Results for “sampling variability” — Page 74

DOE OSTI2016

Prospective Validation of a High Dimensional Shape Model for Organ Motion in Intact Cervical Cancer

Purpose: Validated models are needed to justify strategies to define planning target volumes (PTVs) for intact cervical cancer used in clinical practice. Our objective was to independently validate a previously published shape model, using data collected prospectively from clinical trials. Methods and Materials: We analyzed 42 patients with intact cervical cancer treated with daily fractionated pelvic intensity modulated radiation therapy and concurrent chemotherapy in one of 2 prospective clinical trials. We collected online cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) scans before each fraction. Clinical target volume (CTV) structures from the planning computed tomography scan were cast onto each CBCT scan after rigid registration and manually redrawn to account for organ motion and deformation. We applied the 95% isodose cloud from the planning computed tomography scan to each CBCT scan and computed any CTV outside the 95% isodose cloud. The primary aim was to determine the proportion of CTVs that were encompassed within the 95% isodose volume. A 1-sample t test was used to test the hypothesis that the probability of complete coverage was different from 95%. We used mixed-effects logistic regression to assess effects of time and patient variability. Results: The 95% isodose line completely encompassed 92.3% of all CTVs (95% confidence interval, 88.3%-96.4%), not significantly different from the 95% probability anticipated a priori (P=.19). The overall proportion of missed CTVs was small: the grand mean of covered CTVs was 99.9%, and 95.2% of misses were located in the anterior body of the uterus. Time did not affect coverage probability (P=.71). Conclusions: With the clinical implementation of a previously proposed PTV definition strategy based on a shape model for intact cervical cancer, the probability of CTV coverage was high and the volume of CTV missed was low. This PTV expansion strategy is acceptable for clinical trials and practice; however, we recommend daily image guidance to avoid systematic large misses in select patients.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Ensemble variational Fokker-Planck methods for data assimilation

Particle flow filters solve Bayesian inference problems by smoothly transforming a set of particles into samples from the posterior distribution. Particles move in state space under the flow of an McKean-Vlasov-Itˆo process. This work introduces the Variational Fokker-Planck (VFP) framework for data assimilation, a general approach that includes previously known particle flow filters as special cases. The McKean-Vlasov-Itˆo process that transforms particles is defined via an optimal drift that depends on the selected diffusion term. It is established that the underlying probability density - sampled by the ensemble of particles - converges to the Bayesian posterior probability density. For a finite number of particles the optimal drift contains a regularization term that nudges particles toward becoming independent random variables. Based on this analysis, we derive computationally-feasible approximate regularization approaches that penalize the mutual information between pairs of particles, and avoid particle collapse. Moreover, the diffusion plays a role akin to a particle rejuvenation approach that aims to alleviate particle collapse. The VFP framework is very flexible. Different assumptions on prior and intermediate probability distributions can be used to implement the optimal drift, and localization and covariance shrinkage can be applied to alleviate the curse of dimensionality. A robust implicit-explicit method is discussed for the efficient integration of stiff McKean- Vlasov-Itˆo processes. Here, the effectiveness of the VFP framework is demonstrated on three progressively more challenging test problems, namely the Lorenz ’63, Lorenz ’96 and the quasi-geostrophic equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Representing Socio‐Economic Uncertainty in Human System Models

Abstract Socio‐economic development pathways and their implications for the environment are highly uncertain, and energy transitions will involve complex interactions among sectors. Here, traditional Monte Carlo analysis is paired with scenario discovery techniques to provide a richer portrait of these complexities. Modeled uncertain input variables include costs of advanced energy technologies, energy efficiency trends, fossil fuel resource availability, elasticities of substitution for labor, capital, and energy across economic sectors, population growth, and labor and capital productivity. The sampled values are simulated through a multi‐sector, multi‐region, recursively dynamic model of the world economy to explore a range of possible future outcomes. We find that many patterns of energy and technology development are possible for various long‐term environmental pathways and that sectoral output for most sectors is little affected through 2050 by the long‐term temperature target, but with tight constraints on emissions, emission intensities must fall much more rapidly. Scenario discovery techniques are applied to the large uncertainty ensembles to explore if there are prevailing storylines behind outcomes of interest. An illustrative investigation focused on different levels of economic growth shows many combinations of pathways and no single storyline emerging for a given economic outcome. This method can be extended to other outcomes of interest, exploring the nature of scenarios with both tail and median outcomes. Sampling from a Monte Carlo generated ensemble provides a rich set of scenarios to investigate, and potentially aids in avoiding heuristic biases in less structured scenario approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating changes in growth and pigmentation of Cladosporium cladosporioides and Paecilomyces variotii in response to gamma and ultraviolet irradiation

Abstract Melanin-containing fungi (black molds) have the capacity to thrive under extreme environmental conditions such as the elevated radiation levels inside the former Chernobyl reactors. These fungi have been hypothesized to grow toward and use gamma radiation as an energy source, but the literature does not clearly address which energies of the electromagnetic spectrum, if any, positively affect fungal growth. The goal of this work was to characterize the response of non-melanized and melanized fungi to two distinct electromagnetic wavelengths, i.e., ultraviolet (UV) and gamma ray, keeping absorption and other potentially confounding variables constant. Exposure to UV or gamma radiation induced significant changes in fungi pigmentation, but not growth rate of Cladosporium cladosporioides and Paecilomyces variotii . Specifically, increased pigmentation of both fungi was observed in samples exposed to UV, while decreased pigmentation was observed for gamma-irradiated samples. These results provide new insights into the role of electromagnetic energies on growth of fungi and provide an impetus to examine additional energies and types of radiation to develop a fundamental understanding of this phenomenon.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spatial patterns of historical crop yields reveal soil health attributes in US Midwest fields

Abstract Attaining high crop yields and increasing carbon storage in agricultural soils, while avoiding negative environmental impacts on water quality, soil erosion, and biodiversity, requires accurate and precise management of crop inputs and management practices. The long-term analysis of spatial and temporal patterns of crop yields provides insights on how yields vary in a field, with parts of field constantly producing either high yields or low yields and other parts that fluctuate from one year to the next. The concept of yield stability has shown to be informative on how plants translate the effects of environmental conditions (e.g., soil, climate, topography) across the field and over the years in the final yield, and as a valuable layer in developing prescription maps of variable fertilizer rate inputs. Using known relationships between soil health and crop yields, we hypothesize that areas with measured constantly low yield will return low carbon to the soil affecting its heath. On this premises, yield stability zones (YSZ) provide an effective and practical integrative measure of the small-scale variability of soil health on a field relative basis. We tested this hypothesis by measuring various metrics of soil health from commercial farmers’ fields in the north central Midwest of the USA in samples replicated across YSZ, using a soil test suite commonly used by producers and stakeholders active in agricultural carbon credits markets. We found that the use of YSZ allowed us to successfully partition field-relative soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil health metrics into statistically distinct regions. Low and stable (LS) yield zones were statistically lower in normalized SOC when compared to high and stable (HS) and unstable (US) yield zones. The drivers of the yield differences within a field are a series of factors ranging from climate, topography and soil. LS zones occur in areas of compacted soil layers or shallow soils (edge of the field) on steeper slopes. The US zones occurring with high water flow accumulation, were more dependent on topography and rainfall. The differences in the components of the overall soil health score (SHS) between these YSZ increased with sample depth suggesting a deeper topsoil in the US and HS zones, driven by the accumulation of water, nutrients, and carbon downslope. Comparison of the field management provided initial evidence that zero tillage reduces the magnitude of the variance in SOC and soil health metrics between the YSZ.

Fowler, Ames↗

DOE OSTI2017

A practical approach to the sensitivity analysis for kinetic Monte Carlo simulation of heterogeneous catalysis

Lattice kinetic Monte Carlo simulations have become a vital tool for predictive quality atomistic understanding of complex surface chemical reaction kinetics over a wide range of reaction conditions. In order to expand their practical value in terms of giving guidelines for atomic level design of catalytic systems, it is very desirable to readily evaluate a sensitivity analysis for a given model. The result of such a sensitivity analysis quantitatively expresses the dependency of the turnover frequency, being the main output variable, on the rate constants entering the model. In the past the application of sensitivity analysis, such as Degree of Rate Control, has been hampered by its exuberant computational effort required to accurately sample numerical derivatives of a property that is obtained from a stochastic simulation method. Here in this study we present an efficient and robust three stage approach that is capable of reliably evaluating the sensitivity measures for stiff microkinetic models as we demonstrate using CO oxidation on RuO 2 (110) as a prototypical reaction. In a first step, we utilize the Fisher Information Matrix for filtering out elementary processes which only yield negligible sensitivity. Then we employ an estimator based on linear response theory for calculating the sensitivity measure for non-critical conditions which covers the majority of cases. Finally we adopt a method for sampling coupled finite differences for evaluating the sensitivity measure of lattice based models. This allows efficient evaluation even in critical regions near a second order phase transition that are hitherto difficult to control. The combined approach leads to significant computational savings over straightforward numerical derivatives and should aid in accelerating the nano scale design of heterogeneous catalysts.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tailoring Nitinol for elastocaloric application

This study focuses on tailoring commercial Nitinol, the most commonly used elastocaloric material, for near-room-temperature cooling applications. Short heat treatments near 500 °C were used to fine-tune the material’s transition temperature, resulting in austenite finish temperatures ranging from 6.0 to 25.5°C and altered superelastic and elastocaloric properties. Plateau stresses decreased while temperature changes rose from 21.5°C up to 27.9°C at 6% strain. Significant variability in the Nitinol response when testing below its austenite finish temperature was observed. In conclusion, the effect of mechanical cycling on transition temperatures was also evaluated, demonstrating an increase for all the samples.

Efficiency↗

DOE OSTI2023

Microbarograph - ESRL Hi-Res Microbarograph, Troutdale - Raw Data

High-precision barometers (Paroscientific 6000-16B-IS) are combined with Nishiyama-Bedard Quad Disk pressure probes, measuring pressure (mb) at the surface, nominally 2 m above ground level. Data are sampled at 20 Hz for potential studies of turbulence. The sensors' high accuracy makes them useful for determining horizontal pressure gradients and their relation to wind ramp events, as well as the temporal variability of pressure associated with mountain wakes and waves. **Note different ASCII file formats for Goldendale (z04) and Walla Walla (z09) sites.**

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Microbarograph - ESRL Hi-Res Microbarograph, Bonneville - Raw Data

High-precision barometers (Paroscientific 6000-16B-IS) are combined with Nishiyama-Bedard Quad Disk pressure probes, measuring pressure (mb) at the surface, nominally 2 m above ground level. Data are sampled at 20 Hz for potential studies of turbulence. The sensors' high accuracy makes them useful for determining horizontal pressure gradients and their relation to wind ramp events, as well as the temporal variability of pressure associated with mountain wakes and waves. **Note different ASCII file formats for Goldendale (z04) and Walla Walla (z09) sites.**

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Microbarograph - ESRL Hi-Res Microbarograph, Goldendale - Raw Data

High-precision barometers (Paroscientific 6000-16B-IS) are combined with Nishiyama-Bedard Quad Disk pressure probes, measuring pressure (mb) at the surface, nominally 2 m above ground level. Data are sampled at 20 Hz for potential studies of turbulence. The sensors' high accuracy makes them useful for determining horizontal pressure gradients and their relation to wind ramp events, as well as the temporal variability of pressure associated with mountain wakes and waves. **Note different ASCII file formats for Goldendale (z04) and Walla Walla (z09) sites.**

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Microbarograph - ESRL Hi-Res Microbarograph, Hood River - Raw Data

High-precision barometers (Paroscientific 6000-16B-IS) are combined with Nishiyama-Bedard Quad Disk pressure probes, measuring pressure (mb) at the surface, nominally 2 m above ground level. Data are sampled at 20 Hz for potential studies of turbulence. The sensors' high accuracy makes them useful for determining horizontal pressure gradients and their relation to wind ramp events, as well as the temporal variability of pressure associated with mountain wakes and waves. **Note different ASCII file formats for Goldendale (z04) and Walla Walla (z09) sites.**

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Microbarograph - ESRL Hi-Res Microbarograph, Wasco Airport - Raw Data

High-precision barometers (Paroscientific 6000-16B-IS) are combined with Nishiyama-Bedard Quad Disk pressure probes, measuring pressure (mb) at the surface, nominally 2 m above ground level. Data are sampled at 20 Hz for potential studies of turbulence. The sensors' high accuracy makes them useful for determining horizontal pressure gradients and their relation to wind ramp events, as well as the temporal variability of pressure associated with mountain wakes and waves. **Note different ASCII file formats for Goldendale (z04) and Walla Walla (z09) sites.**

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Microbarograph - ESRL Hi-Res Microbarograph, Boardman - Raw Data

High-precision barometers (Paroscientific 6000-16B-IS) are combined with Nishiyama-Bedard Quad Disk pressure probes, measuring pressure (mb) at the surface, nominally 2 m above ground level. Data are sampled at 20 Hz for potential studies of turbulence. The sensors' high accuracy makes them useful for determining horizontal pressure gradients and their relation to wind ramp events, as well as the temporal variability of pressure associated with mountain wakes and waves. **Note different ASCII file formats for Goldendale (z04) and Walla Walla (z09) sites.**

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Microbarograph - ESRL Hi-Res Microbarograph, Condon - Raw Data

High-precision barometers (Paroscientific 6000-16B-IS) are combined with Nishiyama-Bedard Quad Disk pressure probes, measuring pressure (mb) at the surface, nominally 2 m above ground level. Data are sampled at 20 Hz for potential studies of turbulence. The sensors' high accuracy makes them useful for determining horizontal pressure gradients and their relation to wind ramp events, as well as the temporal variability of pressure associated with mountain wakes and waves. **Note different ASCII file formats for Goldendale (z04) and Walla Walla (z09) sites.**

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Microbarograph - ESRL Hi-Res Microbarograph, John Day - Raw Data

High-precision barometers (Paroscientific 6000-16B-IS) are combined with Nishiyama-Bedard Quad Disk pressure probes, measuring pressure (mb) at the surface, nominally 2 m above ground level. Data are sampled at 20 Hz for potential studies of turbulence. The sensors' high accuracy makes them useful for determining horizontal pressure gradients and their relation to wind ramp events, as well as the temporal variability of pressure associated with mountain wakes and waves. **Note different ASCII file formats for Goldendale (z04) and Walla Walla (z09) sites.**

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Microbarograph - ESRL Hi-Res Microbarograph, Goldendale - Reviewed Data

High-precision barometers (Paroscientific 6000-16B-IS) are combined with Nishiyama-Bedard Quad Disk pressure probes, measuring pressure (mb) at the surface, nominally 2 m above ground level. Data are sampled at 20 Hz for potential studies of turbulence. The sensors' high accuracy makes them useful for determining horizontal pressure gradients and their relation to wind ramp events, as well as the temporal variability of pressure associated with mountain wakes and waves. **Note different ASCII file formats for Goldendale (z04) and Walla Walla (z09) sites.**

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Microbarograph - ESRL Hi-Res Microbarograph, Hood River - Reviewed Data

High-precision barometers (Paroscientific 6000-16B-IS) are combined with Nishiyama-Bedard Quad Disk pressure probes, measuring pressure (mb) at the surface, nominally 2 m above ground level. Data are sampled at 20 Hz for potential studies of turbulence. The sensors' high accuracy makes them useful for determining horizontal pressure gradients and their relation to wind ramp events, as well as the temporal variability of pressure associated with mountain wakes and waves. **Note different ASCII file formats for Goldendale (z04) and Walla Walla (z09) sites.**

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Microbarograph - ESRL Hi-Res Microbarograph, Troutdale - Reviewed Data

High-precision barometers (Paroscientific 6000-16B-IS) are combined with Nishiyama-Bedard Quad Disk pressure probes, measuring pressure (mb) at the surface, nominally 2 m above ground level. Data are sampled at 20 Hz for potential studies of turbulence. The sensors' high accuracy makes them useful for determining horizontal pressure gradients and their relation to wind ramp events, as well as the temporal variability of pressure associated with mountain wakes and waves. **Note different ASCII file formats for Goldendale (z04) and Walla Walla (z09) sites.**

17 WIND ENERGY↗