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At least 1,351 records · Page 75

A near-stationary subspace for ridge approximation

Response surfaces are common surrogates for expensive computer simulations in engineering analysis. However, the cost of fitting an accurate response surface increases exponentially as the number of model inputs increases, which leaves response surface construction intractable for high-dimensional, nonlinear models. Here we describe ridge approximation for fitting response surfaces in several variables. A ridge function is constant along several directions in its domain, so fitting occurs on the coordinates of a low-dimensional subspace of the input space. We review essential theory for ridge approximation – e.g., the best mean-squared approximation and an optimal low-dimensional subspace – and we prove that the gradient-based active subspace is near-stationary for the least-squares problem that defines an optimal subspace. Motivated by the theory, we propose a computational heuristic that uses an estimated active subspace as an initial guess for a ridge approximation fitting problem. We show a simple example where the heuristic fails, which reveals a type of function for which the proposed approach is inappropriate. We then propose a simple alternating heuristic for fitting a ridge function, and we demonstrate the effectiveness of the active subspace initial guess applied to an airfoil model of drag as a function of its 18 shape parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Fast permeability measurement for tight reservoir cores using only initial data of the one chamber pressure pulse decay test

Here, in this study, a mathematical model for fast determination of the permeabilities of tight rocks using measurements taken from the initial period of the One Chamber Pressure Pulse Decay (OC-PPD) test is presented. The model applies to measurements taken both before and after the pressure pulse front has reached the downstream end of the specimen. The analytical solutions for the pressure decay in the upstream chamber are derived based on a parabolic arc approximation of pore pressure distribution along the test specimen. This approximation allows converting the initial–boundary value problem of fluid diffusion in the specimen, governed by partial differential equations, to a system of ordinary differential equations that can be easily solved by explicit formulae. Thus, an explicit formula for the pressure decay rate is obtained, which enables inverse analysis of the initial experimental data to estimate the rock permeability. The proposed method expedites the pulse decay test as it does not require the system to reach equilibrium. The method is validated with three sets of experimental data of the OC-PPD test using helium as the diffusing fluid, for which the relative error of the permeability is found to be less than 6%. This method is particularly useful if the equilibrium time of the pulse decay test for rock specimens with permeabilities in the range of nano-Darcy takes hours or days.

early-time solution↗

Initial 1.5D BISON Simulation Verification and Validation CASL FY17 Letter Report

This milestone report describes the current efforts to improve the usability of the recently developed 1.5 dimensional capability in BISON, the initial verification of this BISON capability, and initial validation of the 1.5 dimensional models against existing 2 dimensional axisymmetric full length light water reactor (LWR) fuel rods. The 1.5 dimensional (1.5D) capability in BISON was developed to enable the simulation of LWR fuel rods in a less computationally demanding simulation formulation while retaining key physics of interest. BISON was originally developed to solve 2D axisymmetric and 3D models, and this original development focus allows BISON to examine a wider range of fuel types and geometrically complexity than can be solved with lower dimensional frameworks. As the set of problems which BISON is used to solve expands, the software design requirements continue to evolve. Coupling physics in a higher dimensional geometry is not always required to resolve the physics of interest, such as the modeling of radial heat transfer and radial displacement. BISON, built on the dimension-agnostic MOOSE framework, is able to solve problems in 3D, 2D, and 1D with only minor modifications to the material definition code so that the appropriate geometrical representation can be applied in different problems of interest. The motivation for the development and validation of the BISON 1.5D capability is the CASL program's need for a simplified and computationally efficient version of BISON for use in the large multi-physics VERA simulations which include hundreds of individual fuel rods. The original development of the BISON 1.5D simulation capability is described in the CASL FY17 Letter Report from January 2017, and this report documents the continuing work identified in the previous report. The improvements to the usability of the 1.5D capability through input file simplifications, the results of the verification simulations, the results of the initial validation against the 2D assessment cases in BISON, and the future development needs are included within this report.

1.5D Capability↗

Partially averaged Navier-Stokes closure modeling for variable-density turbulent flow

We report this work extends the framework of the partially averaged Navier-Stokes (PANS) equations to variable-density flow, i.e., multimaterial and/or compressible mixing problems with density variations and production of turbulence kinetic energy by both shear and buoyancy mechanisms. The proposed methodology is utilized to derive the PANS BHR-LEVM closure. This includes a priori testing to analyze and develop guidelines toward the efficient selection of the parameters controlling the physical resolution and, consequently, the range of resolved scales of PANS. Two archetypal test-cases involving transient turbulence, hydrodynamic instabilities, and coherent structures are used to illustrate the accuracy and potential of the method: the Taylor-Green vortex at Reynolds number Re = 3000, and the Rayleigh-Taylor flow at Atwood number 0.5 and (Re) max ≈ 500. These representative problems, for which turbulence is generated by shear and buoyancy processes, constitute the initial validation space of the new model, and their results are comprehensively discussed in two subsequent studies. The computations indicate that PANS can accurately predict the selected flow problems, resolving only a fraction of the scales of large-eddy simulation and direct numerical simulation strategies. The results also reiterate that the physical resolution of the PANS model must guarantee that the key instabilities and coherent structures of the flow are resolved. The remaining scales can be modeled through an adequate turbulence scale-dependent closure.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The need for non- or minimally-invasive biomonitoring strategies and the development of pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic models for quantification

Advancements in Exposure Science involving the development and deployment of biomarkers of exposure and biological response are anticipated to significantly (and positively) influence health outcomes associated with occupational, environmental and clinical exposure to chemicals/drugs. To achieve this vision, innovative strategies are needed to develop multiplex sensor platforms capable of quantifying individual and mixed exposures (i.e. systemic dose) by measuring biomarkers of dose and biological response in readily obtainable (non-invasive) biofluids. Secondly, the use of saliva (alternative to blood) for biomonitoring coupled with the ability to rapidly analyze multiple samples in real-time offers an innovative opportunity to revolutionize biomonitoring assessments. In this regard, the timing and number of samples taken for biomonitoring will not be limited as is currently the case. In addition, real-time analysis will facilitate identification of work practices or conditions that are contributing to increased exposures and will make possible a more rapid and successful intervention strategy. The initial development and application of computational models for evaluation of saliva/blood analyte concentration at anticipated exposure levels represents an important opportunity to establish the limits of quantification and robustness of multiplex sensor systems by exploiting a unique computational modeling framework. The use of these pharmacokinetic models will also enable prediction of an exposure dose based on the saliva/blood measurement. This novel strategy will result in a more accurate prediction of exposures and, once validated, can be employed to assess dosimetry to a broad range of chemicals in support of biomonitoring and epidemiology studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

PRIME: An evaluation framework for protein representation inference and generalization in viral mutation space

Background Protein language models (PLMs) have revolutionized protein fitness prediction, yet their application to rapidly evolving viral pathogens is often confounded by extreme sequence homology. This homology leads to “data leakage” in standard random validation splits, yielding inflated performance metrics that fail to translate into real-world biosurveillance utility. Results We present Protein Representation Inference for Mutation Evaluation (PRIME), a framework that integrates domain-specific fine-tuning with a rigorous position-stratified validation protocol to evaluate viral threats. Using a dataset of 347,432 SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain (RBD) sequences, we demonstrate that while random training data split yields deceptive R 2 values (> 0.90), they fail to generalize to novel mutational sites. By benchmarking models up to 650 M parameters, we show that domain-specific fine-tuning of the ESM-C 600 M model with correctly stratified data provides an initial demonstration of predictive signal for binding affinity and expression at unseen mutational sites of binding affinity and expression on unseen sites (R 2 ~0.23), a significant advancement over base foundation models which exhibit no predictive power (R 2 <0). PRIME’s embedding-based clustering identified 3.03% of bat coronavirus sequences as candidates for further experimental prioritization based on their functional similarity to human-infective strains in embedding space, offering a perspective complementary to traditional phylogenetic methods. Conclusion PRIME establishes a new benchmark for the application of PLMs in pathogen surveillance. Our findings demonstrate that state-of-the-art models and fine-tuning, when paired with stratified validation, provide biologically meaningful insights into pathogen evolution and zoonotic risk.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Adaptive time scaling for accelerating explicit finite element analysis

A method for accelerating an explicit finite element analysis (FEA) simulation of a modeled system or process includes performing an initial iteration of the FEA simulation according to a baseline time interval via an FEA computing network, and calculating a criteria ratio of a predetermined set of scaling criteria for the modeled system or process. The method includes determining a time-scaling factor using the criteria ratio via the FEA computing network as a function of the criteria ratio, and then applying the time-scaling factor to the baseline time interval to generate a scaled time interval. The scaled time interval accelerates simulation time of the FEA simulation. The method includes performing a subsequent iteration of the explicit FEA simulation at the scaled time interval using the FEA computing network. The process continues for subsequent iterations, with the time-scaling factor adapting with each iteration.

Chen, Jian↗

On Assessing ERA5 and MERRA2 Representations of Cold-Air Outbreaks Across the Gulf Stream

The warm Gulf Stream sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strongly impact the evolution of winter clouds behind atmospheric cold fronts. Such cloud evolution remains challenging to model. Here, the Gulf Stream is too wide within the ERA5 and MERRA2 reanalyses, affecting the turbulent surface fluxes. Known problems within the ERA5 boundary layer (too-dry and too-cool with too strong westerlies), ascertained primarily from ACTIVATE 2020 campaign aircraft dropsondes and secondarily from older buoy measurements, reinforce surface flux biases. In contrast, MERRA2 winter surface winds and air-sea temperature/humidity differences are slightly too weak, producing surface fluxes that are too low. Reanalyses boundary layer heights in the strongly-forced winter cold-air-outbreak regime are realistic, whereas late-summer quiescent stable boundary layers are too shallow. Nevertheless, the reanalysis biases are small, and reanalyses adequately support their use for initializing higher-resolution cloud process modeling studies of cold-air outbreaks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Phase-field modeling of stored-energy-driven grain growth with intra-granular variation in dislocation density

Abstract We present a phase-field (PF) model to simulate the microstructure evolution occurring in polycrystalline materials with a variation in the intra-granular dislocation density. The model accounts for two mechanisms that lead to the grain boundary migration: the driving force due to capillarity and that due to the stored energy arising from a spatially varying dislocation density. In addition to the order parameters that distinguish regions occupied by different grains, we introduce dislocation density fields that describe spatial variation of the dislocation density. We assume that the dislocation density decays as a function of the distance the grain boundary has migrated. To demonstrate and parameterize the model, we simulate microstructure evolution in two dimensions, for which the initial microstructure is based on real-time experimental data. Additionally, we applied the model to study the effect of a cyclic heat treatment (CHT) on the microstructure evolution. Specifically, we simulated stored-energy-driven grain growth during three thermal cycles, as well as grain growth without stored energy that serves as a baseline for comparison. We showed that the microstructure evolution proceeded much faster when the stored energy was considered. A non-self-similar evolution was observed in this case, while a nearly self-similar evolution was found when the microstructure evolution is driven solely by capillarity. These results suggest a possible mechanism for the initiation of abnormal grain growth during CHT. Finally, we demonstrate an integrated experimental-computational workflow that utilizes the experimental measurements to inform the PF model and its parameterization, which provides a foundation for the development of future simulation tools capable of quantitative prediction of microstructure evolution during non-isothermal heat treatment.

Materials Science↗

Coupled Hydrodynamic-Geomechanical Modelling of CO2-WAG Field Development at Farnsworth Unit: A Case Study

Abstract The SWP project is located in a mature waterflood undergoing conversion to CO2-WAG operations at Farnsworth, Texas, USA. Utilized CO2 is anthropogenic, sourced from a fertilizer and an ethanol plant. Major project goals are optimizing the storage/production balance, ensuring storage permanence, and developing best practices for CCUS. This paper provides a review of work performed toward development of a 3D coupled Mechanical Earth Model (MEM) for use in assessment of caprock integrity, fault reactivation potential, and evaluation of stress dependent permeability in reservoir forecasting. Mechanical property estimates computed from geophysical logs at selected wellbores were integrated with 3D seismic elastic inversion products to create a 3D "static" mechanical property model sharing the same geological framework as the existing reservoir simulation model including 3 major faults. Stresses in the MEM were initialized from wellbore stress estimates and reservoir simulation pore pressures. One way and two way coupled simulations were performed using a compositional hydrodynamic flow model and geomechanical solvers. Coupled simulations were performed on history matched primary, secondary (waterflood), and tertiary (CO2 WAG) recovery periods, as well as an optimized WAG prediction period. These simulations suggest that the field has been operating at conditions which are not conducive to either caprock failure or fault reactivation. Two way coupled simulations were performed in which permeability was periodically updated as a function of volumetric strain using the Kozeny-Carmen porosity-permeability relationship. These simulations illustrate the importance of frequent permeability updating when recovery scenarios result in large pressure changes such as in field re-pressurization through waterflood after a long primary depletion recovery period. Conversely, production forecasting results are less sensitive to permeability update frequency when pressure cycles are short and shallow as in WAG cycles. This paper describes initial work on development of a mechanical earth model for use in assessment of geomechanical risks associated with CCUS operations at FWU. The emphasis of this work is on integration of available geomechanical data for creation of the static mechanical property model. Preliminary coupled hydro-mechanical simulations are presented to illustrate some of the key diagnostic output from coupled simulations which will be used in later work for in depth evaluation of specific risk factors such as induced seismicity and caprock integrity.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Breakup dynamics in a pressure-swirl injector for urea-water solution applications: A computational study

The co-optimization of in-cylinder combustion and after-treatment technology has become a major aspect in engine design and development, with the goal of meeting the increasingly restrictive emission regulations in the transportation industry. Selective Catalytic Reduction is a robust technology to control the emission of NO x , and the injection of urea in water solution is the exhaust tailpipe is a key aspect of its operation. The proposed work uses high-fidelity Computational Fluid Dynamics to characterize the atomization dynamics of the liquid jet in relevant cross-flow conditions. The study focuses on a commercial low-pressure (9 bar) pressure-swirl injector which is characterized in its internal geometry through high-resolution X-ray micro-computational tomography. The internal two-phase flow has been modeled according to the volume-of-fluid approach in a large eddy simulation framework and validated against near-nozzle X-ray radiography measurement. Moreover, characterizing the breakup dynamics for the swirling hollow cone formation, and assessing the influence of the cross-flow in the breakup dynamics was completed. The results have been reported proposing Re-Oh maps and probability density functions of the spray kinematics. Higher cross-flow momentum generates an increase in the jet intact length and a reduction of the liquid droplet diameters. The axial momentum of the jet is affected by the cross-flow already in the near-nozzle region, determining a relevant deviation of the spray velocities. In conclusion, this work aims to inform the initialization of Eulerian-Lagrangian spray models through the assignment of droplet kinematics and static one-way coupling between volume-of-fluid results and Lagrangian spray parcels, to be used for system-size domain simulations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

A UNIFAC-Based Approach to Gasoline Droplet Evaporation and the Role of Oxygenates on PM Precursor Vaporization

In some studies, a relationship has been observed between increasing ethanol content in gasoline and increased particulate matter (PM) emissions from vehicles equipped with spark ignition engines. The fundamental cause of the PM increase seen for moderate ethanol concentrations is not well understood. As a result, existing PM indices such as PMI may not be indicative of measured PM emissions for oxygenated biofuel blends. Ethanol features a greater heat of vaporization (HOV) than gasoline and also influences vaporization by altering the liquid and vapor composition throughout the vaporization process. A droplet vaporization model was developed to explore ethanol's effect on the evaporation of aromatic compounds known to be PM precursors. The evolving droplet composition is modeled as a distillation process, with non-ideal interactions between oxygenates and hydrocarbons accounted for using UNIFAC group contribution theory. Detailed hydrocarbon analysis was applied to fuel samples, and used as input for the initial droplet composition. The droplet can be modeled in terms of energy transfer, which in turn provides the transient mass transfer, droplet temperature, and droplet diameter. Model predictions suggest that non-ideal vapor-liquid equilibrium along with an increase in HOV can alter the droplet composition evolution. Results predict that the presence of ethanol causes enrichment of the higher boiling fractions (T90+) in the aromatic components as well as lengthens the droplet lifetime. A simulation of the evaporation process in a transient environment as experienced within an engine cylinder predicts a decrease in mixing time of the heaviest fractions of the fuel prior to spark initiation, possibly explaining observations linking ethanol to PM. A correlation between liquid phase PM precursors and measured PM emissions is shown.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

KGML-ag: a modeling framework of knowledge-guided machine learning to simulate agroecosystems: a case study of estimating N<sub>2</sub>O emission using data from mesocosm experiments

Abstract. Agricultural nitrous oxide (N2O) emission accounts for a non-trivial fraction of global greenhouse gas (GHG) budget. To date, estimating N2O fluxes from cropland remains a challenging task because the related microbial processes (e.g., nitrification and denitrification) are controlled by complex interactions among climate, soil, plant and human activities. Existing approaches such as process-based (PB) models have well-known limitations due to insufficient representations of the processes or uncertainties of model parameters, and due to leverage recent advances in machine learning (ML) a new method is needed to unlock the “black box” to overcome its limitations such as low interpretability, out-of-sample failure and massive data demand. In this study, we developed a first-of-its-kind knowledge-guided machine learning model for agroecosystems (KGML-ag) by incorporating biogeophysical and chemical domain knowledge from an advanced PB model, ecosys, and tested it by comparing simulating daily N2O fluxes with real observed data from mesocosm experiments. The gated recurrent unit (GRU) was used as the basis to build the model structure. To optimize the model performance, we have investigated a range of ideas, including (1) using initial values of intermediate variables (IMVs) instead of time series as model input to reduce data demand; (2) building hierarchical structures to explicitly estimate IMVs for further N2O prediction; (3) using multi-task learning to balance the simultaneous training on multiple variables; and (4) pre-training with millions of synthetic data generated from ecosys and fine-tuning with mesocosm observations. Six other pure ML models were developed using the same mesocosm data to serve as the benchmark for the KGML-ag model. Results show that KGML-ag did an excellent job in reproducing the mesocosm N2O fluxes (overall r2=0.81, and RMSE=3.6 mgNm-2d-1 from cross validation). Importantly, KGML-ag always outperforms the PB model and ML models in predicting N2O fluxes, especially for complex temporal dynamics and emission peaks. Besides, KGML-ag goes beyond the pure ML models by providing more interpretable predictions as well as pinpointing desired new knowledge and data to further empower the current KGML-ag. We believe the KGML-ag development in this study will stimulate a new body of research on interpretable ML for biogeochemistry and other related geoscience processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Detailed, sterically-resolved modeling of soot oxidation: Role of O atoms, interplay with particle nanostructure, and emergence of inner particle burning

A newly-developed detailed mechanism of soot oxidation was tested against experimental observations. The computations were performed at an atomistic level and with a detailed consideration of soot particle surface sites. Several additional reactions were investigated theoretically and one of them, oxidation of embedded five-member rings by O atoms, was included in the model. Here, the primary focus of the study was on the high-temperature shock-tube experiments of Roth et al. (1991). The reaction model was able to reproduce the experimental results, but required coupling to particle nanostructure: partial oxidation of PAH molecules and the decrease in PAH initial sizes along the oxidation path. The principle reaction mechanism was identified to be the formation of oxyradicals, their decomposition, formation of hard-to-oxidize embedded five-member rings, and oxidation of the latter predominantly by O atoms. The analysis identified O as the most effective oxidizer of the embedded five-member rings, which thus controls the rate of the overall oxidation. The model thus predicts fast oxidation during a brief initial period followed by a slow-oxidation one. The model of partial oxidation of an aromatic molecule and switching to the next intact molecule suggests pore formation and subsequent inner particle burning. We also investigated the ability of the present model to reproduce recent measurements of soot oxidation rates performed by Camacho et al. (2015) at about 1000 K. The initial reaction model failed to predict these results, and no adjustment could reconcile the differences. The only way to bring the model to experimental values was by assuming a catalytic decomposition of water on the reactor wall supplying additional radicals, H and OH, to the reacting gas mixture. Additional chemistry, oxidation through complex formation at neighboring surface sites, was required to fully reproduce the experimental observations. These additional reactions were found to play no role in the high-temperature simulations, nor were they sufficient to reproduce the low-temperature experiment on their own, without the assumed catalytic decomposition of water.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Early detection and uncertainty quantification of rapid sea-level rise from Antarctica

Focal Areas: (i) classification and/or anomaly detection methods applied towards identifying critical climate system thresholds; improved emulator design for (ii) reducing computational costs relative to full-physics models and (iii) improved uncertainty quantification workflows. Rationale: The evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet in response to climate change remains the single largest uncertainty in projecting future sea-level rise (SLR), with risk-averse projections for 2100 spanning between zero and a half meter. During the past decade, DOE has made substantial investments in new ice sheet and Earth system models needed to improve both understanding and predictive capability in this area. Yet major challenges remain, including better understanding when and under what circumstances significant increases in SLR from Antarctica may be initiated and better quantifying uncertainties in model-based SLR projections. Here, we discuss the potential for transformative advances in these areas through the application of machine learning and artificial intelligence (ML and AI, respectively).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Production of energetic light fragments in extensions of the CEM and LAQGSM event generators of the Monte Carlo transport code MCNP6 [Production of energetic light fragments in CEM, LAQGSM, and MCNP6]

We extend the cascade-exciton model (CEM), and the Los Alamos version of the quark-gluon string model (LAQGSM), event generators of the Monte Carlo N-particle transport code version 6 (MCNP6), to describe production of energetic light fragments (LF) heavier than 4 He from various nuclear reactions induced by particles and nuclei at energies up to about 1 TeV/nucleon. In these models, energetic LF can be produced via Fermi breakup, preequilibrium emission, and coalescence of cascade particles. Initially, we study several variations of the Fermi breakup model and choose the best option for these models. Then, we extend the modified exciton model (MEM) used by these codes to account for a possibility of multiple emission of up to 66 types of particles and LF (up to 28 Mg) at the preequilibrium stage of reactions. Then, we expand the coalescence model to allow coalescence of LF from nucleons emitted at the intranuclear cascade stage of reactions and from lighter clusters, up to fragments with mass numbers A ≤ 7, in the case of CEM, and A ≤ 12, in the case of LAQGSM. Next, we modify MCNP6 to allow calculating and outputting spectra of LF and heavier products with arbitrary mass and charge numbers. The improved version of CEM is implemented into MCNP6. Lastly, we test the improved versions of CEM, LAQGSM, and MCNP6 on a variety of measured nuclear reactions. The modified codes give an improved description of energetic LF from particle- and nucleus-induced reactions; showing a good agreement with a variety of available experimental data. They have an improved predictive power compared to the previous versions and can be used as reliable tools in simulating applications involving such types of reactions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Mobility Data and Models Informing Smart Cities

DOE SMART Mobility Urban Science Efforts are helping use/develop key data sets, models, and roles for DOE in engaging across seven Smart City Finalists as well as for ensuring useful/useable insights. Austin, Texas, was targeted for analyses of opportunity (model and data maturity). Other Urban Science/broader SMART initiatives were also helped by this research.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Prioritizing the selection of CMIP6 model ensemble members for downscaling projections of CONUS temperature and precipitation

Given the mismatch between the large volume of data archived for the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and limited personnel and computational resources for downscaling, only a small fraction of the CMIP6 archive can be downscaled. In this work, we develop an approach to robustly sample projected hydroclimate states in CMIP6 for downscaling to test whether the selection of a single initial condition (IC) ensemble member from each CMIP6 model is sufficient to span the range of modeled hydroclimate over the conterminous United States (CONUS) and CONUS sub-regions. We calculate the pattern-centered root mean square difference of IC ensemble member anomalies relative to each model’s historical climatology for shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) projections over 30-year time periods and compare the ratio of inter-model to intra-model variability for this metric. Regardless of SSP, inter-model variability is generally much greater than intra-model variability at the scales of the CONUS as a whole, as well as for most CONUS sub-regions. However, for some variables and scenarios, inter- and intra-model variability are similar at sub-CONUS scales, indicating that selecting a single IC ensemble member per model may be sufficient to sample the range of projected hydroclimate states in the 21st Century across CONUS, but for specific regions and variables, more careful selection of ensemble members may be necessary. Regionally resolved Taylor diagrams identify where more IC ensemble member downscaling efforts should be focused if resources are available to do so. Our results suggest that, with parsimonious sampling, the requisite computational expense of downscaling temperature and precipitation fields over the CONUS for subsequent CMIP activities may increase only marginally despite the great increase in data volumes with each successive CMIP phase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗