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DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of Previously Classified White Dwarf–Main-sequence Binaries Using Data from the APOGEE Survey

We present analyses of near-infrared spectroscopic data from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) survey for 45 previously confirmed or candidate white dwarf–main-sequence (WDMS) binaries identified by the optical Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and LAMOST surveys. Among these 45 systems, we classify three as having red giant primaries in the LAMOST sample and 14 as young stellar object contaminants in the photometrically identified SDSS sample. From among the subsample of 28 systems that we confirm to have MS primaries, we derive and place limits on orbital periods and velocity amplitudes for 14. Seven systems have significant velocity variations that warrant a post-common-envelope (PCE) binary classification, four of which are newly classified, three of which are newly confirmed, and five for which we can derive full orbital parameters. If confirmed, one of these newly discovered systems (2M14544500+4626456) will have the second-longest orbital period reported for a typical compact PCE WDMS binary (P = 15.1 days). In addition to the seven above, we also recover and characterize with APOGEE data the well-known PCE WDMS systems EG UMa and HZ 9. We also investigate the overall metallicity distribution of the WDMS sample, which is a parameter space not often explored for these systems. Of note, we find one system (2M14244053+4929580) to be extremely metal-poor ([Fe/H] = − 1.42) relative to the rest of the near-solar sample. Additionally, the PCE systems in our sample are found to be, on average, higher in metallicity than their wide-binary counterparts, though we caution that with this small number of systems, the sample may not be representative of the overall distribution of WDMS systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2015

Temperature-dependent mechanical deformation of silicon at the nanoscale: Phase transformation versus defect propagation

This study uses high-temperature nanoindentation coupled with in situ electrical measurements to investigate the temperature dependence (25–200 °C) of the phase transformation behavior of diamond cubic (dc) silicon at the nanoscale. Along with in situ indentation and electrical data, ex situ characterizations, such as Raman and cross-sectional transmission electron microscopy, have been used to reveal the indentation-induced deformation mechanisms. We find that phase transformation and defect propagation within the crystal lattice are not mutually exclusive deformation processes at elevated temperature. Both can occur at temperatures up to 150 °C but to different extents, depending on the temperature and loading conditions. For nanoindentation, we observe that phase transformation is dominant below 100 °C but that deformation by twinning along (111) planes dominates at 150 °C and 200 °C. This work, therefore, provides clear insight into the temperature dependent deformation mechanisms in dc-Si at the nanoscale and helps to clarify previous inconsistencies in the literature.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

NASA NTRS1994

Determining the response of sea level to atmospheric pressure forcing using TOPEX/POSEIDON data

The static response of sea level to the forcing of atmospheric pressure, the so-called inverted barometer (IB) effect, is investigated using TOPEX/POSEIDON data. This response, characterized by the rise and fall of sea level to compensate for the change of atmospheric pressure at a rate of -1 cm/mbar, is not associated with any ocean currents and hence is normally treated as an error to be removed from sea level observation. Linear regression and spectral transfer function analyses are applied to sea level and pressure to examine the validity of the IB effect. In regions outside the tropics, the regression coefficient is found to be consistently close to the theoretical value except for the regions of western boundary currents, where the mesoscale variability interferes with the IB effect. The spectral transfer function shows near IB response at periods of 30 degrees is -0.84 +/- 0.29 cm/mbar (1 standard deviation). The deviation from = 1 cm /mbar is shown to be caused primarily by the effect of wind forcing on sea level, based on multivariate linear regression model involving both pressure and wind forcing. The regression coefficient for pressure resulting from the multivariate analysis is -0.96 +/- 0.32 cm/mbar. In the tropics the multivariate analysis fails because sea level in the tropics is primarily responding to remote wind forcing. However, after removing from the data the wind-forced sea level estimated by a dynamic model of the tropical Pacific, the pressure regression coefficient improves from -1.22 +/- 0.69 cm/mbar to -0.99 +/- 0.46 cm/mbar, clearly revealing an IB response. The result of the study suggests that with a proper removal of the effect of wind forcing the IB effect is valid in most of the open ocean at periods longer than 20 days and spatial scales larger than 500 km.

Fu, Lee-Lueng↗

DOE OSTI2015

Synthesis and characterization of La{sub 0.6}Sr{sub 0.4}Fe{sub 0.8}Cu{sub 0.2}O{sub 3−δ} oxide as cathode for Intermediate Temperature Solid Oxide Fuel Cells

Nanocrystalline La{sub 0.6}Sr{sub 0.4}Fe{sub 0.8}Cu{sub 0.2}O{sub 3−δ} (LSFCu) material was synthetized by combustion method using EDTA as fuel/chelating agent and NH{sub 4}NO{sub 3} as combustion promoter. Structural characterization using thermodiffraction data allowed to determine a reversible phase transition at 425 °C from a low temperature R-3c phase to a high temperature Pm-3m phase and to calculate the thermal expansion coefficient (TEC) of both phases. Important characteristics for cathode application as electronic conductivity and chemical compatibility with Ce{sub 0.9}Gd{sub 0.1}O{sub 2−δ} (CGO) electrolyte were evaluated. LSFCu presented a p-type conductor behavior with maximum conductivity of 135 S cm{sup −1} at 275 °C and showed a good stability with CGO electrolyte at high temperatures. This work confirmed that as prepared LSFCu has excellent microstructural characteristics and an electrical conductivity between 100 and 60 S cm{sup −1} in the 500–700 °C range which is sufficiently high to work as intermediate temperature Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (IT-SOFCs) cathode. However a change in the thermal expansion coefficient consistent with a small oxygen loss process may affect the electrode-electrolyte interface during fabrication and operation of a SOFC. - Graphical abstract: Nanocrystalline La{sub 0.6}Sr{sub 0.4}Fe{sub 0.8}Cu{sub 0.2}O{sub 3−δ} was prepared by gel combustion and characterized by X-ray thermodiffraction and its conductivity was determined. The phase shows a reversible rhombohedral to cubic structural phase transition at 425 °C and a semiconductor to metallic phase transition at 275 °C. - Highlights: • LSFCu was prepared by gel combustion route using EDTA and NH{sub 4}NO{sub 3}. • LSFCu shows a reversible phase transition at 425 °C from R-3c to Pm-3m phase. • The sample has a maximum conductivity value of 135 S cm{sup −1} at 275 °C. • LSFCu shows a good chemical compatibility with CGO at 900 °C.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Application of an Embedded Fracture and Borehole Modeling Approach to the Understanding of EGS Collab Experiment 1

EGS Collab is a series of meso-scale experiments and associated numerical simulation activities being funded by the United States Department of Energy, Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) to investigate enhanced geothermal system processes under in-situ stress and slightly elevated temperature conditions. This project is designed to provide scientists and engineers with immediate access to impermeable rock at scales larger than possible in the laboratory, but generally smaller than those for commercial production. Immediate access to rock is provided via the existing drifts of the former Homestake Gold Mine, now operated as the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota. The objectives of the EGS Collab project are to develop well controlled fracture networks between injector and producer boreholes using normal and shear stimulation for permeability enhancement. The first experimental site was located off the West Access drift on the 4850 Level (4850 feet below ground surface) in phyllite of the Precambrian Poorman formation, and involved the creation of a fracture network comprising a combination of hydraulic and natural fractures. A second experimental site is now being considered near the battery alcove on the 4100 Level in amphibolite and rhyolite of the Yates Unit. Data generated during these experiments will be compared against predictions of a suite of computer codes specifically designed to solve problems involving coupled thermal, hydrological, geomechanical, and geochemical processes. Comparisons between experimental and numerical simulation results will provide code developers with direction for improvements and verification of process models, build confidence in the suite of available numerical tools, and ultimately identify critical future development needs for the geothermal modeling community. Moreover, conducting thorough comparisons of models, modelling approaches, measurement approaches and measured data, via the EGS Collab project, will serve to identify techniques that are most likely to succeed at the Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE), the GTO’s flagship EGS research effort. Experiment 1 has comprised a series of successful tests, including a long-term chilled-water circulation test, but the testbed has two atypical EGS elements. Active ventilation in the adjacent drift over a 50-year period cooled the testbed rock mass and hydraulic fracturing intersected monitoring boreholes making them conduits for fluid flow. Numerical simulations executed in support of the design of the EGS Collab Experiment 1, computed a radial temperature distribution and stress gradient orthogonal to the drift axis, resulting in the forecast of an oblong hydraulic fracture geometry, extended in the direction of the drift from the stimulation borehole. This paper describes the numerical simulation of long-term chilled-water circulation test with an embedded fracture and borehole modeling approach. The principal objective of the simulation work is show agreement between experimental observations in terms of production fluid temperatures, monitoring borehole temperatures, injection and production pressures, and tracer recoveries using a single conceptual model for the fracture network, using characterization and monitoring data generally available for EGS. A secondary objective is to improve the numerical simulation result comparisons with additional data available from the broader monitoring equipment within the testbed versus deeper, hotter, and more remote EGS. One complicating factor for comparisons between the numerical simulation results and experimental observations, is the Joule-Thomson heating associated with large pressure drops across the fracture network.

numerical simulation, embedded fractures and boreh↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of Composite Airframe Dynamic Impact Modeling Using Hawker 4000 Fuselage Drop Test Data

Two drop tests of partial Hawker 4000 fuselage sections were conducted at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC) to characterize the response of representative composite aerospace structure to dynamic impact loads. Test conditions were selected to induce damage into the composite structure in order to study material failure within a composite fuselage and evaluate the capability of finite element (FE) model analysis to predict that failure. The tests were simulated using FE models which were generated to isolate the effect of developmental data availability on predictive capability. FE Models of the tested fuselage sections were generated using two limited data sets. The first model configuration was reverse engineered from the test article with no information related to design or fabrication details which would be known only by the manufacturer. The second model was generated from data provided by the manufacturer but without additional material characterization test data. Models were developed using these methodologies for both fuselage sections tested. Correlation of each model to the tests conducted was evaluated in terms of damage, deformation, and cabin acceleration measurements. Correlation between the developed models and the tested fuselage sections showed that the reverse engineered model predicted the composite damage and cabin acceleration measured during test though it was limited due to lack of detail in the composite layup changes through the structure. The model developed using manufacturer specifications did not predict damage, due to limited material and component model characterization data, but it did predict acceleration on par with the reverse engineered model. Model capability and limitation sources identified were verified through correlation of a final model which was developed by combining the individual data sets. The combined model demonstrated that the addition of calibrated composite material models to accurate composite layup definitions and detailed geometry led to improved correlation of damage and acceleration response within the composite fuselage structures.

Crashworthiness↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluation of Composite Airframe Dynamic Impact Modeling Using Hawker 4000 Fuselage Drop Test Data

Crashworthiness↗

NASA NTRS2011

Effective Albedo of Vegetated Terrain at L-Band

This paper derives an explicit expression for an effective albedo of vegetated terrain from the zero- and multiple- order radiative transfer (RT) model comparison. The formulation establishes a direct physical link between the effective vegetation parameterization and the theoretical description of absorption and scattering within the canopy. The paper will present an evaluation of the derived albedo for corn canopies with data taken during an experiment at Alabama A&M Winfield A. Thomas Agricultural Research Station near Huntsville, Alabama in June, 1998. The test site consisted of two 50-m x 60-m plots - one with a bare surface and the other with grass cover - and four 30-m x 50-m plots of corn at different planting densities. One corn field was planted at a full density of 9.5 plants/sq m while the others were planted at 1/3, 1/2 and 2/3 of the full density. The fields were observed with a truck-mounted L-band radiometer at incident angle of 15 degree for the period of two weeks. Soil moisture (SM) changed daily due to irrigation and natural rainfall. Variations in gravimetric SM from 18 % to 34 % were seen during this period. Ground truth data, including careful characterization of the corn size and orientation statistics, and its dielectric, was also collected and used to simulate the effective albedo for the vegetation. The single-scattering albedo is defined as the fractional power scattered from individual vegetation constituents with respect to canopy extinction. It represents single-scattering properties of vegetation elements only, and is independent of ground properties. The values of the albedo get higher when there is dense vegetation (i.e. forest, mature corn, etc.) with scatterers, such as branches and trunks (or stalks in the case of corn), which are large with respect to the wavelength. This large albedo leads to a reduction in brightness temperature in the zero-order RT solution (known as tau-omega model). Higher-order multiple-scattering RT solutions are required for proper representation of scattering within vegetation. In this paper, an expression for an effective albedo for the whole canopy including the ground is derived for use in the zero-order RT model-based SM retrieval. This effective albedo takes into account of all the processes taking place within the canopy, including multiple-scattering. This new formulation will be presented and its importance for microwave SM retrieval will be evaluated for corn canopies in conjunction with the detailed ground truth data obtained during the experiment at Alabama in 1998. Emphasis will be placed on examining how the radiometer response to SM is modified by the corn canopy scattering under different field conditions. A semi-empirical parameterization of the effective albedo will be investigated through analysis of SM and vegetation water content effects on the effective albedo.

Kurum, Mehmet↗

NASA NTRS2004

Characterizing Oscillatory Bursts in Single-Trial EEG Data

Oscillatory bursts in numerous bands ranging from low (theta) to high frequencies (e.g., gamma) undoubtedly play an important role in cortical dynamics. Largely because of the inadequacy of existing analytic techniques. however, oscillatory bursts and their role in cortical processing remains poorly understood. To study oscillatory bursts effectively one must be able to isolate them and characterize them in the single trial. We describe a series of straightforward analysis techniques that produce useful indices of burst characteristics. First, stimulus-evoked responses are estimated using Differentially Variable Component Analysis (dVCA), and are subtracted from the single-trial. The single-trial characteristics of the evoked responses are stored to identify possible correlations with burst activity. Time-frequency (T-F), or wavelet, analyses are then applied to the single trial residuals. While T-F plots have been used in recent studies to identify and isolate bursts, we go further by fitting each burst in the T-F plot with a two-dimensional Gaussian. This provides a set of burst characteristics, such as, center time. burst duration, center frequency. frequency dispersion. and amplitude, all of which contribute to the accurate characterization of the individual burst. The burst phase can also be estimated. Burst characteristics can be quantified with several standard techniques (e.g.. histogramming and clustering), as well as Bayesian techniques (e.g., blocking) to allow a more parametric description analysis of the characteristics of oscillatory bursts, and the relationships of specific parameters to cortical excitability and stimulus integration.

Knuth, K. H.↗

DOE OSTI2016

TU-AB-BRC-03: Accurate Tissue Characterization for Monte Carlo Dose Calculation Using Dual-and Multi-Energy CT Data

Purpose: To develop a general method for human tissue characterization with dual-and multi-energy CT and evaluate its performance in determining elemental compositions and the associated proton stopping power relative to water (SPR) and photon mass absorption coefficients (EAC). Methods: Principal component analysis is used to extract an optimal basis of virtual materials from a reference dataset of tissues. These principal components (PC) are used to perform two-material decomposition using simulated DECT data. The elemental mass fraction and the electron density in each tissue is retrieved by measuring the fraction of each PC. A stoichiometric calibration method is adapted to the technique to make it suitable for clinical use. The present approach is compared with two others: parametrization and three-material decomposition using the water-lipid-protein (WLP) triplet. Results: Monte Carlo simulations using TOPAS for four reference tissues shows that characterizing them with only two PC is enough to get a submillimetric precision on proton range prediction. Based on the simulated DECT data of 43 references tissues, the proposed method is in agreement with theoretical values of protons SPR and low-kV EAC with a RMS error of 0.11% and 0.35%, respectively. In comparison, parametrization and WLP respectively yield RMS errors of 0.13% and 0.29% on SPR, and 2.72% and 2.19% on EAC. Furthermore, the proposed approach shows potential applications for spectral CT. Using five PC and five energy bins reduces the SPR RMS error to 0.03%. Conclusion: The proposed method shows good performance in determining elemental compositions from DECT data and physical quantities relevant to radiotherapy dose calculation and generally shows better accuracy and unbiased results compared to reference methods. The proposed method is particularly suitable for Monte Carlo calculations and shows promise in using more than two energies to characterize human tissue with CT.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1989

Characterization of structural connections using free and forced response test data

The accurate prediction of system dynamic response often has been limited by deficiencies in existing capabilities to characterize connections adequately. Connections between structural components often are complex mechanically, and difficult to accurately model analytically. Improved analytical models for connections are needed to improve system dynamic preditions. A procedure for identifying physical connection properties from free and forced response test data is developed, then verified utilizing a system having both a linear and nonlinear connection. Connection properties are computed in terms of physical parameters so that the physical characteristics of the connections can better be understood, in addition to providing improved input for the system model. The identification procedure is applicable to multi-degree of freedom systems, and does not require that the test data be measured directly at the connection locations.

Lawrence, Charles↗

NASA NTRS1989

Characterization of structural connections using free and forced response test data

The accurate prediction of system dynamic response often has been limited by deficiencies in existing capabilities to characterize connections adequately. Connections between structural components often are complex mechanically, and difficult to accurately model analytically. Improved analytical models for connections are needed to improve system dynamic predictions. A procedure for identifying physical connection properties from free and forced response test data is developed, then verified utilizing a system having both a linear and nonlinear connection. Connection properties are computed in terms of physical parameters so that the physical characteristics of the connections can better be understood, in addition to providing improved input for the system model. The identification procedure is applicable to multi-degree of freedom systems, and does not require that the test data be measured directly at the connection locations.

Lawrence, C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

The POINTER Imaging baseline cohort: Associations between multimodal neuroimaging biomarkers, cardiovascular health, and cognition

Abstract INTRODUCTION The U.S. Study to Protect Brain Health Through Lifestyle Intervention to Reduce Risk (U.S. POINTER) is evaluating lifestyle interventions in older adults at risk for cognitive decline and dementia. Here we characterize the baseline data set of the POINTER Imaging ancillary study. METHODS Participants underwent health and cognitive assessments and neuroimaging with multimodal positron emission tomography (PET) (beta‐amyloid [Aβ] and tau) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Framingham risk score (FRS) was used to quantify cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. RESULTS A total of 1052 participants (31% from underrepresented ethnoracial groups) were enrolled. Compared to Aβ−, Aβ+ (29%) participants were older, had higher apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 carriage rate and white matter hyperintensity volume, and greater temporal tau. FRS was related to MRI measures, but not AD biomarkers. FRS and tau had independent effects on cognition. DISCUSSION In this heterogenous, at‐risk cohort, CVD risk was related to more abnormal brain structure and poorer cognition, representing a putative non‐AD (Alzheimer's disease) pathway to brain injury and cognitive decline. Highlights The U.S. Study to Protect Brain Health Through Lifestyle Intervention to Reduce Risk (U.S. POINTER) cohort is enriched for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and poor lifestyle POINTER Imaging collected multimodal neuroimaging data in this unique, at‐risk cohort Amyloid burden was related to age, apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 carriage, and measures of disease progression Associations between amyloid and tau, and tau and cognition, were relatively weak CVD risk and tau pathology were independently related to memory

Neurosciences & Neurology↗

DOE OSTI2016

Application of morphological synthesis for understanding electrode microstructure evolution as a function of applied charge/discharge cycles

Morphological analysis and synthesis operations were employed for analysis of electrode microstructure transformations and evolution accompanying the application of charge/discharge cycles to electrochemical storage systems (batteries). Using state-of-the-art morphological algorithms, it was possible to predict microstructure evolution in porous Si electrodes for Li-ion batteries with sufficient accuracy. Algorithms for image analyses (segmentation, feature extraction, and 3D-reconstructions using 2D-images) were also developed. Altogether, these techniques could be considered supplementary to phase-field mesoscopic approach to microstructure evolution that is based upon clear and definitive changes in the appearance of microstructure. However, unlike in phase-field, the governing equations for morphological approach are geometry-, not physics-based. Similar non-physics based approach to understanding different phenomena was attempted with the introduction of cellular automata. It is anticipated that morphological synthesis and analysis will represent a useful supplementary tool to phase-field and will render assistance to unraveling the underlying microstructure-property relationships. The paper contains data on electrochemical characterization of different electrode materials that was conducted in parallel to morphological study.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2014

Dietary antioxidant and anti-inflammatory intake modifies the effect of cadmium exposure on markers of systemic inflammation and oxidative stress

Chronic cadmium exposure may cause disease through induction of systemic oxidative stress and inflammation. Factors that mitigate cadmium toxicity and could serve as interventions in exposed populations have not been well characterized. We used data from the 2003–2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey to quantify diet's role in modifying associations between cadmium exposure and oxidative stress and inflammation. We created a composite antioxidant and anti-inflammatory diet score (ADS) by ranking participants by quintile of intake across a panel of 19 nutrients. We identified associations and effect modification between ADS, urinary cadmium, and markers of oxidative stress and inflammation by multiple linear regression. An interquartile range increase in urinary cadmium was associated with a 47.5%, 8.8%, and 3.7% increase in C-reactive protein (CRP), gamma glutamyl transferase (GGT), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP), respectively. An interquartile range increase in ADS was associated with an 7.4%, 3.3%, 5.2%, and 2.5% decrease in CRP, GGT, ALP, and total white blood cell count respectively, and a 3.0% increase in serum bilirubin. ADS significantly attenuated the association between cadmium exposure, CRP and ALP. Dietary interventions may provide a route to reduce the impact of cadmium toxicity on the population level. - Highlights: • Cadmium may cause chronic disease through oxidative stress or inflammation. • We developed a score to quantify dietary antioxidant and anti-inflammatory intake. • Cadmium was associated with markers of oxidative stress and inflammation. • Antioxidant and anti-inflammatory intake mitigated the effects of cadmium exposure. • Dietary interventions may be effective against chronic cadmium toxicity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Synergistic data analytics for electromechanical oscillation in electric power systems

Accurate real-time estimation of the four electromechanical oscillation properties, i.e., dominant oscillation modes, mode shapes, participation factors, and coherent groups, is of great importance to assess and mitigate potential electromechanical oscillations in interconnected power systems. While eigenvalue analysis can realize such estimation, it requires precise linearized dynamic models and accurate parameters, which are highly difficult to obtain in practice. Data fusion-based modal estimation methods can extract the properties of electromechanical oscillations from measurement data without the power system model and parameters, but most of the time only one or two property assessments can be accomplished each time. To overcome this challenge, this paper presents a synergistic data analytics solution to characterize the dynamic behaviors of electromechanical oscillations from real-time measurement data. Here, the proposed method uses optimized variable projection, and it is capable of estimating all four electromechanical oscillation behavior properties from measured responses. Case studies are performed using the simulated measurement data of a 16-generator 68-bus test system and the field measurements collected by the PMUs deployed in the Yunnan Power Grid. The results demonstrate that the proposed synergistic data analytics solution can achieve satisfactory performance in capturing the properties of electromechanical oscillations from measurement data and exhibit strong robustness against measurement noise when compared with existing measurement-based methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Evaluation of deep vadose zone contaminant flux into groundwater: Approach and case study

Not Available

Oostrom, M.↗

DOE OSTI2015

An algebraic method for constructing stable and consistent autoregressive filters

In this paper, we introduce an algebraic method to construct stable and consistent univariate autoregressive (AR) models of low order for filtering and predicting nonlinear turbulent signals with memory depth. By stable, we refer to the classical stability condition for the AR model. By consistent, we refer to the classical consistency constraints of Adams–Bashforth methods of order-two. One attractive feature of this algebraic method is that the model parameters can be obtained without directly knowing any training data set as opposed to many standard, regression-based parameterization methods. It takes only long-time average statistics as inputs. The proposed method provides a discretization time step interval which guarantees the existence of stable and consistent AR model and simultaneously produces the parameters for the AR models. In our numerical examples with two chaotic time series with different characteristics of decaying time scales, we find that the proposed AR models produce significantly more accurate short-term predictive skill and comparable filtering skill relative to the linear regression-based AR models. These encouraging results are robust across wide ranges of discretization times, observation times, and observation noise variances. Finally, we also find that the proposed model produces an improved short-time prediction relative to the linear regression-based AR-models in forecasting a data set that characterizes the variability of the Madden–Julian Oscillation, a dominant tropical atmospheric wave pattern.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗