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DOE OSTI2011

Report on INL Activities for Uncertainty Reduction Analysis of FY11

This report presents the status of activities performed at INL under the ARC Work Package on "Uncertainty Reduction Analyses" that has a main goal the reduction of uncertainties associated with nuclear data on neutronic integral parameters of interest for the design of advanced fast reactors under consideration by the ARC program. First, an analysis of experiments was carried out. For both JOYO (the first Japanese fast reactor) and ZPPR-9 (a large size zero power plutonium fueled experiment performed at ANL-W in Idaho) the performance of ENDF/B-VII.0 is quite satisfying except for the sodium void configurations of ZPPR-9, but for which one has to take into account the approximation of the modeling. In fact, when one uses a more detailed model (calculations performed at ANL in a companion WP) more reasonable results are obtained. A large effort was devoted to the analysis of the irradiation experiments, PROFIL-1 and -2 and TRAPU, performed at the French fast reactor PHENIX. For these experiments a pre-release of the ENDF/B-VII.1 cross section files was also used, in order to provide validation feedback to the CSWEG nuclear data evaluation community. In the PROFIL experiments improvements can be observed for the ENDF/B-VII.1 capture data in 238 Pu, 241 Am, 244 Cm, 97 Mo, 151 Sm, 153 Eu, and for 240 Pu(n,2n). On the other hand, 240,242 Pu, 95 Mo, 133 Cs and 145 Nd capture C/E results are worse. For the major actinides 235 U and especially 239 Pu capture C/E's are underestimated. For fission products, 105,106 Pd, 143,144 Nd and 147,149 Sm are significantly underestimated, while 101 Ru and 151 Sm are overestimated. Other C/E deviations from unity are within the combined experimental and calculated statistical uncertainty. From the TRAPU analysis, the major improvement is in the predicted 243 Cm build-up, presumably due to an improved 242 Cm capture evaluation. The COSMO experiment was also analyzed in order to provide useful feedback on fission cross sections. It was found out that ENDF/B-VII.1 238,240 Pu fission cross sections have improved with respect to VII.0 files while 242 Pu's fission cross section has not.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2013

Quantifiably secure power grid operation, management, and evolution :

This report summarizes findings and results of the Quantifiably Secure Power Grid Operation, Management, and Evolution LDRD. The focus of the LDRD was to develop decisionsupport technologies to enable rational and quantifiable risk management for two key grid operational timescales: scheduling (day-ahead) and planning (month-to-year-ahead). Risk or resiliency metrics are foundational in this effort. The 2003 Northeast Blackout investigative report stressed the criticality of enforceable metrics for system resiliency the grid s ability to satisfy demands subject to perturbation. However, we neither have well-defined risk metrics for addressing the pervasive uncertainties in a renewable energy era, nor decision-support tools for their enforcement, which severely impacts efforts to rationally improve grid security. For day-ahead unit commitment, decision-support tools must account for topological security constraints, loss-of-load (economic) costs, and supply and demand variability especially given high renewables penetration. For long-term planning, transmission and generation expansion must ensure realized demand is satisfied for various projected technological, climate, and growth scenarios. The decision-support tools investigated in this project paid particular attention to tailoriented risk metrics for explicitly addressing high-consequence events. Historically, decisionsupport tools for the grid consider expected cost minimization, largely ignoring risk and instead penalizing loss-of-load through artificial parameters. The technical focus of this work was the development of scalable solvers for enforcing risk metrics. Advanced stochastic programming solvers were developed to address generation and transmission expansion and unit commitment, minimizing cost subject to pre-specified risk thresholds. Particular attention was paid to renewables where security critically depends on production and demand prediction accuracy. To address this concern, powerful filtering techniques for spatio-temporal measurement assimilation were used to develop short-term predictive stochastic models. To achieve uncertaintytolerant solutions, very large numbers of scenarios must be simultaneously considered. One focus of this work was investigating ways of reasonably reducing this number.

Gray, Genetha Anne.↗

NASA NTRS1980

AVE-SESAME IV: 25 mb sounding data

The rawinsonde sounding program for the AVE-SESAME 4 experiment is descirbed and tabulated data at 25 mb for the 23 National Weather Service and 20 special stations participating in the experiment are presented. Soundings were taken at 3 hr intervals beginning at 1200 GMT on May 9, 1979, and ending at 1200 GMT on May 10, 1979 (nine sounding times). The method of processing is discussed, estimates of the rms errors in the data are presented, and an example of contact data is given. Reasons are given for the termination of soundings below 100 mb, and soundings are listed which exhibit abnormal characteristics.

Sienkiewicz, M. E.↗

NASA NTRS1991

ECLIPS: An extended CLIPS for backward chaining and goal-directed reasoning

Realistic production systems require an integrated combination of forward and backward reasoning to reflect appropriately the processes of natural human expert reasoning. A control mechanism that consists solely of forward reasoning is not an effective way to promptly focus the system's attention as calculation proceeds. Often, expert system programmers will attempt to compensate for this lack by using data to enforce the desired goal directed control structure. This approach is inherently flawed in that it is attempting to use data to fulfill the role of control. This paper will describe our implementation of backward chaining in C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS), and show how this has shortened and simplified various CLIPS programs. This work was done at the Aerospace Corporation, and has general applicability.

Homeier, Peter V.↗

NASA NTRS1993

ACTS mobile SATCOM experiments

Over the last decade, the demand for reliable mobile satellite communications (satcom) for voice, data, and video applications has increased dramatically. As consumer demand grows, the current spectrum allocation at L-band could become saturated. For this reason, NASA and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory are developing the Advanced Communications Technology Satellites (ACTS) mobile terminal (AMT) and are evaluating the feasibility of K/Ka-band (20/30 GHz) mobile satcom to meet these growing needs. U.S. industry and government, acting as co-partners, will evaluate K/Ka-band mobile satcom and develop new technologies by conducting a series of applications-oriented experiments. The ACTS and the AMT testbed will be used to conduct these mobile satcom experiments. The goals of the ACTS Mobile Experiments Program and the individual experiment configurations and objectives are further presented.

Abbe, Brian S.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Calculation of Free-Atom Fractions in Hydrocarbon-Fueled Rocket Engine Plume

Free atom fractions (Beta) of nine elements are calculated in the exhaust plume of CH4- oxygen and RP-1-oxygen fueled rocket engines using free energy minimization method. The Chemical Equilibrium and Applications (CEA) computer program developed by the Glenn Research Center, NASA is used for this purpose. Data on variation of Beta in both fuels as a function of temperature (1600 K - 3100 K) and oxygen to fuel ratios (1.75 to 2.25 by weight) is presented in both tabular and graphical forms. Recommendation is made for the Beta value for a tenth element, Palladium. The CEA computer code was also run to compare with experimentally determined Beta values reported in literature for some of these elements. A reasonable agreement, within a factor of three, between the calculated and reported values is observed. Values reported in this work will be used as a first approximation for pilot rocket engine testing studies at the Stennis Space Center for at least six elements Al, Ca, Cr, Cu, Fe and Ni - until experimental values are generated. The current estimates will be improved when more complete thermodynamic data on the remaining four elements Ag, Co, Mn and Pd are added to the database. A critique of the CEA code is also included.

Verma, Satyajit↗

NASA NTRS2011

Systems, methods and apparatus for generation and verification of policies in autonomic computing systems

Described herein is a method that produces fully (mathematically) tractable development of policies for autonomic systems from requirements through to code generation. This method is illustrated through an example showing how user formulated policies can be translated into a formal mode which can then be converted to code. The requirements-based programming method described provides faster, higher quality development and maintenance of autonomic systems based on user formulation of policies.Further, the systems, methods and apparatus described herein provide a way of analyzing policies for autonomic systems and facilities the generation of provably correct implementations automatically, which in turn provides reduced development time, reduced testing requirements, guarantees of correctness of the implementation with respect to the policies specified at the outset, and provides a higher degree of confidence that the policies are both complete and reasonable. The ability to specify the policy for the management of a system and then automatically generate an equivalent implementation greatly improves the quality of software, the survivability of future missions, in particular when the system will operate untended in very remote environments, and greatly reduces development lead times and costs.

Hinchey, Michael G.↗

DOE OSTI2012

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Pathway Technical Program Plan

Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). As the current Light Water Reactor (LWR) NPPs age beyond 60 years, there are possibilities for increased frequency of Systems, Structures, and Components (SSCs) degradations or failures that initiate safety-significant events, reduce existing accident mitigation capabilities, or create new failure modes. Plant designers commonly “over-design” portions of NPPs and provide robustness in the form of redundant and diverse engineered safety features to ensure that, even in the case of well-beyond design basis scenarios, public health and safety will be protected with a very high degree of assurance. This form of defense-in-depth is a reasoned response to uncertainties and is often referred to generically as “safety margin.” Historically, specific safety margin provisions have been formulated, primarily based on “engineering judgment.”

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMC) Pathway Technical Program Plan

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2014

A new Gaussian MCTDH program: Implementation and validation on the levels of the water and glycine molecules

We report the main features of a new general implementation of the Gaussian Multi-Configuration Time-Dependent Hartree model. The code allows effective computations of time-dependent phenomena, including calculation of vibronic spectra (in one or more electronic states), relative state populations, etc. Moreover, by expressing the Dirac-Frenkel variational principle in terms of an effective Hamiltonian, we are able to provide a new reliable estimate of the representation error. After validating the code on simple one-dimensional systems, we analyze the harmonic and anharmonic vibrational spectra of water and glycine showing that reliable and converged energy levels can be obtained with reasonable computing resources. The data obtained on water and glycine are compared with results of previous calculations using the vibrational second-order perturbation theory method. Additional features and perspectives are also shortly discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2016

Status of Post Irradiation Examination of FCAB and FCAT Irradiation Capsules

A series of irradiation programs are ongoing to address the need for determining the radiation tolerance of FeCrAl alloys. These irradiation programs, deemed the FCAT and FCAB irradiation programs, use the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) to irradiate second generation wrought FeCrAl alloys and early-generation powder-metallurgy (PM) oxide dispersion-strengthened (ODS) FeCrAl alloys. Irradiations have been or are being performed at temperatures of 200°C, 330°C, and 550°C from doses of 1.8 dpa up to 16 dpa. Preliminary post-irradiation examination (PIE) on low dose (<2 dpa) irradiation capsules of tensile specimens has been performed. Analysis of co-irradiated SiC thermometry have shown reasonable matching between the nominal irradiation temperatures and the target irradiation temperatures. Room temperature tensile tests have shown typical radiation-induced hardening and embrittlement at irradiations of 200°C and 330°C, but a propensity for softening when irradiated to 550°C for the wrought alloys. The PM-ODS FeCrAl specimens showed less hardening compared to the wrought alloys. Future PIE includes high temperature tensile tests on the low dose irradiation capsules as well as the determination of reference fracture toughness transition temperature, T o , in alloys irradiated to 7 dpa and higher.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1977

U.S. satellite proposals, 1945-49

Views concerning the possibility of the development of multistage rockets capable of orbiting the earth had been expressed by von Braun during an interview with members of a U.S. technical intelligence team in 1945. Recommendations to adopt a program with the ultimate objective of launching an earth satellite were submitted in October 1945 by a committee established within the Navy Bureau of Aeronautics. In 1946 it was recommended by the Aeronautical Board that the services proceed independently with their satellite studies. A report concerning the 'preliminary design of an experimental world-circling spaceship' was published by RAND on May 2, 1946. RAND in early 1949 was again asked to study for the Air Force the possible uses of earth satellites. The reasons which prevented at that time a further development and implementation of initial concepts and study results are examined

Saegesser, L. D.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Satellite Power Systems (SPS) space transportation cost analysis and evaluation

A picture of Space Power Systems space transportation costs at the present time is given with respect to accuracy as stated, reasonableness of the methods used, assumptions made, and uncertainty associated with the estimates. The approach used consists of examining space transportation costs from several perspectives to perform a variety of sensitivity analyses or reviews and examine the findings in terms of internal consistency and external comparison with analogous systems. These approaches are summarized as a theoretical and historical review including a review of stated and unstated assumptions used to derive the costs, and a performance or technical review. These reviews cover the overall transportation program as well as the individual vehicles proposed. The review of overall cost assumptions is the principal means used for estimating the cost uncertainty derived. The cost estimates used as the best current estimate are included.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1983

Assessment of NASA and RAE viscous-inviscid interaction methods for predicting transonic flow over nozzle afterbodies

The Langley Research Center of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the Royal Aircraft Establishment have undertaken a cooperative program to conduct an assessment of their patched viscous-inviscid interaction methods for predicting the transonic flow over nozzle afterbodies. The assessment was made by comparing the predictions of the two methods with experimental pressure distributions and boattail pressure drag for several convergent circular-arc nozzle configurations. Comparisons of the predictions of the two methods with the experimental data showed that both methods provided good predictions of the flow characteristics of nozzles with attached boundary layer flow. The RAE method also provided reasonable predictions of the pressure distributions and drag for the nozzles investigated that had separated boundary layers. The NASA method provided good predictions of the pressure distribution on separated flow nozzles that had relatively thin boundary layers. However, the NASA method was in poor agreement with experiment for separated nozzles with thick boundary layers due primarily to deficiencies in the method used to predict the separation location.

Putnam, L. E.↗

NASA NTRS2000

SeaWiFS Postlaunch Calibration and Validation Analyses

The effort to resolve data quality issues and improve on the initial data evaluation methodologies of the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) Project was an extensive one. These evaluations have resulted, to date, in three major reprocessings of the entire data set where each reprocessing addressed the data quality issues that could be identified up to the time of each reprocessing. The number of chapters (21) needed to document this extensive work in the SeaWiFS Postlaunch Technical Report Series requires three volumes. The chapters in Volumes 9, 10, and 11 are in a logical order sequencing through sensor calibration, atmospheric correction, masks and flags, product evaluations, and bio-optical algorithms. The first chapter of Volume 9 is an overview of the calibration and validation program, including a table of activities from the inception of the SeaWiFS Project. Chapter 2 describes the fine adjustments of sensor detector knee radiances, i.e., radiance levels where three of the four detectors in each SeaWiFS band saturate. Chapters 3 and 4 describe the analyses of the lunar and solar calibration time series, respectively, which are used to track the temporal changes in radiometric sensitivity in each band. Chapter 5 outlines the procedure used to adjust band 7 relative to band 8 to derive reasonable aerosol radiances in band 7 as compared to those in band 8 in the vicinity of Lanai, Hawaii, the vicarious calibration site. Chapter 6 presents the procedure used to estimate the vicarious calibration gain adjustment factors for bands 1-6 using the waterleaving radiances from the Marine Optical Buoy (MOBY) offshore of Lanai. Chapter 7 provides the adjustments to the coccolithophore flag algorithm which were required for improved performance over the prelaunch version. Chapter 8 is an overview of the numerous modifications to the atmospheric correction algorithm that have been implemented. Chapter 9 describes the methodology used to remove artifacts of sun glint contamination for portions of the imagery outside the sun glint mask. Finally, Chapter 10 explains a modification to the ozone interpolation method to account for actual time differences between the SeaWiFS and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) orbits.

Hooker, Stanford B.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Modeling of Unsteady Three-dimensional Flows in Multistage Machines

Despite many years of development, the accurate and reliable prediction of unsteady aerodynamic forces acting on turbomachinery blades remains less than satisfactory, especially when viewed next to the great success investigators have had in predicting steady flows. Hall and Silkowski (1997) have proposed that one of the main reasons for the discrepancy between theory and experiment and/or industrial experience is that many of the current unsteady aerodynamic theories model a single blade row in an infinitely long duct, ignoring potentially important multistage effects. However, unsteady flows are made up of acoustic, vortical, and entropic waves. These waves provide a mechanism for the rotors and stators of multistage machines to communicate with one another. In other words, wave behavior makes unsteady flows fundamentally a multistage (and three-dimensional) phenomenon. In this research program, we have has as goals (1) the development of computationally efficient computer models of the unsteady aerodynamic response of blade rows embedded in a multistage machine (these models will ultimately be capable of analyzing three-dimensional viscous transonic flows), and (2) the use of these computer codes to study a number of important multistage phenomena.

Hall, Kenneth C.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Associative Flow Rule Used to Include Hydrostatic Stress Effects in Analysis of Strain-Rate-Dependent Deformation of Polymer Matrix Composites

designing reliable composite engine cases that are lighter than the metal cases in current use. The types of polymer matrix composites that are likely to be used in such an application have a deformation response that is nonlinear and that varies with strain rate. The nonlinearity and the strain-rate dependence of the composite response are due primarily to the matrix constituent. Therefore, in developing material models to be used in the design of impact-resistant composite engine cases, the deformation of the polymer matrix must be correctly analyzed. However, unlike in metals, the nonlinear response of polymers depends on the hydrostatic stresses, which must be accounted for within an analytical model. By applying micromechanics techniques along with given fiber properties, one can also determine the effects of the hydrostatic stresses in the polymer on the overall composite deformation response. First efforts to account for the hydrostatic stress effects in the composite deformation applied purely empirical methods that relied on composite-level data. In later efforts, to allow polymer properties to be characterized solely on the basis of polymer data, researchers at the NASA Glenn Research Center developed equations to model the polymers that were based on a non-associative flow rule, and efforts to use these equations to simulate the deformation of representative polymer materials were reasonably successful. However, these equations were found to have difficulty in correctly analyzing the multiaxial stress states found in the polymer matrix constituent of a composite material. To correct these difficulties, and to allow for the accurate simulation of the nonlinear strain-rate-dependent deformation analysis of polymer matrix composites, in the efforts reported here Glenn researchers reformulated the polymer constitutive equations from basic principles using the concept of an associative flow rule. These revised equations were characterized and validated in an experimental program carried out through a university grant with the Ohio State University, wherein tensile and shear deformation data were obtained for a representative polymer for strain rates ranging from quasi-static to high rates of several hundred per second. Tensile deformation data also were obtained over a variety of strain rates and fiber orientation angles for a representative polymer matrix composite composed using the polymer.

Goldberg, Robert K.↗

NASA NTRS2014

SWIM: A Semi-Analytical Ocean Color Inversion Algorithm for Optically Shallow Waters

Ocean color remote sensing provides synoptic-scale, near-daily observations of marine inherent optical properties (IOPs). Whilst contemporary ocean color algorithms are known to perform well in deep oceanic waters, they have difficulty operating in optically clear, shallow marine environments where light reflected from the seafloor contributes to the water-leaving radiance. The effect of benthic reflectance in optically shallow waters is known to adversely affect algorithms developed for optically deep waters [1, 2]. Whilst adapted versions of optically deep ocean color algorithms have been applied to optically shallow regions with reasonable success [3], there is presently no approach that directly corrects for bottom reflectance using existing knowledge of bathymetry and benthic albedo.To address the issue of optically shallow waters, we have developed a semi-analytical ocean color inversion algorithm: the Shallow Water Inversion Model (SWIM). SWIM uses existing bathymetry and a derived benthic albedo map to correct for bottom reflectance using the semi-analytical model of Lee et al [4]. The algorithm was incorporated into the NASA Ocean Biology Processing Groups L2GEN program and tested in optically shallow waters of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. In-lieu of readily available in situ matchup data, we present a comparison between SWIM and two contemporary ocean color algorithms, the Generalized Inherent Optical Property Algorithm (GIOP) and the Quasi-Analytical Algorithm (QAA).

QAA↗