CO 2 and water which cause CO 2 to appear distinct from surrounding brine in seismic and other geophysical logging approaches, (2) the non-wetting nature of CO 2 which keeps it localized to the faults and fractures to create contrast potentially sufficient for active seismic and well-logging approaches to image faults and fracture zones at EGS sites. In this study, we evaluate the feasibility of using pressure transient monitoring during CO 2 push-pull tests to complement active seismic and wireline well logging for EGS characterization. For this purpose, we developed a 2D model of a prototypical geothermal site (Desert Peak, NV) that includes a single fault. The fault zone consists of a slip plane, fault gouge, and damage zone, and is bounded by the surrounding matrix of the country rock. Through numerical simulation using iTOUGH2, we found that the pressure transient at the monitoring wells in the fault gouge shows unique traits due to the multiphase flow conditions developed by CO 2 injection, and varies sensitively on the arrival of the CO 2 plume and the degree of CO 2 saturation. A sensitivity analysis shows the pressure transient is most sensitive to the fault gouge permeability, but also depends on multiphase flow parameters and the boundary conditions of the fault. Lastly, an inversion study reveals that the fault gouge permeability can be best estimated with the pressure transient data, whereas additional CO 2 saturation data do not improve the accuracy of the inversion significantly.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2010

Finite Element Model Calibration Approach for Ares I-X

Ares I-X is a pathfinder vehicle concept under development by NASA to demonstrate a new class of launch vehicles. Although this vehicle is essentially a shell of what the Ares I vehicle will be, efforts are underway to model and calibrate the analytical models before its maiden flight. Work reported in this document will summarize the model calibration approach used including uncertainty quantification of vehicle responses and the use of nonconventional boundary conditions during component testing. Since finite element modeling is the primary modeling tool, the calibration process uses these models, often developed by different groups, to assess model deficiencies and to update parameters to reconcile test with predictions. Data for two major component tests and the flight vehicle are presented along with the calibration results. For calibration, sensitivity analysis is conducted using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). To reduce the computational burden associated with ANOVA calculations, response surface models are used in lieu of computationally intensive finite element solutions. From the sensitivity studies, parameter importance is assessed as a function of frequency. In addition, the work presents an approach to evaluate the probability that a parameter set exists to reconcile test with analysis. Comparisons of pre-test predictions of frequency response uncertainty bounds with measured data, results from the variance-based sensitivity analysis, and results from component test models with calibrated boundary stiffness models are all presented.

Horta, Lucas G.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Assessing an experimental approach for chemical explosive mode and heat release rate using DNS data

Obtaining information about burning characteristics and flame structures by analyzing experimental data is an important issue for understanding combustion processes and pursuing combustion modeling approaches. It has been shown that Raman/Rayleigh measurements of major species and temperature can be used to approximate the local heat release rate and the chemical explosive mode, and that these results are sufficiently accurate for a qualitative assessment of the relative importance of different heat release zones within the same overall flame structure in laminar and mildly turbulent partially premixed flames. The present study uses data from direct numerical simulation (DNS) to extend and quantify the understanding of the approximation method with respect to premixed and stratified-premixed flames with significant turbulence–chemistry interaction (high Karlovitz number). Here, the accuracy of the approximation procedure is assessed as previously applied, using just major species and temperature, as well as with the OH radical included as an additional experimentally accessible species. The accuracy of the local chemical explosive mode and the local heat release rate results from the approximation are significantly improved with OH included, yielding quantitative agreement with the DNS results. Further, a global sensitivity analysis is applied to identify the sensitivity of the heat release rate and chemical explosive mode to experimental uncertainties imprinted upon the DNS data prior to the approximation procedure.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

An Analysis of the Sensitivity of Proteogenomic Mapping of Somatic Mutations and Novel Splicing Events in Cancer

Improvements in mass spectrometry (MS)-based peptide sequencing provide a new opportunity to determine whether polymorphisms, mutations and splice variants identified in cancer cells are translated. Herein we therefore describe a proteogenomic data integration tool (QUILTS) and illustrate its application to whole genome, transcriptome and global MS peptide sequence datasets generated from a pair of luminal and basal-like breast cancer patient derived xenografts (PDX). The sensitivity of proteogenomic analysis for singe nucleotide variant (SNV) expression and novel splice junction (NSJ) detection was probed using multiple MS/MS process replicates. Despite over thirty sample replicates, only about 10% of all SNV (somatic and germline) were detected by both DNA and RNA sequencing were observed as peptides. An even smaller proportion of peptides corresponding to NSJ observed by RNA sequencing were detected (<0.1%). Peptides mapping to DNA-detected SNV without a detectable mRNA transcript were also observed demonstrating the transcriptome coverage was also incomplete (~80%). In contrast to germ-line variants, somatic variants were less likely to be detected at the peptide level in the basal-like tumor than the luminal tumor raising the possibility of differential translation or protein degradation effects. In conclusion, the QUILTS program integrates DNA, RNA and peptide sequencing to assess the degree to which somatic mutations are translated and therefore biologically active. By identifying gaps in sequence coverage QUILTS benchmarks current technology and assesses progress towards whole cancer proteome and transcriptome analysis.

Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory↗
DOE OSTI2018

Understanding Biases in Pre-Construction Estimates

The pre-construction energy generation of a wind farm (P50) is difficult to estimate and evaluate. This paper presents a methodology to measure the accuracy of the p50 prediction, which we call the Historical Validation Survey (HVS), for several wind farms in the continental United States. Our results indicate that there is a bias between predicted and measured energy, even when controlling for factors like grid curtailment and resource variability. We also find that our results depend on the assumptions we make during analysis, which we quantify with a sensitivity analysis. This method allows the estimation of uncertainty we have in our findings. When we account for reasonable ranges of model assumptions, we find that, in the most optimistic case, there is still a bulk -5.5% bias when estimating pre-construction energy generation. When controlling for grid curtailment this number reduces to a range of -3.5 to -4.5%.

17 WIND ENERGY↗