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At least 1,351 records · Page 75

Potential Multi-Component Structure of the Debris Disk Around HIP 17439 Revealed by Herschel DUNES

Context. The dust observed in debris disks is produced through collisions of larger bodies left over from the planet/planetesimal formation process. Spatially resolving these disks permits to constrain their architecture and thus that of the underlying planetary/planetesimal system. Aims. Our Herschel open time key program DUNES aims at detecting and characterizing debris disks around nearby, sun-like stars. In addition to the statistical analysis of the data, the detailed study of single objects through spatially resolving the disk and detailed modeling of the data is a main goal of the project. Methods. We obtained the first observations spatially resolving the debris disk around the sun-like star HIP 17439 (HD 23484) using the instruments PACS and SPIRE on board the Herschel Space Observatory. Simultaneous multi-wavelength modeling of these data together with ancillary data from the literature is presented. Results. A standard single component disk model fails to reproduce the major axis radial profiles at 70 μm, 100 μm, and 160 μm simultaneously. Moreover, the best-fit parameters derived from such a model suggest a very broad disk extending from few au up to few hundreds of au from the star with a nearly constant surface density which seems physically unlikely. However, the constraints from both the data and our limited theoretical investigation are not strong enough to completely rule out this model. An alternative, more plausible, and better fitting model of the system consists of two rings of dust at approx. 30 au and 90 au, respectively, while the constraints on the parameters of this model are weak due to its complexity and intrinsic degeneracies. Conclusions. The disk is probably composed of at least two components with different spatial locations (but not necessarily detached), while a single, broad disk is possible, but less likely. The two spatially well-separated rings of dust in our best-fit model suggest the presence of at least one high mass planet or several low-mass planets clearing the region between the two rings from planetesimals and dust.

sun-like stars↗

Source Characterization of the Declared North Korean Nuclear Tests From Regional Distance Coda Wave Spectral Ratios

Abstract Seismic observations of underground nuclear explosions provide crucial data on source yield and depth that cannot easily be estimated from other geophysical methods. However, it is difficult to obtain reliable yield estimates for test sites for which we do not have direct seismic calibration experiments. To obtain source information from uncalibrated sites and paths, local and regional seismic records of six, proximal, declared underground nuclear explosions in North Korea are used to compute spectral ratios of narrow‐band waveform envelopes of body‐wave coda that remove path and site effects to reveal precise, relative source moment. The yields of these explosions are obtained from the observed source ratios by simultaneously fitting the classical source model of Mueller and Murphy (1971), https://doi.org/10.1785/bssa0610061675 to all event pairs. The source model provides an impressive fit to the observations considering that the P phase coda derived source spectral ratios did not require a prior knowledge of the source or regionally calibrated corrections to be applied to the data. However, the observed corner frequencies from S wave coda spectral ratios are lower than the source model predictions, but are well fit by models calculated using the corner frequency consistent with the Fisk conjecture. The results presented here provide novel constraints on the spectral distributions of the energy radiated by the sources of the DPRK test series, and allows for an independent evaluation of existing estimated source model parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

X-ray spectroscopy of the super soft source RXJ0925.7-475

The super soft source (SSS) RXJ 0925.7-475 was observed with the Advanced Satellite for Cosmology and Astrophysics (ASCA) solid state spectrometer and its energy spectrum was analyzed. A simple black body model does not fit the data, and several absorption edges of ionized heavy elements are required. Without the addition of absorption edges, the best-fit black body radius and the estimated bolometric luminosity are 6800 (d/1 kpc) km and 1.2 x 10(exp 37) (d/1 kps)(exp 2) erg/s, respectively. The introduction of absorption edges significantly reduces the best-fit radius and luminosity to 140 (d/1 KPS) km and 6 x 10(exp 34) (d/1 kpc)(exp 2) erg/s, respectively. This suggests that the estimation of the emission region size and luminosity of SSS based on the black body model fit to the observed data is not reliable.

Ebisawa, Ken↗

A Search Model for Imperfectly Detected Targets

Under the assumptions that 1) the search region can be divided up into N non-overlapping sub-regions that are searched sequentially, 2) the probability of detection is unity if a sub-region is selected, and 3) no information is available to guide the search, there are two extreme case models. The search can be done perfectly, leading to a uniform distribution over the number of searches required, or the search can be done with no memory, leading to a geometric distribution for the number of searches required with a success probability of 1/N. If the probability of detection P is less than unity, but the search is done otherwise perfectly, the searcher will have to search the N regions repeatedly until detection occurs. The number of searches is thus the sum two random variables. One is N times the number of full searches (a geometric distribution with success probability P) and the other is the uniform distribution over the integers 1 to N. The first three moments of this distribution were computed, giving the mean, standard deviation, and the kurtosis of the distribution as a function of the two parameters. The model was fit to the data presented last year (Ahumada, Billington, & Kaiwi, 2 required to find a single pixel target on a simulated horizon. The model gave a good fit to the three moments for all three observers.

Ahumada, Albert↗

Contrasts in compliant fault zone properties inferred from geodetic measurements in the San Francisco Bay area

In crustal fault zones, regions of damaged rock characterized by reduced elastic shear modulus can influence patterns of near-field interseismic deformation. In order to study these compliant fault zones (CFZs) and how they might develop over the lifetimes of faults, we compare two fault segments with contrasting fault age and lithology along the San Andreas Fault in the San Francisco Bay Area. New geodetic measurements of the interseismic velocity fields at each location are used to constrain fault zone parameters through a Markov chain Monte Carlo method. At Black Mountain, in the Santa Cruz Mountains of the San Francisco Peninsula, we do not find evidence for a compliant fault zone; instead, we find that the geodetic data are more consistent with a model of a single fault in a homogeneous elastic half-space. At Lake San Andreas, a younger fault segment 35 km farther north, we find evidence for a compliant fault zone about 3.4 +1.1/-1.4 km wide, containing a shear modulus of about 40% of the shear modulus of the surrounding rock. We also find that the best fitting CFZ model at this location, unlike the best fitting homogeneous half-space model, has a locking depth that agrees well with the observed depth of microseismicity. Based on differences in fault age, cumulative displacement, and lithology between Black Mountain and Lake San Andreas, we infer that lithology plays an important and, in this case, perhaps a dominant role in the accumulation of fault zone damage structures and the development of CFZs over the lifetime of a fault.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Scalable computations for nonstationary Gaussian processes

Nonstationary Gaussian process models can capture complex spatially varying dependence structures in spatial datasets. However, the large number of observations in modern datasets makes fitting such models computationally intractable with conventional dense linear algebra. In addition, derivative-free or even first-order optimization methods can be very slow to converge when estimating many spatially varying parameters. In this paper, we present a computational framework which couples an algebraic block diagonal plus low-rank covariance matrix approximation with stochastic trace estimation to facilitate the efficient use of second-order solvers for maximum likelihood estimation of Gaussian process models with many parameters. We demonstrate the effectiveness of these methods by simultaneously fitting 192 parameters in the popular nonstationary model of Paciorek and Schervish using 107,600 sea surface temperature anomaly measurements.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The NANOGrav 11-year Data Set: High-Precision Timing of 45 Millisecond Pulsars

We present high-precision timing data over time spans of up to 11 years for 45 millisecond pulsars observed as part of the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) project, aimed at detecting and characterizing low-frequency gravitational waves. The pulsars were observed with the Arecibo Observatory and/or the Green Bank Telescope at frequencies ranging from 327 MHz to 2.3 GHz. Most pulsars were observed with approximately monthly cadence, and six high-timing-precision pulsars were observed weekly. All were observed at widely separated frequencies at each observing epoch in order to fit for time-variable dispersion delays. We describe our methods for data processing, time-of-arrival (TOA) calculation, and the implementation of a new, automated method for removing outlier TOAs. We fit a timing model for each pulsar that includes spin, astrometric, and (for binary pulsars) orbital parameters; time-variable dispersion delays; and parameters that quantify pulse-profile evolution with frequency. The timing solutions provide three new parallax measurements, two new Shapiro delay measurements, and two new measurements of significant orbital-period variations. We fit models that characterize sources of noise for each pulsar. We find that 11 pulsars show significant red noise, with generally smaller spectral indices than typically measured for non-recycled pulsars, possibly suggesting a different origin. A companion paper uses these data to constrain the strength of the gravitational-wave background

Arzoumanian, Zaven↗

Solid and gas thermal conductivity models improvement and validation in various porous insulation materials

In the past few decades, significant efforts have been made to improve the theoretical understanding of thermal transport mechanisms in thermal insulation materials and push the thermal conductivity's lower limits. However, most works focused singularly on specific types of materials, and the models used for thermal conductivity predictions are diverse - a model that fits one material might not fit others. Here, we improve and unify the gas and solid thermal conductivity models for porous materials. Through experimental characterization of several different materials as well as literature data for other materials, these models are validated. Further, we have also found that the pressure-dependent gas thermal conductivity of most materials can be well fitted by using one or two pore sizes without using a complex pore size distribution. With the refined models, we decompose the effective thermal conductivity of several thermal insulation materials into gas, solid, and radiation contributions. For cellular (polystyrene and polyurethane) foams, the relative contributions from air, solid, and radiation are 58–75%, 3–11%, 16–38%, respectively. For granular porous materials (polyurethane and silica in this work), the contributions from air, solid, and radiation are 45–66%, 34–46%, and 0–8%, respectively. This work is expected to provide guidance on the design and optimization of the next generation of thermal insulation materials, for example, through the effort of reducing gas conduction and radiation in foams and suppressing gas and solid conduction in aerogels.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Overcoming significant challenges in extracting off-stoichiometric thermodynamics using the compound energy formalism through complementary use of experimental and first principles data: A case study of Ba 1-x Sr x FeO 3-δ

The compound energy formalism (CEF) is a powerful framework to describe the thermodynamics of metal oxides as a function of off-stoichiometry, temperature, and composition. The thermodynamic properties are crucial materials design attributes in metal oxide-based oxygen-exchange chemical processes. Despite the richness of information an accurate CEF model provides, a method to determine a unique and accurate fit for oxygen exchange materials remains elusive. This contribution details a method for fitting the CEF model that overcomes the current fitting challenges through three innovations: 1) the combination of density functional theory calculations with experimental data decorrelates excess terms and delineates the enthalpic/entropic contributions to the Gibbs free energy; 2) a systematic determination of the important CEF model terms, removing thermodynamic predetermining human intervention; 3) a self-consistent solution of the starting oxygen offstoichiometry (δ 0 ) of thermogravimetric measurements. Thus, our method enables the reliable extraction of off-stoichiometric metal oxide thermodynamic properties and facilitates rapid materials compositional screening, and reliable process design of systems dependent on off-stoichiometric redox-active metal oxides. We apply this method to a Ba x Sr 1-x FeO 3-δ test case. We find by systematically examining the performance of the CEF model fit with and without each innovation that all three innovations are necessary for an accurate fit. We determined that reduction enthalpy is higher and more sensitive to off-stoichiometry when the Sr fraction is large (139.5 and 185.3 kJ/mol O 2 for SrFeO 3 at δ = 0 and δ = 0.5, respectively vs. nearly constant 83 kJ/mol O 2 for BaFeO 3 ). However, the reduction entropy is mostly insensitive to Sr fraction, but highly dependent on δ suggesting larger contributions in the non-configurational entropy parameters.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Timing the r -process Enrichment of the Ultra-faint Dwarf Galaxy Reticulum II

The ultra-faint dwarf galaxy Reticulum II (Ret II) exhibits a unique chemical evolution history, with ${72}_{-12}^{+10}$% of its stars strongly enhanced in r-process elements. We present deep Hubble Space Telescope photometry of Ret II and analyze its star formation history. As in other ultra-faint dwarfs, the color–magnitude diagram is best fit by a model consisting of two bursts of star formation. If we assume that the bursts were instantaneous, then the older burst occurred around the epoch of reionization, forming ~80% of the stars in the galaxy, while the remainder of the stars formed ~3 Gyr later. When the bursts are allowed to have nonzero durations, we obtain slightly better fits. The best-fitting model in this case consists of two bursts beginning before reionization, with approximately half the stars formed in a short (100 Myr) burst and the other half in a more extended period lasting 2.6 Gyr. Considering the full set of viable star formation history models, we find that 28% of the stars formed within 500 ± 200 Myr of the onset of star formation. The combination of the star formation history and the prevalence of r-process-enhanced stars demonstrates that the r-process elements in Ret II must have been synthesized early in its initial star-forming phase. We therefore constrain the delay time between the formation of the first stars in Ret II and the r-process nucleosynthesis to be less than 500 Myr. This measurement rules out an r-process source with a delay time of several Gyr or more, such as GW170817.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Time-integrated activity coefficient estimation for radionuclide therapy using PET and a pharmacokinetic model: A simulation study on the effect of sampling schedule and noise

Purpose: The aim of this study was to investigate the accuracy of PET-based treatment planning for predicting the time-integrated activity coefficients (TIACs). Methods: The parameters of a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model were fitted to the biokinetic data of 15 patients to derive assumed true parameters and were used to construct true mathematical patient phantoms (MPPs). Biokinetics of 150 MBq {sup 68}Ga-DOTATATE-PET was simulated with different noise levels [fractional standard deviation (FSD) 10%, 1%, 0.1%, and 0.01%], and seven combinations of measurements at 30 min, 1 h, and 4 h p.i. PBPK model parameters were fitted to the simulated noisy PET data using population-based Bayesian parameters to construct predicted MPPs. Therapy simulations were performed as 30 min infusion of {sup 90}Y-DOTATATE of 3.3 GBq in both true and predicted MPPs. Prediction accuracy was then calculated as relative variability v{sub organ} between TIACs from both MPPs. Results: Large variability values of one time-point protocols [e.g., FSD = 1%, 240 min p.i., v{sub kidneys} = (9 ± 6)%, and v{sub tumor} = (27 ± 26)%] show inaccurate prediction. Accurate TIAC prediction of the kidneys was obtained for the case of two measurements (1 and 4 h p.i.), e.g., FSD = 1%, v{sub kidneys} = (7 ± 3)%, and v{sub tumor} = (22 ± 10)%, or three measurements, e.g., FSD = 1%, v{sub kidneys} = (7 ± 3)%, and v{sub tumor} = (22 ± 9)%. Conclusions: {sup 68}Ga-DOTATATE-PET measurements could possibly be used to predict the TIACs of {sup 90}Y-DOTATATE when using a PBPK model and population-based Bayesian parameters. The two time-point measurement at 1 and 4 h p.i. with a noise up to FSD = 1% allows an accurate prediction of the TIACs in kidneys.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Galactic Black Holes in the Hard State: A Multi-Wavelength View of Accretion and Ejection

The canonical hard state is associated with emission from all three fundamental accretion components: the accretion disk, the hot accretion disk corona and the jet. On top of these, the hard state also hosts very rich temporal variability properties (low frequency QPOs in the PDS, time lags, long time scale evolution). Our group has been working on the major questions of the hard state both observationally (with mult i-wavelength campaigns using RXTE, Swift, Suzaku, Spitzer, VLA, ATCA, SMARTS) and theoretically (through jet models that can fit entire SEDs). Through spectral and temporal analysis we seek to determine the geometry of accretion components, and relate the geometry to the formation and emission from a jet. In this presentation I will review the recent contributions of our group to the field, including the Swift results on the disk geometry at low accretion rates, the jet model fits to the hard state SEDs (including Spitzer data) of GRO J1655-40, and the final results on the evolution of spectral (including X-ray, radio and infrared) and temporal properties of elected black holes in the hard states. I will also talk about impact of ASTROSAT to the science objective of our group.

Kalemci↗

Uncertain characterization of reservoir fluids due to brittleness of equation of state regression

Equations of state (EoS) play a central role in modeling the phase equilibrium of fluid mixtures. Their parameterization involves fitting a model to experimental data, i.e., solving a nonlinear, non-convex, multivariate optimization problem. The latter requires one to select design variables, domains of definition for each variable, and weights assigned to individual measurements. We demonstrate that subjective choices of an optimization algorithm and an initial guess also impact the regression process. Consequently, EoS predictions are fundamentally uncertain even after the EoS tuning to a limited set of experimental data points. We demonstrate this observation for two hydrocarbon reservoir fluids, in which five properties of the heaviest carbon fraction are treated as design variables. While all the optimization algorithms and initial guesses match experimental data for the gas and liquid properties, the resulting EoS parameterizations lead to dramatically different predictions of the fluid’s thermophysical behavior in the unsampled pressure and temperature regions. In conclusion, we propose the probabilistic treatment of design variables to quantify the predictive uncertainty of the resulting fluid models.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Surrogate modelling the Baryonic Universe II: On forward modelling the colours of individual and populations of galaxies

ABSTRACT Among the properties shaping the light of a galaxy, the star formation history (SFH) is one of the most challenging to model due to the variety of correlated physical processes regulating star formation. In this work, we leverage the stellar population synthesis model fsps, together with SFHs predicted by the hydrodynamical simulation IllustrisTNG and the empirical model universemachine, to study the impact of star formation variability on galaxy colours. We start by introducing a model-independent metric to quantify the burstiness of a galaxy formation model, and we use this metric to demonstrate that universemachine predicts SFHs with more burstiness relative to IllustrisTNG. Using this metric and principal component analysis, we construct families of SFH models with adjustable variability, and we show that the precision of broad-band optical and near-infrared colours degrades as the level of unresolved short-term variability increases. We use the same technique to demonstrate that variability in metallicity and dust attenuation presents a practically negligible impact on colours relative to star formation variability. We additionally provide a model-independent fitting function capturing how the level of unresolved star formation variability translates into imprecision in predictions for galaxy colours; our fitting function can be used to determine the minimal SFH model that reproduces colours with some target precision. Finally, we show that modelling the colours of individual galaxies with per cent-level precision demands resorting to complex SFH models, while producing precise colours for galaxy populations can be achieved using models with just a few degrees of freedom.

Chaves-Montero, Jonás (ORCID:0000000295534261)↗

A nondestructive method to estimate the chlorophyll content of Arabidopsis seedlings

Chlorophyll content decreases in plants under stress conditions, therefore it is used commonly as an indicator of plant health. Arabidopsis thaliana offers a convenient and fast way to test physiological phenotypes of mutations and treatments. But, chlorophyll measurements with conventional solvent extraction are not applicable to Arabidopsis leaves due to their small size, especially when grown on culture dishes. We provide a nondestructive method for chlorophyll measurement whereby the red, green and blue (RGB) values of a color leaf image is used to estimate the chlorophyll content from Arabidopsis leaves. The method accommodates different profiles of digital cameras by incorporating the ColorChecker chart to make the digital negative profiles, to adjust the white balance, and to calibrate the exposure rate differences caused by the environment so that this method is applicable in any environment. We chose an exponential function model to estimate chlorophyll content from the RGB values, and fitted the model parameters with physical measurements of chlorophyll contents. As further proof of utility, this method was used to estimate chlorophyll content of G protein mutants grown on different sugar to nitrogen ratios. Our method is a simple, fast, inexpensive, and nondestructive estimation of chlorophyll content of Arabidopsis seedlings. This method lead to the discovery that G proteins are important in sensing the C/N balance to control chlorophyll content in Arabidopsis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

West Flank Coso FORGE: Magnetotelluric Inversion

The Coso Magnetotelluric (MT) dataset of which the West Flank FORGE MT data is a subset, was collected by Schlumberger / WesternGeco and initially processed by the WesternGeco GeoSolutions Integrated EM Center of Excellence in Milan, Italy. The 2011 data was based on 99 soundings that were centered on the West Flank geothermal prospect. The new soundings along with previous data from 2003 and 2006 were incorporated into a 3D inversion. Full impedance tensor data were inverted in the 1-3000 Hz range. The modelling report notes several noise sources, specifically the DC powerline that is 20,000 feet west of the survey area, and may have affected data in the 0.02 to 10 Hz range. Model cell dimensions of 450 x 450 x 65 feet were used to avoid computational instability in the 3D model. The fit between calculated and observed MT values for the final model run had an RMS value of 1.807. The included figure from the WesternGeco report shows the sounding locations from the 2011, 2006 and 2003 surveys.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Automation of reliability evaluation procedures through CARE - The computer-aided reliability estimation program.

Description of an on-line interactive computer program called CARE (Computer-Aided Reliability Estimation) which can model self-repair and fault-tolerant organizations and perform certain other functions. Essentially CARE consists of a repository of mathematical equations defining the various basic redundancy schemes. These equations, under program control, are then interrelated to generate the desired mathematical model to fit the architecture of the system under evaluation. The mathematical model is then supplied with ground instances of its variables and is then evaluated to generate values for the reliability-theoretic functions applied to the model.

Mathur, F. P.↗

Thermal Properties and Evolution of a Coronal Cavity as Observed by the X-Ray Telescope on Hinode

Coronal cavities are voids in coronal emission often observed above high latitude filament channels. sometimes, these cavities have areas of bright x-ray emission in their centers (i.e. Hudson et al 1999). In this study, we use data from the x-ray Telescope (XRT) on Hinode to examine the thermal emission properties of a cavity observed during July 2008 that contains bright x-ray emission in its center. using ratios of XRT filters, we find evidence for elevated temperatures in the cavity center. The area of elevated temperature evolves from a ring-shaped structure at the be~inning of the observation, to an elongated structure two days later, finally appearing as a compact round source four days after the initial observation. We use a morphological model to fit the cavity emission, and find that a uniform structure running through the cavity does not fit the observations well. Instead, the observations are reproduced by modeling several short cavity "cores" with different parameters on different days. These changing core parameters may be due to some observed activity heating different parts of the cavity core at different times. We also find that core temperatures of 1.75 MK, 1.7 MK and 2.25 MK (for 19 July, 21 July and 23 July, respectively) in the model lead to structures that are consistent with the data, and that line-of-sight effects serve to lower the effective temperature derived from the filter ratio. page

Reeves, K. K.↗