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The NASA Low-Pressure Turbine Flow Physics Program: A Review

An overview of the NASA Glenn Low-Pressure Turbine (LPT) Flow Physics Program will be presented. The flow in the LPT is unique for the gas turbine. It is characterized by low Reynolds number and high freestream turbulence intensity and is dominated by interplay of three basic mechanisms: transition, separation and wake interaction. The flow of most interest is on the suction surface, where large losses are generated due to separation. The LPT is a large, multistage, heavy, jet engine component that suffers efficiency degradation between takeoff and cruise conditions due to decrease in Reynolds number with altitude. The performance penalty is around 2 points for large commercial bypass engines and as much as 7 points for small, high cruise altitude, military engines. The gas-turbine industry is very interested in improving the performance of the LPT and in reducing its weight, part count and cost. Many improvements can be accomplished by improved airfoil design, mainly by increasing the airfoil loading that can yield reduction of airfoils and improved performance. In addition, there is a strong interest in reducing the design cycle time and cost. Key enablers of the needed improvements are computational tools that can accurately predict LPT flows. Current CFD tools in use cannot yet satisfactorily predict the unsteady, transitional and separated flow in the LPT. The main reasons are inadequate transition & turbulence models and incomplete understanding of the LPT flow physics. NASA Glenn has established its LPT program to answer these needs. The main goal of the program is to develop and assess models for unsteady CFD of LPT flows. An approach that consists of complementing and augmenting experimental and computational work elements has been adopted. The work is performed in-house and by several academic institutions, in cooperation and interaction with industry. The program was reviewed at the Minnowbrook II meeting in 1997. This review will summarize the progress that was made since and will introduce newly started projects. The LPT program is focused on three areas: acquisition of experimental and numerical databases and on modeling and computation. Priority was initially given to experiments. There are three classes of experiments: simulated LPT passages, linear cascade, both with and without wakes, and low-speed rotating rig. They are being conducted as follows: At NASA GRC on a flat surface with blade pressure distribution, at the US Naval Academy on a curved surface. The addition of wakes is studied at the University of Minnesota in a curved passage with a retractable wake generator, and at Texas A&M University in a linear cascade with continuously running wake generator. The pressure distribution of the Pratt & Whitney blade 'Pak B' is used in all these experiments. Experiments have been performed also in the GEAE Low-Speed Rotating Turbine (LSRT) rig with GE-designed airfoils. Work on numerically generated database is in progress at the University of Kentucky, using the DNS/LES code LESTool developed there. Turbulence/transition model assessment and development is performed also at the University of Kentucky, where a new intermittency transport model was developed and many experimental test cases have been numerically computed. Assessments of models using simulations of multistage LPT experiments were performed at Virginia Commonwealth University using the Corsair code. Work on suction surface separation delay, using passive and active flow-control, has also been initiated. Following the overview, Principal Investigators attending the workshop will present in detail several of the projects supported by NASA.

Ashpis, David E.↗

Collaborative Research: Natural Organic Matter and Microbial Controls on Mobilization/Immobilization of I and Pu in Soils and Waters Affected by Radionuclide Releases in USA and Japan

In this project, the relationship between natural organic matter (NOM) and two radioactive elements that are relevant to nuclear waste disposal were studied: Plutonium (Pu) and Iodine. The human and environmental risks associated with Pu stem mainly from the very long half-lives of several of its isotopes ( 238 Pu, 88 yr; 239 Pu, 24,100 yr; 240 Pu, 6560 yr) and its radiotoxicity. Understanding Pu biogeochemical behavior in both near-field (>10-11M) and far-field scales (<10-11M) is imperative to the development of approaches for reprocessing Pu, remediation of Pu contamination and accurate assessment of risks posed by disposal practices for Pu-bearing wastes. The environmental mobility of Pu can be affected by redox potential, pH, adsorption, precipitation, complexation, colloid formation, and microbial activity, of which the first characteristic has the most profound influence. Numerous studies have shown high affinity of Pu towards NOM, as well as to mineral phases. NOM is ubiquitous in the environment, e.g., both fulvic and humic acids are able to reduce Pu(V,VI) to Pu(IV) and the redox potential of NOM is positively related to the abundance of phenolic/acidic OH groups. NOM can either facilitate or limit actinide migration, depending on specific biogeochemical conditions including pH, mineral and organic matter characteristics, etc. The other radionuclide of interest is radioiodine ( 129 I). 129I is a major by-product of nuclear fission and of serious concern to the Department of Energy (DOE) as it is among the top risk drivers at existing and potential radiowaste-contaminated sites. The risk of 129 I stems largely from its high bioconcentration factor (90% of the body’s iodine is accumulated in the thyroid), a high inventory at source terms, a very long-half life (16M years), and rapid mobility in the subsurface environment. As a consequence, 129 I has the lowest drinking water standard (1 pCi/L) among all radionuclides in the Federal Register. With a novel and sensitive gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) method developed in our lab, it is possible to quickly and simultaneously determine the distribution of 129 I and stable 127 I forms in environments, as low as 2 pCi/L for 129 I. This method was subsequently validated using accelerator mass spectroscopy, AMS. IO 3 - and organo-I were determined as major species in the groundwater of SRS and the Hanford Site, contrary to thermodynamic predictions that I- should be the dominant species at these sites. Mobility of 129 I was also demonstrated to depend greatly on the I species and its concentration, sediment pH, and redox state, with times to achieve equilibrium taking up to 12 weeks. Along the groundwater pathway in the F-Area of SRS, 129 I- supplied from the seepage basins was transformed to 129 IO 3 - and organo- 129 I with increasing iodine sediment sorption, causing the lower total 127 I and 129 I concentrations along the gradient transect of the waste plume. By contrast, groundwater 129 I concentrations in the wetlands (as high as 1617.3 pCi/L) were greatly elevated with respect to the source term (159.3 pCi/L). While the NOM promoted the uptake of 129 I to the wetland sediment, it also promoted the formation of soluble organic fraction. A small fraction of NOM that is bound to iodine can behave as a mobile organo-I source. Iodide was enzymatically incorporated into NOM, whereas both iodide and iodate were abiotically bound to NOM, under certain conditions. Iodate removal from the mobile aqueous phase can also occur through incorporation into carbonate (e.g., at the Hanford Site, USA). Thus immobilization and re-mobilization of iodine species were influenced by pH, Eh and the presence of NOM and metal oxides, which adds to the complexity of site remediation action. A ground-breaking result was to elucidate the products (i.e. organo-iodine moieties formed via enzymatic and non-enzymatic processes) at the molecular level by nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and electrospray ionization Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (ESI-FTICRMS). We found that iodine-NOM interactions may be influenced by NOM hydrophobic aliphatic moieties. From the perspective of ESI-FTICRMS, organo-iodine formulas were ascribed to the groups of unsaturated hydrocarbons, lignins and proteins. Iodate is likely abiotically reduced to reactive iodine species by lignin- and tannin-like compounds or carboxylic-rich alicyclic molecules (CRAM). We also investigated microbial mechanisms in iodine incorporation into NOM. We established that soil bacteria isolated from F-Area of SRS did not accumulate significant amounts of I- (0.2-2%). Intracellular uptake of I- decreases with increasing pH when pH ranged from 4 to 6. In contrast, 44 out of 84 strains isolated from the F-Area of SRS can transform I- to IO 3 - and organo-iodine. In some cases, oxidation was facilitated in the presence of H 2 O 2 . Microbes can also excrete organic acids that enhance I- oxidation by lowering the ambient pH and reacting with H 2 O 2 to form peroxy carboxylic acids. At lower pH values (≤5), H 2 O 2 hydrolysis was the driving force for iodide-oxidation; whereas, at pH ≥ 6, spontaneous decomposition of peroxy carboxylic acids, originating from H 2 O 2 and organic acids were the primary cause of iodide oxidation. Lastly, it was determined that microbial processes involved in Mn (II) are capable of directly oxidizing I- via enzymatic catalysis (i.e., multicopper oxidases), or indirectly through the formation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) and/or biogenic manganese oxides. ROS-mediated oxidation of I- was found to predominate at pH >5, whereas the enzymatic and Mn oxide pathways were more active at pH < 5. Together, this project has resulted in 9 publications in high-impact journals, and the training of 1 Ph.D and 4 undergraduate students.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Theory and Simulation of Ultrafast Multidimensional Nonlinear X-ray Spectroscopy of Molecules (Final Report)

Emerging X-ray free electron laser (XFEL) beam sources offer new types of probes of matter with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolutions. These experimental advances must be met by robust theoretical and computational tools that provide predictive modeling capacity of the underlining electronic and structural dynamics. The latter will be essential for the design of sophisticated multi-pulse experiments and for their interpretation. The proposed research effort will focus on developing cutting- edge simulation tools for nonlinear multidimensional X-ray/optical spectroscopies and aims to address key questions in Priority Research Opportunities 1 (Probing and controlling electron motion within a molecule) and 3 (Capturing rare events and intermediate states in the transformation of matter) as mentioned in the BES Roundtable Report “Opportunities for Basic Research at the Frontiers of XFEL Ultrafast Science”. XFEL multidimensional nonlinear techniques, which combine sequences of X-ray and possibly optical pulses, provide a unique experimental toolbox for probing the dynamics of core and valence electronic excitations, as well as material structure. Predictive modeling of these dynamical processes requires the combination of analytical theory for nonlinear interactions of light and matter, robust quantum-chemical methodologies for the accurate description of electronic structure of various materials, and multiscale ab initio electron and nuclear dynamics techniques operating beyond Born-Oppenheimer approximation. These challenges will be addressed with three research thrusts (i) Develop and implement theoretical apparatus for modeling a broad range of multidimensional spectroscopic techniques enabled by present and upcoming XFEL facilities. This thrust also includes the incorporation of a computational module in the DOE supported open-source NWChem computational chemistry package as well as the development of other open-source codes ready for dissemination across a broad user base; (ii) Propose and design new multi-pulse experiments that make use of the capabilities of the incoming LCLS-II facility; (iii) Perform selected applications to specific molecular systems that can be carried out at LCLS-II and demonstrate how these X-ray sources may be used to study nonadiabatic dynamics through conical interactions, electronic correlations in multi-core excitons, and charge transfer/energy transfer processes. The proposed research will be carried out by a multi-disciplinary four-institution research team which combines academia and national laboratories and spans the broad and necessary expertise in theoretical spectroscopy, nonlinear optics, quantum chemistry, molecular non-adiabatic dynamics and code development. The work will be performed in a highly interactive team environment with junior researchers shared between institutions thus cementing cross- disciplinary interactions. The developed simulation tools will be immediately deployed for XFEL facility users, both experimentalists and theorists, via freely distributed codes and databases. Altogether, this project will facilitate establishing XFEL-based multidimensional spectroscopies as a novel diagnostic tool for monitoring electronic and structural dynamics in molecular materials.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

The Influence of African Easterly Waves on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks and Landfall in Large Ensembles

African easterly waves (AEWs) are an important precursor or “seed” for Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs), with 60%–80% of major hurricanes observed to originate from AEWs. However, climate model simulations indicate that AEWs are not necessary to maintain annual Atlantic TC frequency. Furthermore, small ensembles suggest that AEWs may impact the spatial distribution and landfall of Atlantic TCs. Here, we investigated the influence of AEWs on the spatial distribution of Atlantic TC tracks and landfall using 50-member ensembles of TC-permitting regional model simulations for five hurricane seasons characterized by different levels of TC activity. The control simulations are seasonal hindcasts in which AEWs were prescribed through the eastern lateral boundary condition using reanalysis. In the experiments, we suppressed AEWs by applying a 2–10 day filter to the eastern lateral boundary condition. In response to AEW suppression, we discovered statistically significant increases in Atlantic TC frequency (10%–26%) and landfall (16%–44%), a westward shift in TC genesis location and tracks with increased landfall over the Caribbean Islands, southwestern Gulf Coast, and southeastern US coast, and increases in mid-tropospheric relative humidity in the main development region. In addition, we evaluated TC genesis mechanisms in the absence of AEWs and found evidence that the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) intensified and extended northward, resulting in ITCZ wave-breaking that shed vortices which served as TC seeds. By uncovering the connections between TC seed types and the likelihood of TC landfall, this research can provide Atlantic coastal and island communities with useful information to prepare for TC impacts.

African easterly waves↗

Solar Resource Calibration, Measurement, and Dissemination: Final Report FY 2016-FY 2018

The Solar Resource Calibration, Measurement, and Dissemination project supports the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) initiative to make solar energy cost-competitive with other forms of electricity by improving the tools and methods to measure and model solar radiation and therefore reduce uncertainty in predicting solar output and improve the bankability of solar projects. This project has three tasks that conduct research on advancing solar resource measurements and modeling: Task 1: Applied solar Radiation Measurements. Task 2: National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB). Task 3: Knowledge Sharing. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Solar Radiation Research Laboratory (SRRL) activities ensure traceable solar measurements throughout the United States that are essential for project feasibility, due diligence, financing, and plant operations. The SRRL houses NREL's Baseline Measurement System (BMS), which provides a platform for improving the accuracy of solar measurements through research to improve the calibration and characterization of instruments and enable the development of new measurement technology and standards. The platform contains a variety of instruments measuring solar radiation and other meteorological parameters. Following best practices, BMS instruments are calibrated to ensure traceability to the World Radiometric Reference in compliance with ISO/IEC 17025 accreditation requirements. The BMS data sets are quality-controlled and made publicly available through the Measurement and Instrumentation Data Center website. The NSRDB is the most accessed public database of solar irradiance and associated weather parameters for use in energy modeling. It supports SETO's goals of reducing barriers to high penetrations of solar technologies by providing easy access to high-quality, foundational data essential for innovative product development and downstream modeling through the NSRDB website. Data are currently available for the contiguous United States and beyond for 20 years covering 1998-2017. The Physical Solar Model (PSM) that underpins the current NSRDB data sets is a unique physics-based model that has been developed at NREL and has opened the door to the use of next-generation satellite data sets for solar resource assessment and forecasting. Through the American Society for Testing Materials (ASTM) International and other international standards organizations, NREL continues to provide leadership in the development of standards that are relevant to the measurement and modeling of solar radiation for solar energy applications. Standards developed cover the calibration method of pyrheliometers (direct normal irradiance measurements), pyranometers (global horizontal irradiance measurements), spectroradiometers, ultraviolet radiometers, correct field deployment of these instruments, spectral distribution reference tables for photovoltaic modeling, and transfer of indoor calibrations. Further, NREL leads the International Energy Agency (IEA) Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme Task 16: Subtask 1, which focuses on the evaluation of current and emerging resource assessment methodologies. NREL and the IEA updated the Best Practices Handbook for the Collection and Use of Solar Resource Data for Solar Energy Applications, which is widely used by the solar industry.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Informing New Concepts for UAS and Autonomous System Safety Management using Disaster Management and First Responder Scenarios

As emerging flight operations become more prevalent and increasingly automated and distributed, the capabilities for managing safety of vehicles and operations will also need to evolve. To address this challenge, the National Academies has envisioned an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) capability for a wide range of aviation operations including current commercial operations as well as new entrants envisioned with advanced air mobility (AAM). The suite of IASMS services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs) would be implemented in a federated approach and would address trends as well as individual operations. Through predictive modeling and data analysis, IASMS is envisioned to identify arising risks so that they can be mitigated, in-time, before a safety incident occurs. IASMS and its requisite set of SFCs must leverage a wide range of information to perform. To better understand these new needs, FSF worked with the aviation and humanitarian communities to develop and validate scenarios that include traditional aviation operations and UAS operations intermingled as they are deployed for disaster management and first responder (DMFR) situations. The three scenarios developed include: • Post Natural disaster response, such as a hurricane, involving multiple parties utilizing traditional aviation and UAS to support rescue operations, surveil damage, and locate survivors needing assistance. • Wildfire fighting in remote locations with traditional aircraft for transport and fire-retardant delivery combined with UAS for surveillance of fire locations as well as to track individual firefighter locations. • Medical Operations and AAM in Urban Environments including passenger-carrying helicopters and AAM vehicles, medical missions (such as transport of radio-pharmaceuticals), and other UAS delivery operations (such as the delivery of defibrillators). Each scenario was developed and validated by representatives with expertise in humanitarian operations, urban and rural emergency response, air traffic management, UAS operations, and traditional flight operations. The scenario definitions address roles and responsibilities of individual actors, the appropriate utilization of UAS, and the actions taken by those actors to appropriately manage risks associated with the mission and environment. The risks to aviation traffic and to people on the ground explored included potential risks arising from incompatibilities in calculating reference altitudes (eg, differing uses of AGL, MSL, barometric, or GPS-derived values), loss of command and control (C2) communications, rapid changes in weather and winds, and physical interference. For each risk, IASMS SFCs were postulated in the context of monitoring services, risk assessment capabilities, and identifying appropriate mitigation strategies. The identified SFC capabilities were envisioned from known services postulated for IASMS and for UTM. For these unique environments, IASMS SFCs are needed to address conditions such as hazardous payloads, micro-climates and urban canyons, and the need to keep uninvolved air traffic out of the area where DMFR operations are being conducted. The second phase of analysis focused on inferring the specific information needs and the SFCs for IASMS, utilizing a structure of 16 information classes to organize requirements. For each of the risks identified in the workshops, it was postulated what data sources would be necessary to monitor critical aspects of the risk (eg, surrounding air traffic, ground population, terrain, etc). to be directly measured as well as data that would be derived, which implies additional SFCs for different actors to understand what information would likely be exchanged between parties. For an IASMS to be effective, additional research is needed to develop the advanced algorithms that can address the increasingly autonomous and complex operations in differing environments and to develop means of identifying unknown risks. Looking at these scenarios highlighted a number of research issues. These include the ability to quickly "cordon off" airspace thru temporary flight restrictions (TFRs) or other means, developing clear definitions to enable automation-based algorithms for prioritizing operations, defining airspace density metrics, standardization of altitude reporting, and establishing a basis for safety data metrics definition and collection. This paper seeks to outline the development of an IASMS in the context of the DMFR scenarios and resulting demonstrations. Utilizing this contextual approach, NASA will generate recommendations for an assured safety framework for AAM operations that enables AAM operations to safely access the NAS.

In Time Aviation Safety Management System↗

Electric Plasma Arc-Lamp Combustor Liner Durability Test System Developed

Silicon carbide matrix composites are candidate materials for high-temperature combustor liners. Because through-the-thickness thermal gradients are the primary cause of stress on combustor liners, a unique test facility was developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field to simulate in-service pure thermal stress distributions in fiber reinforced silicon carbide cylinders. It was developed initially under Phase II of the High- Speed Research Program. This test stand can accommodate 8-in.-long test cylinders that have outer diameters of 4 in. and a wall thickness of about 0.08 to 0.12 in. One cylinder at a time is loaded vertically into the test stand. Water-cooled plates enclose the open ends of the cylinder and provide cooling. Load plates on the exterior side of the water-cooled plates provide support and compression loads. To evaluate a combustor liner material s potential performance, researchers induce thermal gradients with an axisymmetric, direct-current, electric arc within the cylinder while refrigerated air at a rate of 1.5 lb/sec impinges on the outside surface of the cylinder. The achievable through-the-thickness thermal gradient is predicted to be in excess of 200 C. The 8-in. long, 0.5-in.-diameter plasma arc emits full spectrum visible light; radiant intensity exceeds 300 Watts per square centimeters to produce temperatures in excess of 1500 C on materials with emissivity near unity. Because the system does not rely upon the combustion of fuels to achieve the related thermal conditions, ancillary environmental reactions with the sample are eliminated. The system incorporates a standard mechanical test frame, which can impose constant as well cyclical axial stresses up to 2200 lb upon the test piece. Silicon-carbide-fiber reinforced silicon carbide matrix composite cylinders were instrumented with thin-film thermocouples to obtain through-the-thickness thermal flux measurements. Inside wall temperatures reached 1200 C with only 250 A of current. One of the special features of this configuration is the creation of hoop stress states within the cylinder, which up this point have not been obtainable in planar coupon tests. This facility will allow various operational modes, including accelerated tests of thermal transients simulating the effects of repeated engine ignition as well as prescribed thermal and mechanical histories to simulate various duty cycle profiles. Tests can now be performed on thermal-barrier-coated metallic liners and ceramic composite liners that require a combination of high heat flux and controlled mechanical stresses.

Goldsby, Jon C.↗

Ma'adim Vallis Estuarine Delta in Elysium Basin and Its Relevance as a Landing Site for Exobiology Exploration on Mars

The debouche of Ma'adim Vallis in the Elysium Basin generated a transitional transported sediment structure, which planimetric shape is controlled by the enclosing topography of a deep reentrant gulf of the Basin into the highland. We defined it as an estuarine delta. The location and the importance of this estuarine delta is supported by the theoretical model of graded profile constructed for Ma'adim Vallis, and by two approaches: (i) the reconstruction of Ma'adim Vallis downstream course from Gusev to Elysium Basin, and (ii) the survey of the sediment deposit in the alleged estuary. The longitudinal graded profile of Ma'adim Vallis finds its base-level in the Elysium Basin, at a about 1000 m elevation, which is in agreement with the observed Basin shoreline. This model is supported by observational evidence of flow between the northern rim of Gusev crater, and the Elysium Basin shoreline. This downstream course of Ma'adim Vallis can be divided into three hydrogeologic regions. into three hydrogeologic regions. (a) The first region is a flooded plain (Zephiria Mensae), consisting in chaotic terrain formed by highland rocks, and disintegrated lava of the western flank of Apollinaris. Morphologic indicators of the flood process are: (1) the sediment deposit over the Gusev crater northern rim that reflects the overspilling of the crater-lake water through a 40-km wide gap provided by an ancient impact crater, (2) the tear-drop shaped feature on the northeastern flank of Apollinaris Patera, and (3) the chaotic terrain that suggest the emergence of ground water generated by the seepage of the crater lake through high-permeable broken rampart material. This underground water circulation sustained by the hydrostatic pressure of the crater-lake has likely generated a hydrothermal system in the volcanic environment of Apollinaris Patera. The stratigraphy of the flooded area is identified as Hesperian age, with occurrences of Noachian hilly individual features, and as Amazonian flooded plain and chaotic material, (b) The second region is located on the western flank of Apollinaris Patera. It is surrounded by relics of deep valleys that suggest a former downstream course of Ma'adim Vallis. The geologic setting of this region (Lucus Planum) is interpreted to be an Amazonian formation composed by the middle and lower members of the Medusae Formation., c) The third region corresponds to the convergence of the west and east branches of Ma'adirn Vallis into a deep re-entrant wide gulf that penetrates about 100 km into the highland. This topographic depression is delineated by the 1000 in elevation contour. This gulf has formed an estuarine configuration centered at 3S/190W within the Elysium Basin. This configuration has favored the formation of a estuarine sedimentary delta, because of topographically controlled lateral migration. This estuarine structure is strongly dominated by the incoming supply of Ma'adim Vallis fluvial sediment extracted from Zephiria Mensae and Lucus Planum. The obtuse-angle geometry of the estuary increases the sedimentation rate, which is higher than in the course of the channel. The sediment deposition process is governed by the estuarine water circulation. The inflowing loaded fluvial water enters the estuary as a bottom current, and mixes with the relatively less-loaded water of the receiving basin. When they mixed. the inflowing fluvial material, and the landward basin circulating water generate an accumulation of highly-diversified estuarine deposit stratification. This accumulation of material is mostly centered in the transitional zone of the delta. The sediment trapping efficiency of the estuary is function of the energy balance between the inflowing fluvial water, and the ingoing basin current. The submergence of the delta by the rising of the water-level increases the estuary water-depth, and consequently the sediment entrapment is favored. The locus of sediment accumulation moves landward in the zone of inflowing fluvial water. This results in the rising of the channel base-level, thus in the increase of the length of the longitudinal graded-profile. The sediment deposit facies of the zone A shows a generally smooth surface. The longitudinal deposit is bordered by alluvial terraces that reflect the variations of the channel level. The waning of the Elysium Basin caused the erosion of the Basin estuarine zone by small channels, this episode being characterized by dissected tear-drop shaped mesa-like morphologies in the delta. Our estuarine delta model predicts a lithostratigraphic depositional sequence associated with the water submergence and the transgression of Elysium Basin. The thickness of the estuarine sediment corresponds to the Elysium Basin levels changes relatively to the bed floor of the estuary, The depositional sequence of Ma'adim Vallis are described: (1) a pro-current filled region (A), where fluvial are longitudinally accumulated by the inflowing water, (2) inverse current from Elysium Basin (B), where fluvial and lacustrine sediments are accumulated, and (3) zone of current equilibrium (C), where the sediments are distributed as a shoreline at the boundary of the estuarine delta. The estuary sedimentology dynamics collects and keeps the record of the geologic unit material crossed by Ma'adim Vallis, and those of the lakebed deposit of Elysium Basin. The predicted mixed stratigraphic sequence from fluvial and lacustrine sediment makes this site an exceptional environment to concentrate potential multi-origin biologic records. We envision four possible strategies to explore this sedimentologic record: (1) longitudinal surface and subsurface traverses in region A to investigate outcrop levees, (2) exploration of the mesa walls in region B, (3) deep drilling hole lodging of the sequential deposits in the zones A and B, and (4) surface and subsurface exploration of the shoreline delta. The expected results for each of these strategies are: (1) in the deepest layers of region A are predicted frequent and abundant coarse material, sandy lenses lamination grading downward from sand to cobbles. Volcanic debris from the Noachian crustal Plateau unit material, hydrothermal altered rocks, carbonates, Hesperian and possibly Amazonian volcanic material, from Apollinaris Patera, altered rocks and carbonates from Zephiria Mensae are expected. As a favorable environment for inception of life, possible biological records are expected in transported rock, (2) At the surface, and subsurface (<=100 m), large deposits sandy to silted material from Elysium paleolake basin mixed with fine-grained sediments from Ma'adim Vallis are expected mostly in the upstream part of region B, (3) on the shoreline of the estuarine delta, abundant fine material from Elysium paleolake basin (evaporites, carbonates), mostly Amazonian in age are expected. The Ma'adini estuary is a favorable landing site for all the above mentioned science aspects, and .for its location. The site lies near the equator, which is favorable for the rover solar power supply, and at 1000m elevation, which is a favorable configuration for the descent system braking. Another advantage is the extent of the area of high scientific interest (33,000 sq km), which provides a good ellipse, and potential long study traverses.

Grin, E. A.↗

Foundations of Molecular 'Isotomics'

The naturally occurring rare isotopes are versions of common elements, such as hydrogen, carbon and oxygen, that contain a larger than usual number of neutrons in their atomic nuclei and therefore are higher in mass than the common atoms of that element. Isotopes exist for most elements and are found in most natural and synthetic materials, but are uneven in their distribution because chemical and physical processes are isotope-selective (e.g., a chemical reaction may proceed more rapidly for one isotope than for another). For this reason, abundances of isotopes in a material of interest can provide a record, or ‘signature’ of various features of that material’s origin and history. These signatures have been used in the geo, life, chemical and physical sciences in a wide variety of ways over close to 8 decades. However, many such applications struggle to reach unique interpretations of isotopic data because multiple factors combine to control a given sample’s overall isotopic content. That is, the factors controlling isotopic content are too numerous and complex to fully constrain from a simple measurement of a material’s isotope abundances. However, the distribution of isotopes within materials, at molecular scales potentially provides a vastly larger number and diversity of constraints on the chemical and physical processes that comprise a material’s history. The rare isotopes may be concentrated into one atomic position in a molecule relative to another, some proportion of molecules in a sample may contain two or more rare isotopes, and those multiply-isotope-substituted forms of molecules may also have uneven distributions of those isotopes across individual atomic sites. For these reasons, even small, seemingly simple molecules, such as sugars, amino acids or drug compounds, actually exist in a vast number of isotopically unique forms (often millions or more), and each one of those forms is in some sense an independent ‘vote’ on that sample’s history. This project has focused on opening this rich archive of information by enabling the creation of routinely and widely applicable ways of measuring and interpreting isotopic structures of molecules. This work has included the development of core technologies and analytical methods, advancing fundamental understanding of the physical and chemical properties of isotopic versions of molecules, and conducting proof of concept studies of illustrative geochemical, cosmochemical and forensic problems in order to show how these technologies, methods and principles come together to solve problems in new ways. A key to the success of this project was the adaptation of ‘Fourier transform mass spectrometry’ (FTMS) to the task of precisely measuring proportions of the rare, naturally occurring isotopic forms of molecules. FTMS is a highly specialized form of mass spectrometry that traps ions within magnetic or electrostatic cavities and, effectively, ‘listens’ (through registering of subtle electrical signals) to the harmonic signals they make while rapidly orbiting within those cavities. These signals have periods that are a function of their mass and strength (or ‘loudness’) that is proportional to their abundances. Thus, these signals constrain relative amounts of molecules that differ in their mass due to various isotopic substitutions. This technology has been essential to the identification of organic molecules in the life, chemical and environmental sciences for over 4 decades, but generally has lacked the control, stability and precision to meaningfully measure rare isotope forms of molecules. This project’s most fundamental contribution has been to modify FTMS, both in terms of hardware and methods, to enable such measurements. The raw data of molecular isotopic structure is tremendously voluminous and complex, so another important activity of this project has been developing the theoretical and data-science tools needed to interpret the data generated by this new form of isotopic measurement. A particularly challenging part of this task has been predicting molecular isotopic structure, as only through the comparison of measurements with predictions can we make progress on hypothesis driven research questions. We have attacked this this prediction task through a combination of first-principles chemical-physics models of the effects of isotope substitution on molecule properties and data-science models that permit us to generalize that chemical physics to cases that have not yet been studied by detailed chemical physics theory. The proof of concept applications we have pursued over the course of this study include biological reactions of amino acids and other biomolecules, non-biological synthesis of organic molecules in extra-terrestrial settings such as meteorites, petroleum geoscience questions concerning the origin and evolution of natural gas, oil and kerogen compounds, and forensic questions such as the sourcing of chemical weapons. The successes of these applications have laid the groundwork for the next phase of this field’s development, which will include larger scale and more ambitious studies of molecular isotopic structure as a means of diagnosing human diseases, such as cancer, and reconstructing detailed interpretations of the origin and evolution of organic molecules in modern and geological environments.

Cesar, Jaime↗

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Microsimulation of Energy and Flow Effects from Optimal Automated Driving in Mixed Traffic

In this paper we study the energy and traffic impact of a proposed Anticipative Cruise Controller in a PTV VISSIM microsimulation environment. We dissect our controller into two parts: 1. the unconnected mode, active when following a human-driven vehicle, and 2. the connected mode, active when following another automated vehicle equipped with connectivity. Probabilistic constraints balance safety considerations with inter-vehicle compactness, and vehicle constraints for acceleration capabilities are expressed through the use of powertrain maps. Emergent highway traffic scenarios are then modeled using time headway distributions from empirical traffic data. To study the impact of automation over a range of demands of free-flow to stop-and-go, we vary vehicle flux from low to high and vary automated vehicle penetration from low to high. When examining all-human driving scenarios, network capacity failed to meet demand in high-volume scenarios, such as rush-hour traffic. We further find that with connected automated vehicles introduced, network capacity was improved to support the high-volume scenarios. Finally, we examine energy efficiencies of the fleet for conventional, electric, and hybrid vehicles. We find that automated vehicles perform at a 10%-20% higher energy efficiency over human drivers when considering conventional powertrains, and find that automated vehicles perform at a 3%-9% higher energy efficiency over human drivers when considering electric and hybrid powertrains. Due to secondary effects of smoothing traffic flow and reducing unnecessary braking, energy benefits also apply to human-driven vehicles that interact with automated ones. Such simulated humans were found to drive up to 10% more energy-efficiently than they did in the baseline all-human scenario.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Chapter 19B - Antenna Radiation Patterns

Modern civil and military aircraft are equipped with a variety of communication devices, radio navigation equipment, and air traffic control systems. For all of these devices appropriate antennas must be available to transmit and receive the signals. As a result, as many as 30 antennas, and sometimes even more, are mounted around today's aircraft. For this reason, it is necessary to know the capabilities of the receiving/transmitting equipment on board. These capabilities are driven by the antenna characteristics. Therefore, coverage, shading, and beam pointing pattern data are necessary for optimum electronic coverage. The aircraft antenna has to convert the available power density of the electromagnetic field to an electric voltage at its connector. This voltage level must be sufficiently high to operate the connected equipment. The reciprocity principle states that it makes no difference if the antenna is receiving or transmitting. For the certification of the aircraft antennas it must be proven that the antennas are at least generating the minimum receiver input voltage which is required for each radio service. The prime condition is, of course, that the specified field power densities of the different radio navigation and communication services are available. An important property of a radio frequency link is the electro-magnetic field intensity at every point in space for a given output power of the antenna. As the propagation of radio frequency waves in free space is well known, the spatial distribution of the field intensity needs only be measured at one spatial sphere around the antenna. The information is usually given as distributions along the circumference of flat sections through this sphere: each of these is called an ARP. Several ARPs are usually required to describe the complete spatial antenna pattern of an antenna. In addition to mathematical modeling, measurements on sub-scale models, and static measurements on full size models or aircraft on the ground, dynamic measurements on aircraft in flight play the most important role in the aircraft antenna testing and certification. [19B-1] The shape of an ARP, for one given frequency, is determined by the shape of the antenna and the shape and material of the surface it is mounted on. As the directly transmitted waves interfere with waves reflected by the aircraft skin with its complex geometry, and the surface material parameters are only roughly known, it is not possible to predict the ARP with the required accuracy. In ground measurements the earth's surface also acts as a reflector thereby causing the ground ARP to be different from the in-flight ARP. As the in-flight ARP is the ARP we are actually interested in it becomes clear that it is necessary to conduct in-flight ARP measurements. The Flight Test Engineer must be aware of the needs of the specialists who are establishing the test program for measuring antenna patterns and radar cross sections. These tests will require special test equipment and dedicated flights to obtain the data that they require. This Section provides an introduction to the principles of determining antenna patterns and the flight techniques for determining both antenna patterns and radar cross section. Reference 19B-1 provides detailed information.

Helmut Bothe↗

Synchronous Machine Governor Upgrade

Conventional generation sources play a critical role in the stability and reliability of the electrical grid, particularly as we transition towards more renewable energy sources. To understand and accurately emulate their behavior for optimizing grid operations and ensuring seamless integration with renewable technologies, it is essential to better emulate the grid- and plant-level impacts of conventional generation sources, such as natural gas (NG) driven heat recovery steam generators (HRSGs) and combustion turbines (CTs). Therefore, a governor model is developed in a programmable logic controller (PLC) to investigate the performance of the conventional generator under various dynamic operating conditions and to identify the impact on grid stability in a controlled environment. The governor model aims to enable the hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) based emulation of these conventional generation sources using the existing 2 MVA synchronous machine/generator that is driven by a flexible 2.5 MW variable speed drive. This setup will allow us to replicate the dynamic characteristics and response behaviors of NG-driven HRSGs and CTs. The controls for the emulated conventional plants follow the industry standard and are adjustable, ensuring they accurately reflect the operational capabilities and limitations of real-world systems. These controls include load-following capabilities, ramp rates, startup and shutdown sequences, and emissions characteristics. By incorporating these adjustable controls, we aim to capture the nuanced impacts of conventional generation, such as their ability to provide ancillary services like frequency regulation, voltage support, and spinning reserve. In this report, we simulate two types of dynamic operations: grid-connected and islanding. For each dynamic operation, representative starting sequences are tested, including turbine purge, ignition, speed ramping up, generator excitation and synchronizing, and breaker close. The HIL based tests provides insights for field deployment, specifically the high-fidelity governor model provides results to predict the potential stability and reliability risk and suggest possible integration measures (e.g., generation and load balancing, tuning of governor control parameters). Ultimately, this enhanced emulation capability will be integrated into our Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES), enabling us to conduct comprehensive studies on the interactions between conventional and renewable energy sources. By better understanding these interactions, we can develop strategies to optimize the overall performance and reliability of the grid. This will support the deployment of advanced grid management techniques, such as demand response, grid-forming inverters, and energy storage systems. The main contributions are summarized as follows: (1) This report introduces a PLC-based governor model for gas turbines. This model accurately simulates the dynamic behavior of conventional generation sources under various operational scenarios; (2) The model is integrated with an HIL testbed that includes a 2.5 MW variable speed drive and a 2 MVA synchronous machine. This setup enables realistic, real-time emulation of conventional power plants, particularly NG driven HRSGs and CTs; (3) The developed model is adaptable to various gas turbine configurations and allows for precise control over parameters such as MW ramp rates. This flexibility makes it a valuable tool for future research and industry collaboration; and (4) By incorporating the model into the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems, the report lays the groundwork for future studies on interactions between conventional and renewable energy sources, enhancing the ability to develop advanced grid management strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

C-FOG: Life of Coastal Fog

C-FOG is a comprehensive bi-national project dealing with the formation, persistence, and dissipation (life cycle) of fog in coastal areas (coastal fog) controlled by land, marine, and atmospheric processes. Given its inherent complexity, coastal-fog literature has mainly focused on case studies, and there is a continuing need for research that integrates across processes (e.g., air–sea–land interactions, environmental flow, aerosol transport, and chemistry), dynamics (two-phase flow and turbulence), microphysics (nucleation, droplet characterization), and thermodynamics (heat transfer and phase changes) through field observations and modeling. Central to C-FOG was a field campaign in eastern Canada from 1 September to 8 October 2018, covering four land sites in Newfoundland and Nova Scotia and an adjacent coastal strip transected by the Research Vessel Hugh R. Sharp . An array of in situ, path-integrating, and remote sensing instruments gathered data across a swath of space–time scales relevant to fog life cycle. Satellite and reanalysis products, routine meteorological observations, numerical weather prediction model (WRF and COAMPS) outputs, large-eddy simulations, and phenomenological modeling underpin the interpretation of field observations in a multiscale and multiplatform framework that helps identify and remedy numerical model deficiencies. An overview of the C-FOG field campaign and some preliminary analysis/findings are presented in this paper.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Predictive Modeling in Plasma Reactor and Process Design

Research continues toward the improvement and increased understanding of high-density plasma tools. Such reactor systems are lauded for their independent control of ion flux and energy enabling high etch rates with low ion damage and for their improved ion velocity anisotropy resulting from thin collisionless sheaths and low neutral pressures. Still, with the transition to 300 mm processing, achieving etch uniformity and high etch rates concurrently may be a formidable task for such large diameter wafers for which computational modeling can play an important role in successful reactor and process design. The inductively coupled plasma (ICP) reactor is the focus of the present investigation. The present work attempts to understand the fundamental physical phenomena of such systems through computational modeling. Simulations will be presented using both computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques and the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method for argon and chlorine discharges. ICP reactors generally operate at pressures on the order of 1 to 10 mTorr. At such low pressures, rarefaction can be significant to the degree that the constitutive relations used in typical CFD techniques become invalid and a particle simulation must be employed. This work will assess the extent to which CFD can be applied and evaluate the degree to which accuracy is lost in prediction of the phenomenon of interest; i.e., etch rate. If the CFD approach is found reasonably accurate and bench-marked with DSMC and experimental results, it has the potential to serve as a design tool due to the rapid time relative to DSMC. The continuum CFD simulation solves the governing equations for plasma flow using a finite difference technique with an implicit Gauss-Seidel Line Relaxation method for time marching toward a converged solution. The equation set consists of mass conservation for each species, separate energy equations for the electrons and heavy species, and momentum equations for the gas. The sheath is modeled by imposing the Bohm velocity to the ions near the walls. The DSMC method simulates each constituent of the gas as a separate species which would be analogous in CFD to employing separate species mass, momentum, and energy equations. All particles including electrons are moved and allowed to collide with one another with the stipulation that the electrons remain tied to the ions consistent with the concept of ambipolar diffusion. The velocities of the electrons are allowed to be modified during collisions and are not confined to a Maxwellian distribution. These benefits come at a price in terms of computational time and memory. The DSMC and CFD are made as consistent as possible by using similar chemistry and power deposition models. Although the comparison of CFD and DSMC is interesting, the main goal of this work is the increased understanding of high-density plasma flowfields that can then direct improvements in both techniques. This work is unique in the level of the physical models employed in both the DSMC and CFD for high-density plasma reactor applications. For example, the electrons are simulated in the present DSMC work which has not been done before for low temperature plasma processing problems. In the CFD approach, for the first time, the charged particle transport (discharge physics) has been self-consistently coupled to the gas flow and heat transfer.

Hash, D. B.↗

Progress on Optimizing Wind Farms and Rotor Designs Using Adjoints

Modern wind plants are increasingly tasked with multiple performance objectives. In addition to designing plants that maximize power output and minimize the levelized cost of energy (LCOE), the design and operation of wind plants is increasingly influenced by challenges regarding grid integration of variable generation renewables. This places a growing emphasis on making wind plants more controllable and predictable. WindSE is a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) model designed around analytical gradient and adjoint methods, with the ability to capture terrain-induced effects, as shown in Figure 1. The recent addition of an unsteady solver with an actuator line method (ALM) and ongoing work to enable massively parallel optimizations gives it a unique niche to explore coupled plant-level controls and design problems. This code is an open source python package built on the FEniCS framework that utilizes fast, parallel PETSc solvers to model fluid flow throughout wind-farm scale domains. Two recent studies performed using WindSE demonstrate the capability to optimize under a wide variety of flow conditions and objective functions. In the first, we present an optimization focused on modifying the layout of a wind farm with a fixed number of turbines for maximum total power output [1]. This study highlights the ability to quickly perform simulations using the steady Navier-Stokes solver combined with rotors represented as actuator disks while also stressing the importance of capturing terrain-induced effects. Gradient-based optimization using the RANS equations is viable due to the inclusion of efficiently computed adjoint derivatives. We interpret the physical results of the optimal layout and also discuss the computational cost of scaling to larger problems. In the second study, we present the capabilities of the unsteady Navier-Stokes solver, where rotor-blade profiles represented by actuator lines are optimized to enhance wake steering effects and overall power production [2]. We quantify the wind plant performance gains obtained from this type of simultaneous control co-design optimization as compared to optimizing the blade design and yaw independently. Figure 2 shows the differences between a baseline two-turbine system and an optimized system where we fine-tune the blade chord profile. Results and challenges from each study are quickly summarized and used to motivate the current development efforts within WindSE. Current and future work is focused on enabling higher-resolution studies with more degrees of freedom through parallelization of both the simulation and optimization algorithms. We present benchmarking results to show that WindSE performs well in both weak- and strong-scaling tests and further demonstrate that the optimizer obtains the same convergence rates in both shared- and distributed-memory environments. Using larger wind farms, we can study deep-array effects within an optimization context, allowing the use of objective functions that have been previously unstudied. As an example, we present ongoing work on a blockage metric which characterizes the loss of available kinetic energy due to wake effects from multiple upstream turbines.

adjoint optimization↗

ActiveBAS: A Low-cost, Scalable Control Solution for Grid-Interactive Small and Medium Sized Commercial Buildings

This project aims to develop and enhance a low-cost, highly scalable control solution for Small and Medium-Sized Commercial Buildings (SMCB), assess the business potential at multiple sites, and perform commercialization efforts. The technology can be applied to any buildings served by multiple units, with the benefits being greatest for open-spaced buildings, such as banks, retail stores, restaurants, and factories. This project aims to develop an affordable control solution for: 1) SMCB grid responsiveness, 2) reduction of GHG by changing unit operations, 3) greater reduction in utility costs, and 4) rapid adoption in the marketplace. The proposed technology will be built on a previously developed and demonstrated MPC solution. The minimal sensor requirement and less need of control expertise are the unique feature of the algorithm that leads to low capital and maintenance costs, and short installation and implementation time. These attributes contribute to low capital and maintenance costs, as well as a short installation and implementation time. However, these advantages come with a trade-off: increased difficulties and unreliability when applying traditional modeling and MPC control approaches due to limited information. This final report describes the modeling approaches developed and tested to overcome these challenges. It begins by outlining the modeling challenge posed by minimal sensor requirements, then delves into the proposed modeling approaches, which primarily involve system identification. Finally, preliminary test results for a simulation case study are presented.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗