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Understanding Biases in Pre-Construction Estimates

The pre-construction energy generation of a wind farm (P50) is difficult to estimate and evaluate. This paper presents a methodology to measure the accuracy of the p50 prediction, which we call the Historical Validation Survey (HVS), for several wind farms in the continental United States. Our results indicate that there is a bias between predicted and measured energy, even when controlling for factors like grid curtailment and resource variability. We also find that our results depend on the assumptions we make during analysis, which we quantify with a sensitivity analysis. This method allows the estimation of uncertainty we have in our findings. When we account for reasonable ranges of model assumptions, we find that, in the most optimistic case, there is still a bulk -5.5% bias when estimating pre-construction energy generation. When controlling for grid curtailment this number reduces to a range of -3.5 to -4.5%.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Optimization of tomographic reconstruction workflows on geographically distributed resources

New technological advancements in synchrotron light sources enable data acquisitions at unprecedented levels. This emergent trend affects not only the size of the generated data but also the need for larger computational resources. Although beamline scientists and users have access to local computational resources, these are typically limited and can result in extended execution times. Applications that are based on iterative processing as in tomographic reconstruction methods require high-performance compute clusters for timely analysis of data. Here, time-sensitive analysis and processing of Advanced Photon Source data on geographically distributed resources are focused on. Two main challenges are considered: (i) modeling of the performance of tomographic reconstruction workflows and (ii) transparent execution of these workflows on distributed resources. For the former, three main stages are considered: (i) data transfer between storage and computational resources, (i) wait/queue time of reconstruction jobs at compute resources, and (iii) computation of reconstruction tasks. These performance models allow evaluation and estimation of the execution time of any given iterative tomographic reconstruction workflow that runs on geographically distributed resources. For the latter challenge, a workflow management system is built, which can automate the execution of workflows and minimize the user interaction with the underlying infrastructure. The system utilizes Globus to perform secure and efficient data transfer operations. The proposed models and the workflow management system are evaluated by using three high-performance computing and two storage resources, all of which are geographically distributed. Workflows were created with different computational requirements using two compute-intensive tomographic reconstruction algorithms. Experimental evaluation shows that the proposed models and system can be used for selecting the optimum resources, which in turn can provide up to 3.13× speedup (on experimented resources). Furthermore, the error rates of the models range between 2.1 and 23.3% (considering workflow execution times), where the accuracy of the model estimations increases with higher computational demands in reconstruction tasks.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

On the unsteady Darcy–Forchheimer–Brinkman equation in local and nonlocal tumor growth models

A mathematical analysis of local and nonlocal phase-field models of tumor growth is presented that includes time-dependent Darcy–Forchheimer–Brinkman models of convective velocity fields and models of long-range cell interactions. A complete existence analysis is provided. In addition, a parameter-sensitivity analysis is described that quantifies the sensitivity of key quantities of interest to changes in parameter values. Two sensitivity analyses are examined; one employing statistical variances of model outputs and another employing the notion of active subspaces based on existing observational data. Remarkably, the two approaches yield very similar conclusions on sensitivity for certain quantities of interest. The work concludes with the presentation of numerical approximations of solutions of the governing equations and results of numerical experiments on tumor growth produced using finite element discretizations of the full tumor model for representative cases.

Mathematics↗

xLPR Post-Processing Documentation

The outputs available in the xLPR Version 2.0 code can be analyzed using statistical techniques that have been developed to compare sampling scheme selection, identify inputs for importance sampling, and assess result convergence and uncertainty. These techniques were developed and piloted for both the xLPR Scenario Analysis (SA) Report and the xLPR Sensitivity Analysis Template. This document provides a walk-through of the post-processing R code that was used to generate the results and figures presented in these documents. This page intentionally left blank.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DECOVALEX2019 Task C: Results of Step 2 modeling

The work for Step 1 performed at Sandia National Laboratories and reported in Section 7 has been updated to incorporate new data and to conduct new simulations using a new larger base case domain. The new simulations also include statistical analysis for different fracture realizations. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to the study of the effect of domain size. A much larger mesh was selected to minimize boundary effects. The DFN model was upscaled to the new base case domain and the much larger domain to generate relevant permeability and porosity fields for each case. The calculations updated for Step 2 are described in Section 12.1. New calculations have also been conducted to model the flooding of the CTD and the resulting pressure recovery. The modeling includes matching of pressure and chloride experimental data at the six observation locations in Well 12M133. The modeling was done for the 10 fracture realizations. The Step 2 recovery simulations are described in Section 12.2. The Step 2 work is summarized in Section 12.3.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Uses of Sensitivity/Uncertainty Techniques for Critical Experiment Design [Slides]

This presentation discusses the programming languages TSUNAMI and TSAR. It also provides a review of experimental designs using sensitivity analysis in regard to 7uPCX fuel design, fission product experiment analysis, MIRTE, and temperature dependent experiments at the Sandia Pulsed Reactor Facility (SPRF).

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Performance Assessment for the E-Area Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Facility at the Savannah River Site: Appendix F

As a supplement to Chapter 6, Section 6.1.1.3, Table F-1 through Table F-24 provide tabular results of the sensitivity analysis calculations for waste disposal timing (Sensitivity Case S6) in NR07E (Cases 3 and 4) and NR26E (Cases 1 through 4). The title of each table identifies the DU, sensitivity case, and performance measure. Section F.1.1 (Table F-1 through Table F-8) presents results for NR07E and Section F.1.2 (Table F-9 through Table F-24) presents results for NR26E. In each table, radionuclides are sorted from highest to lowest nominal concentration or dose factor. Nominal values are when waste disposal occurs at the start of operations; timeline values are when waste disposal occurs at the end of operations. The differences (Δ values) in the last column of each table equal the timeline concentration or dose factor minus the nominal concentration or dose factor, where DF and CF are shorthand designations for dose factor and concentration factor, respectively.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Minimum weight design of rectangular and tapered helicopter rotor blades with frequency constraints

The minimum weight design of a helicopter rotor blade subject to constraints on coupled flap-lag natural frequencies has been studied. A constraint has also been imposed on the minimum value of the autorotational inertia of the blade in order to ensure that it has sufficient inertia to autorotate in the case of engine failure. The program CAMRAD is used for the blade modal analysis and CONMIN is used for the optimization. In addition, a linear approximation analysis involving Taylor series expansion has been used to reduce the analysis effort. The procedure contains a sensitivity analysis which consists of analytical derivatives of the objective function and the autorotational inertia constraint and central finite difference derivatives of the frequency constraints. Optimum designs have been obtained for both rectangular and tapered blades. Design variables include taper ratio, segment weights, and box beam dimensions. It is shown that even when starting with an acceptable baseline design, a significant amount of weight reduction is possible while satisfying all the constraints for both rectangular and tapered blades.

Chattopadhyay, Aditi↗

Minimum weight design of rotorcraft blades with multiple frequency and stress constraints

Minimum weight designs of helicopter rotor blades with constraints on multiple coupled flap-lag natural frequencies are studied. Constraints are imposed on the minimum value of the blade autorotational inertia to ensure sufficient rotary inertia to autorotate in case of engine failure and on stresses to guard against structural failure due to blade centrifugal forces. Design variables include blade taper ratio, dimensions of the box beam located inside the airfoil and magnitudes of nonstructural weights. The program CAMRAD is used for the blade modal analysis; the program CONMIN is used for the optimization. A linear approximation involving Taylor series expansion is used to reduce the analysis effort. The procedure contains a sensitivity analysis consisting of analytical derivatives for objective function and constraints on autorotational inertia and stresses. Central finite difference derivatives are used for frequency constraints. Optimal designs are obtained for both rectangular and tapered blades. Using this method, it is possible to design a rotor blade with reduced weight, when compared to a baseline blade, while satisfying all the imposed design requirements.

Chattopadhyay, Aditi↗

Minimum weight design of rectangular and tapered helicopter rotor blades with frequency constraints

The minimum weight design of a helicopter rotor blade subject to constraints on coupled flap-lag natural frequencies has been studied. A constraint has also been imposed on the minimum value of the autorotational inertia of the blade in order to ensure that it has sufficient inertia to aurorotate in the case of engine failure. The program CAMRAD is used for the blade modal analysis and CONMIN is used for the optimization. In addition, a linear approximation analysis involving Taylor series expansion has been used to reduce the analysis effort. The procedure contains a sensitivity analysis which consists of analytical derivatives of the objective function and the autorotational inertia constraint and central finite difference derivatives of the frequency constraints. Optimum designs have been obtained for both rectangular and tapered blades. Design variables include taper ratio, segment weights, and box beam dimensions. It is shown that even when starting with an acceptable baseline design, a significant amount of weight reduction is possible while satisfying all the constraints for both rectangular and tapered blades.

Chattopadhyay, Aditi↗

Minimum weight design of helicopter rotor blades with frequency constraints

The minimum weight design of helicopter rotor blades subject to constraints on fundamental coupled flap-lag natural frequencies has been studied in this paper. A constraint has also been imposed on the minimum value of the blade autorotational inertia to ensure that the blade has sufficient inertia to autorotate in case of an engine failure. The program CAMRAD has been used for the blade modal analysis and the program CONMIN has been used for the optimization. In addition, a linear approximation analysis involving Taylor series expansion has been used to reduce the analysis effort. The procedure contains a sensitivity analysis which consists of analytical derivatives of the objective function and the autorotational inertia constraint and central finite difference derivatives of the frequency constraints. Optimum designs have been obtained for blades in vacuum with both rectangular and tapered box beam structures. Design variables include taper ratio, nonstructural segment weights and box beam dimensions. The paper shows that even when starting with an acceptable baseline design, a significant amount of weight reduction is possible while satisfying all the constraints for blades with rectangular and tapered box beams.

Chattopadhyay, Aditi↗

Potential Impact of Land Use Change on Future Regional Climate in the Southeastern U.S.: Reforestation and Crop Land Conversion

The impact of future land use and land cover changes (LULCC) on regional and global climate is one of the most challenging aspects of understanding anthropogenic climate change. We study the impacts of LULCC on regional climate in the southeastern U.S. by downscaling the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model E to the regional scale using a spectral nudging technique with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Climate-relevant meteorological fields are compared for two southeastern U.S. LULCC scenarios to the current land use/cover for four seasons of the year 2050. In this work it is shown that reforestation of cropland in the southeastern U.S. tends to warm surface air by up to 0.5 K, while replacing forested land with cropland tends to cool the surface air by 0.5 K. Processes leading to this response are investigated and sensitivity analyses conducted. The sensitivity analysis shows that results are most sensitive to changes in albedo and the stomatal resistance. Evaporative cooling of croplands also plays an important role in regional climate. Implications of LULCC on air quality are discussed. Summertime warming associated with reforestation of croplands could increase the production of some secondary pollutants, while a higher boundary layer will decrease pollutant concentrations; wintertime warming may decrease emissions from biomass burning from wood stoves

Regional climate change↗

Adjoint Sensitivity of FARMS to the Forecasting Variables of WRF-Solar: Preprint

This study presents the development and application of an adjoint model for investigating the sensitivity of solar radiation to forecasted variables from WRF-Solar. The first part of this study focuses on developing an adjoint model for the Fast All-sky Model for Solar Applications (FARMS) to investigate the input variables having the highest sensitivity to global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI), which are the output variables. The applicability and usefulness of the adjoint sensitivity approach are demonstrated by conducting a sensitivity analysis under various scenarios defined by low, medium, and high values for the input variables. This preliminary study uses elasticity values to understand the sensitivity of solar radiation to the input variables (e.g. solar zenith angle, Angstrom turbidity coefficient, and cloud optical depth) of FARMS. This presentation will illustrate the implemented methodology and the obtained sensitivity results for FARMS, as well as future research steps that will lead to the development of high-quality probabilistic solar forecasts.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Field Validation of Thermoelectric Generation System at Holcim Cement Plant in Alpena, Michigan

Executive Summary Project Background The Industrial Technology Validation (ITV) program aims to identify and demonstrate the performance of new, emerging, and underutilized energy-saving technologies in the industrial sector to help inform decisions to help accelerate their commercialization and deployment, as well as to help make industries more competitive. This ITV demonstration evaluated a thermoelectric generation (TEG) technology at a cement plant, aiming to reduce energy demand in the cement industry. A median cement plant consumes 5.73 million British thermal units per ton of clinker production (resulting in 0.838 metric tons of carbon dioxide [CO₂] emissions per ton of clinker) (Boyd and Zhang 2011, EPA 2021), equivalent to approximately 6.9 trillion British thermal units (TBtu) per year in energy consumption at a cement plant producing 3,300 tons of clinker per day.¹ Collaborating with Holcim, Advanced Thermovoltaic Systems (ATS) developed and deployed a pilot-scale thermoelectric power system to efficiently capture and convert waste heat to electricity. The system leverages the Seebeck effect to convert temperature differences on two sides of semiconductor cartridges into electrical power (ScienceDirect, n.d.). This generation is realized with minimal moving parts compared to existing waste-heat-to-generation solutions and allows capture from heat sources with temperatures as low as 150°C. This project aimed to validate a scalable solution applicable for capturing medium-temperature waste heat, including ambient losses from other high-temperature processes, and high-temperature sources less suitable for other waste-heat-to-power solutions. By recovering this otherwise wasted heat, this project intends to validate improvements to overall process efficiency through reduction in purchased electricity, thereby reducing operational costs while enhancing resiliency and competitiveness. Description and Scope This study evaluated the performance of a TEG system from ATS as a solution to convert waste heat into useful power at a Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan. This plant is a fully integrated cement plant that has been operating since 1907. The facility operates continuously (24/7/365) with approximately 250 employees and five long dry kilns, yielding a total production capacity of 7,852 tons of cement per day (EPA 2023). Currently, the Alpena plant uses waste heat boilers to convert waste heat from the exhaust of each kiln into steam, which drives steam turbine generators. The ATS TEG is being evaluated for its potential to supplement the steam turbines by capturing the remaining lower grade heat. This technology is also being considered for other Holcim plants where steam turbines are not a viable option. ATS installed a pilot-scale TEG unit with an array of 582 individual thermoelectric semiconductor cartridges, of which 573 were operational. The cartridges are sandwiched between 48 hot plates and 49 cold plates. Each cartridge is designed to generate 20 watts (W) of gross power at a hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. As such, the total gross generation capacity of the installed system is 11.5 kilowatts (kW) at design conditions. The system configuration for the evaluation was designed to prioritize convenience of installation and minimize disruption to production at the site, while ensuring that the heat required can be obtained for evaluating the TEG system at various operational conditions. To accomplish this, a portion of the steam supplied to Alpena’s steam turbine generation system was diverted to be used as the heat source for the TEG system, while water was supplied to the cold side of the system from nearby Lake Huron. This configuration was designed for the evaluation of the pilot-scale system to assess the performance at different conditions. A commercial-scale system will likely vary from the pilot system depending on typical configurations, including both scale and application. Future commercial applications of the ATS system would involve integrating the system into the exhaust from kiln preheaters, clinker coolers, or radiant heat capture from kiln shells for the heat source. For the cold source, a range of cooling solutions can be considered, including a mechanical cooling system, depending on the location and the application. To increase the generation capacity for commercial applications, the technology provider is working toward developing a commercial-scale TEG system, which would combine multiple TEG units (each similar in design to the pilot system) together. The scope of this evaluation includes the pilot-scale TEG system and all impacted equipment including pumps, controllers, and power handling equipment. Study Objectives The evaluation's goal was to assess the potential of the ATS TEG system to generate useful electrical power by capturing waste heat from cement production kilns. The objectives of this study are to evaluate and verify the following claims made by ATS regarding the pilot-scale system installed at the Holcim Alpena plant. The following design parameters and claims are also outlined in Table ES- 1 and Table ES- 2: • Gross Power: The thermoelectric system converts heat into power to create gross power, the total measured power generated by the system. The 573 active cartridge pilot-scale system is expected to generate 11.5 kW of gross power at the designed hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C. Power production is dependent on the temperature difference between the heat source (ultimately from the waste heat) and cold temperature supply source. • Net Power: The net power is the total usable power provided to the site by the TEG system after deducting parasitic power loads from the gross generated power. Supplementary equipment is required to operate the TEG system including pumps, controllers, and, in certain anticipated applications, mechanical cooling, which introduce parasitic loads to system operation. After deducting the parasitic loads from the gross power generation, ATS anticipates achieving a net power generation of 7.5 kW from the pilot-scale system. • Thermal Efficiency: The thermal efficiency is the percent of the total heat transferred to the TEG system that is converted to gross power. Historically, TEGs have a thermal efficiency of 2%–5% (DOE 2008). Prior industrial-scale TEG systems, such as the E1 TEG offered by Alphabet Energy, operated at an efficiency of 2.5% (Lamonica, 2014). ATS anticipates achieving an average efficiency of 4.8% or higher in converting heat energy to usable electricity. • Cartridge Performance: The TEG system comprises 573 active individual semiconductor cartridges, each of which generates a portion of the total power. Cartridge optimization and selection is an important design consideration for potential future TEG system design performance. Therefore, understanding the distribution of gross power and efficiency within the pilot system is vital to understanding what is achievable. At a design hot-side temperature of 240°C and cold-side temperature of 20°C, ATS anticipates a cartridge performance of 20 W of gross power per cartridge at an efficiency of 4.8% per cartridge. In addition to evaluating the claimed performance of the TEG pilot-scale unit, the study estimated the potential annual impacts of a scaled-up commercial system used to capture kiln waste heat over annual operations. The evaluation estimated the gross and net annual electric generation achievable by capturing heat from the two proposed tap-in points: the kiln exhaust and the clinker cooler exhaust; see Section 2.1 for details. Two use cases were examined: • Holcim Alpena: The Holcim Alpena site consists of long dry kilns with superheater boilers, which differs from the rest of Holcim’s cement plant portfolio and results in lower waste heat temperatures. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the superheater boiler exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, based on 2023 operational data. • Typical Installation: Common cement plants have preheater kilns with higher exhaust temperatures than Holcim Alpena across a range of production rates. The study estimates gross and net annual generation using the preheater exhaust and clinker cooler exhaust, with a sensitivity analysis to account for the typical range of preheater exhaust temperatures, clinker cooler exhaust temperatures, and clinker production rates. Methodology The evaluation methodology followed a measurement and verification (M&V) strategy based on the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol Option B through comprehensive measurements and analyses of the affected systems. Evaluation data was collected from March 9 to March 11, 2024, the test period of the pilot TEG system. During the test period, in coordination with the ITV team, the ATS team adjusted system operations to capture the range of variability expected for each of the variables pertinent to performance of the system. The methodology consisted of two parts: evaluating the performance of the pilot unit's TEG system and estimating the annual TEG impact in terms of gross and net power based on a given waste heat profile. First, the evaluation of the thermoelectric generation performance of the pilot unit relative to the claims was performed by analyzing the collected test data. Gross power of the pilot TEG system was directly measured. Net power was determined by deducting the measured parasitic power from the gross power. The gross power generation was compared to heat transferred to the system by the working fluid (which was heated by steam generated from the kiln waste heat) to calculate the thermal efficiency achieved by the system. Performance of individual semiconductor cartridges within the pilot array was also assessed in terms of measured gross cartridge power and calculated cartridge thermal efficiency. The second part of the evaluation estimated the annual TEG impacts in terms of gross power and net power (calculated from the difference between gross power and parasitic power). This analysis comprised development of mathematical regression models for gross power and parasitic power, with assessment of each model’s goodness-of-fit characteristics to ensure satisfaction of statistical requirements. The models predicted the gross power generation, the parasitic load based on the temperature difference between the hot working fluid and the cold-side fluid (cold water from Lake Huron) entering the system, the volumetric flow rate of the cold-side fluid at the inlet, and the volumetric flow rate of the hot working fluid at the inlet. The annual impact analysis considered a theoretical commercial-scale system sized to capture the available waste heat at a cement plant, consisting of linked pilot-scale units that receive heat from a theoretical gas-to-working-fluid heat exchanger. To estimate annual impacts at the Alpena plant, the gross power and parasitic power regression models were applied to the arrays in the theoretical commercial-scale system. The heat supplied to the unit was calculated based on the kiln run time, annual production, kiln exhaust waste heat, and clinker cooler waste heat derived from 2023 Holcim Alpena kiln operational data. Net power impacts were calculated by deducting the resulting parasitic power from the estimated gross power. Inputs for the model were generated from a combination of hourly data, assumed design considerations for TEG system scale-up from the pilot-scale unit, and assumptions regarding TEG system operations. This analysis was then used as the basis for estimating annual impacts of typical TEG installation at cement plants, by applying sensitivity analyses to key kiln operational characteristics including kiln preheater exhaust temperatures, cooler clinker exhaust temperatures, and plant daily production rates across a range of expected values. Project Results/Findings Table ES- 2 and Table ES- 2 provide a summary of the operating conditions and evaluation results compared to the stated claims from the technology provider. Key takeaways include: • Gross Power: The peak gross power achieved during the testing period was 10.0 kW, compared to the 11.5 kW expected for 573 active cartridges. The claimed gross power was associated with a target hot side of 240°C; however, the system only received a maximum hot-side mean plate temperature of 212°C during the testing period. • Net Power: The pilot-scale unit exceeded the claims for net power, achieving a peak of 7.7 kW net compared to a claim of 7.5 kW. One factor contributing to the higher achieved net power is the relatively high water pressure available through Lake Huron. The pilot TEG system did not require cold-side pumps during the test, whereas most installations would. This reduced the parasitic loads on the system, ultimately contributing to higher net power relative to the gross power. • Thermal Efficiency: The pilot-scale unit outperformed the claimed efficiency, achieving a peak system efficiency of 5.0% thermal efficiency compared to the stated 4.8%. • Cartridge Performance: To compare cartridge performance against claims, the study focused on the third day of testing, which aimed for conditions closest to the design specifications, with a hot side of 240°C and cold-side exit temperature of 6.4°–30°C. On this day, the mean gross power observed in the cartridges within the TEG array was 18.1 W/cartridge, and the peak performance was 34.7 W/cartridge. The estimated mean cartridge efficiency was 5.2%, and the estimated efficiency at peak gross cartridge power was 10%. The regression models developed for gross power generation and parasitic loads were used to estimate the generation impact for given heat input to the TEG from the working fluid (captured from the waste heat) and from the cold loop (Lake Huron) on an hourly basis for a year of operation. Based on this analysis, installation of a commercial-scale TEG system at the Holcim cement plant in Alpena, Michigan, with a waste heat exchanger of 0.85 effectiveness, would generate up to 391 kW of net power, translating to between 920,000 and 1,800,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) in net electricity per year. Based on typical grid emissions for Alpena, this would avoid estimated net emissions by 752 metric tons of CO₂ annually.² The sensitivity analysis estimated that typical TEG system installations at cement plants could generate an average of 56–1,040 kW of net power, or between 488,000 and 9,110,000 kWh of net energy. This generation potential is most significantly affected by plant production rates and also influenced by preheater and clinker cooler exhaust temperatures. Applying the national average emission rate, typical commercial-scale installations at Holcim plants are projected to avoid between 182 and 3,401 metric tons of CO₂ annually per site. Table ES- 3 shows a summary of the estimated annual impacts.³ While parasitic loads are significant and vary by application, this analysis assumed the use of heating loop pumps and access to Lake Huron as a cold sink. This setup assumed no need for cooling loop pumps due to the available water pressure at the test site. Applications that require cooling towers or additional equipment are likely to experience higher parasitic loads. Therefore, the study’s estimates are most applicable to scenarios with similar parasitic load configurations—namely, access to a high-pressure cold sink. Applicability to other locations may be limited, as differing conditions could necessitate additional pumps and cooling systems, potentially impacting performance significantly.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Shape optimization using a NURBS-based interface-enriched generalized FEM

This study presents a gradient-based shape optimization over a fixed mesh using a non-uniform rational B-splines-based interface-enriched generalized finite element method, applicable to multi-material structures. In the proposed method, non-uniform rational B-splines are used to parameterize the design geometry precisely and compactly by a small number of design variables. An analytical shape sensitivity analysis is developed to compute derivatives of the objective and constraint functions with respect to the design variables. Subtle but important new terms involve the sensitivity of shape functions and their spatial derivatives. As a result, verification and illustrative problems are solved to demonstrate the precision and capability of the method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Sensitivity and Importance Measure Analyses for Various Design Architectures for High Safety-Significant Safety-Related Digital Instrumentation and Control Systems of Nuclear Power Plants

A transition from analog instrumentation and control (I&C) technologies to digital I&C technologies is taking place for license renewals of existing nuclear power plants and for operating licenses of new advanced reactors. This transition necessitates research on risk and economic assessments of digital I&C technologies to ensure the long-term safety and reliability of vital systems, reduce uncertainty in licensing costs in addition to timeline, support integration of digital I&C systems in the plant, and find the most efficient technology upgrades. Adding redundancy within systems or components is a common means of improving design safety; however, it can also make designs more prone to common-cause failures (CCFs). Introducing diversity into redundant systems or components is a way to mitigate and possibly eliminate CCFs, but it also increases plant complexity and may be costly. The balance between redundancy and diversity remains a challenge for digital I&C systems. This study performs sensitivity and importance analyses for four design architectures of two digital I&C systems—the reactor-trip system and the engineered safety features actuation system. For each system, two architectures are examined, including a redundant, non-diverse configuration and a redundant, diverse configuration. The sensitivity analysis will provide insights on the impact of introducing diversity to system reliability. The importance results will help identify risk-significant and risk-sensitive components and failure modes, which may be good candidates for future design improvement.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Technoeconomic analysis of perovskite/silicon tandem solar modules

Tandem photovoltaic (PV) modules offer an opportunity to improve the efficiency and energy yield of available solar resources compared with single-junction devices. Here, we present a cost model and sensitivity analysis of perovskite/silicon (Si) tandem modules to understand how design choices impact overall module costs. We find a minimum sustainable price (MSP) of $\$$0.428/W DC for our baseline two-terminal design and $\$$0.423/W DC for our baseline four-terminal design, each at a module efficiency of 25% and module production of 3 GW per year in the United States. We find that the choice of Si cell architecture, overall module efficiency, and factory throughput have the most significant impacts on cost and competitiveness. The dynamic model provided is designed for researchers, companies, and interested individuals to use and edit as needed to better understand the trade-offs among PV module technologies and enable targeted research to improve module design and fabrication.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Silicon solar cells, a manufacturing cost analysis

A detailed cost analysis of solar cell module manufacturing, utilizing process sequences incorporating near-term technology, has been performed. The entire structuring of a factory to manufacture solar cell modules, starting from supplied polycrystalline silicon and other raw materials, was specified. This analysis then formed the basis for a sensitivity analysis of the major cost factors. The results of the cost and sensitivity analyses are presented here.

Grenon, L. A.↗