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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,405 records · Page 78
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Data-Driven Multiscale Modeling for Predicting Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of 316L Stainless Steel

We have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2019

A NASA Supply Chain Beyond Low Earth Orbit: Explore Moon to Mars

Presentation will highlight the Space Shuttle Program Lessons Learned with a simulation of the complexity, volatility and multi-functional relationships of the supplier base followed by a review of a key element in the NASA KSC Supply Chain/Logistics Strategic Roadmap to include supply chain resiliency modeling as impacted by 3D Printing technology maturation and campaign-level network flow modeling for logistics nodal positioning of critical product needed to support space operations and In-Space Manufacturing beyond Low Earth Orbit.

Supply Chain Analytics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sources of Uncertainty in Ultrasonic Phase-Based Assessment of Interfacial Stiffness in Adhesive Joints

Quantitative nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of adhesive joint strength is critical for certifying fastener-free bonded aerospace structures. Unfortunately, available adhesive NDE approaches are only suitable for detecting gross defects and delamination and cannot reliably detect variations in strength in intact bonds. Intact (i.e., nominally defect free) bonds are challenging to inspect because they, by definition, contain no macroscopic defects that would produce a strong NDE signature. Even in the absence of obvious defects, however, bond strength can vary substantially due to factors such as contamination, variations in the adhesive cure processes, and environmental exposure. For ultrasonic bond inspections, the effect of interactions from an imperfect adhesive interface are subtle and may include changes in the frequency content or phase of the ultrasonic signal. The bond condition can be deduced from these subtle changes in the acoustic response using an accompanying physics-based model of adhesive joint interaction. For example, researchers have used the spring network adhesion model of Baik and Thompson [1] to determine the interfacial stiffness of the joint from its ultrasonic response (e.g., [2]). This interfacial stiffness metric describes the bonds resistance to separation between the adhesive and adherent and has shown a strong correlation with joint strength. In this study, interfacial stiffness is assessed using the ultrasonic phase change associated with bond interaction in varying bond conditions. The phase change is measured precisely using a phase-locked-loop instrument over a swept range of frequencies. The phase transition at resonance, where the bond thickness is half the acoustic wavelength, produces a unique signature with which to fit a physics-based model. Interfacial stiffness is determined by minimizing the difference between the theoretical and experimental phase response. Experimental results are presented for glass specimens bonded with aerospace adhesives and a sensitivity analysis is performed to examine the effects of parameters that may be uncertain in the industrial inspection environment – namely bond thickness, adhesive and adherent properties, and porosity. The results are a first step toward an uncertainty quantified version of the measurement technique, show correlation between interfacial stiffness and bond strength, and are another key step toward maturing this approach for use in complex materials and joint geometries. [1] Baik, J.M. and Thompson, R.B., 1984. “Ultrasonic scattering from imperfect interfaces: a quasi-static model”. Journal of Nondestructive Evaluation, 4. [2] Haldren, H.A., Perey, D.F., Yost, W.T., Cramer, K.E., and Gupta, M.C., 2019. “Swept-frequency ultrasonic phase evaluation of adhesive bonding in tri-layer structures”. Journal of the Acoustical Society of America, 145.

Matt Webster↗
DOE OSTI2023

Dynamics of streamflow permanence in a headwater network: Insights from catchment-scale model simulations

The hillslope and channel dynamics that govern streamflow permanence in headwater systems have important implications for ecosystem functioning and downstream water quality. Recent advancements in process-based, semi-distributed hydrologic models that build upon empirical studies of streamflow permanence in well-monitored headwater catchments show promise for characterizing the dynamics of streamflow permanence in headwater systems. However, few process-based models consider the continuum of hillslope-stream network connectivity as a control on streamflow permanence in headwater systems. The objective of this study was to expand a process-based, catchment-scale hydrologic model to better understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of headwater streamflow permanence and to identify controls of streamflow expansion and contraction in a headwater network. Further, we aimed to develop an approach that enhanced the fidelity of model simulations, yet required little additional data, with the intent that the model might be later transferred to catchments with limited long-term and spatially explicit measurements. This approach facilitated network-scale estimates of the controls of streamflow expansion and contraction, albeit with higher degrees of uncertainty in individual reaches due to data constraints. Our model simulated that streamflow permanence was highly dynamic in first-order reaches with steep slopes and variable contributing areas. The simulated stream network length ranged from nearly 98±2% of the geomorphic channel extent during wet periods to nearly 50±10% during dry periods. The model identified a discharge threshold of approximately 1 mm d –1 , above which the rate of streamflow expansion decreases by nearly an order of magnitude, indicating a lack of sensitivity of streamflow expansion to hydrologic forcing during high-flow periods. Overall, we demonstrate that process-based, catchment-scale models offer important insights on the controls of streamflow permanence, despite uncertainties and limitations of the model. We encourage researchers to increase data collection efforts and develop benchmarks to better evaluate such models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2010

Random vs. Combinatorial Methods for Discrete Event Simulation of a Grid Computer Network

This study compared random and t-way combinatorial inputs of a network simulator, to determine if these two approaches produce significantly different deadlock detection for varying network configurations. Modeling deadlock detection is important for analyzing configuration changes that could inadvertently degrade network operations, or to determine modifications that could be made by attackers to deliberately induce deadlock. Discrete event simulation of a network may be conducted using random generation, of inputs. In this study, we compare random with combinatorial generation of inputs. Combinatorial (or t-way) testing requires every combination of any t parameter values to be covered by at least one test. Combinatorial methods can be highly effective because empirical data suggest that nearly all failures involve the interaction of a small number of parameters (1 to 6). Thus, for example, if all deadlocks involve at most 5-way interactions between n parameters, then exhaustive testing of all n-way interactions adds no additional information that would not be obtained by testing all 5-way interactions. While the maximum degree of interaction between parameters involved in the deadlocks clearly cannot be known in advance, covering all t-way interactions may be more efficient than using random generation of inputs. In this study we tested this hypothesis for t = 2, 3, and 4 for deadlock detection in a network simulation. Achieving the same degree of coverage provided by 4-way tests would have required approximately 3.2 times as many random tests; thus combinatorial methods were more efficient for detecting deadlocks involving a higher degree of interactions. The paper reviews explanations for these results and implications for modeling and simulation.

Kuhn, D. Richard↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting critical heat flux with uncertainty quantification and domain generalization using conditional variational autoencoders and deep neural networks

Deep generative models (DGMs) can generate synthetic data samples that closely resemble the original dataset, addressing data scarcity. In this work, we developed a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) to augment critical heat flux (CHF) data used for the 2006 Groeneveld lookup table. To compare with traditional methods, a fine-tuned deep neural network (DNN) regression model was evaluated on the same dataset. Both models achieved small mean absolute relative errors, with the CVAE showing more favorable results. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) was performed using repeated CVAE sampling and DNN ensembling. The DNN ensemble improved performance over the baseline, while the CVAE maintained consistent results with less variability and higher confidence. Both models achieved small errors inside and outside the training domain, with slightly larger errors outside. Altogether, the CVAE performed better than the DNN in predicting CHF and exhibited better uncertainty behavior.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Multiparameter Estimation in Networked Quantum Sensors

We introduce a general model for a network of quantum sensors, and we use this model to consider the question: When can entanglement between the sensors, and/or global measurements, enhance the precision with which the network can measure a set of unknown parameters? We rigorously answer this question by presenting precise theorems proving that for a broad class of problems there is, at most, a very limited intrinsic advantage to using entangled states or global measurements. Moreover, for many estimation problems separable states and local measurements are optimal, and can achieve the ultimate quantum limit on the estimation uncertainty. This immediately implies that there are broad conditions under which simultaneous estimation of multiple parameters cannot outperform individual, independent estimations. Our results apply to any situation in which spatially localized sensors are unitarily encoded with independent parameters, such as when estimating multiple linear or non-linear optical phase shifts in quantum imaging, or when mapping out the spatial profile of an unknown magnetic field. We conclude by showing that entangling the sensors can enhance the estimation precision when the parameters of interest are global properties of the entire network.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

Lyapunov-Based Anomaly Detection in Highly-Clustered Networks

Network formation models explain the dynamics of the structure of connections using mechanisms that operate under different principles for establishing and removing edges. The Jackson–Rogers model is a generic framework that applies the principle of triadic closure to networks that grow by the addition of new nodes and new edges over time. Past work describes the limit distribution of the in-degree of the nodes based on a continuous-time approximation. Here, we introduce a discrete-time approach of the dynamics of the in- and out-degree distributions of a variation of the model. Furthermore, we characterize the limit distributions and the expected value of the average degree as equilibria, and prove that the equilibria are asymptotically stable. Finally, we use the stability properties of the model to propose a detection criterion for anomalies in the edge formation process.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterizing Reactive Transport Behavior in a Three-Dimensional Discrete Fracture Network

While several studies have linked network and in-fracture scale properties to conservative transport behavior in subsurface fractured media, studies on reactive transport cases remain relatively underdeveloped. In this study, we explore the behavior of an irreversible kinetic reaction during the interaction of two solute plumes, one consisting of species A and the other species B. When the plumes converge, these species react kinetically to form a new species C via A+B→kC. This reactive system is studied using a three-dimensional discrete fracture network (DFN) model coupled with reactive Lagrangian particle tracking. We find that the interplay of network topology and chemical properties of the reactive solutes controls reactive transport processes. The network topology drives species A and B together, and the chemical properties dictate whether and how quickly a reaction occurs. Results demonstrate that reactions are most likely to occur in high-velocity fractures that make up the network backbone. The interplay between species’ chemical properties and transport is characterized by a non-dimensional Damköhler (Da) number. We show that the spatial distribution of reactions is sensitive to Da, which subsequently influences late-time tailing behavior in outlet breakthrough time distributions. The results of this study provide initial insights into how an irreversible reaction occurs during transport in a fracture network, using a methodology that can be applied to study reactive transport in a wide range of fractured media environments and contexts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hygro-thermo-mechanical modeling of partially saturated air-entrained concrete containing dissolved salt and exposed to freeze-thaw cycles

Highlights: • A model for cyclic freezing of air-entrained concrete containing salt is proposed. • The freeze-thaw hysteresis, also including the effect of dissolved salt, is modeled. • The diffusive and convective flux of salt is coupled to the freeze-thaw processes. • The freeze-thaw response of air-entrained concrete containing salt is reproduced. • Liquid absorption from reservoirs increases with an increased concentration of salt. In cold regions, understanding the freeze-thaw behavior of air-entrained concrete is important for designing durable structures and assessing the remaining service life of existing structures. This study presents a hygro-thermo-mechanical multiphase model that describes the cyclic freeze-thaw behavior of partially saturated air-entrained concrete containing dissolved salt. An equilibrium and a non-equilibrium approach are adopted to model the ice formation, including the freeze-thaw hysteresis, inside the porous network. The model also considers the diffusive and convective transport of the dissolved salt coupled to the freeze-thaw processes. Two examples are presented to verify and highlight the capabilities of the model. The first example shows that the model is capable of reproducing the experimentally observed mechanical response of specimens containing NaC1-solutions of different concentrations. In the second example, a larger absorption of liquid from an external reservoir is obtained with an increasing salt concentration in the reservoir, which is consistent with experimental observations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

The future of Earth system prediction: Advances in model-data fusion

Predictions of the Earth system, such as weather forecasts and climate projections, require models informed by observations at many levels. Some methods for integrating models and observations are very systematic and comprehensive (e.g., data assimilation), and some are single purpose and customized (e.g., for model validation). We review current methods and best practices for integrating models and observations. We highlight how future developments can enable advanced heterogeneous observation networks and models to improve predictions of the Earth system (including atmosphere, land surface, oceans, cryosphere, and chemistry) across scales from weather to climate. As the community pushes to develop the next generation of models and data systems, there is a need to take a more holistic, integrated, and coordinated approach to models, observations, and their uncertainties to maximize the benefit for Earth system prediction and impacts on society.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

HotSpots: Failure Cascades on Heterogeneous Critical Infrastructure Networks

Critical Infrastructure Systems such as transportation, water and power grid systems are vital to our national security, economy, and public safety. Recent events, like the 2012 hurricane Sandy, show how the interdependencies among different CI networks lead to catastrophic failures among the whole system. Hence, analyzing these CI networks, and modeling failure cascades on them becomes a very important problem. However, traditional models either do not take multiple CIs or the dynamics of the system into account, or model it simplistically. In this paper, we study this problem using a heterogeneous network viewpoint. We first construct heterogeneous CI networks with multiple components using national-level datasets. Then we study novel failure maximization problems on these networks, to compute critical nodes in such systems. We then provide HotSpots, a scalable and effective algorithm for these problems, based on careful transformations. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on real CIS data from multiple US states, and show that our method HotSpots outperforms non-trivial baselines, gives meaningful results and that our approach gives immediate benefits in providing situational-awareness during large-scale failures.

Chen, Liangzhe↗
DOE OSTI2025

An investigation on machine learning predictive accuracy improvement and uncertainty reduction using VAE-based data augmentation

The confluence of ultrafast computers with large memory, rapid progress in Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, and the availability of large datasets place multiple engineering fields at the threshold of dramatic progress. However, a unique challenge in nuclear engineering is data scarcity because experimentation on nuclear systems is usually more expensive and time-consuming than most other disciplines. One potential way to resolve the data scarcity issue is deep generative learning, which uses certain ML models to learn the underlying distribution of existing data and generate synthetic samples that resemble the real data. In this way, one can significantly expand the dataset to train more accurate predictive ML models. In this study, our objective is to evaluate the effectiveness of data augmentation using variational autoencoder (VAE)-based deep generative models. We investigated whether the data augmentation leads to improved accuracy in the predictions of a deep neural network (DNN) model trained using the augmented data. Additionally, the DNN prediction uncertainties are quantified using Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) and conformal prediction (CP) to assess the impact on predictive uncertainty reduction. To test the proposed methodology, we used TRACE simulations of steady-state void fraction data based on the NUPEC Boiling Water Reactor Full-size Fine-mesh Bundle Test (BFBT) benchmark. Here, we found that augmenting the training dataset using VAEs has improved the DNN model’s predictive accuracy, improved the prediction confidence intervals, and reduced the prediction uncertainties.

Bayesian neural network↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Markov framework for generalized post-event systems recovery modeling: From single to multihazards

State-dependent models can be used to represent the system recovery process as a series of stochastic transitions from lower to higher functional states. However, the applications of these models have been limited in scope and there is a lack of a generalized recovery modeling framework. A generalized framework would permit a robust forecasting of systems and system-of-systems recovery under multiple hazards, and more broadly, would contribute to community disaster preparedness. This paper develops a generalized post hazard-event recovery modeling framework based on state-dependent Markov-type processes. We then apply the proposed framework to solve a spectrum of problems that range from hind-casting single-system recovery following a single hazard event to forecasting post-event trajectories under multiple hazards and modeling the recovery of a system-of-systems. First, Markov chains are used to hind-cast the observed recovery for a portfolio of buildings affected by the 2014 South Napa, California, earthquake. Next, Markov processes are used to formulate a parametric post hazard-event recovery model, which can be updated using Bayesian statistics when relevant datasets become available. Semi-Markov processes are then used to develop a more general model of single hazard recovery, which accounts for the intensity of the loading and level of damage caused by the event. Semi-Markov processes with non-renewal features are then used to account for multihazard interactions in a post-event recovery model, and applied to a case study that involves a community in Charleston, South Carolina. Lastly, Markov-type processes are combined with Bayesian networks to model the recovery of residential, commercial, educational, and industrial buildings (system-of-systems) following a hazard event. Overall, these applications demonstrate the versatility of the Markov framework towards handling recovery problems with varying levels of complexity.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Recovering the effects of subgrid heterogeneity in simulations of radionuclide transport through fractured media

Groundwater flow and contaminant transport through fractured media can be simulated using Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) models which provide a natural description of structural heterogeneity. However, this approach is computationally expensive, with the large number of intersecting fractures necessitated by many real-world applications requiring modeling simplifications to be made for calculations to be tractable. Upscaling methods commonly used for this purpose can result in some loss of local-scale variability in the groundwater flow velocity field, resulting in underestimation of particle travel times, transport resistance and retention in transport calculations. In this paper, a transport downscaling algorithm to recover the transport effects of heterogeneity is tested on a synthetic Brittle Fault Zone model, motivated by the problem of large safety assessment calculations for geological repositories of spent nuclear fuel. We show that the variability in the local-scale velocity field which is lost by upscaling can be recovered by sampling from a library of DFN transport paths, accurately reproducing DFN transport statistic distributions and radionuclide breakthrough curves in an upscaled model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data-driven estimation of energy consumption for electric bus under real-world driving conditions

Reliable and accurate estimation of an electric bus’s instantaneous energy consumption is critical in evaluating energy impacts of planning and control of electric bus operations. In this study, we developed machine learning-based long short-term memory (LSTM) and artificial neural network (ANN) models to estimate 1 Hz energy consumption of electric buses based on continuous monitoring data of electric buses in Chattanooga, Tennessee, in 2019 and 2020. We propose a data-partitioning algorithm to separate energy charging and discharging modes before applying data-driven estimation models. Here, a K-fold cross-validation-based model selection process was conducted to identify the optimal model structure and input variables in terms of prediction accuracy. The estimation results show the predicted mean absolute percentage error rates of LSTM and ANN models were 3% and 5%, respectively. We compared the proposed models with existing models in the literature based on the same testing data to demonstrate the predictability of our models.

Artificial neural network↗