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Wind Energy Modeling and Simulation, Volume 1: Atmosphere and Plant

In order to optimise the yield of wind power from existing and future wind plants, the entire breadth of the system of a plant, from the wind field to the turbine components, needs to be modelled in the design process. The modelling and simulation approaches used in each subsystem as well as the system-wide solution methods to optimize across subsystem boundaries are described in this reference. Chapters are written by technical experts in each field, describing the current state of the art in modelling and simulation for wind plant design. This comprehensive, two-volume research reference will provide long-lasting insight into the methods that will need to be developed for the technology to advance into its next generation. Volume 1 covers the computing challenges in full turbine modelling, then discusses bridging scales in the atmosphere and turbulence modelling, wind forecasting, wind plant flow, and plant level controller design.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Polarity effects and apparent ion recombination in microionization chambers

Purpose: Microchambers demonstrate anomalous voltage-dependent polarity effects. Existing polarity and ion recombination correction factors do not account for these effects. As a result, many commercial microchamber models do not meet the specification of a reference-class ionization chamber as defined by the American Association of Physicists in Medicine. The purpose of this investigation is to determine the cause of these voltage-dependent polarity effects. Methods: A series of microchamber prototypes were produced to isolate the source of the voltage-dependent polarity effects. Parameters including ionization-chamber collecting-volume size, stem and cable irradiation, chamber assembly, contaminants, high-Z materials, and individual chamber components were investigated. Measurements were performed with electrodes coated with graphite to isolate electrode conductivity. Chamber response was measured as the potential bias of the guard electrode was altered with respect to the collecting electrode, through the integration of additional power supplies. Ionization chamber models were also simulated using COMSOL Multiphysics software to investigate the effect of a potential difference between electrodes on electric field lines and collecting volume definition. Results: Investigations with microchamber prototypes demonstrated that the significant source of the voltage-dependent polarity effects was a potential difference between the guard and collecting electrodes of the chambers. The voltage-dependent polarity effects for each prototype were primarily isolated to either the guard or collecting electrode. Polarity effects were reduced by coating the isolated electrode with a conductive layer of graphite. Polarity effects were increased by introducing a potential difference between the electrodes. COMSOL simulations further demonstrated that for a given potential difference between electrodes, the collecting volume of the chamber changed as the applied voltage was altered, producing voltage-dependent polarity effects in the chamber response. Ionization chamber measurements and COMSOL simulations demonstrated an inverse relationship between the chamber collecting volume size and the severity of voltage-dependent polarity effects on chamber response. The effect of a given potential difference on chamber polarity effects was roughly ten times greater for microchambers as compared to Farmer-type chambers. Stem and cable irradiations, chamber assembly, contaminants, and high-Z materials were not found to be a significant source of the voltage-dependent polarity effects. Conclusions: A potential difference between the guard and collecting electrodes was found to be the primary source of the voltage-dependent polarity effects demonstrated by microchambers. For a given potential difference between electrodes, the relative change in the collecting volume is smaller for larger-volume chambers, illustrating why these polarity effects are not seen in larger-volume chambers with similar guard and collecting electrode designs. Thus, for small-volume chambers, it is necessary to reduce the potential difference between the guard and collecting electrodes in order to reduce polarity effects for reference dosimetry measurements.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Computation of Alfvèn eigenmode stability and saturation through a reduced fast ion transport model in the TRANSP tokamak transport code

Alfvénic instabilities (AEs) are well known as a potential cause of enhanced fast ion transport in fusion devices. Given a specific plasma scenario, quantitative predictions of (i) expected unstable AE spectrum and (ii) resulting fast ion transport are required to prevent or mitigate the AE-induced degradation in fusion performance. Reduced models are becoming an attractive tool to analyze existing scenarios as well as for scenario prediction in time-dependent simulations. Here, in this work, a neutral beam heated NSTX discharge is used as reference to illustrate the potential of a reduced fast ion transport model, known as kick model, that has been recently implemented for interpretive and predictive analysis within the framework of the time-dependent tokamak transport code TRANSP. Predictive capabilities for AE stability and saturation amplitude are first assessed, based on given thermal plasma profiles only. Predictions are then compared to experimental results, and the interpretive capabilities of the model further discussed. Overall, the reduced model captures the main properties of the instabilities and associated effects on the fast ion population. Finally, additional information from the actual experiment enables further tuning of the model's parameters to achieve a close match with measurements.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Precautions of Using Three-Electrode Configuration to Measure Electrode Overpotential in Solid Oxide Electrochemical Cells: Insights from Finite Element Modeling

Accurate determination of electrode overpotentials is essential to assess the performance of the electrode and understand the rate-limiting steps involved. Three-electrode configuration with the use of a reference electrode at a fixed potential is a standard way to measure overpotential of a specific electrode in liquid electrochemical systems. However, application of such three-electrode configuration to solid electrochemical cells for overpotential determination is not straightforward and requires extra caution. Here we report a theoretical Finite Element Analysis on the geometrical requirements for which the reference electrode can be applied to anode- or electrolyte-supported solid oxide button cells. The modeling results suggest that the symmetry of the working and counter electrodes is the key factor determining if a reference electrode is suitable to use. For anode-supported fuel cells with asymmetrical working and counter electrodes, reference electrode cannot be used under all circumstances. To use reference electrode for overpotential measurements, electrolyte-supported cells with symmetrical semicircular-shaped electrodes are preferred. A data processing procedure has also been presented to obtain the electrode overpotential from the measured potential using the three-electrode scheme in solid oxide electrochemical cells.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Improving intermolecular interactions in DFTB3 using extended polarization from chemical-potential equalization

Semi-empirical quantum mechanical methods traditionally expand the electron density in a minimal, valence-only electron basis set. The minimal-basis approximation causes molecular polarization to be underestimated, and hence intermolecular interaction energies are also underestimated, especially for intermolecular interactions involving charged species. In this work, the third-order self-consistent charge density functional tight-binding method (DFTB3) is augmented with an auxiliary response density using the chemical-potential equalization (CPE) method and an empirical dispersion correction (D3). The parameters in the CPE and D3 models are fitted to high-level CCSD(T) reference interaction energies for a broad range of chemical species, as well as dipole moments calculated at the DFT level; the impact of including polarizabilities of molecules in the parameterization is also considered. Parameters for the elements H, C, N, O, and S are presented. The Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSD) interaction energy is improved from 6.07 kcal/mol to 1.49 kcal/mol for interactions with one charged species, whereas the RMSD is improved from 5.60 kcal/mol to 1.73 for a set of 9 salt bridges, compared to uncorrected DFTB3. For large water clusters and complexes that are dominated by dispersion interactions, the already satisfactory performance of the DFTB3-D3 model is retained; polarizabilities of neutral molecules are also notably improved. Overall, the CPE extension of DFTB3-D3 provides a more balanced description of different types of non-covalent interactions than Neglect of Diatomic Differential Overlap type of semi-empirical methods (e.g., PM6-D3H4) and PBE-D3 with modest basis sets.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

SU-C-209-02: 3D Fluoroscopic Image Generation From Patient-Specific 4DCBCT-Based Motion Models Derived From Clinical Patient Images

Purpose: We develop a method to generate time varying volumetric images (3D fluoroscopic images) using patient-specific motion models derived from four-dimensional cone-beam CT (4DCBCT). Methods: Motion models are derived by selecting one 4DCBCT phase as a reference image, and registering the remaining images to it. Principal component analysis (PCA) is performed on the resultant displacement vector fields (DVFs) to create a reduced set of PCA eigenvectors that capture the majority of respiratory motion. 3D fluoroscopic images are generated by optimizing the weights of the PCA eigenvectors iteratively through comparison of measured cone-beam projections and simulated projections generated from the motion model. This method was applied to images from five lung-cancer patients. The spatial accuracy of this method is evaluated by comparing landmark positions in the 3D fluoroscopic images to manually defined ground truth positions in the patient cone-beam projections. Results: 4DCBCT motion models were shown to accurately generate 3D fluoroscopic images when the patient cone-beam projections contained clearly visible structures moving with respiration (e.g., the diaphragm). When no moving anatomical structure was clearly visible in the projections, the 3D fluoroscopic images generated did not capture breathing deformations, and reverted to the reference image. For the subset of 3D fluoroscopic images generated from projections with visibly moving anatomy, the average tumor localization error and the 95th percentile were 1.6 mm and 3.1 mm respectively. Conclusion: This study showed that 4DCBCT-based 3D fluoroscopic images can accurately capture respiratory deformations in a patient dataset, so long as the cone-beam projections used contain visible structures that move with respiration. For clinical implementation of 3D fluoroscopic imaging for treatment verification, an imaging field of view (FOV) that contains visible structures moving with respiration should be selected. If no other appropriate structures are visible, the images should include the diaphragm. This project was supported, in part, through a Master Research Agreement with Varian Medical Systems, Inc, Palo Alto, CA.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SU-E-T-459: Dosimetric Consequences of Rotated Elliptical Proton Spots in Modeling In-Air Proton Fluence for Calculating Doses in Water of Proton Pencil Beams

Purpose: We present a study of dosimetric consequences on doses in water in modeling in-air proton fluence independently along principle axes for rotated elliptical spots. Methods: Phase-space parameters for modeling in-air fluence are the position sigma for the spatial distribution, the angle sigma for the angular distribution, and the correlation between position and angle distributions. Proton spots of the McLaren proton therapy system were measured at five locations near the isocenter for the energies of 180 MeV and 250 MeV. An elongated elliptical spot rotated with respect to the principle axes was observed for the 180 MeV, while a circular-like spot was observed for the 250 MeV. In the first approach, the phase-space parameters were derived in the principle axes without rotation. In the second approach, the phase space parameters were derived in the reference frame with axes rotated to coincide with the major axes of the elliptical spot. Monte-Carlo simulations with derived phase-space parameters using both approaches to tally doses in water were performed and analyzed. Results: For the rotated elliptical 180 MeV spots, the position sigmas were 3.6 mm and 3.2 mm in principle axes, but were 4.3 mm and 2.0 mm when the reference frame was rotated. Measured spots fitted poorly the uncorrelated 2D Gaussian, but the quality of fit was significantly improved after the reference frame was rotated. As a Result, phase space parameters in the rotated frame were more appropriate for modeling in-air proton fluence of 180 MeV protons. Considerable differences were observed in Monte Carlo simulated dose distributions in water with phase-space parameters obtained with the two approaches. Conclusion: For rotated elliptical proton spots, phase-space parameters obtained in the rotated reference frame are better for modeling in-air proton fluence, and can be introduced into treatment planning systems.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Neutronics Modeling of the pulsed plasma rocket reactor using rattlesnake

In the pulsed plasma rocket (PPR) reactor, neutron induced fission processes are utilized to implement a series of pulsed micro-explosions of very high power and eject plasma as a propellant. More specifically, projectiles (bullets) composed of moderated uranium are sent through the chamber of an unmoderated uranium barrel. By inducing rapid fission within the bullets, a plasma can be generated with appropriate delivery of neutrons. This study aims to assess the neutronics performance of the PPR reactor during normal operations using the MOOSE-based Rattlesnake code through the evaluation of the impact of the movement of the fuel bullet and the rotation of control drums on the criticality of the system. The Monte Carlo (MC) code Serpent 2 was employed to generate material-based cross sections for use in Rattlesnake and the reference neutronics solution. Cubit was used to generate the mesh for the Rattlesnake model. Parametric studies were conducted to evaluate the best approaches for cross section and mesh generation to ensure accurate results from Rattlesnake. As part of the verification process, the eigenvalue results of the system at various fuel bullet positions were obtained using Rattlesnake and compared with the reference solutions. The acceptable differences show that the Rattlesnake model with appropriate cross section and mesh generation procedure is a sufficiently accurate approximation of the continuous energy (CE) MC model for micro-sized reactors like the PPR reactor. Next, the impact of the rotation of the control drums on the system criticality was evaluated using the verified model. It was shown that the high-fidelity simulation using the deterministic code Rattlesnake can produce sufficiently accurate results for the evaluation of the reactor's neutronics performance in different phases of the normal operation with acceptable computational cost.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

In-situ Condition Monitoring of Components in Small Modular Reactors Using Process and Electrical Signature Analysis. Final report, volume 1. Development of experimental flow control loop, data analysis and plant monitoring

The research and development under this project was focused on the following three major objectives: Objective 1: Identification of critical in-vessel SMR components for remote monitoring and development of their low-order dynamic models, along with a simulation model of an integral pressurized water reactor (iPWR). Objective 2: Development of an experimental flow control loop with motor-driven valves and pumps, incorporating data acquisition and on-line monitoring interface. Objective 3: Development of stationary and transient signal processing methods for electrical signatures, machinery vibration, and for characterizing process variables for equipment monitoring. This objective includes the development of a data analysis toolbox. The following is a summary of the technical accomplishments under this project: - A detailed literature review of various SMR types and electrical signature analysis of motor-driven systems was completed. A bibliography of literature is provided at the end of this report. Assistance was provided by ORNL in identifying some key references. - A review of literature on pump-motor modeling and digital signal processing methods was performed. - An existing flow control loop was upgraded with new instrumentation, data acquisition hardware and software. The upgrading of the experimental loop included the installation of a new submersible pump driven by a three-phase induction motor. All the sensors were calibrated before full-scale experimental runs were performed. - MATLAB-Simulink model of a three-phase induction motor and pump system was completed. The model was used to simulate normal operation and fault conditions in the motor-pump system, and to identify changes in the electrical signatures. - A simulation model of an integral PWR (iPWR) was updated and the MATLAB-Simulink model was validated for known transients. The pump-motor model was interfaced with the iPWR model for testing the impact of primary flow perturbations (upsets) on plant parameters and the pump electrical signatures. Additionally, the reactor simulation is being used to generate normal operation data and data with instrumentation faults and process anomalies. A frequency controller was interfaced with the motor power supply in order to vary the electrical supply frequency. The experimental flow control loop was used to generate operational data under varying motor performance characteristics. Coolant leakage events were simulated by varying the bypass loop flow rate. The accuracy of motor power calculation was improved by incorporating the power factor, computed from motor current and voltage in each phase of the induction motor.- A variety of experimental runs were made for steady-state and transient pump operating conditions. Process, vibration, and electrical signatures were measured using a submersible pump with variable supply frequency. High correlation was seen between motor current and pump discharge pressure signal; similar high correlation was exhibited between pump motor power and flow rate. Wide-band analysis indicated high coherence (in the frequency domain) between motor current and vibration signals. - Wide-band operational data from a PWR were acquired from AMS Corporation and used to develop time-series models, and to estimate signal spectrum and sensor time constant. All the data were from different pressure transmitters in the system, including primary and secondary loops. These signals were pre-processed using the wavelet transform for filtering both low-frequency and high-frequency bands. This technique of signal pre-processing provides minimum distortion of the data, and results in a more optimal estimation of time constants of plant sensors using time-series modeling techniques.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

The SCALE Verified, Archived Library of Inputs and Data - VALID

The Verified, Archived Library of Inputs and Data (VALID) at ORNL contains high quality, independently reviewed models and results that improve confidence in analysis. VALID is developed and maintained according to a procedure of the SCALE quality assurance (QA) plan. This paper reviews the origins of the procedure and its intended purpose, the philosophy of the procedure, some highlights of its implementation, and the future of the procedure and associated VALID library. The original focus of the procedure was the generation of high-quality models that could be archived at ORNL and applied to many studies. The review process associated with model generation minimized the chances of errors in these archived models. Subsequently, the scope of the library and procedure was expanded to provide high quality, reviewed sensitivity data files for deployment through the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments (IHECSBE). Sensitivity data files for approximately 400 such models are currently available. The VALID procedure and library continue fulfilling these multiple roles. The VALID procedure is based on the quality assurance principles of ISO 9001 and nuclear safety analysis. Some of these key concepts include independent generation and review of information, generation and review by qualified individuals, use of appropriate references for design data and documentation, and retrievability of the models, results, and documentation associated with entries in the library. Some highlights of the detailed procedure are discussed to provide background on its implementation and to indicate limitations of data extracted from VALID for use by the broader community. Specifically, external users of data generated within VALID must take responsibility for ensuring that the files are used within the QA framework of their organization and that use is appropriate. The future plans for the VALID library include expansion to include additional experiments from the IHECSBE, to include experiments from areas beyond criticality safety, such as reactor physics and shielding, and to include application models. In the future, external SCALE users may also obtain qualification under the VALID procedure and be involved in expanding the library. The VALID library provides a pathway for the criticality safety community to leverage modeling and analysis expertise at ORNL.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Measurements of the thermal conductivity of reference liquids using a modified transient hot-wire needle probe

Many power generation processes feature some type of working fluid that plays a critical role in the transfer of heat throughout the system. To optimize thermal efficiencies, an accurate characterization of the temperature-dependent thermal conductivity of the fluid is needed. Herein, this study develops a time-domain Modified Transient Hot-wire Needle Probe to overcome phenomena that have impaired traditional measurement techniques when the fluid is both corrosive and at an elevated temperature. First, the physical design of the instrument is presented to demonstrate features that limit interference from corrosion, electrical conduction, and convective and radiative heat transfer. Next, a governing equation for 1D (radial) heat conduction is fully developed using the thermal quadrupoles technique. A finite-element study is performed for validation. A sensitivity analysis is done to assess the time-dependent influence of critical parameters in the governing equation for several samples. Finally, thermal conductivity measurements are presented for seven different liquid substances by fitting the thermal model to experimental data across a range of temperatures. Reference correlations are included for comparison. The sample thermal conductivity and ambient temperature of the experimental conditions range from 0.125–16.5$\frac{W}{m·K}$ and 10–400°C, respectively. The total uncertainty, comprised of both the experimental design and fitting process, of all measurements is quantified.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

The 2025 Evaluation of Experimental Thermonuclear Reaction Rates (ETR25)

This work describes the formalism for estimating thermonuclear reaction rates for astrophysical applications, emphasizing modern statistical approaches such as Monte Carlo sampling and Bayesian models. We discuss related topics including the calculation of resonance energies from nuclear Q values, indirect estimates of particle partial widths, and matching of reaction rates at elevated temperatures to statistical model results. We have evaluated available experimental data on cross sections, resonance energies and strengths, partial widths, lifetimes, spin-parities, and spectroscopic factors. Based on these results, we have estimated numerical values of 78 experimental charged-particle thermonuclear reaction rates for target nuclei in the A = 2–40 mass region, for temperatures ranging from 1 MK to 10 GK. For each reaction, three rate values are provided: low, median, and high, corresponding to the 16th, 50th, and 84th percentiles, respectively, of the cumulative reaction rate probability density distribution. Additionally, we present the factor uncertainty of each rate at each temperature grid point. These results enable users to sample the reaction rate probability density in nucleosynthesis calculations, facilitating uncertainty estimates of nuclidic abundances. The rates presented here refer to their laboratory values. For use in stellar model simulations, these values need to be corrected for the effects of thermal excitations of the interacting nuclei. For each reaction, we include graphs that illustrate the fractional contributions to the overall reaction rate along with the associated uncertainty. These visuals are designed to assist both stellar modelers and nuclear experimentalists by identifying the primary sources of rate uncertain=^texttx);ty at specific stellar temperatures. A graphical comparison with earlier Monte Carlo rates is also provided.

Nuclear astrophysics↗

Wind Energy Modeling and Simulation, Volume 2: Turbine and System

In order to optimise the yield of wind power from existing and future wind plants, the entire breadth of the system of a plant, from the wind field to the turbine components, needs to be modelled in the design process. The modelling and simulation approaches used in each subsystem as well as the system-wide solution methods to optimize across subsystem boundaries are described in this reference. Chapters are written by technical experts in each field, describing the current state of the art in modelling and simulation for wind plant design. This comprehensive, two-volume research reference will provide long-lasting insight into the methods that will need to be developed for the technology to advance into its next generation. Volume 2 covers turbine level aerodynamics, aeroelasticity, rotors drivetrains and electrical systems, wind turbine control, offshore foundations, system optimization, and grid modelling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

SU-F-T-31: Shape and Isodose Distributions in Co60 HDR Brachytherapy for Different Utero-Vaginal Time Ratios

Purpose: To optimize the dose in bladder and rectum and show the different shapes of the isodose volumes in Co60-HDR brachytherapy, considering different utero and vaginal sources dwell ratio times (TU:TV). Methods: Besides Ir192-HDR, new Co60-HDR sources are being incorporated. We considered different TU:TV times and computed the dosis in bladder, rectum and at the reference points of the Manchester system. Also, we calculated the isodose volume and shape in each case. We used a EZAG-BEBIG Co0.A86 model with TPS HDRplus3.0.4. and LCT42-7, LCT42-2(R,L) applicators. A reference dose RA= 1.00 Gy was given to the A-right point. We considered the TU:TV dwell time ratios 1:0.25, 1:0.33, 1:0.5, 1:1, 1:2, 1:3, and 1:4. Given TU:TV, the stop time at each dwell position is fixed for each applicator. Results: Increasing TU:TV systematically results in a decreasing of the dose in bladder and rectum, e.g. 9% and 27% reduction were found in 1:0.25 with respect to 1:1, while 12% and 34% increase were found in 1:4 with respect to 1:1. Also, the isodose volume parameters height (h), width (w), thickness (t) and volume (hwt) increased from the 1:0.25 case to the 1:4 value: hwt is 25% lower and 31% higher than the 1:1 reference volume in these cases. Also w decreased for higher TU:TV and may compromise the tumoral volume coverage, decreasing 17% in the 1:0.25 case compared to the 1:1 case. The shape of the isodose volume was obtained for the different TU:TV considered. Conclusion: We obtained the shape of isodose volumes for different TU:TV values in gynecological Co60-HDR. We studied the dose reduction in bladder and rectum for different TU:TV ratios. The volume parameters and hwt are strongly dependent on this ratio. This information is useful for a quantitative check of the TPS and as a starting point towards optimization.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

WE-G-BRF-04: Robust Real-Time Volumetric Imaging Based On One Single Projection

Purpose: Real-time volumetric imaging is highly desirable to provide instantaneous image guidance for lung radiation therapy. This study proposes a scheme to achieve this goal using one single projection by utilizing sparse learning and a principal component analysis (PCA) based lung motion model. Methods: A patient-specific PCA-based lung motion model is first constructed by analyzing deformable vector fields (DVFs) between a reference image and 4DCT images at each phase. At the training stage, we “learn” the relationship between the DVFs and the projection using sparse learning. Specifically, we first partition the projections into patches, and then apply sparse learning to automatically identify patches that best correlate with the principal components of the DVFs. Once the relationship is established, at the application stage, we first employ a patchbased intensity correction method to overcome the problem of different intensity scale between the calculated projection in the training stage and the measured projection in the application stage. The corrected projection image is then fed to the trained model to derive a DVF, which is applied to the reference image, yielding a volumetric image corresponding to the projection. We have validated our method through a NCAT phantom simulation case and one experiment case. Results: Sparse learning can automatically select those patches containing motion information, such as those around diaphragm. For the simulation case, over 98% of the lung region pass the generalized gamma test (10HU/1mm), indicating combined accuracy in both intensity and spatial domain. For the experimental case, the average tumor localization errors projected to the imager are 0.68 mm and 0.4 mm on the axial and tangential direction, respectively. Conclusion: The proposed method is capable of accurately generating a volumetric image using one single projection. It will potentially offer real-time volumetric image guidance to facilitate lung radiotherapy. This study is supported in part by NIH (1R01CA154747-01), The Core Technology Research in Strategic Emerging Industry, Guangdong, China(2011A081402003)

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Benchmarking carbon fluxes of the ISIMIP2a biome models

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the eight ISIMIP2a biome models against independent estimates of long-term net carbon fluxes (i.e. Net Biome Productivity, NBP) over terrestrial ecosystems for the recent four decades (1971–2010). Here, we evaluate modeled global NBP against 1) the updated global residual land sink (RLS) plus land use emissions (E LUC ) from the Global Carbon Project (GCP), presented as R + L in this study by Le Quéré et al (2015), and 2) the land CO 2 fluxes from two atmospheric inversion systems: Jena CarboScope s81_v3.8 and CAMS v15r2, referred to as F Jena and F CAMS respectively. The model ensemble-mean NBP (that includes seven models with land-use change) is higher than but within the uncertainty of R + L, while the simulated positive NBP trend over the last 30 yr is lower than that from R + L and from the two inversion systems. ISIMIP2a biome models well capture the interannual variation of global net terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes. Tropical NBP represents 31 ± 17% of global total NBP during the past decades, and the year-to-year variation of tropical NBP contributes most of the interannual variation of global NBP. According to the models, increasing Net Primary Productivity (NPP) was the main cause for the generally increasing NBP. Significant global NBP anomalies from the long-term mean between the two phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are simulated by all models (p < 0.05), which is consistent with the R + L estimate (p = 0.06), also mainly attributed to NPP anomalies, rather than to changes in heterotrophic respiration (Rh). The global NPP and NBP anomalies during ENSO events are dominated by their anomalies in tropical regions impacted by tropical climate variability. Multiple regressions between R + L, F Jena and F CAMS interannual variations and tropical climate variations reveal a significant negative response of global net terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes to tropical mean annual temperature variation, and a non-significant response to tropical annual precipitation variation. According to the models, tropical precipitation is a more important driver, suggesting that some models do not capture the roles of precipitation and temperature changes adequately.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Selection of glasses in support of the Sludge Batch 9 variability study for coupled operation with the Salt Waste Processing Facility

Prior to the processing of Sludge Batch 9 (SB9) with Frit 803 at the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF), assessments and experimental glass work were completed to support the qualification of SB9 coupled processing with streams from the Actinide Removal Process (ARP) and Modular Caustic Side Solvent Extraction Unit (MCU). This previous work did not address coupled processing with streams from the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) because the Product Composition Control System (PCCS) models limited the TiO 2 concentration in glass to 2 weight percent (wt.%). These high activity streams from SWPF include monosodium titanate (MST) and sludge solids from the Sludge Solids Receipt Tank as well as Cs-containing strip effluent. The incorporation of these SWPF streams is expected to reach TiO2 concentrations in glass greater than 2 wt.% based on an MST addition of 0.4 g MST/L of salt solution. If double strike operation is required, then the MST addition is increased to 0.8 g MST/L of salt solution. Therefore, revisions to the models contained in PCCS were completed to allow the evaluation of glasses containing greater than 2 wt.% TiO 2 , but less than 6 wt.%. To support the implementation of the revised PCCS for SB9 – Frit 803 processing at DWPF prior to SWPF startup, the applicability of the new durability models for the SB9 variability study glasses was verified. Since the initial SB9 qualification for ARP-MCU coupled operation, additional Tank 40 analyses have been completed, which served as the basis for an updated projection of the SB9 blend composition in Tank 40. To identify a frit optimized for SB9 coupled operation with SWPF, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) performed a paper-study by utilizing Measurement Acceptance Region (MAR) assessments with DWPF PCCS. Based on these MAR assessment results, Frit 625 was recommended for processing both single and double MST strike scenarios. Savannah River Remediation (SRR) requested that SRNL perform a variability study with both Frit 803 and Frit 625 for SB9 coupled operation with SWPF. The objective of the variability study is to demonstrate that the Product Consistency Test (PCT) responses of the glasses are acceptable relative to the chemical durability of the Environmental Assessment (EA) reference glass and predictable by the current DWPF PCCS models for durability. This report documents the development of a test matrix that will support the variability study. To provide operational flexibility prior to SWPF startup, the predictability of glasses within the glass region for Frit 625-SB9 coupled operation with ARP-MCU was also confirmed.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Updating and Evaluating Anthropogenic Emissions for NOAA’s Global Ensemble Forecast Systems for Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols): Application of an SO 2 Bias-Scaling Method

We updated the anthropogenic emissions inventory in NOAA’s operational Global Ensemble Forecast for Aerosols (GEFS-Aerosols) to improve the model’s prediction of aerosol optical depth (AOD). We used a methodology to quickly update the pivotal global anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions using a speciated AOD bias-scaling method. The AOD bias-scaling method is based on the latest model predictions compared to NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA2). The model bias was subsequently applied to the CEDS 2019 SO 2 emissions for adjustment. The monthly mean GEFS-Aerosols AOD predictions were evaluated against a suite of satellite observations (e.g., MISR, VIIRS, and MODIS), ground-based AERONET observations, and the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP) ensemble results. The results show that transitioning from CEDS 2014 to CEDS 2019 emissions data led to a significant improvement in the operational GEFS-Aerosols model performance, and applying the bias-scaled SO 2 emissions could further improve global AOD distributions. The biases of the simulated AODs against the observed AODs varied with observation type and seasons by a factor of 3~13 and 2~10, respectively. The global AOD distributions showed that the differences in the simulations against ICAP, MISR, VIIRS, and MODIS were the largest in March–May (MAM) and the smallest in December–February (DJF). When evaluating against the ground-truth AERONET data, the bias-scaling methods improved the global seasonal correlation (r), Index of Agreement (IOA), and mean biases, except for the MAM season, when the negative regional biases were exacerbated compared to the positive regional biases. The effect of bias-scaling had the most beneficial impact on model performance in the regions dominated by anthropogenic emissions, such as East Asia. However, it showed less improvement in other areas impacted by the greater relative transport of natural emissions sources, such as India. The accuracies of the reference observation or assimilation data for the adjusted inputs and the model physics for outputs, and the selection of regions with less seasonal emissions of natural aerosols determine the success of the bias-scaling methods. A companion study on emission scaling of anthropogenic absorbing aerosols needs further improved aerosol prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗