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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2013

Transporting non-Gaussianity from sub to super-horizon scales

We extend the 'moment transport method' for calculating the statistics of inflationary perturbations to the quantum phase of evolution on sub-horizon scales. The quantum transport equations form a set of coupled ordinary differential equations for the evolution of quantum correlation functions during inflation, which are valid on sub- and super-horizon scales, and reduce to the known classical transport equations after horizon crossing. The classical and quantum equations follow directly from the field equations of cosmological perturbation theory. In this paper, we focus on how the evolution equations arise, and explore how transport methods relate to other approaches, and in particular how formal integral solutions to the transport equations connect to those of the In-In formalism.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tracer-field cross-correlations with k -nearest neighbour distributions

ABSTRACT In astronomy and cosmology significant effort is devoted to characterizing and understanding spatial cross-correlations between points – e.g galaxy positions, high energy neutrino arrival directions, X-ray and AGN sources, and continuous fields – e.g. weak lensing meiand Cosmic Microwave Background maps. Recently, we introduced the k-nearest neighbour (kNN) formalism to better characterize the clustering of discrete (point) data sets. Here, we extend it to the point – field cross-correlations analysis. It combines kNN measurements of the point data set with measurements of the field smoothed at many scales. The resulting statistics are sensitive to all orders in the joint clustering of the points and the field. We demonstrate that this approach, unlike the 2-pt cross-correlation, can measure the statistical dependence of two data sets even when there are no linear (Gaussian) correlations between them. We further demonstrate that this framework is far more effective than the two point function in detecting cross-correlations when the continuous field is contaminated by high levels of noise. For a particularly high level of noise, the cross-correlation between haloes and the underlying matter field in a cosmological simulation, between 10 h−1 Mpc and 30 h−1 Mpc, is detected at >5σ significance using the technique presented here, when the two-point cross-correlation significance is ∼1σ. Finally, we show that kNN cross-correlations of haloes and the matter field can be well modelled on quasi-linear scales using the Hybrid Effective Field Theory (HEFT) framework, with the same set of bias parameters as are used for 2-pt cross-correlations. The substantial improvement in the statistical power of detecting cross-correlations using this method makes it a promising tool for various cosmological applications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Optimal Zeno Dragging for Quantum Control: A Shortcut to Zeno with Action-Based Scheduling Optimization

The quantum Zeno effect asserts that quantum measurements inhibit simultaneous unitary dynamics when the “collapse” events are sufficiently strong and frequent. This applies in the limit of strong continuous measurement or dissipation. It is possible to implement a dissipative control that is known as “Zeno dragging” by dynamically varying the monitored observable, and hence also the eigenstates, which are attractors under Zeno dynamics. This is similar to adiabatic processes, in that the Zeno-dragging fidelity is highest when the rate of eigenstate change is slow compared to the measurement rate. We demonstrate here two theoretical methods for using such dynamics to achieve control of quantum systems. The first, which we shall refer to as “shortcut to Zeno,” is analogous to the shortcuts to adiabaticity (counterdiabatic driving) that are frequently used to accelerate unitary adiabatic evolution. In the second approach, we apply the Chantasri-Dressel-Jordan stochastic action [PRA 88, 042110 (2013)], and demonstrate that the extremal-probability readout paths derived from this are well suited to setting up a Pontryagin-style optimization of the Zeno-dragging schedule. A fundamental contribution of the latter approach is to show that an action suitable for measurement-driven control optimization can be derived quite generally from statistical arguments. Implementing these methods on the Zeno dragging of a qubit, we find that both approaches yield the same solution, namely, that the optimal control is a unitary that matches the motion of the Zeno-monitored eigenstate. We then show that such a solution can be more robust than a unitary-only operation and we comment on solvable generalizations of our qubit example embedded in larger systems. These methods open up new pathways toward systematically developing dynamic control of Zeno subspaces to realize dissipatively stabilized quantum operations. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2019

Conditioning multi-model ensembles for disease forecasting

In this study we investigate how an ensemble of disease models can be conditioned to observational data, in a bid to improve its predictive skill. We use the ensemble of influenza forecasting models gathered by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as the exemplar. This ensemble is used every year to forecast the annual influenza outbreak in the United States. The models constituting this ensemble draw on very different modeling assumptions and approximations and are a diverse collection of methods to approximate epidemiological dynamics. Currently, each models' predictions are accorded the same importance, or weight, when compiling the ensemble's forecast. We consider this equally-weighted ensemble as the baseline case which has to be improved upon. In this study, we explore whether an ensemble forecast can be improved by "conditioning" the ensemble to whatever observational data is available from the ongoing outbreak. "Conditioning" can imply according the ensemble's members different weights which evolve over time, or simply perform the forecast using the top k (equally-weighted) models. In the latter case, the composition of the "top-k-see of models evolves over time. This is called "model averaging" in statistics. We explore four methods to perform model-averaging, three of which are new. We find that the CDC ensemble responds best to the "top-k-models" approach to model-averaging. All the new MA methods perform better than the baseline equally-weighted ensemble. The four model-averaging methods treat the models as black-boxes and simply use their forecasts as inputs i.e., one does not need access to the models at all, but rather only their forecasts. The model-averaging approaches reviewed in this report thus form a general framework for model-averaging any model ensemble.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Statistically Rigorous Uncertainty Quantification for Physical Parameter Model Calibration with Functional Output

In experiments conducted on the Z-machine at Sandia National Laboratories, dynamic material properties cannot be analyzed using traditional analytic methods, necessitating solving an inverse problem. Bayesian model calibration is a statistical framework for solving an inverse problem to estimate parameters input into a computational model in the presence of multiple uncertainties. Disentangling input parameter uncertainty and model misspecification is often poorly identified problem. When using computational models for physical parameter estimation, the issue of parameter identifiability must be carefully considered to obtain accurate and precise estimates of physical parameters. Additionally, in dynamic material properties applications, the experimental output is a function, velocity over time. While we can sample an arbitrarily large number of points from the measured velocity, these curves only contain a finite amount of information about the calibration parameters. In this report, we propose modifications to the Bayesian model calibration framework to simplify and improve the estimation of physical parameters with functional outputs. Specifically, we propose scaling the likelihood function by an effective sample size rather than modeling the discrepancy function; and modularizing input nuisance parameters with weakly identified parameters. We evaluate the performance of these proposed methods using a statistical simulation study and then apply these methods to estimate parameters of the tantalum equation of state. We conclude that these proposed methods can provide simple, fast, and statistically valid alternatives to the full Bayesian model calibration procedure; and that these methods can be used to estimate parameters of the equation of state for tantalum.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Quantifying Safety Margin Using the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC)

The Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC), developed by Idaho National Laboratory as part of the Light-Water Reactor Sustainability Project, utilizes a probabilistic safety margin comparison between a load and capacity distribution, rather than a deterministic comparison between two values, as is usually done in best-estimate plus uncertainty analyses. The goal is to determine the failure probability, or in other words, the probability of the system load equaling or exceeding the system capacity. While this method has been used in pilot studies, there has been little work conducted investigating the statistical significance of the resulting failure probability. In particular, it is difficult to determine how many simulations are necessary to properly characterize the failure probability. This work uses classical (frequentist) statistics and confidence intervals to examine the impact in statistical accuracy when the number of simulations is varied. Two methods are proposed to establish confidence intervals related to the failure probability established using a RISMC analysis. The confidence interval provides information about the statistical accuracy of the method utilized to explore the uncertainty space, and offers a quantitative method to gauge the increase in statistical accuracy due to performing additional simulations.

Grabaskas, David↗
DOE OSTI2017

Comparison of methane emission estimates from multiple measurement techniques at natural gas production pads

This study presents the results of a campaign that estimated methane emissions at 268 gas production facilities in the Fayetteville shale gas play using onsite measurements (261 facilities) and two downwind methods - the dual tracer flux ratio method (Tracer Facility Estimate - TFE, 17 facilities) and the EPA Other Test Method 33a (OTM33A Facility Estimate - OFE, 50 facilities). A study onsite estimate (SOE) for each facility was developed by combining direct measurements and simulation of unmeasured emission sources, using operator activity data and emission data from literature. The SOE spans 0-403 kg/h and simulated methane emissions from liquid unloadings account for 88% of total emissions estimated by the SOE, with 76% (95% CI [51%-92%]) contributed by liquid unloading at two facilities. TFE and SOE show overlapping 95% CI between individual estimates at 15 of 16 (94%) facilities where the measurements were paired, while OFE and SOE show overlapping 95% CI between individual estimates at 28 of 43 (65%) facilities. However, variance-weighted least-squares (VWLS) regressions performed on sets of paired estimates indicate statistically significant differences between methods. The SOE represents a lower bound of emissions at facilities where onsite direct measurements of continuously emitting sources are the primary contributor to the SOE, a sub-selection of facilities which minimizes expected inter-method differences for intermittent pneumatic controllers and the impact of episodically-emitting unloadings. At 9 such facilities, VWLS indicates that TFE estimates systematically higher emissions than SOE (TFE-to-SOE ratio = 1.6, 95% CI [1.2 to 2.1]). At 20 such facilities, VWLS indicates that OFE estimates systematically lower emissions than SOE (OFE-to-SOE ratio of 0.41 [0.26 to 0.90]). Given that SOE at these facilities is a lower limit on emissions, these results indicate that OFE is likely a less accurate method than SOE or TFE for this type of facility.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Hybrid feature selection approach for power transformer fault diagnosis based on support vector machine and genetic algorithm

To further improve fault diagnosis accuracy, a new hybrid feature selection approach combined with a genetic algorithm (GA) and support vector machine (SVM) is presented in this study. Adaptive synthetic technique and arctangent transformation method are adopted to improve the statistical property of the training set (IEC TC10 dataset). Five filter methods based on different evaluation metrics are employed to rank 48 input features derived from dissolved gas analysis (DGA). Then, feature combination methods are applied to aggregate feature ranks and form a lower-dimension candidate feature subset. The GA-SVM model is implemented to optimise parameters and select optimal feature subsets. 5-fold cross-validation accuracy of the GA-SVM is used to evaluate fault diagnosis capability of feature subsets and finally, a novel subset is determined as the optimal feature subset. Accuracy comparison manifests the superiority of the optimal feature subsets over that of conventional approaches. Besides, generalisation and robustness of the optimal subset are validated by testing DGA samples from the local power utility. Results indicate that the optimal feature subset obtained by the proposed method can significantly improve the accuracies of power transformer fault diagnosis.

Kari, Tusongjiang↗
DOE OSTI2024

A road map to cosmological parameter analysis with third-order shear statistics: III. Efficient estimation of third-order shear correlation functions and an application to the KiDS-1000 data

Context. Third-order lensing statistics contain a wealth of cosmological information that is not captured by second-order statistics. However, the computational effort it takes to estimate such statistics in forthcoming stage IV surveys is prohibitively expensive. Aims. We derive and validate an efficient estimation procedure for the three-point correlation function (3PCF) of polar fields such as weak lensing shear. We then use our approach to measure the shear 3PCF and the third-order aperture mass statistics on the KiDS-1000 survey. Methods We constructed an efficient estimator for third-order shear statistics that builds on the multipole decomposition of the 3PCF. We then validated our estimator on mock ellipticity catalogs obtained from N -body simulations. Finally, we applied our estimator to the KiDS-1000 data and presented a measurement of the third-order aperture statistics in a tomographic setup. Results. Our estimator provides a speedup of a factor of ∼100–1000 compared to the state-of-the-art estimation procedures. It is also able to provide accurate measurements for squeezed and folded triangle configurations without additional computational effort. We report a significant detection of tomographic third-order aperture mass statistics in the KiDS-1000 data (S/N = 6.69). Conclusions. Our estimator will make it computationally feasible to measure third-order shear statistics in forthcoming stage IV surveys. Furthermore, it can be used to construct empirical covariance matrices for such statistics.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2018

Application of combined optical signal processing methods to compensate for nonlinear effects in fibre-optic communication links

We report on the use of complex quadrature amplitude signal processing methods based on a combination of static neural networks and special modulation techniques. The conditions are found that allow one to construct the most effective combination of signal processing methods for transmitting signals with considerable power (in the nonlinear regime). Using analytical methods, it is shown how the statistical properties of a signal affect the efficiency of combined processing methods. (paper)

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2015

Direct numerical simulation of turbulent flow in a rotating square duct

A fully developed turbulent flow in a rotating straight square duct is simulated by direct numerical simulations at Re{sub τ} = 300 and 0 ≤ Ro{sub τ} ≤ 40. The rotating axis is parallel to two opposite walls of the duct and normal to the main flow. Variations of the turbulence statistics with the rotation rate are presented, and a comparison with the rotating turbulent channel flow is discussed. Rich secondary flow patterns in the cross section are observed by varying the rotation rate. The appearance of a pair of additional vortices above the pressure wall is carefully examined, and the underlying mechanism is explained according to the budget analysis of the mean momentum equations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Real-Time event reconstruction for Nuclear Physics Experiments using Artificial Intelligence

Charged track reconstruction is a critical task in nuclear physics experiments, enabling the identification and analysis of particles produced in high-energy collisions. Machine learning (ML) has emerged as a powerful tool for this purpose, addressing the challenges posed by complex detector geometries, high event multiplicities, and noisy data. Traditional methods rely on pattern recognition algorithms like the Kalman filter, but ML techniques, such as neural networks, graph neural networks (GNNs), and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), offer improved accuracy and scalability. By learning from simulated and real detector data, ML models can identify and classify tracks, predict trajectories, and handle ambiguities caused by overlapping or missing hits. Moreover, ML-based approaches can process data in near-real-time, enhancing the efficiency of experiments at large-scale facilities like the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) and Jefferson Lab (JLAB). As detector technologies and computational resources evolve, ML-driven charged track reconstruction continues to push the boundaries of precision and discovery in nuclear physics. In these proceedings, we highlight advancements in charged track identification leveraging Artificial Intelligence within the CLAS12 detector, achieving a notable enhancement in experimental statistics compared to traditional methods. Additionally, we showcase real-time event reconstruction capabilities, including the inference of charged particle properties, such as momentum, direction, and species identification, at speeds matching data acquisition rates. These innovations enable the extraction of physics observables directly from the experiment in real-time.

Gavalian, Gagik (ORCID:0000000267385457)↗
DOE OSTI2013

Statistical analysis of AFM topographic images of self-assembled quantum dots

To obtain statistical data on quantum-dot sizes, AFM topographic images of the substrate on which the dots under study are grown are analyzed. Due to the nonideality of the substrate containing height differences on the order of the size of nanoparticles at distances of 1-10 {mu}m and the insufficient resolution of closely arranged dots due to the finite curvature radius of the AFM probe, automation of the statistical analysis of their large dot array requires special techniques for processing topographic images to eliminate the loss of a particle fraction during conventional processing. As such a technique, convolution of the initial matrix of the AFM image with a specially selected matrix is used. This makes it possible to determine the position of each nanoparticle and, using the initial matrix, to measure their geometrical parameters. The results of statistical analysis by this method of self-assembled InAs quantum dots formed on the surface of an AlGaAs epitaxial layer are presented. It is shown that their concentration, average size, and half-width of height distribution depend strongly on the In flow and total amount of deposited InAs which are varied within insignificant limits.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Scattering study of the Ne + NeH{sup +}(v{sub 0} = 0, j{sub 0} = 0) → NeH{sup +} + Ne reaction on an ab initio based analytical potential energy surface

Initial state selected dynamics of the Ne + NeH{sup +}(v{sub 0} = 0, j{sub 0} = 0) → NeH{sup +} + Ne reaction is investigated by quantum and statistical quantum mechanical (SQM) methods on the ground electronic state. The three-body ab initio energies on a set of suitably chosen grid points have been computed at CCSD(T)/aug-cc-PVQZ level and analytically fitted. The fitting of the diatomic potentials, computed at the same level of theory, is performed by spline interpolation. A collinear [NeHNe]{sup +} structure lying 0.72 eV below the Ne + NeH{sup +} asymptote is found to be the most stable geometry for this system. Energies of low lying vibrational states have been computed for this stable complex. Reaction probabilities obtained from quantum calculations exhibit dense oscillatory structures, particularly in the low energy region and these get partially washed out in the integral cross section results. SQM predictions are devoid of oscillatory structures and remain close to 0.5 after the rise at the threshold thus giving a crude average description of the quantum probabilities. Statistical cross sections and rate constants are nevertheless in sufficiently good agreement with the quantum results to suggest an important role of a complex-forming dynamics for the title reaction.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Solar X-Ray Limb

We describe a new technique to measure the height of the X-ray limb with observations from occulted X-ray flare sources as observed by the RHESSI (the Reuven Ramaty High-Energy Spectroscopic Imager) satellite. This method has model dependencies different from those present in traditional observations at optical wavelengths, which depend upon detailed modeling involving radiative transfer in a medium with complicated geometry and flows. It thus provides an independent and more rigorous measurement of the “true” solar radius, which means that of the mass distribution. RHESSI’s measurement makes use of the flare X-ray source’s spatial Fourier components (the visibilities), which are sensitive to the presence of the sharp edge at the lower boundary of the occulted source. We have found a suitable flare event for analysis, SOL2011-10-20T03:25 (M1.7), and report a first result from this novel technique here. Using a four-minute integration over the 3–25 keV photon energy range, we find R{sub X-ray}=960.11±0.15±0.29 arcsec, at 1 au, where the uncertainties include statistical uncertainties from the method and a systematic error. The standard VAL-C model predicts a value of 959.94 arcsec, which is about 1σ below our value.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Calculating the free energy of transfer of small solutes into a model lipid membrane: Comparison between metadynamics and umbrella sampling

We compare the performance of two well-established computational algorithms for the calculation of free-energy landscapes of biomolecular systems, umbrella sampling and metadynamics. We look at benchmark systems composed of polyethylene and polypropylene oligomers interacting with lipid (phosphatidylcholine) membranes, aiming at the calculation of the oligomer water-membrane free energy of transfer. We model our test systems at two different levels of description, united-atom and coarse-grained. We provide optimized parameters for the two methods at both resolutions. We devote special attention to the analysis of statistical errors in the two different methods and propose a general procedure for the error estimation in metadynamics simulations. Metadynamics and umbrella sampling yield the same estimates for the water-membrane free energy profile, but metadynamics can be more efficient, providing lower statistical uncertainties within the same simulation time.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2017

Quantitative and simultaneous analysis of the polarity of polycrystalline ZnO seed layers and related nanowires grown by wet chemical deposition

The polarity in ZnO nanowires is an important issue since it strongly affects surface configuration and reactivity, nucleation and growth, electro-optical properties, and nanoscaleengineering device performances. However, measuring statistically the polarity of ZnO nanowire arrays grown by chemical bath deposition and elucidating its correlation with the polarity of the underneath polycrystalline ZnO seed layer grown by the sol–gel process represents a major difficulty. To address that issue, we combine resonant x-ray diffraction (XRD) at Zn K-edge using synchrotron radiation with piezoelectric force microscopy and polarity-sensitive chemical etching to statistically investigate the polarity of more than 107 nano-objects both on the macroscopic and local microscopic scales, respectively. By using high temperature annealing under an argon atmosphere, it is shown that the compact, highly c-axis oriented ZnO seed layer is more than 92% Zn-polar and that only a few small O-polar ZnO grains with an amount less than 8% are formed. Correlatively, the resulting ZnO nanowires are also found to be Zn-polar, indicating that their polarity is transferred from the c-axis oriented ZnO grains acting as nucleation sites in the seed layer. These findings pave the way for the development of new strategies to form unipolar ZnO nanowire arrays as a requirement for a number of nanoscaleengineering devices like piezoelectric nanogenerators. They also highlight the great advantage of resonant XRD as a macroscopic, non-destructive method to simultaneously and statistically measure the polarity of ZnO nanowire arrays and of the underneath ZnO seed layer.

nanowires↗
DOE OSTI2013

Collaborative Research: Using ARM Observations to Evaluate GCM Cloud Statistics for Development of Stochastic Cloud-Radiation Parameterizations

The long-range goal of several past and current projects in our DOE-supported research has been the development of new and improved parameterizations of cloud-radiation effects and related processes, using ARM data, and the implementation and testing of these parameterizations in global models. The main objective of the present project being reported on here has been to develop and apply advanced statistical techniques, including Bayesian posterior estimates, to diagnose and evaluate features of both observed and simulated clouds. The research carried out under this project has been novel in two important ways. The first is that it is a key step in the development of practical stochastic cloud-radiation parameterizations, a new category of parameterizations that offers great promise for overcoming many shortcomings of conventional schemes. The second is that this work has brought powerful new tools to bear on the problem, because it has been an interdisciplinary collaboration between a meteorologist with long experience in ARM research (Somerville) and a mathematician who is an expert on a class of advanced statistical techniques that are well-suited for diagnosing model cloud simulations using ARM observations (Shen). The motivation and long-term goal underlying this work is the utilization of stochastic radiative transfer theory (Lane-Veron and Somerville, 2004; Lane et al., 2002) to develop a new class of parametric representations of cloud-radiation interactions and closely related processes for atmospheric models. The theoretical advantage of the stochastic approach is that it can accurately calculate the radiative heating rates through a broken cloud layer without requiring an exact description of the cloud geometry.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗