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DOE OSTI2023

Evaluation of the economic implications of varied pressure drawdown strategies generated using a real-time, rapid predictive, multi-fidelity model for unconventional oil and gas wells

Experience has suggested that pressure maintenance in hydraulically fractured reservoirs via lower, more sustained production drawdowns may offer improved cumulative recovery and overall resource extraction efficiency compared to more rapid drawdown approaches aimed at generating high initial production. However, given the inherent variability of oil and natural gas markets, operators pursue production strategies that maximize profitability over resource extraction efficiency. This study focuses on evaluating the implications of contrasting pressure drawdown strategies on the long-term production and resulting economics for a real, producing unconventional gas well in the Marcellus Shale of the Appalachian Basin using a techno-economic analysis approach. Our research combines elements of well-specific horizontal well design, production forecasting, equipment sizing and capital cost estimation, operating cost estimation, and revenue and tax calculations. Gas production forecast outlook scenarios were generated under varying pressure drawdowns using two approaches: 1) a novel physics-informed machine learning workflow and 2) traditional reservoir simulation. A discounted cash flow model was used to evaluate the resulting economic implications for each drawdown scenario—generating output for exploring the coupled effect of factors like the timing and volume of gas production, prevailing economic and market conditions for natural gas, and overall estimated ultimate recovery on profitability metrics such as internal rate of return and net present value. Results show that there is potential to maximize the cumulative gas produced in the specific case study well by employing a lower pressure drawdown. Conversely, the greatest profitability is achieved using rapid drawdown as signified by a small, specific subset of our outlook scenarios. On an averaging basis, we find that the combinations of highest cumulative producing and most profitable scenarios occur under lower drawdowns with long (>40 years) producing timeframes, but require higher relative gas price and lower discounting considerations. Further, the machine learning predictive outlooking capability proved effective for enabling rapid generation of a multitude of scenario forecasts. As a result, a variety of prominent example cases could be generated to strike the balance of greater productivity and economic return given their associated producing features and economic conditions when compared to similar producing scenarios—critical insight that offers improved decision support for unconventional oil and gas operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Entropy removal of medical diagnostics

Shannon entropy is a core concept in machine learning and information theory, particularly in decision tree modeling. To date, no studies have extensively and quantitatively applied Shannon entropy in a systematic way to quantify the entropy of clinical situations using diagnostic variables (true and false positives and negatives, respectively). Decision tree representations of medical decision-making tools can be generated using diagnostic variables found in literature and entropy removal can be calculated for these tools. This concept of clinical entropy removal has significant potential for further use to bring forth healthcare innovation, such as quantifying the impact of clinical guidelines and value of care and applications to Emergency Medicine scenarios where diagnostic accuracy in a limited time window is paramount. This analysis was done for 623 diagnostic tools and provided unique insights into their utility. For studies that provided detailed data on medical decision-making algorithms, bootstrapped datasets were generated from source data to perform comprehensive machine learning analysis on these algorithms and their constituent steps, which revealed a novel and thorough evaluation of medical diagnostic algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Robust Machine Learning Inference from X-ray Absorption Near Edge Spectra through Featurization

X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) is a commonly employed technique for characterizing functional materials. In particular, X-ray absorption near edge spectra (XANES) encode local coordination and electronic information, and machine learning approaches to extract this information are of significant interest. To date, most ML approaches for XANES have primarily focused on using the raw spectral intensities as input, overlooking the potential benefits of incorporating spectral transformations and dimensionality reduction techniques into ML predictions. Here, in this work, we focused on systematically comparing the impact of different featurization methods on the performance of ML models for XAS analysis. We evaluated the classification and regression capabilities of these models on computed data sets and validated their performance on previously unseen experimental data sets. Our analysis revealed an intriguing discovery: the cumulative distribution function feature achieves both high prediction accuracy and exceptional transferability. This remarkably robust performance can be attributed to its tolerance to horizontal shifts in the spectra, which is crucial when validating models using experimental data. While this work exclusively focuses on XANES analysis, we anticipate that the methodology presented here will hold promise as a versatile asset to the broader spectroscopy community.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2019

LEMD

Deep neural network-based force field enables researchers to study materials systems of large size and/or time scale efficiently with comparable accuracy to DFT-based methods. However, such force fields, if improperly trained or mistakenly selected, could result in ill-conditioned results. This SBIR Phase I project has explored the possibility to characterize and index force fields in Deep potential theme by quantizing local atomic environments of atoms in a simulation system. This project has also demonstrated the feasibility of building a public accessible web infrastructure providing high quality machine learning algorithm-based force field for next generation materials modeling and simulation to accelerate the study and discovery of new energy-related materials.

Su, Ninghai↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving the Transportability of a Deep Learning Denoising Model Using Transfer Learning Techniques

The adoption of machine learning techniques in the seismology community has led to great performance improvements in several areas, including signal processing. Specifically, the development of deep learning–based seismic waveform denoising models has the potential to yield improvements in signal detection capabilities for networks operating in particularly noisy environments. Recent advancements in the design of these deep learning denoising models have included the incorporation of continuous and discrete wavelet transform functions into the network architecture to improve the learning capabilities and efficiency of said models. These wavelet transform–based seismic denoising models have shown improved denoising capabilities in regions where there is good agreement between the data features present in the training and evaluation datasets. However, questions remain about the overall transportability of these models to other monitoring regions. Here, in this study, we will determine the baseline transportability of a newly developed multilevel wavelet‐transform convolutional neural network (MWCNN) seismic denoising model. We accomplish this by taking a version of the MWCNN denoising model trained on data collected from the Utah region and evaluating its denoising performance on datasets collected from the neighboring Nevada region, which differ with regard to monitoring sensor types and event histories. We find that there is a notable variability in denoising performance related to the degree of similarity between the initial and new target datasets. The most notable difference in denoising performance is the ability of the denoising model to preserve accurate amplitude information associated with the signal energy present in the waveform data. Finally, we evaluate the ability of transfer learning techniques to improve the transportability of the MWCNN denoising model. We find that although there is still a performance gap present in the denoising results of the MWCNN model, transfer learning did yield improved results.

Quinones, Louis [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL↗

DOE OSTI2022

A machine-learning framework for the simulation of nuclear deflection of Planet-Killer-Asteroids

Here, as detection capabilities in astronomy have dramatically improved over the last two decades, concerns over Planet-Killer-Asteroids (PKAs) have become widespread, with nuclear weapons being proposed to destroy or deflect asteroids that are on a short-term projected collision course with Earth. Two main mitigation strategies have been proposed: • Case 1: Break up an incoming asteroid into smaller pieces that will disperse widely, resulting in smaller-scale, less detrimental, Earth-impacts or • Case 2: Deflect an incoming asteroid trajectory to avoid collision altogether. While the two strategies are not mutually exclusive, deflection is a safer strategy, ideally by harnessing all of the released energy from a nuclear device to move the asteroid as a rigid body. However, this case may not be always possible, since the strength of the energy release may break up the asteroid. In this work, the dynamical response of a PKA to a series of ultra-high energy impulses, such as those generated by nuclear devices, is formulated. A rapid iterative Discrete Element Method (DEM) method is developed to describe the deflection and potential breakup of the PKA as a function of a material bonding strength parameter within the asteroid and the magnitude of the applied impulse. The use of DEM allows for fragmentation of the PKA and the ability to compute the trajectories and distribution of the resulting debris field. Finally, a machine-learning algorithm is then developed and combined with the DEM approach to optimize the pulsation strategy for maximum possible safety and success.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Treyson Ricks - Intern Showcase Poster

Quinone-based sorbents offer a tunable, energy-efficient route to electrochemical CO2 capture, but systematic guidance for molecular design is lacking. Here, we report a high-throughput computational workflow that combines density functional theory (DFT) screening with machine-learning (ML) modeling to evaluate CO2 binding thermodynamics across several quinone derivatives, spanning benzoquinones, naphthoquinones, and anthraquinones. In addition to using solvents to stabilize the quinone anion and dianion, we studied the effect of ion-pairing on the reduction potentials and the CO2 binding energy. Automated Python scripts handled geometry optimizations and adduct-formation energies on an HPC cluster, reducing manual effort significantly. This integrated platform can uncover structure–property relationships and enables rapid in silico evaluation of untested candidates. We present one example from our workflow to showcase the capability of using quinones with ion-pairing to effectively capture CO2. Our approach paves the way for the rational selection of optimal quinone sorbents and can be extended with experimental thermochemical and kinetic data, alternative redox cycles, and stability assessments to accelerate development of next-generation electrochemical CO2 capture materials.

37 - INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL AND ANALYTICAL C↗

DOE OSTI2019

Final Report on the Viability of Acoustic Techniques for Density and Mass Flow in Enrichment Plants

The primary purpose of this research is to study the viability of acoustic signatures and sensors that could support accurate, noninvasive, and unattended measurement of uranium hexafluoride (UF6) gas density and mass flow rate in situations representative of gaseous centrifuge enrichment plants (GCEP) under safeguards by the International Atomic Energy Agency. The measurement method under development can be readily retrofitted to the exterior of piping in existing systems, potentially facilitating acceptance by facility operators. The findings from the demonstration of a preliminary prototype design and first-generation analysis algorithms in this project will inform the safeguards community as to whether continued acoustic instrument and methods development are warranted. This project conducted two types of measurements, depending on the flow conditions of the gas. For static measurements, the focus is on understanding the acoustic properties at low pressure for non-flowing UF6. For flow measurements, the focus is on understanding the performance of the acoustic system in a simulation of a GCEP pipe using a surrogate gas under fully developed flow conditions. Testing with flowing UF6 was not considered because the cost of building a flowing UF6 system with flow similar to a GCEP was considerably greater than allocated project resources. This document summarizes the results of research conducted over the course of the project. Based on the results to date, the approach is seen to be promising with non-invasive acoustic measurements shown to be possible at the desired pressures. The project has demonstrated • 5% uncertainty of the UF6 gas density for static measurements at pressures relevant to GCEP operations over a 5-minute measurement window with a clear path forward to achieving considerably lower uncertainties over a two-hour period, • Measurements of flowing surrogate gases at pressures relevant to GCEP operations. However, additional research remains to be done to further develop the measurement approach and transition the technology for field use. These development needs include: • Understand the impact of flowing gas on gas density measurements, • Adding sensors and improving the measurement procedure, • Augmenting the data analysis methods by leveraging machine learning approaches, • Reevaluating uncertainty requirements for density and mass flow given observed Online Enrichment Monitor (OLEM) measurement uncertainties, • Designing a robust instrumentation package for field-testing, and • Evaluating measurement results to understand the potential impact on mass balance calculations within GCEP facilities.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning to accelerate screening for Marcus reorganization energies

Understanding and predicting the charge transport properties of π-conjugated materials is an important challenge for designing new organic electronic devices, such as solar cells, plastic transistors, light-emitting devices, and chemical sensors. A key component of the hopping mechanism of charge transfer in these materials is the Marcus reorganization energy which serves as an activation barrier to hole or electron transfer. While modern density functional methods have proven to accurately predict trends in intramolecular reorganization energy, such calculations are computationally expensive. In this work, we outline active machine learning methods to predict computed intramolecular reorganization energies of a wide range of polythiophenes and their use toward screening new compounds with low internal reorganization energies. Our models have an overall root mean square error (RMSE) of ±0.113 eV, but a much smaller RMSE of only ±0.036 eV on the new screening set. Since the larger error derives from high-reorganization energy compounds, the new method is highly effective to screen for compounds with potentially efficient charge transport parameters.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven methods for diffusivity prediction in nuclear fuels

The growth rate of structural defects in nuclear fuels under irradiation is intrinsically related to the diffusion rates of the defects in the fuel lattice. The generation and growth of atomistic structural defects can significantly alter the performance characteristics of the fuel. This alteration of functionality must be accurately captured to qualify a nuclear fuel for use in reactors. Predicting the diffusion coefficients of defects and how they impact macroscale properties such as swelling, gas release, and creep is therefore of significant importance in both the design of new nuclear fuels and the assessment of current fuel types. In this article, we apply data-driven methods focusing on machine learning (ML) to determine various diffusion properties of two nuclear fuels—uranium oxide and uranium nitride. We show that using ML can increase, often significantly, the accuracy of predicting diffusivity in nuclear fuels in comparison to current analytical models. We also illustrate how ML can be used to quickly develop fuel models with parameter dependencies that are more complex and robust than what is currently available in the literature. In conclusion, these results suggest there is potential for ML to accelerate the design, qualification, and implementation of nuclear fuels.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Advancing Fusion with Machine Learning Research Needs Workshop Report

Abstract Machine learning and artificial intelligence (ML/AI) methods have been used successfully in recent years to solve problems in many areas, including image recognition, unsupervised and supervised classification, game-playing, system identification and prediction, and autonomous vehicle control. Data-driven machine learning methods have also been applied to fusion energy research for over 2 decades, including significant advances in the areas of disruption prediction, surrogate model generation, and experimental planning. The advent of powerful and dedicated computers specialized for large-scale parallel computation, as well as advances in statistical inference algorithms, have greatly enhanced the capabilities of these computational approaches to extract scientific knowledge and bridge gaps between theoretical models and practical implementations. Large-scale commercial success of various ML/AI applications in recent years, including robotics, industrial processes, online image recognition, financial system prediction, and autonomous vehicles, have further demonstrated the potential for data-driven methods to produce dramatic transformations in many fields. These advances, along with the urgency of need to bridge key gaps in knowledge for design and operation of reactors such as ITER, have driven planned expansion of efforts in ML/AI within the US government and around the world. The Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Science programs in Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) and Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) have organized several activities to identify best strategies and approaches for applying ML/AI methods to fusion energy research. This paper describes the results of a joint FES/ASCR DOE-sponsored Research Needs Workshop on Advancing Fusion with Machine Learning, held April 30–May 2, 2019, in Gaithersburg, MD (full report available at https://science.osti.gov/-/media/fes/pdf/workshop-reports/FES_ASCR_Machine_Learning_Report.pdf ). The workshop drew on broad representation from both FES and ASCR scientific communities, and identified seven Priority Research Opportunities (PRO’s) with high potential for advancing fusion energy. In addition to the PRO topics themselves, the workshop identified research guidelines to maximize the effectiveness of ML/AI methods in fusion energy science, which include focusing on uncertainty quantification, methods for quantifying regions of validity of models and algorithms, and applying highly integrated teams of ML/AI mathematicians, computer scientists, and fusion energy scientists with domain expertise in the relevant areas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Autonomous Output‐Oriented Aerosol Jet Printing Enabled by Hybrid Machine Learning

Additive manufacturing (AM) is rapidly revolutionizing modern manufacturing with recent progress in advanced printing methods and improved properties of printed materials. However, traditional AM methods are limited by their input‐oriented nature, which demands tedious trial‐and‐error tuning of printing parameters to achieve desired output properties. Here, in this work, an output‐oriented artificial intelligence‐integrated AM (AIAM) method is reported that enables an user to specify desired output properties while the printer autonomously discovers the optimal input printing parameters by integrating hybrid machine learning models and in situ measurements. Based on a predictive mapping between the input printing parameters and the output properties of interests established with <20 experiments designed by active learning, inverse design tasks are performed to intelligently generate the printing parameter settings that lead to desired outcomes using reinforcement learning. This method is demonstrated by autonomous aerosol jet printing (AJP) of conductive polymer films and achieving user‐defined electrical resistances with an ultralow error of 3.7%. The AIAM method, with its output‐oriented nature, holds the potential to significantly improve the autonomy, predictability, efficiency, and accessibility of the AM processes, which will unlock new possibilities in the autonomous and intelligent printing of a broad range of functional materials and devices.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2018

Kinetic Learning vo.1

New synthetic biology capabilities hold the promise of dramatically improving our ability to engineer biological systems. However, a fundamental hurdle in realizing this potential is our inability to accurately predict biological behavior after modifying the corresponding genotype. Kinetic models have traditionally been used to predict pathway dynamics in bioengineered systems, but they take significant time to develop, and rely heavily on domain expertise. This software implements a method to effectively predict pathway dynamics in an automated fashion using a combination of machine learning and abundant multiomics data (proteomics and metabolomics). The new method outperforms a classical kinetic model, and produces qualitative and quantitative predictions that can be used to productively guide bioengineering efforts. This method systematically leverages arbitrary amounts of new data to improve predictions, and does not assume any particular interactions, but rather implicitly chooses the most predictive ones.

Martin, HectorGarcia↗

DOE OSTI2021

HAIMOS Ensemble Forecasts for Intra-day and Day- Ahead GHI, DNI and Ramps

The objective of this research is to develop a hybrid physics-based/data-driven forecast model to improve direct normal and global horizontal irradiance (DNI and GHI) prediction for horizons ranging from 1 to 72 hours. Project objectives also address key gaps in state-of-the-art solar forecasting: accurate probabilistic solar forecasts and the forecasting of large irradiance ramps (ramp onset and magnitude). The proposed model ensembles Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts, determinist physics-based algorithms, and new-generation cloud cover products (high-resolution rapid refresh satellite images and Large Eddy Simulations). The result is the Hybrid Adaptive Input Model Objective Selection (HAIMOS) ensemble model. HAIMOS blends state of the art machine learning methodologies with physics-based models for cloud cover and cloud optical depth forecasts. The technical activities followed a two-pronged strategy. First, the preprocessing of data, the selection of inputs to the nonlinear approximators, the type of approximator and objective functions, and post-processing ensembling techniques included in HAIMOS were all optimized adaptively to find the best model for a specific goal (reduce DNI/GHI forecast error, improve the prediction of ramp onset, etc.). Second, a large effort was put in improving cloud identification and the forecast of cloud cover and cloud optical depth. To this end, new-generation cloud parametrization products were developed in this work. These include improved algorithms to assist in cloud identification, cloud classification and cloud parametrization from satellite images – three key factors in the accuracy of 1 to 6-hours irradiance forecasts and prediction of ramp onset. Furthermore, we also included cloud information extracted from high resolution rapid refresh satellite images (GOES-16) and Large Eddy Simulations (LES). LES was used to model the atmosphere in detail over locations of interest and produce cloud optical depth forecasts. Once these data streams were validated, they were used as input data to the HAIMOS forecast. The model was developed using data from several climatologically distinct locations with potential for high solar penetration. In the last year of the project, we conducted a validation campaign according to the guidelines stipulated by the Topic Area 1 project as described in the FOA. This effort brings, for the first time, proven machine-learning methodologies for generating state-of-the-art solar forecasts interweaved with detailed physics-based models for cloud detection, and cloud optical depth forecasts. HAIMOS will generate accurate irradiance probabilistic forecast to assist in reducing solar generation prediction error. Globally optimized solar forecast models are more likely to impact solar energy stakeholders. The goal of this project was to increase the state-of-the-art forecast skill from their present values of 10 to 35%. At the end of the project, we achieved between 30% and 50% forecast skill across a wide range of horizons for both GHI and DNI.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

On-policy learning-based deep reinforcement learning assessment for building control efficiency and stability

Artificial intelligence technologies have emerged as a game changer not only in specific applications such as image recognition and machine translation but also in many scientific domains. In particular, as deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has shown great success in complex control problems, DRL-based control has been considered as a potential solution to efficiently control and manage building systems. However, broad assessment of DRL-based building control is still required to characterize their pros and cons in comparison with conventional building control methods (e.g., rule-based feedback controls). In this paper, we assessed DRL-based controls with on-policy learning-based algorithms and continuous control actions for cooling control of large office buildings in the summer season to minimize whole-building energy use and occupant discomfort. We compared DRL-based control methods with two baseline control methods: (1) a pre-determined schedule with supply temperature and static pressure setpoints, and (2) advanced reset method that adjusts setpoints based on heuristic rules, i.e., ASHRAE Guideline 36. We also tested the DRL algorithms to evaluate their performances in multiple climate locations. We found that DRL-based control methods outperformed the baseline control methods in terms of energy savings while maintaining a thermal comfort. DRL reduced energy use between ~4%–22% on average compared to the baseline methods, depending on climate location. We also evaluated DRL-based control in terms of control stability and showed that DRL-based methods should address the span of hardware lifetimes in practical operations.

control stability↗

DOE OSTI2021

Estimating Subhourly Inverter Clipping Loss From Satellite-Derived Irradiance Data

Photovoltaic system production simulations are conventionally run using hourly weather datasets. Hourly simulations are sufficiently accurate to predict the majority of long-term system behavior but cannot resolve high-frequency effects like inverter clipping caused by short-duration irradiance variability. Direct modeling of this subhourly clipping error is only possible for the few locations with high-resolution irradiance datasets. This paper describes a method of predicting the magnitude of this error using a machine learning regressor ensemble model, comprised of a random forest and an XGBoost model, and 30-minute satellite irradiance data. The method predicts a correction for each 30-minute interval with the potential to roll up into 60-minute corrections to match an hourly energy model. The model is trained and validated at locations where the error can be directly simulated from 1-minute ground data. The validation shows low bias at most ground station locations. The model is also applied to gridded satellite irradiance to produce a heatmap of the estimated clipping error across the United States. Finally, the relative importance of each predictor satellite variable is retrieved from the model and discussed.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2017

A Workflow for Visual Diagnostics of Binary Classifiers using Instance-Level Explanations

In this paper, we propose a visual analytics workflow to help data scientists explore, diagnose, and understand the decisions made by a binary classifier. The approach leverages “instance-level explanations”, measures of local feature relevance that explain single instances and uses them to build a set of visual representations that guide the users in their investigation. The workflow is based on three main visual representations and steps: one based on aggregate statistics to see how data distributes across correct or incorrect decisions; one based on explanations to understand which features are used to make these decisions; and one based on raw data, to derive insights on potential root causes for the observed patterns. The work is validated through a long-term collaboration with a group of healthcare professionals who used our method to make sense of machine learning models they developed. The case studies from this collaboration demonstrate that the proposed method helps experts derive useful knowledge about the model and the phenomena it describes and also generates useful hypotheses on how a model can be improved.

Krause, Josua↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electric Grid Security (EGS) FY24 Annual Report

Sandia’s Electric Grid Security program advances a national vision of a secure, resilient, and affordable electric system for all users. Our achievements reflect a strategic approach combining technology development; modeling, simulation, and data analytics; and partnered demonstrations and outreach to further the adoption of advanced grid and storage technologies. Our FY24 efforts leverage the strengths of our partnerships—spanning Sandia’s core science and technology competencies as well as external technology leaders—to develop the solutions today which enable the grid of tomorrow. Key accomplishments in this report that support our strategy span our technical program areas and include: • The advancement of energy storage technologies, including creation of a national Long Duration Energy Storage Consortium; • Applications of artificial intelligence and machine learning to enhanced grid operations and planning; • Development of solid-state power conversion technologies and a new medium-voltage research lab; • New technologies to assess wildfire vulnerabilities and mitigate potential impacts; • Advanced applications of new cybersecurity technologies with industry partners; • Contributions to understanding the impacts of electromagnetic pulses and geomagnetic disturbances on grid components; and • Digital twin development for hybrid microgrids with multiple generators, storage, and loads.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗