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This paper describes a flexible agent-based ecological forecasting system that combines multiple distributed data sources and models to provide near-real-time answers to questions about the state of the Earth system We build on novel techniques in automated constraint-based planning and natural language interfaces to automatically generate data products based on descriptions of the desired data products.
The initiative to explore space and extend a human presence across our solar system to revisit the moon and Mars post enormous technological challenges to the nation's space agency and aerospace industry. Key areas of technology development needs to enable the endeavor include advanced materials, structures and mechanisms; micro/nano sensors and detectors; power generation, storage and management; advanced thermal and cryogenic control; guidance, navigation and control; command and data handling; advanced propulsion; advanced communication; on-board processing; advanced information technology systems; modular and reconfigurable systems; precision formation flying; solar sails; distributed observing systems; space robotics; and etc. Quality assurance concerns such as functional performance, structural integrity, radiation tolerance, health monitoring, diagnosis, maintenance, calibration, and initialization can affect the performance of systems and subsystems. It is thus imperative to employ innovative nondestructive evaluation methodologies to ensure quality and integrity of advanced space systems. Advancements in integrated multi-functional sensor systems, autonomous inspection approaches, distributed embedded sensors, roaming inspectors, and shape adaptive sensors are sought. Concepts in computational models for signal processing and data interpretation to establish quantitative characterization and event determination are also of interest. Prospective evaluation technologies include ultrasonics, laser ultrasonics, optics and fiber optics, shearography, video optics and metrology, thermography, electromagnetics, acoustic emission, x-ray, data management, biomimetics, and nano-scale sensing approaches for structural health monitoring.
The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission generates, among other data sets, the Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4 SM) product. The L4 SM algorithm is based on the assimilation of SMAP radiometer brightness temperature observations into the NASA Catchment land surface model using a spatially distributed ensemble Kalman filter. The L4 SM data are published with a mean latency of approx. 2.5 days from the time of observation and provide global, three-hourly, 9 km resolution estimates of surface and root-zone soil moisture and related land surface states and fluxes. In 2018, the product was upgraded from Version 3 to Version 4. Underlying the new version is a revised modeling system that includes improved input parameter datasets for land cover, topography, and vegetation height that are based on recent, high quality space-borne remote sensing observations. Land cover inputs were updated to the GlobCover2009 product, which is based on satellite observations from the Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer. Topographic statistics now rely on observations from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. Finally, vegetation height inputs are derived from space-borne Lidar measurements. Additionally, SMAP Level-2 soil moisture retrievals and in situ soil moisture measurements were used to calibrate a particular Catchment model parameter that governs the recharge of soil moisture from the models root-zone excess reservoir into the surface excess reservoir. Specifically, the replenishment of soil moisture near the surface from below under non-equilibrium conditions was substantially reduced, which brings the models surface soil moisture more in line with the SMAP Level 2 and in situ soil moisture. Finally, the calibration of the assimilated SMAP brightness temperatures changed substantially from Version 3 to Version 4. Considerable effort went into the version upgrade, creating an expectation that the new version is improved over the old version. Indeed, some aspects of the new version are clearly better. However, other aspects are not, and on balance, the overall improvement is modest at best. In this presentation we summarize the skill of the new and old versions vs. independent in situ measurements and in terms of data assimilation diagnostics, including, for example, the statistics of the (soil moisture) analysis increments and the observation minus forecast (brightness temperatures) residuals. We share our experience with trying to improve to the L4 SM product and the lessons learned from the effort.
The goal of the NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS, https://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/gldas(https://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/gldas)) is to generate optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes by ingesting satellite- and ground-based observational data products, using advanced land surface modeling and data assimilation techniques (Rodell et al., 2004).The GLDAS dataset currently archived at and distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC, https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/ (https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/)) is GLDAS Version 2 (GLDAS-2). It contains a series of output fields from the upgraded Noah-3.6, Catchment-F2.5, and VIC-4.1.2 Land Surface Models (LSMs) in the Land Information System (LIS-V7, https://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov/ (https://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov/)). GLDAS-2 has three components:GLDAS-2.0, GLDAS-2.1, and GLDAS-2.2. GLDAS-2.0 is forced entirely with the upgraded Princeton Meteorological ForcingV2.2 Dataset and provides a temporally consistent series from 1948 through 2014. GLDAS-2.1 is forced with a combination of model and observation data, with data spanning from 2000 to the present. The GLDAS-2.2 product suite uses data assimilation(DA), whereas the GLDAS-2.0 and GLDAS-2.1 products are "open-loop" (i.e., no data assimilation). The choice of forcing data, as well as DA observation source, variable, and scheme, varies for different GLDAS-2.2 products. The currently availableGLDAS-2.2 data contain a daily 0.25-degree output from the Catchment-F2.5 LSM in LIS-V7. The data are forced with the meteorological analysis fields from the operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF-IFS) and assimilated with GRACE and GRACE-FO data, ranging from February 1, 2003 to the present. The current GLDAS-2.0 and 2.1 Noah LSM data were reprocessed in November 2019 and January 2020 respectively and their data from Catchment and VIC LSMs are new to the GLDAS-2 collection. This presentation provides a summary of theGLDAS-2 data products, their land surface fields, and their related data services at the GES DISC; and a description of the majorGLDAS-2 climatological characteristics as well as the intercomparison with the data of the previous version.
The digitization of smart grid distributed generation and industrial control systems has prompted utilities to deploy tools with ubiquitous communications that potentially widen the attack surface. The utilities still continue to rely on the traditional cybersecurity technologies, such as firewalls, anti-malware tools, and passwords that do not ensure security across all dimensions of the information assurance model required for a strong cybersecurity business process. This paper proposes a multidimensional holistic framework that addresses this gap through advanced technologies, intelligent algorithms, and continued assessments. To show proof, the layered defense model, a solution dimension of the framework, is integrated into the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Security and Resilience Testbed to replicate a utility's enterprise and substation networks. The model is used to evaluate the security and resilience of microgrid control systems, and, based on the insights gathered, recommend best practices for utility cybersecurity analysts for a strong business process. Here, with this baseline, the paper conceptually introduces intelligence-driven solutions comprising contextual data analysis and machine learning to respond to advanced persistent threats sponsored by campaign efforts.
The increasing penetration of inverter-based resources (IBRs) is reshaping the dynamic behavior of power systems. IEEE standard 1547-2018 suggests that distributed energy resources (DERs) should provide grid services such as voltage and frequency supports. On the other hand, dynamic events caused by IBRs such as sub-synchronous oscillation have been reported. These developments necessitate improvement in the current modeling capabilities to better understand the interdependencies within power systems. These include interactions between transmission and distribution systems, among IBRs themselves, and between IBRs and conventional resources. In this paper, we present a co-simulation model integrating PSS/E, OpenDSS, and PSCAD to analyze IBR impacts on the stability of transmission and distribution systems. A key challenge in developing a co-simulation model is ensuring interoperability among different simulators (interfacing and data flow) while maintaining accurate results. Using the developed model, we simulate the impact of IBRs on power systems in two test cases: 1) fault ride through (FRT) capability during a generation trip contingency; 2) IBR-induced sub-synchronous oscillation. The results show the effectiveness of the co-simulation model.
Radiative transfer models are extensively used for the assimilation of satellite observations into NWP models as well as retrieving geophysical products from satellite measurements. The Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) is a community model developed by NOAA JCSDA and widely used for different purposes requiring RT calculations. CRTM requires bulk optical properties of hydrometeors in the form of lookup tables in order to perform all-sky RT calculations. However, the current cloud scattering lookup tables in CRTM assume spherical shapes for all frozen hydrometeors, whereas actual clouds contain frozen particles with diverse shapes. The first part of this talk presents the implementation and validation of a comprehensive Discrete Dipole Approximation (DDA) cloud scattering database into CRTM, specifically targeting microwave frequencies. The DDA technique proves effective in simulating the optical properties of non-spherical hydrometeors in the microwave region. The original DDA database assumes total random orientation in calculating single scattering properties. To generate the required mass scattering parameters for CRTM, the single scattering properties and water content dependent particle size distributions are used. The evaluation of results involved a collocated dataset comprising short-term forecasts from the Integrated Forecast System of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and satellite microwave data. The findings demonstrate that the DDA lookup tables significantly reduce discrepancies between simulated and observed values when compared to the Mie tables. Passive instruments lack the ability to provide vertically resolved measurements of clouds and precipitation, which can be obtained by active radar instruments. However, incorporating these active measurements into data assimilation systems presents challenges due to the absence of fast forward radiative transfer models and difficulties in error modeling. The second part of the talk focuses on the development, evaluation, and sensitivity analysis of a forward radar model integrated into CRTM. The forward radar model utilizes scattering properties obtained from hydrometeor lookup tables generated using the discrete dipole approximation. By utilizing CRTM instrument-specific coefficients, the model can calculate both reflectivity and attenuated reflectivity for any given radar instrument and zenith angles. Evaluation using CloudSat measurements demonstrates a strong agreement between simulations and observations when the input profiles of hydrometeors align with the measured reflectivity profiles.
Radiative transfer models are extensively used for the assimilation of satellite observations into NWP models as well as retrieving geophysical products from satellite measurements. The Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) is a community model developed by NOAA JCSDA and widely used for different purposes requiring RT calculations. CRTM requires bulk optical properties of hydrometeors in the form of lookup tables in order to perform all-sky RT calculations. However, the current cloud scattering lookup tables in CRTM assume spherical shapes for all frozen hydrometeors, whereas actual clouds contain frozen particles with diverse shapes. The first part of this talk presents the implementation and validation of a comprehensive Discrete Dipole Approximation (DDA) cloud scattering database into CRTM, specifically targeting microwave frequencies. The DDA technique proves effective in simulating the optical properties of non-spherical hydrometeors in the microwave region. The original DDA database assumes total random orientation in calculating single scattering properties. To generate the required mass scattering parameters for CRTM, the single scattering properties and water content dependent particle size distributions are used. The evaluation of results involved a collocated dataset comprising short-term forecasts from the Integrated Forecast System of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and satellite microwave data. The findings demonstrate that the DDA lookup tables significantly reduce discrepancies between simulated and observed values when compared to the Mie tables. Passive instruments lack the ability to provide vertically resolved measurements of clouds and precipitation, which can be obtained by active radar instruments. However, incorporating these active measurements into data assimilation systems presents challenges due to the absence of fast forward radiative transfer models and difficulties in error modeling. The second part of the talk focuses on the development, evaluation, and sensitivity analysis of a forward radar model integrated into CRTM. The forward radar model utilizes scattering properties obtained from hydrometeor lookup tables generated using the discrete dipole approximation. By utilizing CRTM instrument-specific coefficients, the model can calculate both reflectivity and attenuated reflectivity for any given radar instrument and zenith angles. Evaluation using CloudSat measurements demonstrates a strong agreement between simulations and observations when the input profiles of hydrometeors align with the measured reflectivity profiles.
Radiative transfer models are extensively used for the assimilation of satellite observations into NWP models as well as retrieving geophysical products from satellite measurements. The Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) is a community model developed by NOAA JCSDA and widely used for different purposes requiring RT calculations. CRTM requires bulk optical properties of hydrometeors in the form of lookup tables in order to perform all-sky RT calculations. However, the current cloud scattering lookup tables in CRTM assume spherical shapes for all frozen hydrometeors, whereas actual clouds contain frozen particles with diverse shapes. The first part of this talk presents the implementation and validation of a comprehensive Discrete Dipole Approximation (DDA) cloud scattering database into CRTM, specifically targeting microwave frequencies. The DDA technique proves effective in simulating the optical properties of non-spherical hydrometeors in the microwave region. The original DDA database assumes total random orientation in calculating single scattering properties. To generate the required mass scattering parameters for CRTM, the single scattering properties and water content dependent particle size distributions are used. The evaluation of results involved a collocated dataset comprising short-term forecasts from the Integrated Forecast System of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and satellite microwave data. The findings demonstrate that the DDA lookup tables significantly reduce discrepancies between simulated and observed values when compared to the Mie tables. Passive instruments lack the ability to provide vertically resolved measurements of clouds and precipitation, which can be obtained by active radar instruments. However, incorporating these active measurements into data assimilation systems presents challenges due to the absence of fast forward radiative transfer models and difficulties in error modeling. The second part of the talk focuses on the development, evaluation, and sensitivity analysis of a forward radar model integrated into CRTM. The forward radar model utilizes scattering properties obtained from hydrometeor lookup tables generated using the discrete dipole approximation. By utilizing CRTM instrument-specific coefficients, the model can calculate both reflectivity and attenuated reflectivity for any given radar instrument and zenith angles. Evaluation using CloudSat measurements demonstrates a strong agreement between simulations and observations when the input profiles of hydrometeors align with the measured reflectivity profiles.
This study focuses on the radiation effects 19 of Sr + ions—generated from high-altitude nuclear explosions (HANE)—on satellite solar cells in low-Earth orbits (LEO). Along four selected satellite orbits, ion fluences are sampled inside the evolving Sr + distributions for days, determined from our newly developed HANE environment model. These fluences, along with the help of radiation transport codes including the MULASSIS and SRIM models, enable us to quantify the radiation damages by determining the values of total ionizing doses and the equivalent 1 MeV electron fluences for displacement damages. Comparing the dose values to existing experimental data, we conclude that HANE-generated Sr + ions have limited darkening effects to quartz solar cell coverglasses in LEO with apogees of 100s to 1000 km. In addition, with the extremely high equivalent fluences, we also conclude that these Sr+ ions may cause severe or even fatal displacement damage to exposed solar photovoltaic (PV) cells on satellites in LEO. The radiation effects of Sr + ions are much less significant for the orbits with high apogees beyond ten thousand km. We also conducted model parameter sensitivity studies on the charge exchange cross-sections, neutral atmosphere density profiles and explosion local time positions, and the above conclusions stay unchanged. The methodology developed in this study can be extended to other HANE-generated heavy ion species in the future.
With increasing adverse weather events and disasters, enabling resiliency of the power distribution system (PDS) is becoming increasingly important. Here in this work, resiliency is defined as the systems ability to keep supplying critical loads even with multiple contingencies. Resiliency may depend on: (a) advanced tools to assist operators in situational awareness and decision making with the increasing volume of data generated by the PDS, (b) visualization and ease of interaction with system resources and information, especially during extreme events and resulting human operator stress, and (c) flexible resources and autonomous control. Operators and support engineers need to interact with the system for key information and take action under stress, given the requirement for decisions in a short time. Integrated technological solutions are prevailing steps to support the most appropriate decision during critical times to serve essential loads. In order to meet the required goals, a Real-time Resiliency Monitoring and Operational Decision Support (RT-RMOD) tool have been developed. It supports various functionalities, including real-time monitoring, resilience assessment, and proactive decision support. However, this work makes advanced feature additions to the tool by developing data-enabled resilience management algorithms for (i) outage detection and localization, (ii) Resiliency-metric driven restoration and reconfiguration, and (iii) NLP based digital assistant for operators called DINGO (DIgital assistaNt to Grid Operators) to interact with Advanced Distribution Management System (ADMS) and RT-RMOD. The developed algorithm was validated for multiple cases of weather events using a real-world, off-grid microgrid system modeled in a real-time simulator, sensor data, and software tools.
The NASA LeRC in Cleveland, Ohio has completed the development and integration of a Power Management and Distribution (PMAD) DC Testbed. This testbed is a reduced scale representation of the end to end, sources to loads, Space Station Freedom Electrical Power System (SSF EPS). This unique facility is being used to demonstrate DC power generation and distribution, power management and control, and system operation techniques considered to be prime candidates for the Space Station Freedom. A key capability of the testbed is its ability to be configured to address system level issues in support of critical SSF program design milestones. Electrical power system control and operation issues like source control, source regulation, system fault protection, end-to-end system stability, health monitoring, resource allocation, and resource management are being evaluated in the testbed. The SSF EPS control functional allocation between on-board computers and ground based systems is evolving. Initially, ground based systems will perform the bulk of power system control and operation. The EPS control system is required to continuously monitor and determine the current state of the power system. The DC Testbed Control System consists of standard controllers arranged in a hierarchical and distributed architecture. These controllers provide all the monitoring and control functions for the DC Testbed Electrical Power System. Higher level controllers include the Power Management Controller, Load Management Controller, Operator Interface System, and a network of computer systems that perform some of the SSF Ground based Control Center Operation. The lower level controllers include Main Bus Switch Controllers and Photovoltaic Controllers. Power system status information is periodically provided to the higher level controllers to perform system control and operation. The data acquisition function of the control system is distributed among the various levels of the hierarchy. Data requirements are dictated by the control system algorithms being implemented at each level. A functional description of the various levels of the testbed control system architecture, the data acquisition function, and the status of its implementationis presented.
As expert systems become more widely used, their access to large amounts of external information becomes increasingly important. This information exists in several forms such as statistical, tabular data, knowledge gained by experts and large databases of information maintained by companies. Because many expert systems, including CLIPS, do not provide access to this external information, much of the usefulness of expert systems is left untapped. The scope of this paper is to describe a database extension for the CLIPS expert system shell. The current industry standard database language is SQL. Due to SQL standardization, large amounts of information stored on various computers, potentially at different locations, will be more easily accessible. Expert systems should be able to directly access these existing databases rather than requiring information to be re-entered into the expert system environment. The ORACLE relational database management system (RDBMS) was used to provide a database connection within the CLIPS environment. To facilitate relational database access a query generation system was developed as a CLIPS user function. The queries are entered in a CLlPS-like syntax and are passed to the query generator, which constructs and submits for execution, an SQL query to the ORACLE RDBMS. The query results are asserted as CLIPS facts. The query generator was developed primarily for use within the ICADS project (Intelligent Computer Aided Design System) currently being developed by the CAD Research Unit in the California Polytechnic State University (Cal Poly). In ICADS, there are several parallel or distributed expert systems accessing a common knowledge base of facts. Expert system has a narrow domain of interest and therefore needs only certain portions of the information. The query generator provides a common method of accessing this information and allows the expert system to specify what data is needed without specifying how to retrieve it.
The 1999 Puget Sound Household Travel Survey was conducted between July and November. NuStats Research and Consulting conducted the survey on behalf of the Puget Sound Regional Council. The purpose of the study was to provide data to continue developing and refining the Regional Travel Demand Forecasting Model, as well as to provide a better understanding of travel behavior in the Puget Sound region. The study area consists of King, Kitsap, Pierce, and Snohomish counties. The resultant dataset will be used to fulfill the model's functions of estimating trip generation and distribution, mode choice, and assignments. The study had household members 16 years old or older keep track of travel for a 48-hour period. A total of 9,028 households were recruited to participate in the study. Of these, 6,000 households (66.5%) completed travel diaries, and the information was retrieved from all household members regardless of age. An “attitude” survey about transportation and land use issues was also mailed to household members 16 years old or older.
This document discusses the nature of light (including classical light and photons), encryption, quantum key distribution (QKD), light polarization and beamsplitters and their application to information communication. A quantum of light represents the smallest possible subdivision of radiant energy (light) and is called a photon. The QKD key generation sequence is outlined including the receiver broadcasting the initial signal indicating reception availability, timing pulses from the sender to provide reference for gated detection of photons, the sender generating photons through random polarization while the receiver detects photons with random polarization and communicating via data link to mutually establish random keys. The QKD network vision includes inter-SATCOM, point-to-point Gnd Fiber and SATCOM-fiber nodes. QKD offers an unconditionally secure method of exchanging encryption keys. Ongoing research will focus on how to increase the key generation rate.
For a track based polarimeter, such as the Imaging X-ray Polarimetry Explorer (IXPE), the sensitivity to polarization depends on the modulation factor, which is a strong function of energy. In previous work, a likelihood method was developed that would account for this variation in order to estimate the minimum detectable polarization (MDP). That method essentially required that the position angles of individual events should be known precisely. In a separate work, however, it was shown that using a machine-learning method for measuring event tracks can generate track angle uncertainties, which can be used in the analysis. Here, the maximum likelihood method is used as a basis for revising the estimate of the MDP in a general way that can include uncertainties in event track position angles. The resultant MDP depends solely upon the distribution of track angle uncertainties present in the input data. Due to the physics of the IXPE detectors, it is possible to derive a simple relationship between these angular uncertainties and the energy-dependent modulation function as a step in the process.
This chapter studies the output power regulation in wind farms consisting of doubly-fed induction generator wind turbines, one of the most popular generator configurations in modern multi-MW wind industry, equipped with on-site battery energy storage systems. Traditionally, wind farms were operated as standalone units or were equipped with a central, large-scale, energy storage system. In fact, most of the existing control designs for hybrid wind-storage applications are centralized, where the central unit collects the measured data from all wind turbines and storage systems (if they exist) and compares with the load demand to generate the reference power for each wind turbine controller. Those centralized setups or control structures do not fully exploit the flexibility and locality of the on-site energy storage systems in a wind farm. Moreover, the storage functionality is lost if the central storage system is broken down, while in a distributed architecture, a failure only affects individual on-site storage systems and the others will still operate. Therefore, on-site storage systems and distributed control designs need to be developed for wind farms to provide regulation services for the grid. An approach to tackle that challenge will be presented in this chapter.
A technique has been developed to obtain a characterization of the self-generated environment of a spacecraft and its variation with time, angular position, and distance. The density, pressure, outgassing flux, total weight loss, and other important parameters were obtained from data provided by two mass measuring crystal microbalances, mounted back to back, at distance of 1 m from the spacecraft equivalent surface. A major outgassing source existed at an angular position of 300 deg to 340 deg, near the rocket motor, while the weakest source was at the antennas. The strongest source appeared to be caused by a material diffusion process which produced a directional density at 1 m distance of about 1.6 x 10 to the 11th power molecules/cu cm after 1 hr in vacuum and decayed to 1.6 x 10 to the 9th power molecules/cu cm after 200 hr. The total average outgassing flux at the same distance and during the same time span changed from 1.2 x 10 to the minus 7th power to 1.4 x to the minus 10th power g/sq cm/s. These values are three times as large at the spacecraft surface. Total weight loss was 537 g after 10 hr and about 833 g after 200 hr. Self-contamination of the spacecraft was equivalent to that in orbit at about 300-km altitude.