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Data Mining for Understanding and Improving Decision-making Affecting Ground Delay Programs

The continuous growth in the demand for air transportation results in an imbalance between airspace capacity and traffic demand. The airspace capacity of a region depends on the ability of the system to maintain safe separation between aircraft in the region. In addition to growing demand, the airspace capacity is severely limited by convective weather. During such conditions, traffic managers at the FAA's Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) and dispatchers at various Airlines' Operations Center (AOC) collaborate to mitigate the demand-capacity imbalance caused by weather. The end result is the implementation of a set of Traffic Flow Management (TFM) initiatives such as ground delay programs, reroute advisories, flow metering, and ground stops. Data Mining is the automated process of analyzing large sets of data and then extracting patterns in the data. Data mining tools are capable of predicting behaviors and future trends, allowing an organization to benefit from past experience in making knowledge-driven decisions.

Weather↗

Data Mining for Understanding and Impriving Decision-Making Affecting Ground Delay Programs

The continuous growth in the demand for air transportation results in an imbalance between airspace capacity and traffic demand. The airspace capacity of a region depends on the ability of the system to maintain safe separation between aircraft in the region. In addition to growing demand, the airspace capacity is severely limited by convective weather. During such conditions, traffic managers at the FAA's Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) and dispatchers at various Airlines' Operations Center (AOC) collaborate to mitigate the demand-capacity imbalance caused by weather. The end result is the implementation of a set of Traffic Flow Management (TFM) initiatives such as ground delay programs, reroute advisories, flow metering, and ground stops. Data Mining is the automated process of analyzing large sets of data and then extracting patterns in the data. Data mining tools are capable of predicting behaviors and future trends, allowing an organization to benefit from past experience in making knowledge-driven decisions. The work reported in this paper is focused on ground delay programs. Data mining algorithms have the potential to develop associations between weather patterns and the corresponding ground delay program responses. If successful, they can be used to improve and standardize TFM decision resulting in better predictability of traffic flows on days with reliable weather forecasts. The approach here seeks to develop a set of data mining and machine learning models and apply them to historical archives of weather observations and forecasts and TFM initiatives to determine the extent to which the theory can predict and explain the observed traffic flow behaviors.

data mining↗

Application of a patched-grid algorithm to the F/A-18 forebody-leading-edge extension configuration

A patched-grid algorithm for the analysis of complex configurations with an implicit, upwind-biased Navier-Stokes solver is presented. Results from both a spatial-flux and a time-flux conservation approach to patching across zonal boundaries are presented. A generalized coordinate transformation with a biquadratic geometric element is used at the zonal interface in order to treat highly stretched viscous grids and arbitrarily shaped zonal boundaries. Applications are made to the F/A-18 forebody-Ieading-edge extension configuration at subsonic, high-alpha conditions. Computed surface flow patterns compare well with ground-based and flight-test results; the large effect of Reynolds number on the forebody flowfield is shown.

Leading edge extension↗

Optically Induced Picosecond Lattice Compression in the Dielectric Component of a Strongly Coupled Ferroelectric/Dielectric Superlattice

Above-bandgap femtosecond optical excitation of a ferroelectric/dielectric BaTiO 3 /CaTiO 3 superlattice leads to structural responses that are a consequence of the screening of the strong electrostatic coupling between the component layers. Time-resolved X-ray free-electron laser diffraction shows that the structural response to optical excitation includes a net lattice expansion of the superlattice consistent with depolarization-field screening driven by the photoexcited charge carriers. The depolarization-field-screening-driven expansion is separate from a photoacoustic pulse launched from the bottom electrode on which the superlattice is epitaxially grown. The distribution of diffracted intensity of superlattice X-ray reflections indicates that the depolarization-field-screening-induced strain includes a photoinduced expansion in the ferroelectric BaTiO 3 and a contraction in CaTiO 3 . The magnitude of expansion in BaTiO 3 layers is larger than the contraction in CaTiO 3 . The difference in the magnitude of depolarization-field-screening-driven strain in the BaTiO 3 and CaTiO 3 components can arise from the contribution of the oxygen octahedral rotation patterns at the BaTiO 3 /CaTiO 3 interfaces to the polarization of CaTiO 3 . The depolarization-field-screening-driven polarization reduction in the CaTiO 3 layers points to a new direction for the manipulation of polarization in the component layers of a strongly coupled ferroelectric/dielectric superlattice.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Satellite Gravity Drilling the Earth

Analysis of satellite-measured gravity and topography can provide crust-to-core mass variation models for new insi@t on the geologic evolution of the Earth. The internal structure of the Earth is mostly constrained by seismic observations and geochemical considerations. We suggest that these constraints may be augmented by gravity drilling that interprets satellite altitude free-air gravity observations for boundary undulations of the internal density layers related to mass flow. The approach involves separating the free-air anomalies into terrain-correlated and -decorrelated components based on the correlation spectrum between the anomalies and the gravity effects of the terrain. The terrain-decorrelated gravity anomalies are largely devoid of the long wavelength interfering effects of the terrain gravity and thus provide enhanced constraints for modeling mass variations of the mantle and core. For the Earth, subcrustal interpretations of the terrain-decorrelated anomalies are constrained by radially stratified densities inferred from seismic observations. These anomalies, with frequencies that clearly decrease as the density contrasts deepen, facilitate mapping mass flow patterns related to the thermodynamic state and evolution of the Earth's interior.

vonFrese, R. R. B.↗

A New Retrieval Algorithm for OMI NO2: Tropospheric Results and Comparisons with Measurements and Models

Nitrogen oxides (NOx =NO+NO2) are important atmospheric trace constituents that impact tropospheric air pollution chemistry and air quality. We have developed a new NASA algorithm for the retrieval of stratospheric and tropospheric NO2 vertical column densities using measurements from the nadir-viewing Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA's Aura satellite. The new products rely on an improved approach to stratospheric NO2 column estimation and stratosphere-troposphere separation and a new monthly NO2 climatology based on the NASA Global Modeling Initiative chemistry-transport model. The retrieval does not rely on daily model profiles, minimizing the influence of a priori information. We evaluate the retrieved tropospheric NO2 columns using surface in situ (e.g., AQS/EPA), ground-based (e.g., DOAS), and airborne measurements (e.g., DISCOVER-AQ). The new, improved OMI tropospheric NO2 product is available at high spatial resolution for the years 200S-present. We believe that this product is valuable for the evaluation of chemistry-transport models, examining the spatial and temporal patterns of NOx emissions, constraining top-down NOx inventories, and for the estimation of NOx lifetimes.

Swartz, W. H.↗

Lunar Magnetic Field Models From Lunar Prospector and SELENE/Kaguya Along-Track Magnetic Field Gradients

We use L1-norm model regularization of |Br| component at the surface on magnetic monopoles bases and along-track magnetic field differences alone (without vector observations) to derive high quality global magnetic field models at the surface of the Moon. The practical advantages to this strategy are the following: monopoles are more stable at closer spacing in comparison to dipoles, improving spatial resolution; L1-norm model regularization leads to sparse models which may be appropriate for the Moon which has regions of localized magnetic field features; and along-track differences reduce the need for ad-hoc external field noise reduction strategies. We examine also the use of Lunar Prospector and SELENE/Kaguya magnetometer data, combined and separately, and find that the Lunar Prospector along-track vector field differences lead to surface field models that require weaker regularization and, hence, result in higher spatial resolution. Significantly higher spatial resolution (wavelengths of roughly 25–30 km) and higher amplitude surface magnetic fields can be derived over localized regions of high amplitude anomalies (due to their higher signal-to-noise ratio). These high-resolution field models are also compared with the results of Surface Vector Mapping approach of Tsunakawa et al. (2015, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JE004785). Finally, the monopoles- as well as dipoles-based patterns of the Serenitatis high amplitude magnetic feature have characteristic textbook patterns of Br and Bθ component fields from a nearly vertically downwardly magnetized source region and it implies that the principal source of the anomaly was formed when the region was much closer to the north magnetic pole of the Moon.

D. Ravat↗

Spent fuel storage rack

A system for storing nuclear fuel assemblies includes a plurality of cells housed within a support structure. A first cell may house a first fuel assembly and a second cell may house a second fuel assembly. A plurality of compartments separate the plurality of cells and provide passageways for coolant entering a bottom end of the support structure to remove heat from the nuclear fuel assemblies. A first perforation transfers coolant between the first cell and one or more of the compartments, and a second perforation transfers coolant between the second cell and the one or more compartments. At least a portion of the coolant entering the bottom end of the support structure is transferred between the plurality of cells and the plurality of compartments. Two or more fuel storage racks may be stacked together in alternating fuel patterns to facilitate cooling the fuel assemblies with liquid or air.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

System and method of making an enhanced cast iron crankshaft

A method and system for manufacturing a cast iron crankshaft for a vehicle are provided. The system comprises a molding unit arranged to form a negative sand cast mold of the cast iron crankshaft. The mold comprising at least one molded cavity having a pattern with dimensions of the cast iron crankshaft. The system further comprises a feeding mechanism comprising a riser having a connector through which molten metallic material flows to the cast mold. The feeding mechanism feeds the molten metallic material at a riser connection angle in the at least one mold cavity. The riser connection angle corresponds to a connector modulus. The connector modulus is 20% greater than a cast modulus. The riser geometry corresponds to a riser modulus. The riser modulus is 20% greater than the connector modulus. The system further comprises a furnace, a cooling area, a separation unit, a controller and a power source.

Wang, Liang↗

Production-Ready CsPbBr3 Module Fabrication

The purpose of this SBIR was to work on evaluation, development, and testing of CsPbBr3 semiconductors for use in commercial gamma-ray detection. The overarching goal was to demonstrate the capability to fabricate functional detectors through resources available to H3D, Inc in pursuit of an alternative to CdZnTe for room-temperature semiconductor detectors. Throughout the project, CdZnTe crystals from Redlen were used as a control group to demonstrate whether the fabrication processes could produce reasonable results. The CdZnTe crystals were diced into roughly 6 mm x 6 mm x 4.5 mm pieces and electrodes were evaporated onto planar faces. In one case, pixels were patterned through a laser ablation method; in the other, a rudimentary pixel shadow-mask was fabricated, and the pixels were generated in the evaporation process. A 16 mm x 16 mm x 14 mm CsPbBr3 crystal was diced into four smaller crystals. These CsPbBr3 had electrodes applied in a similar way to the CdZnTe samples with a rudimentary mask used for pixels on the cathode. Tested CdZnTe pieces were found to generally function with reasonable, low-energy performance. CsPbBr3 crystals were found to be non-functional under forward bias with a large dark-current. A separate attempt, using reverse bias in a non-H3D, Inc test system, observed a dark current similar to previous observations, and some active pixels but no waveforms were observed.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

The origin of KREEP

KREEP is a lunar material having very high concentrations of incompatible elements; its name is an acronym for the incompatibles K, rare-earth elements (REE), and P. Although a few pristine (endogenously igneous) KREEPy samples were returned from the Apollo 15 and 17 sites, most KREEPy samples are polymict breccias. Most models of KREEP petrogenesis have been based on partial melting of a variety of sources. Such models fail to explain the veritable absence of variations in incompatible element patterns over the sampled portion of the moon. We have defined a KREEP component based on the average composition of Apollo 14 breccias having extremely high concentrations of incompatible elements. Normalization of accurate incompatible data for KREEPy samples from the Apollo 12, 14, 15, 16, and 17 sites to this component virtually always shows no resolvable fractionation (e.g., <10% variation in the La/Lu ratio), whereas partial melting models typically produce larger fractionations (±20–25% in La/Lu) from a factor of 2 difference in degree of partial melting. Required is a single major source that could provide KREEP to widely separated locations on the nearside of the moon. The anorthositic crust of the moon is commonly attributed to the flotation of plagioclase on a deep, moon-wide magma ocean. Fractional crystallization of this magma ocean would have produced large enrichments of incompatibles in a residual liquid. No other plausible major source of incompatibles has been proposed. We borrow the German prefix ur—meaning primeval and designate this residual liquid ‘urKREEP.’ We propose that all KREEPy rocks originated by dilution of urKREEP with crustal or mantle materials during assimilation, or zone-refining (pristine samples), or impact-induced brecciation (breccias and melt rocks). The formation of urKREEP cannot be dated precisely. Correction of breccia Rb-Sr model ages for Rb loss or gain during the early intense bombardments yields ages that cluster in the range 4.4–4.5 Gy. This implies that crystallization of the magma ocean was essentially complete at this time and is in general agreement with U-Pb evidence indicating crustal formation at 4.4 Gy. Assuming that the moon had the composition of an H-group chondrite depleted in Fe-Ni and FeS and that half the incompatibles fractionated into materials other than urKREEP, the thickness of a moon-wide urKREEP layer was <2 km. Thorium concentrations determined by gamma ray spectroscopy indicate that about 4% of the incompatibles in an H chondritic moon are now in the outermost kilometer.

Paul H. Warren↗

Digitally synthesized phased antenna for multibeam global positioning

In a system according to the proposed technique (see figure), the signal received by each element of the array antenna would be subjected to downconversion, and spread-spectrum demodulation and correlation as necessary; this processing would be performed separately from, and simultaneously with, similar processing of signals received by the other antenna elements. For the GPS implementation, following downconversion to baseband, the signals would be digitized, and all subsequent processing would be digital. In the digital process, residual carriers would be removed and each signal would be correlated with a locally generated model pseudo random-noise code, all following normal GPS procedure. As part of this procedure, accumulated values would be added in software and the resulting signals would be phase-shifted in software by the amounts necessary to synthesize the desired antenna directional gain pattern of peaks and nulls. The principal advantage of this technique over the conventional radio-frequency-combining technique is that the parallel digital baseband processing of the signals from the various antenna elements would be a relatively inexpensive and flexible means for exploiting the inherent multiple-peak/multiple-null aiming capability of a phased-array antenna. In the original intended GPS application, the peaks and nulls could be directed independently for each GPS signal being tracked by the GPS receiver. This will improve the SNR simultaneously for each GPS signal being tracked while steering multiple nulls toward sources of interference. The technique could also be applied to other code-division multiple-access communication systems.

Dunn, Charles E.↗

Computational Evaluation of Inlet Distortion on an Ejector Powered Hybrid Wing Body at Takeoff and Landing Conditions

Due to the aft, upper surface engine location on the Hybrid Wing Body (HWB) planform, there is potential to shed vorticity and separated wakes into the engine when the vehicle is operated at off-design conditions and corners of the envelope required for engine and airplane certification. CFD simulations were performed of the full-scale reference propulsion system, operating at a range of inlet flow rates, flight speeds, altitudes, angles of attack, and angles of sideslip to identify the conditions which produce the largest distortion and lowest pressure recovery. Pretest CFD was performed by NASA and Boeing, using multiple CFD codes, with various turbulence models. These data were used to make decisions regarding model integration, characterize inlet flow distortion patterns, and help define the wind tunnel test matrix. CFD was also performed post-test; when compared with test data, it was possible to make comparisons between measured model-scale and predicted full-scale distortion levels. This paper summarizes these CFD analyses.

Wind Tunnel Testing↗

Drought Relief and Reversal Over North America from 1500 to 2016

Season-to-season persistence of soil moisture drought varies across North America. Such inter-seasonal autocorrelation can have modest skill in forecasting future conditions several months in advance. Because robust instrumental observations of precipitation span less than 100 years, the temporal stability of the relationship between seasonal moisture anomalies is uncertain. The North American Seasonal Precipitation Atlas (NASPA) is a gridded network of separately reconstructed cool (December-April) and warm (May-July) season precipitation series and offers new insights on the intra-annual changes in drought for up to 2,000 years. Here, the NASPA precipitation reconstructions are rescaled to represent the long-term soil moisture balance during the cool season and three-month long atmospheric moisture during the warm season. These rescaled seasonal reconstructions are then used to quantify the frequency, magnitude, and spatial extent of cool season drought that was relieved or reversed during the following summer months. The adjusted seasonal reconstructions reproduce the general patterns of large-scale drought amelioration and termination in the instrumental record during the 20th century and are used to estimate relief and reversals for the most skillfully reconstructed past 500-years. Sub-continental to continental scale reversals of cool season drought in the following warm season have been rare, but the reconstructions display periods prior to the instrumental data of increased reversal probabilities for the Mid-Atlantic region and the US Southwest. Drought relief at the continental scale may arise in part from macroscale ocean-atmosphere processes, while the smaller scale regional reversals may reflect land-surface feedbacks and stochastic variability.

Drought↗

Toward The Development of Hailstorm Climatologies Derived From Reanalyses and Infared/Passive Microwave Satellite Imagers

Geostationary satellite imagers, such as those of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and Meteosat series, provide both historical and near-real-time observations of cloud top patterns that are commonly associated with severe convection. Environmental conditions favorable for severe weather are thought to be represented well by reanalyses. Predicting exactly where convection and costly storm hazards like hail will occur using models or satellite imagery alone, however, is extremely challenging. The multivariate combination of satellite-observed cloud patterns with reanalysis environmental parameters, linked to United States Next Generation Weather Radar- (NEXRAD-) estimated Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) using a deep neural network (DNN), enables estimation of potentially severe hail likelihood for any observed storm cell. These estimates are specifically designed to make hail likelihood distinctions based on satellite-indicated points of deep convection within environments favorable for storm development. We seek an approach that can be used to estimate climatological hailstorm frequency and risk throughout the historical satellite data record. This presentation demonstrates that statistical distributions of convective parameters from satellite and reanalysis show separation between non-severe/severe hailstorm classes for predictors including overshooting cloud top temperature and area characteristics, convective available potential energy, vertical wind shear, 500 hPa temperature, mid-level lapse rate, precipitable water, and convective inhibition. These complex, multivariate predictor relationships are exploited within a DNN to produce a hail likelihood metric with a critical success index of 0.504 and Heidke skill score of 0.403, which is exceptional among recent analogous hail studies. Furthermore, applications of the DNN to select case studies demonstrate good qualitative agreement between hail likelihood and MESH. These hail classifications are aggregated across an 11-year GOES-12/13 image database to derive a hail frequency and severity climatology, which denotes the Central Plains, the Midwest, and northwestern Mexico as being the most hail-prone regions within the domain studied. Opportunities for training and applying DNN-based hailstorm predictions to recently developed GOES-8/10/12/13/16 and Meteosat Second Generation convective storm detection and characterization climatologies over South America and South Africa, respectively, will also be presented.

Kristopher Bedka↗

Void formation in operator growth, entanglement, and unitarity

The structure of the Heisenberg evolution of operators plays a key role in explaining diverse processes in quantum many-body systems. In this paper, we discuss a new universal feature of operator evolution: an operator can develop a void during its evolution, where its nontrivial parts become separated by a region of identity operators. Such processes are present in both integrable and chaotic systems, and are required by unitarity. We show that void formation has important implications for unitarity of entanglement growth and generation of mutual information and multipartite entanglement. We study explicitly the probability distributions of void formation in a number of unitary circuit models, and conjecture that in a quantum chaotic system the distribution is given by the one we find in random unitary circuits, which we refer to as the random void distribution. We also show that random unitary circuits lead to the same pattern of entanglement growth for multiple intervals as in (1 + 1)-dimensional holographic CFTs after a global quench, which can be used to argue that the random void distribution leads to maximal entanglement growth.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Separate-Effects Tests for Studying Temperature-Gradient-Driven Cracking in UO 2 Pellets

We report a variety of normal operation and accident scenarios can generate thermal stresses large enough to cause cracking in light-water reactor (LWR) fuel pellets. Cracking of fuel pellets can lead to reduced heat removal, higher centerline temperatures, and localized stress in cladding, all of which impact fuel performance. It is important to experimentally characterize the thermal and mechanical behavior in the pellet before and after cracking to improve cracking models in fuel performance codes. However, in-reactor observation and measurement of cracking is very challenging due to the harsh environment and logistics. Recently, an experimental pellet cracking test stand was developed for separate effects testing of normal operations and accident temperature conditions, using thermal imaging to capture the pellet surface temperature for evaluation of thermal stresses and optical imaging to capture the evolution of cracking in real time. Experiments were performed using depleted uranium dioxide (UO 2 ) pellets, which are useful for collecting data valuable for development and validation of cracking models. A combination of induction and resistance heating was used to create an average temperature gradient of 236°C/cm and 193°C/cm before and after cracking respectively. Characterization of the pellets were done before as well as after cracking. The cracking patterns are somewhat different than those expected in a typical reactor because of the differences in thermal conditions and pellet microstructure. However, if the actual conditions of these experiments are reproduced in computational models, these out-of-pile tests on UO 2 pellets provide relevant data for modeling purposes.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Chemical composition of ultrafine aerosol particles in central Amazonia during the wet season

Central Amazonia serves as an ideal location to study atmospheric particle formation, since it often represents nearly natural, pre-industrial conditions but can also experience periods of anthropogenic influence due to the presence of emissions from large metropolitan areas like Manaus, Brazil. Ultrafine (sub-100 nm diameter) particles are often observed in this region, although new particle formation events seldom occur near the ground despite being readily observed in other forested regions with similar emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). This study focuses on identifying the chemical composition of ultrafine particles as a means of determining the chemical species and mechanisms that may be responsible for new particle formation and growth in the region. These measurements were performed during the wet season as part of the Observations and Modeling of the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) field campaign at a site located 70 km southwest of Manaus. A thermal desorption chemicalionization mass spectrometer (TDCIMS) characterized the most abundant compounds detected in ultrafine particles. Two time periods representing distinct influences on aerosol composition, which we label as “anthropogenic” and “background” periods, were studied as part of a larger 10 d period of analysis. Higher particle number concentrations were measured during the anthropogenic period, and modeled back-trajectory frequencies indicate transport of emissions from the Manaus metropolitan area. During the background period there were much lower number concentrations, and back-trajectory frequencies showed that air masses arrived at the site predominantly from the forested regions to the north and northeast. TDCIMS-measured constituents also show distinct differences between the two observational periods. Although bisulfate was detected in particles throughout the 10 d period, the anthropogenic period had higher levels of particulate bisulfate overall. Ammonium and trimethyl ammonium were positively correlated with bisulfate. The background period had distinct diurnal patterns of particulate cyanate and acetate, while oxalate remained relatively constant during the 10 d period. 3-Methylfuran, a thermal decomposition product of a particulate-phase isoprene epoxy diol(IEPOX), was the dominant species measured in the positive-ion mode. Principal component analysis (PCA) was performed on the TDCIMS-measured ion abundance and aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) mass concentration data. Two different hierarchical clusters representing unique influences arise: one comprising ultrafine particulate acetate, hydrogen oxalate, cyanate, trimethyl ammonium and 3-methylfuran and another made up of ultra fine particulate bisulfate, chloride, ammonium and potassium. A third cluster separated AMS-measured species from the two TDCIMS-derived clusters, indicating different sources or processes in ultrafine aerosol particle formation compared to larger submicron-sized particles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗