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At least 1,369 records · Page 76

Numerical modeling of coronal mass ejections based on various pre-event model atmospheres

We examine how the initial state (pre-event corona) affects the numerical MHD simulation for a coronal mass ejection (CME). Earlier simulations based on a pre-event corona with a homogeneous density and temperature distribution at lower boundary (i.e. solar surface) have been used to analyze the role of streamer properties in determining the characteristics of loop-like transients. The present paper extends these studies to show how a broader class of global coronal properties leads not only to different types of CME's, but also modifies the adjacent quiet corona and/or coronal holes. We consider four pre-event coronal cases: (1) Constant boundary conditions and a polytropic gas with gamma = 1.05; (2) Non-constant (latitude dependent) boundary conditions and a polytropic gas with gamma = 1.05; (3) Constant boundary conditions with a volumetric energy source and gamma = 1.67; (4) Non-constant (latitude dependent) boundary conditions with a volumetric energy source and gamma = 1.67. In all models, the pre-event magnetic fields separate the corona into closed field regions (streamers) and open field regions. The CME's initiation is simulated by introducing at the base of the corona, within the streamer region, a standard pressure pulse and velocity change. Boundary values are determined using MHD characteristic theory. The simulations show how different CME's, including loop-like transients, clouds, and bright rays, might occur. There are significant new features in comparison to published results. We conclude that the pre-event corona is a crucial factor in dictating CME's properties.

Suess, S. T.↗

Numerical Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections Based on Various Pre-event Model Atmospheres

We examine how the initial state (pre-event corona) affects the numerical MHD simulation for a coronal mass ejection (CME). Earlier simulations based on a pre-event corona with a homogeneous density and temperature distribution, at the lower boundary (i.e., solar surface) have been used to analyze the role of streamer properties in determining the characteristics of loop-like transients. The present paper extends these studies to show how a broader class of global coronal properties leads not only to different types of CME's, but also modifies the adjacent quiet corona and/or coronal holes. We consider four pre-event coronal cases: (1) constant boundary conditions and a polytropic gas with gamma = 1.05; (2) non-constant (latitude dependent) boundary conditions and a polytropic gas with gamma = 1.05; (3) constant boundary conditions with a volumetric energy source and gamma = 1.67; (4) non-constant (latitude dependent) boundary conditions with a volumetric energy source and gamma = 1.67. In all models, the pre-event magnetic fields separate the corona into closed field regions (streamers) and open field regions. The CME's initiation is simulated by introducing at the base of the corona, within the streamer region, a standard pressure pulse and velocity change. Boundary values are determined using magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) characteristic theory. The simulations show how different CME's, including loop-like transients, clouds and bright rays, might occur. There are significant new features in comparison to published results. We conclude that the pre-event corona is a crucial factor in dictating CME's properties.

Wang, A. H.↗

Progressive Aerodynamic Model Identification From Dynamic Water Tunnel Test of the F-16XL Aircraft

Development of a general aerodynamic model that is adequate for predicting the forces and moments in the nonlinear and unsteady portions of the flight envelope has not been accomplished to a satisfactory degree. Predicting aerodynamic response during arbitrary motion of an aircraft over the complete flight envelope requires further development of the mathematical model and the associated methods for ground-based testing in order to allow identification of the model. In this study, a general nonlinear unsteady aerodynamic model is presented, followed by a summary of a linear modeling methodology that includes test and identification methods, and then a progressive series of steps suggesting a roadmap to develop a general nonlinear methodology that defines modeling, testing, and identification methods. Initial steps of the general methodology were applied to static and oscillatory test data to identify rolling-moment coefficient. Static measurements uncovered complicated dependencies of the aerodynamic coefficient on angle of attack and sideslip in the stall region making it difficult to find a simple analytical expression for the measurement data. In order to assess the effect of sideslip on the damping and unsteady terms, oscillatory tests in roll were conducted at different values of an initial offset in sideslip. Candidate runs for analyses were selected where higher order harmonics were required for the model and where in-phase and out-of-phase components varied with frequency. From these results it was found that only data in the angle-of-attack range of 35 degrees to 37.5 degrees met these requirements. From the limited results it was observed that the identified models fit the data well and both the damping-in-roll and the unsteady term gain are decreasing with increasing sideslip and motion amplitude. Limited similarity between parameter values in the nonlinear model and the linear model suggest that identifiability of parameters in both terms may be a problem. However, the proposed methodology can still be used with careful experiment design and carefully selected values of angle of attack, sideslip, amplitude, and frequency of the oscillatory data.

Murphy, Patrick C.↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-29062-DND

After more than three decades of research, the role of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) in stratospheric ozone depletion is well established. However, important questions remain unanswered that have limited our understanding of PSC processes and how to accurately represent them in global models, calling into question our prognostic capabilities for future ozone loss in a changing climate. A more complete picture of PSC processes on vortex-wide scales is emerging from a suite of contemporary satellite missions: the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on Envisat (2002-2012), the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) on Aura (2004-present), and the Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) on CALIPSO (2006-present). These datasets have motivated numerous research activities that both extend and challenge our present knowledge of PSC processes and modeling capabilities. The SPARC PSC initiative was organized in January 2015 to address key questions related to PSCs and their representation in global models with the following main objectives: identify key PSC parameters required by global models; identify strengths and limitations of the PSC datasets; define a methodology to obtain the key PSC properties required by models from the observational datasets; develop a state of the art PSC climatology; and identify remaining open science questions. In this presentation, we describe the PSCi activity, key findings, and remaining open questions.

Michael C Pitts↗

Numerical models for the collapse and fragmentation of centrally condensed molecular cloud cores

The gravitational collapse and fragmentation of centrally condensed molecular cloud cores are investigated using a new hydrodynamical code. The numerical scheme is second-order accurate and uses explicit finite difference methods to advance the fluid variables on a 3D Cartesian grid. Two initial power-law density profiles, rho varies as r exp -1 and rho varies as r exp -2, are considered, as well as two initial density perturbations in the azimuthal coordinate theta, rho-i - rho(1 + a cos 2theta) where a = 0.1 and 0.5. Fragmentation is found to be possible in these centrally condensed cores if the initial conditions also include differential rotation. Models which collapse with initial uniform rotation do not produce fragments. If molecular cloud cores are indeed centrally condensed, as suggested by observations of star-forming regions and by studies of ambipolar diffusion, then differential rotation may be a mechanism for producing binary protostars during gravitational collapse.

Myhill, Elizabeth A.↗

Submillimeter-Wave Cloud Ice Radiometry

Submillimeter-wave cloud ice radiometry is a new and innovative technique for characterizing cirrus ice clouds. Cirrus clouds affect Earth's climate and hydrological cycle by reflecting incoming solar energy, trapping outgoing IR radiation, sublimating into vapor, and influencing atmospheric circulation. Since uncertainties in the global distribution of cloud ice restrict the accuracy of both climate and weather models, successful development of this technique could provide a valuable tool for investigating how clouds affect climate and weather. Cloud ice radiometry could fill an important gap in the observational capabilities of existing and planned Earth-observing systems. Using submillimeter-wave radiometry to retrieve properties of ice clouds can be understood with a simple model. There are a number of submillimeter-wavelength spectral regions where the upper troposphere is transparent. At lower tropospheric altitudes water vapor emits a relatively uniform flux of thermal radiation. When cirrus clouds are present, they scatter a portion of the upwelling flux of submillimeter-wavelength radiation back towards the Earth as shown in the diagram, thus reducing the upward flux o f energy. Hence, the power received by a down-looking radiometer decreases when a cirrus cloud passes through the field of view causing the cirrus cloud to appear radiatively cool against the warm lower atmospheric thermal emissions. The reduction in upwelling thermal flux is a function of both the total cloud ice content and mean crystal size. Radiometric measurements made at multiple widely spaced frequencies permit flux variations caused by changes in crystal size to be distinguished from changes in ice content, and polarized measurements can be used to constrain mean crystal shape. The goal of the cloud ice radiometry program is to further develop and validate this technique of characterizing cirrus. A multi-frequency radiometer is being designed to support airborne science and spacecraft validation missions. This program has already extended the initial millimeter-wave modeling studies to submillimeter-wavelengths and has improved the realism of the cloud scattering models. Additionally a proof-of-concept airborne submillimeter-wave radiometer was constructed and fielded. It measured a radiometric signal from cirrus confirming the basic technical feasibility of this technique. This program is a cooperative effort of the University of Colorado, Colorado State University, Swales Aerospace, and Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Additional information is contained in the original.

Walter, Steven J.↗

Utilization of satellite data in mesoscale models of severe weather

The impact of the diagnostic initialization of divergence on short-range precipitation forecasts produced by a model, a numerical study of a storm, collaborative modeling and diagnostic studies, and a numerical investigation of the impact of SEASAT surface wind data used in the static initialization of the North Atlantic Storm of 9-10 September 1978 are summerized.

Warner, T. T.↗

Optical systems integrated modeling

An integrated modeling capability that provides the tools by which entire optical systems and instruments can be simulated and optimized is a key technology development, applicable to all mission classes, especially astrophysics. Many of the future missions require optical systems that are physically much larger than anything flown before and yet must retain the characteristic sub-micron diffraction limited wavefront accuracy of their smaller precursors. It is no longer feasible to follow the path of 'cut and test' development; the sheer scale of these systems precludes many of the older techniques that rely upon ground evaluation of full size engineering units. The ability to accurately model (by computer) and optimize the entire flight system's integrated structural, thermal, and dynamic characteristics is essential. Two distinct integrated modeling capabilities are required. These are an initial design capability and a detailed design and optimization system. The content of an initial design package is shown. It would be a modular, workstation based code which allows preliminary integrated system analysis and trade studies to be carried out quickly by a single engineer or a small design team. A simple concept for a detailed design and optimization system is shown. This is a linkage of interface architecture that allows efficient interchange of information between existing large specialized optical, control, thermal, and structural design codes. The computing environment would be a network of large mainframe machines and its users would be project level design teams. More advanced concepts for detailed design systems would support interaction between modules and automated optimization of the entire system. Technology assessment and development plans for integrated package for initial design, interface development for detailed optimization, validation, and modeling research are presented.

Shannon, Robert R.↗

Micro and Macro Segregation in Alloys Solidifying with Equiaxed Morphology

To understand macro segregation formation in Al-Cu alloys, experiments were run under terrestrial gravity (1g) and under low gravity during parabolic flights (10(exp -2) g). Alloys of two different compositions (2% and 5% Cu) were solidified at two different cooling rates. Systematic microscopic and SEM observations produced microstructural and segregation maps for all samples. These maps may be used as benchmark experiments for validation of microstructure evolution and segregation models. As expected, the macro segregation maps are very complex. When segregation was measured along the central axis of the sample, the highest macro segregation for samples solidified at 1g was obtained for the lowest cooling rate. This behavior is attributed to the longer time available for natural convection and shrinkage flow to affect solute redistribution. In samples solidified under low-g, the highest macro-segregation was obtained at the highest cooling rate. In general, low-gravity solidification resulted in less segregation. To explain the experimental findings, an analytical (Flemings-Nereo) and a numerical model were used. For the numerical model, the continuum formulation was employed to describe the macroscopic transports of mass, energy, and momentum, associated with the microscopic transport phenomena, for a two-phase system. The model proposed considers that liquid flow is driven by thermal and solutal buoyancy, and by solidification shrinkage. The Flemings-Nereo model explains well macro segregation in the initial stages of low-gravity segregation. The numerical model can describe the complex macro segregation pattern and the differences between low- and high-gravity solidification.

Stefanescu, Doru M.↗

Evaluation of Cloud-Resolving Model Intercomparison Simulations Using TWP-ICE Observations: Precipitation and Cloud Structure

The Tropical Warm Pool.International Cloud Experiment (TWP ]ICE) provided extensive observational data sets designed to initialize, force, and constrain atmospheric model simulations. In this first of a two ]part study, precipitation and cloud structures within nine cloud ]resolving model simulations are compared with scanning radar reflectivity and satellite infrared brightness temperature observations during an active monsoon period from 19 to 25 January 2006. Seven of nine simulations overestimate convective area by 20% or more leading to general overestimation of convective rainfall. This is balanced by underestimation of stratiform rainfall by 5% to 50% despite overestimation of stratiform area by up to 65% because of a preponderance of very low stratiform rain rates in all simulations. All simulations fail to reproduce observed radar reflectivity distributions above the melting level in convective regions and throughout the troposphere in stratiform regions. Observed precipitation ]sized ice reaches higher altitudes than simulated precipitation ]sized ice despite some simulations that predict lower than observed top ]of ]atmosphere infrared brightness temperatures. For the simulations that overestimate radar reflectivity aloft, graupel is the cause with one ]moment microphysics schemes whereas snow is the cause with two ]moment microphysics schemes. Differences in simulated radar reflectivity are more highly correlated with differences in mass mean melted diameter (Dm) than differences in ice water content. Dm is largely dependent on the mass ]dimension relationship and gamma size distribution parameters such as size intercept (N0) and shape parameter (m). Having variable density, variable N0, or m greater than zero produces radar reflectivities closest to those observed.

Varble, Adam↗

On error detection in the dynamics part of primitive equation models

Rossby-Haurwitz waves have been commonly employed as initial conditions for testing the dynamics part of global atmospheric models. Difficulties arise in connection with the primitive equation (PE) model. Chao and Geller (1982) have suggested that it would be better if normal mode solutions of the linearized primitive equations would be used as initial conditions. However, tests involving normal mode conditions are not adequate for the detection of errors in the nonlinear terms. The present investigation has the objective to review the study conducted by Chao and Geller and to provide tests for the nonlinear terms.

Chao, W. C.↗

Initial energy and perihelion distributions of Oort-cloud comets

A Monte Carlo model of stellar perturbations of the Oort cloud is used to study the distributions in energy and perihelion of comets entering the planetary region for the first time. The model is run for a variety of initial states and a range of velocity perturbations. In all cases the resulting orbits are uniformly distributed in perihelion distance in the planetary region, q less than 20 AU. Most orbits are confined to a fairly narrow range in 1/a and hyperbolic orbits are rare.

Weissman, P. R.↗

Accurate Modeling of the Postbuckling Response of Composite Panels with Skewed Stiffeners

Modeling procedures which predict accurately the postbuckling response of composite panels with skewed stiffeners are presented. A particular experimental program is considered and detailed finite element models are created to represent the conditions in the experiment. First, a simple baseline model with minimal detail is defined. Then, a number of modeling refinements that improve the accuracy of the model are identified. These refinements are applied individually to the baseline model to assess the effect of each refinement on the predicted response. The individual refinements are then combined to create an advanced finite element model. In addition to model refinements which affect the overall panel response, a modeling procedure for simulating nonuniform initial load introduction that is specific to an particular experiment is described and demonstrated. By implementing a number of modeling refinements, a finite element model is developed which improves the correlation between the measured and predicted responses. The skewed stiffener detail and anisotropic skin in the selected problem create axial-shear stiffness coupling which makes this problem sensitive to the constraint on the shear displacement. The remainder of the modeling refinements considered are applicable to general structural configurations. The results presented may be used to guide future efforts to improve correlation between predicted and measured responses for post buckled stiffened panels.

Young, Richard D.↗

Particle Size Distributions Obtained Through Unfolding 2D Sections: Towards Accurate Distributions of Nebular Solids in the Allende Meteorite

Size distributions of nebular solids in chondrites suggest an efficient sorting of these early forming objects within the protoplanetary disk. The effect of this sorting has been documented by investigations of modal abundances of CAIs (e.g., [1-4]) and chondrules (e.g., [5-8]). Evidence for aerodynamic sorting in the disk is largely qualitative, and needs to be carefully assessed. It may be a way of concentrating these materials into planetesimal-mass clumps, perhaps 100 fs of ka after they formed. A key parameter is size/density distributions of particles (i.e., chondrules, CAIs, and metal grains), and in particular, whether the radius-density product (rxp) is a better metric for defining the distribution than r alone [9]. There is no consensus between r versus rxp based models. Here we report our initial tests and preliminary results, which when expanded will be used to test the accuracy of current dynamical disk models.

Christoffersen, P. A.↗

The Impact of ARM on Climate Modeling

Climate models are among humanity's most ambitious and elaborate creations. They are designed to simulate the interactions of the atmosphere, ocean, land surface, and cryosphere on time scales far beyond the limits of deterministic predictability, and including the effects of time-dependent external forcings. The processes involved include radiative transfer, fluid dynamics, microphysics, and some aspects of geochemistry, biology, and ecology. The models explicitly simulate processes on spatial scales ranging from the circumference of the Earth down to one hundred kilometers or smaller, and implicitly include the effects of processes on even smaller scales down to a micron or so. The atmospheric component of a climate model can be called an atmospheric global circulation model (AGCM). In an AGCM, calculations are done on a three-dimensional grid, which in some of today's climate models consists of several million grid cells. For each grid cell, about a dozen variables are time-stepped as the model integrates forward from its initial conditions. These so-called prognostic variables have special importance because they are the only things that a model remembers from one time step to the next; everything else is recreated on each time step by starting from the prognostic variables and the boundary conditions. The prognostic variables typically include information about the mass of dry air, the temperature, the wind components, water vapor, various condensed-water species, and at least a few chemical species such as ozone. A good way to understand how climate models work is to consider the lengthy and complex process used to develop one. Lets imagine that a new AGCM is to be created, starting from a blank piece of paper. The model may be intended for a particular class of applications, e.g., high-resolution simulations on time scales of a few decades. Before a single line of code is written, the conceptual foundation of the model must be designed through a creative envisioning that starts from the intended application and is based on current understanding of how the atmosphere works and the inventory of mathematical methods available.

atmospheric circulation↗

Toward Improved Land Surface Initialization in Support of Regional WRF Forecasts at the Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS)

SPoRT/SERVIR/RCMRD/KMS Collaboration: Builds off strengths of each organization. SPoRT: Transition of satellite, modeling and verification capabilities; SERVIR‐Africa/RCMRD: International capacity-building expertise; KMS: Operational organization with regional weather forecasting expertise in East Africa. Hypothesis: Improved land‐surface initialization over Eastern Africa can lead to better temperature, moisture, and ultimately precipitation forecasts in NWP models. KMS currently initializes Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with NCEP/Global Forecast System (GFS) model 0.5‐deg initial / boundary condition data. LIS will provide much higher‐resolution land‐surface data at a scale more representative to regional WRF configuration. Future implementation of real‐time NESDIS/VIIRS vegetation fraction to further improve land surface representativeness.

Case, Jonathan L.↗