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DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical Testing of a Hybrid Machine Learning‐Physics Global Atmosphere Model

Machine learning (ML)-based models have demonstrated high skill and computational efficiency, often outperforming conventional physics-based models in weather and subseasonal predictions. While prior studies have assessed their fidelity in capturing synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics, their performance across timescales and under out-of-distribution forcing, such as +3K or +4K uniform-warming forcings, and the sources of biases remain elusive, to establish the model's reliability for Earth science. Here, we design three sets of experiments targeting synoptic-scale phenomena, interannual variability, and out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings. We evaluate the Neural General Circulation Model (NeuralGCM), a hybrid model integrating a dynamical core with ML-based component, against observations and physics-based Earth system models (ESMs). At the synoptic scale, NeuralGCM captures the evolution and propagation of extratropical cyclones with performance comparable to ESMs. At the interannual scale, when forced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, NeuralGCM successfully reproduces associated teleconnection patterns but exhibits deficiencies in capturing nonlinear response. Under out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings, NeuralGCM simulates similar responses in global-average temperature and precipitation and reproduces large-scale tropospheric circulation features similar to those in ESMs. Notable weaknesses include overestimating the tracks and spatial extent of extratropical cyclones, biases in the teleconnected wave train triggered by tropical SST anomalies, and differences in upper-level warming and stratospheric circulation responses to SST warming compared to physics-based ESMs. The causes of these weaknesses were explored. Despite the noted weaknesses, NeuralGCM reproduces responses across experiments reasonably and performs comparably to ESMs. By integrating a dynamical core with ML, NeuralGCM shows potential for developing ML-based ESMs.

global warming↗

DOE OSTI2025

Measurements of the polarization of several instabilities in the DIII-D tokamak

Recently, a method to infer the polarization of modes with frequencies much less than the ion cyclotron frequency was published [X.D. Du et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 132 (2024) 215101]. The method uses measurements of electron temperature and density fluctuations δTₑ and δnₑ at the same spatial position to infer the local ratio of “acoustic polarization,” |δϕ ∥ |/(|δϕ ∥ |+|δψ|), where δϕ ∥ is the effective parallel potential and δψ is related to the parallel magnetic vector potential A ∥ . This paper summarizes key formulas, with emphasis on their range of validity, and elaborates on the workflow required to infer the acoustic polarization from experimental data. The drift-acoustic polarization of ellipticity-induced, toroidicity-induced, and reversed shear Alfvén eigenmodes is nearly zero, as expected for modes with predominately shear-Alfvénic polarization. The polarization of beta-induced Alfvén eigenmodes contains an acoustic component that increases with poloidal wave number. “Low frequency modes,” (instabilities that appear transiently when the minimum of the safety factor qₘᵢₙ passes through rational values) have large and highly variable acoustic polarization. In both experiment and simulation, fishbones have non-zero acoustic polarization that increases as the mode chirps down in frequency.

Alfven eigenmode↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling microbial carbon fluxes and stocks in global soils from 1901 to 2016

Abstract. Soil microbes play a crucial role in the carbon (C) cycle; however, they have been overlooked in predicting the terrestrial C cycle. We applied a microbial-explicit Earth system model – the Community Land Model-Microbe (CLM-Microbe) – to investigate the dynamics of soil microbes during 1901 to 2016. The CLM-Microbe model was able to reproduce the variations of gross (GPP) and net (NPP) primary productivity, heterotrophic (HR) and soil (SR) respiration, microbial (MBC) biomass C in fungi (FBC) and bacteria (BBC) in the top 30 cm and 1 m, and dissolved (DOC) and soil organic C (SOC) in the top 30 cm and 1 m during 1901–2016. During the study period, simulated C variables increased by approximately 12 PgC yr−1 for HR, 25 PgC yr−1 for SR, 1.0 PgC for FBC and 0.4 PgC for BBC in 0–30 cm, and 1.2 PgC for FBC and 0.7 PgC for BBC in 0–1 m. Increases in microbial C fluxes and pools were widely found, particularly at high latitudes and in equatorial regions, but we also observed their decreases in some grids. Overall, the area-weighted averages of HR, SR, FBC, and BBC in the top 1 m were significantly correlated with those of soil moisture and soil temperature in the top 1 m. These results suggested that microbial C fluxes and pools were jointly governed by vegetation C input and soil temperature and moisture. Our simulations revealed the spatial and temporal patterns of microbial C fluxes and pools in response to environmental change, laying the foundation for an improved understanding of soil microbial roles in the global terrestrial C cycle.

He, Liyuan↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predicted range expansion of Prostephanus truncatus (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae) under projected climate change scenarios

Abstract The larger grain borer (Prostephanus truncatus [Horn] [Coleoptera: Bostrichidae]) is a wood-boring insect native to Central America and adapted to stored maize and cassava. It was accidentally introduced to Tanzania and became a pest across central Africa. Unlike many grain pests, P. truncatus populations can establish and move within forests. Consequently, novel infestations can occur without human influence. The objectives of our study were to (i) develop an updated current suitability projection for P. truncatus, (ii) assess its potential future distribution under different climate change scenarios, and (iii) identify climate variables that best inform the model. We used WALLACE and MaxEnt to predict potential global distribution by incorporating bioclimatic variables and occurrence records. Future models were projected for 2050 and 2070 with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 (low change) and 8.5 (high change). Distribution was most limited by high precipitation and cold temperatures. Globally, highly suitable areas (> 75%) primarily occurred along coastal and equatorial regions with novel areas in northern South America, India, southeastern Asia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, totaling 7% under current conditions. Highly suitable areas at RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 are estimated to increase to 12% and 15%, respectively, by 2050 and increase to 19% in 2070 under RCP 8.5. Centroids of highly suitable areas show distribution centers moving more inshore and away from the equator. Notably, the result is a range expansion, not a shift. Results can be used to decrease biosecurity risks through more spatially explicit and timely surveillance programs for targeting the exclusion of this pest.

Entomology↗

DOE OSTI2019

Fractional Operators Applied to Geophysical Electromagnetics

A growing body of applied mathematics literature in recent years has focused on the application of fractional calculus to problems of anomalous transport. In these analyses, the anomalous transport (of charge, tracers, fluid, etc.) is presumed attributable to long–range correlations of material properties within an inherently complex, and in some cases self-similar, conducting medium. Rather than considering an exquisitely discretized (and computationally intractable) representation of the medium, the complex and spatially correlated heterogeneity is represented through reformulation of the governing equation for the relevant transport physics such that its coefficients are, instead, smooth but paired with fractional–order space derivatives. Here we apply these concepts to the scalar Helmholtz equation and its use in electromagnetic interrogation of Earth’s interior through the magnetotelluric method. We outline a practical algorithm for solving the Helmholtz equation using spectral methods coupled with finite element discretizations. Execution of this algorithm for the magnetotelluric problem reveals several interesting features observable in field data: long–range correlation of the predicted electromagnetic fields; a power–law relationship between the squared impedance amplitude and squared wavenumber whose slope is a function of the fractional exponent within the governing Helmholtz equation; and, a non–constant apparent resistivity spectrum whose variability arises solely from the fractional exponent. In geologic settings characterized by self–similarity (e.g. fracture systems; thick and richly–textured sedimentary sequences, etc.) we posit that these diagnostics are useful for geologic characterization of features far below the typical resolution limit of electromagnetic methods in geophysics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning and process-based modeling of spatiotemporal changes in active layer thickness across Alaska

Permafrost degradation poses a growing threat to infrastructure stability and ecosystem resilience in the rapidly warming Arctic. We investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of active layer thickness (ALT) across Alaska by integrating field observations, environmental datasets, a physically based Stefan model, and machine learning (ML) techniques. Using weather projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5), we assessed ALT sensitivity to projected future weather conditions. The random forest (RF) model outperformed the Stefan approach in predicting ALT on the training dataset (R² = 0.84 vs. 0.53) but demonstrated lower generalizability on the test dataset (R² = 0.24 vs. 0.54). The root mean square error (RMSE) for the RF model for training and testing ranged from 14 to 22 cm, compared to 17 and 18 cm for the Stefan model. Variable importance analysis revealed that mean annual temperature and slope angle were the strongest predictors of ALT, accounting for 19% and 18% of the variance, respectively, followed by sediment transport index (14%) and stream power index (11%). Comparative analysis of baseline ALT predictions showed the Stefan model tended to project a thicker active layer (mean ± SD: 65 ± 16 cm), compared to the RF model (mean ± SD: 59 ± 8.8) cm). Both models indicated a latitudinal gradient in ALT, with shallower depths at higher latitudes. Projected ALT increases by 2100 were estimated at 3.3 ± 2.2 cm under SSP 2-4.5 and 5.9 ± 4.0 cm under SSP 5-8.5 for the ML model, whereas the Stefan model projected substantially larger increases of 13 ± 2.6 cm (SSP 2-4.5) and 28 ± 4.4 cm (SSP5-8.5). Spatial analysis showed the greatest ALT increases in northern Alaska, with relatively smaller changes in southern regions. These findings highlight the complex, multifactorial nature of ALT dynamics and the value of hybrid modeling approaches. As rising temperatures accelerate permafrost thaw, changes in ALT can disrupt ecosystems, damage infrastructures, and enhance the release of stored soil carbon, highlighting the urgent need for improved predictive capabilities to inform adaptation strategies in the Arctic.

Climate sciences↗

DOE OSTI2024

"Hierarchical Speed Planner for Automated Vehicles: A Framework for Lagrangian Variable Speed Limit in Mixed Autonomy Traffic"

This paper introduces a novel control framework for Lagrangian variable speed limits in hybrid traffic flow environments utilizing automated vehicles (AVs). The framework was validated using a fleet of 100 connected automated vehicles as part of the largest coordinated open-road test designed to smooth traffic flow. The framework includes two main components: a high-level controller deployed on the server side, named Speed Planner, and low-level controllers called vehicle controllers deployed on the vehicle side. The Speed Planner designs and updates target speeds for the vehicle controllers based on real-time Traffic State Estimation (TSE) [1]. The Speed Planner comprises two modules: a TSE enhancement module and a target speed design module. The TSE enhancement module is designed to minimize the effects of inherent latency in the received traffic information and to improve the spatial and temporal resolution of the input traffic data. The target speed design module generates target speed profiles with the goal of improving traffic flow. The vehicle controllers are designed to track the target speed meanwhile responding to the surrounding situation. The numerical simulation indicates the performance of the proposed method: the bottleneck throughput has increased by 5.01%, and the speed standard deviation has been reduced by a significant 34.36%. We further showcase an operational study with a description of how the controller was implemented on a field-test with 100 AVs and its comprehensive effects on the traffic flow.

Wang, Han↗

DOE OSTI2021

Root lateral interactions drive water uptake patterns under water limitation

The plasticity of root water uptake determines the maintenance of transpiration during periods of water limitation and drought. However, the mechanistic basis of plant water uptake, as well as the implications of water uptake strategies at the individual and ecosystem scale remain elusive. We model three-dimensional root water uptake under variably saturated conditions for a one-hectare temperate forest plot for a growing season with a pronounced mid-season dry period. Variations in root architecture, hydraulic properties, and degree of lateral interaction between root systems produce divergent local responses to water limitation and provide insights on individual and community response to meteorological conditions. Results demonstrate the plasticity of ecosystem-scale responses to surface drying, where interacting roots shift regions of active uptake to deeper soil layers with less abundant root biomass. These shifts, a product of both root system and soil hydraulic properties, illustrate intimate links between root and soil hydraulics in determining plant water sourcing. Furthermore, we demonstrate that root lateral interactions are beneficial at the ecosystem-scale, even when trees compete for water. Specifically, a more spatially extensive root system facilitates access to a larger soil water reservoir, often ameliorating water limitation and reducing sharp water potential gradients. While the reduction of water stress is a benefit, it can be offset by increased root construction and maintenance costs associated with the larger rooting system. A plausible “viability” region of root communal co-existence is therefore implied where competitive pressures and root production costs are balanced by a potential water benefit.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Physics-based adaptivity of a spectral method for the Vlasov–Poisson equations based on the asymmetrically-weighted Hermite expansion in velocity space

We propose a spectral method for the 1D-1V Vlasov–Poisson system where the discretization in velocity space is based on asymmetrically-weighted Hermite functions, dynamically adapted via a scaling α and shifting u of the velocity variable. Specifically, at each time instant an adaptivity criterion selects new values of α and u based on the numerical solution of the discrete Vlasov–Poisson system obtained at that time step. Once the new values of the Hermite parameters α and u are fixed, the Hermite expansion is updated and the discrete system is further evolved for the next time step. The procedure is applied iteratively over the desired temporal interval. The key aspects of the adaptive algorithm are: the map between approximation spaces associated with different values of the Hermite parameters that preserves total mass, momentum and energy; and the adaptivity criterion to update α and u based on physics considerations relating the Hermite parameters to the average velocity and temperature of each plasma species. For the discretization of the spatial coordinate, we rely on Fourier functions and use the implicit midpoint rule for time stepping. The resulting numerical method possesses intrinsically the property of fluid-kinetic coupling, where the low-order terms of the expansion are akin to the fluid moments of a macroscopic description of the plasma, while kinetic physics is retained by adding more spectral terms. Moreover, the scheme features conservation of total mass, momentum and energy associated in the discrete, for periodic boundary conditions. A set of numerical experiments confirms that the adaptive method outperforms the non-adaptive one in terms of accuracy and stability of the numerical solution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Modeling, Parameter Estimation, and Data Reconciliation of a Supercritical Pulverized Coal-Fired Boiler

A high-fidelity, spatially distributed dynamic model of a supercritical pulverized coal-fired boiler was developed for calculating transient thermal profiles of the boiler tubes, which are often not measured or unmeasurable in industrial settings due to the harsh operating conditions. In this work, rigorous models of the subcritical and supercritical steam properties, which can be highly nonlinear, were used to capture the transition between two-phase and one-phase flow, respectively, as supercritical boilers frequently transition through the critical point during load-following operation. The transient boiler model was also used for data reconciliation and parameter estimation for the purpose of model validation against industrial data. An approach was developed to reduce the size of large-scale reconciliation problem by focusing on the implementation of bias terms for the reconciled variables, which can be estimated in place of the reconciled variables themselves. In addition, a functional approximation of the reconciliation problem was defined so that it can be more simply optimized. Combining this functional approximation optimization with reformulation of the reconciliation problem considering measurement biases can significantly improve the tractability of many such large-scale problems. The validated boiler model was then used to study transient responses under load-following operation with specific attention on the calculation of unmeasurable variables.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Climatology of Linear Mesoscale Convective System Morphology in the United States based on Random Forests Method

This study uses machine learning methods, specifically the random forest (RF), on a radar-based mesoscale convective system (MCS) tracking dataset to classify the five types of linear MCS morphology in the contiguous United States during the period 2004-2016. The algorithm is trained using radar- and satellite-derived spatial and morphological parameters, and reanalysis environmental information from 5-26yr manually identified nonlinear and five linear MCS modes. The algorithm is then used to automate the classification of linear MCSs over 8 years with high accuracy, providing a systematic, long-term climatology of linear MCSs. Results reveal that nearly 40% of MCSs are classified as linear MCSs, in which half of the linear events belong to the type of system having a leading convective line. The occurrence of linear MCSs shows large annual and seasonal variations. On average, 113 linear MCSs occur annually during the warm season (through March to October), with most of these events clustered from May through August in the central eastern Great Plains. MCS characteristics, including duration, propagation speed, orientation, and system cloud size, have large variability among the different linear modes. The systems having a trailing convective line and the systems having a back-building area of convection typically move more slowly and have higher precipitation rate, and thus have higher potential in producing extreme rainfall and flash flooding. Analysis of the environmental conditions associated with linear MCSs show that the storm-relative flow is of most importance in determining the organization mode of linear MCSs.

Cui, Wenjun↗

DOE OSTI2020

Diagnosis of convective organization and cold pools using ARM datasets and evaluation of a unified convection parameterization (UNICON)

Tropical thunderstorms often cluster together. Studies have suggested that the degree to which the tropical thunderstorms are clustered impacts Earth's energy balance and water cycle, as well as extreme precipitation events. However, the processes controlling the spatial distribution of the thunderstorms are poorly understood and are not properly represented in most computer models for weather and climate prediction. Under the goals of better understanding how convection organizes at the mesoscale and advancing the representation of mesoscale convective organization in global climate models, we i) objectively quantified the degrees of convective organization and diagnosed cold pool processes using ARM field campaign observations, ii) examined the organization processes in storm-resolving model simulations, and iii) evaluated the impacts of mesoscale convective organization in global model simulations. The project yielded a firm reference against which the global model representation of mesoscale convective organization and cold pools can be evaluated against and shed new light into the role of parameterized convective organization in the global model simulation of the basic state and variability. Our results revealed two distinct phases of convective clustering during the two-day rain episodes (Cheng et al. 2018) and a new mechanism through which vertical wind shear in the low-troposphere can aid convective organization over tropical oceans (Cheng et al. 2020). It was demonstrated that the interactive representation of cold pools and mesoscale convective organization is key for global models to successfully simulate both the mean state and intraseasonal variability in the tropics (Ahn et al. 2019; 2020).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Coastal-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE) Science Plan

Understanding the mechanisms governing the urban atmospheric environment is critical for informing urban populations regarding the impacts of climate change and associated mitigation and adaptation measures. Earth system (climate and weather) models have not yet been adapted to provide accurate predictions of climate and weather variability within cities, nor do they provide well-tested representations of the impacts of urban systems on the atmospheric environment. These limitations are largely due to limited field data available for testing and development of these models. We will deploy the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s first Mobile Facility (AMF1) to the mid-Atlantic region surrounding the city of Baltimore for the Coast-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE). This deployment will create a four-node regional atmospheric observatory network including Baltimore and its three primary surrounding environments – rural, urban, and bay. CoURAGE investigators will study the interactions among the Earth’s surface, the atmospheric boundary layer, aerosols and atmospheric composition, clouds, radiation, and precipitation at each site, and examine how the spatial gradients across the region interact to create the climate conditions in Baltimore. This study will determine the degree to which Baltimore’s atmospheric environment depends on interactive feedbacks in the atmospheric system and the degree to which conditions in Baltimore depend on the surrounding environment. Some topics of interest include how urban land management exacerbates heat waves, the impact of regional mesoscale winds (nocturnal jet, bay breeze) on urban air pollution and cloud cover, and the impact of the urban heat island and aerosol production on heavy precipitation events. Understanding this integrated coast-urban-rural system quantitatively and with good accuracy and precision is critical to informing climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in the city of Baltimore. The understanding gained should be applicable to many similar coastal, mid-latitude urban centers. Another important objective of CoURAGE is to improve the representation of the climate of coastal cities in Earth systems models (ESMs). CoURAGE investigators will use the observations to test current ESMs, identify weaknesses and work towards improved simulations of this complex environment. The ARM core facility will be deployed in the city of Baltimore, complementing the Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative (BSEC), a DOE urban integrated field laboratory (UIFL). Ancillary sites will be deployed to rural Maryland northwest of Baltimore, and to the southern end of Kent Island within Chesapeake Bay. The fourth node will be a long-term atmospheric observatory operated in Beltsville, Maryland by Howard University and the Maryland Department of the Environment. Measurements will be conducted for one year, starting in December of 2024. There will be two intensive operational periods (IOPs), one in summer and one in winter, when the ancillary sites will be enhanced with additional balloon launches, tethered balloon system (TBS) operation, and added atmospheric composition measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Renewable Energy and Efficiency Technologies in Scenarios of U.S. Decarbonization in Two Types of Models: Comparison of GCAM Modeling and Sector-Specific Modeling

Energy system projections from analytic models inform actions ranging from short-term and local decisions, such as technology and infrastructure deployment, to global and long-term negotiations and targets. Computational limits require the designers of these models to trade off between coverage and resolution. Some models, such as the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), represent all energy sources and uses but at a relatively coarse level of resolution. GCAM balances global supply and demand of all energy carriers by endogenously projecting prices for energy sources and costs of greenhouse gas mitigation while capturing interlinkages between the energy system, water, agriculture and land use, the economy, and the climate. This global model was used to frame the Long-Term Strategy released by the White House in 2021 and has been used to inform national and global economy-wide decarbonization discussions and strategy development for decades. Other models instead focus on a portion of the energy sector with greater detail and resolution. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) electricity-sector model, for example, projects capacity expansion with an emphasis on integration of variable renewable energy into the grid of the future. The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) transportation-sector model enables analysis of household choices in adoption, charging, and use of electric vehicles. The Scout buildings-sector model supports detailed consideration of the policies and markets that can accelerate the adoption of energy conservation measures in buildings. Such sector-specific models are instrumental in informing technology research, sectoral planning strategies, and sector-specific aspects of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation strategies in the United States. These global and sector-specific modeling approaches can complement each other. The global approach ensures consistent, endogenous energy pricing and resource allocation, which can substantially diverge from current conditions in transformative scenarios, while the sector-specific approach facilitates representation of granular details across spatial, temporal, technological, and market dimensions that enable exploration of particular interactions and trade-offs. This report presents the results of recent work to explore the differences and tradeoffs between these approaches by comparing GCAM with the sector-specific ReEDS, TEMPO, and Scout models. The report compares both model structures and results, and discusses their potential relevance and applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Representing surface heterogeneity in land–atmosphere coupling in E3SMv1 single-column model over ARM SGP during summertime

Abstract. The Earth's land surface features spatial and temporal heterogeneity over a wide range of scales below those resolved by current Earth system models (ESMs). State-of-the-art land and atmosphere models employ parameterizations to represent their subgrid heterogeneity, but the land–atmosphere coupling in ESMs typically operates on the grid scale. Communicating the information on the land surface heterogeneity with the overlying atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) remains a challenge in modeling land–atmosphere interactions. In order to account for the subgrid-scale heterogeneity in land–atmosphere coupling, we implement a new coupling scheme in the Energy Exascale Earth system model version 1 (E3SMv1) that uses adjusted surface variances and covariance of potential temperature and specific water content as the lower boundary condition for the atmosphere model. The new lower boundary condition accounts for both the variability of individual subgrid land surface patches and the inter-patch variability. The E3SMv1 single-column model (SCM) simulations over the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plain (SGP) site were performed to assess the impacts. We find that the new coupling parameterization increases the magnitude and diurnal cycle of the temperature variance and humidity variance in the lower ABL on non-precipitating days. The impacts are primarily attributed to subgrid inter-patch variability rather than the variability of individual patches. These effects extend vertically from the surface to several levels in the lower ABL on clear days. We also find that accounting for surface heterogeneity increases low cloud cover and liquid water path (LWP). These cloud changes are associated with the change in cloud regime indicated by the skewness of the probability density function (PDF) of the subgrid vertical velocity. In precipitating days, the inter-patch variability reduces significantly so that the impact of accounting for surface heterogeneity vanishes. These results highlight the importance of accounting for subgrid heterogeneity in land–atmosphere coupling in next-generation ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of Distributed River Sediment Respiration Rates Using Community-Generated Data and Machine Learning

River sediment microbial respiration is a key indicator of ecosystem functioning and the biogeochemical fluxes across this critical zone link surface and subsurface waters. As such, there is tremendous interest in measuring and mapping these respiration rates. Respiration observations are expensive and labor intensive; there is limited data available to the community. An open science, collaborative initiative is collecting samples for respiration rate analysis and multi-scale metadata; this evolving data set is being used for making machine learning (ML) predictions at unsampled sites to help inform continued community engagement. However, it is a challenge to find an optimum configuration for ML models to work with this feature-rich (i.e., 100+ possible input variables) data set. Here, we present results from a two-tiered approach to managing the analysis of this complex data set: (a) a stacked ensemble of models that automatically optimizes hyperparameters and manages the training of many models and (b) feature permutation importance to detect the most important features in the models. The major elements of this workflow are modular, portable, open, and cloud-based thus making this implementation a potential template for other applications. The models developed here predict that sediment organic matter chemistry is one of the most important features for predicting sediment respiration rate. Other larger-scale, important features fall into the categories of climatic, ecological, geological, and fluvial settings. Leveraging these larger-scale features to generate data-driven estimates of river sediment respiration rates reveals spatially consistent but heterogeneous patterns across the river network of the Columbia River Basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Devising novel methods for the controlled synthesis with morphology and size control of scintillator materials

Nanoscale scintillators represent an important class of materials underlying the functioning of high resolution, high ‘light yield’ radiation detection equipment, applicable for medicine in addition to security and environmental monitoring. This current study has focused on the controlled synthesis of Cs 2 ZnX 4 (X = Cl, Br) not only due to its very fast and promising radioluminescence decay time but also because no reliable synthesis protocols have been reported for producing nanoscale motifs of this material, to date. Solution-based methods can be used to synthesize products, possessing different, discrete morphologies with the ability to dictate particle size and shape. Specifically, we have demonstrated that a hot injection technique can be used to fabricate nanoscale rods and plates. Using this method, we systematically studied the effect of varying reaction variables, such as (i) reaction temperature, (ii) surfactants, and (iii) reaction time. As synthesized nanorods of Cs 2 ZnCl 4 possessed lengths of 101.3 ± 24.4 nm with widths of 17.3 ± 4.5 nm, whereas Cs 2 ZnBr 4 , created under identical conditions, were characterized by lengths of 206 ± 50 nm and widths of 26.7 ± 12.6 nm. Ligand-assisted re-precipitation (LARP) was used to produce the corresponding micron-sized particles. Under these conditions, we successfully synthesized spindles and spherical particles of Cs 2 ZnCl 4 with sizes of 1.58 ± 0.16 μm and 1.03 ± 0.34 μm, respectively, whereas plates of Cs 2 ZnBr 4 were prepared with average sizes of 0.76 ± 0.21 μm. High resolution synchrotron mapping, using the hard X-ray nanoprobe at NSLS II, was used to confirm the expected spatial distribution of Cs, Zn, and Cl within the as-produced crystals. Nanorods of Cs 2 ZnCl 4 and Cs 2 ZnBr 4 were subsequently tested for scintillation light yield and decay times. Preliminary results showed that Cs 2 ZnCl 4 maintained a light yield of 100–300 photons per MeV with a fast decay component of 2.6 ns. Finally, the Cs 2 ZnBr 4 analogue did not give rise to any perceptible scintillation emission.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electrolyte Vapor Induced Passivation and Transition Metal Redox on Electrode Active Materials

The gaseous environment that battery electrodes are exposed to is critical to their electrochemical performance, and yet, the impact of vapor-phase components in the glovebox is relatively unexplored. In this study, we examine how the surface of Li 4 Ti 5 O 12 and LiFePO 4 composite electrodes evolve upon exposure to 1 M LiPF 6 in ethylene carbonate:dimethyl carbonate electrolyte vapors in an argon-filled glovebox. Spatially resolved X-ray photoemission electron microscopy and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy reveal that even brief (15 minutes) contact with electrolyte vapor initiates the formation of a LiF film and changes the oxidation state of transition metals at the particle surface. Notably, these modifications occur selectively on active material particles and not on binder or conductive carbon, underscoring the specificity of vapor-induced reactions. Prolonged exposure to electrolyte vapor over the course of 1 week yields thicker, more chemically complex interphases containing both LiF and lithium oxyfluorophosphate species (Li x PO y F z ). Subsequent electrochemical testing shows that vapor-induced passivation layers influence first cycle capacities, lithium (de)insertion overpotentials, and charge-transfer resistance values. In conclusion, these results indicate that vapor–electrode interactions may be a source of variability in electrochemical behavior over time and suggest that other, more reactive electrode materials may also be susceptible to interactions with electrolyte vapor.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗