Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Contingency”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,387 records · Page 77
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2014

Human Reliability and the Cost of Doing Business

Most businesses recognize that people will make mistakes and assume errors are just part of the cost of doing business, but does it need to be? Companies with high risk, or major consequences, should consider the effect of human error. In a variety of industries, Human Errors have caused costly failures and workplace injuries. These have included: airline mishaps, medical malpractice, administration of medication and major oil spills have all been blamed on human error. A technique to mitigate or even eliminate some of these costly human errors is the use of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA). Various methodologies are available to perform Human Reliability Assessments that range from identifying the most likely areas for concern to detailed assessments with human error failure probabilities calculated. Which methodology to use would be based on a variety of factors that would include: 1) how people react and act in different industries, and differing expectations based on industries standards, 2) factors that influence how the human errors could occur such as tasks, tools, environment, workplace, support, training and procedure, 3) type and availability of data and 4) how the industry views risk & reliability influences ( types of emergencies, contingencies and routine tasks versus cost based concerns). The Human Reliability Assessments should be the first step to reduce, mitigate or eliminate the costly mistakes or catastrophic failures. Using Human Reliability techniques to identify and classify human error risks allows a company more opportunities to mitigate or eliminate these risks and prevent costly failures.

DeMott, Diana↗
NASA NTRS2014

Asteroid Crewed Segment Mission Lean Development

The next generation of human spaceflight missions presents numerous challenges to designers that must be addressed to produce a feasible concept. The specific challenges of designing an exploration mission utilizing the Space Launch System and the Orion spacecraft to carry astronauts beyond earth orbit to explore an asteroid stored in a distant retrograde orbit around the moon will be addressed. Mission designers must carefully balance competing constraints including cost, schedule, risk, and numerous spacecraft performance metrics including launch mass, nominal landed mass, abort landed mass, mission duration, consumable limits and many others. The Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission will be described along with results from the concurrent mission design trades that led to its formulation. While the trades presented are specific to this mission, the integrated process is applicable to any potential future mission. The following trades were critical in the mission formulation and will be described in detail: 1) crew size, 2) mission duration, 3) trajectory design, 4) docking vs grapple, 5) extravehicular activity tasks, 6) launch mass and integrated vehicle performance, 7) contingency performance, 8) crew consumables including food, clothing, oxygen, nitrogen and water, and 9) mission risk. The additional Orion functionality required to perform the Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission and how it is incorporated while minimizing cost, schedule and mass impacts will be identified. Existing investments in the NASA technology portfolio were leveraged to provide the added functionality that will be beneficial to future exploration missions. Mission kits are utilized to augment Orion with the necessary functionality without introducing costly new requirements to the mature Orion spacecraft design effort. The Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission provides an exciting early mission for the Orion and SLS while providing a stepping stone to even more ambitious missions in the future.

Gard, Joe↗
NASA NTRS2014

Morpheus Vertical Test Bed Flight Testing

NASA's Morpheus Project has developed and tested a prototype planetary lander capable of vertical takeoff and landing, that is designed to serve as a testbed for advanced spacecraft technologies. The lander vehicle, propelled by a LOX/Methane engine and sized to carry a 500kg payload to the lunar surface, provides a platform for bringing technologies from the laboratory into an integrated flight system at relatively low cost. Morpheus onboard software is autonomous from ignition all the way through landing, and is designed to be capable of executing a variety of flight trajectories, with onboard fault checks and automatic contingency responses. The Morpheus 1.5A vehicle performed 26 integrated vehicle test flights including hot-fire tests, tethered tests, and two attempted freeflights between April 2011 and August 2012. The final flight of Morpheus 1.5A resulted in a loss of the vehicle. In September 2012, development began on the Morpheus 1.5B vehicle, which subsequently followed a similar test campaign culminating in free-flights at a simulated planetary landscape built at Kennedy Space Center's Shuttle Landing Facility. This paper describes the integrated test campaign, including successes and setbacks, and how the system design for handling faults and failures evolved over the course of the project.

Hart, Jeremy↗
NASA NTRS2011

Structural Load Alleviation Applied to Next Generation Aircraft and Wind Turbines

Reducing the environmental impact of aviation is a goal of the Subsonic Fixed Wing Project under the Fundamental Aeronautics Program of NASAs Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate. Environmental impact of aviation is being addressed by novel aircraft configurations and materials that reduce aircraft weight and increase aerodynamic efficiency. NASA is developing tools to address the challenges of increased airframe flexibility created by wings constructed with reduced structural material and novel light-weight materials. This talk will present a framework and demonstration of a flight control system using optimal control allocation with structural load feedback and constraints to achieve safe aircraft operation. As wind turbines age, they become susceptible to many forms of blade degradation. Results will be presented on work in progress that uses adaptive contingency control for load mitigation in a wind turbine simulation with blade damage progression modeled.

adaptive control↗
NASA NTRS2012

Tropospheric Bromine Chemistry: Implications for Present and Pre-industrial Ozone and Mercury

We present a new model for the global tropospheric chemistry of inorganic bromine (Bry) coupled to oxidant-aerosol chemistry in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model (CTM). Sources of tropospheric Bry include debromination of sea-salt aerosol, photolysis and oxidation of short-lived bromocarbons, and transport from the stratosphere. Comparison to a GOME-2 satellite climatology of tropospheric BrO columns shows that the model can reproduce the observed increase of BrO with latitude, the northern mid-latitudes maximum in winter, and the Arctic maximum in spring. This successful simulation is contingent on the HOBr + HBr reaction taking place in aqueous aerosols and ice clouds. Bromine chemistry in the model decreases tropospheric ozone mixing ratios by <1-8 nmol/mol (6.5% globally), with the largest effects in the northern extratropics in spring. The global mean tropospheric OH concentration decreases by 4 %. Inclusion of bromine chemistry improves the ability of global models (GEOS-Chem and p-TOMCAT) to simulate observed 19th-century ozone and its seasonality. Bromine effects on tropospheric ozone are comparable in the present-day and pre-industrial atmospheres so that estimates of anthropogenic radiative forcing are minimally affected. Br atom concentrations are 40% higher in the pre-industrial atmosphere due to lower ozone, which would decrease by a factor of 2 the atmospheric lifetime of elemental mercury against oxidation by Br. This suggests that historical anthropogenic mercury emissions may have mostly deposited to northern mid-latitudes, enriching the corresponding surface reservoirs. The persistent rise in background surface ozone at northern mid-latitudes during the past decades could possibly contribute to the observations of elevated mercury in subsurface waters of the North Atlantic.

bromine↗
NASA NTRS2013

Development of the Orion Crew-Service Module Umbilical Retention and Release Mechanism

The Orion CSM umbilical retention and release mechanism supports and protects all of the cross-module commodities between the spacecrafts crew and service modules. These commodities include explosive transfer lines, wiring for power and data, and flexible hoses for ground purge and life support systems. The mechanism employs a single separation interface which is retained with pyrotechnically actuated separation bolts and supports roughly two dozen electrical and fluid connectors. When module separation is commanded, either for nominal on-orbit CONOPS or in the event of an abort, the mechanism must release the separation interface and sever all commodity connections within milliseconds of command receipt. There are a number of unique and novel aspects of the design solution developed by the Orion mechanisms team. The design is highly modular and can easily be adapted to other vehiclesmodules and alternate commodity sets. It will be flight tested during Orions Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) in 2014, and the Orion team anticipates reuse of the design for all future missions. The design packages fluid, electrical, and ordnance disconnects in a single separation interface. It supports abort separations even in cases where aerodynamic loading prevents the deployment of the umbilical arm. Unlike the Apollo CSM umbilical which was a destructive separation device, the Orion design is resettable and flight units can be tested for separation performance prior to flight.Initial development testing of the mechanisms separation interface resulted in binding failures due to connector misalignments. The separation interface was redesigned with a robust linear guide system, and the connector separation and boom deployment were separated into two discretely sequenced events. These changes addressed the root cause of the binding failure by providing better control of connector alignment. The new design was tuned and validated analytically via Monte Carlo simulation. The analytical validation was followed by a repeat of the initial test suite plus test cases at thermal extremes and test cases with imposed mechanical failures demonstrating fault tolerance. The mechanism was then exposed to the qualification vibration environment. Finally, separation testing was performed at full speed with live ordnance.All tests of the redesigned mechanism resulted in successful separation of the umbilical interface with adequate force margins and timing. The test data showed good agreement with the predictions of the Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation proved invaluable due to the number of variables affecting the separation and the uncertainty associated with each. The simulation allowed for rapid assessment of numerous trades and contingency scenarios, and can be easily reconfigured for varying commodity sets and connector layouts.

Separation↗
NASA NTRS2014

Mars Sample Return Using Commercial Capabilities: Mission Architecture Overview

Mars Sample Return (MSR) is the highest priority science mission for the next decade as recommended by the recent Decadal Survey of Planetary Science. This paper presents an overview of a feasibility study for an MSR mission. The objective of the study was to determine whether emerging commercial capabilities can be used to reduce the number of mission systems and launches required to return the samples, with the goal of reducing mission cost. We report the feasibility of a complete and closed MSR mission design using the following scenario that covers three synodic launch opportunities, beginning with the 2022 opportunity: A Falcon Heavy injects a SpaceX Red Dragon capsule and trunk onto a Trans Mars Injection (TMI) trajectory. The capsule is modified to carry all the hardware needed to return samples collected on Mars including a Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV), an Earth Return Vehicle (ERV), and hardware to transfer a sample collected in a previously landed rover mission to the ERV. The Red Dragon descends to land on the surface of Mars using Super Sonic Retro Propulsion (SSRP). After previously collected samples are transferred to the ERV, the single-stage MAV launches the ERV from the surface of Mars. The MAV uses a storable liquid bi-propellant propulsion system to deliver the ERV to a Mars phasing orbit. After a brief phasing period, the ERV, which also uses a storable bi-propellant system, performs a Trans Earth Injection (TEI) burn. Upon arrival at Earth, the ERV performs Earth and lunar swing-bys and is placed into a lunar trailing circular orbit - an Earth orbit, at lunar distance. A later mission, using Dragon and launched by a Falcon Heavy, performs a rendezvous with the ERV in the lunar trailing orbit, retrieves the sample container and breaks the chain of contact with Mars by transferring the sample into a sterile and secure container. With the sample contained, the retrieving spacecraft makes a controlled Earth re-entry preventing any unintended release of pristine martian materials into the Earth's biosphere. The analysis methods employed standard and specialized aerospace engineering tools. Mission system elements were analyzed with either direct techniques or by using parametric mass estimating relationships (MERs). The architecture was iterated until overall mission convergence was achieved on at least one path. Subsystems analyzed in this study include support structures, power system, nose fairing, thermal insulation, actuation devices, MAV exhaust venting, and GN&C. Best practice application of loads, mass growth contingencies, and resource margins were used. For Falcon Heavy capabilities and Dragon subsystems we utilized publically available data from SpaceX, published analyses from other sources, as well as our own engineering and aerodynamic estimates. Earth Launch mass is under 11 mt, which is within the estimated capability of a Falcon Heavy, with margin. Total entry masses between 7 and 10 mt were considered with closure occurring between 9 and 10 mt. Propellant mass fractions for each major phase of the EDL - Entry, Terminal Descent, and Hazard Avoidance - have been derived. An assessment of the effect of the entry conditions on the thermal protection system (TPS), currently in use for Dragon missions, shows no significant stressors. A useful payload mass of 2.0 mt is provided and includes mass growth allowances for the MAV, the ERV, and mission unique equipment. We also report options for the MAV and ERV, including propulsion systems, crewed versus robotic retrieval mission, as well as direct Earth entry. International planetary protection policies as well as verifiable means of compliance will have a large impact on any MSR mission design. We identify areas within our architecture where such impacts occur. We also describe preliminary compliance measures that will be the subject of future work. This work shows that emerging commercial capabilities as well as new methodologies can be used to efficiently support an important planetary science objective. The work also has applications for human exploration missions that use propulsive EDL techniques

Red Dragon↗
NASA NTRS2013

Mars Sample Return Using Commercial Capabilities: Mission Architecture Overview

Mars Sample Return (MSR) is the highest priority science mission for the next decade as recommended by the recent Decadal Survey of Planetary Science. This paper presents an overview of a feasibility study for a MSR mission. The objective of the study was to determine whether emerging commercial capabilities can be used to reduce the number of mission systems and launches required to return the samples, with the goal of reducing mission cost. The major element required for the MSR mission are described and include an integration of the emerging commercial capabilities with small spacecraft design techniques; new utilizations of traditional aerospace technologies; and recent technological developments. We report the feasibility of a complete and closed MSR mission design using the following scenario that covers three synodic launch opportunities, beginning with the 2022 opportunity: A Falcon Heavy injects a SpaceX Red Dragon capsule and trunk onto a Trans Mars Injection (TMI) trajectory. The capsule is modified to carry all the hardware needed to return samples collected on Mars including a Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV); an Earth Return Vehicle (ERV); and hardware to transfer a sample collected in a previously landed rover mission to the ERV. The Red Dragon descends to land on the surface of Mars using Supersonic Retro Propulsion (SRP). After previously collected samples are transferred to the ERV, the single-stage MAV launches the ERV from the surface of Mars to a Mars phasing orbit. The MAV uses a storable liquid, pump fed bi-propellant propulsion system. After a brief phasing period, the ERV, which also uses a storable bi-propellant system, performs a Trans Earth Injection (TEI) burn. Once near Earth the ERV performs Earth and lunar swing-bys and is placed into a Lunar Trailing Orbit (LTO0 - an Earth orbit, at lunar distance. A later mission, using a Dragon and launched by a Falcon Heavy, performs a rendezvous with the ERV in the lunar trailing orbit, retrieves the sample container and breaks the chain of contact with Mars by transferring the sample into a sterile and secure container. With the sample contained, the retrieving spacecraft, makes a controlled Earth re-entry preventing any unintended release of pristine Martian materials into the Earth's biosphere. Other capsule type vehicles and associated launchers may be applicable. The analysis methods employed standard and specialized aerospace engineering tools. Mission system elements were analyzed with either direct techniques or by using parametric mass estimating relationships (MERs). The architecture was iterated until overall mission convergence was achieved on at least one path. Subsystems analyzed in this study include support structures, power system, nose fairing, thermal insulation, actuation devices, MAV exhaust venting, and GN&C. Best practice application of loads, mass growth contingencies, and resource margins were used. For Falcon Heavy capabilities and Dragon subsystems we utilized publically available data from SpaceX; published analyses from other sources; as well as our own engineering and aerodynamic estimates. Earth Launch mass is under 11 mt, which is within the estimated capability of a Falcon Heavy, with margin. Total entry masses between 7 and 10 mt were considered with closure occurring between 9 and 10 mt. Propellant mass fractions for each major phase of the EDL - Entry, Terminal Descent, and Hazard Avoidance - have been derived. An assessment of the entry conditions on the thermal protection system (TPS), currently in use for Dragon missions, has been made. And shows no significant stressors. A useful mass of 2.0 mt is provided and includes mass growth allowances for the MAV, the ERV, and mission unique equipment. We also report on alternate propellant options for the MAV and options for the ERV, including propulsion systems; crewed versus robotic retrieval mission; as well as direct Earth entry. International Planetary Protection Policies as well as verifiable means of compliance will have a large impact on any MSR mission design. We identify areas within our architecture where such impacts occur. This work shows that emerging commercial capabilities can be used to effectively integrated into a mission to achieve an important planetary science objective.

Mars Sample Return↗
NASA NTRS2014

Space Launch System Ascent Flight Control Design

A robust and flexible autopilot architecture for NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) family of launch vehicles is presented. As the SLS configurations represent a potentially significant increase in complexity and performance capability of the integrated flight vehicle, it was recognized early in the program that a new, generalized autopilot design should be formulated to fulfill the needs of this new space launch architecture. The present design concept is intended to leverage existing NASA and industry launch vehicle design experience and maintain the extensibility and modularity necessary to accommodate multiple vehicle configurations while relying on proven and flight-tested control design principles for large boost vehicles. The SLS flight control architecture combines a digital three-axis autopilot with traditional bending filters to support robust active or passive stabilization of the vehicle's bending and sloshing dynamics using optimally blended measurements from multiple rate gyros on the vehicle structure. The algorithm also relies on a pseudo-optimal control allocation scheme to maximize the performance capability of multiple vectored engines while accommodating throttling and engine failure contingencies in real time with negligible impact to stability characteristics. The architecture supports active in-flight load relief through the use of a nonlinear observer driven by acceleration measurements, and envelope expansion and robustness enhancement is obtained through the use of a multiplicative forward gain modulation law based upon a simple model reference adaptive control scheme.

VanZwieten, Tannen S.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Prognostics Uncertainty Management with Application to Government and Industry

Predictions about the future are contingent on future usage, but also on the quality of the models employed and the assessment of the current health state. These factors, amongst others, need to be considered to arrive at a prediction that is conducted through a rigorous method but where the confidence bounds are not prohibitively large.

Prognostics↗
NASA NTRS2014

Space Launch System Ascent Flight Control Design

A robust and flexible autopilot architecture for NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) family of launch vehicles is presented. The SLS configurations represent a potentially significant increase in complexity and performance capability when compared with other manned launch vehicles. It was recognized early in the program that a new, generalized autopilot design should be formulated to fulfill the needs of this new space launch architecture. The present design concept is intended to leverage existing NASA and industry launch vehicle design experience and maintain the extensibility and modularity necessary to accommodate multiple vehicle configurations while relying on proven and flight-tested control design principles for large boost vehicles. The SLS flight control architecture combines a digital three-axis autopilot with traditional bending filters to support robust active or passive stabilization of the vehicle's bending and sloshing dynamics using optimally blended measurements from multiple rate gyros on the vehicle structure. The algorithm also relies on a pseudo-optimal control allocation scheme to maximize the performance capability of multiple vectored engines while accommodating throttling and engine failure contingencies in real time with negligible impact to stability characteristics. The architecture supports active in-flight disturbance compensation through the use of nonlinear observers driven by acceleration measurements. Envelope expansion and robustness enhancement is obtained through the use of a multiplicative forward gain modulation law based upon a simple model reference adaptive control scheme.

Orr, Jeb S.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Spacecraft Hybrid (Mixed-Actuator) Attitude Control Experiences on NASA Science Missions

There is a heightened interest within NASA for the design, development, and flight implementation of mixed-actuator hybrid attitude control systems for science spacecraft that have less than three functional reaction wheel actuators. This interest is driven by a number of recent reaction wheel failures on aging, but what could be still scientifically productive, NASA spacecraft if a successful hybrid attitude control mode can be implemented. Over the years, hybrid (mixed-actuator) control has been employed for contingency attitude control purposes on several NASA science mission spacecraft. This paper provides a historical perspective of NASA's previous engineering work on spacecraft mixed-actuator hybrid control approaches. An update of the current situation will also be provided emphasizing why NASA is now so interested in hybrid control. The results of the NASA Spacecraft Hybrid Attitude Control Workshop, held in April of 2013, will be highlighted. In particular, the lessons learned captured from that workshop will be shared in this paper. An update on the most recent experiences with hybrid control on the Kepler spacecraft will also be provided. This paper will close with some future considerations for hybrid spacecraft control.

Dennehy, Cornelius J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Designing an Alternate Mission Operations Control Room

The Huntsville Operations Support Center (HOSC) is a multi-project facility that is responsible for 24x7 real-time International Space Station (ISS) payload operations management, integration, and control and has the capability to support small satellite projects and will provide real-time support for SLS launches. The HOSC is a serviceoriented/ highly available operations center for ISS payloads-directly supporting science teams across the world responsible for the payloads. The HOSC is required to endure an annual 2-day power outage event for facility preventive maintenance and safety inspection of the core electro-mechanical systems. While complete system shut-downs are against the grain of a highly available sub-system, the entire facility must be powered down for a weekend for environmental and safety purposes. The consequence of this ground system outage is far reaching: any science performed on ISS during this outage weekend is lost. Engineering efforts were focused to maximize the ISS investment by engineering a suitable solution capable of continuing HOSC services while supporting safety requirements. The HOSC Power Outage Contingency (HPOC) System is a physically diversified compliment of systems capable of providing identified real-time services for the duration of a planned power outage condition from an alternate control room. HPOC was designed to maintain ISS payload operations for approximately three continuous days during planned HOSC power outages and support a local Payload Operations Team, International Partners, as well as remote users from the alternate control room located in another building. This paper presents the HPOC architecture and lessons learned during testing and the planned maiden operational commissioning. Additionally, this paper documents the necessity of an HPOC capability given the unplanned HOSC Facility power outage on April 27th, 2011, as a result of the tornado outbreak that damaged the electrical grid to such a degree that significantly inhibited the Tennessee Valley Authority's ability to transmit electricity throughout the North Alabama region.

Montgomery, Patty↗
NASA NTRS2014

Designing an Alternate Mission Operations Control Room

The Huntsville Operations Support Center (HOSC) is a multi-project facility that is responsible for 24x7 real-time International Space Station (ISS) payload operations management, integration, and control and has the capability to support small satellite projects and will provide real-time support for SLS launches. The HOSC is a service-oriented/ highly available operations center for ISS payloads-directly supporting science teams across the world responsible for the payloads. The HOSC is required to endure an annual 2-day power outage event for facility preventive maintenance and safety inspection of the core electro-mechanical systems. While complete system shut-downs are against the grain of a highly available sub-system, the entire facility must be powered down for a weekend for environmental and safety purposes. The consequence of this ground system outage is far reaching: any science performed on ISS during this outage weekend is lost. Engineering efforts were focused to maximize the ISS investment by engineering a suitable solution capable of continuing HOSC services while supporting safety requirements. The HOSC Power Outage Contingency (HPOC) System is a physically diversified compliment of systems capable of providing identified real-time services for the duration of a planned power outage condition from an alternate control room. HPOC was designed to maintain ISS payload operations for approximately three continuous days during planned HOSC power outages and support a local Payload Operations Team, International Partners, as well as remote users from the alternate control room located in another building.

Montgomery, Patty↗
NASA NTRS2014

An Overview of the Concept of Operations for Assembly, Integration, Testing and Ground Servicing Developed for the MPCV-ESM Propulsion System

A concept of operations for the Assembly, Integration and Testing (AIT) and the Ground Systems Development Operations (GSDO) of the European Service Module (ESM) propulsion system has been developed. The AIT concept of operations covers all fabrication, integration and testing activities in both Europe and in the United States. The GSDO Program develops the facilities, equipment, and procedures for the loading of hypergolic propellants, the filling of high-pressure gases, and contingency de-servicing operations for the ESM. NASA and ESA along with the Lockheed Martin and Airbus Space and Defense are currently working together for the EM-1 and EM-2 missions in which the ESM will be flown as part of the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV). The NASA/ESA SM propulsion team is collaborating with the AIT personnel from ESA/Airbus and NASA/Lockheed Martin to ensure successful integration of the European designed Service Module propulsion system, the Lockheed Martin designed Crew Module Adapter and the heritage Space Shuttle Orbital Maneuvering System Engines (OMS-E) being provided as Government Furnished Equipment (GFE). This paper will provide an overview of the current AIT and GSDO concept of operations for the ESM propulsion system.

Propulsion↗
NASA NTRS2014

MAG4 Versus Alternative Techniques for Forecasting Active-Region Flare Productivity

MAG4 is a technique of forecasting an active region's rate of production of major flares in the coming few days from a free-magnetic-energy proxy. We present a statistical method of measuring the difference in performance between MAG4 and comparable alternative techniques that forecast an active region's major-flare productivity from alternative observed aspects of the active region. We demonstrate the method by measuring the difference in performance between the "Present MAG4" technique and each of three alternative techniques, called "McIntosh Active-Region Class," "Total Magnetic Flux," and "Next MAG4." We do this by using (1) the MAG4 database of magnetograms and major-flare histories of sunspot active regions, (2) the NOAA table of the major-flare productivity of each of 60 McIntosh active-region classes of sunspot active regions, and (3) five technique-performance metrics (Heidke Skill Score, True Skill Score, Percent Correct, Probability of Detection, and False Alarm Rate) evaluated from 2000 random two-by-two contingency tables obtained from the databases. We find that (1) Present MAG4 far outperforms both McIntosh Active-Region Class and Total Magnetic Flux, (2) Next MAG4 significantly outperforms Present MAG4, (3) the performance of Next MAG4 is insensitive to the forward and backward temporal windows used, in the range of one to a few days, and (4) forecasting from the free-energy proxy in combination with either any broad category of McIntosh active-region classes or any Mount Wilson active-region class gives no significant performance improvement over forecasting from the free-energy proxy alone (Present MAG4).

Falconer, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Application of Fault Management Theory to the Quantitive Selection of a Launch Vehicle Abort Trigger Suite

SHM/FM theory has been successfully applied to the selection of the baseline set Abort Triggers for the NASA SLS center dot Quantitative assessment played a useful role in the decision process  M&FM, which is new within NASA MSFC, required the most "new" work, as this quantitative analysis had never been done before center dot Required development of the methodology and tool to mechanize the process center dot Established new relationships to the other groups  The process is now an accepted part of the SLS design process, and will likely be applied to similar programs in the future at NASA MSFC  Future improvements center dot Improve technical accuracy ‒Differentiate crew survivability due to an abort, vs. survivability even no immediate abort occurs (small explosion with little debris) ‒Account for contingent dependence of secondary triggers on primary triggers ‒Allocate "Δ LOC Benefit" of each trigger when added to the previously selected triggers. center dot Reduce future costs through the development of a specialized tool  Methodology can be applied to any manned/unmanned vehicle, in space or terrestrial

Lo, Yunnhon↗
NASA NTRS2014

Virtualization - A Key Cost Saver in NASA Multi-Mission Ground System Architecture

With science team budgets being slashed, and a lack of adequate facilities for science payload teams to operate their instruments, there is a strong need for innovative new ground systems that are able to provide necessary levels of capability processing power, system availability and redundancy while maintaining a small footprint in terms of physical space, power utilization and cooling.The ground system architecture being presented is based off of heritage from several other projects currently in development or operations at Goddard, but was designed and built specifically to meet the needs of the Science and Planetary Operations Control Center (SPOCC) as a low-cost payload command, control, planning and analysis operations center. However, this SPOCC architecture was designed to be generic enough to be re-used partially or in whole by other labs and missions (since its inception that has already happened in several cases!)The SPOCC architecture leverages a highly available VMware-based virtualization cluster with shared SAS Direct-Attached Storage (DAS) to provide an extremely high-performing, low-power-utilization and small-footprint compute environment that provides Virtual Machine resources shared among the various tenant missions in the SPOCC. The storage is also expandable, allowing future missions to chain up to 7 additional 2U chassis of storage at an extremely competitive cost if they require additional archive or virtual machine storage space.The software architecture provides a fully-redundant GMSEC-based message bus architecture based on the ActiveMQ middleware to track all health and safety status within the SPOCC ground system. All virtual machines utilize the GMSEC system agents to report system host health over the GMSEC bus, and spacecraft payload health is monitored using the Hammers Integrated Test and Operations System (ITOS) Galaxy Telemetry and Command (TC) system, which performs near-real-time limit checking and data processing on the downlinked data stream and injects messages into the GMSEC bus that are monitored to automatically page the on-call operator or Systems Administrator (SA) when an off-nominal condition is detected. This architecture, like the LTSP thin clients, are shared across all tenant missions.Other required IT security controls are implemented at the ground system level, including physical access controls, logical system-level authentication authorization management, auditing and reporting, network management and a NIST 800-53 FISMA-Moderate IT Security plan Risk Assessment Contingency Plan, helping multiple missions share the cost of compliance with agency-mandated directives.The SPOCC architecture provides science payload control centers and backup mission operations centers with a cost-effective, standardized approach to virtualizing and monitoring resources that were traditionally multiple racks full of physical machines. The increased agility in deploying new virtual systems and thin client workstations can provide significant savings in personnel costs for maintaining the ground system. The cost savings in procurement, power, rack footprint and cooling as well as the shared multi-mission design greatly reduces upfront cost for missions moving into the facility. Overall, the authors hope that this architecture will become a model for how future NASA operations centers are constructed!

Ground System Architecture↗