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Moisture analysis from radiosonde and microwave spectrometer data

A method for analysis of the horizontal and vertical distributions of the moisture field utilizing satellite, upper air and surface data is proposed in this paper. A brief overview of the microwave sensors on board Nimbus 5 and 6 is also presented. A technique is provided utilizing the radiosonde data sets to calibrate the satellite field of total precipitable water. Next, the calibrated satellite-derived field is utilized along with ship and coastal reports of moisture, and a vertical structure function to generate vertical distribution of moisture and thus provide a mapping of specific humidity at several levels in the troposphere. Utilizing these procedures, analyses for several case studies were performed. The resultant maps show detailed distribution of specific humidity along with some interesting climatological features. A reasonable acceptance of the available aerological data sets by the analysis scheme is demonstrated.

Haydu, K. J.↗

Evaluation of the ERBE scene identification algo-rithm

The sensitivity of the radiation budget parameters and the scene selection process to different factors is evaluated. The use of ERB-7 CLE models provides instantaneous albedo and longwave flux values which are in essential agreement in the 70 deg cutoff case with those from the SAB method. The increase in albedo with increasing satellite zenith angle cutoff is not apparent at the target area level for different surface types. GOES models seem to show an increase in instantaneous albedo at the global level with satellite zenith angle of the same nature as the ERB-7 models investigated in a previous report and are, therefore, probably not an improvement. The use of recently derived NCLE models did not make a noticeable change in the budget parameters; but the cloud classification did show hemispherical differences and caused a day-night readjustment of cloudiness amounts. Preliminary results for an additional month (December 1979) indicate good agreement between the SAB and MLE methods. Additional work is required to establish the agreement for all seasons. Comparison of derived cloud amounts with other data sets such as THIR/TOMS indicates good zonal agreement. Sampling adequacy investigations at different temporal averaging intervals with the SAB method, indicate large uncertainties in small time average cases. For a 6-day averaging period, sampling is very poor with only 23% of the globe contributing toward the global mean albedo. Effect of modifications to the MLE procedure seem to have little effect on the derived budget quantities in an averaged sense. Significant differences in the flux values due to differences in scene selection are apparent in individual target areas studies. A modification of the MLE procedure to mimic the perpendicular bisector algorithm indicated no effect on the gross radiation budget quantities.

Vemury, S. K.↗

Functional reasoning in diagnostic problem solving

This work is one facet of an integrated approach to diagnostic problem solving for aircraft and space systems currently under development. The authors are applying a method of modeling and reasoning about deep knowledge based on a functional viewpoint. The approach recognizes a level of device understanding which is intermediate between a compiled level of typical Expert Systems, and a deep level at which large-scale device behavior is derived from known properties of device structure and component behavior. At this intermediate functional level, a device is modeled in three steps. First, a component decomposition of the device is defined. Second, the functionality of each device/subdevice is abstractly identified. Third, the state sequences which implement each function are specified. Given a functional representation and a set of initial conditions, the functional reasoner acts as a consequence finder. The output of the consequence finder can be utilized in diagnostic problem solving. The paper also discussed ways in which this functional approach may find application in the aerospace field.

Sticklen, Jon↗

A study of navigation in virtual space

In the physical world, man has developed efficient methods for navigation and orientation. These methods are dependent on the high-fidelity stimuli presented by the environment. When placed in a virtual world which cannot offer stimuli of the same quality due to computing constraints and immature technology, tasks requiring the maintenance of position and orientation knowledge become laborious. In this paper, we present a representative set of techniques based on principles of navigation derived from real world analogs including human and avian navigation behavior and cartography. A preliminary classification of virtual worlds is presented based on the size of the world, the density of objects in the world, and the level of activity taking place in the world. We also summarize an informal study we performed to determine how the tools influenced the subjects' navigation strategies and behavior. We conclude that principles extracted from real world navigation aids such as maps can be seen to apply in virtual environments.

Darken, Rudy↗

Comparison of Retracking Algorithms Using Airborne Radar and Laser Altimeter Measurements of the Greenland Ice Sheet

This paper compares four continental ice sheet radar altimeter retracking algorithms using airborne radar and laser altimeter data taken over the Greenland ice sheet in 1991. The refurbished Advanced Application Flight Experiment (AAFE) airborne radar altimeter has a large range window and stores the entire return waveform during flight. Once the return waveforms are retracked, or post-processed to obtain the most accurate altitude measurement possible, they are compared with the high-precision Airborne Oceanographic Lidar (AOL) altimeter measurements. The AAFE waveforms show evidence of varying degrees of both surface and volume scattering from different regions of the Greenland ice sheet. The AOL laser altimeter, however, obtains a return only from the surface of the ice sheet. Retracking altimeter waveforms with a surface scattering model results in a good correlation with the laser measurements in the wet and dry-snow zones, but in the percolation region of the ice sheet, the deviation between the two data sets is large due to the effects of subsurface and volume scattering. The Martin et al model results in a lower bias than the surface scattering model, but still shows an increase in the noise level in the percolation zone. Using an Offset Center of Gravity algorithm to retrack altimeter waveforms results in measurements that are only slightly affected by subsurface and volume scattering and, despite a higher bias, this algorithm works well in all regions of the ice sheet. A cubic spline provides retracked altitudes that agree with AOL measurements over all regions of Greenland. This method is not sensitive to changes in the scattering mechanisms of the ice sheet and it has the lowest noise level and bias of all the retracking methods presented.

Ferraro, Ellen J.↗

Spontaneous Raman Scattering Diagnostics: Applications in Practical Combustion Systems

In this chapter, the recent advancements and practical aspects of laser SRS diagnostics have been reviewed wi til regards to applications in practical combustion systems. Clearly, SRS represents a theoretically and experimentally mature diagnostic technology that has become an essential tool for multiscalar measurements in turbulent combustion at elevated pressures. Today, time-, space-, spectrally, and even polarization-resolved S RS diagnostics is at hand, with aid from recent innovations in theoretical and technological developments on electro-optical or electromechanical devices. Whilst a linear increase in SRS signals can be expected in high-pressure systems (this is perhaps one of the most important advantages for using SRS in high-pressure systems), there are practical (often severe) restrictions associated with pressurized vessels, due mainly to the limited degree of optical access. This narrows ti,e available choice of diagnostics that can be employed at any given time. Point-wise SRS diagnostics provides the highest accuracy on the chemical species and temperature measurements, and will continue to remain a vital approach for the study in such harsh environments. The practical design considerations and hands-on set-up guide for SRS diagnostics provided in this chapter are rarely presented elsewhere. Although the second-harmonic Nd:YAG pulsed laser (532 nm), combined with pulse-stretching optics or the recently introduced White Cell-based laser, seems to be the most favored excitation source of choice by the research community, UV excitation will undoubtedly continue to be used on many occasions, and especially in sooting flames. Detection methods may be divided into ICCD-based nanosecond-gate detection or a rotary-chopper electromechanical shutter-based CCD array detection, and the levels of background flame emission in individual cases would determine this critical design choice. Here, a process of Raman signal calibration based on ti,e crosstalk matrix formalism was explained step-by-step. As tI,is process may be very time-consuming and expensive, a well-planned experimental approach (01' building a transferable calibration database or library (at least with in a user's own facility over a series of different testing and runs) is vitally important. Hands on advice on the design and construction of flow control systems for high pressure burner facilities were also presented.

Kojima, Jun↗

A Methodology to Assess the Capability of Engine Designs to Meet Closed-loop Performance and Operability Requirements

Designing a closed-loop controller for an engine requires balancing trade-offs between performance and operability of the system. One such trade-off is the relationship between the 95% response time and minimum high-pressure compressor (HPC) surge margin (SM) attained during acceleration from idle to takeoff power. Assuming a controller has been designed to meet some specification on response time and minimum HPC SM for a mid-life (nominal) engine, there is no guarantee that these limits will not be violated as the engine ages, particularly as it reaches the end of its life. A characterization for the uncertainty in this closed-loop system due to aging is proposed that defines elliptical boundaries to estimate worst-case performance levels for a given control design point. The results of this characterization can be used to identify limiting design points that bound the possible con- troller designs yielding transient results that do not exceed specified limits in response time or minimum HPC SM. This characterization involves performing Monte Carlo simulation of the closed-loop system with controller constructed for a set of trial design points and developing curve fits to describe the size and orientation of each ellipse; a binary search procedure is then employed that uses these fits to identify the limiting design point. The method is demonstrated through application to a generic turbofan engine model in closed- loop with a simplified controller; it is found that the limit for which each controller was designed was exceeded by less than 4.76%. Extension of the characterization to another trade-off, that between the maximum high-pressure turbine (HPT) entrance temperature and minimum HPC SM, showed even better results: the maximum HPT temperature was estimated within 0.76%. Because of the accuracy in this estimation, this suggests another limit that may be taken into consideration during design and analysis. It also demonstrates the extension of the characterization to other attributes that contribute to the performance or operability of the engine. Metrics are proposed that, together, provide information on the shape of the trade-off between response time and minimum HPC SM, and how much each varies throughout the life cycle, at the limiting design points. These metrics also facilitate comparison of the expected transient behavior for multiple engine models.

engine control↗

Using Digital and Web-Based Platforms to Enhance Nuclear Power Plant Knowledge Transfer - 20203

As the workforce ages, the loss of experienced personnel can result in a loss of important knowledge. Updating Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) research and guidance with the latest technology developments and operating experience is an important method to transfer knowledge between the retiring and incoming workforce. Studies suggest that the incoming workforce is accustomed to using digital and/or internet-based platforms to find information and may have a higher comfort with these types of platforms than they have with static, written reports. Additionally, the ease and speed of updating and delivering content through digital formats may offer an effective method for knowledge transfer and combining information from multiple reports into a single access point. EPRI has recently produced an online Decommissioning Hub available to members and is working on replicating the effort in the area of radioactive waste management called the Radwaste Web References. EPRI has extensive guidance in both disciplines. The Decommissioning Hub uses a wiki format to provide a platform that allows for both the updating of that guidance resulting from new research and new operating experiences, and combining related topical information from multiple reports. It also allows users to access the information based on key words and topical searches, and can be a tool for users to input experience to share with others. The Decommissioning Hub is accessed via a web-based portal and includes topical pages; experience summaries; a question and answer capability; and a smart search function of all EPRI decommissioning reports. Use of a wiki format allows users to input new experiences or modify existing experience summaries to add additional detail. EPRI moderates all content. The experience data base has been initially populated with information available in published EPRI reports and unpublished information currently available within EPRI. Moving forward, population of the database will continue with information available within the open literature, new information developed from current decommissioning projects, and user inputs. The web site became active in late 2017, and a major update will be issued in early 2020. Larger scale updates are planned biannually, and smaller-scale updates will occur continuously. Capturing and applying lessons learned from industry experiences is a hallmark of the global nuclear industry. This is even more important in the decommissioning technology area since very few plant staff have relevant experience and thus there is a steep learning curve. Moreover, decommissioning involves a number of complex, non-routine and specialized tasks. The web-accessible and searchable experience database provides an easy-to-use resource for capturing and disseminating practical experiences from completed and ongoing decommissioning projects. The EPRI Radwaste Web References will build upon the philosophy and objectives of the Radwaste Desk References that were published in the 1990's. The purpose of the original Radwaste Desk References was to provide nuclear power plant professionals with a how-to manual for managing radioactive waste. The Radwaste Web References will adopt this original purpose and will be a wiki type web site that provide fundamental practical and theoretical information, operating experience (OE), and information about advanced technologies and methods. As much as practicable, features that allow for interaction between users to share OE, best practices, and benchmarking will be added. Where they exist and are appropriate, the various EPRI Guidelines documents on radwaste topics will be updated and incorporated into the Radwaste Web References. The first Radwaste Web Reference will be on Low Level Waste Characterization and will build upon the EPRI Low Level Waste Characterization Guidelines (EPRI Report TR-107201, 1996) and will be available in 2020. The next Radwaste Web Reference will be on the topic of liquid radioactive waste processing and management, tentatively set for unveiling in 2021. This paper summarizes the EPRI's previous experiences with web-based platforms and future plans in this area. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Continual Learning for Production-Level Machine Learning in Particle Accelerators

Particle accelerators operate in complex environments where data distribution can change dynamically, leading to data drifts that significantly challenge Machine Learning (ML) models. These non-stationary conditions often cause ML models to deteriorate in performance, making it difficult to maintain reliable predictions in operation. The primary sources of data drifts are changes in accelerator settings and changes in equipment performance which cannot be measured directly. To bridge this gap between ML development and long-term deployment in operational settings, we identify key areas within particle accelerators where continual learning can help mitigate drift-induced performance degradation. We will provide a practical guide on selecting the appropriate method given resource constraints and desired stability plasticity trade offs. As a concrete example, we will present a real-world use case for anomaly detection to predict errant beams at the Spallation Neutron Source accelerator, where continual learning has been employed to demonstrate stable performance on drifting data streams. We will present practical challenges, lessons learned, and the results from the deployed ML model.

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗

Operational Probabilistic Tools for Solar Uncertainty (OPTSUN) (Final Project Report for DOE Solar Forecasting II Project)

Increasing levels of solar PV can challenge system operations and may require novel methods to operate the power system reliably and efficiently. Power system operating plans generally use deterministic forecasts, in which the variable energy resources are represented by the expected value for each interval of the decision horizon. Probabilistic forecasts are relatively new but have the potential to address the shortfalls of deterministic forecasts. However, understanding how best to use such forecasts is still a key gap in industry and was the focus of this project. The project had three workstreams. In a forecasting workstream, improvements were made to baseline probabilistic forecasts using a number of new approaches such as machine learning methods and improved input data. In a design workstream, advanced simulation tools used these forecasts to investigate newly proposed reserve determination methods. Lastly, in a demonstration workstream a scheduling management platform (SMP) was developed to leverage probabilistic forecasts in a modular and customizable manner. In order to study the benefits that could be accrued, the project team collaborated with three utility partners (Duke Energy, Southern Company and Hawaiian Electric) to deliver improved probabilistic forecasts for each region and to model each region in case studies using advanced production cost modeling tools. Different methods to determine operating reserve requirements from probabilistic forecasts were developed, simulated, and tested across each region. The benefits of using these newly proposed methods varied by utility, but, in general, using probabilistic forecasts as well as historical data to set the reserve requirements seems to improve reliability related results, with less risk of reserve or supply shortfalls. The cost implications were not always straightforward; in some cases the new methods could show a reduction in expected operating costs, but often the increase in reserves associated with better risk mitigation using probabilistic forecasts could result in an increase in operating costs in the simulations. The SMP tool was developed to process probabilistic forecasts from their initial receipt through to scheduling decisions. This open-source tool consists of several modules for scenario development, reserve requirements calculation, and visualization. The SMP tool was demonstrated to a wide range of operators and stakeholders at all three utilities and further improved based on their feedback. The tool will be available on www.epri.com/optsun. The proposed probabilistic information-based reserve determination approaches have the potential to be implemented by different regions to ensure an economic and reliable power system operation on power systems integrating increasing levels of variable renewable resources. The innovative yet practical methods developed in this project demonstrated tangible benefits from using probabilistic forecasts beyond just study-based assessments to include three unique balancing areas. The demonstrated benefits across the multiple utility environments, are expected to provide system operators in all regions the confidence required and a platform to adopt the new forecasting and operating methods.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Full event particle-level unfolding with variable-length latent variational diffusion

The measurements performed by particle physics experiments must account for the imperfect response of the detectors used to observe the interactions. One approach, unfolding, statistically adjusts the experimental data for detector effects. Recently, generative machine learning models have shown promise for performing unbinned unfolding in a high number of dimensions. However, all current generative approaches are limited to unfolding a fixed set of observables, making them unable to perform full-event unfolding in the variable dimensional environment of collider data. A novel modification to the variational latent diffusion model (VLD) approach to generative unfolding is presented, which allows for unfolding of high- and variable-dimensional feature spaces. The performance of this method is evaluated in the context of semi-leptonic t\bar{t} t t ‾ production at the Large Hadron Collider.

Shmakov, Alexander↗

Submarine exposure guideline recommendations for carbon dioxide based on the prenatal developmental effects of exposure in rats

Background To protect crewmember health, the U.S. Navy sets exposure limits for more than 200 components of submarine atmospheres. The addition of females to nuclear submarines required a reevaluation of these exposure limits, originally established for all‐male crews. In the case of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), the only available data suitable for deriving an exposure limit were from a 2010 study sponsored by the British Royal Navy that reported a debatable interpretation casting doubt on whether current U.S. Navy exposure limits served to protect fetal developmental health. Methods About 120 time‐mated female Sprague–Dawley rats (Crl: CD[SD]) were exposed to CO 2 at levels of 1.5%, 2.0%, 2.5%, and 3.0% from gestation days 6 to 20. Dams were euthanized and fetuses were examined. Results Findings with implications for exposure limits for CO 2 during pregnancy were an increased mean litter proportion of early resorptions and a lower mean litter proportion of viable fetuses in the 3.0% CO 2 group. Conclusion The results yield a No Observed Adverse Effect Level (NOAEL) of 2.5% and a Lowest Observed Adverse Effect Level (LOAEL) of 3.0%. The results reasonably allow a point of departure of 2.5% CO 2 for deriving an exposure recommendation. An interspecies uncertainty factor was applied to derive a recommended 90‐day continuous exposure limit (CEL) of 0.8% for CO 2 . As reproductive endpoints that are developmental in nature must be assumed to result from a single exposure at a critical point during gestation, it is further recommended that the 24‐hr emergency exposure limit (EEL) also be 0.8%.

Howard, William R.↗

Topological structure of complex predictions

Abstract Current complex prediction models are the result of fitting deep neural networks, graph convolutional networks or transducers to a set of training data. A key challenge with these models is that they are highly parameterized, which makes describing and interpreting the prediction strategies difficult. We use topological data analysis to transform these complex prediction models into a simplified topological view of the prediction landscape. The result is a map of the predictions that enables inspection of the model results with more specificity than dimensionality-reduction methods such as tSNE and UMAP. The methods scale up to large datasets across different domains. We present a case study of a transformer-based model previously designed to predict expression levels of a piece of DNA in thousands of genomic tracks. When the model is used to study mutations in the BRCA1 gene, our topological analysis shows that it is sensitive to the location of a mutation and the exon structure of BRCA1 in ways that cannot be found with tools based on dimensionality reduction. Moreover, the topological framework offers multiple ways to inspect results, including an error estimate that is more accurate than model uncertainty. Further studies show how these ideas produce useful results in graph-based learning and image classification.

Computer Science↗

Langevin dynamics of generalized spins as SU( N ) coherent states

Classical models of spin systems traditionally retain only the dipole moments, but a quantum spin state will frequently have additional structure. Spins of magnitude S have N = 2⁢S + 1 levels. Alternatively, the spin state is fully characterized by a set of N 2 - 1 local physical observables, which we interpret as generalized spin components. For example, a spin with S = 1 has three dipole components and five quadrupole components. Further, these components evolve under a generalization of the classical Landau-Lifshitz dynamics, which can be extended with noise and damping terms. In this paper, we reformulate the dynamical equations of motion as a Langevin dynamics of SU(N) coherent states in the Schrödinger picture. This viewpoint is especially useful as the basis for an efficient numerical method to sample spin configurations in thermal equilibrium and to simulate the relaxation and driven motion of topological solitons. To illustrate the approach, we simulate a nonequilibrium relaxation process that creates CP 2 skyrmions, which are topological defects with both dipole and quadrupole character.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Advising Big Data Transfer Over Dedicated Connections Based on Profiling Optimization

Big data transfer in next-generation scientific applications is currently commonly carried out over dedicated channels in high-performance networks (HPNs), where transport protocols play a critical role in maximizing application-level throughput. Optimizing the performance of these protocols is challenging: i) transport protocols perform differently in various network environments, and the protocol choice is not straightforward; ii) even for a given protocol in a given environment, different parameter settings of the protocol may lead to significantly different performance and oftentimes the default setting does not yield the best performance. However, it is prohibitively time-consuming to conduct exhaustive transport profiling due to the large parameter space. In this paper, we propose a PRofiling Optimization Based DAta Transfer Advisor (ProbData) to help end users determine the most effective transport method with the most appropriate parameter settings to achieve satisfactory performance for big data transfer over dedicated connections in HPNs. ProbData employs a fast profiling scheme based on the Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation algorithm, namely, FastProf, to accelerate the exploration of the optimal operational zones of various transport methods to improve profiling efficiency. We first present a theoretical background of the optimized profiling approach in ProbData and then detail its design and implementation. The advising procedure and performance benefits of FastProf and ProbData are illustrated and evaluated by both extensive emulations based on real-life performance measurements and experiments over various physical connections in existing production HPNs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Development of a Library for Conducting Monte Carlo Tallies on Heterogeneous Systems

A library is introduced that enables users to conduct Monte Carlo tallies on heterogeneous computing systems. The library can be built with or linked to a Monte Carlo transport code to provide tally capabilities for the project. The library provides a set of tools and an interface for constructing tallies that can be computed on CPUs or GPUs regardless of where the sample data was generated. The library can be incorporated into existing Monte Carlo transport codes at both the research and production level with minimal intrusion into the transport code. The tally library is capable of computing a variety of tallies including track-length histogram (mesh) tallies, collisionbased kernel density estimators, functional expansion tallies, eigenvalue sensitivity coefficients via iterated fission probability, and sensitivities of reaction rates or adjoint-weighted quantities via differential operator sampling. The parallelization methods are discussed and speedups are shown for 2-D and 3-D problems with comparisons to both the tally library CPU implementations as well as the tally capabilities in the host transport code. Performance results and examples are shown for MCNP, MCATK, and OpenMC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Glass Property-Composition Models Update for use in Direct Feed High-Level Waste Flowsheet Development: EWG2.6

A set of preliminary glass property models and constraints were developed and augmented by models from literature for use in design of direct-feed high-level waste (DFHLW) glasses for flowsheet evaluation, testing, and design of the Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) high-level waste (HLW) Facility. These models and constraints are meant to be used as a place-holder while glass property-composition data gaps are filled and final plant operating models are developed. This report describes the motivation and intended use of the models, the compilation of data, model fitting and selection, methods to apply the models and constraints in glass design and offers example calculations demonstrating their intended use.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Simultaneous estimation of multiple eigenvalues with short-depth quantum circuit on early fault-tolerant quantum computers

We introduce a multi-modal, multi-level quantum complex exponential least squares (MM-QCELS) method to simultaneously estimate multiple eigenvalues of a quantum Hamiltonian on early fault-tolerant quantum computers. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates that the algorithm exhibits Heisenberg-limited scaling in terms of circuit depth and total cost. Notably, the proposed quantum circuit utilizes just one ancilla qubit, and with appropriate initial state conditions, it achieves significantly shorter circuit depths compared to circuits based on quantum phase estimation (QPE). Numerical results suggest that compared to QPE, the circuit depth can be reduced by around two orders of magnitude under several settings for estimating ground-state and excited-state energies of certain quantum systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗