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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2012

Characterizing the elements of Earth s radiative budget: Applying uncertainty quantification to the CESM

Understanding and characterizing sources of uncertainty in climate modeling is an important task. Because of the ever increasing sophistication and resolution of climate modeling it is increasing important to develop uncertainty quantification methods that minimize the computational cost that occurs when these methods are added to climate modeling. This research explores the application of sparse stochastic collocation with polynomial edge detection to characterize portions of the probability space associated with the Earth s radiative budget in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Specifically, we develop surrogate models with error estimates for a range of acceptable input parameters that predict statistical values of the Earth s radiative budget as derived from the CESM simulation. We extend these results in resolution from T31 to T42 and in parameter space increasing the degrees of freedom from two to three.

Archibald, Richard K↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fast and scalable quantum Monte Carlo simulations of electron-phonon models

We introduce methodologies for highly scalable quantum Monte Carlo simulations of electron-phonon models, and report benchmark results for the Holstein model on the square lattice. The determinant quantum Monte Carlo (DQMC) method is a widely used tool for simulating simple electron-phonon models at finite temperatures, but incurs a computational cost that scales cubically with system size. Alternatively, near-linear scaling with system size can be achieved with the hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) method and an integral representation of the Fermion determinant. Here, we introduce a collection of methodologies that make such simulations even faster. To combat "stiffness" arising from the bosonic action, we review how Fourier acceleration can be combined with time-step splitting. To overcome phonon sampling barriers associated with strongly-bound bipolaron formation, we design global Monte Carlo updates that approximately respect particle-hole symmetry. To accelerate the iterative linear solver, we introduce a preconditioner that becomes exact in the adiabatic limit of infinite atomic mass. Finally, we demonstrate how stochastic measurements can be accelerated using fast Fourier transforms. Here, these methods are all complementary and, combined, may produce multiple orders of magnitude speedup, depending on model details.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Robust Scheduling of Microgrids Considering Unintentional Islanding Conditions

This paper proposes a robust scheduling model for microgrids considering the stochastic unintentional islanding conditions. The proposed model minimizes the total operating cost of the microgrid by efficiently coordinating the supply of power from local distributed energy resources and the main grid. To capture the prevailing uncertainties in renewable generation and demand as well as unintentional islanding conditions, a two-stage adaptive robust optimization model is formulated to minimize the total operating cost under the worst realization of the modeled uncertainties. The column and constraint generation (C&CG) method is used to solve the problem in an iterative manner. The solution of the proposed scheduling model ensures robust microgrid operation in consideration of all possible realization of renewable generation, demand and unintentional islanding condition. Numerical simulations on a microgrid consisting of a wind turbine, a PV panel, a fuel cell, two micro-turbines, a diesel generator and a battery demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Liu, Guodong↗
DOE OSTI2010

Simulation of the GHG Abatement Potentials in the U.S. Building Sector by 2050

Given the substantial contribution of the U.S. building sector to national carbon emissions, it is clear that to address properly the issue of climate change, one must first consider innovative approaches to understanding and encouraging the introduction of new, low-carbon technologies to both the commercial and residential building markets. This is the motivation behind the development of the Stochastic Lite Building Module (SLBM), a long range, open source model to forecast the impact of policy decisions and consumer behavior on the market penetration of both existing and emerging building technologies and the resulting carbon savings. The SLBM, developed at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), is part of the Stochastic Energy Deployment System (SEDS) project, a multi-laboratory effort undertaken in conjunction with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and private companies. The primary purpose of SEDS is to track the performance of different U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE) Research and Development (R&D) activities on technology adoption, overall energy efficiency, and CO{sub 2} reductions throughout the whole of the U.S. economy. The tool is fundamentally an engineering-economic model with a number of characteristics to distinguish it from existing energy forecasting models. SEDS has been written explicitly to incorporate uncertainty in its inputs leading to uncertainty bounds on the subsequent forecasts. It considers also passive building systems and their interactions with other building service enduses, including the cost savings for heating, cooling, and lighting due to different building shell/window options. Such savings can be compared with investments costs in order to model real-world consumer behavior and forecast adoption rates. The core objective of this paper is to report on the new window and shell features of SLBM and to show the implications of various USDOE research funding scenarios on the adoption of these and other building energy technologies. The results demonstrate that passive technologies contain significant potential for carbon reductions - exceeding 1165 Mt cumulative savings between 2005 and 2050 (with 50% likelihood) and outperforming similar R&D funding programs for distributed photovoltaics and high efficiency solid-state lighting.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2014

Onset of electron acceleration in a flare loop

We carried out a detailed analysis of X-ray and radio observations of a simple flare loop that occurred on 2002 August 12, with the impulsive hard X-ray (HXR) light curves dominated by a single pulse. The emission spectra of the early impulsive phase are consistent with an isothermal model in the coronal loop with a temperature reaching several keV. A power-law high-energy spectral tail is evident near the HXR peak time, in accordance with the appearance of footpoints at high energies, and is well correlated with the radio emission. The energy content of the thermal component keeps increasing gradually after the disappearance of this nonthermal component. These results suggest that electron acceleration only covers the central period of a longer and more gradual energy dissipation process and that the electron transport within the loop plays a crucial role in the formation of the inferred power-law electron distribution. The spectral index of power-law photons shows a very gradual evolution, indicating that the electron accelerator is in a quasi-steady state, which is confirmed by radio observations. These results are consistent with the theory of stochastic electron acceleration from a thermal background. Advanced modeling with coupled electron acceleration and spatial transport processes is needed to explain these observations more quantitatively, which may reveal the dependence of the electron acceleration on the spatial structure of the acceleration region.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimal white-noise stochastic forcing for linear models of turbulent channel flow

In the present study an optimisation problem is formulated to determine the forcing of an eddy-viscosity-based linearised Navier–Stokes model in channel flow at $Re_\tau \approx 5200$ ( $Re_\tau$ is the friction Reynolds number), where the forcing is white-in-time and spatially decorrelated. The objective functional is prescribed such that the forcing drives a response to best match a set of velocity spectra from direct numerical simulation (DNS), as well as remaining sufficiently smooth. Strong quantitative agreement is obtained between the velocity spectra from the linear model with optimal forcing and from DNS, but only qualitative agreement between the Reynolds shear stress co-spectra from the model and DNS. The forcing spectra exhibit a level of self-similarity, associated with the primary peak in the velocity spectra, but they also reveal a non-negligible amount of energy spent in phenomenologically mimicking the non-self-similar part of the velocity spectra associated with energy cascade. By exploiting linearity, the effect of the individual forcing components is assessed and the contributions from the Orr mechanism and the lift-up effect are also identified. Finally, the effect of the strength of the eddy viscosity on the optimisation performance is investigated. The inclusion of the eddy viscosity diffusion operator is shown to be essential in modelling of the near-wall features, while still allowing the forcing of the self-similar primary peak. In particular, reducing the strength of the eddy viscosity results in a considerable increase in the near-wall forcing of wall-parallel components.

Mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deep reinforcement learning control for co-optimizing energy consumption, thermal comfort, and indoor air quality in an office building

With the recent demand for decarbonization and energy efficiency, advanced HVAC control using Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) becomes a promising solution. Due to its flexible structures, DRL has been successful in energy reduction for many HVAC systems. However, only a few researches applied DRL agents to manage the entire central HVAC system and control multiple components in both the water loop and the air loop, owing to its complex system structures. Moreover, those researches have not extended their applications by incorporating the indoor air quality, especially both CO2 and PM2.5concentrations, on top of energy saving and thermal comfort, as achieving those objectives simultaneously can cause multiple control conflicts. What's more, DRL agents are usually trained on the simulation environment before deployment, so another challenge is to develop an accurate but relatively simple simulator. Therefore, we propose a DRL algorithm for a central HVAC system to co-optimize energy consumption, thermal comfort, indoor CO2 level, and indoor PM2.5 level in an office building. To train the controller, we also developed a hybrid simulator that decoupled the complex system into multiple simulation models, which are calibrated separately using laboratory test data. The hybrid simulator combined the dynamics of the HVAC system, the building envelope, as well as moisture, CO2, and particulate matter transfer. Three control algorithms (rule-based, MPC, and DRL) are developed, and their performances are evaluated on the hybrid simulator environment with a realistic scenario (i.e., with stochastic noises). The test results showed that, the DRL controller can save 21.4 % of energy compared to a rule-based controller, and has improved thermal comfort, reduced indoor CO2 concentration. The MPC controller showed an 18.6 % energy saving compared to the DRL controller, mainly due to savings from comfort and indoor air quality boundary violations caused by unmeasured disturbances, and it also highlights computational challenges in real-time control due to non-linear optimization. Finally, we provide the practical considerations for designing and implementing the DRL and MPC controllers based on their respective pros and cons.

Guo, Fangzhou↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine-learning-assisted high-temperature reservoir thermal energy storage optimization

High-temperature reservoir thermal energy storage (HT-RTES) has the potential to become an indispensable component in achieving the goal of the net-zero carbon economy, given its capability to balance the intermittent nature of renewable energy generation. In this study, a machine-learning-assisted computational framework is presented to co-optimize the performance metrics of HT-RTES by combining physics-based simulation with stochastic hydrogeologic formation and thermal energy storage operation parameters, artificial neural network regression of the simulation data, and genetic algorithm-enabled multi-objective optimization. A doublet well configuration with a layered (aquitard-aquifer-aquitard) generic reservoir is simulated for cases of continuous operation and seasonal-cycle operation scenarios. Further, neural network-based surrogate models are developed for the two scenarios and applied to generate the Pareto fronts of the HT-RTES performance for four potential HT-RTES sites. The developed Pareto optimal solutions indicate the performance of HT-RTES is operation-scenario (i.e., fluid cycle) and reservoir-site dependent, and the performance metrics have competing effects for a given site and a given fluid cycle. The developed neural network models can be applied to identify suitable sites for HT-RTES, and the proposed framework sheds light on the design of resilient HT-RTES systems.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unraveling Adsorbate-Induced Structural Evolution of Iron Carbide Nanoparticles

Iron carbide (Fe x C y ) nanoparticles (NPs) are promising candidates for replacing platinum group metals in industrial applications, such as high-temperature Fischer–Tropsch synthesis. However, due to their amorphous nature, characterization of the active sites has been challenging experimentally and computationally. Here, using a combined density functional theory (DFT), neural network interatomic potential-assisted global optimization, and ensemble learning study, we evaluate dynamic surface changes associated with syngas (H and CO) interactions. For this purpose, we have developed a general procedure that we use to model an experimentally relevant 270-atom Fe 182 C 88 NP using the neural network-assisted stochastic surface walk global optimization algorithm (SSW-NN). Once generated, the Fe 182 C 88 NP active sites and particle morphology are thoroughly characterized before the effects of syngas adsorbate interactions are explored by using DFT and molecular dynamics simulations. Lastly, we explore correlations between geometric and electronic features of the active sites and the adsorption of H (H ads ), using a regularized random forest machine learning algorithm. In doing so, we identified the Fe–C coordination number and p orbital occupancy as the most important descriptors affecting H ads . Furthermore, using a combined ML and quantum chemistry approach, our work demonstrates a general and efficient procedure for generating and probing complex surface phenomena on binary nanoparticles.

Adsorption↗
DOE OSTI2016

Non-adiabatic dynamics around a conical intersection with surface-hopping coupled coherent states

A surface-hopping extension of the coupled coherent states-method [D. Shalashilin and M. Child, Chem. Phys. 304, 103-120 (2004)] for simulating non-adiabatic dynamics with quantum effects of the nuclei is put forward. The time-dependent Schrödinger equation for the motion of the nuclei is solved in a moving basis set. The basis set is guided by classical trajectories, which can hop stochastically between different electronic potential energy surfaces. The non-adiabatic transitions are modelled by a modified version of Tully’s fewest switches algorithm. The trajectories consist of Gaussians in the phase space of the nuclei (coherent states) combined with amplitudes for an electronic wave function. The time-dependent matrix elements between different coherent states determine the amplitude of each trajectory in the total multistate wave function; the diagonal matrix elements determine the hopping probabilities and gradients. In this way, both interference effects and non-adiabatic transitions can be described in a very compact fashion, leading to the exact solution if convergence with respect to the number of trajectories is achieved and the potential energy surfaces are known globally. The method is tested on a 2D model for a conical intersection [A. Ferretti, J. Chem. Phys. 104, 5517 (1996)], where a nuclear wavepacket encircles the point of degeneracy between two potential energy surfaces and interferes with itself. These interference effects are absent in classical trajectory-based molecular dynamics but can be fully incorpo rated if trajectories are replaced by surface hopping coupled coherent states.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Model Predictive Fault-Tolerant Tracking Control for PDF Control Systems With Packet Losses

In this article, a fault-tolerant tracking control strategy is investigated for nonlinear probability density function (PDF) control systems with the actuator fault, uncertainties, unknown disturbance, and random packet losses. The control input signal dropout and measurement signal dropouts are described as the independent Bernoulli distribution. An adaptive fault diagnosis (FD) observer based on the Lyapunov function is given to simultaneously estimate the fault, disturbance, and state with packet losses. Furthermore, different from the traditional robust fault-tolerant control (FTC), a new active fault-tolerant tracking controller is designed based on the model predictive control framework, which has better adaptive fault-tolerant performance. Finally, the validity of the proposed FTC method has been proved by a simulation study of a papermaking process.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2010

Parallel Environment for the Creation of Stochastics 1.0

PECOS is a computational library for creating and manipulating realizations of stochastic quantities, including scalar uncertain variables, random fields, and stochastic processes. It offers a unified interface to univariate and multivariate polynomial approximations using either orthogonal or interpolation polynomials; numerical integration drivers for Latin hypercube sampling, quadrature, cubature, and sparse grids; and fast Fourier transforms using third party libraries. The PECOS core also offers statistical utilities and transformations between various representations of stochastic uncertainty. PECOS provides a C++ API through which users can generate and transform realizations of stochastic quantities. It is currently used by Sandia's DAKOTA, Stokhos, and Encore software packages for uncertainty quantification and verification. PECOS generates random sample sets and multi-dimensional integration grids, typically used in forward propagation of scalar uncertainty in computational models (uncertainty quantification (UQ)). PECOS also generates samples of random fields (RFs) and stochastic processes (SPs) from a set of user-defined power spectral densities (PSDs). The RF/SP may be either Gaussian or non-Gaussian and either stationary or nonstationary, and the resulting sample is intended for run-time query by parallel finite element simulation codes. Finally, PECOS supports nonlinear transformations of random variables via the Nataf transformation and extensions.

Field Jr, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2013

Spatial Stochastic Dynamics Enable Robust Cell Polarization

Although cell polarity is an essential feature of living cells, it is far from being well-understood. Using a combination of computational modeling and biological experiments we closely examine an important prototype of cell polarity: the pheromone-induced formation of the yeast polarisome. Focusing on the role of noise and spatial heterogeneity, we develop and investigate two mechanistic spatial models of polarisome formation, one deterministic and the other stochastic, and compare the contrasting predictions of these two models against experimental phenotypes of wild-type and mutant cells. We find that the stochastic model can more robustly reproduce two fundamental characteristics observed in wild-type cells: a highly polarized phenotype via a mechanism that we refer to as spatial stochastic amplification, and the ability of the polarisome to track a moving pheromone input. Moreover, we find that only the stochastic model can simultaneously reproduce these characteristics of the wild-type phenotype and the multi-polarisome phenotype of a deletion mutant of the scaffolding protein Spa2. Significantly, our analysis also demonstrates that higher levels of stochastic noise results in increased robustness of polarization to parameter variation. Furthermore, our work suggests a novel role for a polarisome protein in the stabilization of actin cables. These findings elucidate the intricate role of spatial stochastic effects in cell polarity, giving support to a cellular model where noise and spatial heterogeneity combine to achieve robust biological function.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermo-Mechanical Phase-Field Modeling of Fracture in High-Burnup UO2 Fuels Under Transient Conditions

This study presents a novel multiphysics phase-field fracture model to analyze high-burnup uranium dioxide (UO2) fuel behavior under transient reactor conditions. Fracture is treated as a stochastic phase transition, which inherently accounts for the random microstructural effects that lead to variations in the value of fracture strength. Moreover, the model takes into consideration the effects of temperature and burnup on thermal conductivity. Therefore, the model is able to predict crack initiation, propagation, and complex morphologies in response to thermal gradients and stress distributions. Several simulations were conducted to investigate the effects of operational and transient conditions on fracture behavior and the resulting cracking patterns. High-burnup fuels exhibit reduced thermal conductivity, elevating temperature gradients and resulting in extensive radial and circumferential cracks. Transient heating rates and temperatures significantly affect fracture patterns, with higher heating rates generating steeper gradients and more irregular crack trajectories. This approach provides critical insights into fuel integrity during accident scenarios and supports the safety evaluation of extended burnup limits.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2015

A framework for stochastic simulation of distribution practices for hotel reservations

The focus of this study is primarily on the Greek hotel industry. The objective is to design and develop a framework for stochastic simulation of reservation requests, reservation arrivals, cancellations and hotel occupancy with a planning horizon of a tourist season. In Greek hospitality industry there have been two competing policies for reservation planning process up to 2003: reservations coming directly from customers and a reservations management relying on tour operator(s). Recently the Internet along with other emerging technologies has offered the potential to disrupt enduring distribution arrangements. The focus of the study is on the choice of distribution intermediaries. We present an empirical model for the hotel reservation planning process that makes use of a symbolic simulation, Monte Carlo method, as, requests for reservations, cancellations, and arrival rates are all sources of uncertainty. We consider as a case study the problem of determining the optimal booking strategy for a medium size hotel in Skiathos Island, Greece. Probability distributions and parameters estimation result from the historical data available and by following suggestions made in the relevant literature. The results of this study may assist hotel managers define distribution strategies for hotel rooms and evaluate the performance of the reservations management system.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2015

Electron residual energy due to stochastic heating in field-ionized plasma

The electron residual energy originated from the stochastic heating in under-dense field-ionized plasma is investigated here. Initially, the optical response of plasma is modeled by using two counter-propagating electromagnetic waves. In this case, the solution of motion equation of a single electron indicates that by including the ionization, the electron with higher residual energy compared with that without ionization could be obtained. In agreement with chaotic nature of the motion, it is found that the electron residual energy will be significantly changed by applying a minor change in the initial conditions. Extensive kinetic 1D-3V particle-in-cell simulations have been performed in order to resolve full plasma reactions. In this way, two different regimes of plasma behavior are observed by varying the pulse length. The results indicate that the amplitude of scattered fields in a proper long pulse length is high enough to act as a second counter-propagating wave and trigger the stochastic electron motion. On the contrary, the analyses of intensity spectrum reveal the fact that the dominant scattering mechanism tends to Thomson rather than Raman scattering by increasing the pulse length. A covariant formalism is used to describe the plasma heating so that it enables us to measure electron temperature inside and outside of the pulse region.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fault isolation and fault-tolerant control for Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy time-varying delay stochastic distribution systems

A fault isolation, estimation, and fault-tolerant control (FTC) scheme for nonlinear time-varying delay stochastic distribution control systems was presented in this paper. The Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model was adopted to approach the nonlinear dynamics of time-varying delay systems. According to the output equivalence principle and Laplace transformation, an augmented state vector was given to solve the time-varying delay problem. When multiple actuator faults and interference occur simultaneously, fault detection, isolation and fault estimation was designed to obtained the fault information. To decouple faults and obtain the value and location information of the fault, the system was separated into two parts through the designed multiple conversion matrices, in which one subsystem was only affected by one actuator fault. This has simplified the design of fault isolation and estimation. A adaptive observer for fault estimation was given. Then, fault information such as the time, location, and size was determined. The observer gain matrices were calculated using linear matrix inequality (LMI). When a fault was detected and diagnosed, a FTC algorithm was devised using the proportional-integral control scheme to compensate the fault as much as possible. It has been shown that even if multiple faults actuator occurred simultaneously, the FTC controller still ensured the output probability density function of the system traced the desired probability density function when a fault occurred. Finally, the expected results were obtained through the simulation example, which confirmed the effectiveness of the method.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Machine‐Learning‐Assisted Stochastic Cloud Population Model as a Parameterization of Cumulus Convection

Abstract A machine‐learning‐assisted stochastic cloud population model is coupled with the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to represent fluctuations in the cloud‐base mass flux associated with the life cycles and interactions among cumulus convection cells. In this cloud population model, the size distribution and the associated cloud‐base mass flux of the convective cells are related to their previous state and to the change in the total convective area via a transition function. The convective area tendency in turn is assumed to depend on the cloud‐base mass flux that is resolved by the host WRF model. The transition function is represented by a single hidden‐layer neural network trained by the evolution of convective cell size distributions in a 1‐km grid‐spacing WRF simulation run over the Australian Monsoon region. At every grid point of the host model, the cloud population model predicts the cell size and cloud‐base mass flux distributions from which a random sample of cells is fed to an entraining parcel model that calculates precipitation as well as the associated liquid water potential temperature and total moisture tendencies. These tendencies are averaged over the cells and provided to the host model. Several regional simulations are performed over tropical and midlatitude domains to test this as a potential approach to scale‐aware parameterization. It is shown that such an approach could be a new promising path to simulating realistic precipitation statistics and propagation of precipitation associated with the Madden‐Julian Oscillation while maintaining realistic depictions of the diurnal cycle over both land and ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗