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At least 1,369 records · Page 76

Geosat altimeter observations of the surface circulation of the Southern Ocean

Using Geosat altimeter data for 26 months from November 1986 to December 1988 and a newly developed technique for the analysis of height data, the variability of the sea level and the surface geostrophic currents in the Southern Ocean is investigated. The processed Geosat data are used to examine the relationship between the mesoscale variability and the values of mean circulation, determined from historical hydrographic data. It is shown that the geographical patterns of both the mean flow and the mesoscale variability are correlated. An efficient objective-analysis algorithm for generating smoothed fields from observations randomly distributed in time and two space dimensions is developed and applied to 26 months of Geosat data. The smoothed fields are then used to investigate the large-scale low-frequency variability of the sea level and the surface geostrophic velocity in the Southern Ocean, in order to identify the mode of the observed variations.

Chelton, Dudley B.↗

Horizontal tail loads in maneuvering flight

A method is given for determining the horizontal tail loads in maneuvering flight. The method is based upon the assignment of a load-factor variation with time and the determination of a minimum time to reach peak load factor. The tail load is separated into various components. Examination of these components indicated that one of the components was so small that it could be neglected for most conventional airplanes; therefore, the number of aerodynamic parameters needed in this computation of tail loads was reduced to a minimum. In order to illustrate the method, as well as to show the effect of the main variables, a number of examples are given. Some discussion is given regarding the determination of maximum tail loads, maximum pitching accelerations, and maximum pitching velocities obtainable.

Pearson, Henry A↗

Linking GAIA proper motions to the extragalactic reference system by QSO observations

A direct link to an extragalactic reference system is considered as being a principle aim of the global astrometric interferometer for astrophysics (GAIA) mission. The data available from an extragalactic data base and a quasi stellar object (QSO) catalog were used to obtain an estimation of the number of QSO link candidates. The quality of presently available data and the expected accuracy of the extragalactic link are discussed. It is concluded that at least 150 QSO's must be observed by GAIA in order to guarantee an accuracy of better than 1 microarcsec/year for the link. New observations will be needed before the GAIA launch in order to reduce uncertainties in the positions, magnitudes and redshifts for some known quasars. The variability of QSO's with magnitudes near the GAIA observation limit can raise a potential problem. The motions of nearby QSO's are expected to be much smaller than 2 microarcsec/year, and therefore, will not affect the accuracy of the link in the proposed GAIA mission.

Schilbach, Elena↗

The Corona of the Young Solar Analog EK Draconis

First coronal microwave and new soft X-ray observations of the very active, near-Zero-Age Main-Sequence (ZAMS) dGOe star EK Dra = HD 129333 show that this analog of the young Sun is more luminous in both emissions than most single M-dwarf flare stars. Variations in the 8.4 GHz flux include modulation with the optically determined rotation period of 2.7 days. This result points to a non-uniform filling of the corona with energetic electrons due to an incomplete coverage of the surface with active regions and a source volume that is not concentric with the star. The radio luminosity varying between log L(sub R) = 13.6 and 14.6 (L(sub R) in erg/s/Hz) shows evidence for unpolarized gyrosynchrotron flares, while strongly polarized flares were absent during the observations. This star is the first young, truly solar-like main sequence G star discovered in microwaves. Having just arrived on the main sequence, it conclusively proves that young, solar-like G stars can maintain very high levels of radio emission after their T Tau phase. The X-ray observations were obtained from the ROSAT All-Sky Survey (RASS). The average X-ray luminosity amounts to log L(sub x) = 29.9 (L(sub x) in erg/s). A Raymond-Smith type plasma model fit yields two plasma components at temperatures of 1.9 and 10 MK, with volume emission measures of 1.2 and 2.5 x 10 (exp 52)/cu cm, respectively. The X-ray light curve is significantly variable, with the photon count rate from the cooler plasma being strongly modulated by the rotation period; the emission from the hotter plasma is only weakly variable. Modeling of the source distribution in the stellar corona yields electron densities of the order of 4 x 10(exp 10)/cu cm or higher for the cool plasma component. It indicates that a considerable portion of EK Dra's high X-ray luminosity is due to high-density plasma rather than large emission volume. Parameters for an X-ray flare indicate an electron density of 1.75 x 10(exp 11)/cu cm and a source height of (1-2) x 10(exp 10) cm, compatible with a few times the scale height of the cooler plasma component.

Gudel, M.↗

The Crystal and Molecular Structure of an Asymmetric Diacetylene Monomer, 6-(2-methyl-4-nitroanilino)-2,4-hexadiyne-1-ol

The crystal and molecular structure of an asymmetric diacetylene monomer has been determined from x-ray diffraction data. The crystals, obtained from an acetone/pentane solution, are orthorhombic, Fdd2 with Z = 16 in a unit cell having dimensions of a = 42.815(6) A, b = 22.224(5) A, c = 4.996(l) A. The structure was solved by direct methods and refined by least- squares techniques to an R(sub F) of 6.4% for 988 reflections and 171 variables. The diacetylene chains are disposed in the unit cell in a complex manner in order to satisfy the hydrogen- bonding, crystal packing, and symmetry requirements of the system. The solid state polymerization mechanism is discussed with respect to the geometric disposition of the diacetylene chains. These chains are far apart and incorrectly oriented with respect to each other to permit polymerization in the crystal by means of 1,4-addition, consistent with the Baughman mechanistic model.

Vlasse, Marcus↗

Variability of Clouds Over a Solar Cycle

One of the most controversial aspects of climate studies is the debate over the natural and anthropogenic causes of climate change. Historical data strongly suggest that the Little Ice Age (from 1550 to 1850 AD when the mean temperature was colder by about 1 C) was most likely caused by variability of the sun and not greenhouse molecules (e.g., CO2). However, the known variability in solar irradiance and modulation of cosmic rays provides too little energy, by many orders of magnitude, to lead to climate changes in the troposphere. The conjecture is that there is a 'trigger mechanism'. This idea may now be subjected to a quantitative test using recent global datasets. Using the best available modern cloud data from International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), Svensmark and Friis-Christensen found a correlation of a large variation (3-4%) in global cloud cover with the solar cycle. The work has been extended by Svensmark and Marsh and Svensmark. The implied forcing on climate is an order of magnitude greater than any previous claims. Are clouds the long sought trigger mechanism? This discovery is potentially so important that it should be corroborated by an independent database, and, furthermore, it must be shown that alternative explanations (i.e., El Nino) can be ruled out. We used the ISCCP data in conjunction with the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data to carry out in in depth study of the cloud trigger mechanism.

Yung, Yuk L.↗

Analysis Method for Inelastic, Adhesively Bonded Joints with Anisotropic Adherends

A one-dimensional analysis method for evaluating adhesively bonded joints composed of anisotropic adherends and adhesives with nonlinear material behavior is presented in the proposed paper. The strain and resulting stress field in a general, bonded joint overlap are determined by using a variable-step, finite-difference solution algorithm to iteratively solve a system of first-order differential equations. Applied loading is given by a system of combined extensional, bending, and shear forces that are applied to the edge of the joint overlap. Adherends are assumed to behave as linear, cylindrically bent plates using classical laminated plate theory that includes the effects of first-order transverse shear deformation. Using the deformation theory of plasticity and a modified von-Mises yield criterion, inelastic material behavior is modeled in the adhesive layer. Results for the proposed method are verified against previous results from the literature and shown to be in excellent agreement. An additional case that highlights the effects of transverse shear deformation between similar adherends is also presented.

Smeltzer, Stanley S., III↗

Heliophysics: The New Science of the Sun-Solar System Connection. Recommended Roadmap for Science and Technology 2005-2035

This is a Roadmap to understanding the environment of our Earth, from its life-sustaining Sun out past the frontiers of the solar system. A collection of spacecraft now patrols this space, revealing not a placid star and isolated planets, but an immense, dynamic, interconnected system within which our home planet is embedded and through which space explorers must journey. These spacecraft already form a great observatory with which the Heliophysics program can study the Sun, the heliosphere, the Earth, and other planetary environments as elements of a system--one that contains dynamic space weather and evolves in response to solar, planetary, and interstellar variability. NASA continually evolves the Heliophysics Great Observatory by adding new missions and instruments in order to answer the challenging questions confronting us now and in the future as humans explore the solar system. The three heliophysics science objectives: opening the frontier to space environment prediction; understanding the nature of our home in space, and safeguarding the journey of exploration, require sustained research programs that depend on combining new data, theory, analysis, simulation, and modeling. Our program pursues a deeper understanding of the fundamental physical processes that underlie the exotic phenomena of space.

Heliophysics↗

NASA's Advancements in Space-Based Spectrometry Lead to Improvements in Weather Prediction and Understanding of Climate Processes

AIRS (Atmospheric Infra-Red Sounder), was launched, in conjunction with AMSU-A (Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A) on the NASA polar orbiting research satellite EOS (Earth Observing System) Aqua satellite in May 2002 as a next generation atmospheric sounding system. Atmospheric sounders provide information primarily about the vertical distribution of atmospheric temperature and water vapor distribution. This is achieved by measuring outgoing radiation in discrete channels (spectral intervals) which are sensitive primarily to variations of these geophysical parameters. The primary objectives of AIRS/AMSU were to utilize such information in order to improve the skill of numerical weather prediction as well as to measure climate variability and trends. AIRS is a multi-detector array grating spectrometer with 2378 channels covering the spectral range 650/cm (15 microns) to 2660/cm (3.6 microns) with a resolving power (i/a i) of roughly 1200 where a i is the spectral channel bandpass. Atmospheric temperature profile can be determined from channel observations taken within the 15 micron (the long-wave CO2 absorption band) and within the 4.2 micron (the short-wave CO2 absorption band). Radiances in these (and all other) spectral intervals in the infrared are also sensitive to the presence of clouds in the instrument?s field of view (FOV), which are present about 95% of the time. AIRS was designed so as to allow for the ability to produce accurate Quality Controlled atmospheric soundings under most cloud conditions. This was achieved by having 1) extremely low channel noise values in the shortwave portion of the spectrum and 2) a very flat spatial response function within a channel?s FOV. IASI, the high spectral resolution IR interferometer flying on the European METOP satellite, does not contain either of these important characteristics. The AIRS instrument was also designed to be extremely stabile with regard to its spectral radiometric characteristics, which is critical with regard to the ability to measure accurate long term trends.

Susskind, Joel↗

A Landslide Climate Indicator from Machine Learning

In order to create a Landslide Hazard Index, we accessed rain, snow, and a dozen other variables from the National Climate Assessment Land Data Assimilation System. These predictors were converted to probabilities of landslide occurrence with XGBoost, a major machine-learning tool. The model was fitted with thousands of historical landslides from the Pacific Northwest Landslide Inventory (PNLI).

Stanley, T. A.↗

The broad-band spectra and variability of compact nonthermal sources

It is noted that in approximately a dozen sources, nearly simultaneous infrared and/or visual spectra are available, making it possible to examine the relationship between the infrared-visual and radio regimes. A simple transition to the steeper infrared spectra is seen as likely with a mean break wavelength of approximately 300 microns in the rest frame. These observations indicate a tapered source geometry, with the smallest structures roughly on the order of 10 to the 16th cm as estimated from the spectral break; this is consistent with scales estimated from optical variability time scales. Large amplitude variations on a six-month time interval are found to be fairly infrequent in most of the sources. A relatively model-independent way of categorizing flux variations as due to changes in source scale, or structure or the slope of the electron energy spectrum is suggested.

Jones, T. W.↗

Stochastic Dynamic Analysis for Power Systems Under Uncertain Variability

This paper proposes a novel method to analyze impacts of uncertain variability on power system dynamics. There is considerable interest in integrating intermittent renewable energy and plug-in electric vehicles into power systems. Therefore, power systems are in an environment with increasing uncertain variability. In this paper, the uncertain variability is described as a continuous-time stochastic process, and thus, the power system under uncertain variability is modeled by stochastic differential equations. To quantify impacts of uncertain variability on power system dynamics, an intra-region probability index is presented. Based on the stochastic averaging method, an analytical method is proposed to calculate the intra-region probability. Compared to Monte Carlo simulation, the proposed method is many orders of magnitude faster without sacrificing the result accuracy. As a result, several insights are given to improve the power system dynamics under uncertain variability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Regression Analysis of Top of Descent Location for Idle-thrust Descents

In this paper, multiple regression analysis is used to model the top of descent (TOD) location of user-preferred descent trajectories computed by the flight management system (FMS) on over 1000 commercial flights into Melbourne, Australia. The independent variables cruise altitude, final altitude, cruise Mach, descent speed, wind, and engine type were also recorded or computed post-operations. Both first-order and second-order models are considered, where cross-validation, hypothesis testing, and additional analysis are used to compare models. This identifies the models that should give the smallest errors if used to predict TOD location for new data in the future. A model that is linear in TOD altitude, final altitude, descent speed, and wind gives an estimated standard deviation of 3.9 nmi for TOD location given the trajec- tory parameters, which means about 80% of predictions would have error less than 5 nmi in absolute value. This accuracy is better than demonstrated by other ground automation predictions using kinetic models. Furthermore, this approach would enable online learning of the model. Additional data or further knowl- edge of algorithms is necessary to conclude definitively that no second-order terms are appropriate. Possible applications of the linear model are described, including enabling arriving aircraft to fly optimized descents computed by the FMS even in congested airspace. In particular, a model for TOD location that is linear in the independent variables would enable decision support tool human-machine interfaces for which a kinetic approach would be computationally too slow.

trajectory prediction↗

Measurement Variability of Vertical Scanning Interferometry Tool Used for Orbiter Window Defect Assessment

The ability to sufficiently measure orbiter window defects to allow for window recertification has been an ongoing challenge for the orbiter vehicle program. The recent Columbia accident has forced even tighter constraints on the criteria that must be met in order to recertify windows for flight. As a result, new techniques are being investigated to improve the reliability, accuracy and resolution of the defect detection process. The methodology devised in this work, which is based on the utilization of a vertical scanning interferometric (VSI) tool, shows great promise for meeting the ever increasing requirements for defect detection. This methodology has the potential of a 10-100 fold greater resolution of the true defect depth than can be obtained from the currently employed micrometer based methodology. An added benefit is that it also produces a digital elevation map of the defect, thereby providing information about the defect morphology which can be utilized to ascertain the type of debris that induced the damage. However, in order to successfully implement such a tool, a greater understanding of the resolution capability and measurement repeatability must be obtained. This work focused on assessing the variability of the VSI-based measurement methodology and revealed that the VSI measurement tool was more repeatable and more precise than the current micrometer based approach, even in situations where operator variation could affect the measurement. The analysis also showed that the VSI technique was relatively insensitive to the hardware and software settings employed, making the technique extremely robust and desirable

Padula, Santo, II↗

Optical variability of extragalactic objects used to tie the HIPPARCOS reference frame to an extragalactic system using Hubble space telescope observations

Observations of a set of 89 extragalactic objects (EGOs) will be made with the Hubble Space Telescope Fine Guidance Sensors and Planetary Camera in order to link the HIPPARCOS Instrumental System to an extragalactic coordinate system. Most of the sources chosen for observation contain compact radio sources and stellarlike nuclei; 65 percent are optical variables beyond a 0.2 mag limit. To ensure proper exposure times, accurate mean magnitudes are necessary. In many cases, the average magnitudes listed in the literature were not adequate. The literature was searched for all relevant photometric information for the EGOs, and photometric parameters were derived, including mean magnitude, maximum range, and timescale of variability. This paper presents the results of that search and the parameters derived. The results will allow exposure times to be estimated such that an observed magnitude different from the tabular magnitude by 0.5 mag in either direction will not degrade the astrometric centering ability on a Planetary Camera CCD frame.

Bozyan, Elizabeth P.↗

Further studies of the pulsation period and orbital elements of Centaurus X-3

The long- and short-term variability of the 4.8-s pulsation and the 2.1-day orbital periods of Centaurus X-3 are studied. The pulsation period decreases over 4 yr with a fractional change of -0.00028 per yr, but with rms fluctuations of 0.0002 s. In August-September 1972, a continuous transition from speedup to slowdown was observed. The orbital period also decreases over 4 yr with decrease of approximately 8 millionths per yr, and with significant fluctuations of the order of 0.00001 day over months. The orbital eccentricity is found to be about 0.0008. The pulsation-period variability is found to be consistent with a near balance between the Alfven and corotation radii in an accretion-disk model. The orbital-period variability is interpreted in terms of tidal circularization and possible mass transfer and loss.

Fabbiano, G.↗

First-Order System Least-Squares for Second-Order Elliptic Problems with Discontinuous Coefficients

The first-order system least-squares methodology represents an alternative to standard mixed finite element methods. Among its advantages is the fact that the finite element spaces approximating the pressure and flux variables are not restricted by the inf-sup condition and that the least-squares functional itself serves as an appropriate error measure. This paper studies the first-order system least-squares approach for scalar second-order elliptic boundary value problems with discontinuous coefficients. Ellipticity of an appropriately scaled least-squares bilinear form of the size of the jumps in the coefficients leading to adequate finite element approximation results. The occurrence of singularities at interface corners and cross-points is discussed. and a weighted least-squares functional is introduced to handle such cases. Numerical experiments are presented for two test problems to illustrate the performance of this approach.

Manteuffel, Thomas A.↗

Steps toward determination of the size and structure of the broad-line region in active galactic nuclei. 6: Variability of NGC 3783 from ground-based data

The Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 3783 was intensely monitored in several bands between 1991 December and 1992 August. This paper presents the results from the ground-based observations in the optical and near-IR bands, which complement the data set formed by the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) spectra, discussed elsewhere. Spectroscopic and photometric data from several observatories were combined in order to obtain well-sampled light curves of the continuum and of H(beta). During the campaign the source underwent significant variability. The light curves of the optical continuum and of H(beta) display strong similarities to those obtained with the IUE. The near-IR flux did not vary significantly except for a slight increase at the end of the campaign. The cross-correlation analysis shows that the variations of the optical continuum have a lag of 1 day or less with respect to those of the UV continuum, with an uncertainty of is less than or equal to 4 days. The integrated flux of H(beta) varies with a delay of about 8 days. These results confirm that (1) the continuum variations occur simultaneously or with a very small lag across the entire UV-optical range, as in the Seyfert galaxy NGC 5548; and (2) the emission lines of NGC 3783 respond to ionizing continuum variations with less delay than those of NGC 5548. As observed in NGC 5548, the lag of H(beta) with respect to the continuum is greater than those of the high-ionization lines.

Stirpe, G. M.↗