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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

ALPHANSO: Open-source modeling of (α, n) neutron source terms

Applications ranging from nuclear safeguards to dark matter detection require accurate predictions of neutron yields and energy spectra produced by (α, n) reactions. Legacy tools like SOURCES-4C remain widely used despite significant limitations, including outdated nuclear data, missing target nuclides, and restricted accessibility. Here, we present ALPHANSO, an open-source Python package for calculating (α, n) neutron source terms. ALPHANSO incorporates modern nuclear data libraries and formats covering all naturally occurring target nuclides and provides a transparent, modular framework for updating or extending the data as new evaluations are released. Comparison with an updated version of SOURCES-4A, NeuCBOT, and experimental measurements across a range of elements and materials shows that ALPHANSO reproduces neutron yields and spectra in good agreement with experimental data and state-of-the-art (α, n) calculations. These results demonstrate that ALPHANSO is a reliable, accessible, and modern alternative to legacy (α, n) source term codes such as SOURCES-4C. Its open-source design and modular data handling make it readily extensible to future evaluated nuclear data and low-background applications.

(α, n) reactions↗
NASA NTRS2002

Re-Os Isotopic Constraints on the Chemical Evolution and Differentiation of the Martian Mantle

The (187)Re-187Os isotopic systematics of SNC meteorites, thought to be from Mars, provide valuable information regarding the chemical processes that affected the Martian mantle, particularly with regard to the relative abundances of highly siderophile elements (HSE). Previously published data (Birck and Allegre 1994, Brandon et al. 2000), and new data obtained since these studies, indicate that the HSE and Os isotopic composition of the Martian mantle was primarily set in its earliest differentiation history. If so, then these meteorites provide key constraints on the processes that lead to variation in HSE observed in not only Mars, but also Earth, the Moon and other rocky bodies in the Solar System. Processes that likely have an effect on the HSE budgets of terrestrial mantles include core formation, magma ocean crystallization, development of juvenile crust, and the addition of a late veneer. Each of these processes will result in different HSE variation and the isotopic composition of mantle materials and mantle derived lavas. Two observations on the SNC data to present provide a framework for which to test the importance of each of these processes. First, the concentrations of Re and Os in SNC meteorites indicate that they are derived from a mantle that has similar concentrations to the Earth's mantle. Such an observation is consistent with a model where a chondritic late veneer replenished the Earth and Martian mantles subsequent to core formation on each planet. Alternative models to explain this observation do exist, but will require additional data to test the limitations of each. Second, Re-Os isotopic results from Brandon et al. (2000) and new data presented here, show that initial yos correlates with variations in the short-lived systems of (182)Hf- (182)W and (142)Sm-142Nd in the SNC meteorites (epsilon(sub W) and epsilon(sub 142Nd)). These systematics require an isolation of mantle reservoirs during the earliest differentiation history of Mars, and subsequent inefficient mixing between these reservoirs. These data show that models for the origin of isotopic variation for SNC meteorites require at least two long-lived mantle reservoirs, and possibly three. The range in the projected present day gamma(sub Os) of these reservoirs is from -5.4+/-2.6, to +4+/-1. The isotopic systematics of these reservoirs may be linked to development of cumulate crystal piles in a Martian magma ocean and variable amounts of late stage intercumulus melt. In this model, fractional crystallization of olivine and possibly other phases with slightly subchondritic Re/Os, from a solidifying magma ocean, resulted in a lower Re/Os ratio early cumulates, and a resultant low gamma(sub Os). Later cumulates or evolved melts crystallized with higher Re/Os ratios to produce the mantle reservoir(s) with consequent higher gamma(sub Os). Crystallization of the Martian magma ocean followed earliest core formation, as indicated by the correlation of epsilon(sub W) with epsilon(sub 142Nd) and initial gamma(sub Os).

Brandon, Alan D.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Analysis of Environmentally Friendly Refrigerant Options for Window Air Conditioners

This paper presents a technical assessment of environmentally friendly refrigerants as alternatives to R410A for window air conditioners. The alternative refrigerants that are studied for its replacement include R32, a mixture of R32/R125 with 90%/10% molar concentration, R600a, R290, R1234yf, R1234ze and R134a. Baseline experiments were performed on a window unit charged with R410A. The heat pump design model (HPDM) was modified and calibrated with the baseline data and was used to evaluate the comparative performance of the WAC with alternative refrigerants. The paper discusses the advantages and disadvantages of each refrigerants and their suitability for window air conditioners. Among all the refrigerants studied, R32 offers the best efficiency and the lowest Global Warming Potential (GWP), and hence its use will result in the overall environmental friendliness.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2014

Assessment of Environmentally Friendly Refrigerants for Window Air Conditioners

This paper presents technical assessment of environmentally friendly refrigerants for window air conditioners that currently use refrigerant R410A for residential and commercial applications. The alternative refrigerants that are studied for its replacement include R32, R600a, R290, R1234yf, R1234ze and a mixture of R32 (90% molar concentration) and R125 (10% molar concentration). Baseline experiments were performed on a window unit charged with R410A. The ORNL Heat Pump Design Model was calibrated with the baseline data and was used to assess the comparative performance of the WAC with alternative refrigerants. The paper discusses the advantages and disadvantages of each refrigerants and their suitability for window air conditioners.

Alternative refrigerants↗
DOE OSTI2026

Neural Posterior Estimation for Scalable and Accurate Inverse Parameter Inference in Li-Ion Batteries

Diagnosing the internal state of Li-ion batteries is critical for battery research, operation of real-world systems, and prognostic evaluation of remaining lifetime. By using physics-based models to perform probabilistic parameter estimation via Bayesian calibration, diagnostics can account for the uncertainty due to model fitness, data noise, and the observability of any given parameter. However, Bayesian calibration in Li-ion batteries using electrochemical data is computationally intensive even when using a fast surrogate in place of physics-based models, requiring many thousands of model evaluations. A fully amortized alternative is neural posterior estimation (NPE). NPE shifts the computational burden from the parameter estimation step to data generation and model training, reducing the parameter estimation time from minutes to milliseconds, enabling real-time applications. The present work shows that NPE can infer parameters equally or more accurately than Bayesian calibration, even if it leads to higher voltage reconstruction errors. We also demonstrate that the higher computational costs for data generation are tractable even in high-dimensional cases (ranging from 6 to 27 estimated parameters). The NPE method also offers several interpretability advantages over Bayesian calibration, such as local parameter sensitivity to specific regions of the voltage curve. The NPE method is demonstrated using an experimental fast charge dataset, with parameter estimates validated against measurements of loss of lithium inventory and loss of active material. The implementation is made available in a companion repository (https://github.com/NatLabRockies/BatFIT).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Transport modeling of convection dominated helicon discharges in Proto-MPEX with the B2.5-Eirene code

Data-constrained interpretative analyses of plasma transport in convection dominated helicon discharges in the Proto-MPEX linear device, and predictive calculations with additional Electron Cyclotron Heating/Electron Bernstein Wave (ECH/EBW) heating, are reported. The B2.5-Eirene code, in which the multi-fluid plasma code B2.5 is coupled to the kinetic Monte Carlo neutrals code Eirene, is used to fit double Langmuir probe measurements and fast camera data in front of a stainless-steel target. The absorbed helicon and ECH power (11 kW) and spatially constant anomalous transport coefficients that are deduced from fitting of the probe and optical data are additionally used for predictive simulations of complete axial distributions of the densities, temperatures, plasma flow velocities, particle and energy fluxes, and possible effects of alternate fueling and pumping scenarios. The somewhat hollow electron density and temperature radial profiles from the probe data suggest that Trivelpiece-Gould wave absorption is the dominant helicon electron heating source in the discharges analyzed here. There is no external ion heating, but the corresponding calculated ion temperature radial profile is not hollow. Rather it reflects ion heating by the electron-ion equilibration terms in the energy balance equations and ion radial transport resulting from the hollow density profile. With the absorbed power and the transport model deduced from fitting the sheath limited discharge data, calculated conduction limited higher recycling conditions were produced by reducing the pumping and increasing the gas fueling rate, resulting in an approximate doubling of the target ion flux and reduction of the target heat flux.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2003

Three-Dimensional Magnetic Analysis Technique Developed for Evaluating Stirling Convertor Linear Alternators

The Department of Energy, the Stirling Technology Company (STC), and the NASA Glenn Research Center are developing Stirling convertors for Stirling radioisotope generators to provide electrical power for future NASA deep space missions. STC is developing the 55-We technology demonstration convertor (TDC) under contract to the Department of Energy. The Department of Energy recently named Lockheed Martin as the system integration contractor for the Stirling radioisotope generator development project. Lockheed Martin will develop the Stirling radioisotope generator engineering unit and has contract options to develop the qualification unit and the first flight unit. Glenn s role includes an in-house project to provide convertor, component, and materials testing and evaluation in support of the overall power system development. As a part of this work, Glenn has established an in-house Stirling research laboratory for testing, analyzing, and evaluating Stirling machines. STC has built four 55-We convertors for NASA, and these are being tested at Glenn. A cross-sectional view of the 55-We TDC is shown in the figure. Of critical importance to the successful development of the Stirling convertor for space power applications is the development of a lightweight and highly efficient linear alternator. In support, Glenn has been developing finite element analysis and finite element method tools for performing various linear alternator thermal and electromagnetic analyses and evaluating design configurations. A three-dimensional magnetostatic finite element model of STC's 55-We TDC linear alternator was developed to evaluate the demagnetization fields affecting the alternator magnets. Since the actual linear alternator hardware is symmetric to the quarter section about the axis of motion, only a quarter section of the alternator was modeled. The components modeled included the mover laminations, the neodymium-iron-boron magnets, the stator laminations, and the copper coils. The three-dimensional magnetostatic model was then coupled with a circuit simulator model of the alternator load and convertor controller. The coupled model was then used to generate alternator terminal voltage and current predictions. The predicted voltage and current waveforms agreed well with the experimental data, which tended to validate the accuracy of the coupled model. The model was then used to generate predictions of the demagnetization fields acting on the alternator magnets for the alternator under load. The preliminary model predictions indicate that the highest potential for demagnetization is along the inside surface of the uncovered magnets. The demagnetization field for the uncovered magnets when the mover is positioned at the end of a stroke is higher than it is when the mover is at the position of maximum induced voltage or maximum alternator current. Assuming normal load conditions, the model predicted that the onset of demagnetization is most likely to occur for magnet temperatures above 101 C.

Geng, Steven M.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Correaltion of full-scale drag predictions with flight measurements on the C-141A aircraft. Phase 2: Wind tunnel test, analysis, and prediction techniques. Volume 1: Drag predictions, wind tunnel data analysis and correlation

The degree of cruise drag correlation on the C-141A aircraft is determined between predictions based on wind tunnel test data, and flight test results. An analysis of wind tunnel tests on a 0.0275 scale model at Reynolds number up to 3.05 x 1 million/MAC is reported. Model support interference corrections are evaluated through a series of tests, and fully corrected model data are analyzed to provide details on model component interference factors. It is shown that predicted minimum profile drag for the complete configuration agrees within 0.75% of flight test data, using a wind tunnel extrapolation method based on flat plate skin friction and component shape factors. An alternative method of extrapolation, based on computed profile drag from a subsonic viscous theory, results in a prediction four percent lower than flight test data.

Macwilkinson, D. G.↗
DOE OSTI2023

From Layered Antiferromagnet to 3D Ferromagnet: LiMnBi-to-MnBi Magneto-Structural Transformation

Here, the intermetallic compound LiMnBi was synthesized by the two-step solid-state reaction from the elements. The synthesis temperature of 850 K was selected based on in-situ high-temperature powder X-ray diffraction data. LiMnBi crystalizes in the layered-like PbClF structure type (a = 4.3131(7) Å, c = 7.096(1) Å at 100 K, P4/nmm space group, Z = 2). LiMnBi structure is built of the alternating [MnBi] and Li layers, as determined from single-crystal X-ray diffraction data. Magnetic properties measurements and solid-state 7 Li Nuclear Magnetic Resonance data collected for polycrystalline LiMnBi samples indicate the long-range antiferromagnetic ordering of Mn sublattice at ~340 K, with no superconductivity down to 5 K detected. LiMnBi is air- and water-sensitive. In aerobic conditions, Li can be extracted from LiMnBi structure to form Li 2 O/LiOH and MnBi (NiAs structure type, P6 3 /mmc). The obtained MnBi polymorph was previously reported to be one of the strongest rare-earth-free ferromagnets, yet its bulk synthesis in powder form is cumbersome. The proposed magneto-structural transformation from ternary LiMnBi to ferromagnetic MnBi involves condensation of the MnBi4 tetrahedra upon Li deintercalation and is exclusive to LiMnBi. In contrast, ferromagnetic MnBi cannot be obtained from either isostructural NaMnBi and KMnBi, or from the structurally related CaMn 2 Bi 2 . Such a distinctive transformation in the case of LiMnBi is presumed to be due to its fitting reactivity to yield MnBi and favorable interlayer distance between [MnBi] layers, while the interlayer distance in NaMnBi and KMnBi structural analogs is unfavorably long. The studies of delithiation from the layered-like LiMnBi under different chemical environments indicate that the yield of the MnBi depends on the type of solvent used and the kinetics of the reaction. A slow rate and mild reaction media lead to a high fraction of the MnBi product. The saturation magnetization of the “as-prepared” MnBi is ~50 % of the expected value of 81.3 emu/g. Overall, this study adds a missing member to the family of ternary pnictides and illustrates how soft-chemistry methods can be used to obtain “difficult-to-synthesize” compounds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1976

User data dissemination concepts for earth resources

Domestic data dissemination networks for earth-resources data in the 1985-1995 time frame were evaluated. The following topics were addressed: (1) earth-resources data sources and expected data volumes, (2) future user demand in terms of data volume and timeliness, (3) space-to-space and earth point-to-point transmission link requirements and implementation, (4) preprocessing requirements and implementation, (5) network costs, and (6) technological development to support this implementation. This study was parametric in that the data input (supply) was varied by a factor of about fifteen while the user request (demand) was varied by a factor of about nineteen. Correspondingly, the time from observation to delivery to the user was varied. This parametric evaluation was performed by a computer simulation that was based on network alternatives and resulted in preliminary transmission and preprocessing requirements. The earth-resource data sources considered were: shuttle sorties, synchronous satellites (e.g., SEOS), aircraft, and satellites in polar orbits.

Davies, R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of sulfur SAD to small crystals with a large asymmetric unit and anomalous substructure

The application of sulfur single-wavelength anomalous dispersion (S-SAD) to determine the crystal structures of macromolecules can be challenging if the asymmetric unit is large, the crystals are small, the size of the anomalously scattering sulfur structure is large and the resolution at which the anomalous signals can be accurately measured is modest. Here, as a study of such a case, approaches to the SAD phasing of orthorhombic Ric-8A crystals are described. The structure of Ric-8A was published with only a brief description of the phasing process [Zeng et al. (2019), Structure , 27 , 1137–1141]. Here, alternative approaches to determining the 40-atom sulfur substructure of the 103 kDa Ric-8A dimer that composes the asymmetric unit are explored. At the data-collection wavelength of 1.77 Å measured at the Frontier micro-focusing Macromolecular Crystallography (FMX) beamline at National Synchrotron Light Source II, the sulfur anomalous signal strength, |Δ ano |/σΔ ano ( d ′′/sig), approaches 1.4 at 3.4 Å resolution. The highly redundant, 11 000 000-reflection data set measured from 18 crystals was segmented into isomorphous clusters using BLEND in the CCP 4 program suite. Data sets within clusters or sets of clusters were scaled and merged using AIMLESS from CCP 4 or, alternatively, the phenix.scale_and_merge tool from the Phenix suite. The latter proved to be the more effective in extracting anomalous signals. The HySS tool in Phenix , SHELXC / D and PRASA as implemented in the CRANK 2 program suite were each employed to determine the sulfur substructure. All of these approaches were effective, although HySS , as a component of the phenix.autosol tool, required data from all crystals to find the positions of the sulfur atoms. Critical contributors in this case study to successful phase determination by SAD included (i) the high-flux FMX beamline, featuring helical-mode data collection and a helium-filled beam path, (ii) as recognized by many authors, a very highly redundant, multiple-crystal data set and (iii) the inclusion within that data set of data from crystals that were scanned over large ω ranges, yielding highly isomorphous and highly redundant intensity measurements.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

XMM-Newton and NuSTAR Simultaneous X-Ray Observations of IGR J11215-5952

We report the results of an XMM - Newton and NuSTAR coordinated observation of the Supergiant Fast X-ray Transient (SFXT) IGR J11215–5952, performed on 2016 February 14, during the expected peak of its brief outburst, which repeats every ∼165 days. Timing and spectral analysis were performed simultaneously in the energy band 0.4–78 keV. A spin period of 187.0 (±0.4) s was measured, consistent with previous observations performed in 2007. The X-ray intensity shows a large variability (more than one order of magnitude) on timescales longer than the spin period, with several luminous X-ray flares that repeat every 2–2.5 ks, some of which simultaneously observed by both satellites. The broadband (0.4–78 keV) time-averaged spectrum was well deconvolved with a double-component model (a blackbody plus a power law with a high energy cutoff) together with a weak iron line in emission at 6.4 keV (equivalent width, EW, of 40 ± 10 eV). Alternatively, a partial covering model also resulted in an adequate description of the data. The source time-averaged X-ray luminosity was 10{sup 36} erg s{sup −1} (0.1–100 keV; assuming 7 kpc). We discuss the results of these observations in the framework of the different models proposed to explain SFXTs, supporting a quasi-spherical settling accretion regime, although alternative possibilities (e.g., centrifugal barrier) cannot be ruled out.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2007

Lightning Charge Retrievals: Dimensional Reduction, LDAR Constraints, and a First Comparison with LIS Satellite Data

A "dimensional reduction" ("DR") method is introduced for analyzing lightning field changes ((Delta)Es) whereby the number of unknowns in a discrete two-charge model is reduced from the standard eight (x, y, z, Q, x', y', z', Q') to just four (x, y, z, Q). The four unknowns (x, y, z, Q) are found by performing a numerical minimization of a chi-square function. At each step of the minimization, an overdetermined fixed matrix (OFM) method is used to immediately retrieve the best "residual source" (x', y', z', Q'), given the values of (x, y, z, Q). In this way, all eight parameters Ix. y, z, Q, x', y', z', Q') are found, yet a numerical search of only four parameters (x, y, z, Q) is required. The DR method has been used to analyze lightning-caused (Delta)Es derived from multiple ground-based electric field measurements at the NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and U.S. Air Force Eastern Range (ER). The accuracy of the DR method has been assessed by comparing retrievals with data provided by the lightning detection and ranging (LDAR) system at the KSC-ER. and from least squares error estimation theory, and the method is shown to be a useful "stand alone" charge retrieval tool. Since more than one charge distribution describes a finite set of (Delta)Es (i.e., solutions are nonunique), and since there can be appreciable differences in the physical characteristics of these solutions, not all DR solutions are physically acceptable. Hence. an alternative and more accurate method of analysis is introduced that uses LDAR data to constrain the geometry of the charge solutions. thereby removing physically unacceptable retrievals. The charge solutions derived from this method are shown to compare well with independent satellite- and ground-based observations of lightning m several Florida storms.

Koshak, W. J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Development of a Numerical Model for High-Temperature Shape Memory Alloys

A thermomechanical hysteresis model for a high-temperature shape memory alloy (HTSMA) actuator material is presented. The model is capable of predicting strain output of a tensile-loaded HTSMA when excited by arbitrary temperature-stress inputs for the purpose of actuator and controls design. Common quasi-static generalized Preisach hysteresis models available in the literature require large sets of experimental data for model identification at a particular operating point, and substantially more data for multiple operating points. The novel algorithm introduced here proposes an alternate approach to Preisach methods that is better suited for research-stage alloys, such as recently-developed HTSMAs, for which a complete database is not yet available. A detailed description of the minor loop hysteresis model is presented in this paper, as well as a methodology for determination of model parameters. The model is then qualitatively evaluated with respect to well-established Preisach properties and against a set of low-temperature cycled loading data using a modified form of the one-dimensional Brinson constitutive equation. The computationally efficient algorithm demonstrates adherence to Preisach properties and excellent agreement to the validation data set.

DeCastro, Jonathan A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Lightning Charge Retrievals: Dimensional Reduction, LDAR Constraints, and a First Comparison with LIS Satellite Data

A "dimensional reduction" (DR) method is introduced for analyzing lightning field changes (DELTAEs) whereby the number of unknowns in a discrete two-charge model is reduced from the standard eight (x, y, z, Q, x', y', z', Q') to just four (x, y, z, Q). The four unknowns (x, y, z, Q) are found by performing a numerical minimization of a chi-square function. At each step of the minimization, an Overdetermined Fixed Matrix (OFM) method is used to immediately retrieve the best "residual source" (x', y', z', Q'), given the values of (x, y, z, Q). In this way, all 8 parameters (x, y, z, Q, x', y', z', Q') are found, yet a numerical search of only 4 parameters (x, y, z, Q) is required. The DR method has been used to analyze lightning-caused DeltaEs derived from multiple ground-based electric field measurements at the NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and USAF Eastern Range (ER). The accuracy of the DR method has been assessed by comparing retrievals with data provided by the Lightning Detection And Ranging (LDAR) system at the KSC-ER, and from least squares error estimation theory, and the method is shown to be a useful "stand-alone" charge retrieval tool. Since more than one charge distribution describes a finite set of DELTAEs (i.e., solutions are non-unique), and since there can exist appreciable differences in the physical characteristics of these solutions, not all DR solutions are physically acceptable. Hence, an alternative and more accurate method of analysis is introduced that uses LDAR data to constrain the geometry of the charge solutions, thereby removing physically unacceptable retrievals. The charge solutions derived from this method are shown to compare well with independent satellite- and ground-based observations of lightning in several Florida storms.

Koshak, W. J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using Machine Learning to Predict Future Temperature Outputs in Geothermal Systems

Optimizing the power output, and economic value, of geothermal power plants over decades of operation is a major challenge in renewable energy. Optimizing the output requires the ability to predict the mass flow rates and the output temperatures of production wells based on the inputs of injection wells, as well as the time history of the system. Machine Learning (ML) that incorporates the known physics of geothermal systems is one possible solution to this challenge. In this work, we explore the ability of ML algorithms to predict future temperature outputs based on historical data. Considering the challenges with obtaining an empirical dataset from field data that is large enough to enable reliable ML, we propose an alternate approach: developing a high-fidelity reservoir model and using computational resources to build a dataset that enables ML. As a first step towards achieving this goal, we present preliminary results from applying ML to predict the temperature timeseries of simple modeled geothermal systems. We describe the application of relevant state-of-the-art ML approaches, such as the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), to extract temporal structures in the model data. We assess the accuracy of the forecasts we obtain, compare the selected approaches, and share the lessons learned that would inform the process of training and utilizing ML algorithms for larger and more complex geothermal systems.

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1991

Analysis of navigation performance for the Earth Observing System (EOS) using the TDRSS Onboard Navigation System (TONS)

Use of the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) Onboard Navigation System (TONS) was proposed as an alternative to the Global Positioning System (GPS) for supporting the Earth Observing System (EOS) mission. The results are presented of EOS navigation performance evaluation with respect to TONS based orbit, time, and frequency determination (OD/TD/FD). Two TONS modes are considered: one uses scheduled TDRSS forward link service to derive one way Doppler tracking data for OD/FD support (TONS-I); the other uses an unscheduled navigation beacon service (proposed for Advanced TDRSS) to obtain pseudorange and Doppler data for OD/TD/FD support (TONS-II). Key objectives of the analysis were to evaluate nominal performance and potential sensitivities, such as suboptimal tracking geometry, tracking contact scheduling, and modeling parameter selection. OD/TD/FD performance predictions are presented based on covariance and simulation analyses. EOS navigation scenarios and the contributions of principal error sources impacting performance are also described. The results indicate that a TONS mode can be configured to meet current and proposed EOS position accuracy requirements of 100 and 50 m, respectively.

Elrod, B.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Machine learning-based surrogate modeling for data-driven optimization: a comparison of subset selection for regression techniques

Optimization of simulation-based or data-driven systems is a challenging task, which has attracted significant attention in the recent literature. A very efficient approach for optimizing systems without analytical expressions is through fitting surrogate models. Due to their increased flexibility, nonlinear interpolating functions, such as radial basis functions and Kriging, have been predominantly used as surrogates for data-driven optimization; however, these methods lead to complex nonconvex formulations. Alternatively, commonly used regression-based surrogates lead to simpler formulations, but they are less flexible and inaccurate if the form is not known a priori. In this work, we investigate the efficiency of subset selection regression techniques for developing surrogate functions that balance both accuracy and complexity. Subset selection creates sparse regression models by selecting only a subset of original features, which are linearly combined to generate a diverse set of surrogate models. Five different subset selection techniques are compared with commonly used nonlinear interpolating surrogate functions with respect to optimization solution accuracy, computation time, sampling requirements, and model sparsity. Furthermore, our results indicate that subset selection-based regression functions exhibit promising performance when the dimensionality is low, while interpolation performs better for higher dimensional problems.

42 ENGINEERING↗