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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Modified Eigen-Decomposition-based Interval Analysis (MEDIA) for Power System Dynamic State Estimation

The Bayesian approach has been used for the dynamic state estimation (DSE) of a power system. However, due to the complexity of noise resources, it is difficult to quantify measurement and process noise using probability density functions (PDFs). To overcome the difficulty, the authors of this paper propose a modified eigen-decomposition-based interval analysis (MEDIA) method, which employs bounds instead of PDFs to quantify the noise, and uses the eigen decomposition method to reduce the negative impact of the overestimation problem. Using the simulation data generated from IEEE 16-machine and IEEE 10-machine systems, it is shown that the proposed MEDIA method can estimate the hard boundaries of dynamic states in real time. Furthermore, comparison with the forward-backward propagation method and the extended set-membership filter also shows that the proposed MEDIA method performs better by providing narrower boundaries in the DSE.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2018

Flexible classification with spatial quantile comparison and novel statistical features applied to spent nuclear fuel analysis

Multivariate classification algorithms are a common tool in contemporary data science that have begun to be applied to nuclear forensic analyses. Using a multivariate generalization of quantile–quantile plots for comparing unknown statistical distributions, a new model-free multivariate classifier called the Quantile–Quantile Comparator has been developed and tested on the analysis of simulated irradiated nuclear fuel. A method to estimate the sample-specific probability of having made an incorrect classification decision by analyzing the distribution of quantile comparisons has been developed, and methods have been developed to analyze the partition of the known data library used to analyze unknown data. By analyzing this partition, the analyst may identify classes that are likely to be confused, identify test data that are inconsistent with the data library and return a “None-of-the-Above” classification decision, and optimize the class boundaries. In this paper, the development of these capabilities is described, and a case study using real experimental assay data collected from nuclear fuel extracted from the newly-released In conclusion, Spent Fuel Isotopic Composition Database to demonstrate the efficacy of these capabilities is presented.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A 3D Full Stress Tensor Model for Oklahoma

Abstract The stress tensor is an important property for upper crustal studies such as those that involve pore fluids and earthquake hazards. At tectonic plate scale, plate boundary forces and mantle convection are the primary drivers of the stress field. In many local settings (10–100 s of km and <10 km depth) in tectonic plate interiors, we can simplify by assuming a constant background stress field that is perturbed by local heterogeneity in density and elasticity. Local stress orientation and sometimes magnitude can be estimated from earthquake and borehole‐based observations when available. Modeling of the local stress field often involves interpolating sparse observations. We present a new method to estimate the 3D stress field in the upper crust and demonstrate it for Oklahoma. We created a 3D material model by inverting multiple types of geophysical observations simultaneously. Integrating surface‐wave dispersion, local travel times and gravity observations produces a model of P‐wave velocity, S‐wave velocity, and density. The stress field can then be modeled using finite element simulations. The simulations are performed using our simplified view of the local stress field as the sum of a constant background stress field that is perturbed by local density and elasticity heterogeneity and gravitational body forces. An orientation of N82°E, for the maximum compressive tectonic force, best agrees with previously observed stress orientations and faulting types in Oklahoma. The gravitational contribution of the horizontal stress field has a magnitude comparable to the tectonic contribution for the upper 5 km of the subsurface.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

A new method to trace three-dimensional magnetic field structure within molecular clouds using dust polarization

The complete three-dimensional structure of the magnetic field within molecular clouds has eluded determination despite its high value in determining controlling factors in the star formation process, as it cannot be directly probed observationally. Considering that inclination of the magnetic field relative to the plane of sky is one of the major sources of depolarization of thermal emission from dust in molecular clouds, we propose a new method to estimate the inclination angle of the cloud-scale magnetic field based on the statistical properties of the observed polarization fraction. We test this method using a series of Monte Carlo experiments and find that the method works well, provided that deviations of magnetic field direction from the averaged values are small. When applied to synthetic observations of numerical simulations of star-forming clouds, our method gives fairly accurate measurements of the mean magnetic field inclination angle (within 10°–25°), which can further be improved if we restrict our technique to regions of low dispersion in polarization angles S. We tested our method on the BLASTPol polarimetric observations of the Vela C molecular cloud complex, which suggests that the magnetic field of Vela C has a high inclination angle (~60°), consistent with previous analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Scalable Meter Placement Method for Distribution System State Estimation

This paper studies the optimal meter placement problem for distribution system state estimation given limited measurement resources. We formulate the problem as a mixed integer semi-definite programming that minimizes the worst case estimation errors over a set of operating points. To solve the problem, we first relax the problem as a convex optimization problem. Motivated by the lack of scalability of existing solvers, we next leverage the special structure of the cost function and propose an algorithm based on barrier method that solves the problem with significantly better numerical performance. The proposed method has been validated on the IEEE 13-bus, IEEE 123-bus, and IEEE 8,500-bus feeders.

barrier method↗
NASA NTRS1977

Methods for the evaluation of alternative disaster warning systems. Executive summary

Methods for estimating the economic costs and benefits of the transmission-reception and reception-action segments of a disaster warning system (DWS) are described. Methods were identified for the evaluation of the transmission and reception portions of alternative disaster warning systems. Example analyses using the methods identified were performed.

Agnew, C. E.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Validation of Ocean Color Satellite Data Products in Under Sampled Marine Areas

The planktonic marine cyanobacterium, Trichodesmium sp., is broadly distributed throughout the oligotrophic marine tropical and sub-tropical oceans. Trichodesmium, which typically occurs in macroscopic bundles or colonies, is noteworthy for its ability to form large surface aggregations and to fix dinitrogen gas. The latter is important because primary production supported by N2 fixation can result in a net export of carbon from the surface waters to deep ocean and may therefore play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. However, information on the distribution and density of Trichodesmium from shipboard measurements through the oligotrophic oceans is very sparse. Such estimates are required to quantitatively estimate total global rates of N2 fixation. As a result current global rate estimates are highly uncertain. Thus in order to understand the broader biogeochemical importance of Trichodesmium and N2 fixation in the oceans, we need better methods to estimate the global temporal and spatial variability of this organism. One approach that holds great promise is satellite remote sensing. Satellite ocean color sensors are ideal instruments for estimating global phytoplankton biomass, especially that due to episodic blooms, because they provide relatively high frequency synoptic information over large areas. Trichodesmium has a combination of specific ultrastructural and biochemical features that lend themselves to identification of this organism by remote sensing. Specifically, these features are high backscatter due to the presence of gas vesicles, and absorption and fluorescence of phycoerythrin. The resulting optical signature is relatively unique and should be detectable with satellite ocean color sensors such as the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS).

Subramaniam, Ajit↗
NASA NTRS2009

Measuring the Photocatalytic Breakdown of Crystal Violet Dye using a Light Emitting Diode Approach

A simple method to estimate the photocatalytic reactivity performance of spray-on titanium dioxide coatings for transmissive glass surfaces was developed. This novel technique provides a standardized method to evaluate the efficiency of photocatalytic material systems over a variety of illumination levels. To date, photocatalysis assessments have generally been conducted using mercury black light lamps. Illumination levels for these types of lamps are difficult to vary, consequently limiting their use for assessing material performance under a diverse range of simulated environmental conditions. This new technique uses an ultraviolet (UV) gallium nitride (GaN) light emitting diode (LED) array instead of a traditional black light to initiate and sustain photocatalytic breakdown. This method was tested with a UV-resistant dye (crystal violet) applied to a titanium dioxide coated glass slide. Experimental control is accomplished by applying crystal violet to both titanium dioxide coated slides and uncoated control slides. A slide is illuminated by the UV LED array, at various light levels representative of outdoor and indoor conditions, from the dye side of the slide. To monitor degradation of the dye over time, a temperature-stabilized white light LED, whose emission spectrum overlaps with the dye absorption spectrum, is used to illuminate the opposite side of the slide. Using a spectrometer, the amount of light from the white light LED transmitted through the slide as the dye degrades is monitored as a function of wavelength and time and is subsequently analyzed. In this way, the rate of degradation for photocatalytically coated versus uncoated slide surfaces can be compared. Results demonstrate that the dye absorption decreased much more rapidly on the photocatalytically coated slides than on the control uncoated slides, and that dye degradation is dependent on illumination level. For photocatalytic activity assessment purposes, this experimental configuration and methodology minimizes many external variable effects and enables small changes in absorption to be measured. This research also compares the advantages of this innovative LED light source design over traditional mercury black light systems and non- LED lamp approaches. This novel technology begins to address the growing need for a standard method that can assess the performance of photocatalytic materials before deployment for large scale, real world use.

Ryan, Robert E.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Numerical Uncertainty Analysis for Computational Fluid Dynamics using Student T Distribution -- Application of CFD Uncertainty Analysis Compared to Exact Analytical Solution

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is the standard numerical tool used by Fluid Dynamists to estimate solutions to many problems in academia, government, and industry. CFD is known to have errors and uncertainties and there is no universally adopted method to estimate such quantities. This paper describes an approach to estimate CFD uncertainties strictly numerically using inputs and the Student-T distribution. The approach is compared to an exact analytical solution of fully developed, laminar flow between infinite, stationary plates. It is shown that treating all CFD input parameters as oscillatory uncertainty terms coupled with the Student-T distribution can encompass the exact solution.

Groves, Curtis E.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Cs-135 Content of Cesium Capsules and Strontium/Cesium Heat Sources - 18509

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for disposing of 1,335 cesium capsules and 34 strontium and cesium heat sources that are currently stored at the Hanford Site. The documented radionuclide inventories for these wastes report quantities of Sr-90 and Cs-137 but do not report quantities of other strontium and cesium isotopes, some of which need to be estimated for the purpose of conducting a postclosure performance assessment for the eventual disposal facility. The purpose of this paper is to present a method for estimating the quantity of Cs-135 present in the cesium capsules and in the strontium/cesium heat sources. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2011

Estimation of Time-Varying Pilot Model Parameters

Human control behavior is rarely completely stationary over time due to fatigue or loss of attention. In addition, there are many control tasks for which human operators need to adapt their control strategy to vehicle dynamics that vary in time. In previous studies on the identification of time-varying pilot control behavior wavelets were used to estimate the time-varying frequency response functions. However, the estimation of time-varying pilot model parameters was not considered. Estimating these parameters can be a valuable tool for the quantification of different aspects of human time-varying manual control. This paper presents two methods for the estimation of time-varying pilot model parameters, a two-step method using wavelets and a windowed maximum likelihood estimation method. The methods are evaluated using simulations of a closed-loop control task with time-varying pilot equalization and vehicle dynamics. Simulations are performed with and without remnant. Both methods give accurate results when no pilot remnant is present. The wavelet transform is very sensitive to measurement noise, resulting in inaccurate parameter estimates when considerable pilot remnant is present. Maximum likelihood estimation is less sensitive to pilot remnant, but cannot detect fast changes in pilot control behavior.

Zaal, Peter M. T.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Long-term nitrogen dioxide exposure assessment using back-extrapolation of satellite-based land-use regression models for Australia

Highlights: • We assessed how well a year-2006 satellite-based LUR model captures historical NO{sub 2}. • We used three methods to estimate annual mean NO{sub 2} during 1990–2005. • We measured their performance using standard LUR validation techniques. • Back-extrapolated 2006 levels captured up to 76% of spatial variability (90–05). Assessing historical exposure to air pollution in epidemiological studies is often problematic because of limited spatial and temporal measurement coverage. Several methods for modelling historical exposures have been described, including land-use regression (LUR). Satellite-based LUR is a recent technique that seeks to improve predictive ability and spatial coverage of traditional LUR models by using satellite observations of pollutants as inputs to LUR. Few studies have explored its validity for assessing historical exposures, reflecting the absence of historical observations from popular satellite platforms like Aura (launched mid-2004). We investigated whether contemporary satellite-based LUR models for Australia, developed longitudinally for 2006–2011, could capture nitrogen dioxide (NO{sub 2}) concentrations during 1990–2005 at 89 sites around the country. We assessed three methods to back-extrapolate year-2006 NO{sub 2} predictions: (1) ‘do nothing’ (i.e., use the year-2006 estimates directly, for prior years); (2) change the independent variable ‘year’ in our LUR models to match the years of interest (i.e., assume a linear trend prior to year-2006, following national average patterns in 2006–2011), and; (3) adjust year-2006 predictions using selected historical measurements. We evaluated prediction error and bias, and the correlation and absolute agreement of measurements and predictions using R{sup 2} and mean-square error R{sup 2} (MSE-R{sup 2}), respectively. We found that changing the year variable led to best performance; predictions captured between 41% (1991; MSE-R{sup 2} = 31%) and 80% (2003; MSE-R{sup 2} = 78%) of spatial variability in NO{sub 2} in a given year, and 76% (MSE-R{sup 2} = 72%) averaged over 1990–2005. We conclude that simple methods for back-extrapolating prior to year-2006 yield valid historical NO{sub 2} estimates for Australia during 1990–2005. These results suggest that for the time scales considered here, satellite-based LUR has a potential role to play in long-term exposure assessment, even in the absence of historical predictor data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Efficient verification of anticoncentrated quantum states

I present a method for estimating the fidelity F(μ, τ) between a preparable quantum state μ and a classically specified pure target state τ=|τ> <τ|, using simple quantum circuits and on-the-fly classical calculation (or lookup) of selected amplitudes of |τ>. The method is sample efficient for anticoncentrated states (including many states that are hard to simulate classically), with approximate cost 4ϵ –2 (1 – F)dpcoll where ϵ is the desired precision of the estimate, d is the dimension of the Hilbert space, and pcoll is the collision probability of the target distribution. Furthermore, this scaling is exponentially better than that of any method based on classical sampling. I also present a more sophisticated version of the method that uses any efficiently preparable and well-characterized quantum state as an importance sampler to further reduce the number of copies of μ needed. Though some challenges remain, this work takes a significant step toward scalable verification of complex states produced by quantum processors.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2019

Estimation of RTT and Loss Rate of Wide-Area Connections Using MPI Measurements

Scientific computations are expected to be increasingly distributed across wide-area networks, and the Message Passing Interface (MPI) has been shown to scale to support their communications over long distances. These computations should account for certain network parameters to ensure an effective execution, for example, by avoiding highly congested and long connections. The execution times of MPI basic operations reflect the connection parameters, including the Round Trip Time (RTT) and loss rate. We describe five machine leaning methods to estimate the connection RTT and loss rate using execution times of MPI basic operations. We utilize execution time measurements of MPI Sendrecv operations collected over emulated 10 Gbps connections with 0-366 ms round-trip times, wherein the longest connection spans the globe, under up to 20% periodic losses. These methods provide disparate, namely, linear and non-linear, and smooth and non-smooth, estimates of RTT and loss rate. Our results show that accurate estimates can be generated at low loss rates but they become inaccurate at loss rates 10% and higher. Overall, these results constitute a case study of the strengths and limitations of machine learning methods in inferring network-level parameters using application-level measurements.

Rao, Nageswara S.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Method and system for diagnostics of apparatus

Proposed is a method, implemented in software, for estimating fault state of an apparatus outfitted with sensors. At each execution period the method processes sensor data from the apparatus to obtain a set of parity parameters, which are further used for estimating fault state. The estimation method formulates a convex optimization problem for each fault hypothesis and employs a convex solver to compute fault parameter estimates and fault likelihoods for each fault hypothesis. The highest likelihoods and corresponding parameter estimates are transmitted to a display device or an automated decision and control system. The obtained accurate estimate of fault state can be used to improve safety, performance, or maintenance processes for the apparatus.

Gorinevsky, Dimitry↗
NASA NTRS2017

Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk From Reentering Space Objects

A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the Earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Ostrom, Chris L.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Improving Estimation of Ground Casualty Risk from Reentering Space Objects

A recent improvement to the long-term estimation of ground casualties from reentering space debris is the further refinement and update to the human population distribution. Previous human population distributions were based on global totals with simple scaling factors for future years, or a coarse grid of population counts in a subset of the world's countries, each cell having its own projected growth rate. The newest population model includes a 5-fold refinement in both latitude and longitude resolution. All areas along a single latitude are combined to form a global population distribution as a function of latitude, creating a more accurate population estimation based on non-uniform growth at the country and area levels. Previous risk probability calculations used simplifying assumptions that did not account for the ellipsoidal nature of the earth. The new method uses first, a simple analytical method to estimate the amount of time spent above each latitude band for a debris object with a given orbit inclination, and second, a more complex numerical method that incorporates the effects of a non-spherical Earth. These new results are compared with the prior models to assess the magnitude of the effects on reentry casualty risk.

Ostrom, C.↗