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At least 1,369 records · Page 76

Controls on Barite (BaSO 4 ) Precipitation in Unconventional Reservoirs

Barite (BaSO 4 ) precipitation is one of the most ubiquitous examples of secondary sulfate mineral scaling in shale oil and gas reservoirs. Often, a suite of chemical additives is used during fracturing operations to inhibit the accumulation of mineral scales, though their efficacy is widely varied and poorly understood. This study combines experimental data and multi-component numerical reactive transport modeling to offer a more comprehensive understanding of the geochemical behavior of barite accumulation in shale matrices under conditions typical of fracturing operations. A variety of additives and conditions are individually tested in batch reactor experiments to identify the factors controlling barite precipitation. Our experimental results demonstrate a pH dependence in the rate of barite precipitation, which we use to develop a predictive model including a pH-dependent term that satisfactorily reproduces our observations. Further, this model is then extended to consider the behavior of three major shale samples of highly variable mineralogy (Eagle Ford, Marcellus, and Barnett). This data-validated model offers a reliable tool to predict and ultimately mitigate against secondary mineral accumulation in unconventional shale reservoirs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Challenging Practices of Algebraic Battery Life Models through Statistical Validation and Model Identification via Machine-Learning

Various modeling techniques are used to predict the capacity fade of Li-ion batteries. Algebraic reduced-order models, which are inherently interpretable and computationally fast, are ideal for use in battery controllers, technoeconomic models, and multi-objective optimizations. For Li-ion batteries with graphite anodes, solid-electrolyte-interphase (SEI) growth on the graphite surface dominates fade. This fade is often modeled using physically informed equations, such as square-root of time for predicting solvent-diffusion limited SEI growth, and Arrhenius and Tafel-like equations predicting the temperature and state-of-charge rate dependencies. In some cases, completely empirical relationships are proposed. However, statistical validation is rarely conducted to evaluate model optimality, and only a handful of possible models are usually investigated. This article demonstrates a novel procedure for automatically identifying reduced-order degradation models from millions of algorithmically generated equations via bi-level optimization and symbolic regression. Identified models are statistically validated using cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification via bootstrapping. On a LiFePO 4 /Graphite cell calendar aging data set, automatically identified models utilizing square-root, power law, stretched exponential, and sigmoidal functions result in greater accuracy and lower uncertainty than models identified by human experts, and demonstrate that previously known physical relationships can be empirically "rediscovered" using machine learning.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Artificial intelligence-based predictive modeling for imaging neutral particle analyzers on the DIII-D tokamak

The Imaging Neutral Particle Analyzer (INPA) at DIII-D is a diagnostic system used to accurately resolve the energy and spatial distributions of fast ions in fusion plasmas. A novel artificial intelligence (AI) technique named INPA-net is based on Reservoir Computing Networks and developed here to predict active and passive signals produced by charge-exchange reactions from injected and edge-cold neutrals, respectively, in magnetically confined fusion plasmas. This model is trained using a set of 21 time domain signals between 0 s to 3.35 s that includes injected beam and thermal plasma information, and 6444 real 2D experimental images of the INPA in 12 plasma discharges at DIII-D. The trained neural network is able to forecast experimental images in real-time. The model achieves an R-squared value of 0.91, which is higher than the 0.83 value achieved by a simple linear regression model. This improvement highlights the model's enhanced predictive accuracy for measured images from the validation set. This AI approach is valuable due to its rapid response times and potential for integration into real-time plasma control systems. A version of this model capable of generating syntehic images would be useful for the real-time monitoring of fast-ion transport. A comprehensive sensitivity study reveals that INPA-net maintains high performance even with variations in the input parameters, indicating the model's robustness and reliability. While developed for the INPA, the underlying architecture is adaptable and may be applied to various 2D imaging diagnostics in fusion research.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Control algorithms for dynamic windows for residential buildings

This study analyzes the influence of control algorithms for dynamic windows on energy consumption, number of hours of retracted shades during daylight and shade operations. Five different control algorithms - heating/cooling, simple rules, perfect citizen, heat flow and predictive weather were developed and compared. The performance of a typical residential building was modeled with EnergyPlus. The program Widow was used to generate a Bi-Directional Distribution Function (BSDF) for two window configurations. The BSDF was exported to EnergyPlus using the IDF file format. The EMS feature in EnergyPlus was used to develop custom control algorithms. The calculations were made for four locations with diverse climate. The results showed that: (a) use of automated shading with proposed control algorithms can reduce the site energy in the range of 11.6-13.0%; in regard to source (primary) energy in the range of 20.1-21.6%, (b) the differences between algorithms in regard to energy savings are not high, (c) the differences between algorithms in regard to number of hours of retracted shades are visible, (e) the control algorithms have a strong influence on shade operation and oscillation of shade can occur, (d) additional energy consumption caused by motor, sensors and a small microprocessor in the analyzed case is very small.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Integration and assessment of component health prognostics in supervisory control systems - 291

Enhanced risk monitors (ERMs) for active components in advanced reactor concepts use predictive estimates of component failure to update, in real time, predictive safety and economic risk metrics. These metrics have been shown to be capable of use in optimizing maintenance scheduling and managing plant maintenance costs. Integrating this information with plant supervisory control systems increases the potential for making control decisions that utilize realtime information on component conditions. Such decision making would limit the possibility of plant operations that increase the likelihood of degrading the functionality of one or more components while maintaining the overall functionality of the plant. ERM uses sensor data for providing real-time information about equipment condition for deriving risk monitors. This information is used to estimate the remaining useful life and probability of failure of these components. By combining this information with plant probabilistic risk assessment models, predictive estimates of risk posed by continued plant operation in the presence of detected degradation may be estimated. In this paper, we describe this methodology in greater detail, and discuss its integration with a prototypic software-based plant supervisory control platform. In order to integrate these two technologies and evaluate the integrated system, software to simulate the sensor data was developed, prognostic models for feedwater valves were developed, and several use cases defined. The full paper will describe these use cases, and the results of the initial evaluation. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Engineering Ralstonia eutropha for Production of Isobutanol (IBT) Motor Fuel from Carbon Dioxide, Hydrogen, and Oxygen Project Final Report

This research project is a collaboration between the Sinskey laboratory at MIT and the Worden laboratory at Michigan State University. The goal of the project is to produce Isobutanol (IBT), a branched-chain alcohol that can serve as a drop-in transportation fuel, through the engineered microbial biosynthesis of Carbon Dioxide, Hydrogen, and Oxygen using a novel bioreactor. This final technical report presents the findings of both the biological engineering work at MIT that extended the native branched-chain amino acid pathway of the wild type Ralstonia eutropha H16 to perform this biosynthesis, as well as the unique design, modeling, and construction of a bioreactor for incompatible gasses at Michigan State that enabled the operational testing of the complete system. This 105 page technical report summarizing the three years of research includes 72 figures and 11 tables of findings. Ralstonia eutropha (also known as Cupriavidus necator) is a Gram-negative, facultatively chemolithoautotrophic bacteria. It has been the principle organism used for the study of polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB) polymer biosynthesis. The wild-type Ralstonia eutropha H16 produces PHB as an intracellular carbon storage material while under nutrient stress in the presence of excess carbon. Under this stress, it can accumulate approximately 80 % of its cell dry weight (CDW) as this intracellular polymer. With the restoration of the required nutrients, the cells are then able to catabolize this polymer. If extracted from the cell, this PHB polymer can be processed into biodegradable and biocompatible plastics, however for this research, it is the efficient metabolic pathway channeling the captured carbon that is of interest. R. eutropha is further unique in that it contains two carbon-fixation Calvin–Benson–Bassham cycle operons, two oxygen-tolerant hydrogenases, and several formate dehydrogenases. It has also been much studied for its ability in the presence of oxygen, to fix carbon dioxide into complex cellular molecules using the energy from hydrogen. In this research project, engineered strains of R. eutropha redirected the excess carbon from PHB storage into the production of isobutanol and 3-methyl-1-butanol (branched-chain higher alcohols). These branched-chain higher alcohols can be used directly as substitutes for fossil-based fuels and are seen as alternative biofuels to ethanol and biodiesel. Importantly, these alcohols have approximately 98 % of the energy content of gasoline, 17 % higher than the current gasoline additive ethanol, without impacting corn market production for feed or food. Unlike ethanol, these branched-chain alcohols have low vapor pressure, hygroscopicity, and water solubility, which make them readily compatible with the existing pipelines, gasoline pumps, and engines in our transportation infrastructure. While the use of alternative energies from solar, wind, geothermal, and hydroelectric has spread for stationary power applications, these energy sources cannot be effectively or efficiently employed in current or future transportation systems. With the ongoing concerns of fossil fuel availability and price stability over the long term, alternative biofuels like branched-chain higher alcohols hold promise as a suitable transportation fuel in the future. We showed in our research that various mutant strains of R. eutropha with isobutyraldehyde dehydrogenase activity, in combination with the overexpression of plasmid-borne, native branched-chain amino acid biosynthesis pathway genes and the overexpression of heterologous ketoisovalerate decarboxylase gene, would produce isobutanol and 3-methyl-1-butanol when initiated during nitrogen or phosphorus limitation. Early on, we isolated one mutant R. eutropha strain which produced over 180 mg/L branched-chain alcohols in flask culture while being more tolerant of isobutanol toxicity. After the targeted elimination of genes encoding several potential carbon sinks (ilvE, bkdAB, and aceE), the production titer of the improved to 270 mg/L isobutanol and 40 mg/L 3-methyl-1-butanol. Semicontinuous flask cultivation supplied the cells with sufficient nutrients while minimizing the toxicity caused by isobutanol. Under this cultivation, the R. eutropha mutant grew and produced more than 14 g/L branched-chain alcohols over the duration of 50 days. These results demonstrate that R. eutropha carbon flux can be redirected from PHB to branched-chain alcohols and that engineered R. eutropha can be cultivated over prolonged periods of time for product biosynthesis. While this bioengineering work was being done at the Sinskey laboratory at MIT, the researchers at the Worden laboratory at Michigan State were working on the design and construction of the required specialty bioreactor for incompatible gasses (BIG) that would allow the safe feeding of microbes on Carbon Dioxide, Hydrogen, and Oxygen without explosive results. The early design and assembly work in year 1 incorporated a novel microbubble generator to maximize the bioavailability of gasses within the system comprised of small scale hollow fiber reactors. The early success of the microbubble generator eliminated the need to investigate potentially toxic surfactants within the system. For operational control, the system design incorporated a Opto22-based control network. The researchers also selected the specific hollow fiber material suitable for the bioreactor application. A variety of commercially available hollow fiber membranes were compared with regard to their pore sizes, cell affinity, and potential interference to cell viability assays. The selected membrane with its spongy layer was then tested for diffusivity of O2 and CO2. The instrumented system was then fully assembled for experimentally measuring the heterotrophic growth rate of immobilized R. eutropha cells. The requisite procedures for inoculation, measurement, and cleaning were established enabling the system performance to be validated under controlled laboratory conditions. In year 2, the researchers completed the Opto22 based cross-platform control network, and the system’s communications across the Sartorius fermentation system and Bruker gas chromatograph was established via open platform communications (OPC) protocol. Using the revised system, measurements were taken of the R.eutropha cell growth rate and substrate mass transfer rate in the hollow fiber membrane. Several IBT recovery strategies were explored and resin adsorption was determined to be optimal solution for lab scale operations. The adsorption capacity of the resin column was then measured and IBT desorption using methanol has been demonstrated. With the growing body of experimental data in hand, mathematical models were constructed to demonstrate and map the cellular kinetics, mass transfer of heterotrophic and autotrophic substrates in the hollow fiber, and the adsorption process in the resin column. A structured kinetic model was constructed to describe the competition between cell mass generation and IBT production. The reactor was then scaled up from single fiber to a membrane area of 180 cm2 and then further to 1 ft2. In Year 3 of the research, the IBT mass transfer across the membrane was characterized within the system with experiments to empirically measure the IBT diffusion coefficient in the BIG spongy layer. Using the refined mathematical models, the researchers are now able to explain the experimental observations and predict bioreactor performance under a wide range of experimental conditions. The Big system is able to demonstrate continuous controlled operations with the integrated IBT recovery system. Both heterotrophic and autotrophic production have been shown during continuous operation with heterotrophic and autotrophic stages. Performance of BIG system has been measured during continuous run with alternating heterotrophic growth on fructose and autotrophic product formation on H2, CO2, and O2. Volumetric productivities of IBT at 325 mg/(L day) and of 3M1B at 50 mg/(L day) were achieved, which were comparable to that achieved under heterotrophic conditions. Using the mathematical model, researchers are able to predict system performance for scaled-up BIG system. The apparent diffusion coefficient of IBT in the spongy layer of XM-50 hollow fiber membranes has been measured at various lumen liquid flow rates. The experiment is simulated in COMSOL to validate the results. The constructed COMSOL model is able to simulate BIG system performance in both batch and continuous mode. Mathematical simulations of the system performance have been run to identify the most crucial operational conditions, identifying the rate-limiting factors in autotrophic production of IBT, and quantitating the rate of IBT catabolism. Investigations of the productivity of the production system have suggested and the modeling of the system has revealed a particular sensitivity to the catabolism of the produced IBT by the engineered R. eutropha. Experiments have been designed and executed to quantify the IBT catabolism of R. eutropha, which open up possibilities for further system improvements through future, targeted bioengineering of the strain. Finally, the researchers at Michigan State performed an economic analysis of the system, based on the collective results, and their findings are presented in full within the report.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Comparative Analysis of ANN and LSTM Prediction Accuracy and Cooling Energy Savings through AHU-DAT Control in an Office Building

This paper proposes the optimal algorithm for controlling the HVAC system in the target building. Previous studies have analyzed pre-selected algorithms without considering the unique data characteristics of the target building, such as location, climate conditions, and HVAC system type. To address this, we compare the accuracy of cooling load prediction using ANN and LSTM algorithms, widely used in building energy research, to determine the optimal algorithm for HVAC control in the target building. We develop a simulation model calibrated with actual data to ensure data reliability and compare the energy consumption of the existing HVAC control method and the two algorithms-based methods. Results show that the ANN algorithm, with a CV(RMSE) of 12.7%, has a higher prediction accuracy than the LSTM algorithm, CV(RMSE) of 17.3%, making it a more suitable algorithm for HVAC control. Furthermore, implementing the ANN-based approach results in a 3.2% cooling energy reduction from the optimal control of Air Handling Unit (AHU) Discharge Air Temperature (DAT) compared to the fixed DAT at 12.8 °C in a representative day. This study demonstrates that ML-based HVAC system control can effectively reduce cooling energy consumption in HVAC systems, providing an effective strategy for energy conservation and improved HVAC system efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A hierarchical gray-box dynamic modeling methodology for direct-expansion cooling systems to support control stability analysis; Méthodologie de modélisation dynamique hiérarchique de type boîte grise pour les systèmes de refroidissement à détente directe afin de soutenir l'analyse de stabilité de la commande

In this paper, a gray-box dynamic modeling approach for direct-expansion cooling systems is presented. The overall approach incorporates a multi-stage training procedure that consists of 1) identification of component sub-models from quasi-steady-state performance data, 2) system model integration with estimation of refrigerant charge and 3) fine tuning of thermal capacitances of the evaporator and condenser to capture the system dynamic responses. Compared to traditional physics-based models, the proposed modeling approach has advantages including reduced engineering efforts in the model development phase, improved computational efficiency and enhanced prediction accuracy. The modeling method was validated using a 3-ton variable-speed heat pump and proved to be capable of accurately predicting the system transient behaviors over a wide range of operating conditions. The established dynamic model was then applied for control stability analysis, with a specific goal of determining a proper control execution time step. The case study results showed that the stable control execution time step could change significantly, from 3 sec to 19 sec, as the operating conditions and control settings vary, and a proper selection of the execution time step is critical to ensure stable and reliable operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Integration and Assessment of Component Health Prognostics in Supervisory Control Systems

Enhanced risk monitors (ERMs) for active components in advanced reactor concepts use predictive estimates of component failure to update, in real time, predictive safety and economic risk metrics. These metrics have been shown to be capable of use in optimizing maintenance scheduling and managing plant maintenance costs. Integrating this information with plant supervisory control systems increases the potential for making control decisions that utilize real-time information on component conditions. Such decision making would limit the possibility of plant operations that increase the likelihood of degrading the functionality of one or more components while maintaining the overall functionality of the plant. ERM uses sensor data for providing real-time information about equipment condition for deriving risk monitors. This information is used to estimate the remaining useful life and probability of failure of these components. By combining this information with plant probabilistic risk assessment models, predictive estimates of risk posed by continued plant operation in the presence of detected degradation may be estimated. In this paper, we describe this methodology in greater detail, and discuss its integration with a prototypic software-based plant supervisory control platform. In order to integrate these two technologies and evaluate the integrated system, software to simulate the sensor data was developed, prognostic models for feedwater valves were developed, and several use cases defined. The full paper will describe these use cases, and the results of the initial evaluation.

Ramuhalli, Pradeep↗

Modeling uranium transport in acidic contaminated groundwater with base addition

This study investigates reactive transport modeling in a column of uranium(VI)-contaminated sediments with base additions in the circulating influent. The groundwater and sediment exhibit oxic conditions with low pH, high concentrations of NO{sub 3}{sup -}, SO{sub 4}{sup 2-}, U and various metal cations. Preliminary batch experiments indicate that additions of strong base induce rapid immobilization of U for this material. In the column experiment that is the focus of the present study, effluent groundwater was titrated with NaOH solution in an inflow reservoir before reinjection to gradually increase the solution pH in the column. An equilibrium hydrolysis, precipitation and ion exchange reaction model developed through simulation of the preliminary batch titration experiments predicted faster reduction of aqueous Al than observed in the column experiment. The model was therefore modified to consider reaction kinetics for the precipitation and dissolution processes which are the major mechanism for Al immobilization. The combined kinetic and equilibrium reaction model adequately described variations in pH, aqueous concentrations of metal cations (Al, Ca, Mg, Sr, Mn, Ni, Co), sulfate and U(VI). The experimental and modeling results indicate that U(VI) can be effectively sequestered with controlled base addition due to sorption by slowly precipitated Al with pH-dependent surface charge. The model may prove useful to predict field-scale U(VI) sequestration and remediation effectiveness.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wind Energy Forecasting with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

This was a collaborative effort between Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC as manager and operator of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Siemens Energy, Inc. (Siemens) to develop a wind resource forecasting tool. LLNL was to develop an independent high-resolution mesoscale modeling capability forecasting tool that could be implemented in conjunction with existing wind farm control and monitoring software to provide forecasting of wind resources using local observations of winds and temperature. Research with LLNL’s state-of-the-art large-eddy simulation meteorological prediction model, based on the community WRF model and innovative turbulence parameterizations, would improve that model’s applicability to large wind farms offshore and in complex terrain. The modeling capability would include uncertainty quantification. Finally, the application of the modeling tool and existing global climate change predictions would enable the delineation of the likely effects of climate change on wind resources. Siemens was to provide high time resolution hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams, including temperature profiles from wind farms, for LLNL to incorporate into the modeling system, to validate and tune this forecasting model for their locations of interest. These data streams would also be used for longer-term studies of correlations of wind resources to climate oscillations to indicate how long-term climate change trends may affect the available wind resource. Siemens would also provide information and observations of turbine wakes for incorporation into the modeling tool. By implementing state-of-the-art turbulence parameterizations into a simulation model and/or ensembles of simulation models, and by integrating real-time hub height wind speed and other meteorological datastreams from wind farms into that model or ensemble of models, LLNL would develop a forecasting tool that could be implemented by Siemens as an add-on to existing wind farm control and monitoring software to provide owners with useful resource forecasting. The desired outcome was that the accuracy level of the output would be sufficient to substantiate power output commitments. The final deliverable for this work would consist of a document outlining the algorithms and software tools that could be integrated into Siemens Wind Park Supervisor.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

EV Charging Algorithm Implementation with User Price Preference

in this paper, we propose and implement a smart Electric Vehicle (EV) charging algorithm to control the EV charging infrastructures according to users’ price preferences. EVSE (Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment), equipped with bidirectional communication devices and smart meters, can be remotely monitored by the proposed charging algorithm applied to EV control center and mobile app. On the server side, ARIMA model is utilized to fit historical charging load data and perform day-ahead prediction. A pricing strategy with energy bidding policy is proposed and implemented to generate a charging price list to be broadcasted to EV users through mobile app. On the user side, EV drivers can submit their price preferences and daily travel schedules to negotiate with Control Center to consume the expected energy and minimize charging cost simultaneously. The proposed algorithm is tested and validated through the experimental implementations in UCLA parking lots.

Wang, Bin↗

Roll-to-Roll Advanced Materials Manufacturing DOE Lab Consortium - FY16 Annual Report

A DOE laboratory consortium comprised of ORNL, ANL, NREL and LBNL, coordinating with Kodak’s Eastman Business Park (Kodak) and other selected industry partners, was formed to address enhancing battery electrode performance and R2R manufacturing challenges. The objective of the FY 2016 seed project was to develop a materials genome synthesis process amenable to R2R manufacturing and to provide modeling, simulation, processing, and manufacturing techniques that demonstrate the feasibility of process controls and scale-up potential for improved battery electrodes. The research efforts were to predict and measure changes and results in electrode morphology and performance based on process condition changes; to evaluate mixed, active, particle size deposition and drying for novel electrode materials; and to model various process condition changes and the resulting morphology and electrode performance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Improved Quasi-Static Method with Step Doubling Time Adaptation

The imminent restart of the Transient Reactor Testing Facility (TREAT) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has brought significant attention to the development of transient reactor modeling. TREAT was designed to subject fuels and other reactor components to various degrees of neutron pulses, from minor transients to accident scenario. Inherently, this task requires predicting pulse responses due to various control rod movements; which is a complicated endeavor. Originally, this was done using an iterative process of rod movements and measuring the resulting response. With the advances in computer modeling, the current goal, preceding the restart, is to use simulation to characterize responses before experiments take place. However, neutron transient modeling is extremely computationally expensive due to the required implicit time-stepping. Therefore, methods that mitigate computation time, with minimal detriment to accuracy, are highly desired. This paper will describe the improved quasi-static method (IQS), which hopes to decrease computation time significantly from traditional 'brute force' transient methods. IQS is a spatial kinetics method that involves factorizing the flux solution into time-dependent amplitude and space- and time-dependent shape. The impetus of the method is the assumption that shape is weakly time-dependent, so expensive space-dependent evaluations are only required on large time steps. While inexpensive amplitude evaluations are performed on much smaller time steps to retain accuracy. IQS has been tested extensively on kinetics benchmarks with constant time steps. However, to test it's viability for TREAT simulations, evaluating IQS's performance with time adaptation is required. The rest of this paper will briefly describe the derivation of IQS, the time adaptation technique used, and results from a kinetic benchmarks. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

An iterative stochastic ensemble method for parameter estimation of subsurface flow models

Parameter estimation for subsurface flow models is an essential step for maximizing the value of numerical simulations for future prediction and the development of effective control strategies. We propose the iterative stochastic ensemble method (ISEM) as a general method for parameter estimation based on stochastic estimation of gradients using an ensemble of directional derivatives. ISEM eliminates the need for adjoint coding and deals with the numerical simulator as a blackbox. The proposed method employs directional derivatives within a Gauss–Newton iteration. The update equation in ISEM resembles the update step in ensemble Kalman filter, however the inverse of the output covariance matrix in ISEM is regularized using standard truncated singular value decomposition or Tikhonov regularization. We also investigate the performance of a set of shrinkage based covariance estimators within ISEM. The proposed method is successfully applied on several nonlinear parameter estimation problems for subsurface flow models. The efficiency of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated by the small size of utilized ensembles and in terms of error convergence rates.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Predicting Home Thermal Dynamics Using a Reduced-Order Model and Automatied Real-Time Parameter Estimation

Although smart thermostats have increasingly provided homeowners with abundant operational data related to advanced HVAC control and energy usage management in homes, there is a lack of systematic frameworks that can utilize such data to generate actionable information for advanced home comfort system diagnosis and control. Recognizing that a home thermal model, which is capable of connecting weather and HVAC operational data, is crucial to this framework, this paper introduces a home thermal model that is built upon the standard RC (Resistor-Capacitor) approach and the one virtual envelope assumption to describe the thermal dynamics of a home. A parameter estimation scheme is also developed that enables automatic, sequential, and optimal estimation of the model parameters, i.e., the thermal properties, of a home. Finally, the home thermal model and its parameter estimation scheme are tested using data collected over 63 consecutive days from a test home. In the test, the length of data that can provide enough robustness for parameter estimation is investigated. It is found that 10 days of data are enough, although 20 or more days of data can provide more robust results. In addition, when the model is used to make 12-hour-ahead predictions of indoor temperature the resulting mean, maximum, and 95%-confidence-interval absolute are 0.31 °C, 1.72 °C, and 0.90 °C, respectively, if the model is trained using 10 consecutive days of data, and 0.27 °C, 1.19 °C, and 0.72 °C, respectively, if 20 consecutive days are used. Therefore, the proposed home thermal model requires only a modest amount of training data to yield fairly accurate prediction and is able to perform better with more data.

home thermal model, Building thermal dynamics, ind↗

Holocene paleoclimate change in the western US: The importance of chronology in discerning patterns and drivers

We report sediment in lakes and meadows forms a powerful archive that can be used to reconstruct environmental change through time. Reconstructions of lake level, of chemical, biological, and hydrological conditions, and of surrounding vegetation provide detailed information about past climate conditions, both locally and regionally. Indeed, most of our current knowledge of centennial- to millennial-scale climate variability in the arid western United States, where information about past hydroclimate is particularly important, comes from such sediment-based reconstructions. The pressing need for robust, precise predictions of future conditions is a significant motivation for paleoclimate science, and current research questions frequently require Holocene reconstructions to be resolved at sub-centennial timescales. Increasingly, regional syntheses seek to identify synoptic-scale patterns similar to those defined from modern observations (seasonal, interannual, multi-decadal, etc.) or to compare with the output of climate model simulations. However, the age control on existing records, especially those more than about 20 years old, is often sufficient only for millennial-scale interpretation. Here we assess the age control for 84 published and unpublished records from lakes and meadows in the Great Basin, California, and desert southwest, and use Bayesian modeling to evaluate the 95% uncertainty ranges for the 42 best-dated records. In the Late Holocene, about half of the 42 records have <400-year mean uncertainty ranges; however, high-precision age control is especially critical for young records, used to develop an accurate understanding of a proxy’s response to known climate variations. In the Middle Holocene, records vary from 400 to >800-year mean uncertainty and records of the Early Holocene have 600- to >1400-year mean uncertainty ranges. We find that the largest control on modeled uncertainties is dating density, with at least 2 dates/kyr being optimal and suggest obtaining “range-finder” dates at the onset of a study to better predict the total number of dates needed for an adequate age model. Such a density avoids a commonly observed phenomenon of significant peaks in uncertainty arising in gaps between age control points. Analysis of the uncertainties associated with proxy shifts reveal that more than half are >400 years. Although such large uncertainties currently prevent sub-centennial interpretations in most cases, increased dating density, strategic use of limited funds (including budgeting for a 2 date/kyr minimum at the proposal stage), construction of age-depth models with Bayesian methods, and critical evaluation of chronological uncertainty will shed light on past climate variability at finer timescales, enhancing our understanding of global and regional drivers of western U.S. climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microwave Debinding of Ceramics Produced by Additive Manufacturing

Microwave-assisted debinding offers an innovative approach to processing 3D-printed engineering ceramics. Ceramic parts produced with photopolymer-based additive manufacturing techniques require thermal debinding to remove polymers that bind ceramic particles during the printing process. Microwave-assisted debinding significantly reduces processing times and offers energy savings over conventional thermal treatments due to higher heating rates and more uniform heating. Finite-element modeling of the debinding process allows for the optimization and prediction of temperature distribution, stress development, and potential defects, leading to improved process control and material quality.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗