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At least 1,387 records · Page 77

Hybrid Analytics Solution for Power Plant Operations

Expert Microsystems, Inc., MapEx Software Inc. and XMPLR Energy LLC have teamed to submit a proposal to the US Department of Energy’s Office of Fossil Energy to improve the efficiency, reliability and flexibility of existing coal-based power plants. The project, titled Hybrid Analytics Solution to Improve Coal Power Plant Operations (the “Hybrid Analytics” project), will develop, demonstrate and commercialize a novel approach that integrates two proven real-time monitoring techniques. The Hybrid Analytics approach integrates into a single, integrated solution: a) an established, advanced data-driven analytics solution that includes artificial intelligence, advanced pattern recognition and machine-learning techniques and b) a well-proven, first principle thermal heat balance model solution. The future role of coal plants will depend on the ability to cycle and follow loads to meet marginal power demands, accommodate renewables and support the grid. Essential to success in this new role is a plant’s ability to maintain high reliability, efficiency and flexibility. However, these changing operational demands put significant stresses on power plant components that directly impact the ability to deliver these requirements. In the past, plants have independently monitored performance using physics-based solutions (heat rate, boiler losses, etc.) and reliability using data-driven analytics (advanced pattern recognition). The Hybrid Analytics solution integrates both approaches to enhance fault detection, provide automated diagnostics and estimates of remaining time to act, and provide critical, enhanced and accurate real-time information to coal plant operators. As a result, coal plants can improve efficiency, reliability, and flexibility and can cost-effectively maintain their key role in the power delivery system.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Commercial Building Technology Demonstration (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The background for this project was a unique and innovative concept that had been proposed and demonstrated by enVerid Systems, reducing the energy consumption in HVAC systems in commercial and public buildings by up to 50% at peak loads. The concept involves selective scrubbing of gas contaminants from indoor air as a practical substitute for outside air ventilation, the latter being the conventional practice today. This scrubbing enables recycling of most of the indoor air and significantly decreasing the amount of outside air, resulting in a reduced HVAC load and commensurate energy savings for the facility. Key to our approach is low cost scrubbing of all gas contaminants from indoor air using novel, efficient and regenerable sorbent materials. The total solution, labeled HLR (HVAC Load Reduction) is implemented by means of compact modules that can be retrofitted onto virtually any building, and utilizes novel sorbents that have been developed and brought to scale production by enVerid. Although the technology had been deployed and demonstrated, the US commercial building and HVAC markets, famously conservative with respect to innovation and new technologies, had yet to embrace the idea or the product. The overarching goal of the project was to help overcome market hesitancy and enable widespread adoption, by creating a critical mass of success stories across different regions and building types, all under oversight and verification of the DOE and NREL, to ensure credibility and accuracy. The project, overall, was a resounding success. Several installations were deployed and tested comprehensively for the impact on both energy consumption and indoor air quality, and results were not only excellent, but quantitatively in line with expectations. A total number of eight (8) installations were attempted, with 2 aborted due to building issues. Of the six successful installations, however, complete M&V was performed by NREL on 2 (Miami and NYC) and partial analysis on a third site (ArcBest), and these three, along with their results, were therefore presented from a financial and reporting standpoint. Although the number of case studies fell short of the original target of 10, we nevertheless had excellent demonstrations in vastly different climate zones: Southeast, Northeast and Midwest, and in very different building types. This included a modern high-rise office building in New York City and a University Campus health center in Miami, and a mid-rise high-density office in Arkansas. The cooling load reduction was shown to be significant, averaging 37% during the final cooling season in the Miami site. In the NYC site, the cooling energy savings were generally less, at around 12%, as expected. While this is a lower number for average/total savings, two comments are important to note: (i) the outside airflow (OA) reduction was not consistent during the data collection period, at least in part understating the attainable savings through incorrect measurement of the “high energy” reference state; and (ii) the peak impact in NYC is almost certainly as high as Miami, with critical ramifications for peak load reduction and equipment downsizing ability. Importantly, the measured energy savings in all locations were related to the outdoor climate conditions and the actual achievable reduction in outside air, very much in line with models and calculations; this leaves us with increased confidence in our understanding of the interaction between the technology and the building, and our ability to project the impact of this innovation in the future, through broad adoption. Simply put: the energy savings and load reduction impact of the HLR solution has been confirmed quantitatively. The results also confirmed the air quality objective. This may be even more significant, in that air quality is more complex and harder to measure and quantify, and the performance of the HLR as an air scrubber is the linchpin of the entire solution. In all sites, indoor air quality met or exceeded the required parameters, in terms of achieving the target (low) levels of indoor pollutants. Furthermore, the concentrations of outdoor sourced pollutants were markedly lower, as expected, mostly due to the reduction in outside air intake although in part also due to the scrubbing. The success was not immediate nor easy, and early challenges with the systems, especially (but not only) around controls and communication, caused delays in commissioning and undermined some of our M&V schedules. The good news is no fundamental issues were encountered and the number of such glitches was declining quickly by the end of the project. Other challenges had to do with coordinating the control of the building OA dampers, which the HLR needs to have in order to deliver the load reduction, but which the facility manager controls regularly and independently. This is not necessarily a problem for normal HLR operation but interferes with accurate M&V, where switching OA settings back and forth on a precise timetable is essential for clean data. The project provided valuable experience in retrofitting buildings that had been originally designed to operate with less recirculation and more outside air, and some key learnings related to the cyclical regeneration of the sorbents in the operational environment of the building. Some of these learnings gave already been incorporated into ongoing improvements in the design of the HLR module as well as the software that is used to control its operation. The cost and time of retrofit installations is much better understood; so is the test and balance procedure of the building that determines the available range of outside air reduction, which in turn determines the amount of load reduced. We had also implemented at least one annual cycle of sorbent cartridge replacement in the field, after which we tested the used sorbent to assess the rate of degradation of sorbent potency – an important factor affecting the long-term economics of HLR deployments. A notable shortfall of the project, other than the fact that the number of sites was below target, was that we had not (yet) completed testing to measure and verify (M&V) the winter energy savings. This is primarily due to late start on the NYC sites (Miami does not portend any heating savings associated with reduced outside air), combined with the issues of OA damper control. It is by no means suggested that such savings cannot be captured, only that the M&V with respect to winter in NYC has been incomplete. The value of this project and its interest to the general public are hard to overstate. The case studies created from Miami and especially from NYC have, without a doubt, opened up the interest of the broad HVAC industry to HLR in the past year. Major manufacturer reps have signed up to represent and promote the product, and dozens of top tier engineering consultants have introduced HLR as a base of design in upcoming construction and renovation projects – precisely the overarching goal of this project. These would not have happened without the highly visible installation in NYC and its ultimately satisfied customer. Furthermore, the DOE itself issued a report in late 2017 analyzing hundreds of candidate technologies for reducing energy consumption in HVAC; remarkably, the budding HLR solution ranked among the top 3(!); no doubt, its status as a viable and significant contender on this list is informed by the success of these demonstrations. And furthermore, in the wake of these demos, several major energy utilities, led by ConEdison in NYC, have endorsed the HLR solution and now routinely provide substantial cash rebates for customers choosing to incorporate the HLR in their buildings and reap the benefit of the reduced peak load as well as reduced cumulative energy demand. Last but not least, in January of 2019, as this report was being written, the HLR module won the AHR Expo Innovation Award for Green Buildings and, remarkably, the prestigious and only Product of the Year 2019, being selected by an independent professional panel of judges from AHR and ASHRAE. Given the confirmation of the enormous energy saving potential of HLR in widescale deployment, as well as ancillary but significant benefits in terms of equipment downsizing and indoor air quality, the benefit of this effort to the public speaks for itself. Accelerating adoption of HLR, without dependence on subsidies and driven by the private sector, is well under way. There is still much work to be done in terms of educating the HVAC and construction ecosystems and improving the product’s robustness and simplicity, to further facilitate the adoption of this technology and the capture of its potential value. But the American public will greatly benefit both directly and indirectly in the immediate future and beyond.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Variable Emissivity Through MEMS Technology

This paper discusses a new technology for variable emissivity (vari-e) radiator surfaces, which has significant advantages over traditional radiators and promises an alternative design technique for future spacecraft thermal control systems. All spacecraft rely on radiative surfaces to dissipate waste heat. These radiators have special coatings, typically with a low solar absorptivity and a high infrared-red emissivity, that are intended to optimize performance under the expected heat load and thermal sink environment. The dynamics of the heat loads and thermal environment make it a challenge to properly size the radiator and often require some means of regulating the heat rejection rate of the radiators in order to achieve proper thermal balance. Specialized thermal control coatings, which can passively or actively adjust their emissivity offer an attractive solution to these design challenges. Such systems would allow intelligent control of the rate of heat loss from a radiator in response to heat load and thermal environmental variations. Intelligent thermal control through variable emissivity systems is well suited for nano and pico spacecraft applications where large thermal fluctuations are expected due to the small thermal mass and limited electric resources. Presently there are three different types of vari-e technologies under development: Micro ElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) louvers, Electrochromic devices, and Electrophoretic devices. This paper will describe several prototypes of micromachined (MEMS) louvers and experimental results for the emissivity variations measured on theses prototypes. It will further discuss possible actuation mechanisms and space reliability aspects for different designs. Finally, for comparison parametric evaluations of the thermal performances of the new vari-e technology and standard thermal control systems are presented in this paper.

Darrin, Ann Garrison↗

Highly Reliable Multi-Port Smart Inverter Modules for PV-Based Energy Systems

Generally, large electrolytic capacitors (E-caps) are required to decouple the double-line frequency power fluctuation inherent in all single-phase dc-ac or ac-dc converters. These E-caps pose the weak link in the photovoltaic (PV) inverter because they have poor reliability as a result of short life expectancy and higher equivalent series resistance (ESR) which leads to lower system efficiency. In this paper, multiport smart dual-inverter modules are proposed for residential PV inverter systems with balanced outputs to eliminate the requirement of large decoupling capacitors, thus leading to more reliable and highly efficient inverter modules. The balanced dual outputs are controlled in phase quadrature such that the double frequency current is completely eliminated. One phase supports the standalone residential loads, and the other phase interfaces with the grid, which is synchronized to the utility grid. Also, the proposed modular configuration is scalable to accommodate higher power rating by stacking and paralleling multiple modules. Simulation results for the dual-inverter modules rated for 1 kW each are presented to validate the proposed concept. Experimental results from a controller hardware-in-the-loop (CHIL) platform also verify its feasibility.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Investigation of Active Life Balancing to Recondition Li-ion Battery Packs for 2nd Life

An investigation is presented into the application of active life balancing battery management systems to recondition inhomogeneous Li-ion battery packs and achieve homogeneity in capacity for second life. This paper proposes a life balancing objective map, which controls the state of charge references for each cell in a battery pack based on its capacity relative to other cells. The impacts of life balancing objective maps on the reconditioning time and overall pack capacity fade are considered. Moreover, the proposed approach accounts for various load and environmental effects, including depth-of-discharge, battery pack temperature, number of cycles per day, and cells’ resting time at various states of charge. The study results in a battery pack with convergent capacities achieved in minimal time, while curtailing overall capacity fade. Simulation results for a battery pack with sixteen series connected 75 Ah Kokam NMC cells with 3.6% initial capacity imbalance are presented, indicating a reconditioning time of 1.34 months with a final capacity imbalance of 0.1% and an overall capacity fade of 0.005%.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Communication-Constrained Robust Control and Learning of Grid-Connected

The electric grid of things (EGoT) promises great potential for innovative grid services by tapping into vast load flexibility. However, the unique characteristics of EGoT, being a part of the cyber-physical electric power system, present both opportunities and challenges, especially concerning supply-demand balancing, stability, and communication constraints. Traditionally, centralized control was employed to ensure balance and stability in power systems. However, with the massive influx of EGoT devices, new strategies are needed to efficiently coordinate and control these distributed devices for optimal grid operations. While some studies have explored efficiency and economic models, there remains a gap in ensuring reliability under everyday operations and resilience during extreme conditions. Addressing this gap, this project develops the technology for an Energy Service Interface (ESI) that includes novel pricing, control, learning, and distributed optimization algorithms, which will enable utilities to recruit EGoT assets for crucial grid services such as load flexibility, voltage regulation, and situation-awareness. The key novelty of the proposed technology is the careful distribution of learning and control functions across utility and EGoT asset owners such that provably efficient and resilient grid operations are attained while respecting communication and information-exchange constraints. Specifically, the project team develops machine-learning enhanced load modeling methods to allow EGoT asset owners to learn their load capability and flexibility, and develops pricing-based and decentralized learning-based control so that asset owners can coordinate to meet system-wide demand-supply balance and reliability goals. For extreme situations involving high-impact, low-probability catastrophic events (termed the “black-sky” events), the team also develops (1) a “Feeder-Operating Center-on-a-Laptop” (FOCAL) software that can assist utility personnel in leveraging EGoT assets to accelerate the service recovery of damaged feeders, and (2) distributed optimization algorithms that can coordinate the operation points of EGoT devices under severe communication constraints. The proposed technology has been extensively tested and evaluated through simulations and on a testbed. In summary, as we transition into a more interconnected and digital power grid era, our project’s findings and developments offer a pivotal step toward guaranteeing both efficiency and resilience in the face of both everyday operations and rare “black-sky” events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Development of Monte Carlo Simulation Code to Model Behavior of Hydrogen Isotopes Loaded into Tungsten Containing Vacancies

The behavior of hydrogen isotopes implanted into tungsten containing vacancies was simulated using a Monte Carlo technique. The correlations between the distribution of implanted deuterium and fluence, trap density and trap distribution were evaluated. Throughout the present study, qualitatively understandable results were obtained. In order to improve the precision of the model and obtain quantitatively reliable results, it is necessary to deal with the following subjects: (1) how to balance long-time irradiation processes with a rapid diffusion process, (2) how to prevent unrealistic accumulation of hydrogen, and (3) how to model the release of hydrogen forcibly loaded into a region where hydrogen densely exist already.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Steam System Balancing and Tuning for Multifamily Residential Buildings in Chicagoland—Second Year of Data Collection

Steam heated buildings often suffer from uneven heating as a result of poor control of the amount of steam entering each radiator. In order to satisfy the heating load to the coldest units, other units are overheated. As a result, some tenants complain of being too hot and open their windows in the middle of winter, while others complain of being too cold and are compelled to use supplemental heat sources. Building on previous research, CNT Energy identified 10 test buildings in Chicago and conducted a study to identify best practices for the methodology, typical costs, and energy savings associated with steam system balancing. A package of common steam balancing measures was assembled and data were collected on the buildings before and after these retrofits were installed to investigate the process, challenges, and the cost effectiveness of improving steam systems through improved venting and control systems. The test buildings that received venting upgrades and new control systems showed 10.2% savings on their natural gas heating load, with a simple payback of 5.1 years. The methodologies for and findings from this study are presented in detail in this report. This report has been updated from a version published in August 2012 to include natural gas usage information from the 2012 heating season and updated natural gas savings calculations.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Alkaline Peroxide Delignification of Corn Stover

Selective biomass fractionation into carbohydrates and lignin is a key challenge in the conversion of lignocellulosic biomass to fuels and chemicals. In the present study, alkaline hydrogen peroxide (AHP) pretreatment was investigated to fractionate lignin from polysaccharides in corn stover (CS), with a particular emphasis on the fate of the lignin for subsequent valorization. The influence of peroxide loading on delignification during AHP pretreatment was examined over the range of 30-500 mg H2O2/g dry CS at 50 degrees C for 3 h. Mass balances were conducted on the solid and liquid fractions generated after pretreatment for each of the three primary components, lignin, hemicellulose, and cellulose. AHP pretreatment at 250 mg H2O2/g dry CS resulted in the pretreated solids with more than 80% delignification consequently enriching the carbohydrate fraction to >90%. Two-dimensional nuclear magnetic resonance (2D-NMR) spectroscopy of the AHP pretreated residue shows that, under high peroxide loadings (>250 mg H2O2/g dry CS), most of the side chain structures were oxidized and the aryl-ether bonds in lignin were partially cleaved, resulting in significant delignification of the pretreated residues. Gel permeation chromatography (GPC) analysis shows that AHP pretreatment effectively depolymerizes CS lignin into low molecular weight (LMW) lignin fragments in the aqueous fraction. Imaging of AHP pretreated residues shows a more granular texture and a clear lamellar pattern in secondary walls, indicative of layers of varying lignin removal or relocalization. Enzymatic hydrolysis of this pretreated residue at 20 mg/g of glucan resulted in 90% and 80% yields of glucose and xylose, respectively, after 120 h. Overall, AHP pretreatment is able to selectively remove more than 80% of the lignin from biomass in a form that has potential for downstream valorization processes and enriches the solid pulp into a highly digestible material.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Local Power Impact Experiment Design for a New Fuel Type for use in the Advanced Test Reactor

The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR), and complimentary zero-power ATR Critical (ATRC) reactor, located at Idaho National Labs (INL), are undergoing conversion from Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) to Low Enriched Uranium (LEU). Both have a variety of testing locations that can receive large variations in flux due to its unique serpentine design, consisting of five lobes (see Figure 1). Initial criticality and power distribution throughout the core are controlled by core-external outer shim control cylinders (OSCCs). Distinct test loops allow for testing at specific temperatures, pressures, and irradiation conditions. The ATR is one of the key nuclear engineering research and testing facilities within the DOE National Laboratory Complex, and the ATRC supports its operation [1]. Currently, the Office of Material Management and Minimization (M3) within the National Nuclear Security Administration of the DOE is working to convert the remaining research reactors, including the ATR, from 93% HEU fuel to 19.75% LEU fuel (LEU) to support non-proliferation [2]. Extensive materials testing at INL and internationally has demonstrated that a high-density uranium molybdenum (U 10Mo) alloy can meet the performance requirements of the remaining high powered research reactors. However, there are many technical challenges to address before the conversion to LEU can be successful, including the accurate characterization of the reactor core physics with LEU fuel. Reactor physics safety evaluations currently use Monte Carlo for the 21st Century (MC21), a continuous-energy Monte Carlo radiation transport code [3]. Existing MC21 models of the ATR and ATRC cores have a validation basis for use in neutronics analyses with HEU fuel. The models are used to support safety analyses that include comparisons to the safety requirements for the reactors. However, the use of the LOWE element in the ATR and ATRC is not currently covered by the current model validation basis. To deploy the new fuel type, extensive computational reactor physics support is necessary to support the use of LOWE in the ATR and ATRC. Therefore, LOWE requires a rigorous validation basis, aligned with that of HEU fuel, that takes advantage of the existing software tools and processes currently used for the ATR and ATRC. The experiment to validate of the MC21 models for determining power, the Power Impact Validation Experiment, will consist of two flux runs in the ATRC, one with fully HEU loading and one with a single LOWE element. Both flux runs will be instrumented with 20 sets of azimuthal fission wires and 3 sets of axial fission wires, as shown in Figure 4. Standard flux run methodology will be used [4]. Power Impact Validation Experiment data will be compared against MC21 calculated data, both for absolute fission rate accuracy and to determine the relative change in fission rates between the two runs. The results of the Power Impact Validation Experiment and subsequent evaluations will provide the validation basis for MC21 for use with LOWE elements. Key features of the Power Impact Validation Experiment include: (1) Two flux runs to allow for LOWE perturbed measurements to be compared to already validated measurements taken from a full core of HEU fuel, (2) Optimization of instrumentation to balance analytical needs with practical considerations (e.g., limited time window to count beta particles from fission products), and (3) Standard ATRC core loading, including both driver positions and flux traps, to minimize cost while remaining representative of typical ATR core loading.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Development of a differentially balanced magnetic bearing and control system for use with a flywheel energy storage system

The purpose of a magnetically suspended flywheel energy storage system for electric utility load leveling is to provide a means to store energy during times when energy is inexpensive to produce and then return it to the customer during times of peak power demand when generated energy is most expensive. The design of a 20 kWh flywheel energy storage system for electric utility load leveling applications involves the successful integration of a number of advanced technologies so as to minimize the size and cost of the system without affecting its efficiency and reliability. The flywheel energy storage system uses a carbon epoxy flywheel, two specially designed low loss magnetic bearings, a high efficiency motor generator, and a 60 cycle AC power converter all integrated through a microprocessor controller. The basic design is discussed of each of the components that is used in the energy storage design.

Higgins, Mark A.↗

High Frequency Monitoring and Nitrate Sourcing Reveals Baseflow and Stormflow Controls on Total Dissolved Nitrogen and Carbon Export Along a Rural‐Urban Gradient

Abstract Efforts to reduce nitrogen and carbon loading from developed watersheds typically target specific flows or sources, but across gradients in development intensity there is no consensus on the contribution of different flows to total loading or sources of nitrogen export. This information is vital to optimize management strategies leveraging source reductions, stormwater controls, and restorations. We investigate how solute loading and sources vary across flows and land‐use using high frequency monitoring and stable nitrate isotope analysis from five catchments with different sanitary infrastructure, along a gradient in development intensity. High frequency monitoring allowed estimation of annual loading and attribution to storm versus baseflows. Nitrate loads were 16 kg/km 2 /yr. from the forested catchment and ranged from 68 to 119 kg/km 2 /yr., across developed catchments, highest for the septic served site. Across developed catchments, baseflow contributions ranged from 40% of N loading to 75% from the septic served catchment, and the contribution from high stormflows increased with development intensity. Stormflows mobilized and mixed many surface and subsurface nitrate sources while baseflow nitrate was dominated by fewer sources which varied by catchment (soil, wastewater, or fertilizer). To help inform future sampling designs, we demonstrate that grab sampling and targeted storm sampling would likely fail to accurately predict annual loadings within the study period. The dominant baseflow loads and subsurface stormflows are not treated by surface water management practices primarily targeted to surface stormflows. Using a balance of green and gray infrastructure and stream/riparian restoration may target specific flow paths and improve management.

Delesantro, Joseph M.↗

Fracture of PC and PMMA cylinders in the Taylor tests

The present paper analyzes failure observed in polymer rods collided with a steel anvil under the Taylor cylinder impact experiments. The experimental and numerical analysis demonstrates that association of the failure patterns with the loading mode depends on the rod material. Two materials are considered in the paper, specifically, polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA) and polycarbonate (PC). Damage in PMMA rods at the Taylor tests is shown to be dominated by the shear load resulting in plastic deformation. In contrast, the major mechanism of damage in PC rods is governed by omni-directional (pressure) mode of load. Analysis of the damage in sections of the rods associated with the glass transition is also addressed in the present theoretical study. Failure in these polymers follows the traditional fracture wave mechanism for brittle glass-type materials due to load in the corresponding mode. Numerical analysis employs a two-phase model with improved inter-phase thermal balance accounting for the inter-phase mass, momentum, and heat exchanges during the glass phase transition, while damage being accumulated in time. In conclusion, the simulation results demonstrate a good correlation with the experimental results.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A rigorous physics-based enhanced parameter estimation (EPE) methodology for calibration of building energy simulations

Buildings rarely perform as designed/simulated and there are numerous tangible benefits if this gap is reconciled. A new scientifically rigorous yet pragmatic methodology for calibrating building energy simulations - called Enhanced Parameter Estimation (EPE) - is proposed that allows physically relevant parameter estimation rather than a blind force-fit to energy use data. Starting with a rapidly created simulation model, calibration is performed in two stages: (a) building shell calibration with the HVAC system replaced by an ideal system that meets the loads (b) HVAC system calibration with the building shell and all internal loads replaced by a box with only process loads. In the first stage, EPE identifies a small number of high-level heat flows in the energy balance, calculates them with specifically tailored individual driving functions, introduces physically significant parameters to best accomplish energy balance, and, estimates the parameters and their uncertainty bounds. Calibration is thus done with corrective heat flows without any arbitrary tuning of input parameters. Calibration accuracy is enhanced by machine learning of the residual errors. The EPE methodology is demonstrated by means of: a synthetic building and an actual 75,000 sq. ft. building in Pennsylvania. Future work needed for widespread application is discussed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Probabilistic Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy and Storage Requirements for NM's Energy Transition Act (SAND Report)

This report provides a study of the potential impacts of climate change on intermittent renewable energy resources, battery storage, and resource adequacy in Public Service Company of New Mexico’s Integrated Resource Plan for 2020 – 2040. Climate change models and available data were first evaluated to determine uncertainty and potential changes in solar irradiance, temperature, and wind speed in NM in the coming decades. These changes were then implemented in solar and wind energy models to determine impacts on renewable energy resources in NM. Results for the extreme climate-change scenario show that the projected wind power may decrease by ~13% due to projected decreases in wind speed. Projected solar power may decrease by ~4% due to decreases in irradiance and increases in temperature in NM. Uncertainty in these climate-induced changes in wind and solar resources was accommodated in probabilistic models assuming uniform distributions in the annual reductions in solar and wind resources. Uncertainty in battery storage performance was also evaluated based on increased temperature, capacity fade, and degradation in round-trip efficiency. The hourly energy balance was determined throughout the year given uncertainties in the renewable energy resources and energy storage. The loss of load expectation (LOLE) was evaluated for the 2040 No New Combustion portfolio and found to increase from 0 days/year to a median value of ~2 days/year due to potential reductions in renewable energy resources and battery storage performance and capacity. A rank-regression analyses revealed that battery round-trip efficiency was the most significant parameter that impacted LOLE, followed by solar resource, wind resource, and battery fade. An increase in battery storage capacity to ~25,000 – 30,000 MWh from a baseline value of ~14,000 MWh was required to reduce the median value of LOLE to ~0.2 days/year with consideration of potential climate impacts and battery degradation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An efficient algorithm using matrix methods to solve wind tunnel force-balance equations

An iterative procedure applying matrix methods to accomplish an efficient algorithm for automatic computer reduction of wind-tunnel force-balance data has been developed. Balance equations are expressed in a matrix form that is convenient for storing balance sensitivities and interaction coefficient values for online or offline batch data reduction. The convergence of the iterative values to a unique solution of this system of equations is investigated, and it is shown that for balances which satisfy the criteria discussed, this type of solution does occur. Methods for making sensitivity adjustments and initial load effect considerations in wind-tunnel applications are also discussed, and the logic for determining the convergence accuracy limits for the iterative solution is given. This more efficient data reduction program is compared with the technique presently in use at the NASA Langley Research Center, and computational times on the order of one-third or less are demonstrated by use of this new program.

Smith, D. L.↗