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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,387 records · Page 77
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the influence of natural climate variability on in situ measurements of seasonal total and extreme daily precipitation

Abstract While various studies explore the relationship between individual sources of climate variability and extreme precipitation, there is a need for improved understanding of how these physical phenomena simultaneously influence precipitation in the observational record across the contiguous United States. In this work, we introduce a single framework for characterizing the historical signal (anthropogenic forcing) and noise (natural variability) in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation. An important aspect of our analysis is that we simultaneously isolate the individual effects of seven modes of variability while explicitly controlling for joint inter-mode relationships. Our method utilizes a spatial statistical component that uses in situ measurements to resolve relationships to their native scales; furthermore, we use a data-driven procedure to robustly determine statistical significance. In Part I of this work we focus on natural climate variability: detection is mostly limited to DJF and SON for the modes of variability considered, with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Pacific–North American pattern, and the North Atlantic Oscillation exhibiting the largest influence. Across all climate indices considered, the signals are larger and can be detected more clearly for seasonal total versus extreme precipitation. We are able to detect at least some significant relationships in all seasons in spite of extremely large (> 95%) background variability in both mean and extreme precipitation. Furthermore, we specifically quantify how the spatial aspect of our analysis reduces uncertainty and increases detection of statistical significance while also discovering results that quantify the complex interconnected relationships between climate drivers and seasonal precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Field testing and validation of a low-cost MPC for demand flexibility for grid-interactive K-12 schools

K-12 school buildings account for the highest energy consumption within the public sector. Implementing advanced HVAC controls in grid-interactive K-12 schools could bring substantial economic advantages and grid flexibility. Our previous study demonstrated that a low-cost model predictive control (MPC) solution, which coordinates multiple packaged units, can enable demand flexibility without major hardware upgrades. However, a significant gap remains between academic pilots and market-ready scalable solutions. This paper extends the previous single-site pilot to a multi-site demonstration involving three school campuses (95 total units) through a commercial technology transfer process. Addressing the challenge of verifying performance with sparse field data, we present a new statistical approach using Bayesian methods to estimate the MPC’s effect on peak demand. Unlike traditional methods, this approach robustly quantifies uncertainty in non-normal, limited datasets. The results confirm the solution’s replicability, achieving a 21.6–38.9% reduction in HVAC peak demand (10.8–22.1% at the site-level) with > 98% probability across diverse locations. Finally, we document critical barriers to scaling software-as-a-service (SaaS) solutions–such as API instability and diverse legacy systems–and offer practical strategies to accelerate the commercial adoption of grid-interactive efficient buildings.

Ham, Sang Woo↗
DOE OSTI2011

Preoperative Versus Postoperative Radiotherapy in Soft-Tissue Sarcoma: Multi-Institutional Analysis of 821 Patients

Purpose: To assess the impact of radiotherapy (RT) sequencing with surgery on overall survival (OS), cause-specific survival (CSS), local failure, and distant failure in soft-tissue sarcoma (STS). Methods and Materials: A retrospective analysis was conducted using the National Oncology Database, a proprietary database of aggregated tumor registries owned by IMPAC Medical Systems (Sunnyvale, CA). Patients with STS of all major anatomic sites who received definitive surgery and either preoperative (preop) or postoperative (postop) RT were included. Patients were also required to have known stage and grade. Prognostic factors for survival were identified using multivariate techniques. Survival was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and compared for statistical significance (p < 0.05) using the log-rank test. Results: A total of 821 patients met inclusion criteria. The median follow-up time was 63 months. Age, stage, histology, gender, tumor size, and RT sequence were independent predictors for OS (p < 0.05). Preop RT was associated with significantly improved OS and CSS compared with postop RT (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.56-0.91, p < 0.01, and HR = 0.64, 95% CI 0.46-0.88, p < 0.01, respectively). The 5-year CSS was 79% and 74%, in favor of preop RT (log-rank, p < 0.05). Preop RT was also significantly associated with a reduced risk for local and distant relapse compared with postop RT. Conclusion: Preoperative RT is associated with a reduced cancer-specific mortality compared with postoperative RT in STS. The results of this study may serve as motivation to conduct future prospective studies with larger patient numbers.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2014

No Clinically Significant Changes in Pulmonary Function Following Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Early- Stage Peripheral Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: An Analysis of RTOG 0236

Purpose: To investigate pulmonary function test (PFT) results and arterial blood gas changes (complete PFT) following stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) and to see whether baseline PFT correlates with lung toxicity and overall survival in medically inoperable patients receiving SBRT for early stage, peripheral, non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods and Materials: During the 2-year follow-up, PFT data were collected for patients with T1-T2N0M0 peripheral NSCLC who received effectively 18 Gy × 3 in a phase 2 North American multicenter study (Radiation Therapy Oncology Group [RTOG] protocol 0236). Pulmonary toxicity was graded by using the RTOG SBRT pulmonary toxicity scale. Paired Wilcoxon signed rank test, logistic regression model, and Kaplan-Meier method were used for statistical analysis. Results: At 2 years, mean percentage predicted forced expiratory volume in the first second and diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide declines were 5.8% and 6.3%, respectively, with minimal changes in arterial blood gases and no significant decline in oxygen saturation. Baseline PFT was not predictive of any pulmonary toxicity following SBRT. Whole-lung V5 (the percentage of normal lung tissue receiving 5 Gy), V10, V20, and mean dose to the whole lung were almost identical between patients who developed pneumonitis and patients who were pneumonitis-free. Poor baseline PFT did not predict decreased overall survival. Patients with poor baseline PFT as the reason for medical inoperability had higher median and overall survival rates than patients with normal baseline PFT values but with cardiac morbidity. Conclusions: Poor baseline PFT did not appear to predict pulmonary toxicity or decreased overall survival after SBRT in this medically inoperable population. Poor baseline PFT alone should not be used to exclude patients with early stage lung cancer from treatment with SBRT.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2013

Extending the length and time scales of Gram–Schmidt Lyapunov vector computations

Lyapunov vectors have found growing interest recently due to their ability to characterize systems out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The computation of orthogonal Gram–Schmidt vectors requires multiplication and QR decomposition of large matrices, which grow as N{sup 2} (with the particle count). This expense has limited such calculations to relatively small systems and short time scales. Here, we detail two implementations of an algorithm for computing Gram–Schmidt vectors. The first is a distributed-memory message-passing method using Scalapack. The second uses the newly-released MAGMA library for GPUs. We compare the performance of both codes for Lennard–Jones fluids from N=100 to 1300 between Intel Nahalem/Infiniband DDR and NVIDIA C2050 architectures. To our best knowledge, these are the largest systems for which the Gram–Schmidt Lyapunov vectors have been computed, and the first time their calculation has been GPU-accelerated. We conclude that Lyapunov vector calculations can be significantly extended in length and time by leveraging the power of GPU-accelerated linear algebra.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian calibration of a physics-based crystal plasticity and damage model

In this work, we present a model parameter calibration procedure for a physics-based crystal plasticity model. The calibration process utilizes a powerful statistics-based Bayesian calibration method. Calibration of the crystal plasticity parameters makes use of experimentally-measured data, i.e. compressive stress–strain response, from $\langle$100$\rangle$ and $\langle$123$\rangle$ single crystal copper dynamically loaded via Kolsky bar tests. The calibration of damage parameters is achieved using experimentally-measured free-surface velocity history data from plate impact test on $\langle$100$\rangle$ and $\langle$110$\rangle$ single crystal copper, which generates shock compression followed by dynamic tensile failure. A validation assessment is then carried out by comparing the calibrated model predictions and experimental measurements of the dynamic tensile damage generated in an impacted bicrystal copper plate. Lastly, a model-informed rationale for the experimentally-observed dependence of the spatial distribution of ductile damage (porosity) on crystallography is provided.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

High precision real-time insertion device and monochromator synchronization at NSLS-II

We report that insertion devices have become the dominant photon source at synchrotron and free electron laser light source facilities the world over. Undulators, characterized by their small deflection parameter, exhibit a high degree of constructive interference in photon production from high energy charged particle beams leading to very high photon rates at specific harmonics of the fundamental frequency with relatively narrow spectral widths. Spectroscopic measurements of interest typically span several of these harmonic widths, which requires precision adjustment of an undulator’s magnetic gap to maintain peak flux within the much narrower bandwidth of a beamline monochromator at the desired energy. High precision insertion device controls are developed at NSLS-II including real-time linked control of monochromator hardware allowing for fast, high precision, hardware triggered, spectroscopic measurements. Furthermore, this fast fly scan method is described, compared statistically for self consistency, and shown to be far superior in both efficiency and accuracy as compared to standard step scan measurements.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Precession electron diffraction for SiC grain boundary characterization in unirradiated TRISO fuel

Precession electron diffraction (PED), a transmission electron microscopy-based technique, has been evaluated for the suitability for evaluating grain boundary character in the SiC layer of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel. Although the ultimate goal is to determine the grain boundary characteristics of fission product containing grain boundaries of neutron irradiated SiC, our work reports the effect of transmission electron microscope (TEM) lamella thickness on quality of data and establishes a baseline comparison on grain boundary characteristics determined previously using a conventional EBSD scanning electron microscope (SEM) based technique. In general, it was determined that the lamella thickness produced using the standard FIB fabrication process, is sufficient to provide reliable PED measurements with thicker lamellae (~120 nm) produce higher quality orientation data. Analysis of grain boundary character from the TEM-based PED data showed a much lower fraction of low angle grain boundaries compared to SEM-based EBSD data from the SiC layer of the same TRISO-coated particle as well as a SiC layer deposited at a slightly lower temperature. The fractions of high angle and CSL-related grain boundaries determined by PED are similar to those found using SEM-based EBSD. Since the grain size of the SiC layer of TRSIO fuel can be as small as 250 nm [12], depending on the fabrication parameters, and grain boundary fission product precipitates can be nano-sized, the TEM-based PED orientation data collection method is preferred to determine an accurate representation of the relative fractions of low angle, high angle and CSL-related grain boundaries. It was concluded that although the resolution of the PED data is better by more than an order of magnitude, data acquisition times may be significantly longer or the number of areas analyzed significantly larger than the SEM-based method to obtain a statistically relevant distribution. Also, grain size could be accurately determined but significantly larger analysis areas than those used in this study would be required.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Comparison of Photovoltaic Module Luminescence Imaging Techniques: Assessing the Influence of Lateral Currents in High-Efficiency Device Structures

We investigate the implications of using partial or patterned illumination for luminescence imaging of photovoltaic modules. Partial illumination induces local photovoltage variations that drive lateral current flow into non-illuminated cell regions, causing the average injection level to vary over the course of luminescence measurement. The extent of lateral current depends on material properties and is especially significant for high-efficiency devices such as the silicon heterojunction with intrinsic thin layer (HIT) modules that we investigate. We compare four module imaging methods including large-area illumination, scanning-laser illumination, contactless electroluminescence, and pattern-illuminated photoluminescence. By evaluating the statistical correlation among the different methods under varying laser fluences, we conclude that most methods converge to similar results at matched photon dose per cell (not laser power density) for the modules that we study, while pattern-illuminated photoluminescence yields distinct images from the other techniques regardless of the illumination power. Our combined analysis using multiple luminescence imaging techniques gives specific insight into the causes of HIT module degradation, including suspected degradation of the transparent conductive oxide and passivation layer.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantitative Infrared-to-Terahertz Nanospectroscopy of Semiconductors

Semiconductor technology now employs few-nanometer features, necessitating tools probing electronic properties on the same length scale. While the concentration of free charge carriers is routinely measured, the scattering rate remains challenging to access at the nanoscale. Here, we present ultrabroadband (5–50 THz) synchrotron infrared nanospectroscopy as a quantitative metrology tool for semiconductors. This technique can determine both the charge carrier concentration and scattering rate with percent-level accuracy, and it is inherently capable of ∼10 nm spatial resolution. We study silicon with different doping levels and confirm the method’s accuracy by statistical analysis and comparison with established far-field infrared spectroscopy. Near-field measurements systematically reveal charge-carrier concentrations ∼30% lower than far-field values, consistent with increased surface sensitivity and surface depletion. Our work establishes synchrotron infrared nanospectroscopy as a precise tool for quantitative nanoscale semiconductor characterization and paves the way toward all-optical characterization of surface depletion effects.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Empirical modeling of dopability in diamond-like semiconductors

Carrier concentration optimization has been an enduring challenge when developing newly discovered semiconductors for applications (e.g., thermoelectrics, transparent conductors, photovoltaics). This barrier has been particularly pernicious in the realm of high-throughput property prediction, where the carrier concentration is often assumed to be a free parameter and the limits are not predicted due to the high computational cost. In this work, we explore the application of machine learning for high-throughput carrier concentration range prediction. Bounding the model within diamond-like semiconductors, the learning set was developed from experimental carrier concentration data on 127 compounds ranging from unary to quaternary. The data were analyzed using various statistical and machine learning methods. Accurate predictions of carrier concentration ranges in diamond-like semiconductors are made within approximately one order of magnitude on average across both p- and n-type dopability. The model fit to empirical data is analyzed to understand what drives trends in carrier concentration and compared with previous computational efforts. Lastly, dopability predictions from this model are combined with high-throughput quality factor predictions to identify promising thermoelectric materials.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

Nuclear quantum effects enter the mainstream

Atomistic simulations of chemical, biological and materials systems have become increasingly precise and predictive owing to the development of accurate and efficient techniques that describe the quantum mechanical behaviour of electrons. Nevertheless, the overwhelming majority of such simulations still assumes that the nuclei behave as classical particles. Historically, this approximation could sometimes be justified owing to the complexity and computational overhead. However, neglecting nuclear quantum effects has become one of the largest sources of error, especially when systems containing light atoms are treated using current state-of-the-art descriptions of chemical interactions. Over the past decade, this realization has spurred a series of methodological advances that have dramatically reduced the cost of including these important physical effects in the structure and dynamics of chemical systems. We discuss how these developments are now allowing nuclear quantum effects to become a mainstream feature of molecular simulations. These advances have led to new insights into phenomena that are relevant to different areas of science — from biochemistry to condensed matter — and open the door to many exciting future opportunities.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Autonomous plug and play electric vehicle charging scenarios including reactive power provision: a probabilistic load flow analysis

Electric vehicle (EV) charging can have various impacts on low‐voltage distribution systems, along with increasing the uncertainty of network load levels. One method for capturing the statistical uncertainty is probabilistic load flow (PLF). A primary concern of such an approach is determining the correlation between the input variables. Since data are limited, a 1 min resolution bottom‐up time‐variant load model, capturing the changing voltage dependencies of the load, is used for modelling household electrical demand to provide pseudo‐meter data for the three‐phase PLF analysis of a residential distribution network. The correlation between the household and EV charging loads are implicitly taken into account by modelling the EV plug‐in and departure times with the corresponding occupancy model. Two autonomous plug‐and‐play charging scenarios are compared with a standard charging arrangement at both unity and 0.95 capacitive power factors. Four different PLF input correlation scenarios, varying from fully correlated to fully independent, are considered. The proposed charging scenarios and reactive power provision reduce the likelihood of system voltage violations introduced by EVs. The PLF results are verified against those from the initial time‐series analysis providing valuable insight into the uncertainty introduced by EVs and the correlation between household and EV loads.

Melhorn, Alexander C.↗
DOE OSTI2012

Evidence cross-validation and Bayesian inference of MAST plasma equilibria

In this paper, current profiles for plasma discharges on the mega-ampere spherical tokamak are directly calculated from pickup coil, flux loop, and motional-Stark effect observations via methods based in the statistical theory of Bayesian analysis. By representing toroidal plasma current as a series of axisymmetric current beams with rectangular cross-section and inferring the current for each one of these beams, flux-surface geometry and q-profiles are subsequently calculated by elementary application of Biot-Savart's law. The use of this plasma model in the context of Bayesian analysis was pioneered by Svensson and Werner on the joint-European tokamak [Svensson and Werner,Plasma Phys. Controlled Fusion 50(8), 085002 (2008)]. In this framework, linear forward models are used to generate diagnostic predictions, and the probability distribution for the currents in the collection of plasma beams was subsequently calculated directly via application of Bayes' formula. In this work, we introduce a new diagnostic technique to identify and remove outlier observations associated with diagnostics falling out of calibration or suffering from an unidentified malfunction. These modifications enable a good agreement between Bayesian inference of the last-closed flux-surface with other corroborating data, such as that from force balance considerations using EFIT++[Appel et al., ''A unified approach to equilibrium reconstruction'' Proceedings of the 33rd EPS Conference on Plasma Physics (Rome, Italy, 2006)]. In addition, this analysis also yields errors on the plasma current profile and flux-surface geometry as well as directly predicting the Shafranov shift of the plasma core.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Designed microtremor array based actual measurement and analysis of strong ground motion at Palu city, Indonesia

In this study, we investigated the strong ground motion characteristics under Palu City, Indonesia. The shear wave velocity structures evaluated by eight microtremors measurement are the most applicable to determine the thickness of sediments and average shear wave velocity with Vs ≤ 300 m/s. Based on subsurface underground structure models identified, earthquake ground motion was estimated in the future Palu-Koro earthquake by using statistical green’s function method. The seismic microzonation parameters were carried out by considering several significant controlling factors on ground response at January 23, 2005 earthquake.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A generalized Boltzmann kinetic theory for strongly magnetized plasmas with application to friction

Coulomb collisions in plasmas are typically modeled using the Boltzmann collision operator, or its variants, which apply to weakly magnetized plasmas in which the typical gyroradius of particles significantly exceeds the Debye length. Conversely, O’Neil has developed a kinetic theory to treat plasmas that are so strongly magnetized that the typical gyroradius of particles is much smaller than the distance of the closest approach in a binary collision. Here, we develop a generalized collision operator that applies across the full range of magnetization strength. Since there is no closed-form solution for the scattering cross section when plasma is strongly magnetized, the input to the collision operator is obtained by numerically calculating particle trajectories. To demonstrate novel physics associated with strong magnetization, it is used to compute the friction force on a massive test charge. In addition to the traditional stopping power component, this is found to exhibit a transverse component that is perpendicular to both the velocity and Lorentz force vectors in the strongly magnetized regime, as was predicted recently using linear response theory. As a result, good agreement is found between the collision theory and linear response theory in the regime in which both apply, but the new collision theory also applies to stronger magnetization strength regimes than the linear response theory is expected to apply in.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗