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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,369 records · Page 76
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Demography, dynamics and data: building confidence for simulating changes in the world's forests

Vegetation demographic models (VDMs) are advanced tools for simulating forest responses to climate and land-use changes, and are essential for projecting carbon cycling and large-scale forest management strategies. Despite their increasing incorporation into Earth System Models, VDMs differ in their demographic assumptions, with no prior quantitative comparison of their performance. We benchmarked nine VDMs against observational data from boreal, temperate and tropical sites, assessing their accuracy in predicting tree growth, carbon turnover, biomass stocks and size distributions. Models were simulated under consistent climate conditions with postdisturbance recovery monitored for at least 420 yr. Postdisturbance carbon recovery trajectories showed significant variability while remaining within observational ranges. Initial regrowth rates varied substantially (0.03-0.60, 0.18-0.70 and 0.35-1.10 kgCm-2 yr-1 for boreal, temperate and tropical sites, respectively), influenced by each model's initial forest state. Models captured mature forest carbon content but showed compensating effects between overestimated growth and underestimated mortality rates. This first multi-model benchmarking identifies growth and mortality rates as critical calibration targets and highlights the need to refine postdisturbance establishment conditions for model development. We outline specific benchmarking variables needed to improve predictions of forest responses to environmental change.

demographic vegetation model benchmarking↗
DOE OSTI2023

Insights on Simulating Summer Warming of the Great Lakes: Understanding the Behavior of a Newly Developed Coupled Lake-Atmosphere Modeling System

The Laurentian Great Lakes are the world's largest freshwater system and regulate the climate of the Great Lakes region, which has been increasingly experiencing climatic, hydrological, and ecological changes. An accurate mechanistic representation of the Great Lakes thermal structure in Regional Climate Models (RCMs) is paramount to studying the climate of this region. Currently, RCMs have primarily represented the Great Lakes through coupled one-dimensional (1D) column lake models; this approach works well for small inland lakes but is unable to resolve the realistic hydrodynamics of the Great Lakes and leads to inaccurate representations of lake surface temperature (LST) that influence regional climate and weather patterns. This work overcomes this limitation by developing a fully two-way coupled modeling system using the Weather Research and Forecasting model and a three-dimensional (3D) hydrodynamic model. The coupled model system resolves the interactive physical processes between the atmosphere, lake, and surrounding watersheds; and validated against a range of observational data. The model is then used to investigate the potential impacts of lake-atmosphere coupling on the simulated summer LST of Lake Superior. By evaluating the difference between our two-way coupled modeling system and our observation-driven modeling system, we find that coupled-lake atmosphere dynamics can lead to a higher LST during June-September through higher net surface heat flux entering the lake in June and July and a lower net surface heat flux entering the lake in August and September. The unstratified water in June distributes the entering surface heat flux throughout the water column leading to a minor LST increase, while the stratified waters of July create a conducive thermal structure for the water surface to warm rapidly under the higher incoming surface heat flux. This research provides insight into the coupled modeling system behavior, which is critical for enhancing our predictive understanding of the Great Lakes climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hemispheric Asymmetry of Phase Partition in Mixed‐Phase Clouds Based on Near Global‐Scale Airborne Observations

Mixed-phase clouds contribute to substantial uncertainties in global climate models due to their complex microphysical properties. Former model evaluations almost exclusively rely on satellite observations to assess cloud phase distributions globally. This study investigated mixed-phase cloud properties using near global-scale in situ observation data sets from 14 flight campaigns in combination with collocated output from a global climate model. The Southern Hemisphere (SH) shows significantly higher occurrence frequencies and higher mass fractions of supercooled liquid water than Northern Hemisphere (NH) based on observations at 0.2 and 100 km horizontal scales. Such hemispheric asymmetry is not captured by the model. The model also consistently overestimates liquid water content (LWC) in all cloud phases but shows ice water content (IWC) biases that vary with phase. Key processes contributing to model biases in phase partition can be identified through the combination of evaluation of phase frequency, liquid mass fraction, LWC and IWC.

Yang, Ching An [San Jose State University, CA (Uni↗
DOE OSTI2023

Increased drought and extreme events over continental United States under high emissions scenario

The frequency, severity, and extent of climate extremes in future will have an impact on human well-being, ecosystems, and the effectiveness of emissions mitigation and carbon sequestration strategies. The specific objectives of this study were to downscale climate data for US weather stations and analyze future trends in meteorological drought and temperature extremes over continental United States (CONUS). We used data from 4161 weather stations across the CONUS to downscale future precipitation projections from three Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6), specifically for the high emission scenario SSP5 8.5. Comparing historic observations with climate model projections revealed a significant bias in total annual precipitation days and total precipitation amounts. The average number of annual precipitation days across CONUS was projected to be 205 ± 26, 184 ± 33, and 181 ± 25 days in the BCC, CanESM, and UKESM models, respectively, compared to 91 ± 24 days in the observed data. Analyzing the duration of drought periods in different ecoregions of CONUS showed an increase in the number of drought months in the future (2023–2052) compared to the historical period (1989–2018). The analysis of precipitation and temperature changes in various ecoregions of CONUS revealed an increased frequency of droughts in the future, along with longer durations of warm spells. Eastern temperate forests and the Great Plains, which encompass the majority of CONUS agricultural lands, are projected to experience higher drought counts in the future. Drought projections show an increasing trend in future drought occurrences due to rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. Our high-resolution climate projections can inform policy makers about the hotspots and their anticipated future trajectories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1978

On the role of steepened structures and drift waves in equatorial spread F

A description is presented of a unified model of equatorial spread F which organizes much of the observational data and theoretical results in a self-consistent way. It is suggested that an initial bottomside instability nonlinearly evolves to the point that very steep gradients develop and that these steepened structures are responsible for the power spectra observed by probe experiments. This primary process is very likely the Rayleigh-Taylor instability. Observations indicate that some of the bottomside structures rise into the topside. It is shown that the observed gradients on the edges of these rising bubbles should be unstable to drift waves with a linear growth rate of about 1 per second and a perpendicular wavelength, for maximum growth, near the ion gyroradius.

Costa, E.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Estimation of effective hydrologic properties of soils from observations of vegetation density

An existing one-dimensional model of the annual water balance is reviewed. Slight improvements are made in the method of calculating the bare soil component of evaporation, and in the way surface retention is handled. A natural selection hypothesis, which specifies the equilibrium vegetation density for a given, water limited, climate-soil system, is verified through comparisons with observed data and is employed in the annual water balance of watersheds in Clinton, Ma., and Santa Paula, Ca., to estimate effective areal average soil properties. Comparison of CDF's of annual basin yield derived using these soil properties with observed CDF's provides excellent verification of the soil-selection procedure. This method of parameterization of the land surface should be useful with present global circulation models, enabling them to account for both the non-linearity in the relationship between soil moisture flux and soil moisture concentration, and the variability of soil properties from place to place over the Earth's surface.

Tellers, T. E.↗
NASA NTRS1987

An investigation of short period oscillations of the solar irradiance and their time variations

Measurements of solar irradiance fluctuations by the Active Cavity Radiometer (ACRIM) instrument onboard the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) show variations on a time scale of about 5 minutes due to solar p-mode oscillations, as well as longer-term variations related to solar magnetic activity. The question was studied whether the p-mode frequencies change with time as a result of changing solar structure associated with the activity cycle. The ACRIM data on SMM are particularly well-suited for this purpose, because the instrument operated continuously from February 1980 to December 1980 and again from May 1984 to the present. The main activity entailed a detailed study of the observational data to determine if a change in the p-mode frequencies is evident from the time of solar maximum to that of solar minimum. It was concluded that the measured eigenfrequencies were significantly higher during the 1980 time frame than during the 1984 to 1986 time frame. The conclusion that there is significant change in the eigenfrequencies with the activity cycle remains only tentative, and needs confirmation from analysis of more data during the upcoming solar maximum.

Noyes, Robert W.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inference for Nonparanormal Partial Correlation via Regularized Rank-Based Nodewise Regression

Abstract Partial correlation is a common tool in studying conditional dependence for Gaussian distributed data. However, partial correlation being zero may not be equivalent to conditional independence under non-Gaussian distributions. In this paper, we propose a statistical inference procedure for partial correlations under the high-dimensional nonparanormal (NPN) model where the observed data are normally distributed after certain monotone transformations. The NPN partial correlation is the partial correlation of the normal transformed data under the NPN model, which is a more general measure of conditional dependence. We estimate the NPN partial correlations by regularized nodewise regression based on the empirical ranks of the original data. A multiple testing procedure is proposed to identify the nonzero NPN partial correlations. The proposed method can be carried out by a simple coordinate descent algorithm for lasso optimization. It is easy-to-implement and computationally more efficient compared to the existing methods for estimating NPN graphical models. Theoretical results are developed to show the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator and to justify the proposed multiple testing procedure. Numerical simulations and a case study on brain imaging data demonstrate the utility of the proposed procedure and evaluate its performance compared to the existing methods. Data used in preparation of this article were obtained from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

O(1) eV sterile neutrino in f(R) gravity

We refer [1] to the role of an additional O(1) eV sterile neutrino in modified gravity models. We find parameter constraints in particular f(R) gravity model using following up-to-dated cosmological data: measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropy, the CMB lensing potential, the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO), the cluster mass function and the Hubble constant. It was obtained for the sterile neutrino mass 0.47 eV < m{sub ν,sterile} < 1 eV (2σ) assuming that the sterile neutrinos are thermalized and the active neutrinos are massless, not significantly larger than in the standard cosmology model within the same data set: 0.45 eV < m{sub ν,sterile} < 0.92 eV (2σ). But, if the mass of sterile neutrino is fixed and equals ≈ 1.5 eV according to various anomalies in neutrino oscillation experiments, f(R) gravity is much more consistent with observation data than the CDM model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Surrogate multi-fidelity data and model fusion for scientific discovery and uncertainty quantification in Earth System Models

This whitepaper addresses the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD)’s predictability challenges in modeling the integrated water cycle and data-model integration. Specifically, it focuses on reducing and characterizing the uncertainty in the representation of process models for unresolved physics, either due to model resolution or limited by the physical under standing or computational efficiency, and the use of observational data for in-situ process parameter optimization within ESM. The described methods may also be used to determine the nature of responses (e.g. strength and direction), and hence to identify critical processes that drive the overall ESM responses to perturbation in the forcing

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Data management strategy to improve global use of ocean acidification data and information

Ocean acidification (OA) refers to the general decrease in pH of the global ocean as a result of absorbing anthropogenic CO 2 emitted in the atmosphere since preindustrial times (sabine et al., 2004). There is, however, considerable variability in ocean acidification, and many careful measurements need to be made and compared in order to obtain scientifically valid information for the assessment of patterns, trends, and impacts over a range of spatial and temporal scales, and to understand the process involved. A single country or institution cannot undertaken measurements of worldwide coastal and open ocean OA changes; therefore, international cooperation is needed to achieve that goal. Here, the OA data that have been, and are being, collected represent a significant public investment. To this end, it is critically important that researchers (and others) around the world are easily able to find and use reliable OA information that range from observing data (from time-series moorings, process studies, and research cruises), to biological response experiments (e.g., mesocosm), data products, and model output.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1971

A method of computing periods of cyclic phenomena.

Use of an analysis of Expected Mean Square Deviations to search for periodicities in an observational data sample is described. The statistic for testing the null hypothesis of nonperiodicity is derived from a partitioning of the total sum of squared deviations from the mean. Unlike most existing methods, the present one does not require equally spaced observations. No assumptions are made concerning the statistical nature of spacing intervals. The method is illustrated by numerical examples.

Jurkevich, I.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Spectra, fluxes, and observability of gamma rays from dark matter annihilation in the Galaxy

Details of the physics of gamma-ray production by the annihilation of dark matter particles in the Galaxy are presented. Improved gamma-ray spectra and fluxes are calculated and compared with present observational data on cosmic gamma-ray fluxes at high Galactic latitudes. A comparison with the gamma-ray flux from cosmic-ray interactions is made. It is found that gamma-rays from dark matter annihilation are most potentially observable from patches of the sky at high Galactic latitudes in directions having an unusually low total column density of gas and from a dark matter core at the Galactic center.

Stecker, F. W.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Evaluation of Cloud-Resolving Model Intercomparison Simulations Using TWP-ICE Observations: Precipitation and Cloud Structure

The Tropical Warm Pool.International Cloud Experiment (TWP ]ICE) provided extensive observational data sets designed to initialize, force, and constrain atmospheric model simulations. In this first of a two ]part study, precipitation and cloud structures within nine cloud ]resolving model simulations are compared with scanning radar reflectivity and satellite infrared brightness temperature observations during an active monsoon period from 19 to 25 January 2006. Seven of nine simulations overestimate convective area by 20% or more leading to general overestimation of convective rainfall. This is balanced by underestimation of stratiform rainfall by 5% to 50% despite overestimation of stratiform area by up to 65% because of a preponderance of very low stratiform rain rates in all simulations. All simulations fail to reproduce observed radar reflectivity distributions above the melting level in convective regions and throughout the troposphere in stratiform regions. Observed precipitation ]sized ice reaches higher altitudes than simulated precipitation ]sized ice despite some simulations that predict lower than observed top ]of ]atmosphere infrared brightness temperatures. For the simulations that overestimate radar reflectivity aloft, graupel is the cause with one ]moment microphysics schemes whereas snow is the cause with two ]moment microphysics schemes. Differences in simulated radar reflectivity are more highly correlated with differences in mass mean melted diameter (Dm) than differences in ice water content. Dm is largely dependent on the mass ]dimension relationship and gamma size distribution parameters such as size intercept (N0) and shape parameter (m). Having variable density, variable N0, or m greater than zero produces radar reflectivities closest to those observed.

Varble, Adam↗
DOE OSTI2023

Carbon Organisms Rhizosphere and Protection in Soil Environment model script and input data for soil moisture-respiration responses in tropical forests

Objectives: Climatic drying is predicted for many tropical forests, yet models remain poorly parameterized for tropical forests, hampering predictions of forest-climate feedbacks. We applied an integrated model–experiment approach, parameterizing an ecosystem model Carbon Organisms Rhizosphere and Protection in the Soil Environment (CORPSE) with tropical forest observational data, and comparing model predictions with a field drying manipulation. We hypothesized that drying would suppress soil CO2 fluxes (i.e., respiration) in already-drier tropical forests, but increases CO2 fluxes in wetter tropical forests by alleviating anaerobiosis. We measured soil CO2 fluxes, soil moisture, soil temperature, and forest floor biomass during wet-dry cycles (2015 – 2022) in four Panamanian forests that vary in rainfall and soil fertility. We used the field data to parameterize and run tests in the model.Results: Measured CO2 fluxes declined in the dry season and peaked in the early wet season ahead of peak soil moisture, resulting in a lower soil moisture optimum for respiration than previously modeled. We used this data to parameterize the model, which then predicted increased soil CO2 fluxes in wetter and fertile forests with drying, and decreased fluxes in drier, infertile forests. In contrast to model predictions, a chronic throughfall exclusion experiment in the forests initially suppressed soil CO2 fluxes across forests, with sustained suppression after four years in the wettest forest only (-28 ± 4% during the dry season), but elevated soil CO2 fluxes in a fertile forest after four years (+75 ± 28% during the late wet season), as predicted by the model. The unexpected negative drying effect in the wettest, most infertile forest could have resulted from reduced vertical flushing of nutrients into soils. Including hydro-nutrient interactions in ecosystem models could improve predictions of tropical forest-climate feedbacks (results presented in Cusack et al. 2023). Datasets included: Code files:CORPSE_array.py: Defines the equations of the CORPSE modelCORPSE_solvers: Functions for running the CORPSE model using either iterative or ordinary differential equation (ODE) solversrun_Panama_sims.py: Read in datasets and run the model simulations for this studyInput data:PanamaGradientEcosystemChem_BT_CPools_20152016CO2_DC_20190615.xlsx: Plot characteristics used in running model simulationsLiCor compiled surface flux only to 2020_03 DC_20200825.xlsx: Surface gas exchange fluxes used in model-data comparisonsPARCHED litterfall data for Ben Sulman LD 20200902.xlsx: Litterfall data used to drive model simulationsInitialization data:state_500y_20190823.csv: Initial state of model pools based on previous spinup runsOutput data:Outputs/prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations of multiple sites using original model moisture response function.Outputs/updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations of multiple sites using updated model moisture response function.Outputs/dry15_prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 15%, using original moisture response function.Outputs/dry15_updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 15%, using updated moisture response function.Outputs/dry30_prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 30%, using original moisture response function.Outputs/dry30_updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with soil moisture reduced by 30%, using updated moisture response function.Outputs/latestart_prev_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with extended dry season, using original moisture response function.Outputs/latestart_updated_moisture_response.csv: Simulations with extended dry season, using updated moisture response function.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using original moisture response function.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear_dried.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using original moisture response function, with soil moisture reduced by 25%.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear_updated_moisture_response.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using updated moisture response function.Outputs/[site name]_oneyear_updated_moisture_response_dried.csv: One-year simulation for each site in expanded site list using updated moisture response function, with soil moisture reduced by 25%.Field plot location data:There is also a .kml file that includes coordinates for all 32 plots included in the study of four forests (n = 4 throughfall reduction and n = 4 control plots per site).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Data Report on the Newest Batch of PCEA Graphite for the VHTR Baseline Graphite Characterization Program

This report details a comparison of mechanical and physical properties from the first billet of extruded PCEA nuclear-grade graphite from the newest batch of PCEA procured from GrafTech. Testing has largely been completed on three of the billets from the original batch of PCEA, with data distributions for those billets exhibiting a much wider range of values when compared to the distributions of properties from other grades. A higher propensity for extremely low values or specimens that broke while machining or handling was also characteristic of the billets from the first batch, owing to unusually large fissures or disparate flaws in the billets in an as-manufactured state. Coordination with GrafTech prior to placing the order for a second batch of PCEA included discussions on these large disparate flaws and how to prevent them during the manufacturing process. This report provides a comparison of the observed data distributions from properties measured in the first billet from the new batch of PCEA with those observed in the original batch, in order that an evaluation of tighter control of the manufacturing process and the outcome of these controls on final properties can be ascertained. Additionally, this billet of PCEA is the first billet to formally include measurements from two alternate test techniques that will become part of the Baseline Graphite Characterization database – the three-point bend test on sub-sized cylinders and the Brazilian disc splitting tensile strength test. As the program moves forward, property distributions from these two tests will be based on specimen geometries that match specimen geometries being used in the irradiated Advanced Graphite Creep (AGC) program. This will allow a more thorough evaluation of both the utility of the test and expected variability in properties when using those approaches on the constrained geometries of specimens irradiated in the Advanced Test Reactor as part of the AGC experiment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1972

Photometry and polarimetry of V 1057 Cygni.

Evaluation of extensive photometric and polarimetric data over a six-month interval for V 1057 Cyg. The polarization appears to be constant and of interstellar origin; the photometry, which extends nearly six octaves from the ultraviolet to 22 microns in the infrared, indicates that the total observed luminosity is decreasing - having now declined about 10% from its earlier level. A model characterized by two circumstellar shells which absorb and reradiate short-wavelength stellar flux from an underlying A1-type star provides the best fit to the observational data. The present variability, however, cannot be due to circumstellar activity, but appears to originate in the star itself.

Rieke, G.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Heterogeneous physicochemistry of the winter polar stratosphere

Present chemical theories of the Antarctic ozone hole assume that heterogeneous reactions involving polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) are the precursor of springtime ozone depletions. However, none of the theories quantify the rates of proposed heterogeneous processed, and none utilize the extensive data base on PSC's. Thus, all of the theories must be considered incomplete until the heterogeneous mechanisms are properly defined. A unified treatment developed of the cloud related processes, both physical and chemical, and the importance of these processes using observation data is calibrated. The rates are compared competitive heterogeneous processes to place reasonable limits on critical mechanisms such as the denitrification and dechlorination of the polar winter stratosphere. Among the subjects addressed here are the physical/chemical properties of PSC's including their relevant microphysical, optical and compositional characteristics, mass transfer rates of gaseous constituents to cloud particles, adsorption, accommodation and sticking coefficients on cloud particles, time constants for condensation, absorption and other microphysical processes, effects of solubility and vapor pressure on cloud composition, the statistics of cloud processing of chemically active condensible species, rate limiting steps in heterogeneous chemical reactions, and the nonlinear dependence of ozone loss on physical and chemical parameters.

Turco, R. P.↗