Results for “process simulation modeling” — Page 77

DOE OSTI2021

Meshfree simulation and experimental validation of extreme thermomechanical conditions in friction stir extrusion

Abstract Friction stir extrusion (FSE) is a novel solid-phase processing technique that consolidates and extrudes metal powders, flakes, chips, or billets into high-performance parts by plastic deformation, which has the potential to save substantial processing time and energy. Currently, most studies on FSE are experimental and only a few numerical models have been developed to explain and predict the complex physics of the process. In this work, a meshfree simulation framework based on smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) was developed for FSE. Unlike traditional grid-based methods, SPH is a Lagrangian particle-based method that can handle severe material deformations, capture moving interfaces and surfaces, and monitor the field variable histories explicitly without complicated tracking schemes. These aspects of SPH make it attractive for the FSE process, where in situ evolution of field variables is difficult to observe experimentally. To this end, a 3-D, fully thermomechanically coupled SPH model was developed to simulate the FSE of aluminum wires. The developed model was thoroughly validated by comparing the numerically predicted material flow, strain, temperature history, and extrusion force with experimental results for a certain set of process parameters. The validated SPH model can serve as an effective tool to predict and better understand the extreme thermomechanical conditions during the FSE process.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA NTRS2014

Using Discrete Event Simulation to Model Integrated Commodities Consumption for a Launch Campaign of the Space Launch System

In May 2013, NASA's GSDO Program requested a study to develop a discrete event simulation (DES) model that analyzes the launch campaign process of the Space Launch System (SLS) from an integrated commodities perspective. The scope of the study includes launch countdown and scrub turnaround and focuses on four core launch commodities: hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen, and helium. Previously, the commodities were only analyzed individually and deterministically for their launch support capability, but this study was the first to integrate them to examine the impact of their interactions on a launch campaign as well as the effects of process variability on commodity availability. The study produced a validated DES model with Rockwell Arena that showed that Kennedy Space Center's ground systems were capable of supporting a 48-hour scrub turnaround for the SLS. The model will be maintained and updated to provide commodity consumption analysis of future ground system and SLS configurations.

Commodities↗

DOE OSTI2018

Fluid Dynamics Effects on Microstructure Prediction in Single Laser Tracks for Additive Manufacturing

The Laser Powder Bed Fusion Additive Manufacturing (LPBFAM) is one of the most important processes for the production of lightweight, cost-effective, complex, and high-performance enduse parts. At present, the cost and time associated with LPBFAM process development is very high due to a lack of fundamental process understanding. In this project, a multi-physics model was developed on a highly parallel open-source code, Truchas, with the ultimate goal of providing experimentally validated process maps for tailoring microstructure to achieve desired performance for LPBFAM. As a critical step towards fully LPBFAM modeling, modeling of single-track laser fusion (STLF) were conducted. Multi-physics simulations were conducted using Truchas for STLF by considering heat transfer, phase-change, fluid dynamics, surface tension phenomena, and evaporation. In order to assess the effect of the fluid dynamics on the solidification and ensuing microstructure, a heat transfer-and-solidification-only (HTS) model and a fully coupled heat-transfer-solidification and fluid-dynamics (HTS-FD) model were considered. In the HTS_FD model, the fluid flow was considered to be laminar while the molten alloy surface is assumed to be flat and non-deformable. This study is one the first attempt to understand the effect of the fluid flow on microstructure in STLF and LPBFAM. The results show that the fluid flow affects the solidification and ensuing microstructure in STLF. In order to validate Truchas for STLF and LPBFAM modeling, experimental data, which was obtained at GE Global Research (GEGR) for liquid pool shape and microstructure, were compared with those from numerical simulation results. For the keyhole regime case, numerical simulation results indicate that the melt-pool shape was typical to that of the conduction case with very large deviations from the measured melt-pool depths. Two sensitivity studies were conducted by varying the evaporation flux and the surface tension coefficient at fixed laser absorptivities of 0.5 and 0.3, respectively. The minimum value for the overall combined error, between the calculated values with the HTS_FD model and measured values for both the width and height of the melt-pool, was attained for a surface tension coefficient of -0.75e-4 N/m. An analytical solidification model for the columnar-to-equiaxed transition (CET) in rapid solidification was used to assess the microstructure variation within the melt-pool. From numerical simulation results, thermal gradient, G, and solidification velocity, V, were obtained in order to predict the microstructure type (e.g., dendritic, cellular). For the fluid-flow HTS_FD model, G was found to exhibit a maximum at the extremity of the solidified pool (i.e., at the free surface). By contrast, for HTS simulations, G was found to exhibit a maximum around the entire edge of the solidified pool. For the HTS_FD simulations, the minimum values of the cooling rate, GV, were found to be approximately half than their corresponding values for HTS simulations. By contrast with the min GV values, the maximum values for GV were found to occur for the HTS_FD simulations. Thus, HTS_FD simulations were found to exhibit a wider range of cooling rates than the HTS simulations. Concerning the solidification maps, the variation of the solidification velocity, V, as function of the thermal gradient, G, was obtained. It was found that the fluid flow model results (HTS_FD) exhibited an increased spread in the V(G) variation within the melt pool with respect to the HTS model results (without the fluid flow). A preliminary correlation model for the primary dendrite arm spacing (PDAS) based on a power law dependence on thermal gradient and solidification velocity was used to estimate PDAS from HTS and HTS_FD simulations. For low laser powers and low laser speeds, the PDAS obtained 6 with the fluid dynamics model (HTS_FD) was larger by more than 30% with respect to the PDAS calculated with the simple HTS model. In the second part of the project, fifty-seven simulations were conducted in order to obtain data on microstructure variables that can be used for process map development. In order to cover the entire processing space, thirty-three cases were selected STLF process simulations at six power levels and six laser scanning speeds. The 57 STLF process simulations were conducted as follows: 33 simulations with the heat-transfer-only (HTS) model and 24 simulations with the fluid flow model (HTS_FD). The solidification map data shows that for all simulations, a columnar dendritic microstructure would be expected. It was found that the minimum, average, and maximum thermal gradient exhibit exponential variations with respect to a process variable defined as the ratio between the power and square root of scan speed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Advanced Fuels Campaign Execution Plan

The Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) Execution Plan outlines the strategy, mission, scope, near-term and long-term goals, structure, and organization associated with nuclear fuels and materials research, development, and demonstration activities within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Supply Chain (NFCSC) program. NFCSC has been given responsibility to identify and mature advanced fuel technologies for the DOE using a science-based approach, focused on developing a fundamental understanding of nuclear fuels and materials to drive development of integrated nuclear fuel and materials technology. This science-based approach combines theory, experiments, and multiscale modeling and simulation to achieve a predictive understanding of relevant behaviors ranging from fuel fabrication processes (and their resulting fuel microstructures) through fuel/cladding performance under irradiation (in contrast to more empirical, observation-based approaches frequently used in fuel performance modeling and fuel qualification). The traditional scope of AFC includes the evaluation and development of multiple fuel forms to support two fuel cycle options: once-through and full recycle. The word “fuel” is used generically to include conventional fuels, transmutation targets, and any associated cladding or duct materials. The once-through fuel cycle addresses advanced light water reactor fuels with enhanced performance, extended burnup, and reduced waste generation. In fiscal year (FY) 2012, AFC’s scope expanded to include research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) for light water reactor (LWR) fuels with enhanced accident tolerance. Fuel fabrication activities include the development of innovative methods to enhance process efficiencies, reduce waste, and improve control over as-fabricated fuel microstructural properties to achieve desired in-reactor performance. Using modern modeling and simulation approaches, the objective is to predict fresh fuel properties given the feedstock characteristics and fabrication process parameters. The performance-related activities include small-scale, in-reactor, and out-of-reactor phenomenological testing (distinct from, but synergistic with, integral prototypic testing) and extensive, quantitative characterization (focusing on characterization of fuel and cladding materials at the scale of microstructure) both before and after testing. Larger-scale, prototypic experiments are conducted in concert with phenomenological testing to drive a Fuel Development and Qualification program, incorporating a fundamental understanding of fuel behavior performance characteristics. Then, using the tools developed under the productive science-based approach, fuels will be optimized to meet specific performance requirements, thereby minimizing the need to repeatedly perform large-scale, integral experiments over a wide parametric range as a means of experimental exploration. Two significant initiatives are underway within AFC. First, a gap analysis completed in early FY 2019 identified critical irradiation testing needs that are lacking within the national light water reactor (LWR) fuels testbed since the shutdown of the Halden Reactor in 2018. The identified gaps are for instrumented, prototypic testing of LWR fuels, especially under boiling water reactor conditions, ramp conditions, and conditions leading to fuel failure; these needs exist for supporting current LWR fuels and their possible extension to higher burnups, but are especially urgent relative to near-term development and qualification of accident-tolerant fuels. Recommendations that resulted from the Halden Gap Analysis focused on enhancements at Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) and Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) to fill gaps in testing capabilities relative to these needs. Second, a concerted effort to develop and demonstrate a systematic approach to accelerating the development, testing, and qualification of new fuel systems has been initiated. This is highlighted by a test strategy that combines the considerable advances in multiscale, mechanistic fuel modeling of recent years with a MiniFuel separate effects test program in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) and a Fission Accelerated Steady-state Testing (FAST) semi-integral accelerated test program in ATR. This approach is being tested/demonstrated using the metallic fuel system, but if successful it is expected to be extensible to multiple fuel types and diverse applications. This document includes an overview of the NFCSC program, a definition of science-based development of nuclear fuels, near-term goals for Advanced LWR fuels (ALFs), and longer-term goals for Advanced Reactor Fuels (ARFs) RD&D. This includes the activities that will be conducted to achieve success toward the grand challenge, as well as the goals and milestones to be achieved over the next few decades of research and development. Long-term goals are based on the DOE Office of Nuclear Energ

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Fuels Campaign Execution Plan

The Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) Execution Plan outlines the strategy, mission, scope, near-term and long-term goals, structure, and organization associated with nuclear fuels and materials research, development, and demonstration activities within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Supply Chain (NFCSC) program. NFCSC has been given responsibility to identify and mature advanced fuel technologies for the DOE using a science-based approach, focused on developing a fundamental understanding of nuclear fuels and materials to drive development of integrated nuclear fuel and materials technology. This science-based approach combines theory, experiments, and multiscale modeling and simulation to achieve a predictive understanding of relevant behaviors ranging from fuel fabrication processes (and their resulting fuel microstructures) through fuel/cladding performance under irradiation (in contrast to more empirical, observation-based approaches frequently used in fuel performance modeling and fuel qualification). The traditional scope of AFC includes the evaluation and development of multiple fuel forms to support two fuel cycle options: once-through and full recycle. The word “fuel” is used generically to include conventional fuels, transmutation targets, and any associated cladding or duct materials. The once-through fuel cycle addresses advanced light water reactor fuels with enhanced performance, extended burnup, and reduced waste generation. In fiscal year (FY) 2012, AFC’s scope expanded to include research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) for light water reactor (LWR) fuels with enhanced accident tolerance. Fuel fabrication activities include the development of innovative methods to enhance process efficiencies, reduce waste, and improve control over as-fabricated fuel microstructural properties to achieve desired in-reactor performance. Using modern modeling and simulation approaches, the objective is to predict fresh fuel properties given the feedstock characteristics and fabrication process parameters. The performance-related activities include small-scale, in-reactor, and out-of-reactor phenomenological testing (distinct from, but synergistic with, integral prototypic testing) and extensive, quantitative characterization (focusing on characterization of fuel and cladding materials at the scale of microstructure) both before and after testing. Larger-scale, prototypic experiments are conducted in concert with phenomenological testing to drive a Fuel Development and Qualification program, incorporating a fundamental understanding of fuel behavior performance characteristics. Then, using the tools developed under the productive science-based approach, fuels will be optimized to meet specific performance requirements, thereby minimizing the need to repeatedly perform large-scale, integral experiments over a wide parametric range as a means of experimental exploration. Two significant initiatives are underway within AFC. First, a gap analysis completed in early FY 2019 identified critical irradiation testing needs that are lacking within the national light water reactor (LWR) fuels testbed since the shutdown of the Halden Reactor in 2018. The identified gaps are for instrumented, prototypic testing of LWR fuels, especially under boiling water reactor conditions, ramp conditions, and conditions leading to fuel failure; these needs exist for supporting current LWR fuels and their possible extension to higher burnups, but are especially urgent relative to near-term development and qualification of accident-tolerant fuels. Recommendations that resulted from the Halden Gap Analysis focused on enhancements at Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) and Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) to fill gaps in testing capabilities relative to these needs. Second, a concerted effort to develop and demonstrate a systematic approach to accelerating the development, testing, and qualification of new fuel systems has been initiated. This is highlighted by a test strategy that combines the considerable advances in multiscale, mechanistic fuel modeling of recent years with a MiniFuel separate effects test program in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) and a Fission Accelerated Steady-state Testing (FAST) semi-integral accelerated test program in ATR. This approach is being tested/demonstrated using the metallic fuel system, but if successful it is expected to be extensible to multiple fuel types and diverse applications. This document includes an overview of the NFCSC program, a definition of science-based development of nuclear fuels, near-term goals for Advanced LWR fuels (ALFs), and longer-term goals for Advanced Reactor Fuels (ARFs) RD&D. This includes the activities that will be conducted to achieve success toward the grand challenge, as well as the goals and milestones to be achieved over the next few decades of research and development. Long-term goals are based on the DOE Office of Nuclear Energ

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Building a machine learning surrogate model for wildfire activities within a global Earth system model

Abstract. Wildfire is an important ecosystem process, influencing land biogeophysical and biogeochemical dynamics and atmospheric composition. Fire-driven loss of vegetation cover, for example, directly modifies the surface energy budget as a consequence of changing albedo, surface roughness, and partitioning of sensible and latent heat fluxes. Carbon dioxide and methane emitted by fires contribute to a positive atmospheric forcing, whereas emissions of carbonaceous aerosols may contribute to surface cooling. Process-based modeling of wildfires in Earth system land models is challenging due to limited understanding of human, climate, and ecosystem controls on fire counts, fire size, and burned area. Integration of mechanistic wildfire models within Earth system models requires careful parameter calibration, which is computationally expensive and subject to equifinality. To explore alternative approaches, we present a deep neural network (DNN) scheme that surrogates the process-based wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) interface. The DNN wildfire model accurately simulates observed burned area with over 90 % higher accuracy with a large reduction in parameterization time compared with the current process-based wildfire model. The surrogate wildfire model successfully captured the observed monthly regional burned area during validation period 2011 to 2015 (coefficient of determination, R2=0.93). Since the DNN wildfire model has the same input and output requirements as the E3SM process-based wildfire model, our results demonstrate the applicability of machine learning for high accuracy and efficient large-scale land model development and predictions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1988

Markov chains for testing redundant software

A preliminary design for a validation experiment has been developed that addresses several problems unique to assuring the extremely high quality of multiple-version programs in process-control software. The procedure uses Markov chains to model the error states of the multiple version programs. The programs are observed during simulated process-control testing, and estimates are obtained for the transition probabilities between the states of the Markov chain. The experimental Markov chain model is then expanded into a reliability model that takes into account the inertia of the system being controlled. The reliability of the multiple version software is computed from this reliability model at a given confidence level using confidence intervals obtained for the transition probabilities during the experiment. An example demonstrating the method is provided.

White, Allan L.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Numerical Modeling and Dynamic Analysis of a Wave-Powered Reverse-Osmosis System

A wave energy converter (WEC) system has the potential to convert the wave energy resource directly into the high-pressure flow that is needed by the desalination system to pump saltwater to the reverse-osmosis membrane and provide the required pressure level to generate freshwater. In this study, a wave-to-water numerical model was developed to investigate the potential use of a wave-powered desalination system (WPDS) for water production. The model was developed by coupling a time-domain radiation-and-diffraction method-based numerical tool (WEC-Sim) for predicting the hydrodynamic performance of WECs with a solution-diffusion model that was used to simulate the reverse-osmosis (RO) process. The objective of this research is to evaluate the WPDS dynamics and the overall efficiency of the system. To evaluate the feasibility of the WPDS, the wave-to-water numerical model was applied to simulate a desalination system that used an oscillating surge WEC device to pump seawater through the system. The hydrodynamics WEC-Sim simulation results for the oscillating surge WEC device were validated against existing experimental data. The RO simulation was verified by comparing the results to those from the Dow Chemical Company’s reverse osmosis system analysis (ROSA) model, which has been widely used to design and simulate RO systems. The wave-to-water model was then used to analyze the WPDS under a range of wave conditions and for a two-WECs-coupled RO system to evaluate the influence of pressure and flow rate fluctuation on the WPDS performance. The results show that the instantaneous energy fluctuation from waves has a significant influence on the responding hydraulic pressure and flow rate, as well as the recovery ratio and, ultimately, the water-production quality. Nevertheless, it is possible to reduce the hydraulic fluctuation for different sea states while maintaining a certain level of freshwater production, and a WEC array that produces water can be a viable, near-term solution to the nation’s water supply. A discussion on the dynamic impact of hydraulic fluctuation on the WPDS performance and potential options to reduce the fluctuation and their trade-offs is also presented.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2025

Perspectives on Systematic Cloud Microphysics Scheme Development With Machine Learning

Cloud microphysics—the collection of processes that govern the small‐scale formation, evolution, and interactions of liquid droplets and ice crystals in clouds and precipitation—remains a major source of uncertainty in weather and climate models. Although too small in scale to be explicitly resolved in any large‐eddy simulation, weather, or climate model, the representation of cloud microphysical processes has significant impact at the climate scale. Current microphysical schemes are limited by both parametric uncertainty, linked to uncertainty in physical parameter values, and structural uncertainty, arising from incomplete physical understanding of the processes at play or approximations made for computational efficiency. Recent advances in the application of machine learning (ML) to the physical sciences show significant potential for minimizing these limitations by leveraging high‐fidelity simulations and observations. Here we outline the challenges that must be addressed to apply ML toward cloud microphysics scheme development. This perspectives paper synthesizes recent progress in using data‐driven methods, including ML, to improve cloud microphysics parameterizations and highlights opportunities to address key uncertainties. We discuss the roles of aleatoric (irreducible, or statistical) and epistemic (reducible, or systematic) errors in contributing to microphysics parameterization uncertainty. ML can leverage observations to improve microphysical schemes via bottom‐up and top‐down constraints. Methods such as differentiable programming and ML‐enhanced sampling strategies and the creation of large scale benchmark data sets promise to bridge the gap between observations and models and to improve the consistency of cloud microphysical representation across temporal and spatial scales.

Lamb, Kara D. [Columbia Univ., New York, NY (Unite↗

DOE OSTI2020

Stone Content Influence on Land Surface Model Simulation of Soil Moisture and Evapotranspiration at Reynolds Creek Watershed

Considerable advancement in spatiotemporal resolution of remote sensing and ground-based measurements has enabled refinement of parameters used in land surface models for simulating surface water fluxes. However, land surface modeling capabilities are still inadequate for accurate representation of subsurface properties and processes, which continue to limit the accuracy of land surface model simulation. Our objective in this study was to examine the performance of the variously parameterized Noah-Multiphysics (Noah-MP) land surface model and to improve simulations of evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture dynamics in stony soils using verification from eddy covariance ET and in-situ soil moisture data. Meteorological and eddy covariance data from the Lower Sheep sub-catchment within the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed in Southwestern Idaho were employed to drive Noah-MP and to assess simulation results. We evaluated the performance of Noah-MP considering four different scenarios: (1) A one-layer soil profile with Noah-MP default soil hydraulic parameters, followed by five-layer soil profiles using -(2) Noah-MP default soil hydraulic parameters -(3) soil hydraulic parameters derived from a pedotransfer function using field observations, and -(4) hydraulic parameters from (3) which also accounted for stone content in each layer. Each modeling experiment was forced with the same set of initial conditions, atmospheric input and vegetation parameters. Our results indicated that enhanced representation of soil profile properties and stone content information noticeably improve the Noah-MP land surface model simulation of soil moisture content and evapotranspiration.

Land surface models, Soil hydrology, Noah-MP, Evap↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hybrid Large Eddy Simulation/Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes Analysis of a Premixed Ethylene-Fueled Dual-Mode Scramjet Combustor

Hydrocarbon fuels offer optimal high energy per volume for scramjet applications for sustained hypersonic flight but require additional residence time due to slower ignition delays (compared with hydrogen fuel). The injection of ethylene at the start of the isolator of a dual-mode scramjet combustor, operating in ramjet mode, allows sufficient mixing to achieve efficient premixed turbulent combustion. A cavity flameholder anchors the flame, supplying sufficient radicals to sustain a stable flame in the high-speed environment. This work investigates flame structure and stabilization limits of a new configuration with a scaled-down cavity embedded in the flow path of the combustor with a strut and insert. The cavity is reduced in size by one-third to enable eventual direct numerical simulations of the flame stabilization process. This work, however, focuses on modeling the full isolator/combustor geometry using a hybrid large eddy simulation/Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes simulation strategy. Additionally, particle image velocimetry, planar laser-induced fluorescence, coherent anti-Stokes Raman spectroscopy, and pressure measurements are compared with numerical predictions to analyze and characterize the conditions within the combustor, including flame structure, flow velocities, species composition, and wall pressure. An adjustable air throttle in the extender is able to control the placement of the shock train in the isolator and maintain a stable flame at various equivalence ratios. The simulations show reasonably good agreement with the experimental scalar and velocity data and predict a flame angle consistent with premixed turbulent flame-speed correlations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2008

Comparison Between Numerically Simulated and Experimentally Measured Flowfield Quantities Behind a Pulsejet

Pulsed combustion is receiving renewed interest as a potential route to higher performance in air breathing propulsion systems. Pulsejets offer a simple experimental device with which to study unsteady combustion phenomena and validate simulations. Previous computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulation work focused primarily on the pulsejet combustion and exhaust processes. This paper describes a new inlet sub-model which simulates the fluidic and mechanical operation of a valved pulsejet head. The governing equations for this sub-model are described. Sub-model validation is provided through comparisons of simulated and experimentally measured reed valve motion, and time averaged inlet mass flow rate. The updated pulsejet simulation, with the inlet sub-model implemented, is validated through comparison with experimentally measured combustion chamber pressure, inlet mass flow rate, operational frequency, and thrust. Additionally, the simulated pulsejet exhaust flowfield, which is dominated by a starting vortex ring, is compared with particle imaging velocimetry (PIV) measurements on the bases of velocity, vorticity, and vortex location. The results show good agreement between simulated and experimental data. The inlet sub-model is shown to be critical for the successful modeling of pulsejet operation. This sub-model correctly predicts both the inlet mass flow rate and its phase relationship with the combustion chamber pressure. As a result, the predicted pulsejet thrust agrees very well with experimental data.

Geng, Tao↗

DOE OSTI2016

Comparison of observed and simulated spatial patterns of ice microphysical processes in tropical oceanic mesoscale convective systems

To equitably compare the spatial pattern of ice microphysical processes produced by three microphysical parameterizations with each other, observations, and theory, simulations of tropical oceanic mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were forced to develop the same mesoscale circulations as observations by assimilating radial velocity data from a Doppler radar. The same general layering of microphysical processes was found in observations and simulations with deposition anywhere above the 0°C level, aggregation at and above the 0°C level, melting at and below the 0°C level, and riming near the 0°C level. Thus, this study is consistent with the layered ice microphysical pattern portrayed in previous conceptual models and indicated by dual-polarization radar data. Spatial variability of riming in the simulations suggests that riming in the midlevel inflow is related to convective-scale vertical velocity perturbations. Lastly, this study sheds light on limitations of current generally available bulk microphysical parameterizations. In each parameterization, the layers in which aggregation and riming took place were generally too thick and the frequency of riming was generally too high compared to the observations and theory. Additionally, none of the parameterizations produced similar details in every microphysical spatial pattern. Discrepancies in the patterns of microphysical processes between parameterizations likely factor into creating substantial differences in model reflectivity patterns. It is concluded that improved parameterizations of ice-phase microphysics will be essential to obtain reliable, consistent model simulations of tropical oceanic MCSs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Understanding Microstructural Evolution During Rapid Heat Treatment of Microalloyed Steels Through Computational Modeling, Advanced Physical Simulation, and Multiscale Characterization Techniques

An AISI 1045 steel modified with vanadium (V) and niobium (Nb) was studied to evaluate microstructural conditioning prior to and throughout a rapid heat treat process. In order to accomplish this, both computational and physical simulation techniques have been employed with the goal of assessing the microstructural evolution in a medium-carbon bar steel during the rapid austenitization and quenching procedures involved in an induction hardening process. The appropriate thermal profiles for induction hardening were obtained through finite element modeling using Flux 2D software. Physical simulations of the induction hardening process were carried out using a Gleeble{sup ®} 3500. Analysis of prior austenite grain size is complemented by observation of nanoscale carbonitride precipitation via transmission electron microscopy, scanning transmission electron microscopy, and high-energy synchrotron small-angle x-ray scattering. Through a combination of characterization techniques, this study presents a deeper understanding of nano- and microstructural changes occurring in a microalloyed steel during an induction hardening process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2015

Simplified predictive models for CO 2 sequestration performance assessment

CO2 sequestration in deep saline formations is increasingly being considered as a viable strategy for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from anthropogenic sources. In this context, detailed numerical simulation based models are routinely used to understand key processes and parameters affecting pressure propagation and buoyant plume migration following CO2 injection into the subsurface. As these models are data and computation intensive, the development of computationally-efficient alternatives to conventional numerical simulators has become an active area of research. Such simplified models can be valuable assets during preliminary CO2 injection project screening, serve as a key element of probabilistic system assessment modeling tools, and assist regulators in quickly evaluating geological storage projects. We present three strategies for the development and validation of simplified modeling approaches for CO2 sequestration in deep saline formations: (1) simplified physics-based modeling, (2) statisticallearning based modeling, and (3) reduced-order method based modeling. In the first category, a set of full-physics compositional simulations is used to develop correlations for dimensionless injectivity as a function of the slope of the CO2 fractional-flow curve, variance of layer permeability values, and the nature of vertical permeability arrangement. The same variables, along with a modified gravity number, can be used to develop a correlation for the total storage efficiency within the CO2 plume footprint. Furthermore, the dimensionless average pressure buildup after the onset of boundary effects can be correlated to dimensionless time, CO2 plume footprint, and storativity contrast between the reservoir and caprock. In the second category, statistical “proxy models” are developed using the simulation domain described previously with two approaches: (a) classical Box-Behnken experimental design with a quadratic response surface, and (b) maximin Latin Hypercube sampling (LHS) based design with a multidimensional kriging metamodel fit. For roughly the same number of simulations, the LHS-based metamodel yields a more robust predictive model, as verified by a k-fold cross-validation approach (with data split into training and test sets) as well by validation with an independent dataset. In the third category, a reduced-order modeling procedure is utilized that combines proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) for reducing problem dimensionality with trajectory-piecewise linearization (TPWL) in order to represent system response at new control settings from a limited number of training runs. Significant savings in computational time are observed with reasonable accuracy from the PODTPWL reduced-order model for both vertical and horizontal well problems – which could be important in the context of history matching, uncertainty quantification and optimization problems. The simplified physics and statistical learning based models are also validated using an uncertainty analysis framework. Reference cumulative distribution functions of key model outcomes (i.e., plume radius and reservoir pressure buildup) generated using a 97-run full-physics simulation are successfully validated against the CDF from 10,000 sample probabilistic simulations using the simplified models. The main contribution of this research project is the development and validation of a portfolio of simplified modeling approaches that will enable rapid feasibility and risk assessment for CO2 sequestration in deep saline formations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1994

Dynamic Simulation of a Periodic 10 K Sorption Cryocooler

A transient thermal simulation model has been developed to simulate the dynamic performance of a multiple-stage 10 K sorption cryocooler for spacecraft sensor cooling applications that require periodic quick-cooldown (under 2 minutes) , negligible vibration, low power consumption, and long life (5 to 10 years). The model was specifically designed to represent the Brilliant Eyes Ten-Kelvin Sorption Cryocooler Experiment (BETSCE), but it can be adapted to represent other sorption cryocooler systems as well. The model simulates the heat transfer, mass transfer, and thermodynamic processes in the cryostat and the sorbent beds for the entire refrigeration cycle, and includes the transient effects of variable hydrogen supply pressures due to expansion and overflow of hydrogen during the cooldown operation. The paper describes model limitations and simplifying assumptions, with estimates of errors induced by them, and presents comparisons of performance predictions with ground experiments. An important benefit of the model is its ability to predict performance sensitivities to variations of key design and operational parameters. The insights thus obtained are expected to lead to higher efficiencies and lower weights for future designs.

cryocooler design performance sorption simulation ↗

DOE OSTI2016

An overview of uncertainty quantification techniques with application to oceanic and oil‐spill simulations

Abstract We give an overview of four different ensemble‐based techniques for uncertainty quantification and illustrate their application in the context of oil plume simulations. These techniques share the common paradigm of constructing a model proxy that efficiently captures the functional dependence of the model output on uncertain model inputs. This proxy is then used to explore the space of uncertain inputs using a large number of samples, so that reliable estimates of the model's output statistics can be calculated. Three of these techniques use polynomial chaos (PC) expansions to construct the model proxy, but they differ in their approach to determining the expansions' coefficients; the fourth technique uses Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). An integral plume model for simulating the Deepwater Horizon oil‐gas blowout provides examples for illustrating the different techniques. A Monte Carlo ensemble of 50,000 model simulations is used for gauging the performance of the different proxies. The examples illustrate how regression‐based techniques can outperform projection‐based techniques when the model output is noisy. They also demonstrate that robust uncertainty analysis can be performed at a fraction of the cost of the Monte Carlo calculation.

Iskandarani, Mohamed↗

DOE OSTI2016

Toward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models

Soil carbon (C) is a critical component of Earth system models (ESMs), and its diverse representations are a major source of the large spread across models in the terrestrial C sink from the third to fifth assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Improving soil C projections is of a high priority for Earth system modeling in the future IPCC and other assessments. To achieve this goal, we suggest that (1) model structures should reflect real-world processes, (2) parameters should be calibrated to match model outputs with observations, and (3) external forcing variables should accurately prescribe the environmental conditions that soils experience. First, most soil C cycle models simulate C input from litter production and C release through decomposition. The latter process has traditionally been represented by first-order decay functions, regulated primarily by temperature, moisture, litter quality, and soil texture. While this formulation well captures macroscopic soil organic C (SOC) dynamics, better understanding is needed of their underlying mechanisms as related to microbial processes, depth-dependent environmental controls, and other processes that strongly affect soil C dynamics. Second, incomplete use of observations in model parameterization is a major cause of bias in soil C projections from ESMs. Optimal parameter calibration with both pool-and flux-based data sets through data assimilation is among the highest priorities for near-term research to reduce biases among ESMs. Third, external variables are represented inconsistently among ESMs, leading to differences in modeled soil C dynamics. Furthermore, we recommend the implementation of traceability analyses to identify how external variables and model parameterizations influence SOC dynamics in different ESMs. Overall, projections of the terrestrial C sink can be substantially improved when reliable data sets are available to select the most representative model structure, constrain parameters, and prescribe forcing fields.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗