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Atmospheric testbed workshop, August 5-6, 2013

A primary goal of the Climate and Environmental Sciences Division (CESD) is to improve the predictive ability of regional and global climate models (GCMs). One set of tools used for evaluating and improving model predictions and projections are testbeds that combine data derived from observations and model simulations. In these testbeds, outputs of model simulations can be compared to observations of the climate system in order to identify errors and/or biases in the model simulations and determine the specific model processes that need improvements. Testbeds can also be used to provide scientific insights into dominant processes and process interactions as well as increase our understanding of the role of various physical processes involved in a particular case study or meteorological event. CESD currently funds multiple activities, which are developing testbeds to evaluate and improve atmospheric model parameterizations across a range of models, scales, and processes. For each of these testbeds, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility represents a primary source of observational data for evaluating the models. The Atmospheric System Research (ASR), Earth System Modeling (ESM), Regional and Global Climate Modeling (RGCM), and ARM program managers co-sponsored a workshop on atmospheric testbed activities across CESD. The workshop was held August 5-6, 2013, at the U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) Germantown facility. The principal objectives of the workshop were to survey the CESD testbed portfolios; identify the distinctive capabilities of each testbed as well as commonalities between the testbeds; identify areas for coordination and collaboration among testbeds; improve linkages between testbed activities and the ARM facility; identify gaps in testbed activities; and identify ways to improve coordination and communication among the testbeds and between the testbeds and the broader scientific community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Flight Mechanics Modeling and Simulation of the Earth Entry System

Introduction: The Mars Sample Return (MSR) Campaign being planned by NASA and ESA has the ambitious goal to return Mars samples back to Earth. This international collaboration had developed a concept of operations that included a ESA-designed Earth Return Orbiter (ERO) and NASA-designed Capture, Containment, and Return System (CCRS). The Earth Entry System (EES), consisting of a protective aeroshell that houses the samples as well as sample containment vessels, would conduct entry, descent, and landing (EDL) on a direct Earth trajectory. The EES would enter on a spin-stabilized ballistic trajectory with the goal to passively achieve aerodynamic stability throughout all regions of flight. The EDL sequence would end with the EES impacting the soft playa soil of the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR). As of the submission of this abstract, the MSR campaign is undergoing a re-architecture leading to a pause in EES development. However, the novel approaches developed in flight mechanics modeling and simulation can significantly benefit the greater IPPW community in the development of Earth return vehicles. This paper will present the latest state of EES flight mechanics modeling and simulation. The paper will highlight the simulation architecture developed and key lessons learned from understanding of EDL trajectory sensitivities. Modeling and Simulation: Figure 1 provides a high-level concept of operations for the approach, entry, descent, and landing (AEDL) phase of the CCRS-portion of MSR. The objective of EES flight mechanics is to model and simulate the EES trajectory from ERO separation to ground impact at UTTR. A variety of flight mechanics simulation models were utilized to model both exo-atmopsheric and atmospheric portions of flight. 42, a 6-DOF simulation developed at Goddard Space Flight Center, is utilized for propagating the attitude of EES during exo-atmospheric flight. 42 allows for a variety of spin eject mechanism scenarios to be simulated for analysis. 10 minutes prior to entry, the 42 states are handed off to the EDL sims. The prime EDL sim utilized by EES is the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories II (POST2), a 6-DOF sim developed at Langley Research Center, and the independent verification and validation EDL sim utilized is DSENDS, a 6-DOF sim developed at Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Figure 2 provides a visualization of the flight mechanics simulation model flow through various points in the AEDL phase. Due to the existence of a variety of sim models, the EES flight mechanics team developed processes for data hand-off. These processes included the development of a centralized coordinate frame document, utilization of a single, centralized simulation input document for all sims to reference, and hand-off files containing both the technical data to be ingested by other flight mechanics sims as well as annotations of modeling assumptions utilized to generate the data. Figure~\ref{fig:post2simarchitecture} provides an overview of the POST2 sim architecture wherein POST2 ingests numerous subsystem models and input files. The dispersed state file generated by MONTE provides the position/velocity state of the trajectory while the 42 Handoff file provides the attitude. The aerodynamics database, delivered by the EES aeroscience team, is utilized to simulate the aerodynamic forces and moments experienced during EDL. A custom atmosphere model, developed by EES atmosphere team, is utilized to simulate the anticipated atmosphere environment around the region of Earth through which the EES trajectory flys. These inputs and subsystem models can be varied depending on the AEDL flight mechanics scenario being simulated. Monte Carlo simulations are utilized to generate statistical AEDL performance metrics in the form of scorecards and violin plots. Furthermore, outputs from the POST2 simulation are utilized for follow-on analyses including aerothermal and landing performance. \section{Flight Mechanics Lessons Learned} Though the EES flight mechanics team uncovered a variety of lessons learned through the analysis conducted to support CCRS through preliminary design review, this paper will highlight the most important lessons. A key AEDL performance goal is to ensure the landing footprint of EES remains on the UTTR south range. A common modeling strategy used in EDL analysis is One-Variable-At-a-Time (OVAT). OVAT analysis provides insight into the key drivers that affect AEDL performance metrics. Figure 3 shows the landing ellipses for single dispersion sources as compared to the baseline aggregate of all dispersions. The figure shows that atmosphere winds alone dominate the size of the footprint ellipse (note: EES does not use a parachute unlike previous Earth-return missions and is in wind-driven free fall for ~5min). The significance of the wind led the EES flight mechanics team to pursue the development of a Custom Atmosphere Model [4], in lieu of EarthGRAM [1], built on actual radiosonde wind measurements around the UTTR-region. This decision was driven by the realism in the generated footprint ellipses and lessons-learned from Stardust [5]. These findings will be invaluable for future Earth-return missions in providing an early understanding of the key drivers affecting footprint size and modeling considerations for which to account. Another lesson learned is tied to the AEDL performance goal of achieving passive stability throughout all regions of flight. It is well understood that blunt-body aeroshells are less stable as they transition from supersonic to subsonic. Eliminating a backshell does help improvestability; however, other phenomena such as roll-induced instability during terminal descent can still arise. The EES flight mechanics team developed stability metrics as tools to better understand the causes of and better predict the onset of dynamic instability. These tools were built upon analytical models developed by Jaffe [3] and Murphy [2]. The tools were shown to both be very accurate in correlation with actual unstable cases and useful in developing stability margin policies based on the vehicle design and simulation considerations (e.g. sphere-cone angle change, mass change, wind turbulence). These tools allowed for the current EES design to demonstrate the ability to achieve passive stability and can be an invaluable tool for consideration in the design of parachute-less Earth-return vehicles.

Rohan Deshmukh↗

Overview of the New Version 3 NASA Micro-Pulse Lidar Network (MPLNET) Automatic Precipitation Detection Algorithm

Precipitation modifies atmospheric column thermodynamics through the process of evaporation and serves as a proxy for latent heat modulation. For this reason, a correct precipitation parameterization (especially for low-intensity precipitation) within global scale models is crucial. In addition to improving our modeling of the hydrological cycle, this will reduce the associated uncertainty of global climate models in correctly forecasting future scenarios, and will enable the application of mitigation strategies. In this manuscript we present a proof of concept algorithm to automatically detect precipitation from lidar measurements obtained from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Micropulse lidar network (MPLNET). The algorithm, once tested and validated against other remote sensing instruments, will be operationally implemented into the network to deliver a near real time (latency <1.5 h) rain masking variable that will be publicly available on MPLNET website as part of the new Version 3 data products. The methodology, based on an image processing technique, detects only light precipitation events (defined by intensity and duration) such as light rain, drizzle, and virga. During heavy rain events, the lidar signal is completely extinguished after a few meters in the precipitation or it is unusable because of water accumulated on the receiver optics. Results from the algorithm, in addition to filling a gap in light rain, drizzle, and virga detection by radars, are of particular interest for the scientific community as they help to fully characterize the aerosol cycle, from emission to deposition, as precipitation is a crucial meteorological phenomenon accelerating atmospheric aerosol removal through the scavenging effect. Algorithm results will also help the understanding of long term aerosol–cloud interactions, exploiting the multi-year database from several MPLNET permanent observational sites across the globe. The algorithm is also applicable to other lidar and/or ceilometer network infrastructures in the framework of the Global Aerosol Watch (GAW) aerosol lidar observation network (GALION).

Simone Lolli↗

Data management for JGOFS: Theory and design

The Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS), currently being organized under the auspices of the Scientific Committee for Ocean Research (SCOR), is intended to be a decade long internationally coordinated program. The main goal of JGOFS is to determine and understand on a global scale the processes controlling the time-varying fluxes of carbon and associated biogenic elements in the ocean and to evaluate the related exchanges with the atmosphere, sea floor and continental boundaries. 'A long-term goal of JGOFS will be to establish strategies for observing, on long time scales, changes in ocean biogeochemical cycles in relation to climate change'. Participation from a large number of U.S. and foreign institutions is expected. JGOFS investigators have begun a set of time-series measurements and global surveys of a wide variety of biological, chemical and physical quantities, detailed process-oriented studies, satellite observations of ocean color and wind stress and modeling of the bio-geochemical processes. These experiments will generate data in amounts unprecedented in the biological and chemical communities; rapid and effortless exchange of these data will be important to the success of JGOFS.

Flierl, Glenn R.↗

Diagnosing the Nature of Land-Atmosphere Coupling During the 2006-7 Dry/Wet Extremes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Land-atmosphere interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture states. The degree of coupling between the land surface and PBL in numerical weather prediction and climate models remains largely unexplored and undiagnosed due to the complex interactions and feedbacks present across a range of scales. Further, uncoupled systems or experiments (e.g., the Project for Intercomparison of Land Parameterization Schemes, PILPS) may lead to inaccurate water and energy cycle process understanding by neglecting feedback processes such as PBL-top entrainment. In this study, a framework for diagnosing local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) is presented using a coupled mesoscale model with a suite of PBL and land surface model (LSM) options along with observations during the summers of200617 in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been coupled to NASA's Land Information System (LIS), which provides a flexible and high-resolution representation and initialization of land surface physics and states. A range of diagnostics exploring the links and feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation are examined for the dry/wet extremes of this region, along with the sensitivity of PBL-LSM coupling to perturbations in soil moisture. As such, this methodology provides a potential pathway to study factors controlling local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) using the LIS-WRF system, which is serving as a testbed for LoCo experiments to evaluate coupling diagnostics within the community.

Santanello, Joseph A.↗

Diagnosing the Nature of Land-Atmosphere Coupling During the 2006-7 Dry/Wet Extremes in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Land-atmosphere interactions play a critical role in determining the. diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture states. The degree of coupling between the land surface and PBL in numerical weather prediction and climate models remains largely unexplored and undiagnosed due to the complex interactions and feedbacks present across a range of scales. Further, uncoupled systems or experiments (e.g., the Project for Intercomparison of Land Parameterization Schemes, PILPS) may lead to inaccurate water and energy cycle process understanding by neglecting feedback processes such as PBL-top entrainment. In this study, a framework for diagnosing local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) is presented using a coupled mesoscale model with a suite of PBL and land surface model (LSM) options along with observations during the summers of 200617 in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. Specifically, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been coupled to NASA's Land Information System (LIS), which provides a flexible and high-resolution representation and initialization of land surface physics and states. A range of diagnostics exploring the links and feedbacks between soil moisture and precipitation are examined for the dry/wet extremes of this region, along with the sensitivity of PBL-LSM coupling to perturbations in soil moisture. As such, this methodology provides a potential pathway to study factors controlling local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) using the LIS-WRF system, which is serving as a testbed for LoCo experiments to evaluate coupling diagnostics within the community.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

Confronting Earth System Model trends with observations

Anthropogenically forced climate change signals are emerging from the noise of internal variability in observations, and the impacts on society are growing. For decades, Climate or Earth System Models have been predicting how these climate change signals will unfold. While challenges remain, given the growing forced trends and the lengthening observational record, the climate science community is now in a position to confront the signals, as represented by historical trends, in models with observations. This review covers the state of the science on the ability of models to represent historical trends in the climate system. It also outlines robust procedures that should be used when comparing modeled and observed trends and how to move beyond quantification into understanding. Finally, this review discusses cutting-edge methods for identifying sources of discrepancies and the importance of future confrontations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

An Automatic Light Rain Detection Algorithm on NASA MPLNET Lidar Observations in the Frame of WMO GALION Project

The water cycle strongly influences life on Earth. In particular, the precipitation modifies the atmospheric column thermodynamics through the process of evaporation and serves as a proxy for latent heat modulation. For this reason, a correct precipitation parameterization (especially low-intensity precipitation) at global scale, bedsides improving our understanding of the hydrological cycle, it is crucial to reduce the associated uncertainty of the global climate models to correctly forecast future scenarios, i.e. to apply fast mitigation strategies. In this study we developed an algorithm to automatically detect precipitation from lidar measurements obtained by the National and Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA) Micropulse lidar network (MPLNET) permanent observational site in Goddard. The algorithm, once full operational, will deliver in Near Real Time (latency 1.5h) a new rain mask product that will be publicly available on MPLNET website as part of the new Version 3 Level 1.5 data. The methodology, based on an image processing technique, can detect only light precipitation events (defined by intensity and duration) as the morphological filters used through the detection process are applied on the lidar volume depolarization ratio range corrected composite images, i.e. heavy rain events are unusable as the lidar signal is completely extinguished after few meters in the precipitation or no signal detected because of the water accumulated on the receiver optics. Results from the algorithm, besides filling a gap in precipitation and virga detection by radars, are of particular interest for the scientific community because will help to better understand long-term aerosol-cloud interactions and aerosol atmospheric removal (scavenging effect) by rain as multi-year database being available for several MPLNET permanent observational sites across the globe. Moreover, we developed the automatic algorithm at Universitat Politecnica de Catalunya (UPC) Barcelona, the unique permanent observation station member of MPLNET and the European Aerosol Lidar Network (EARLINET) In the future the algorithm can be then easily applied to any other lidar and/or ceilometer network infrastructure in the frame of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Global Aerosol Watch (GAW) aerosol lidar observation network (GALION)

Simone Lolli↗

Aerosol-Ice Formation Closure Pilot Study (AEROICSTUDY) Field Campaign Report

The aerosol-ice formation closure pilot study (AEROICESTUDY) was a field campaign conducted at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory from October 7 to 28, 2019. The purpose of this campaign was to test a field observational approach for conducting an aerosol-ice formation closure study. In other words, the goal was to predict the number of ice nucleating particles (INPs) from the measurements of physical and chemical aerosol properties and compare those to measured INP number concentrations. This project was motivated by the fact that the aerosol community has widely conducted aerosol radiative closure, aerosol-cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and CCN-droplet closure studies to test the physical models and parameterizations that cloud-resolving and climate models rely on to perform reliable simulations of the Earth system and energy budget. However, very few closure studies related to INPs have been conducted, and to our knowledge, none using robust, size-resolved, ambient aerosol composition measurements as model inputs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aerosol-Ice Formation Closure Pilot Study (AEROICSTUDY) Field Campaign Report

The aerosol-ice formation closure pilot study (AEROICESTUDY) was a field campaign conducted at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility at the Southern Great Plains (SGP) observatory from October 7 to 28, 2019. The purpose of this campaign was to test a field observational approach for conducting an aerosol-ice formation closure study. In other words, the goal was to predict the number of ice nucleating particles (INPs) from the measurements of physical and chemical aerosol properties and compare those to measured INP number concentrations. This project was motivated by the fact that the aerosol community has widely conducted aerosol radiative closure, aerosol-cloud condensation nuclei (CCN), and CCN-droplet closure studies to test the physical models and parameterizations that cloud-resolving and climate models rely on to perform reliable simulations of the Earth system and energy budget. However, very few closure studies related to INPs have been conducted, and to our knowledge, none using robust, size-resolved, ambient aerosol composition measurements as model inputs.

aerosol-ice formation↗

Investigating the impact of aerosol deposition on snowmelt over the Greenland Ice Sheet using a large-ensemble kernel

Accelerating surface melt on the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has led to a doubling of Greenland's contribution to global sea level rise during recent decades. Black carbon (BC), dust, and other light-absorbing impurities (LAIs) darken the surface and enhance snowmelt by boosting the absorption of solar energy. It is therefore important for coupled aerosol–climate and ice sheet models to include snow darkening effects from LAI, and yet most do not. In this study, we conduct several thousand simulations with the Community Land Model (CLM) component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to characterize changes in melt runoff due to variations in the amount, timing, and nature (wet or dry) of BC deposition on the GrIS. From this large matrix of simulations, we develop a kernel relating runoff to the location, month, year (from 2006 to 2015), and magnitudes of BC concentration within precipitation and dry deposition flux. BC deposition during June–August causes the largest increase in annually integrated runoff, but winter deposition events also exert large (roughly half as great) runoff perturbations due to reexposure of impurities at the snow surface during summer melt. Current BC deposition fluxes simulated with the atmosphere component of CESM induce a climatological-mean increase in GrIS-wide runoff of ∼ 8 Gt yr −1 , or +6.8 % relative to a paired simulation without BC deposition. We also provide linear equations that relate the increase in total runoff to GrIS-wide wet and dry BC deposition fluxes. It is our hope that the runoff kernel and simple equations provided here can be used to extend the utility of state-of-the-art aerosol models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simple Tool for Aircraft Noise-Reduction Route Design

The design of arrival and departure routes from an airport has to balance the conflicting requirements of fuel efficiency, airport capacity utilization and community emission and noise considerations. The commonly used tools for aircraft noise assessment are the FAA’s Integrated Noise Model (INM) and Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT). These tools are suitable to generate precise noise contours. However, they are harder to use with other tools for route design optimization involving evaluation of a large number of aircraft trajectories. A simplified aircraft noise computation tool, named AIRNOISE, is developed for preliminary aircraft noise-reduction route design in this paper. AIRNOISE computes aircraft noise based on the same SAE-AIR-1845 procedures used by INM and AEDT. AIRNOISE does not consider components related to terrain and atmosphere adjustments. As a result, it is not only computationally efficient but also flexible to use for customized aircraft profiles. The aircraft noise results are compared with the FAA’s AEDT2b and show that the level of accuracy achieved by AIRNOISE can be used to reduce the number of route design options to a small number from a large pool for subsequent accurate analysis by INM.

Li, Jinhua↗

The Impact of Pixel Size on the Characterization of Deep Convective Clouds for Calibration

The NASA CERES project provides the scientific community the observed TOA SW and LW fluxes for climate monitoring and climate model validation. CERES utilizes hourly geostationary imager derived broadband fluxes, which rely on the channel radiances and associated cloud retrievals, to estimate the broadband fluxes between CERES observations. This requires stable imager visible channel calibration, which the CERES project verifies by utilizing deep convective clouds (DCC) as an invariant Earth target. GSICS, which is an international collaboration, is also evaluating the DCC invariant target calibration methodology to provide consistent calibration coefficients across geostationary imagers anchored to the Aqua-MODIS calibration reference. Tropical DCC are the brightest, coldest, most Lambertian, top of the atmosphere Earth targets. The DCC invariant target calibration methodology relies on a large ensemble of tropical DCC-identified pixel-level reflectances, which are histogrammed to find the mode reflectance of the probability density function (PDF). The imager stability is monitored by tracking the monthly DCC PDF mode reflectance over time. Radiometric scaling is accomplished by ratioing the GEO and VIIRS DCC mode reflectance values. The PDF shape and mode dependency on sensor pixel resolution, which varies among sensors, is unknown. This study will characterize the impact of pixel resolution on the DCC PDFs by aggregating Landsat 30-m pixel reflectances into various coarser pixel resolutions ranging from 100-m to 4-km, and comparing the corresponding PDF statistics. This analysis will assist in improving the uncertainty in a DCC-based intercalibration between instruments with different pixel resolutions.

Conor Haney↗

Responses of Microbes to Modeled Space Radiation

The built environment of spaceships is host to a microbial community that affects crew and craft alike. While the static composition of this community has been characterized and its temporal dynamics examined, the mechanisms controlling its make-up and evolutionary trajectory are not understood. Systematic analyses of microbial diversity show consistent patterns in community composition and function. Understanding these patterns' ecological origins remains a significant challenge, as it requires connecting processes at varying temporal and spatial scales. However, it is clear that the state and trajectories of microbial communities are in-part determined by their physical environment. In this regard, the spaceflight environment includes numerous interacting factors that differentiate it from Earth environments, including an altered atmospheric composition, reduced gravity (and thus altered fluid dynamics), and increased ionizing radiation. These factors impart selective pressures on microbial communities that affect their evolutionary trajectories and thus the risks and benefits these communities represent to crew and craft. The radiation environment of space leads to chronic exposure to low doses and is difficult to mimic on Earth. Thus, little is known about how microbial communities in spacecraft will respond and evolve. Therefore, given the limitations of existing studies, we aim to empirically determine how exposure to low doses of ionizing radiation for thousands of cell divisions affects rates of mutation accumulation in bacteria and the trajectory of their evolution. In this way, we will provide a critical set of data for designing safe and robust space missions. Here we discuss our progress towards this aim, including the construction of exposure facilities, our culturing and analysis approach, and preliminary data.

radiation↗

A Hindcast Approach to Diagnosing the Equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue SST Bias in CESM1

An ensemble seasonal hindcast approach is used to investigate the development of the equatorial Pacific Ocean cold sea surface temperature (SST) bias and its characteristic annual cycle in the Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1). In observations, eastern equatorial Pacific SSTs exhibit a warm phase during boreal spring and a cold phase during late boreal summer–autumn. The CESM1 climatology shows a cold bias during both warm and cold phases. In our hindcasts, the cold bias during the cold phase develops in less than 6 months, whereas the cold bias during the warm phase takes longer to emerge. The fast-developing cold-phase cold bias is associated with too-strong vertical advection and easterly wind stress over the eastern equatorial region. The antecedent boreal summer easterly wind anomalies also appear in atmosphere-only simulations, indicating that the errors are intrinsic to the atmosphere component. For the slower-developing warm-phase cold bias, we find that the too-cold SSTs over the equatorial region are associated with a slowly evolving upward displacement of subsurface ocean zonal currents and isotherms that can be traced to the ocean component.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Common Probe Design Study and Follow-On Activities

The Common Probe Study was funded by the NASA's Planetary Science Division in the Science Mission Directorate in 2018 to investigate the feasibility of a common aeroshell design for atmospheric probe missions at Venus, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune. The study involved 4 NASA Centers: Ames Research Center, Goddard Space Flight Center, Langley Research Center, and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The common aeroshell design that was studied was a 400 kg, 1.5 m diameter, 45-degree sphere cone shape with a high density heatshield material (Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environments Technology, or HEEET) and a parachute system to extract the descent vehicle. This size of aeroshell could accommodate a descent vehicle of 0.75 m diameter, which could encompass both Tier 1 and Tier 2 science instruments at each of the 5 destinations. Study methodology: First, a notional payload of instruments for each destination was defined based on the top priority measurements indicated by the Planetary Science Decadal Survey. Steep and shallow entry flight path angles (EFPA) were defined for each planet based on qualification and operational g-load limits for current, state-of-the-art instruments. Interplanetary trajectories were then identified that bounded the EFPA range.Next, 3-DoF simulations for entry trajectories were run using the entry state vectors from the interplanetary trajectories. Conical ribbon parachutes were sized based on heatshield separation dynamics. Aero-heating correlations were used to generate stagnation point convective and radiative heat flux profiles. High fidelity thermal response models for various TPS materials were used to size stagnation point thicknesses, with margins based on previous studies. Backshell TPS masses were assumed based on scaled heat fluxes from the heatshield and also from previous mission concepts.Based on these analyses, we have found that the common design is applicable for atmospheric probe missions for 4 out of the 5 destinations. Because of the unique gravity well for Jupiter, the entry environments are more severe resulting in heat loads an order of magnitude higher than for the other destinations.The next step is to determine what follow-on activities NASA should engage in. A questionnaire for the atmospheric probe community has been developed, with a focus on what size of aeroshell should be further analyzed (smaller or same diameter), and what incentives would make using such an aeroshell, if assembled and available, desirable to mission proposers.Preliminary results from this questionnaire will be presented.

Hwang, Helen H.↗

Enhanced hydrological extremes in the western United States under global warming through the lens of water vapor wave activity

Understanding how regional hydrological extremes would respond to warming is a grand challenge to the community of climate change research. To address this challenge, we construct an analysis framework based on column integrated water vapor (CWV) wave activity to diagnose the wave component of the hydrological cycle that contributes to hydrological extremes. By applying the analysis to the historical and future climate projections from the CMIP5 models, we found that the wet-versus-dry disparity of daily net precipitation along a zonal band can increase at a super Clausius-Clapeyron rate due to the enhanced stirring length of wave activity at the poleward flank of the mean storm track. The local variant of CWV wave activity reveals the unique characteristics of atmospheric rivers (ARs) in terms of their transport function, enhanced mixing and hydrological cycling rate (HC). Under RCP8.5, the local moist wave activity increases by ~40% over the northeastern Pacific by the end of the 21st century, indicating more ARs hitting the west coast, giving rise to a ~20% increase in the related hydrological extremes - $ despite a weakening of the local HC.

Lu, Jian (ORCID:0000000182456930)↗

Modelling water fluxes in plants: from tissues to biosphere

Summary Models of plant water fluxes have evolved from studies focussed on understanding the detailed structure and functioning of specific components of the soil–plant–atmosphere ( SPA ) continuum to architectures often incorporated inside eco‐hydrological and terrestrial biosphere ( TB ) model schemes. We review here the historical evolution of this field, examine the basic structure of a simplified individual‐based model of plant water transport, highlight selected applications for specific ecological problems and conclude by examining outstanding issues requiring further improvements in modelling vegetation water fluxes. We particularly emphasise issues related to the scaling from tissue‐level traits to individual‐based predictions of water transport, the representation of nonlinear and hysteretic behaviour in soil–xylem hydraulics and the need to incorporate knowledge of hydraulics within broader frameworks of plant ecological strategies and their consequences for predicting community demography and dynamics.

Mencuccini, Maurizio↗