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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,405 records · Page 78

Gaining Perspective on Unconventional Well Design Choices through Play-level Application of Machine Learning Modeling

The recent development of unconventional oil and gas (O&G) reservoirs has led to an abundant hydrocarbon supply, both domestically and globally. However, there is a continued push to develop new and innovative approaches to improve exploration and extraction efficiencies and overall well productivity moving forward. Substantial improvements in unconventional O&G development are expected through optimized well completion and stimulation strategies aimed at maximizing well productivity. Optimizing well designs will require tailoring to the distinctive geologic conditions present for any newly placed well. To better evaluate the impact of well design attributes and their associated interactions on productivity in a major unconventional play, multivariate machine learning-based models that use empirical datasets were developed. A gradient boosted regression tree (GBRT) algorithm was applied. GBRT has been narrowly investigated for O&G applications but enables straightforward parametric importance and influence evaluation, as well as assessment of parameter interaction effects. Models were trained on well design and locational parameters that serve as a proxy for variable geologic conditions to estimate two types of productivity indicator response variables strongly correlated to estimated ultimate recovery (EUR). The dataset utilized consists of over 7,000 well observations that cover the majority of the productive region of the Marcellus Shale. Model performance was evaluated and algorithm parameters tuned by analyzing the goodness-of-fit for simulated results against observed data in a cross-validation approach. Models were found capable of 73–79 percent prediction accuracy on held out testing data of gas equivalent production and can be used to inform future well design and placement decisions for increasing EUR per well and improving overall field-level recovery. Study results indicate that Marcellus well performance improves most with upscaling perforated interval lengths and water and proppant volumes per foot; but relative productivity improvements are spatially dependent across the play. Finally, optimal combinations of water and proppant on well performance were found to vary depending on well location, emphasizing the utility of data-driven models capable of broad application across a play of interest for informing tailored well design approaches prior to their field deployment.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗

Fundamental Algorithms of the Goddard Battery Model

The Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) is currently producing a computer model to predict Nickel Cadmium (NiCd) performance in a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) cycling regime. The model proper is currently still in development, but the inherent, fundamental algorithms (or methodologies) of the model are defined. At present, the model is closely dependent on empirical data and the data base currently used is of questionable accuracy. Even so, very good correlations have been determined between model predictions and actual cycling data. A more accurate and encompassing data base has been generated to serve dual functions: show the limitations of the current data base, and be inbred in the model properly for more accurate predictions. The fundamental algorithms of the model, and the present data base and its limitations, are described and a brief preliminary analysis of the new data base and its verification of the model's methodology are presented.

Jagielski, J. M.↗

Site selection and directional models of deserts used for ERBE validation targets

Broadband shortwave and longwave radiance measurements obtained from the Nimbus 7 Earth Radiation Budget scanner were used to develop reflectance and emittance models for the Sahara, Gibson, and Saudi Deserts. These deserts will serve as in-flight validation targets for the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment being flown on the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite and two National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration polar satellites. The directional reflectance model derived for the deserts was a function of the sum and product of the cosines of the solar and viewing zenith angles, and thus reciprocity existed between these zenith angles. The emittance model was related by a power law of the cosine of the viewing zenith angle.

Staylor, W. F.↗

A general mechanistic framework for cross-scale understanding of hot spots and hot moments in carbon and water fluxes

Semi-arid ecosystems, like those in the American Southwest, exert a massive impact on the interannual variability of carbon and water cycling. Unfortunately, these carbon and water fluxes are notoriously difficult to predict due to their high spatial and temporal variability, which is poorly captured by the current generation of vegetation models. Indeed, this region is exemplified by the ‘hot spots and hot moments’ concept, which states that small areas in space (‘hot spots’) and transient moments in time (‘hot moments’) exert an outsized influence on biogeochemical cycling. However, the factors that regulate these pulses in biogeochemical activity are unknown, as is their variability across space and time. These uncertainties severely limit efforts to better represent hot spots and hot moments in models. Here, we seek to develop a generalized method for detecting and quantifying the importance of hot spots and hot moments from individual plant to regional scales. Underpinning this method is our recently developed statistical approach for identifying hot spots and hot moments. By applying this method to semi-continuous measurements of plant water status, a depth profile of soil water potential, and ecosystem fluxes via eddy covariance, we will track the fate of water through the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum and identify the mechanistic drivers of these transient pulses in biogeochemical activity. Then, we will expand this approach across a broad network of Ameriflux towers, and apply a machine learning approach that will allow us to upscale measurements of hot spots and hot moments across the American Southwest and quantify their impact on carbon and water cycles. These products will allow us to identify hot spots and hot moments across spatio-temporal scales and will serve as crucial data sources for validating a new generation of models that can better capture highly dynamic carbon and water fluxes. The proposed method will be easily transferable across biomes and will serve as a framework for future research on hot spots and hot moments across the plant ecophysiology, biometeorology, and vegetation modeling communities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Real‐time monitoring and diagnosis of photovoltaic system degradation only using maximum power point—the Suns‐Vmp method

Abstract The uncertainties associated with technology‐specific and geography‐specific degradation rates make it difficult to calculate the levelized cost of energy, and thus the economic viability of solar energy. In this regard, millions of fielded photovoltaic modules may serve as a global testbed, where we can interpret the routinely collected time series maximum power point (MPP) data to assess the time‐dependent “health” of solar modules. The existing characterization methods, however, cannot effectively mine/decode these datasets to identify various degradation pathways. In this paper, we propose a new methodology called the Suns‐Vmp method , which offers a simple yet powerful approach to monitoring and diagnosing time‐dependent degradation of solar modules by using the MPP data. The algorithm reconstructs “IV” curves by using the natural illumination‐dependent and temperature‐dependent daily MPP characteristics as constraints to fit physics‐based circuit models. These synthetic IV characteristics are then used to determine the time‐dependent evolution of circuit parameters (eg, series resistance), which in turn allows one to deduce the dominant degradation modes (eg, solder bond failure) of solar modules. The proposed method has been applied to a test facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Our analysis indicates that the solar modules degraded at a rate of ~0.7%/year because of discoloration and weakened solder bonds. These conclusions are validated by independent outdoor IV measurements and on‐site imaging characterization. Integrated with physics‐based degradation models or machine learning algorithms, the method can also serve to predict the lifetime of photovoltaic systems.

Sun, Xingshu↗

Data for Microbial-Explicit Processes and Refined Perennial Plant Traits Improve Modeled Ecosystem Carbon Dynamics

Globally, soils hold approximately half of ecosystem carbon and can serve as a source or sink depending on climate, vegetation, management, and disturbance regimes. Understanding how soil carbon dynamics are influenced by these factors is essential to evaluate proposed natural climate solutions and policy regarding net ecosystem carbon balance. Soil microbes play a key role in both carbon fluxes and stabilization. However, biogeochemical models often do not specifically address microbial-explicit processes. Here, we incorporated microbial-explicit processes into the DayCent biogeochemical model to better represent large perennial grasses and mechanisms of soil carbon formation and stabilization. We also take advantage of recent model improvements to better represent perennial grass structural complexity and life-history traits. Specifically, this study focuses on: 1) a plant sub-model that represents perennial phenology and more refined plant chemistry with downstream implications for soil organic matter (SOM) cycling though litter inputs, 2) live and dead soil microbe pools that influence routing of carbon to physically protected and unprotected pools, 3) Michaelis-Menten kinetics rather than first-order kinetics in the soil decomposition calculations, and 4) feedbacks between decomposition and live microbial pools. We evaluated the performance of the plant sub-model and two SOM cycling sub-models, Michaelis-Menten (MM) and first-order (FO), using observations of net ecosystem production, ecosystem respiration, soil respiration, microbial biomass, and soil carbon from long-term bioenergy research plots in the mid-western United States. The MM sub-model represented seasonal dynamics of soil carbon fluxes better than the FO sub-model which consistently overestimated winter soil respiration. While both SOM sub-models were similarly calibrated to total, physically protected, and physically unprotected soil carbon measurements, the models differed in future soil carbon response to disturbance and climate, most notably in the protected pools. Adding microbial-explicit mechanisms of soil processes to ecosystem models will improve model predictions of ecosystem carbon balances but more data and research are necessary to validate disturbance and climate change responses and soil pool allocation.

Field Data↗

Extreme flood return levels in a U.S. mid-Atlantic estuary using 40-year fluvial-coastal model simulations

Using an integrated watershed-coastal modeling framework, we conducted long-term historical simulations (1980-2019) of fluvial and coastal flooding in the Delaware Bay and River, a vulnerable estuarine system in the U.S., at high spatial resolutions. By applying process-based models, we generated physically consistent and spatially detailed estimates of estuarine, riverine, and surge-driven extreme water level compared to previous studies that used field data only. We then evaluated changes in the magnitude of flood events using the 40-year simulations and detrended Floodwater Depth values with stationary extreme value analysis. Our detailed assessment of spatial-varying extreme values revealed how different flood-generation mechanisms can dominate various zones in the estuary. The datasets produced through this work will be valuable for long-term flood hazard mitigation planning in coastal communities in the Delaware Bay and River region. Additionally, this work will serve as a benchmark for other coastal flood hazard modeling communities worldwide, aiding them in systematically modeling long-term and continuous extreme flood events.

Coastal and Riverine Flooding↗

AI-assisted object condensation clustering for calorimeter shower reconstruction at CLAS12

Several nuclear physics studies using the CLAS12 detector rely on the accurate reconstruction of neutrons and photons from its forward angle calorimeter system. These studies often place restrictive cuts when measuring neutral particles due to an overabundance of false clusters created by the existing calorimeter reconstruction software. In this work, we present a new AI approach to clustering CLAS12 calorimeter hits based on the object condensation framework. The model learns a latent representation of the full detector topology using GravNet layers, serving as the positional encoding for an event’s calorimeter hits which are processed by a Transformer encoder. This unique structure allows the model to contextualize local and long range information, improving its performance. Evaluated on one million simulated $e^-$ $+$ $p$ collision events, our method significantly improves cluster trustworthiness: the fraction of reliable neutron clusters, increasing from 8.88% to 30.73%, and photon clusters, increasing from 51.07% to 64.73%. In conclusion, our study also marks the first application of AI clustering techniques for hodoscopic detectors, showing potential for usage in many other experiments.

Calorimeters↗

The Solid Rocket Motor Slag Population: Results of a Radar-Based Regressive Statistical Evaluation

Solid rocket motor (SRM) slag has been identified as a potential source of man-made orbital debris. The possibility that SRMs (in addition to generating dust particles in the sub-millimeter range) may generate particles up to centimeters in size has caused concern regarding their contribution to the debris environment. Returned surfaces from space do not have sufficient area or exposure time to provide a clear picture of the SRM millimeter and centimeter debris population. Currently, radar observation is probably the only way to collect data showing the debris contribution from SRMs. Such observation is used to sample the debris environment, but it is difficult to obtain accurate orbital elements for the detected debris objects. NASA has developed several models to describe the different orbital debris populations, based on assumed debris production mechanisms to create clouds of debris objects that can be propagated in time. The NASA model, LEGEND (LEO-to-GEO Environment Debris), functions as a time-tested debris model for most debris sources. However, the current LEGEND model does not include contributions from the SRM population. An SRM model has recently been developed by NASA, based on purely theoretical details of SRM production and known SRM launches, but verification with hard data is needed. Because the detections of individual SRM objects cannot be deterministically separated from the total debris observed by radar, the validation of the SRM model can only be done by combining it with the LEGEND breakup model and comparing it with data. By applying observational constraints, the degree of SRM slag contribution to the environment may be estimated. This serves as an observationally sound method from which to calibrate a purely theoretical model into something more realistic. For this study, we use the populations observed by the Haystack radar from 1996 to present. For the SRM debris, we use a historical database of SRM launches, propellant masses, and estimated locations and times of tailoff to produce and propagate the SRM debris clouds. Comparisons with radar data from the ensuing years were made, and the SRM model was altered with respect to size and mass production of slag particles to reflect the populations estimated from the data. The result is a model SRM population that fits within the bounds of the observed environment and estimates of the production and contribution of SRM debris to the environment.

Horstman, Matthew F.↗

"Source Term Modeling for Advanced Gas Micro-Reactors"

Maintaining the safety of the public, environment, and operating personnel is the most important factor in designing, operating, maintaining, and decommissioning nuclear reactors. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in the development of micro-reactors employing TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel. In gas reactors, TRISO fuel plays an important role in the safety case for high temperature reactors because of the fission product retention properties of the fuel. This ability enables the use of a functional containment strategy for the reactor where multiple barriers are used to prevent fission product release to the environment. Part of the safety analysis of these advanced reactors is the assessment of radionuclide releases under normal and accident conditions through the multiple credited safety barriers. Using conservative assumptions, a mechanistic analysis can be performed to quantify these releases that combines the probabilistic assessment of failure with analytic solutions to radionuclide transport equations. Source term modeling for TRISO fuel has been performed for previous reactor designs; however, these models are outdated, in many cases proprietary, and need updates to be applied to the current state of TRISO fuel technology and alternative gas reactor core configurations [1]. Currently, the only publicly available source term assessment for gas reactors is an expert-based Monte Carlo simulation based on the effectiveness of the fuel kernel, coating layers, and graphite block in a modular high temperature gas reactor [2]. Thus, there is a need to develop a simple, versatile, and mechanistic model of fission product release and transport in gas reactor cores that could be applied to a variety of reactors through user inputs and reactor-specific radionuclide inventories. The release is calculated by the diffusion of the key safety important fission products through the kernel, silicon carbide (SiC), graphite for both intact and defective TRISO particles based on fuel and graphite temperatures in the reactor under normal operation. These releases from the fuel enter the coolant where they can plate-out on cooler surfaces. A clean-up model is included for designs with a coolant purification system to remove fission gases. This initial distribution of fission products in the reactor serves as an initial condition for potential releases under postulated accident conditions. The model then can calculate the fission product release for any transient temperature profile and fission product releases can then be used to assess radiological dose to the workers and the public using conventional dose tools. Data on the diffusion of fission products is based on historic German TRISO experiments and the more current Department of Energy (DOE) Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) TRISO fuel development program. The model is coded in python with inputs and outputs in excel spreadsheets, as well as python plotting utilities to aid in the interpretation of the results. References: [1] INL, NGNP Mechanistic Source Term White Paper, INL-10-17997, July 2010. [2] David A. Petti, Richard R. Hobbins, Peter Lowry, Hans Gougar, “Representative Source Terms and The Influence of Reactor Attributes on Functional Containment in Modular High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors,” Nuclear Technology, Vol. 184, p. 181-197, Nov. 2013.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

A tutorial on radio frequency sheath physics for magnetically confined fusion devices

Radio frequency (RF) sheaths occur under a wide variety of conditions when RF waves, material surfaces and plasma coexist. RF sheaths are of special importance in describing the interaction of ion cyclotron range of frequency (ICRF) waves with the boundary plasma in tokamaks, stellarators and other magnetic confinement devices. In this article the basic physics of RF sheaths is discussed in the context of magnetic fusion research. Techniques for modelling RF sheaths, their interaction with RF wave fields and the resulting consequences are highlighted. The article is intended as a guide for the early-career ICRF researcher, but it may equally well serve to provide an overview of basic RF sheath concepts and modelling directions for any interested fusion scientist.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Revenue-Maximizing Shared Parking and Electric Vehicle Charging Management in Multi-Unit Dwellings

In urban areas, searching for parking and electric vehicle (EV) charging can result in cruising, congestion, and environmental externalities. Recognizing the business opportunity of offering private parking and charging infrastructure access within multi-unit dwellings (MUDs) during daytime, we model a shared parking and EV charging management system. We maximize the revenue of MUD charging hubs in mixed land use, catering to public demand. Our approach accounts for the objectives of the two stakeholders involved: a demand model is fitted on the choices of EV charging users, and the supply model optimizes the allocation of parking and charging requests in an MUD parking lot. A binary integer linear programming model for the allocation of parking and charging spaces with a rolling horizon is integrated with matching rules that handle both parking and charging requests. In our numerical experiments in a neighborhood of Chicago, Illinois, we estimate the performance of the MUD parking and charging system with metrics that include revenue, number of matchings, and utilization rates. At any given time, MUDs with lower prices attract more charging requests, particularly those of longer duration, resulting in higher revenue and greater charging utilization. Dynamic pricing facilitates a more equitable distribution of requests; as MUD parking lots reach capacity and their fees increase, other MUDs become more competitive, attracting additional requests. Comparing our method against first-come-first-served and optimal-solution benchmarks, we demonstrate our model’s effectiveness in dynamically managing mixed parking and charging demand in MUD charging hubs.

electric vehicle, multi-unit dwelling, charging in↗

A Tutorial on Control-Oriented Modeling and Control of Wind Farms

Wind turbines are often sited together in wind farms as it is economically advantageous. However, the wake inevitably created by every turbine will lead to a time-varying interaction between the individual turbines. Common practice in industry has been to control turbines individually and ignore this interaction while optimizing the power and loads of the individual turbines. However, turbines that are in a wake experience reduced wind speed and increased turbulence, leading to a reduced energy extraction and increased dynamic mechanical loads on the turbine, respectively. Neglecting the dynamic interaction between turbines in control will therefore lead to suboptimal behaviour of the total wind farm. Therefore, wind farm control has been receiving an increasing amount of attention over the past years, with the focus on increasing the total power production and reducing the dynamic loading on the turbines. In this paper, wind farm control-oriented modeling and control concepts are explained. In addition, recent developments and literature are discussed and categorized. This paper can serve as a source of background information and provides many references regarding control-oriented modeling and control of wind farms.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Model-Based Systems Analysis and Engineering for the Sustainable Flight National Partnership

NASA is committed to supporting the U.S. climate goal of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions from the aviation sector by 2050, as outlined in the U.S. 2021 Aviation Climate Action Plan. Through the Sustainable Flight National Partnership (SFNP), NASA is leading federal agencies and industry partners to accelerate the development of technologies capable of supporting the nation's aviation sustainability goals for products targeting an entry-into-service of 2035. To support the SFNP, NASA is developing a Model-Based Systems Analysis & Engineering (MBSA&E) framework which will serve to digitally integrate the work across numerous projects and demonstrations to the systems-level for relevant vision vehicle concepts. This presentation summarizes the MBSA&E motivation, development efforts, and future work.

Model Based Engineering↗

Alabama Carbon Storage: Data Sharing and Engagement (Final Report)

This report is the final technical report on Alabama Carbon Storage: Data Sharing Engagement (ACS:DSE) project activities. The goals of the ACS:DSE project are to compile geologic, geophysical, infrastructure, and other relevant CCUS datasets for the study area and develop a geologic model of the study area; develop an online platform to serve data to stakeholders; engage with the public, students, and industry to educate them about CCUS and the data platform; and ensure energy and environmental justice is central to all aspects of the project. Datasets compiled and expanded include formation depths and elevations, digital geophysical well logs, reservoir properties, geologic structures, and geologic models. The geologic data were used to create a three-dimensional geologic model, structure grids, structure contour maps, and fault trace maps. In addition to downloadable datasets, links to CCUS relevant regulatory agencies (e.g., OGB, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency) and sources for infrastructure and educational information were included on the website Educational materials on CCUS for use by K-12 teachers were produced as part of the ACS:DSE project.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Duality between ( 2 + 1 ) d quantum critical points

We describe the simulated data sample for the “Photometric LSST Astronomical Time Series Classi-fication Challenge” (PLAsTiCC), a publicly available challenge to classify transient and variable eventsthat will be observed by the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), a new facility expected tostart in the early 2020s. The challenge was hosted by Kaggle, ran from 2018 September 28 to 2018December 17, and included 1,094 teams competing for prizes. Here we provide details of the 18 tran-sient and variable source models, which were not revealed until after the challenge, and release themodel libraries athttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2612896. We describe the LSST OperationsSimulator used to predict realistic observing conditions, and we describe the publicly availableSNANAsimulation code used to transform the models into observed fluxes and uncertainties in the LSSTpassbands (ugrizy). AlthoughPLAsTiCChas finished, the publicly available models and simulationtools are being used within the astronomy community to further improve classification, and to studycontamination in photometrically identified samples of type Ia supernova used to measure propertiesof dark energy. Our simulation framework will continue serving as a platform to improve thePLAsTiCCmodels, and to develop new models.

Senthil, T.↗

On the Modeling of UAM Aircraft Community Noise in AEDT Helicopter Mode

In contrast to most commercial air traffic today, vehicles serving the urban air mobility (UAM) market are anticipated to operate within communities and be close to the public at large. The approved model for assessing environmental impact of air traffic actions in the United States, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation Environmental Design Tool (AEDT), does not directly support analysis of such operations. Prior work focused on modeling UAM aircraft within AEDT under fixed-wing mode. This paper addresses the modeling of UAM aircraft under helicopter mode, using requisite noise-power-distance data generated through analysis. Results are compared with those from the fixed-wing approach and a hybrid approach. The latter models some flight segments in fixed-wing mode and others in helicopter mode.

aircraft community noise↗

A Multi-Instrument Cloud Condensation Nuclei Spectrum Product (Final Technical Report)

A wealth of observational data exists on the characteristics of atmospheric particulate matter, over multiple years, at the DOE ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility site. This site is located in a region of the country that frequently experiences weather extremes, and that is removed from many local sources of pollution but is affected by transported smoke, dust, and urban emissions. The relationships between particulate matter, cloud formation and evolution, and precipitation are therefore of strong interest, and are being explored via modeling on a variety of scales. These models require as input detailed information on the characteristics of particles capable of serving as the nuclei for cloud formation. Sufficient data exist to be able to put together a picture of the nature of the total aerosol and the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) subset, and their variability, through merged data products. This study was aimed at exploiting the multiple measurement types at SGP to develop the first such multi-year estimates. Further, the resulting data were analyzed to understand temporal patterns ranging from hourly to seasonal, thereby gaining insights into the particle sources affecting the atmosphere in this region. DOE-funded datasets that were analyzed in this study include total particle number concentrations, submicron aerosol scattering coefficients, dry aerosol size distributions, and more recently, time-resolved submicron aerosol chemical composition. Data are also available for the number concentrations of particles that are activated in a cloud condensation nucleus instrument at a series of setpoint supersaturations, providing direct observations of the number concentrations of “CCN”. This variable is the quantity that is generally desired for inclusion in numerical models that seek to represent and predict the impacts of varying aerosol characteristics on the formation and microphysical properties of clouds. One limitation of the use of direct CCN observations is that they are not available for supersaturations larger than about 1%, which is insufficient for deep convection and may be insufficient even for shallow convection, depending on the nature of the available CCN and the dynamics of the cloud. We developed a data-based approach to representing the full aerosol size spectrum with size-dependent hygroscopicity, and used this to extrapolate CCN spectra beyond the limited measurements. Five years of SGP aerosol data (2009 -2013) were analyzed. As a side product of our work, we identified and communicated several previously-unflagged data quality issues. The resulting merged aerosol distributions, along with fits for seasonal averages, were published and submitted to the ARM archive as a special value-added product (VAP; submitted as a PI product). CCN spectra were computed for the same data period and will similarly be published and submitted to the archive for use by the community. We also note that our methodologies and findings have been discussed at several Joint ARM User Facility/Atmospheric System Research (ASR) Principal Investigators Meetings and that recent ARM/ASR aerosol data reporting strategies have included similar ideas for data merging, indicating that this work has had a lasting impact on ARM aerosol data acquisition and reporting. The proposed work advances the science of the interactions of aerosols, clouds and precipitation, with direct application to improve representation of such interactions for clouds in regional and global climate models. The archived data will continue to serve research studies in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗