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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,369 records · Page 76
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1984

Measured microwave emission and scattering in vegetation canopies

Reflecting metal screens were placed beneath vegetation of three types to allow measurement of the brightness temperature of the vegetation cover alone. A two-frequency radiometer (wavelengths: 11.1 and 5.88 cm) was used to measure the emission from the vegetation, and a theoretical model involving a loss term and a scattering albedo was fitted to the measured temperatures. Passive and active microwave measurements were also made on fields immediately adjacent to the 'screened' fields. Emission and backscattering were measured for these fields under two conditions: with full vegetation cover, and with vegetation removed. Using the same theoretical model and the calculated values for absorption and scattering derived from the screened fields, the effect of the vegetation cover on the soil emission was predicted. The predicted full-canopy temperatures were then compared to those measured. The values for loss and scattering in the vegetation canopy were used in another model to predict the effect of vegetation on backscattering from the soil surface. Again, the predicted backscattering from the vegetation canopy was compared with the measured values of the backscattering coefficient.

Brunfeldt, D. R.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Active unsteady aerodynamic suppression of rotating stall in an incompressible flow centrifugal compressor with vaned diffuser

A mathematical model is developed to analyze the suppression of rotating stall in an incompressible flow centrifugal compressor with a vaned diffuser, thereby addressing the important need for centrifugal compressor rotating stall and surge control. In this model, the precursor to to instability is a weak rotating potential velocity perturbation in the inlet flow field that eventually develops into a finite disturbance. To suppress the growth of this potential disturbance, a rotating control vortical velocity disturbance is introduced into the impeller inlet flow. The effectiveness of this control is analyzed by matching the perturbation pressure in the compressor inlet and exit flow fields with a model for the unsteady behavior of the compressor. To demonstrate instability control, this model is then used to predict the control effectiveness for centrifugal compressor geometries based on a low speed research centrifugal compressor. These results indicate that reductions of 10 to 15 percent in the mean inlet flow coefficient at instability are possible with control waveforms of half the magnitude of the total disturbance at the inlet.

Lawless, Patrick B.↗
NASA NTRS2002

A Passive Magnetic Bearing Flywheel

A 100 percent passive magnetic bearing flywheel rig employing no active control components was designed, constructed, and tested. The suspension clothe rotor was provided by two sets of radial permanent magnetic bearings operating in the repulsive mode. The axial support was provided by jewel bearings on both ends of the rotor. The rig was successfully operated to speeds of 5500 rpm, which is 65 percent above the first critical speed of 3336 rpm. Operation was not continued beyond this point because of the excessive noise generated by the air impeller and because of inadequate containment in case of failure. Radial and axial stiffnesses of the permanent magnetic bearings were experimentally measured and then compared to finite element results. The natural damping of the rotor was measured and a damping coefficient was calculated.

Siebert, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2013

Coherent Uncertainty Analysis of Aerosol Measurements from Multiple Satellite Sensors

Aerosol retrievals from multiple spaceborne sensors, including MODIS (on Terra and Aqua), MISR, OMI, POLDER, CALIOP, and SeaWiFS altogether, a total of 11 different aerosol products were comparatively analyzed using data collocated with ground-based aerosol observations from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) stations within the Multi-sensor Aerosol Products Sampling System (MAPSS, http://giovanni.gsfc.nasa.gov/mapss/ and http://giovanni.gsfc.nasa.gov/aerostat/). The analysis was performed by comparing quality-screened satellite aerosol optical depth or thickness (AOD or AOT) retrievals during 2006-2010 to available collocated AERONET measurements globally, regionally, and seasonally, and deriving a number of statistical measures of accuracy. We used a robust statistical approach to detect and remove possible outliers in the collocated data that can bias the results of the analysis. Overall, the proportion of outliers in each of the quality-screened AOD products was within 12%. Squared correlation coefficient (R2) values of the satellite AOD retrievals relative to AERONET exceeded 0.6, with R2 for most of the products exceeding 0.7 over land and 0.8 over ocean. Root mean square error (RMSE) values for most of the AOD products were within 0.15 over land and 0.09 over ocean. We have been able to generate global maps showing regions where the different products present advantages over the others, as well as the relative performance of each product over different landcover types. It was observed that while MODIS, MISR, and SeaWiFS provide accurate retrievals over most of the landcover types, multi-angle capabilities make MISR the only sensor to retrieve reliable AOD over barren and snow / ice surfaces. Likewise, active sensing enables CALIOP to retrieve aerosol properties over bright-surface shrublands more accurately than the other sensors, while POLDER, which is the only one of the sensors capable of measuring polarized aerosols, outperforms other sensors in certain smoke-dominated regions, including broadleaf evergreens in Brazil and South-East Asia.

remote sensing↗
NASA NTRS2015

Flow Separation Control on A Full-Scale Vertical Tail Model Using Sweeping Jet Actuators

This paper describes test results of a joint NASA/Boeing research effort to advance Active Flow Control (AFC) technology to enhance aerodynamic efficiency. A full-scale Boeing 757 vertical tail model equipped with sweeping jets AFC was tested at the National Full-Scale Aerodynamics Complex 40- by 80-Foot Wind Tunnel at NASA Ames Research Center. The flow separation control optimization was performed at 100 knots, a maximum rudder deflection of 30deg, and sideslip angles of 0deg and -7.5deg. Greater than 20% increments in side force were achieved at the two sideslip angles with a 31-actuator AFC configuration. Flow physics and flow separation control associated with the AFC are presented in detail. AFC caused significant increases in suction pressure on the actuator side and associated side force enhancement. The momentum coefficient (C sub mu) is shown to be a useful parameter to use for scaling-up sweeping jet AFC from sub-scale tests to full-scale applications. Reducing the number of actuators at a constant total C(sub mu) of approximately 0.5% and tripling the actuator spacing did not significantly affect the flow separation control effectiveness.

Andino, Marlyn Y.↗
DOE OSTI2021

On the feasibility of using physics-informed machine learning for underground reservoir pressure management

In this work, we evaluate the feasibility of using physics-informed machine learning (PIML) for underground energy-related pressure management. To this end, we develop a PIML framework to manage underground reservoir pressures by training neural networks to determine fluid extraction rates for dedicated extraction wells during fluid injection operations given a range of reservoir conditions (e.g., transmissivity and storativity). We implement an automatically-differentiable analytical physics model of fluid flow in porous media within the PIML framework as a proxy for more complicated models. This allows us to execute a sufficient number of training scenarios to fully evaluate the feasibility of using PIML to support pressure management activities. We quantify the number of physics-model parameters required for automatic differentiation to become more efficient than finite-difference gradient calculations. We use a simple scenario with a single injector, extractor, and critical location for our feasibility analysis. We evaluate the effect of the size of the training dataset (i.e., the number of reservoir condition samples) on the accuracy and efficiency of the PIML framework. For an equivalent number of model evaluations, the larger training dataset took less time to train and produced a neural network that was able to more accurately manage reservoir pressures. We also evaluate the effect of the training dataset batch size (i.e., number of reservoir condition samples used to update the neural network coefficients during training; i.e., how the training dataset is partitioned). While training ran faster with larger batch sizes, they produced neural networks that managed pressures less accurately. We demonstrate the approach on a more complex scenario involving 10 injectors, 10 extractors, and 4 critical locations (a relatively high well density of 20 wells/km2). We provide the number of forward and adjoint model evaluations required in each case as an indication of the feasibility of using PIML for pressure management when more complicated physics models with longer execution times are used.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Oxygen diffusion in garnet: Experimental calibration and implications for timescales of metamorphic processes and retention of primary O isotopic signatures

Knowledge of oxygen diffusion in garnet is crucial for a correct interpretation of oxygen isotope signatures in natural samples. A series of experiments was undertaken to determine the diffusivity of oxygen in garnet, which remains poorly constrained. The first suite included high-pressure (HP), nominally dry experiments performed in piston-cylinder apparatus at: (1) T = 1050–1600 °C and P = 1.5 GPa and (2) T = 1500 °C and P = 2.5 GPa using yttrium aluminum garnet (YAG; Y3Al5O12) cubes. Second, HP H2O-saturated experiments were conducted at T = 900 °C and P = 1.0–1.5 GPa, wherein YAG crystals were packed into a YAG + Corundum powder, along with 18O-enriched H2O. Third, 1 atm experiments with YAG cubes were performed in a gas-mixing furnace at T = 1500–1600 °C under Ar flux. Finally, an experiment at T = 900 °C and P = 1.0 GPa was done using a pyrope cube embedded into pyrope powder and 18O-enriched H2O. Experiments using grossular were not successful. Profiles of 18O/(18O+16O) in the experimental charges were analyzed with three different secondary ion mass spectrometers (SIMS): sensitive high-resolution ion microprobe (SHRIMP II and SI), CAMECA IMS-1280, and NanoSIMS. Considering only the measured length of 18O diffusion profiles, similar results were obtained for YAG and pyrope annealed at 900 °C, suggesting limited effects of chemical composition on oxygen diffusivity. However, in both garnet types, several profiles deviate from the error function geometry, suggesting that the behavior of O in garnet cannot be fully described as simple concentration-independent diffusion, certainly in YAG and likely in natural pyrope as well. The experimental results are better described by invoking O diffusion via two distinct pathways with an inter-site reaction allowing O to move between these pathways. Modeling this process yields two diffusion coefficients (D values) for O, one of which is approximately two orders of magnitude higher than the other. Taken together, Arrhenius relationships are:logDm2s-1=-7.2(±1.3)+(-321(±32)kJmol-12.303RT) for the slow pathway, andlogDm2s-1=-5.4(±0.7)+(-321(±20)kJmol-12.303RT) for the fast pathway. We interpret the two pathways as representing diffusion following vacancy and inter-stitial mechanisms, respectively. Regardless, our new data suggest that the slow mechanism is prevalent in garnet with natural compositions, and thus is likely to control the retentivity of oxygen isotopic signatures in natural samples. The diffusivity of oxygen is similar to Fe-Mn diffusivity in garnet at 1000–1100 °C and Ca diffusivity at 850 °C. However, the activation energy for O diffusion is larger, leading to lower diffusivities at P-T conditions characterizing crustal metamorphism. Therefore, original O isotopic signatures can be retained in garnets showing major element zoning partially re-equilibrated by diffusion, with the uncertainty caveat of extrapolating the experimental data to lower temperature conditions.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
NASA NTRS1988

On-orbit parametric identification methodology

On-orbit system identification (ID) of large space systems is essential for various reasons. For example, the complex composite structure of such systems cannot be ground-tested; their structural dynamic characteristics must be known accurately in order to accomplish active control. Furthermore, such capability can be used to characterize/identify various disturbances. The identification process is consisted of four principal elements: (1) modeling, (2) the estimation algorithm, (3) input system, and (4) measurement system. These elements are highly correlated and all togerher determine the success of the identification problem. Accurate modeling of large space systems is the most important element of the identification process. Large flexible structures are non-linear and infinite dimensional systems with highly coupled parameters and low frequency packed modes. In addition, these systems are subject to stochastic and time-varying disturbances, they have structural parameters which can vary due to on-orbit assembly deployment, and operations. These systems are generally; however, represented by constant coefficient, finite order differential equations. The non-linearities, coupling and noise effects are also often neglected. Moreover, identification experiment designs which lead to highly complex optimization problems usually require the simultaneous choice of ID algorithm, sensor, and actuator type and placement. On-orbit bandwidth and power restrictions on excitation, limited data window, and restrictions on sensor/actuator type, placement and number, has led to practical questions of implementations.

Hadaegh, Fred Y.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Paper #50 Preliminary Sizing of Active Magnetic Bearings for sCO2 Waste-Heat Recovery Application

The team of Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) and GE Vernova (GE) is executing a project developing conceptual designs of high-temperature active magnetic bearings (AMBs) for sCO2 machinery applications. The goals of the project are to develop conceptual designs for radial and thrust AMBs capable of operating in sCO2 environments up to 1000°F. A waste-heat recovery (WHR) application with hermetic machinery is used as a reference case to apply AMBs. This application was previously investigated to compare hermetic machinery enabled by process-lubricated bearings and high-speed motors/generators with traditional machinery configurations using oil-lubricated bearings, gearboxes, and grid-frequency electric machines. In this paper, AMBs are sized for the WHR application machinery. Load capacity estimates are made using first-principle-derived formulas that consider operation at elevated temperatures. Estimates of linearized AMB system coefficients are also made to aid future controller development. Rotor models are developed that account for AMB rotor geometry and housing space requirements. Rotordynamics studies are performed to identify reasonable target values for closed-loop AMB stiffness and closed-loop AMB damping. These target values will be used in future control studies.

Lipham, Robert↗
DOE OSTI2021

CFD modeling of pre-spark heat release in a boosted direct-injection spark-ignition engine

Accurate predictions of low-temperature heat release (LTHR) are critical for modeling auto-ignition processes in internal combustion engines. While LTHR is typically obscured by deflagration, extremely late ignition phasing can lead to LTHR prior to the spark, a behavior known as pre-spark heat release (PSHR). In this research, PSHR in a boosted direct-injection spark-ignition engine was studied using 3-D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and detailed chemical kinetics. The turbulent combustion was modeled via a hybrid approach that incorporates the G-equation model for tracking the turbulent flame front, and the well-stirred reactor model with detailed chemistry for assessing the low-temperature reactions in unburnt gas. Simulations were conducted using Co-Optima alkylate and E30 fuels at operating conditions characterized by different PSHR intensities. The predicted in-cylinder pressure and heat release rate were found to agree well with experiments. It was found the estimate of previous-cycle trapped residuals is of utmost importance for capturing PSHR correctly. A simulation best practice was developed which keeps the detailed chemistry solver active throughout the entire simulation, allowing to track the evolution of intermediate species from one cycle to the next. Following the validation, the dynamics of PSHR were analyzed in detail employing the pressure-temperature (P-T) trajectory framework. It was shown that PSHR correlated with the first-stage ignition delay of the fuel, hence showing close relation to the in-cylinder P-T trajectory and the chemical kinetics. Besides, it was indicated that LTHR is a self-limiting process that has the effect of attenuating the thermal stratification in the combustion chamber. Furthermore, it was observed the occurrence of PSHR caused the P-T trajectory of end-gas to overlap with the negative temperature coefficient region of the fuel’s ignition-delay maps. This effect was more significant in the fuel-rich regions where engine knock tendency would be generally higher, with potential implications on knock control and mitigation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Underestimates of Grassland Gross Primary Production in MODIS Standard Products

As the biggest carbon flux of terrestrial ecosystems from photosynthesis, gross primary productivity (GPP) is an important indicator in understanding the carbon cycle and biogeochemical process of terrestrial ecosystems. Despite advances in remote sensing-based GPP modeling, spatial and temporal variations of GPP are still uncertain especially under extreme climate conditions such as droughts. As the only official products of global spatially explicit GPP, MOD17A2H (GPP MOD ) has been widely used to assess the variations of carbon uptake of terrestrial ecosystems. However, systematic assessment of its performance has rarely been conducted especially for the grassland ecosystems where inter-annual variability is high. Based on a collection of GPP datasets (GPP EC ) from a global network of eddy covariance towers (FluxNet), we compared GPP MOD and GPP EC at all FluxNet grassland sites with more than five years of observations. We evaluated the performance and robustness of GPP MOD in different grassland biomes (tropical, temperate, and alpine) by using a bootstrapping method for calculating 95% confident intervals (CI) for the linear regression slope, coefficients of determination (R 2 ), and root mean square errors (RMSE). We found that GPP MOD generally underestimated GPP by about 34% across all biomes despite a significant relationship (R 2 = 0.66 (CI, 0.63–0.69), RMSE = 2.46 (2.33–2.58) g Cm -2 day -1 ) for the three grassland biomes. GPP MOD had varied performances with R2 values of 0.72 (0.68–0.75) (temperate), 0.64 (0.59–0.68) (alpine), and 0.40 (0.27–0.52) (tropical). Thus, GPP MOD performed better in low GPP situations (e.g., temperate grassland type), which further indicated that GPP MOD underestimated GPP. The underestimation of GPP could be partly attributed to the biased maximum light use efficiency (ε max ) values of different grassland biomes. The uncertainty of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) and the water scalar based on the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) could have other reasons for the underestimation. Therefore, more accurate estimates of GPP for different grassland biomes should consider improvements in ε max , FPAR, and the VPD scalar. Our results suggest that the community should be cautious when using MODIS GPP products to examine spatial and temporal variations of carbon fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

ON THE MAGNETIC AND ENERGY CHARACTERISTICS OF RECURRENT HOMOLOGOUS JETS FROM AN EMERGING FLUX

In this paper, we present the detailed analysis of recurrent homologous jets originating from an emerging negative magnetic flux at the edge of an active region. The observed jets show multithermal features. Their evolution shows high consistence with the characteristic parameters of the emerging flux, suggesting that with more free magnetic energy, the eruptions tend to be more violent, frequent, and blowout-like. The average temperature, average electron number density, and axial speed are found to be similar for different jets, indicating that they should have been formed by plasmas from similar origins. Statistical analysis of the jets and their footpoint region conditions reveals a strong positive relationship between the footpoint region total 131 Å intensity enhancement and jets’ length/width. Stronger linearly positive relationships also exist between the total intensity enhancement/thermal energy of the footpoint regions and jets’ mass/kinetic/thermal energy, with higher cross-correlation coefficients. All the above results together confirm the direct relationship between the magnetic reconnection and the jets and validate the important role of magnetic reconnection in transporting large amounts of free magnetic energy into jets. It is also suggested that there should be more free energy released during the magnetic reconnection of blowout than of standard jet events.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2012

Atomic Data for the CHIANTI Database

The CHIANTI spectral code consists of an atomic database and a suite of computer programs to calculate the optically thin spectrum of astrophysical objects and to carry out spectroscopic plasma diagnostics. The database includes atomic energy levels, wavelengths, radiative transition rates, collisional excitation, ionization and recombination rate coefficients, as well as data to calculate free-free, free-bound and two-photon continuum emission. In recent years, we have been pursuing a program to calculate atomic data for ions whose lines have been observed in astrophysical spectra but have been neglected in the literature, and to provide CHIANTI with all the data necessary to predict line intensities. There are two types of such ions: those for which calculations are available for low-energy configurations but not for high-energy configurations (i.e., C-like, N-like, O-like systems), and ions that have never or only seldom been studied. This poster will summarize the current status of this project and indicate the future activities .

Bhatia, Anand K.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Optimal Recursive Digital Filters for Active Bending Stabilization

In the design of flight control systems for large flexible boosters, it is common practice to utilize active feedback control of the first lateral structural bending mode so as to suppress transients and reduce gust loading. Typically, active stabilization or phase stabilization is achieved by carefully shaping the loop transfer function in the frequency domain via the use of compensating filters combined with the frequency response characteristics of the nozzle/actuator system. In this paper we present a new approach for parameterizing and determining optimal low-order recursive linear digital filters so as to satisfy phase shaping constraints for bending and sloshing dynamics while simultaneously maximizing attenuation in other frequency bands of interest, e.g. near higher frequency parasitic structural modes. By parameterizing the filter directly in the z-plane with certain restrictions, the search space of candidate filter designs that satisfy the constraints is restricted to stable, minimum phase recursive low-pass filters with well-conditioned coefficients. Combined with optimal output feedback blending from multiple rate gyros, the present approach enables rapid and robust parametrization of autopilot bending filters to attain flight control performance objectives. Numerical results are presented that illustrate the application of the present technique to the development of rate gyro filters for an exploration-class multi-engined space launch vehicle.

Orr, Jeb S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evanescent and inertial-like waves in rigidly rotating odd viscous liquids

Three-dimensional non-rotating odd viscous liquids give rise to Taylor columns and support axisymmetric inertial-like waves ( J. Fluid Mech ., vol. 973, 2023, A30). When an odd viscous liquid is subjected to rigid-body rotation however, there arise in addition a plethora of other phenomena that need to be clarified. In this paper, we show that three-dimensional incompressible or two-dimensional compressible odd viscous liquids, rotating rigidly with angular velocity 𝛺, give rise to both oscillatory and evanescent inertial-like waves or a combination thereof (which we call of mixed type) that can be non-axisymmetric. By evanescent, we mean that along the radial direction, typically when moving away from a solid boundary, the velocity field decreases exponentially. These waves precess in a prograde or retrograde manner with respect to the rotating frame. The oscillatory and evanescent waves resemble respectively the body and wall-modes observed in (non-odd) rotating Rayleigh–Bénard convection ( J. Fluid Mech ., vol. 248, 1993, pp. 583–604). We show that the three types of waves (wall, body or mixed) can be classified with respect to pairs of planar wavenumbers 𝜅 which are complex, real or a combination, respectively. Experimentally, by observing the precession rate of the patterns, it would be possible to determine the largely unknown values of the odd viscosity coefficients. This formulation recovers as special cases recent studies of equatorial or topological waves in two-dimensional odd viscous liquids which provided examples of the bulk–interface correspondence at frequencies 𝜔 < 2⁢𝛺. We finally point out that the two- and three-dimensional problems are formally equivalent. Their difference then lies in the way data propagate along characteristic rays in three dimensions, which we demonstrate by classifying the resulting Poincaré–Cartan equations.

Mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2021

Substrate Partitioning into Protein Macromolecular Frameworks for Enhanced Catalytic Turnover

Spatial partitioning of chemical processes is an important attribute of many biological systems, the effect of which is reflected in the high efficiency of enzymes found within otherwise chaotic cellular environments. Barriers, often provided through the formation of compartments or phase segregation, gate the access of macromolecules and small molecules within the cell and provide an added level of metabolic control. Taking inspiration from nature, we have designed virus-like particles (VLPs) as nanoreactor compartments that sequester enzyme catalysts and have used these as building blocks to construct 3D protein macromolecular framework (PMF) materials, which are structurally characterized using small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS). Additionally, the highly charged PMFs form a separate phase in suspension, and by tuning the ionic strength, we show positively charged molecules preferentially partition into the PMF, while negatively charged molecules are excluded. This molecular partitioning was exploited to tune the catalytic activity of enzymes enclosed within the individual particles in the PMF, the results of which showed that positively charged substrates had turnover rates that were 8500× faster than their negatively charged counterparts. Moreover, the catalytic PMF led to cooperative behavior resulting in charge dependent trends opposite to those observed with individual P22 nanoreactor particles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Attribution of Snowpack Errors to Simulated Temperature and Precipitation in E3SMv1 Over the Contiguous United States

Abstract Snow water equivalent (SWE), temperature, and precipitation biases and trends are evaluated in the atmosphere‐land simulations of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1) in comparison to the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) and two other models using the ground measurement‐based University of Arizona (UA) snow product. SWE, temperature, and precipitation biases are highest in magnitude in the Western contiguous United States (CONUS). SWE errors are attributed to temperature and precipitation through multiple linear regressions of normalized errors, the coefficients of which represent the sensitivities to temperature and precipitation errors. SWE errors are more sensitive to temperature errors throughout the CONUS. Model SWE and temperature trends are generally opposite from UA product trends in the Western CONUS. SWE trend errors are also attributed to temperature and precipitation trend errors using multiple linear regressions of normalized trend errors. SWE trend errors are more sensitive to those of precipitation at higher elevations (>1,500 m) in the Western CONUS in these simulations. Thus, the sensitivity to temperature and precipitation differ for SWE errors and its trend errors. Furthermore, the SWE trend errors are more sensitive to temperature and precipitation in the atmosphere‐ocean coupled simulations in which the atmosphere‐land is coupled to an active ocean model. These results suggest that both errors in simulated temperature and precipitation contribute to SWE errors.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2018

An Equivalent Time-Variant Storage Model to Harness EV Flexibility: Forecast and Aggregation

The demand for vehicle charging will necessitate large investments in power distribution, transmission, and generation. However, this demand is often also flexible in time, and can be actively managed to reduce the needed investments, and to better integrate renewable electricity. Harnessing this flexibility requires forecasting and controlling electric vehicle (EV) charging at thousands of stations. In this work, we address the problem of forecasting and management of the aggregate flexible demand from tens to thousands of EV supply equipment (EVSEs). First, it presents an equivalent time-variant storage model for flexible demand at an aggregation of EVSEs. The proposed model is generalizable to different markets, and also to different flexible loads. Model parameters representing multiple EVSEs can be easily aggregated by summation, and forecasted using autoregressive models. The forecastability of uncontrolled demand and storage parameters is evaluated using data from 1341 nonresidential EVSEs located in Northern California. The median coefficient of variation is as low as 24% for the forecast of uncontrolled demand at the highest aggregation and 10-15% for the storage parameters. The benefits of aggregation and forecastability are demonstrated using an energy arbitrage scenario. Purchasing energy day ahead is less expensive than in the real-time market, but relies on a uncertain forecast of charging availability. The results show that the forecastability significantly improves for larger aggregations. This helps the aggregator make a better forecast, and decreases the cost of charging in comparison to an uncontrolled case by 60% with respect to an oracle scenario.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗