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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Trajectory Prediction Accuracy and Error Sources for Regional Jet Descents: Results of a 2010 Flight Trial at Denver International Airport using SkyWest Revenue Flights - Part II

The Efficient Descent Advisor (EDA) controller automation tool generates trajectory-based speed, path, and altitude-profile advisories to facilitate efficient, continuous descents into congested terminal airspace. While prior field trials have assessed the trajectory prediction accuracy for large jet (i.e., Boeing and Airbus) types, smaller (i.e., regional and business) jet types present unique challenges involving different descent procedures and Flight Management System (FMS) capabilities. This paper quantifies the trajectory prediction accuracy for small jet revenue flight descents based on SkyWest Canadair Regional Jet 200, 700, and 900 aircraft arrivals to Denver in the fall of 2010. Post flight test data analysis and SkyWest pilot interviews uncovered unexpected variation between flight crews due to different interpretations of (1) which fixed flight path angle (FPA) to fly based on the flight trial procedure and (2) how to fly the descent to achieve the target FPA. Pilot reports were used to select a subset of flights where pilots indicated an FPA according to the flight trial procedure to remove the unexpected variation due to (1) to focus on (2). Results for the subset for en-route descents, from prior to top of descent to the meter fix 30 to 130 nmi downstream, indicate that aircraft arrived to the meter fix six seconds early with about a twelve second standard deviation. Large FPA errors up to one degree relative to the EDA flight trial procedure were detected after the flight trial as a characteristic of the unexpected variation. It is recommended that quantitative validation be performed during future flight trials so that experimental procedures can be adjusted if unexpected results are detected.

Field Test Results↗
NASA NTRS1990

Effect of atmospherics on beamforming accuracy

Two mathematical representations of noise due to atmospheric turbulence are presented. These representations are derived and used in computer simulations of the Bartlett Estimate implementation of beamforming. Beamforming is an array processing technique employing an array of acoustic sensors used to determine the bearing of an acoustic source. Atmospheric wind conditions introduce noise into the beamformer output. Consequently, the accuracy of the process is degraded and the bearing of the acoustic source is falsely indicated or impossible to determine. The two representations of noise presented here are intended to quantify the effects of mean wind passing over the array of sensors and to correct for these effects. The first noise model is an idealized case. The effect of the mean wind is incorporated as a change in the propagation velocity of the acoustic wave. This yields an effective phase shift applied to each term of the spatial correlation matrix in the Bartlett Estimate. The resultant error caused by this model can be corrected in closed form in the beamforming algorithm. The second noise model acts to change the true direction of propagation at the beginning of the beamforming process. A closed form correction for this model is not available. Efforts to derive effective means to reduce the contributions of the noise have not been successful. In either case, the maximum error introduced by the wind is a beam shift of approximately three degrees. That is, the bearing of the acoustic source is indicated at a point a few degrees from the true bearing location. These effects are not quite as pronounced as those seen in experimental results. Sidelobes are false indications of acoustic sources in the beamformer output away from the true bearing angle. The sidelobes that are observed in experimental results are not caused by these noise models. The effects of mean wind passing over the sensor array as modeled here do not alter the beamformer output as significantly as expected.

Alexander, Richard M.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Precision of vertical position estimates from very long baseline interferometry

It is found that the precision of VLBI measurements of vertical crustal motions is limited by errors in the modeling of the propagation delay through the earth's neutral atmosphere, and by errors in finding the orientation of a fixed crust coordinate system in the VLBI reference frame. The repeatability of baseline length measurements study indicates a vertical position precision of about 8 cm, averaged over 13 sites and 4.5 years of data, while the repeatability of vertical position estimates for a Richmond, FL site is found to yield a precision of about 7 cm for 42 observations made over an 11-month period. An overall precision of 8 cm for a 24-hour VLBI observing session is obtained, and the effects of earth orientation parameter errors is contingent on the distances between the VLBI sites.

Herring, T. A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of Corn Latent Heat Flux from High Resolution Thermal Imagery

Crop evapotranspiration (ET), which is directly related to latent heat flux, is also a key indicator in determining the water status of crops. In order to estimate the latent heat flux, two-source energy balance (TSEB) models have been developed for thermal imagery from satellite platforms. However, because of the coarse resolution of thermal sensors on the satellite, distinguishing soil and vegetation is difficult which complicates the calculation process and introduces errors in latent heat estimates. In this research, high-resolution thermal datasets (0.05 m) and corresponding RGB datasets (0.03 m) were used for calculating crop latent heat flux using an adapted TSEB model. The RGB datasets were used for supervised classification of soil and vegetation, and the classification results were then used to filter the thermal mosaics to separate vegetation and soil temperatures. The vegetation temperature is used for calculating latent heat flux and the results are validated against the ground reference measurements of latent heat using a handheld porometer. The objective of this research is to introduce a workflow including an adapted TSEB model which is customized for high resolution thermal images from unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) to estimate the latent heat flux of row crops in agricultural fields. Nine dates of data collection in 2018 and 2020 have been evaluated and the root mean square error (RMSE) varies between 16 to 106 W/m2 depending on the days after planting (DAP) and the time of measurement for each day. The results indicate that the workflow introduced here is able to provide estimates of instantaneous latent heat flux (evapotranspiration) measurements for row crops in agricultural fields which will enable people to make reliable decisions related to irrigation scheduling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

The application of the reduced order model Kalman filter to motion estimation of degraded image sequences

Motion estimation is a field of great interest because of its many applications in areas such as robotics and image coding. The optic flow method is one such scheme which, although fairly accurate, is prone to error in the presence of noise. This thesis describes the use of the reduced order model Kalman filter (ROMKF) in reducing errors in displacement estimation due to degradation of the sequence. The implementation of filtering and motion estimation algorithms on the SUN workstation is also discussed. Results from preliminary testing were used to determine the degrees of freedom available for the ROMKF in the SUN software. The tests indicated that increasing the state to the left leads to slight improvement over the minimum state case. Therefore, the software uses the minimum model, with the option of adding states to the left only. The ROMKF was then used in conjunction with a hierarchical pel recursive motion estimation algorithm. Applying the ROMKF to the degraded displacements themselves generally yielded slight improvements in cases with noise degradation and noise plus blur. Filtering the images of the degraded sequence prior to motion estimation was less effective in these cases. Both methods performed badly in the case of blur alone, resulting in increased displacement errors. This is thought to be due in part to filter artifacts. Some improvements were obtained by varying the filter parameters when filtering the displacements directly. This result suggests that further study in varying filter parameters may lead to better results. The results of this thesis indicate that the ROMKF can play a part in reducing motion estimation errors from degraded sequences. However, more work needs to be done before the use of the ROMKF can be a practical solution.

Simpson, Elizabeth C.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparing the performance of density functionals in describing the adsorption of atoms and small molecules on Ni(111)

Reaction networks calculated using density functional theory (DFT) play a crucial role in understanding and predicting heterogeneous catalyst performance. However, results obtained using different density functionals can vary significantly. Accordingly, it is important to assess the accuracy of available functionals in capturing adsorption energetics derived from single-crystal adsorption microcalorimetry experiments. Here, we evaluate how different density functionals describe the molecular and dissociative adsorption of CH 3 I, the adsorption of CH 3 , I, and H, and the dissociative adsorption of CH 4 on Ni(111). First, we identify energetically-preferred adsorbed states for each adsorbate at three surface coverages and calculate the corresponding enthalpies of adsorption at 160 K. Then, we compare the results to experimental measurements published in the literature. For each adsorption process we find at least one functional that is quantitatively accurate within experimental error, but no functional is accurate (within experimental error) for all adsorption processes studied. Even when assuming an additional DFT error of ±20 kJ/mol on top of the experimental error, only the PBE-D3 and RPBE-D3 functionals are accurate for all considered adsorption systems. Overall, these results indicate that quantitative agreement between density functional theory calculations and experimental measurements is both system- and functional-dependent. Importantly, single-crystal adsorption microcalorimetry experiments will continue to play an important role for benchmarking density functionals.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1981

On the error statistics of Viterbi decoding and the performance of concatenated codes

Computer simulation results are presented on the performance of convolutional codes of constraint lengths 7 and 10 concatenated with the (255, 223) Reed-Solomon code (a proposed NASA standard). These results indicate that as much as 0.8 dB can be gained by concatenating this Reed-Solomon code with a (10, 1/3) convolutional code, instead of the (7, 1/2) code currently used by the DSN. A mathematical model of Viterbi decoder burst-error statistics is developed and is validated through additional computer simulations.

Miller, R. L.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Insights from Synthetic Star-forming Regions. II. Verifying Dust Surface Density, Dust Temperature, and Gas Mass Measurements With Modified Blackbody Fitting

We use a large data set of realistic synthetic observations (produced in Paper I of this series) to assess how observational techniques affect the measurement physical properties of star-forming regions. In this part of the series (Paper II), we explore the reliability of the measured total gas mass, dust surface density and dust temperature maps derived from modified blackbody fitting of synthetic Herschel observations. We find from our pixel-by-pixel analysis of the measured dust surface density and dust temperature a worrisome error spread especially close to star formation sites and low-density regions, where for those “contaminated” pixels the surface densities can be under/overestimated by up to three orders of magnitude. In light of this, we recommend to treat the pixel-based results from this technique with caution in regions with active star formation. In regions of high background typical in the inner Galactic plane, we are not able to recover reliable surface density maps of individual synthetic regions, since low-mass regions are lost in the far-infrared background. When measuring the total gas mass of regions in moderate background, we find that modified blackbody fitting works well (absolute error: + 9%; −13%) up to 10 kpc distance (errors increase with distance). Commonly, the initial images are convolved to the largest common beam-size, which smears contaminated pixels over large areas. The resulting information loss makes this commonly used technique less verifiable as now χ {sup 2} values cannot be used as a quality indicator of a fitted pixel. Our control measurements of the total gas mass (without the step of convolution to the largest common beam size) produce similar results (absolute error: +20%; −7%) while having much lower median errors especially for the high-mass stellar feedback phase. In upcoming papers (Paper III; Paper IV) of this series we test the reliability of measured star formation rate with direct and indirect techniques.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Metal artifact correction for x-ray computed tomography using kV and selective MV imaging

Purpose: The overall goal of this work is to improve the computed tomography (CT) image quality for patients with metal implants or fillings by completing the missing kilovoltage (kV) projection data with selectively acquired megavoltage (MV) data that do not suffer from photon starvation. When both of these imaging systems, which are available on current radiotherapy devices, are used, metal streak artifacts are avoided, and the soft-tissue contrast is restored, even for regions in which the kV data cannot contribute any information. Methods: Three image-reconstruction methods, including two filtered back-projection (FBP)-based analytic methods and one iterative method, for combining kV and MV projection data from the two on-board imaging systems of a radiotherapy device are presented in this work. The analytic reconstruction methods modify the MV data based on the information in the projection or image domains and then patch the data onto the kV projections for a FBP reconstruction. In the iterative reconstruction, the authors used dual-energy (DE) penalized weighted least-squares (PWLS) methods to simultaneously combine the kV/MV data and perform the reconstruction. Results: The authors compared kV/MV reconstructions to kV-only reconstructions using a dental phantom with fillings and a hip-implant numerical phantom. Simulation results indicated that dual-energy sinogram patch FBP and the modified dual-energy PWLS method can successfully suppress metal streak artifacts and restore information lost due to photon starvation in the kV projections. The root-mean-square errors of soft-tissue patterns obtained using combined kV/MV data are 10–15 Hounsfield units smaller than those of the kV-only images, and the structural similarity index measure also indicates a 5%–10% improvement in the image quality. The added dose from the MV scan is much less than the dose from the kV scan if a high efficiency MV detector is assumed. Conclusions: The authors have shown that it is possible to improve the image quality of kV CTs for patients with metal implants or fillings by completing the missing kV projection data with selectively acquired MV data that do not suffer from photon starvation. Numerical simulations demonstrated that dual-energy sinogram patch FBP and a modified kV/MV PWLS method can successfully suppress metal streak artifacts and restore information lost due to photon starvation in kV projections. Combined kV/MV images may permit the improved delineation of structures of interest in CT images for patients with metal implants or fillings.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Computing the binding affinity of a ligand buried deep inside a protein with the hybrid steered molecular dynamics

Computing the ligand-protein binding affinity (or the Gibbs free energy) with chemical accuracy has long been a challenge for which many methods/approaches have been developed and refined with various successful applications. False positives and, even more harmful, false negatives have been and still are a common occurrence in practical applications. Inevitable in all approaches are the errors in the force field parameters we obtain from quantum mechanical computation and/or empirical fittings for the intra- and inter-molecular interactions. These errors propagate to the final results of the computed binding affinities even if we were able to perfectly implement the statistical mechanics of all the processes relevant to a given problem. And they are actually amplified to various degrees even in the mature, sophisticated computational approaches. In particular, the free energy perturbation (alchemical) approaches amplify the errors in the force field parameters because they rely on extracting the small differences between similarly large numbers. In this paper, we develop a hybrid steered molecular dynamics (hSMD) approach to the difficult binding problems of a ligand buried deep inside a protein. Sampling the transition along a physical (not alchemical) dissociation path of opening up the binding cavity- -pulling out the ligand- -closing back the cavity, we can avoid the problem of error amplifications by not relying on small differences between similar numbers. We tested this new form of hSMD on retinol inside cellular retinol-binding protein 1 and three cases of a ligand (a benzylacetate, a 2-nitrothiophene, and a benzene) inside a T4 lysozyme L99A/M102Q(H) double mutant. In all cases, we obtained binding free energies in close agreement with the experimentally measured values. This indicates that the force field parameters we employed are accurate and that hSMD (a brute force, unsophisticated approach) is free from the problem of error amplification suffered by many sophisticated approaches in the literature.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Compression of Solar Spectroscopic Observations: a Case Study of MgII k Spectral Line Profiles Observed by NASA’s IRIS Satellite

In this study we extract the deep features and investigate the compression of the MgII k spectral line profiles observed in quiet Sun regions by NASA’s IRIS satellite. The data set of line profiles used for the analysis was obtained on April 20th, 2020, at the center of the solar disc, and contains almost 300,000 individual MgII k line profiles after data cleaning. The data are separated into train and test subsets. The train subset was used to train the autoencoder of the varying embedding layer size. The early stopping criterion was implemented on the test subset to prevent the model from overfitting. Our results indicate that it is possible to compress the spectral line profiles more than 27 times (which corresponds to the reduction of the data dimensionality from 110 to 4) while having a 4DN average reconstruction error, which is comparable to the variations in the line continuum. The mean squared error and the reconstruction error of even statistical moments sharply decrease when the dimensionality of the embedding layer increases from 1 to 4 and almost stop decreasing for higher numbers. The observed occasional improvements in training for values higher than 4 indicate that a better compact embedding may potentially be obtained if other training strategies and longer training times are used. The features learned for the critical four-dimensional case can be interpreted. In particular, three of these four features mainly control the line width, line asymmetry, and line dip formation respectively. The presented results are the first attempt to obtain a compact embedding for spectroscopic line profiles and confirm the value of this approach, in particular for feature extraction, data compression, and denoising.

SMD↗
NASA NTRS2007

Detection of Digital Elevation Model Errors Using X-band Weather Radar

Flight in Instrument Meteorological Conditions requires pilots to manipulate flight controls while referring to a Primary Flight Display. The Primary Flight Display indicates aircraft attitude along with, in some cases, many other state variables such as altitude, speed, and guidance cues. Synthetic Vision Systems have been proposed that overlay the traditional information provided on Primary Flight Displays onto a scene depicting the location of terrain and other geo-spatial features.Terrain models used by these displays must have sufficient quality to avoid providing misleading information. This paper describes how X-band radar measurements can be used as part of a monitor, and/or maintenance system, to quantify the integrity of terrain models that are used by systems such as Synthetic Vision. Terrain shadowing effects, as seen by the radar, are compared in a statistical manner against estimated shadow feature elements extracted from the stored terrain model from the perspective of the airborne observer. A test statistic is defined that enables detection of errors as small as the range resolution of the radar. Experimental results obtained from two aircraft platforms hosting certified commercial-off-the-shelf X-band radars test the premise and illustrate its potential.

Young, Steven D.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Local Spin Density Approximation Strongly Improved by a Better-Informed Local Scaling of Its Self-Interaction Correction

The Perdew−Zunger self-interaction correction (PZSIC) makes density functional approximations (DFAs) exact for all one-electron densities. However, it overcorrects in manyelectron regions, introducing errors for the uniform-density limit, where uncorrected DFAs are exact. The locally scaled PZSIC (LSIC), based on the iso-orbital indicator zσ [which distinguishes single-orbital and slowly varying density regions and is used with the local spin density approximation (LSDA)], restores the uniform-density limit and significantly improves results for many properties, including chemical reaction barrier heights, atomization energies, and ionization potentials. Yet, LSIC performs poorly for weakly bonded systems, leaving many unbound, due to limitations of its iso-orbital indicator. To correct this, in this work we propose a new local scaling, LSIC-α, based on the iso-orbital indicator ασ (which additionally identifies regions of overlapping density tails). A two-parameter scaling function of ασ is fitted to a subset of the nonbonded appropriate norms for the SCAN and r2SCAN meta- GGAs, and tested on many properties of main-group atoms, molecules, and molecular complexes. LSIC-α greatly improves the interaction energies of weakly bonded systems in the S22 data set while retaining LSIC’s accuracy for other properties. This work shows that the errors of LSDA (and presumably of higher-level DFAs) can be largely but not entirely repaired by a proper “do no harm” self-interaction correction.

Approximation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the Role of Hydrodynamics in Enhancing Height-Above-the-Nearest-Drainage Derived Synthetic Rating Curves: A Comparative Study in the Wu River Basin, Taiwan

The conventional approach to generating synthetic rating curves (SRC) using the Height-Above-the-Nearest-Drainage (HAND) method typically relies on the assumption of uniform flow, such as Manning's equation, to establish stage-discharge ratings. The zero-physics application of the uniform flow equation is insufficient for capturing detailed hydraulic features (e.g., backwater effect) and neglects the hydraulic effects from adjacent channels. This lack of hydrodynamic computation can impact the accuracy and effectiveness of riverine flood risk estimation and management. To reduce this foreseeable error, we introduce the HAND-hd workflow, which integrates sophisticated hydrodynamic computations in the production of HAND-based SRC with hydrodynamic features (SRC hd ). The results indicate that SRC hd demonstrates consistent agreement with both gauge observations and benchmark solutions. Additionally, the comparative analysis suggests that SRC hd provides notable improvements in stage-discharge ratings over conventional HAND-based SRCs, particularly in channels with mild bed gradients, where it reduces water stage prediction errors and percent biases. In steeper channel segments, SRC hd maintains comparable accuracy to conventional methods. The comprehensive evaluation in this study emphasizes the potential discrepancies and inaccuracies associated with the adoption of the uniform flow assumption in the conventional HAND-SRCs and addresses the necessity of including hydrodynamic physics in the application of HAND-based SRC (e.g., inundation map) in channels with mild gradients.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Worldwide benchmarking of cost-effective radiometers for direct and diffuse irradiance

Solar energy projects can benefit from direct normal irradiance (DNI) and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) measurements during all project phases. Several commercial measurement systems for DNI and DHI are available. Sun trackers with pyranometers and pyrheliometers can provide highly accurate measurements but are often impractical in solar energy applications. For less expensive and more robust sensors, it is often unclear which accuracy can be expected under a project site's specific atmospheric conditions. We address this challenge through our dedicated experimental comparison of relevant sensor systems (rotating shadowband irradiometer [short RSI], Delta-T SPN1, EKO MS-90, PyranoCam, Sunto CaptPro, Kipp & Zonen CSD3) at up to six sites worldwide. The RSI systems (rRMSD 3 to 8.6%, DNI; 4.8 to 7.6%, DHI) and PyranoCam (rRMSD 2.6 to 5.2%, DNI; 4.4 to 5.8%, DHI) exhibit similar error metrics and are the most accurate systems in the test. Delta-T SPN1 and EKO MS-90 (rRMSD 6.8 to 15%, DNI; 10.6 to 20.1%, DHI) but especially Kipp & Zonen CSD3 and Sunto CaptPro show significant deviations (rRMSD 17.7 to 20%, DNI; 33 to 58%, DHI). We evaluate the influence of relevant atmospheric parameters on the sensors' accuracies by a rather unique measurement setup. MS-90's DNI errors depend on DNI itself, with overestimations for low reference DNI. The deviations of SPN1's DHI and DNI measurements increase sharply in situations with high circumsolar irradiance. Also CaptPro and CSD3's increased measurement errors are related to circumsolar irradiance. For RSI and PyranoCam, only moderate influences on the measurements are identified, indicating a general applicability of these instruments.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Spin-orbit torques for current parallel and perpendicular to a domain wall

We report field- and current-induced domain wall (DW) depinning experiments in Ta\Co{sub 20}Fe{sub 60}B{sub 20}\MgO nanowires through a Hall cross geometry. While purely field-induced depinning shows no angular dependence on in-plane fields, the effect of the current depends crucially on the internal DW structure, which we manipulate by an external magnetic in-plane field. We show depinning measurements for a current sent parallel to the DW and compare its depinning efficiency with the conventional case of current flowing perpendicularly to the DW. We find that the maximum efficiency is similar for both current directions within the error bars, which is in line with a dominating damping-like spin-orbit torque (SOT) and indicates that no large additional torques arise for currents perpendicular to the DW. Finally, we find a varying dependence of the maximum depinning efficiency angle for different DWs and pinning levels. This emphasizes the importance of our full angular scans compared with previously used measurements for just two field directions (parallel and perpendicular to the DW) to determine the real torque strength and shows the sensitivity of the SOT to the precise DW structure and pinning sites.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

Quantum mechanics capacitance molecular mechanics modeling of core-electron binding energies of methanol and methyl nitrite on Ag(111) surface

We study a newly devised quantum mechanics capacitance molecular mechanics (QMCMM) method for the calculation of core-electron binding energies in the case of molecules adsorbed on metal surfaces. This yet untested methodology is applied to systems with monolayer of methanol/methyl nitrite on an Ag(111) surface at 100 K temperature. It was found out that the studied C, N, and O 1s core-hole energies converge very slowly as a function of the radius of the metallic cluster, which was ascribed to build up of positive charge on the edge of the Ag slab. Further analysis revealed that an extrapolation process can be used to obtain binding energies that deviated less than 0.5 eV against experiments, except in the case of methanol O 1s where the difference was as large as 1.8 eV. Additional QM-cluster calculations suggest that the latter error can be connected to the lack of charge transfer over the QM–CMM boundary. Thus, the results indicate that the QMCMM and QM-cluster methods can complement each other in a holistic picture of molecule-adsorbate core-ionization studies, where all types of intermolecular interactions are considered.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improving seasonal precipitation forecasts in the Western United States through statistical downscaling

Abstract Seasonal precipitation forecasts in the western United States are critical resources for water resource management, especially during winter. While current seasonal forecasting systems provide monthly precipitation forecasts operationally, their coarse resolution limits their effectiveness in capturing the localized precipitation patterns and snowpack conditions essential for water resource managers in the mountainous regions. Here, analog statistical downscaling is demonstrated as an effective approach to enhance the spatial resolution of operational seasonal forecasts provided by the North American Multi-Model Ensemble. Downscaling was performed by building an analog ‘library’, in which corresponding model forecasts and observed values during the training period were stored. In the testing period, unseen model forecasts referenced the closest historical forecast from the analog library and applied the corresponding observational value for each point. This analysis indicates that downscaled products can capture localized features more accurately than the original coarse resolution forecasts, reducing forecast error across the western United States. Moreover, downscaling individual ensemble members—rather than downscaling the ensemble mean—further reduces forecasting error for their multi-model ensemble mean products. The greatest error reductions in the downscaled product, measured by root mean squared error (RMSE), were observed at low to mid-elevations (500–2000 meters), with 50%–70% improvement relative to the original forecasts. In the higher elevations (2000 meters and above), changes in RMSE relative to the original forecast were limited to 10%–30% improvements. The improvement is more substantial for forecast systems with 10 ensemble members compared to that with 4 members, but this relationship does not hold for the system with 24 ensemble members. These findings show that analog statistical downscaling can effectively address the spatial limitations of seasonal precipitation forecasts with minimal computational cost, providing a valuable framework for enhancing coarse resolution forecasting products while providing insights into the timing of ensemble mean calculations during the downscaling process.

Vernon, B. (ORCID:0009000891670689)↗