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Feasibility of Using Radar for Characterizing and Tracking Plumes

With the enhanced capabilities of NEXRAD radars has come an increased body of research focused on non-weather artifacts in the radar signal. Radar data has been collected and evaluated for a range of plume-generating events. Events such as wildfires, measuring and tracking ash from volcanic eruptions, and tracking plumes from events such as the SpaceX rocket explosion in 2016 have been investigated to determine the useful measurements available in radar data. For decision makers interested in radar use in nuclear forensics or during an emergency response, the usefulness of radar for attempting to provide some answers early in an event is clear. Currently emplaced operational radars provide high spatial and temporal resolution data within minutes of an event. This is not to say radar observations would replace current methods used by decision makers; however, supplementing decision making with radar data can only enhance and better inform the decision process. This report builds on two previous reports submitted in November 2016 and May 2017. This feasibility study demonstrates that radar can be used to improve decision making in the early phases of a plume-generating event by decreasing uncertainty as well as improving source-term inputs in F&T models. Radar coverage exists today in capabilities such as NOAA’s NEXRAD weather surveillance radars and Terminal Doppler Weather Radars. Improvement could be realized quickly by (1) improving awareness of existing radar products and incorporating them into decision making and modeling efforts, (2) evaluating and improving radar coverage around key urban areas and critical infrastructure, and (3) improving radar algorithms to optimize for non-meteorological events such as plumes.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Community-Engaged Modeling of Urban Flood Adaptation Pathways

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle, leading to more frequent and severe rainfall-driven (pluvial) flooding in urban areas. In the mid-Atlantic US cities, aging and under-designed stormwater infrastructure is increasingly strained by these events, resulting in recurring damage to property and disruptions to transportation networks. In this study, we combine community engagement with hydrologic modeling to develop and evaluate potential urban flood adaptation strategies. Over a three-year period, local technical experts and community representatives met regularly to discuss flooding concerns, identify priorities, and co-develop adaptation strategies. These discussions informed the development of an urban flooding model (EPA Storm Water Management Model) for the Baltimore Harbor watershed, the focus location of this study. The flooding model integrates complex surface and subsurface stormwater infrastructure data, local expert knowledge, and community insights. We simulate stakeholder-prioritized adaptations, such as green and gray infrastructure strategies. Model results demonstrate that enhanced infrastructure maintenance is the most effective adaptation for reducing flood depths, but has varied effects across the watershed, and can increase flooding in some locations. Spatially concentrated greening provides limited benefit to the watershed as a whole, but moderate benefit in community priority areas. Together, these adaptations have the potential to reduce flood depths by as much as 58% in some locations, greatly reducing property damage and mobility impacts, primary concerns of stakeholders. Future work will implement robust optimization tools to search for adaptations which meet stakeholder objectives and perform highly under varied future climate conditions. This work contributes to the expanding literature on collaborative modeling and demonstrates that community-engaged approaches can enhance model credibility and generate more actionable insights for communities seeking to strengthen climate resilience.

Spangler, Ava [Pennsylvania State University] (ORC↗

Community-Informed Urban Flood Modeling for Impact Mitigation

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle, leading to more frequent and severe rainfall-driven (pluvial) flooding in urban areas. In the mid-Atlantic US cities, aging and under-designed stormwater infrastructure is increasingly strained by these events, resulting in recurring damage to property and disruptions to transportation networks. In this study, we combine community engagement with hydrologic modeling to develop and evaluate potential urban flood adaptation strategies. Over a three-year period, local technical experts and community representatives met regularly to discuss flooding concerns, identify priorities, and co-develop adaptation strategies. These discussions informed the development of an urban flooding model (EPA Storm Water Management Model) for the Baltimore Harbor watershed, the focus location of this study. The flooding model integrates complex surface and subsurface stormwater infrastructure data, local expert knowledge, and community insights. We simulate stakeholder-prioritized adaptations, such as green and gray infrastructure strategies. Model results demonstrate that enhanced infrastructure maintenance is the most effective adaptation for reducing flood depths, but has varied effects across the watershed, and can increase flooding in some locations. Spatially concentrated greening provides limited benefit to the watershed as a whole, but moderate benefit in community priority areas. Together, these adaptations have the potential to reduce flood depths by as much as 58% in some locations, greatly reducing property damage and mobility impacts, primary concerns of stakeholders. Future work will implement robust optimization tools to search for adaptations which meet stakeholder objectives and perform highly under varied future climate conditions. This work contributes to the expanding literature on collaborative modeling and demonstrates that community-engaged approaches can enhance model credibility and generate more actionable insights for communities seeking to strengthen climate resilience.

Baltimore MD↗

SAS 3 survey of the soft X-ray background

The results of a survey of the soft X-ray sky in the C band (0.10-0.28keV) are reported. The observations were carried out using two independent flow proportional counters on board the SAS 3 X-ray satellite which had a total angular resolution of 2.9 deg FWHM, and a total exposure of 2.2 x 10 to the 4th per sq cm s sr. It is found that C band counting rates were generally inversely correlated with the column density of the neutral hydrogen on all angular scales down to the lowest angular resolution of the detectors. In the region 90-180 deg l and 0-10 deg b, the relation between C-band rates and the column densities of neutral hydrogen was fitted with a residual rms deviation of less than 13 percent by a two-component numerical model of the X-ray background. For the apparent attenuation column density a value of 2.7 x 10 to the 20th per sq cm was obtained. On the basis of a computer simulation of the SAS 3 data, it is shown that the observed clumping of interstellar matter was consistent with the magnitude of spatial fluctuations in the C-band map. When the background rates were subtracted from the survey map, the subsequent map showed foreground emission and absorption features with improved sensitivity and clarity. A series of computer-generated maps incorporating the SAS 3 data is given in an appendix.

Marshall, F. J.↗

Multivariate space - time analysis of PRE-STORM precipitation

This paper presents the methodologies and results of the multivariate modeling and two-dimensional spectral and correlation analysis of PRE-STORM rainfall gauge data. Estimated parameters of the models for the specific spatial averages clearly indicate the eastward and southeastward wave propagation of rainfall fluctuations. A relationship between the coefficients of the diffusion equation and the parameters of the stochastic model of rainfall fluctuations is derived that leads directly to the exclusive use of rainfall data to estimate advection speed (about 12 m/s) as well as other coefficients of the diffusion equation of the corresponding fields. The statistical methodology developed here can be used for confirmation of physical models by comparison of the corresponding second-moment statistics of the observed and simulated data, for generating multiple samples of any size, for solving the inverse problem of the hydrodynamic equations, and for application in some other areas of meteorological and climatological data analysis and modeling.

Polyak, Ilya↗

Cross Scale Coupling of Alfven Turbulence in the Polar Wind Region

Ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling phenomena are extremely complex and diverse, involving a whole series of processes operating over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. One of the fundamental aspects of understanding this coupling is the polar wind, which is a dominant mechanism of mass transport from the ionospheric source region to the magnetosphere and strongly influences the plasma parameters above the F2 density peak. The combined effects of photoelectrons, and the ponderomotive force will be presented based on our polar wind model. The presence of photoelectrons and low frequency oscillations (that create the ponderomotive force) increase ion outflows. It is also demonstrated that large-amplitude low-frequency waves (LFW) may generate lower hybrid waves (LHW) in the auroral zone. The excitation of LHW by a LF wave may lead to the appearance of an additional channel of energy transfer from, for example, Alfven or fast magnetosonic waves, to particles. This process then influences the formation of the plasma distribution function at the expense of acceleration in the tail of the distribution during the collapse of the LHW. The ion energization due to the LHW can be comparable with that produced by the ponderomotive force of the LFW.

Khazanov, George V.↗

The Structure of Coronal Loops

It is widely believed that the simple coronal loops observed by XUV imagers, such as EIT, TRACE, or XRT, actually have a complex internal structure consisting of many (perhaps hundreds) of unresolved, interwoven "strands". According to the nanoflare model, photospheric motions tangle the strands, causing them to reconnect and release the energy required to produce the observed loop plasma. Although the strands, themselves, are unresolved by present-generation imagers, there is compelling evidence for their existence and for the nanoflare model from analysis of loop intensities and temporal evolution. A problem with this scenario is that, although reconnection can eliminate some of the strand tangles, it cannot destroy helicity, which should eventually build up to observable scales. we consider, therefore, the injection and evolution of helicity by the nanoflare process and its implications for the observed structure of loops and the large-scale corona. we argue that helicity does survive and build up to observable levels, but on spatial and temporal scales larger than those of coronal loops. we discuss the implications of these results for coronal loops and the corona, in general .

Antiochos, Spiro K.↗

The First Fermi-LAT SNR Catalog and Cosmic Ray Implications

While supernova remnants (SNRs) are widely thought to be powerful cosmic-ray accelerators, indirect evidence comes from a small number of well-studied cases. Here we systematically determine the gamma-ray emission detected by the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) from all known Galactic SNRs, disentangling them from the sea of cosmic-ray generated photons in the Galactic plane. Using LAT data we have characterized the 1-100 GeV emission in 279 regions containing SNRs, accounting for systematic uncertainties caused by source misattribution and instrumental response. We classified 30 sources as SNRs, using spatial overlap with the radio emission position. For all the remaining regions we evaluated upper limits on SNRs' emission. In the First Fermi-LAT SNR Catalog there is a study of the common characteristics of these SNRs, such as comparisons between GeV, radio and TeV quantities. We show that previously satisfactory models of SNRs' GeV emission no longer adequately describe the data. To address the question of cosmic ray (CR) origins, we also examine the SNRs' maximal CR contribution assuming the GeV emission arises solely from proton interactions. Improved breadth and quality of multiwavelength (MW) data, including distances and local densities, and more, higher resolution gamma-ray data with correspondingly improved Galactic diffuse models will strengthen this constraint.

de Palma, F.↗

The First Fermi-LAT SNR Catalog and Cosmic Ray Implications

While supernova remnants (SNRs) are widely thought to be powerful cosmicray accelerators, indirect evidence comes from a small number of well-studied cases. Here we systematically determine the gamma-ray emission detected by the ermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) from all known Galactic SNRs, disentangling them from the sea of cosmic-ray generated photons in the Galactic plane. Using LAT data we have characterized the 1-100 GeV emission in 279 regions containing SNRs, accounting for systematic uncertainties caused by source misattribution and instrumental response. We classified 30 sources as SNRs, using spatial overlap with the radio emission position. For all the remaining regions we evaluated upper limits on SNRs' emission. In the First Fermi-LAT SNR Catalog there is a study of the common characteristics of these SNRs, such as comparisons between GeV, radio and TeV quantities. We show that previously satisfactory models of SNRs' GeV emission no longer adequately describe the data. To address the question of cosmic ray (CR) origins, we also examine the SNRs' maximal CR contribution assuming the GeV emission arises solely from proton interactions. Improved breadth and quality of multiwavelength (MW) data, including distances and local densities, and more, higher resolution gamma-ray data with correspondingly improved Galactic diffuse models will strengthen this constraint.

de Palma, F.↗

Thick Electrode Design for Facile Electron and Ion Transport: Architectures, Advanced Characterization, and Modeling

The demand for lithium ion batteries continues to expand for powering applications such as portable electronics, grid-scale energy storage, and electric vehicles. As the application requirements advance, the innovation of lithium ion batteries toward higher energy density and power output is required. Along with the investigation of new materials, an important strategy for increasing battery energy content is to design electrodes with high areal loading to minimize the fraction of nonactive materials such as current collectors, separators, and packaging components, resulting in significant gains in energy content and the reduction of the system-level cost. However, the adoption of thick high areal loading electrodes has been impeded by sluggish charge transport and mechanical instability. With conventional slurry cast electrodes, battery function significantly deteriorates with increases in electrode thickness due to high cell polarization and the incomplete utilization of active materials. Thus, a consideration of approaches that facilitate an understanding and eventual adoption of high-loading electrodes is warranted to enable the deliberate advancement of next-generation batteries. Herein, this Account considers three aspects critical to the science and technology of thick high-loading electrodes. The first discussion covers recent approaches to the design and fabrication of high-loading electrodes. Ensuring electrical contact throughout the electrode is accomplished through the manipulation of conductive additives or using a conductive scaffold within the electrode. Ion transport can be facilitated through electrode design and fabrication approaches that deliberately control the electrode porosity and tortuosity. Second, advanced characterization methodologies are presented as the ability to determine the origins of transport limitations provide the insight needed to deliberately approach future designs. Spectroscopic and diffraction methods have been used to characterize the 2D and 3D pore structure and composition of the electrodes. Furthermore, operando methods that yield spatially and temporally resolved information regarding the progression of the electrochemical reaction are highlighted. The third aspect considered is the utilization of modeling. Physically based continuum models linked with the results of experimental characterization have been demonstrated and then allow the rapid simulation of a variety of deliberate electrode designs and their impacts on functional electrochemistry. Variables relevant to the designs can be tested by the model under a series of use conditions to identify those of most promise for a specific application. Finally, an outlook on future opportunities for high-loading battery electrode research is provided to inform and entice practitioners in the field to pursue these important directions of inquiry.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Nanoscale Confinement of Photo-Injected Electrons at Hybrid Interfaces

A prerequisite for advancing hybrid solar light harvesting systems is a comprehensive understanding of the spatiotemporal dynamics of photoinduced interfacial charge separation. Here, we demonstrate access to this transient charge redistribution for a model hybrid system of nanoporous zinc oxide (ZnO) and ruthenium bipyridyl chromophores. The site-selective probing of the molecular electron donor and semiconductor acceptor by time-resolved X-ray photoemission provides direct insight into the depth distribution of the photoinjected electrons and their interaction with the local band structure on a nanometer length scale. Our results show that these electrons remain localized within less than 6 nm from the interface, due to enhanced downward band bending by the photoinjected charge carriers. This spatial confinement suggests that light-induced charge generation and transport in nanoscale ZnO photocatalytic devices proceeds predominantly within the defect-rich surface region, which may lead to enhanced surface recombination and explain their lower performance compared to titanium dioxide (TiO 2 )-based systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Dual color optogenetic control of neural populations using low-noise, multishank optoelectrodes

Optogenetics allows for optical manipulation of neuronal activity and has been increasingly combined with intracellular and extracellular electrophysiological recordings. Genetically-identified classes of neurons are optically manipulated, though the versatility of optogenetics would be increased if independent control of distinct neural populations could be achieved on a sufficient spatial and temporal resolution. We report a scalable multisite optoelectrode design that allows simultaneous optogenetic control of two spatially intermingled neuronal populations in vivo. We describe the design, fabrication, and assembly of low-noise, multisite/multicolor optoelectrodes. Each shank of the four-shank assembly is monolithically integrated with 8 recording sites and a dual-color waveguide mixer with a 7 × 30 μm cross-section, coupled to 405 nm and 635 nm injection laser diodes (ILDs) via gradient-index (GRIN) lenses to meet optical and thermal design requirements. To better understand noise on the recording channels generated during diode-based activation, we developed a lumped-circuit modeling approach for EMI coupling mechanisms and used it to limit artifacts to amplitudes under 100 μV upto an optical output power of 450 μW. We implanted the packaged devices into the CA1 pyramidal layer of awake mice, expressing Channelrhodopsin-2 in pyramidal cells and ChrimsonR in paravalbumin-expressing interneurons, and achieved optical excitation of each cell type using sub-mW illumination. We highlight the potential use of this technology for functional dissection of neural circuits.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The effect of electron transport on the characterization of x-ray free-electron laser pulses via ablation

The spatial intensity distribution of x-ray free-electron laser (XFEL) pulses in-focus is commonly characterized by performing ablative imprints in thin gold films on silica substrates. In many cases, the range of the electrons generated in the gold by x-ray absorption far exceeds the beam size, and so, it is not clear if the results of imprint studies are compromised by electron transport. Thermal conduction could further modify the energy density profile in the material. We used here a combination of Monte-Carlo transport and continuum models to quantify the accuracy of the imprint method for characterizing XFEL beam profiles. We found that for x-ray energies in the range of 1 to 10 keV, the actual and the measured beam diameters agree within 12% or better for beam diameters between 0.1 and 1 μm.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Analytical Models of Frequency and Voltage in Large-Scale All-Inverter Power Systems

Low-order frequency response models for power systems have a decades-long history in optimization and control problems such as unit commitment, economic dispatch, and wide-area control. With a few exceptions, these models are built upon the Newtonian mechanics of synchronous generators, assuming that the frequency dynamics across a system are approximately homogeneous, and assume the dynamics of nodal voltages for most operating conditions are negligible, and thus are not directly computed at all buses. As a result, the use of system frequency models results in the systematic underestimation of frequency minimum nadir and maximum RoCoF, and provides no insight into the reactive power-voltage dynamics. This paper proposes a low-order model of both frequency and voltage response in grid-forming inverter-dominated power systems. The proposed model accounts for spatial-temporal variations in frequency and voltage behavior across a system and as a result, demonstrates the heterogeneity of frequency response in future renewable power systems. Electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulations are used to validate the utility, accuracy, and computational efficiency of these models, setting the basis for them to serve as fast, scalable alternatives to EMT simulation, especially when dealing with very large-scale systems, for both planning and operational studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

High-Fidelity Simulations of Plasma-Assisted Oxidation of Hydrocarbon Fuels Using Nanosecond Pulsed Discharges

Next, a robust and efficient framework for simulating NSPD in multiple dimensions is developed. The reactive Navier-Stokes equations are extended to include a drift-diffusion plasma-fluid model with a local field approximation (LFA) in a finite-volume solver, which uses an adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) strategy to address the wide separation of length scales in the problem. A two-way coupling strategy is used whereby the plasma-fluid model and reactive Navier-Stokes equations are integrated simultaneously. The oxidation of ethylene/air mixtures mediated by NSPD is simulated in a pin-to-pin configuration. All phases of the plasma discharge are simulated explicitly (including streamer ignition, propagation, and connection, as well as the subsequent spark phase), along with the evolution of the plasma during the inter-pulse period. Temporally and spatially-resolved results are presented, with an emphasis on the analysis of heating and energy deposition, as well as of the evolution of the concentration of active particles generated during the NSPD and their influence on ignition.

adaptive mesh refinement↗

Characterization of Extreme Wave Conditions for Wave Energy Converter Design and Project Risk Assessment

Best practices and international standards for determining n-year return period extreme wave (sea states) conditions allow wave energy converter designers and project developers the option to apply simple univariate or more complex bivariate extreme value analysis methods. The present study compares extreme sea state estimates derived from univariate and bivariate methods and investigates the performance of spectral wave models for predicting extreme sea states at buoy locations within several regional wave climates along the US East and West Coasts. Two common third-generation spectral wave models are evaluated, a WAVEWATCH III® model with a grid resolution of 4 arc-minutes (6–7 km), and a Simulating WAves Nearshore model, with a coastal resolution of 200–300 m. Both models are used to generate multi-year hindcasts, from which extreme sea state statistics used for wave conditions characterization can be derived and compared to those based on in-situ observations at National Data Buoy Center stations. Comparison of results using different univariate and bivariate methods from the same data source indicates reasonable agreement on average. Discrepancies are predominantly random. Large discrepancies are common and increase with return period. There is a systematic underbias for extreme significant wave heights derived from model hindcasts compared to those derived from buoy measurements. This underbias is dependent on model spatial resolution. However, simple linear corrections can effectively compensate for this bias. A similar approach is not possible for correcting model-derived environmental contours, but other methods, e.g., machine learning, should be explored.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

The Economic Accessibility of CO2 Sequestration through Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) in the US

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is one strategy to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. To assess the potential scale and cost of CO2 sequestration from BECCS in the US, this analysis models carbon sequestration net of supply chain emissions and costs of biomass production, delivery, power generation, and CO2 capture and sequestration in saline formations. The analysis includes two biomass supply scenarios (near-term and long-term), two biomass logistics scenarios (conventional and pelletized), and two generation technologies (pulverized combustion and integrated gasification combined cycle). Results show marginal cost per tonne CO2 (accounting for costs of electricity and CO2 emissions of reference power generation scenarios) as a function of CO2 sequestered (simulating capture of up to 90% of total CO2 sequestration potential) and associated spatial distribution of resources and generation locations for the array of scenario options. Under a near-term scenario using up to 206 million tonnes per year of biomass, up to 181 million tonnes CO2 can be sequestered annually at scenario-average costs ranging from $62 to $137 per tonne CO2; under a long-term scenario using up to 740 million tonnes per year of biomass, up to 737 million tonnes CO2 can be sequestered annually at scenario-average costs ranging from $42 to $92 per tonne CO2. These estimates of CO2 sequestration potential may be reduced if future competing demand reduces resource availability or may be increased if displaced emissions from conventional power sources are included. Results suggest there are large-scale opportunities to implement BECCS at moderate cost in the US, particularly in the Midwest, Plains States, and Texas.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Operational use of Landsat data for timber inventory

Landsat TM data, digital elevation model (DEM) data, and field observations were used to generate a timber type/structure and land-cover strata map of the Sequoia National Forest in California, U.S. and to create a classification data set. The spectral classes were identified as 32 information classes of land cover or timber type and structure. DEM data were used for the determination of major timber specie types by topographic regions of natural occurrence. The results suggest that, for inventories over large areas, traditional per-pixel classifiers are not appropriate for TM-resolution data sets over spatially complex regions such as forest lands; either resolution must be degraded, or more context-dependent classifiers, such as the ECHO classifier described by Landgrebe (1979), must be used.

Price, Curtis V.↗