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NASA NTRS2012

Comparison of Ejection Events in the Jet and Accretion Disc Outflows in 3C 111

We present a comparison of the parameters of accretion disc outflows and the jet of the broad-line radio galaxy 3C 111 on sub-pc scales. We make use of published X-ray observations of ultra-fast outflows (UFOs) and new 43 GHz VLBA images to track the jet knots ejection. We find that the superluminal jet coexists with the mildly relativistic outflows on sub-pc scales, possibly indicating a transverse stratification of a global flow. The two are roughly in pressure equilibrium, with the UFOs potentially providing additional support for the initial jet collimation. The UFOs are much more massive than the jet, but their kinetic power is probably about an order of magnitude lower, at least for the observations considered here. However, their momentum flux is equivalent and both of them are powerful enough to exert a concurrent feedback impact on the surrounding environment. A link between these components is naturally predicted in the context of MHD models for jet/outflow formation. However, given the high radiation throughput of AGNs, radiation pressure should also be taken into account. From the comparison with the long-term 2-10 keV RXTE light curve we find that the UFOs are preferentially detected during periods of increasing flux. We also find the possibility to place the UFOs within the known X-ray dips-jet ejection cycles, which has been shown to be a strong proof of the disc-jet connection, in analogue with stellar-mass black holes. However, given the limited number of observations presently available, these relations are only tentative and additional spectral monitoring is needed to test them conclusively.

Tombesi, F.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Grail Refinements to Lunar Seismic Structure

To probe a planet's interior, seismology provides the most direct constraints on the variables that govern the dynamic properties of the body. However, the GRAIL (Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory) mission's high-resolution measurements of the lunar gravity field provide constraints on crustal thickness, mantle structure, core radius and stratification, and core state (solid vs. molten). These data complement seismic investigations, and joint interpretation permits improved constraints on the Moon's internal structure. Joint interpretation of disparate geophysical datasets helps reduce drawbacks that can result from analyzing them individually. The Apollo seismic network was situated on the lunar nearside surface in a roughly equilateral triangle having sides approximately 1000 km long, with stations 12/14 nearly co-located at one corner. Due to this limited geographical extent, near-surface ray coverage from moonquakes is low, but increase with depth. In comparison, gravity surveys and their resulting gravity anomaly maps have traditionally offered optimal resolution at crustal depths. Gravimetric maps and seismic data sets are therefor well suited to joint inversion, since the complementary information reduces inherent model ambiguity. We will perform a joint inversion of Apollo seismic delay times and gravity data collected by GRAIL lunar gravity mission, in order to recover seismic velocity and density as a function of latitude, longitude and depth within the Moon. We will relate density (rho) to seismic velocity (v) using a linear relationship that is allowed to be depth-dependent. The corresponding coefficient (B) can reflect a variety of material properties that vary with depth, including temperature and composition. The inversion seeks to recover the set of rho, v, and B perturbations that minimize (in a least-squares sense) the difference between the observed and calculated data.

Weber, Renee C.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Shape-induced Gravitational Sorting of Saharan Dust During Transatlantic Voyage: Evidence from CALIOP Lidar Depolarization Measurements

Motivated by the physical picture of shape-dependent air resistance and, consequently, shape-induced differential sedimentation of dust particles, we searched for and found evidence of dust particle asphericity affecting the evolution and distribution of dust-scattered light depolarization ratio (delta). Specifically, we examined a large data set of Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) observations of Saharan dust from June to August 2007. Observing along a typical transatlantic dust track, we find that (1) median delta is uniformly distributed between 2 and 5 km altitudes as the elevated dust leaves the west coast of Africa, thereby indicating uniformly random mixing of particle shapes with height; (2) vertical homogeneity of median delta breaks down during the westward transport: between 2 and 5 km delta increases with altitude and this increase becomes more pronounced with westward progress; (3) delta tends to increase at higher altitude (greater than 4 km) and decrease at lower altitude (less than 4 km) during the westward transport. All these features are captured qualitatively by a minimal model (two shapes only), suggesting that shape-induced differential settling and consequent sorting indeed contribute significantly to the observed temporal evolution and vertical stratification of dust properties. By implicating particle shape as a likely cause of gravitational sorting, these results will affect the estimates of radiative transfer through Saharan dust layers.

CALIPSO↗
NASA NTRS2014

APC: A New Code for Atmospheric Polarization Computations

A new polarized radiative transfer code Atmospheric Polarization Computations (APC) is described. The code is based on separation of the diffuse light field into anisotropic and smooth (regular) parts. The anisotropic part is computed analytically. The smooth regular part is computed numerically using the discrete ordinates method. Vertical stratification of the atmosphere, common types of bidirectional surface reflection and scattering by spherical particles or spheroids are included. A particular consideration is given to computation of the bidirectional polarization distribution function (BPDF) of the waved ocean surface.

surface reflection↗
NASA NTRS2014

Tri-Gas Pressurization System Testing and Modeling for Cryogenic Applications

The use of Tri‐gas in rocket propulsion systems is somewhat of a new technology. This paper defines Tri‐gas as a mixture of gases composed largely of helium with a small percentage of a stoichiometric mixture of hydrogen and oxygen. When exposed to a catalyst the hydrogen and oxygen in the mixture combusts, significantly raising the temperature of the mixture. The increase in enthalpy resulting from the combustion process significantly decreases the required quantity of gas needed to pressurize the ullage of the vehicle propellant tanks. The objective of this effort was to better understand the operating characteristics of Tri‐gas in a pressurization system with low temperature applications. In conjunction with ongoing programs at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, an effort has been undertaken to evaluate the operating characteristics of Tri‐gas through modeling and bench testing. Through improved understanding of the operating characteristics, the risk of using this new technology in a launch vehicle propulsion system was reduced. Bench testing of Tri‐gas was a multistep process that targeted gas characteristics and performance aspects that pose a risk to application in a pressurization system. Pressurization systems are vital to propulsion system performance. Keeping a target ullage pressure in propulsions tanks is necessary to supply propellant at the conditions and flow rates required to maintain desired engine functionality. The first component of testing consisted of sampling Tri‐gas sources that had been stagnant for various lengths of time in order to determine the rate at which stratification takes place. Second, a bench test was set up in which Tri‐gas was sent through a catalyst bed. This test was designed to evaluate the performance characteristics of Tri‐gas, under low temperature inlet temperatures, in a flight‐like catalyst bed reactor. The third, most complex, test examined the performance characteristics of Tri‐gas at low temperature temperatures in a test configuration built to more closely resemble a vehicle pressurization system. The results of these bench tests address various risks that all relate to underperformance of Tri‐gas pressurization systems.

Taylor, B.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Direct Numerical Simulation of a Weakly Stratified Turbulent Wake

Direct numerical simulation (DNS) is used to investigate a time-dependent turbulent wake evolving in a stably stratified background. A large initial Froude number is chosen to allow the wake to become fully turbulent and axisymmetric before stratification affects the spreading rate of the mean defect. The uncertainty introduced by the finite sample size associated with gathering statistics from a simulation of a time-dependent flow is reduced, compared to earlier simulations of this flow. The DNS reveals the buoyancy-induced changes to the turbulence structure, as well as to the mean-defect history and the terms in the mean-momentum and turbulence-kinetic-energy budgets, that characterize the various states of this flow - namely the three-dimensional (essentially unstratified), non-equilibrium (or 'wake-collapse') and quasi-two-dimensional (or 'two-component') regimes observed elsewhere for wakes embedded in both weakly and strongly stratified backgrounds. The wake-collapse regime is not accompanied by transfer (or 'reconversion') of the potential energy of the turbulence to the kinetic energy of the turbulence, implying that this is not an essential feature of stratified-wake dynamics. The dependence upon Reynolds number of the duration of the wake-collapse period is demonstrated, and the effect of the details of the initial/near-field conditions of the wake on its subsequent development is examined.

Redford, J. A.↗
NASA NTRS2013

First Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Timing Study

NASA's LSP, GSDO and other programs use the probability of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning occurrence issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) in their daily and weekly lightning probability forecasts. These organizations use this information when planning potentially hazardous outdoor activities, such as working with fuels, or rolling a vehicle to a launch pad, or whenever personnel will work outside and would be at-risk from lightning. These organizations would benefit greatly if the 45 WS could provide more accurate timing of the first CG lightning strike of the day. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) has made significant improvements in forecasting the probability of lightning for the day, but forecasting the time of the first CG lightning with confidence has remained a challenge. To address this issue, the 45 WS requested the AMU to determine if flow regimes, wind speed categories, or a combination of the two could be used to forecast the timing of the first strike of the day in the Kennedy Space Center (KSC)/Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) lightning warning circles. The data was stratified by various sea breeze flow regimes and speed categories in the surface to 5,000-ft layer. The surface to 5,000-ft layer was selected since that is the layer the 45 WS uses to predict the behavior of sea breeze fronts, which are the dominant influence on the occurrence of first lightning in Florida during the warm season. Due to small data sample sizes after stratification, the AMU could not determine a statistical relationship between flow regimes or speed categories and the time of the first CG strike.. As expected, although the amount and timing of lightning activity varies by time of day based on the flow regimes and speed categories, there are extended tails of low lightning activity making it difficult to specify times when the threat of the first lightning flash can be avoided. However, the AMU developed a graphical user interface with input from the 45 WS that allows forecasters to visualize the climatological frequencies of the timing of the first lightning strike. This tool should contribute directly to the 45 WS goal of improving lightning timing capability for its NASA, US Air Force and commercial customers.

statistical analysis↗
NASA NTRS2014

GRAIL Refinements to Lunar Seismic Structure

Gravity field measurements are perhaps the most numerous of the indirect observations relevant to the Moon's internal structure. Multiple recent missions have mapped the global lunar gravity field, each one improving upon the resolution of the last. The details of the Moon's deepest structure, including the parameters that define the lunar core, however, were still largely unaddressed by pre-GRAIL gravity measurements, which were not high enough resolution to resolve the tidal coefficients at a sufficient degree of accuracy. Current constraints on core size and state arise from other indirect measurements, including lunar laser ranging, magnetic induction studies, and analyses of elemental abundances in depth-derived mare basalts. These inferences vary widely, but when considered together with structure models derived from the seismic data gathered during the Apollo missions, a schematic of the lunar interior containing a partially molten deepest mantle layer overlying molten outer and solid inner core layers was obtained. Seismology provides the most direct constraints on the variables that govern the dynamic properties of the body. However, the GRAIL mission's high-resolution measurements of the lunar gravity field are being used to constrain the interior structure of the Moon using a "crust to core" approach. GRAIL's constraints on crustal thickness, mantle structure, core radius and stratification, and core state (solid vs. molten) therefore complement seismic investigations. This work focuses on expanding our knowledge of the Moon's internal structure using joint gravity and seismic analyses, which will improve constraints on the deep lunar mantle and core.

Weber, Renee C.↗
NASA NTRS2015

TankSIM: A Cryogenic Tank Performance Prediction Program

Accurate prediction of the thermodynamic state of the cryogenic propellants in launch vehicle tanks is necessary for mission planning and successful execution. Cryogenic propellant storage and transfer in space environments requires that tank pressure be controlled. The pressure rise rate is determined by the complex interaction of external heat leak, fluid temperature stratification, and interfacial heat and mass transfer. If the required storage duration of a space mission is longer than the period in which the tank pressure reaches its allowable maximum, an appropriate pressure control method must be applied. Therefore, predictions of the pressurization rate and performance of pressure control techniques in cryogenic tanks are required for development of cryogenic fluid long-duration storage technology and planning of future space exploration missions. This paper describes an analytical tool, Tank System Integrated Model (TankSIM), which can be used for modeling pressure control and predicting the behavior of cryogenic propellant for long-term storage for future space missions. It is written in the FORTRAN 90 language and can be compiled with any Visual FORTRAN compiler. A thermodynamic vent system (TVS) is used to achieve tank pressure control. Utilizing TankSIM, the following processes can be modeled: tank self-pressurization, boiloff, ullage venting, and mixing. Details of the TankSIM program and comparisons of its predictions with test data for liquid hydrogen and liquid methane will be presented in the final paper.

Bolshinskiy, L. G.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Comparison of Computational Results with a Low-g, Nitrogen Slosh and Boiling Experiment

This paper compares a fluid/thermal simulation, in Fluent, with a low-g, nitrogen slosh and boiling experiment. In 2010, the French Space Agency, CNES, performed cryogenic nitrogen experiments in a low-g aircraft campaign. From one parabolic flight, a low-g interval was simulated that focuses on low-g motion of nitrogen liquid and vapor with significant condensation, evaporation, and boiling. The computational results are compared with high-speed video, pressure data, heat transfer, and temperature data from sensors on the axis of the cylindrically shaped tank. These experimental and computational results compare favorably. The initial temperature stratification is in good agreement, and the two-phase fluid motion is qualitatively captured. Temperature data is matched except that the temperature sensors are unable to capture fast temperature transients when the sensors move from wet to dry (liquid to vapor) operation. Pressure evolution is approximately captured, but condensation and evaporation rate modeling and prediction need further theoretical analysis.

Cryogenic Fluid Storage↗
NASA NTRS2013

Mid-Pliocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Not Unlike Modern

In the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), eight state-of-the-art coupled climate models have simulated the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP, 3.264 to 3.025 Ma). Here, we compare the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), northward ocean heat transport and ocean stratification simulated with these models. None of the models participating in PlioMIP simulates a strong mid-Pliocene AMOC as suggested by earlier proxy studies. Rather, there is no consistent increase in AMOC maximum among the PlioMIP models. The only consistent change in AMOC is a shoaling of the overturning cell in the Atlantic, and a reduced influence of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) at depth in the basin. Furthermore, the simulated mid-Pliocene Atlantic northward heat transport is similar to the pre-industrial. These simulations demonstrate that the reconstructed high-latitude mid-Pliocene warming can not be explained as a direct response to an intensification of AMOC and concomitant increase in northward ocean heat transport by the Atlantic.

Heat transfer↗
NASA NTRS2015

Hazard Assessment from Storm Tides and Rainfall on a Tidal River Estuary

Here, we report on methods and results for a model-based flood hazard assessment we have conducted for the Hudson River from New York City to Troy/Albany at the head of tide. Our recent work showed that neglecting freshwater flows leads to underestimation of peak water levels at up-river sites and neglecting stratification (typical with two-dimensional modeling) leads to underestimation all along the Hudson. As a result, we use a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model and merge streamflows and storm tides from tropical and extratropical cyclones (TCs, ETCs), as well as wet extratropical cyclone (WETC) floods (e.g. freshets, rain-on-snow events). We validate the modeled flood levels and quantify error with comparisons to 76 historical events. A Bayesian statistical method is developed for tropical cyclone streamflows using historical data and consisting in the evaluation of (1) the peak discharge and its pdf as a function of TC characteristics, and (2) the temporal trend of the hydrograph as a function of temporal evolution of the cyclone track, its intensity and the response characteristics of the specific basin. A k-nearest-neighbors method is employed to determine the hydrograph shape. Out of sample validation tests demonstrate the effectiveness of the method. Thus, the combined effects of storm surge and runoff produced by tropical cyclones hitting the New York area can be included in flood hazard assessment. Results for the upper Hudson (Albany) suggest a dominance of WETCs, for the lower Hudson (at New York Harbor) a case where ETCs are dominant for shorter return periods and TCs are more important for longer return periods (over 150 years), and for the middle-Hudson (Poughkeepsie) a mix of all three flood events types is important. However, a possible low-bias for TC flood levels is inferred from a lower importance in the assessment results, versus historical event top-20 lists, and this will be further evaluated as these preliminary methods and results are finalized. Future funded work will quantify the influences of sea level rise and flood adaptation plans (e.g. surge barriers). It would also be valuable to examine how streamflows from tropical cyclones and wet cool-season storms will change, as this factor will dominate at upriver locations.

Hazard assessment↗
NASA NTRS2014

Global Ocean Phytoplankton

Marine phytoplankton are responsible for roughly half the net primary production (NPP) on Earth, fixing atmospheric CO2 into food that fuels global ocean ecosystems and drives the ocean's biogeochemical cycles. Phytoplankton growth is highly sensitive to variations in ocean physical properties, such as upper ocean stratification and light availability within this mixed layer. Satellite ocean color sensors, such as the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS; McClain 2009) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; Esaias 1998), provide observations of sufficient frequency and geographic coverage to globally monitor physically-driven changes in phytoplankton distributions. In practice, ocean color sensors retrieve the spectral distribution of visible solar radiation reflected upward from beneath the ocean surface, which can then be related to changes in the photosynthetic phytoplankton pigment, chlorophyll- a (Chla; measured in mg m-3). Here, global Chla data for 2013 are evaluated within the context of the 16-year continuous record provided through the combined observations of SeaWiFS (1997-2010) and MODIS on Aqua (MODISA; 2002-present). Ocean color measurements from the recently launched Visible and Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS; 2011-present) are also considered, but results suggest that the temporal calibration of the VIIRS sensor is not yet sufficiently stable for quantitative global change studies. All MODISA (version 2013.1), SeaWiFS (version 2010.0), and VIIRS (version 2013.1) data presented here were produced by NASA using consistent Chla algorithms.

phytoplankton↗
NASA NTRS2015

Comparison of Computational Results with a Low-g, Nitrogen Slosh and Boiling Experiment

The proposed paper will compare a fluid/thermal simulation, in FLUENT, with a low-g, nitrogen slosh experiment. The French Space Agency, CNES, performed cryogenic nitrogen experiments in several zero gravity aircraft campaigns. The computational results have been compared with high-speed photographic data, pressure data, and temperature data from sensors on the axis of the cylindrically shaped tank. The comparison between these experimental and computational results is generally favorable: the initial temperature stratification is in good agreement, and the two-phase fluid motion is qualitatively captured.

Boiling---Phase Transformations↗
NASA NTRS2016

Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms: Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2C Global Warming Could Be Dangerous

We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that increase subsurface ocean warming and ice shelf melting. Cold meltwater and induced dynamical effects cause ocean surface cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic, thus increasing Earth's energy imbalance and heat flux into most of the global ocean's surface. Southern Ocean surface cooling, while lower latitudes are warming, increases precipitation on the Southern Ocean, increasing ocean stratification, slowing deepwater formation, and increasing ice sheet mass loss. These feedbacks make ice sheets in contact with the ocean vulnerable to accelerating disintegration. We hypothesize that ice mass loss from the most vulnerable ice, sufficient to raise sea level several meters, is better approximated as exponential than by a more linear response. Doubling times of 10, 20 or 40 years yield multi-meter sea level rise in about 50, 100 or 200 years. Recent ice melt doubling times are near the lower end of the 10-40-year range, but the record is too short to confirm the nature of the response. The feedbacks, including subsurface ocean warming, help explain paleoclimate data and point to a dominant Southern Ocean role in controlling atmospheric CO2, which in turn exercised tight control on global temperature and sea level. The millennial (500-2000-year) timescale of deep-ocean ventilation affects the timescale for natural CO2 change and thus the timescale for paleo-global climate, ice sheet, and sea level changes, but this paleo-millennial timescale should not be misinterpreted as the timescale for ice sheet response to a rapid, large, human-made climate forcing. These climate feedbacks aid interpretation of events late in the prior interglacial, when sea level rose to C6-9m with evidence of extreme storms while Earth was less than 1 C warmer than today. Ice melt cooling of the North Atlantic and Southern oceans increases atmospheric temperature gradients, eddy kinetic energy and baroclinicity, thus driving more powerful storms. The modeling, paleoclimate evidence, and ongoing observations together imply that 2 C global warming above the preindustrial level could be dangerous. Continued high fossil fuel emissions this century are predicted to yield (1) cooling of the Southern Ocean, especially in the Western Hemisphere; (2) slowing of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation, warming of the ice shelves, and growing ice sheet mass loss; (3) slowdown and eventual shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation with cooling of the North Atlantic region; (4) increasingly powerful storms; and (5) nonlinearly growing sea level rise, reaching several meters over a timescale of 50-150 years. These predictions, especially the cooling in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic with markedly reduced warming or even cooling in Europe, differ fundamentally from existing climate change assessments. We discuss observations and modeling studies needed to refute or clarify these assertions.

Computer simulation↗
NASA NTRS2016

Spatial Sampling of Weather Data for Regional Crop Yield Simulations

Field-scale crop models are increasingly applied at spatio-temporal scales that range from regions to the globe and from decades up to 100 years. Sufficiently detailed data to capture the prevailing spatio-temporal heterogeneity in weather, soil, and management conditions as needed by crop models are rarely available. Effective sampling may overcome the problem of missing data but has rarely been investigated. In this study the effect of sampling weather data has been evaluated for simulating yields of winter wheat in a region in Germany over a 30-year period (1982-2011) using 12 process-based crop models. A stratified sampling was applied to compare the effect of different sizes of spatially sampled weather data (10, 30, 50, 100, 500, 1000 and full coverage of 34,078 sampling points) on simulated wheat yields. Stratified sampling was further compared with random sampling. Possible interactions between sample size and crop model were evaluated. The results showed differences in simulated yields among crop models but all models reproduced well the pattern of the stratification. Importantly, the regional mean of simulated yields based on full coverage could already be reproduced by a small sample of 10 points. This was also true for reproducing the temporal variability in simulated yields but more sampling points (about 100) were required to accurately reproduce spatial yield variability. The number of sampling points can be smaller when a stratified sampling is applied as compared to a random sampling. However, differences between crop models were observed including some interaction between the effect of sampling on simulated yields and the model used. We concluded that stratified sampling can considerably reduce the number of required simulations. But, differences between crop models must be considered as the choice for a specific model can have larger effects on simulated yields than the sampling strategy. Assessing the impact of sampling soil and crop management data for regional simulations of crop yields is still needed.

upscaling↗
NASA NTRS2015

Real-Time Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station High-Resolution Model Implementation and Verification

Customer: NASA's Launch Services Program (LSP), Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO), and Space Launch System (SLS) programs. NASA's LSP, GSDO, SLS and other programs at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) use the daily and weekly weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) as decision tools for their day-to-day and launch operations on the Eastern Range (ER). For example, to determine if they need to limit activities such as vehicle transport to the launch pad, protect people, structures or exposed launch vehicles given a threat of severe weather, or reschedule other critical operations. The 45 WS uses numerical weather prediction models as a guide for these weather forecasts, particularly the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) 1.67 kilometer Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Considering the 45 WS forecasters' and Launch Weather Officers' (LWO) extensive use of the AFWA model, the 45 WS proposed a task at the September 2013 Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Tasking Meeting requesting the AMU verify this model. Due to the lack of archived model data available from AFWA, verification is not yet possible. Instead, the AMU proposed to implement and verify the performance of an ER version of the AMU high-resolution WRF Environmental Modeling System (EMS) model (Watson 2013) in real-time. The tasking group agreed to this proposal; therefore the AMU implemented the WRF-EMS model on the second of two NASA AMU modeling clusters. The model was set up with a triple-nested grid configuration over KSC/CCAFS based on previous AMU work (Watson 2013). The outer domain (D01) has 12-kilometer grid spacing, the middle domain (D02) has 4-kilometer grid spacing, and the inner domain (D03) has 1.33-kilometer grid spacing. The model runs a 12-hour forecast every hour, D01 and D02 domain outputs are available once an hour and D03 is every 15 minutes during the forecast period. The AMU assessed the WRF-EMS 1.33-kilometer domain model performance for the 2014 warm season (May-September). Verification statistics were computed using the Model Evaluation Tools, which compared the model forecasts to observations. The mean error values were close to 0 and the root mean square error values were less than 1.8 for mean sea-level pressure (millibars), temperature (degrees Kelvin), dewpoint temperature (degrees Kelvin), and wind speed (per millisecond), all very small differences between the forecast and observations considering the normal magnitudes of the parameters. The precipitation forecast verification results showed consistent under-forecasting of the precipitation object size. This could be an artifact of calculating the statistics for each hour rather than for the entire 12-hour period. The AMU will continue to generate verification statistics for the 1.33-kilometer WRF-EMS domain as data become available in future cool and warm seasons. More data will produce more robust statistics and reveal a more accurate assessment of model performance. Once the formal task was complete, the AMU conducted additional work to better understand the wind direction results. The results were stratified diurnally and by wind speed to determine what effects the stratifications would have on the model wind direction verification statistics. The results are summarized in the addendum at the end of this report. In addition to verifying the model's performance, the AMU also made the output available in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System II (AWIPS II). This allows the 45 WS and AMU staff to customize the model output display on the AMU and Range Weather Operations AWIPS II client computers and conduct real-time subjective analyses. In the future, the AMU will implement an updated version of the WRF-EMS model that incorporates local data assimilation. This model will also run in real-time and be made available in AWIPS II.

Numerical Weather Prediction↗
NASA NTRS2016

Zero Boil-Off Tank (ZBOT) Experiment

The Zero-Boil-Off Tank (ZBOT) experiment has been developed as a small scale ISS experiment aimed at delineating important fluid flow, heat and mass transport, and phase change phenomena that affect cryogenic storage tank pressurization and pressure control in microgravity. The experiments use a simulant transparent low boiling point fluid (PnP) in a sealed transparent Dewar to study and quantify: (a) fluid flow and thermal stratification during pressurization; (b) mixing, thermal destratification, depressurization, and jet-ullage penetration during pressure control by jet mixing. The experiment will provide valuable microgravity empirical two-phase data associated with the above-mentioned physical phenomena through highly accurate local wall and fluid temperature and pressure measurements, full-field phase-distribution and flow visualization. Moreover, the experiments are performed under tightly controlled and definable heat transfer boundary conditions to provide reliable high-fidelity data and precise input as required for validation verification of state-of-the-art two-phase CFD models developed as part of this research and by other groups in the international scientific and cryogenic fluid management communities.

ISS↗