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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

TEAMER - AquaHarmonics High Fidelity WEC Sim PTO and Control Model Validation, Test Logs and Results

Collaborative effort between AquaHarmonics, Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to revise and validate Aquaharmonics' full wave to wire model, allowing for reduced uncertainty and increased understanding of design requirements of a utility scale wave energy converter (WEC). SNL and NREL in collaboration with AquaHarmonics, will set up and run WEC Simulator (WEC-Sim) models of the AquaHarmonics WEC, building off past model developments for inclusion of custom PTO (power take-off) dynamics. The intent is to review, update, and verify or validate a new WEC-Sim model against wave tank experimental data. Furthermore, the WEC-Sim model will be coupled to an energy storage system model to better understand the wave-to-wire functionality. This data set is described in the "Test Log" excel file. Please refer to that document for details on each specific test date/time, constraint parameters and model hardware setup details. Sim model can be found in the associated MHKDR link below.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2016

Modeling and Depletion Simulations for a High Flux Isotope Reactor Cycle with a Representative Experiment Loading

The purpose of this report is to document a high-fidelity VESTA/MCNP High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) core model that features a new, representative experiment loading. This model, which represents the current, high-enriched uranium fuel core, will serve as a reference for low-enriched uranium conversion studies, safety-basis calculations, and other research activities. A new experiment loading model was developed to better represent current, typical experiment loadings, in comparison to the experiment loading included in the model for Cycle 400 (operated in 2004). The new experiment loading model for the flux trap target region includes full length 252 Cf production targets, 75 Se production capsules, 63 Ni production capsules, a 188 W production capsule, and various materials irradiation targets. Fully loaded 238 Pu production targets are modeled in eleven vertical experiment facilities located in the beryllium reflector. Other changes compared to the Cycle 400 model are the high-fidelity modeling of the fuel element side plates and the material composition of the control elements. Results obtained from the depletion simulations with the new model are presented, with a focus on time-dependent isotopic composition of irradiated fuel and single cycle isotope production metrics.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Kinetic modeling of ignition in miniature shock tube

The ignition delay times of toluene, n-heptane/iso-octane primary reference fuel blends, and toluene/n-heptane/iso-octane toluene primary reference fuel blends were studied in the miniature high repetition rate shock tube (HRRST). In the HRRST, the temperature and pressure change during the test time, complicating interpretation of ignition delay times. Two methods of chemical kinetic modeling were employed in order to account for the changing thermodynamic states in the HRRST. One was based on direct modeling using the pressure profile and the kinetic mechanism, and the other was based on a Livengood-Wu type approach using modeled constant volume ignition delay times. Two different kinetic mechanisms were used in modeling the data. Both methods showed agreement with experimental data over a range of temperatures, pressures, and blends. While overall agreement was fair, agreement was poorer for one of the mechanisms for the primary reference fuel blends. An evaluation of the ignition delay iso-contours from these mechanisms for representative HRRST experiment thermodynamic trajectories revealed that the HRRST measured IDTs are controlled by the high temperature chemistry and are more sensitive to temperature. Furthermore, the different performance of mechanisms is therefore attributed to their different high temperature reactivity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Quantum Chaos through Microcanonical Distributions of Entanglement

A characteristic feature of “quantum chaotic” systems is that their eigenspectra and eigenstates display universal statistical properties described by random matrix theory (RMT). However, eigenstates of local systems also encode structure beyond RMT. To capture this feature, we introduce a framework that allows us to compare the properties of eigenstates in local systems with those of pure random states. In particular, our framework defines a notion of distance between quantum state ensembles that utilizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence to compare the microcanonical distribution of entanglement entropy (EE) of eigenstates with a reference RMT distribution generated by pure random states (with appropriate constraints). This notion gives rise to a quantitative metric for quantum chaos that not only accounts for averages of the distributions but also higher moments. The differences in moments are compared on a highly resolved scale set by the standard deviation of the RMT distribution, which is exponentially small in system size. As a result, the metric can distinguish between chaotic and integrable behaviors and, in addition, quantify and compare the of chaos (in terms of proximity to RMT behavior) between two systems that are assumed to be chaotic. We implement our framework in local, minimally structured, Floquet random circuits, as well as a canonical family of many-body Hamiltonians, the mixed-field Ising model (MFIM). Importantly, for Hamiltonian systems, we find that the reference random distribution must be appropriately constrained to incorporate the effect of energy conservation in order to describe the ensemble properties of midspectrum eigenstates. The metric captures deviations from RMT across all models and parameters, including those that have been previously identified as strongly chaotic, and for which other diagnostics of chaos such as level spacing statistics look strongly thermal. In Floquet circuits, the dominant source of deviations is the second moment of the distribution, and this persists for all system sizes. For the MFIM, we find significant variation of the KL divergence in parameter space. Notably, we find a small region where deviations from RMT are minimized, suggesting that “maximally chaotic” Hamiltonians may exist in fine-tuned pockets of parameter space. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Physics↗
DOE OSTI2018

Continuation Report: Creep-fatigue Behavior and Damage Accumulation of a Candidate Structural Material for Concentrating Solar Thermal Receiver

At the start of this phase, six alloys were determined to be candidate materials for the concentrating solar power (CSP) thermal receiver: Alloys 617, 625, 740H, 230, 282 and Alloy X. From these, Alloys 740H and 282 were determined to be the most suitable, with both alloys exhibiting similar high temperature strength properties. Alloy 740H was selected due to its ease to work with (simpler heat treatments and welding procedures) and a larger database of existing data. Fatigue testing was started in this phase, with four fatigue tests having been completed, with additional fatigue testing planned, as well as tensile, creep and creep-fatigue tests starting in the next phase. Two fatigue tests performed at 850 °C and were completed in significantly fewer cycles than the two tests performed at 750 °C. Metallography was performed on the fatigued specimens to examine crack path and surrounding microstructure. These preliminary results suggest a significant drop in strength at elevated temperatures above 750 °C, however, more test results will be needed prior to setting design limits. Several potential model high temperature design methods were evaluated that could form the basis of our final recommended creep-fatigue design method for Alloy 740H. To do this we expanded on the receiver finite element model to develop a model representative of a potential Gen 3 design using KCl-MgCl2 salt coolant and operating with a salt inlet temperature of 550°C and salt outlet temperature of 720°C. Using the temperature fields from the model thermohydraulic analysis we determined the design life of the reference receiver assuming it was constructed from 740H seamless tubing and assuming high temperature design properties for 740H from literature data and, where required, naïve extrapolation. As experimental data is generated, these tentative design parameters will be updated to match the actual performance of 740H in elevated temperature service. The results of this design study are a rank ordering of potential design methods for two criteria: ease of use and design margin. The end goal of this project is to develop a creep-fatigue design method with adequate, but not over conservative, design margin that is straightforward to execute. Our receiver model is based on the preliminary design provided to DOE by Solar Reserve. Our analysis indicates a peak metal temperature of around 840° C for this design (comparable to Solar Reserve’s analysis, which shows a peak metal temperature of around 830° C). The Solar Reserve tube thickness is too thin to sustain creep-fatigue loading at this temperature. This means that the current trial design is not well-suited for evaluating different design methodologies, as we predict it will have a very short design life. We suggest that we modify our reference design with input from DOE in order to lower the maximum metal temperature to less than 800° C. We can then repeat these analyses and give a more meaningful comparison of different design methods before making a final selection.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Evaluation of Used Fuel Disposition in Clay-Bearing Rock

Deep geological disposal of nuclear waste in clay/shale/argillaceous rock formations has received much consideration given its desirable attributes such as isolation properties (low permeability), geochemically reduced conditions, slow diffusion, sorbtive mineralogy, and geologically widespread (Jové Colón et al., 2014). There is a wealth of gained scientific expertise on the behavior of clay/shale/ argillaceous rock given its focus in international nuclear waste repository programs that includes underground research laboratories (URLs) in Switzerland, France, Belgium, and Japan. Jové Colón et al. (2014) have described some of these investigative efforts in clay rock ranging from site characterization to research on the engineered barrier system (EBS). Evaluations of disposal options that include nuclear waste disposition in clay/shale/argillaceous rock have determined that this host media can accommodate a wide range of waste types. R&D work within the Used Fuel Disposition Campaign (UFDC) assessing thermal effects and fluid-mineral interactions for the disposition of heat-generating waste have so far demonstrated the feasibility for the EBS and clay host rock to withstand high thermal loads. This report represents the continuation of disposal R&D efforts on the advancement and refinement of coupled Thermal-Hydrological-Mechanical-Chemical (THMC), hydrothermal experiments on clay interactions, used fuel degradation (source term), and thermodynamic modeling and database development. The development and implementation of a clay/shale/argillite reference case described in Jové Colón et al. (2014) for FY15 will be documented in another report (Mariner et al. 2015) – only a brief description will be given here. This clay reference case implementation is the result of integration efforts between the GDSA PA and disposal in argillite work packages. The assessment of sacrificial zones in the EBS is being addressed through experimental work along with 1D reactive-transport and reaction path modeling. The focus of these investigations into the nature of sacrificial zones is to evaluate the chemical effects of heterogeneous chemical reactions at EBS interfaces. The difference in barrier material types and the extent of chemical reactions within these interfacial domains generates changes in mineral abundances. These mineralogical alterations also result in volume changes that, although small, could affect the interface bulk porosity. As in previous deliverables, this report is structured according to various national laboratory contributions describing R&D activities applicable to clay/shale/argillite media.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2015

NETL Fischer-Tropsch Black Box Model

The purpose of the Fischer-Tropsch (F-T) Black Box Model is to allow for the screening of the impacts of F-T finished fuels production based on the input of a unique syngas composition. Utilizing the composition of the raw syngas, the model calculates the following outputs based on a facility sized to produce 50,000 bbl/day of liquid product: CO2 emissions, liquid product flows, required syngas input, and the net export electricity from the facility. NETL completed this model/study for the Connecticut Center for Advanced Technology (CCAT) to provide techno-economic and life cycle analysis modeling support for CBTL alternative jet fuel production, which forms key references to their report to the Defense Logistics Agency (their project sponsor/funder).

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Topography-Based Subgrid Scheme and Downscaling of Atmospheric Forcing on Modeling Land Surface Processes in the Conterminous US

The effects of small-scale topography-induced land surface heterogeneity are not well represented in current Earth System Models (ESMs). In this study, a new topography-based subgrid structure referred to as topographic units (TGU) designed to better capture subgrid topographic effects, and methods to downscale atmospheric forcing to the land TGUs have been implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM). Effects of the subgrid scheme and downscaling methods on ELM simulated land surface processes are evaluated over the conterminous United States (CONUS). For this purpose, ELM simulations are performed using two configurations without (NoD ELM) and with (D ELM) downscaling, both using TGUs derived for the 0.5-degree grids and the same land surface parameters. Simulations using the two ELM configurations are compared over the CONUS domain, regional levels, and at observational sites (e.g., SNOTEL). The CONUS-level results suggest that D ELM simulates more snowfall and snow water equivalent (SWE), higher runoff, and less ET during spring and summer. Regional-level results suggest more pronounced impacts of downscaling over regions dominated by higher elevation TGUs and regions with maximum precipitation occurring during cool seasons. Results at the SNOTEL sites suggest that D ELM has superior capability of reproducing the observed SWE at 83% of the sites, with more pronounced performance over topographically heterogeneous TGUs with their maximum precipitation occurring during cool seasons. The results highlight the importance of improving representation of small-scale surface heterogeneity in ESMs and motivate future research to understand their effects on land-atmosphere interactions, streamflow, and water resources management over mountainous regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A modified many-body dissipative particle dynamics model for mesoscopic fluid simulation: methodology, calibration, and application for hydrocarbon and water

The many-body dissipative particle dynamics (mDPD) is a prominent mesoscopic multiphase model for fluid transport in mesoconfinement. However, it has been a long-standing challenge for mDPD (and other multiphase-enabled DPD models) to accurately predict real-fluid static and dynamic properties simultaneously. We have developed a modified mDPD model to overcome the issue and a rigorous calibration approach that uses reference data, including experimental and/or molecular dynamics (MD) simulations to parameterise the modified mDPD for real fluids. We choose heptane as a representative example of hydrocarbon in source rocks to demonstrate the model's capability to accurately predict the equation of state (EOS), free surface tension, diffusivity, and viscosity. Our timing test shows that the modified mDPD is 400–500 times faster than its MD counterpart for simulating bulk heptane in equivalent volumes. To further demonstrate the robustness of the model, we revisited the benchmark problem of mesoscopic modelling of water, in which all the previous works on DPD reported only a limited portion of the water properties. Here, we show that the modified mDPD can provide accurate modelling of water static and dynamic properties and an EOS that matches the experimental data to a large range of confinement pressure.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

RNA language models predict mutations that improve RNA function

Structured RNA lies at the heart of many central biological processes, from gene expression to catalysis. RNA structure prediction is not yet possible due to a lack of high-quality reference data associated with organismal phenotypes that could inform RNA function. We present GARNET (Gtdb Acquired RNa with Environmental Temperatures), a new database for RNA structural and functional analysis anchored to the Genome Taxonomy Database (GTDB). GARNET links RNA sequences to experimental and predicted optimal growth temperatures of GTDB reference organisms. Using GARNET, we develop sequence- and structure-aware RNA generative models, with overlapping triplet tokenization providing optimal encoding for a GPT-like model. Leveraging hyperthermophilic RNAs in GARNET and these RNA generative models, we identify mutations in ribosomal RNA that confer increased thermostability to the Escherichia coli ribosome. The GTDB-derived data and deep learning models presented here provide a foundation for understanding the connections between RNA sequence, structure, and function.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Intermolecular structural correlations in model globular and unconcatenated ring polymer liquids

We employ the field theoretic polymer integral equation theory to construct a segment-level theory for the thermodynamics and pair structure of dense liquids of interpenetrating ring polymers and a simple globule model. The latter is defined by a fractal mass distribution on all internal length scales with an exponent equal to the spatial dimension (d F = d s = 3). In an isochoric ensemble the dimensionless compressibility and pressure is predicted to vary exponentially with macromolecular volume fraction. An intermolecular correlation hole exists down to small length scales. This model appears to be useful for a recently studied experimental soft nanoparticle suspension, and also serves as a reference system for our analysis of ring liquids. Motivated by simulations, a two-fractal exponent ring model is adopted for the intramolecular structure factor. At smaller lengths it describes chain-like macromolecules, while on larger scales it corresponds to a space-filling object in the sense that d F = d s = 3. The crossover between these two regimes is of order the entanglement length of the linear chain analog. Based on a constant compressibility ensemble, the effective volume fraction grows at intermediate values of degree of polymerization (N), and crosses over to a very slow logarithmic growth at large N. A weaker intermolecular correlation hole is predicted. The number of nearest neighbor rings increases dramatically at small N, akin to linear chain melts, but then tends to saturate at large N, in accord with simulations. We determine that the tools developed may be relevant for other partially interpenetrating soft objects such as core–shell nanogels or microgels.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2013

Preliminary Model Comparison Results From the Sim-SEQ Project Using TOUGH2, STOMP, Eclipse, and VESA Approach

Sim-SEQ is an international initiative on model comparison for geologic carbon sequestration (GCS), with an objective to understand and, if possible, quantify model uncertainties. Model comparison efforts in Sim-SEQ are initially limited to one specific field test site, hereafter referred to as the Sim-SEQ Study site (or S-3 site). Within Sim-SEQ, different modeling teams are developing conceptual models of CO2 injection at the S-3 site. One of the conceptual models, developed by the LBNL team, is based on TOUGH2/EOS7C. In this paper, we present some preliminary model predictions of the S-3 site using the TOUGH2/EOS7C simulator. We also compare the predictions of the TOUGH2 simulator with three other conceptual models, developed by three different organizations, of the S-3 site.

carbon sequestration↗
DOE OSTI2021

Model America - data and models of every U.S. building

The 5-year goal of the 'Model America' concept was to generate a model of every building in the United States. This data repository delivers on that goal. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has developed the Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) software suite to process multiple types of data, extract building-specific descriptors, generate building energy models, and simulate them on High Performance Computing (HPC) resources. For more information, see AutoBEM-related publications (bit.ly/AutoBEM). There were 125,714,640 buildings detected in the United States and this dataset contains 122,930,327 (97.8%) buildings which resulted in a successful simulation. Future, annual updates have been proposed that may include additional buildings, data improvements, or other algorithmic enhancements. This dataset of 122.9 million buildings includes: Models (state_county.zip) - OpenStudio (v3.1.0) and EnergyPlus (v9.4) building energy models. Please note that the download requires the free Globus Connect Personal (https://www.globus.org/globus-connect-personal); Each model has approximately 3,000 building input descriptors that can be extracted. Please see the EnergyPlus(v9.4) 2,784-page Input/Output Reference Guide (https://energyplus.net/sites/all/modules/custom/nrel_custom/pdfs/pdfs_v9.4.0/InputOutputReference.pdf) for everything that can be retrieved or simulated from these models. These models were derived from the following metadata, which is not included in this dataset: 1. ID - unique building ID 2. County - county name 3. State - state name 4. CZ - ASHRAE Climate Zone designation 5. Clim_Zone - text label of climate zone 6. est_year - estimated year of construction 7. est_commercial - estimated building type (0=residential, 1=commercial) 8. Centroid - building center location in latitude/longitude (from Footprint2D) 9. Footprint2D - building polygon of 2D footprint (lat1/lon1_lat2/lon2_...) 10. Height - building height (meters) 11. Area2D - footprint area (ft2) 12. BuildingType - DOE prototype building designation (IECC=residential) as implemented by OpenStudio-standards 13. WWR_surfaces - percent of each facade (pair of points from Footprint2D) covered by fenestration/windows (average 14.5% for residential, 40% for commercial buildings) 14. NumFloors - number of floors (above-grade) 15. Area - estimate of total conditioned floor area (ft2) 16. Standard - building vintage. These models are made free and openly available in hopes of stimulating any simulation-informed use case. Data is provided as-is with no warranties, express or implied, regarding fitness for a particular purpose. We wish to thank our sponsors which include Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD), U.S. Dept. of Energy's (DOE) Building Technologies Office (BTO), Office of Electricity (OE), Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). This research used resources of the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility, which is a DOE Office of Science User Facility supported under Contract DE-AC02-06CH11357. Please cite as: New, Joshua R., Adams, Mark, Bass, Brett, Berres, Anne, and Clinton, Nicholas (2021). 'Model America - data and models of every U.S. building. [Data set].' Constellation, doi.ccs.ornl.gov/ui/doi/339, April 14, 2021

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Analytic bounds on late-time axion-scalar cosmologies

The cosmological dynamics of multiple scalar/pseudoscalar fields are difficult to solve, especially when the field-space metric is curved. This presents a challenge in determining whether a given model can support cosmic acceleration, without solving for the on-shell solution. In this work, we present bounds on late-time FLRW-cosmologies in classes of theories that involve arbitrary numbers of scalar and pseudoscalar fields coupled both kinetically (leading to a curved field space metric) and through scalar potentials. Such bounds are proven analytically, independently of initial conditions, with no approximation in the field equations and without referring to explicit solutions. Besides their broad applications to cosmological model building, our bounds can be applied to studying asymptotic cosmologies of certain classes of string compactifications.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Application of the OPTEX method for computing reflector parameters

We are investigating the OPTEX reflector model for obtaining few-group reflector parameters consistent with a reference power distribution in the core. In our study, the reference power distribution is obtained using a 142,872-region calculation defined over a 2D eighth-of-core pressurized water reactor and performed with the method of characteristics. The OPTEX method is based on generalized perturbation theory and uses an optimization algorithm known as parametric linear complementarity pivoting. The proposed model leads to few-group diffusion coefficients or P1-weighted macroscopic total cross sections that can be used to represent the reflector in full-core calculations. These few-group parameters can be spatially heterogeneous in order to correctly represent steel baffles present in modern pressurized water reactors. The optimal reflector parameters are compared to those obtained with a flux-volume weighting of the reflector cross sections recovered from the reference calculation. Important improvements in full-core power distribution are observed when the optimal parameters are used. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-P-15: Technique Factor Modulation and Reference Plane Air Kerma Rates in Response to Simulated Patient Thickness Variations for a Sample of Current Generation Fluoroscopes

Purpose: To evaluate and compare approaches to technique factor modulation and air kerma rates in response to simulated patient thickness variations for four state-of-the-art and one previous-generation interventional fluoroscopes. Methods: A polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) phantom was used as a tissue surrogate for the purposes of determining fluoroscopic reference plane air kerma rates, kVp, mA, and spectral filtration over a wide range of simulated tissue thicknesses. Data were acquired for each fluoroscopic and acquisition dose curve within a default abdomen or body imaging protocol. Results: The data obtained indicated vendor- and model-specific variations in the approach to technique factor modulation and reference plane air kerma rates across a range of tissue thicknesses. Some vendors have made hardware advances increasing the radiation output capabilities of their fluoroscopes; this was evident in the acquisition air kerma rates. However, in the imaging protocol evaluated, all of the state-of-the-art systems had relatively low air kerma rates in the fluoroscopic low-dose imaging mode as compared to the previous-generation unit. Each of the newest-generation systems also employ copper filtration in the selected protocol in the acquisition mode of imaging; this is a substantial benefit, reducing the skin entrance dose to the patient in the highest dose-rate mode of fluoroscope operation. Conclusion: Understanding how fluoroscopic technique factors are modulated provides insight into the vendor-specific image acquisition approach and provides opportunities to optimize the imaging protocols for clinical practice. The enhanced radiation output capabilities of some of the fluoroscopes may, under specific conditions, may be beneficial; however, these higher output capabilities also have the potential to lead to unnecessarily high dose rates. Therefore, all parties involved in imaging, including the clinical team, medical physicists, and imaging vendors, must work together to ensure that adequate but not excessive radiation doses are used.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

A scalable framework for the global offline community land model ensemble simulation

Current earth system models have a large range of uncertainty, owing to differences in the simulation of feedbacks and insufficient information to constrain model parameters. Parameter disturbance experiment provides a straightforward method to quantify the variation (uncertainty) outputs caused by model inputs. Owing to the software complexity and computational intensity of earth system models, a large-scale simulation framework is needed to support ensemble simulation required by parameter disturbance experiment. This paper presents a parallel framework for the community land model ensemble simulation. After a software structure review of the community land model simulation, a single factor parameter disturbance experiment of a reference computational experiment design is used to demonstrate the software design principles, computational characteristics of individual application, parallel ensemble simulation implementation, as well as the weak scalability of this simulation framework on a high-end computer. Lastly, the paper discusses some preliminary diagnostic analysis results of the single factor parameter disturbance experiments. The framework design considerations and implementation details described in this paper can be beneficial to many other research programmes involving large scale, legacy modelling system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The effects of bias, drift, and trends in calculating anomalies for evaluating skill of seasonal-to-decadal initialized climate predictions

In initialized seasonal to decadal (S2D) predictions, model hindcasts rapidly drift away from the initial observed state and converge toward a preferred state characterized by systematic error, or bias. Bias and drift are among the greatest challenges facing initialized prediction today. Differences in trends between initial states and drifted states, combined with bias and drift, introduce complexities in calculating anomalies to assess skill of initialized predictions. We examine several methods of calculating anomalies using the Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (DPLE) using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) initialized hindcasts and focus on Pacific and Atlantic SSTs to illustrate issues with anomaly calculations. Three methods of computing anomalies, one as differences from a long term model climatology, another as bias-adjusted differences from the previous 15 year average from observations, and a third as differences from the previous 15 year average from the model, are contrasted and each is shown to have limitations. For the first, trends in bias and drift introduce higher skill estimates earlier and later in the hindcast period due to the trends that contribute to skill. For the second, higher skill can be introduced in situations where low frequency variability in the observations is large compared to the hindcasts on timescales greater than 15 years, while lower skill can result if the predicted signal is small and the bias-correction itself produces a transition of SST anomalies to the opposite sign of those that are observed. The third method has somewhat lower skill compared to each of the others, but has less difficulties with not only the long term trends in the model climatology, but also with the unrealistic situational skill from using observations as a reference. However, the first 15 years of the hindcast period cannot be evaluated due to having to wait to accumulate the previous 15 year model climatology before the method can be applied. Here, the IPO transition in the 2014–2016 time frame from negative to positive (predicted by Meehl et al. in in Nat Commun, 10.1038/NCOMMS11718, 2016) did indeed verify using all three methods, though each provides somewhat different skill values as a result of the respective limitations. There is no clear best method, as all are roughly comparable, and each has its own set of limitations and caveats. However, all three methods show generally higher overall skill in the AMO region compared to the IPO region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗