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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Technical note: Uncertainties in eddy covariance CO 2 fluxes in a semiarid sagebrush ecosystem caused by gap-filling approaches

Abstract. Gap-filling eddy covariance CO2 fluxes is challenging at dryland sites due to small CO2 fluxes. Here, four machine learning (ML) algorithms including artificial neural network (ANN), k-nearest neighbors (KNNs), random forest (RF), and support vector machine (SVM) are employed and evaluated for gap-filling CO2 fluxes over a semiarid sagebrush ecosystem with different lengths of artificial gaps. The ANN and RF algorithms outperform the KNN and SVM in filling gaps ranging from hours to days, with the RF being more time efficient than the ANN. Performances of the ANN and RF are largely degraded for extremely long gaps of 2 months. In addition, our results suggest that there is no need to fill the daytime and nighttime net ecosystem exchange (NEE) gaps separately when using the ANN and RF. With the ANN and RF, the gap-filling-induced uncertainties in the annual NEE at this site are estimated to be within 16 g C m−2, whereas the uncertainties by the KNN and SVM can be as large as 27 g C m−2. To better fill extremely long gaps of a few months, we test a two-layer gap-filling framework based on the RF. With this framework, the model performance is improved significantly, especially for the nighttime data. Therefore, this approach provides an alternative in filling extremely long gaps to characterize annual carbon budgets and interannual variability in dryland ecosystems.

Yao, Jingyu↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data augmentation for disruption prediction via robust surrogate models

The goal of this work is to generate large statistically representative datasets to train machine learning models for disruption prediction provided by data from few existing discharges. Such a comprehensive training database is important to achieve satisfying and reliable prediction results in artificial neural network classifiers. Here, we aim for a robust augmentation of the training database for multivariate time series data using Student-t process regression. We apply Student-t process regression in a state space formulation via Bayesian filtering to tackle challenges imposed by outliers and noise in the training data set and to reduce the computational complexity. Thus, the method can also be used if the time resolution is high. We use an uncorrelated model for each dimension and impose correlations afterwards via coloring transformations. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on plasma diagnostics data of three different disruption classes from the DIII-D tokamak. To evaluate if the distribution of the generated data is similar to the training data, we additionally perform statistical analyses using methods from time series analysis, descriptive statistics, and classic machine learning clustering algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

ANALYSIS OF SAFETY IMPACTS FROM EXTERNAL FLOODING USING THE RISK-INFORMED SAFETY MARGIN CHARACTERIZATION (RISMC) TOOLKIT

The existing fleet of U.S. nuclear power plants is in the process of extending its lifetime and increasing the power generated from these plants via power uprates. In order to evaluate the impact of these factors on the safety of the plant, the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) project aims to provide insight to decision makers through a series of simulations of the plant dynamics for different initial conditions (e.g., probabilistic analysis and uncertainty quantification). This paper demonstrates how Idaho National Laboratory (INL) researchers use the RISMC Toolkit to investigate complex nuclear plant phenomena using RAVEN and RELAP-7. The analysis focused on a highly relevant topic currently facing some nuclear power plants – specifically flooding issues. This research and development looked at challenges to a hypothetical pressurized water reactor, including: (1) a potential loss of off-site power followed by the possible loss of all diesel generators (i.e., a station black-out event), (2) earthquake induced station-blackout, and (3) a potential earthquake induced tsunami flood. The analysis is performed by using a set of codes: a thermal-hydraulic code (RELAP-7), a flooding simulation tool (NEUTRINO) and a stochastic analysis tool (RAVEN) – these are currently under development at INL. Using RAVEN, we were able to perform multiple RELAP-7 simulation runs by changing specific parts of the model in order to reflect specific aspects of different scenarios, including both the failure and recovery of critical components. The simulation employed traditional statistical tools (such as Monte-Carlo sampling) and more advanced machine-learning based algorithms to perform uncertainty quantification in order to understand changes in system performance and limitations as a consequence of power uprate. Qualitative and quantitative results obtained gave a detailed picture of the issues associated with potential accident scenarios. These types of insights can provide useful material for decision makers to perform risk-informed margins management.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Laterally Primed Adaptive Resonance Theory

LAPART is an artificial neural network algorithm written in the Python programming language. The algorithm can learn patterns using multi-dimensional hyper boxes. It can also perfrom regression and classification calculations based on learned associations.

Jones, Christian Birk↗
DOE OSTI2020

SODA: a New Synthesis Infrastructure for Agile Hardware Design of Machine Learning Accelerators

Next generation systems, such as edge devices, will have to provide efficient processing of machine learning (ML) algorithms along several metrics, including energy, performance, area, and latency. However, the quickly evolving field of ML makes it extremely difficult to generate accelerators able to support a wide variety of algorithms. At the same time, designing accelerators in hardware description languages (HDLs) by hand is hard and time consuming, and does not allow quick exploration of the design space. This paper discusses the SODA synthesizer, an automated open source high-level ML framework-to-Verilog compiler targeting ML Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs) chiplets based on the LLVM infrastructure. The SODA synthesizers will allow implementing optimal designs by combining templated and fully tunable IPs and macros, and fully custom components generated through high-level synthesis. All these components will be provided through an extendable resource library, characterized with both commercial and open source logic design flows. Through a closed loop design space exploration engine, developers will be able to quickly explore their hardware designs along different dimension

Minutoli, Marco↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Forecasting of Generators Startups and Shutdowns in the MISO System Based on Random Forest

Solving security constrained unit commitment (SCUC) problems to plan an economical generation schedule for day-head electricity market has been an important research topic in recent years. Mixed integer programming method (MIP), the-state-of-art approach for solving SCUC problem, is known computationally hard when the number of binary status variables is large. In this paper, a machine learning-based algorithm - random forest (RF), was applied to forecast the startups (SU) and shutdowns (SD) hours of generators, based on historical hourly system condition observations in the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) system. The main purpose is to reduce the number of binary status variables, by fixing the SU/SD hours to a narrow range of high confidence. This would significantly reduce the size of the decision space, and therefore speed up SCUC solutions with reduced uncertainty.

Lin, Xinming↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scaling Building Energy Audits through Machine Learning Methods on Novel Drone Image Data

Building energy audits are time-consuming and labor-intensive. This paper describes a new method using machine learning (ML) techniques on novel data sources (drone images) to improve the identification of building characteristics and retrofit opportunities, and thereby reduce the effort for audits. The new ML method includes: (1) Building footprint extraction using line extraction, polygonization, and polygon-merging, (2) Building envelope extraction using PIX4d modeling software to reconstruct a building 3D model, (3) Visualization tool for viewing images from the 3D model, (4) Window-to-wall ratio (WWR) using state-of-art deep neural network semantic segmentation, (5) Envelope thermal anomaly detection using an unsupervised machine learning clustering algorithm, and (6) Rooftop energy equipment detection based on an object detection algorithm. The testing of this method involved a comparison of additional ML-generated information overlaid on current ‘state-of-practice’ audit and remote assessment baselines using evaluation metrics: labor time and associated cost, marginal benefits of using ML-generated information in workflows for audits and remote assessments, integration potential with existing processes and tools, and replicability/scalability of the method. In two test buildings in California that had comprehensive drawings and meter data available, the ML method effectively generated a building footprint, envelope, rooftop equipment, WWR, and locations of envelope thermal anomalies. Projected target segments of the ML method are sites with minimal drawings and energy data, and underserved sectors such as multistoried housing, disadvantaged communities, and schools for which the ML method can enable identification of building asset characteristics and prioritization of envelope retrofits and decentralized energy equipment retrofits.

Singh, Reshma↗
DOE OSTI2023

Time-drift Aware RF Optimization with Machine Learning Techniques

The Fermilab Linac delivers 400 MeV H- beam to the rest of the accelerator chain. Providing stable intensity, energy, and emittance is key since it directly affects downstream machines. To operate high current beam, accelerators must minimize uncontrolled particle loss; this can be accomplished by minimizing beam longitudinal emittance via RF parameter optimization. However, RF tuning is required daily since the resonance frequency of the accelerating cavities is affected by ambient temperature and humidity variations and thus drifts with time. In addition, the energy and phase space distribution of particles emerging from the ion source are subject to fluctuations. Such drift is not unique to Fermilab, but rather affects most laboratories. We are exploring machine learning (ML) algorithms for automated RF tuning for 2 objectives: optimization of Linac output energy and phase oscillation correction, with an emphasis on time-drift aware modeling that can account for conditions changing over time.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimental and Phenomenological Investigations of the MiniBooNE Anomaly

This thesis covers a range of experimental and theoretical efforts to elucidate the origin of the $4.8\sigma$ MiniBooNE low energy excess (LEE). We begin with the follow-up MicroBooNE experiment, which took data along the BNB from 2016 to 2021. This thesis specifically presents MicroBooNE's search for $\nu_e$ charged-current quasi-elastic (CCQE) interactions consistent with two-body scattering. The two-body CCQE analysis uses a novel reconstruction process, including a number of deep-learning-based algorithms, to isolate a sample of $\nu_e$ CCQE interaction candidates with $75\%$ purity. The analysis rules out an entirely $\nu_e$-based explanation of the MiniBooNE excess at the $2.4\sigma$ confidence level. We next perform a combined fit of MicroBooNE and MiniBooNE data to the popular $3+1$ model; even after the MicroBooNE results, allowed regions in $\Delta m^2$-$\sin^2 2_{\theta_{\mu e}}$ parameter space exist at the $3\sigma$ confidence level. This thesis also demonstrates that the MicroBooNE data are consistent with a $\overline{\nu}_e$-based explanation of the MiniBooNE LEE at the $<2\sigma$ confidence level. Next, we investigate a phenomenological explanation of the MiniBooNE excess combining the $3+1$ model with a dipole-coupled heavy neutral lepton (HNL). It is shown that a 500 MeV HNL can accommodate the energy and angular distributions of the LEE at the $2\sigma$ confidence level while avoiding stringent constraints derived from MINER$\nu$A elastic scattering data. Finally, we discuss the Coherent CAPTAIN-Mills experiment--a 10-ton light-based liquid argon detector at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The background rejection achieved from a novel Cherenkov-based reconstruction algorithm will enable world-leading sensitivity to a number of beyond-the-Standard Model physics scenarios, including dipole-coupled HNLs.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning Prediction of Fracture Toughness in Hydrogen-charged Stainless Steels

Austenitic stainless steels are structural materials utilized in tritium gas pressure boundaries since they are resistant to hydrogen isotope embrittlement [1-3]. However, exposure to tritium over long periods of time leads to tritium uptake which decays to result in helium ingrowth. This helium ingrowth results in further embrittlement effects which are synergistic with that from the hydrogen isotope [4]. Therefore, it is important for tritium facilities to understand the material limitations of stainless steel in this environment. The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) has available a large experimental data set of austenitic stainless steels which have been exposed to tritium environments for various lengths of time. With the availability of this data set, machine learning (ML) algorithms provide an opportunity to model the embrittlement of stainless steel due to the algorithm’s ability to identify patterns in data sets that are difficult and costly to identify in other manners [5]. Ultimately, the amount and quality of the available data is one defining force in the ability of a ML model to accurately predict the desired outputs. The models developed herein will illustrate the ability for the various algorithms to predict the change in fracture toughness in stainless steels due to hydrogen-isotope embrittlement.

Hoar, Eric T.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamic Model Agnostic Reliability Evaluation of Machine-Learning Models Integrated in Instrumentation & Control Systems

In recent years, the field of data-driven neural network-based machine learning (ML) algorithms has grown significantly and spurred research in its applicability to instrumentation and control systems. While they are promising in operational contexts, the trustworthiness of such algorithms is not adequately assessed. Failures of ML-integrated systems are poorly understood; the lack of comprehensive risk modeling can degrade the trustworthiness of these systems. In recent reports by the National Institute for Standards and Technology, trustworthiness in ML is a critical barrier to adoption and will play a vital role in intelligent systems' safe and accountable operation. Thus, in this work, we demonstrate a real-time model-agnostic method to evaluate the relative reliability of ML predictions by incorporating out-of-distribution detection on the training dataset. It is well documented that ML algorithms excel at interpolation (or near-interpolation) tasks but significantly degrade at extrapolation. This occurs when new samples are "far" from training samples. The method, referred to as the Laplacian distributed decay for reliability (LADDR), determines the difference between the operational and training datasets, which is used to calculate a prediction's relative reliability. LADDR is demonstrated on a feedforward neural network-based model used to predict safety significant factors during different loss-of-flow transients. LADDR is intended as a "data supervisor" and determines the appropriateness of well-trained ML models in the context of operational conditions. Ultimately, LADDR illustrates how training data can be used as evidence to support the trustworthiness of ML predictions when utilized for conventional interpolation tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Towards Precision Photometric Type ia Supernova Cosmology With Machine Learning

The revolutionary discovery of dark energy and accelerating cosmic expansion was made with just 42 type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) in 1999. Since then, large synoptic surveys, e.g., Dark Energy Survey (DES), have observed thousands more SNe Ia and the upcoming Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and Roman Space Telescope promise to deliver millions in the next decade. This unprecedented data volume can produce the required precision to unambiguously test concordance cosmology which could represent a monumental shift in our understanding of dark energy and its role in cosmic history. However, extracting a pure SN Ia sample with accurate redshifts for such a large dataset will be a challenge. Specifically, spectroscopic classification will not be possible for the vast majority of discovered objects, and only ~25% will have spectroscopic redshifts. This thesis presents a series of observational and methodological studies designed to address the questions associated with this new era of photometric SN Ia cosmology. First, we present a machine learning method for photometric classification of SNe, Supernova Classification with a COnvolutional Neural Network (SCONE). Photometric classification enables SNe with no spectroscopic information to be confidently categorized, and is a critical component of current and future analysis pipelines. SCONE achieves >99% accuracy distinguishing simulated SNe Ia from non-Ia SNe, and has been integrated into DES, LSST, and Roman analysis pipelines. We also demonstrate the efficacy of SCONE on early-time photometric classification, which will be vital for optimal allocation of spectroscopic resources. We show that SCONE can distinguish between 6 SN types with 75% accuracy on the night of initial discovery, comparable to results in the literature for full-phase SNe. Next, we study current methods for estimating SN Ia redshifts and propose a machine learning alternative that uses SN photometry alone to extract redshift information. Most SNe Ia inherit redshift information from their host galaxy, but the process of matching SNe to the correct host galaxy can be challenging. We systematically analyze the impact of incorrect redshifts from host galaxy mismatch on 5 years of DES SN data, and conclude that improved host matching or redshift estimation methods can reduce our systematic errors by ~10%. In response to this finding, we present a SN photometry-only method for estimating redshifts independent of host galaxy information, Photo-zSNthesis. We show that Photo-zSNthesis redshift estimates are accurate to within 2% across the full redshift range of LSST, a first in the literature. Finally, we focus on the robustness of machine learning (ML) algorithms for real-world and scientific applications. ML models generalize poorly beyond their training set and often experience severe performance degradation when deployed on new data. We demonstrate a general method for improving robustness that achieves new state-of-the-art results on astronomical object classification, wildlife identification, and tumor detection.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Task-specific sensor optical designs

A method and system architecture for designing a compressive sensing matrix for machine learning includes receiving an image associated with a classification task and; generating a sensing matrix. The sensing matrix includes an array of nonzero elements of the image. A prism array of prism elements is in communication with the sensing matrix. A row of values corresponding with an input angle of the prism array is mapped to a respective column corresponding with a detector. Then the detector detects light refracted at an output angle dictated by the physical shape of the prism element. A physical model of the detector is fabricated and generates a compressed representation of the image. A machine learning classification algorithm is applied to the compressed representation of the image and generates an optimized non-invertible final determination of the image.

Birch, Gabriel Carlisle↗
DOE OSTI2025

Neural Network Analysis of Nuclear Magnetic Resonance and Infrared Spectra

Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy and infrared (IR) spectroscopy are powerful chemical characterization techniques with broad general usage. However, the manual evaluation of the resulting spectra is time-consuming and requires significant expertise, preventing insights from being used in real-time applications. With recent advances in computation and artificial intelligence (AI), new tools are available for automating spectral interpretation. In this work, machine learning (ML) algorithms using 1-dimensional convolutional neural networks (CNNs) were applied to identify common functional groups from spectral information. Raw spectra were collected virtually from the Human Metabolome Database (HMDB) and National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Chemistry WebBook and processed into a suitable standard. Algorithm design was tailored to best fit the nature of the problem, with built-in flexibility to accommodate relevant parameters beyond the raw spectral input, specifically solvent identity and magnetic frequency for NMR. The predictive capability of the algorithm in identifying functional groups is displayed in several examples. This methodology has been compiled into a code repository and could easily be modified to adapt alternative data sources, including other spectrum types. To mitigate overfitting, a common problem in mathematical modeling where overfamiliarity with training data produces trends that are not representative of the general data, a novel metric was developed, referred to as Accufit. Accufit includes a parameter that penalizes substantial differences in the training accuracy and the accuracy of an independent validation set. Examples are presented showing the effectiveness of Accufit in maintaining the model’s predictive capability while controlling the overfitting when used as a custom metric for hyperparameter tuning.

Sturgill, James↗
DOE OSTI2025

REIMAGINING HEAT EXCHANGERS FOR NEXT GENERATION ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS

Air-to-refrigerant heat exchangers (HXs) are essential components in space conditioning, refrigeration, and power systems, and recent efforts have focused on making these devices more compact, reducing refrigerant charge and lowering manufacturing costs. Historically, HX innovation has been limited by available computational resources, design tools, and manufacturing constraints. The best available technologies utilize tube-fin and micro- or macro-channel tubes with fins, which are not necessarily the optimal designs achievable with current technology. In this paper, we highlight the latest advancements in air-to-refrigerant HXs, specifically emphasizing innovations achieved through shape and topology optimization. A multi-scale design optimization approach is introduced, alongside similar methods in literature, which enable highly sophisticated shape-optimized tube designs with more than 50% reduction in size and 25% reduction in refrigerant charge, essential for A3 refrigerant charge limit compliance. The frameworks integrate traditional heat and mass transfer science with state-of-the-art machine learning, genetic algorithms, and adjoint algorithms to create novel designs. While many of these innovative designs may not be manufacturable using conventional methods, they allow us explore the boundaries of what is possible. These novel air-to-refrigerant HXs are key enablers for ultra-low-refrigerant charge heat pump and refrigeration systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

Genetic algorithms for computational materials discovery accelerated by machine learning

Materials discovery is increasingly being impelled by machine learning methods that rely on pre-existing datasets. Where datasets are lacking, unbiased data generation can be achieved with genetic algorithms. Here a machine learning model is trained on-the-fly as a computationally inexpensive energy predictor before analyzing how to augment convergence in genetic algorithm-based approaches by using the model as a surrogate. This leads to a machine learning accelerated genetic algorithm combining robust qualities of the genetic algorithm with rapid machine learning. The approach is used to search for stable, compositionally variant, geometrically similar nanoparticle alloys to illustrate its capability for accelerated materials discovery, e.g., nanoalloy catalysts. The machine learning accelerated approach, in this case, yields a 50-fold reduction in the number of required energy calculations compared to a traditional “brute force” genetic algorithm. This makes searching through the space of all homotops and compositions of a binary alloy particle in a given structure feasible, using density functional theory calculations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncontrolled Learning: Codesign of Neuromorphic Hardware Topology for Neuromorphic Algorithms

Neuromorphic computing has the potential to revolutionize future technologies and our understanding of intelligence, yet it remains challenging to realize in practice. The learning-from-mistakes algorithm, inspired by the brain's simple learning rules of inhibition and pruning, is one of the few brain-like training methods. This algorithm is implemented in neuromorphic memristive hardware through a codesign process that evaluates essential hardware trade-offs. While the algorithm effectively trains small networks as binary classifiers and perceptrons, performance declines significantly with increasing network size unless the hardware is tailored to the algorithm. This work investigates the trade-offs between depth, controllability, and capacity—the number of learnable patterns—in neuromorphic hardware. This highlights the importance of topology and governing equations, providing theoretical tools to evaluate a device's computational capacity based on its measurements and circuit structure. The findings show that breaking neural network symmetry enhances both controllability and capacity. Additionally, by pruning the circuit, neuromorphic algorithms in all-memristive circuits can utilize stochastic resources to create local contrasts in network weights. Through combined experimental and simulation efforts, the parameters are identified that enable networks to exhibit emergent intelligence from simple rules, advancing the potential of neuromorphic computing.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗