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At least 1,405 records · Page 78

Shell Buckling Design Criteria Based on Manufacturing Imperfection Signatures

An analysis-based approach .for developing shell-buckling design criteria for laminated-composite cylindrical shells that accurately accounts for the effects of initial geometric imperfections is presented. With this approach, measured initial geometric imperfection data from six graphite-epoxy shells are used to determine a manufacturing-process-specific imperfection signature for these shells. This imperfection signature is then used as input into nonlinear finite-element analyses. The imperfection signature represents a "first-approximation" mean imperfection shape that is suitable for developing preliminary-design data. Comparisons of test data and analytical results obtained by using several different imperfection shapes are presented for selected shells. Overall, the results indicate that the analysis-based approach presented for developing reliable preliminary-design criteria has the potential to provide improved, less conservative buckling-load estimates, and to reduce the weight and cost of developing buckling-resistant shell structures.

Hilburger, Mark W.↗

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA): A Practical and Cost Effective Approach

The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) is the first mission of the Robotic Lunar Exploration Program (RLEP), a space exploration venture to the Moon, Mars and beyond. The LRO mission includes spacecraft developed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and seven instruments built by GSFC, Russia, and contractors across the nation. LRO is defined as a measurement mission, not a science mission. It emphasizes the overall objectives of obtaining data to facilitate returning mankind safely to the Moon in preparation for an eventual manned mission to Mars. As the first mission in response to the President's commitment of the journey of exploring the solar system and beyond: returning to the Moon in the next decade, then venturing further into the solar system, ultimately sending humans to Mars and beyond, LRO has high-visibility to the public but limited resources and a tight schedule. This paper demonstrates how NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Mission project office incorporated reliability analyses in assessing risks and performing design tradeoffs to ensure mission success. Risk assessment is performed using NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) 8705.5 - Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects to formulate probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). As required, a limited scope PRA is being performed for the LRO project. The PRA is used to optimize the mission design within mandated budget, manpower, and schedule constraints. The technique that LRO project office uses to perform PRA relies on the application of a component failure database to quantify the potential mission success risks. To ensure mission success in an efficient manner, low cost and tight schedule, the traditional reliability analyses, such as reliability predictions, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), are used to perform PRA for the large system of LRO with more than 14,000 piece parts and over 120 purchased or contractor built components.

Lee, Lydia L.↗

A Statistical Approach to Characterizing the Reliability of Systems Utilizing HBT Devices

This paper presents a statistical approach to characterizing the reliability of systems with HBT devices. The proposed approach utilizes the statistical reliability information of the HBT individual devices, along with the analysis on the critical paths of the system, to provide more accurate and more comprehensive reliability information about the HBT systems compared to the conventional worst-case method.

hetero bipolar transistors (HBTs)↗

Ground Operations of the ISS GNC Babb-Mueller Atmospheric Density Model

The ISS GNC system was updated recently with a new software release that provides onboard state determination capability. Prior to this release, only the Russian segment maintained and propagated the onboard state, which was periodically updated through Russian ground tracking. The new software gives the US segment the capability for maintaining the onboard state, and includes new GPS and state vector propagation capabilities. Part of this software package is an atmospheric density model based on the Babb-Mueller algorithm. Babb-Mueller efficiently mimics a full analytical density model, such as the Jacchia model. While lacchia is very robust and is used in the Mission Control Center, it is too computationally intensive for use onboard. Thus, Babb-Mueller was chosen as an alternative. The onboard model depends on a set of calibration coefficients that produce a curve fit to the lacchia model. The ISS GNC system only maintains one set of coefficients onboard, so a new set must be uplinked by controllers when the atmospheric conditions change. The onboard density model provides a real-time density value, which is used to calculate the drag experienced by the ISS. This drag value is then incorporated into the onboard propagation of the state vector. The propagation of the state vector, and therefore operation of the BabbMueller algorithm, will be most critical when GPS updates and secondary state vector sources fail. When GPS is active, the onboard state vector will be updated every ten seconds, so the propagation error is irrelevant. When GPS is inactive, the state vector must be updated at least every 24 hours, based on current protocol. Therefore, the Babb-Mueller coefficients must be accurate enough to fulfill the state vector accuracy requirements for at least one day. A ground operations concept was needed in order to manage both the on board Babb-Mueller density model and the onboard state quality. The Babb-Mueller coefficients can be determined operationally in two ways. The first method is to calibrate the coefficients in real-time, where a set of custom coefficients is generated for the real-time atmospheric conditions. The second approach is to generate pre-canned sets of coefficients that encompass the expected atmospheric conditions over the lifetime of the vehicle. These predetermined sets are known as occurrences. Even though a particular occurrence will not match the true atmospheric conditions, the error will be constrained by limiting the breadth of each occurrence. Both methods were investigated and the advantages and disadvantages of each were considered. The choice between these implementations was a trade-off between the additional accuracy of the real-time calibration and the simpler development for the approach using occurrences. The operations concept for the frequency of updates was also explored, and depends on the deviation in solar flux that still achieves the necessary accuracy of the coefficients. This was determined based on historical solar flux trends. This analysis resulted in an accurate and reliable implementation of the Babb-Mueller coefficients and how flight controllers use them during realtime operations.

Brogan, Jonathan↗

An Analysis Technique/Automated Tool for Comparing and Tracking Analysis Modes of Different Finite Element Models

An analysis technique was developed to compare and track mode shapes for different Finite Element Models. The technique may be applied to a variety of structural dynamics analyses, including model reduction validation (comparing unreduced and reduced models), mode tracking for various parametric analyses (e.g., launch vehicle model dispersion analysis to identify sensitivities to modal gain for Guidance, Navigation, and Control), comparing models of different mesh fidelity (e.g., a coarse model for a preliminary analysis compared to a higher-fidelity model for a detailed analysis) and mode tracking for a structure with properties that change over time (e.g., a launch vehicle from liftoff through end-of-burn, with propellant being expended during the flight). Mode shapes for different models are compared and tracked using several numerical indicators, including traditional Cross-Orthogonality and Modal Assurance Criteria approaches, as well as numerical indicators obtained by comparing modal strain energy and kinetic energy distributions. This analysis technique has been used to reliably identify correlated mode shapes for complex Finite Element Models that would otherwise be difficult to compare using traditional techniques. This improved approach also utilizes an adaptive mode tracking algorithm that allows for automated tracking when working with complex models and/or comparing a large group of models.

Towner, Robert L.↗

The Origin and Evolution of Saturn's 2011-2012 Stratospheric Vortex

The planet-encircling springtime storm in Saturn's troposphere (December 2010-July 2011, Fletcher, L.N. et al. [2011]. Science 332, 1413-1414; Sánchez-Lavega, A. et al. [2011]. Nature 475, 71-74; Fischer, G. et al. [2011]. Nature 475, 75-77) produced dramatic perturbations to stratospheric temperatures, winds and composition at mbar pressures that persisted long after the tropospheric disturbance had abated. Thermal infrared (IR) spectroscopy from the Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS), supported by ground-based IR imaging from the VISIR instrument on the Very Large Telescope and the MIRSI instrument on NASA's IRTF, is used to track the evolution of a large, hot stratospheric anticyclone between January 2011 and March 2012. The evolutionary sequence can be divided into three phases: (I) the formation and intensification of two distinct warm airmasses near 0.5 mbar between 25 and 35degN (B1 and B2) between January-April 2011, moving westward with different zonal velocities, B1 residing directly above the convective tropospheric storm head; (II) the merging of the warm airmasses to form the large single 'stratospheric beacon' near 40degN (B0) between April and June 2011, disassociated from the storm head and at a higher pressure (2 mbar) than the original beacons, a downward shift of 1.4 scale heights (approximately 85 km) post-merger; and (III) the mature phase characterised by slow cooling (0.11 +/- 0.01 K/day) and longitudinal shrinkage of the anticyclone since July 2011. Peak temperatures of 221.6 +/- 1.4 K at 2 mbar were measured on May 5th 2011 immediately after the merger, some 80 K warmer than the quiescent surroundings. From July 2011 to the time of writing, B0 remained as a long-lived stable stratospheric phenomenon at 2 mbar, moving west with a near-constant velocity of 2.70 +/- 0.04 deg/day (24.5 +/- 0.4 m/s at 40degN relative to System III longitudes). No perturbations to visible clouds and hazes were detected during this period. With no direct tracers of motion in the stratosphere, we use thermal windshear calculations to estimate clockwise peripheral velocities of 200-400 m/s at 2 mbar around B0. The peripheral velocities of the two original airmasses were smaller (70-140 m/s). In August 2011, the size of the vortex as defined by the peripheral collar was 65deg longitude (50,000 km in diameter) and 25deg latitude. Stratospheric acetylene (C2H2) was uniformly enhanced by a factor of three within the vortex, whereas ethane (C2H6) remained unaffected. The passage of B0 generated a new band of warm stratospheric emission at 0.5 mbar at its northern edge, and there are hints of warm stratospheric structures associated with the beacons at higher altitudes (p < 0.1 mbar) than can be reliably observed by CIRS nadir spectroscopy. Analysis of the zonal windshear suggests that Rossby wave perturbations from the convective storm could have propagated vertically into the stratosphere at this point in Saturn's seasonal cycle, one possible source of energy for the formation of these stratospheric anticyclones.

evolution↗

Osiris-Rex Post-Tag Observation Trajectory Design and Navigation Performance

NASA’s OSIRIS-REx spacecraft successfully collected a sample of asteroid regolith from the surface of near-Earth asteroid Bennu in October of 2020. Subsequent imaging of the sampler head showed material leaking from the collection mechanism, thus stowage of the sample precluded execution of any planned maneuvers in the following days. Optical navigation imaging also ceased in the days following sample collection. The desire to image the sample site to investigate the results of the spacecraft-to-surface interaction led to the Navigation team designing a trajectory to return to Bennu after several months in order to image the surface one final time. After several iterations a trajectory design was created that satisfied the numerous constraints that were levied in order to place utmost importance on the safety of the spacecraft and stowed sample, while also closely emulating previously obtained imaging conditions to provide a close comparison of site pre- and post-contact. Significant analysis was necessary in order to reliably reacquire the asteroid after several months without optical navigation imagery. The final design required five maneuvers to return the spacecraft to Bennu and perform a final flyby of the asteroid at a distance of 3.8 kilometers. Successful execution of the phase provided key insights regarding the performance of the sample collection activities and the subsurface composition of the asteroid.

Daniel R Wibben↗

Do Citizen Science Intense Observation Periods Increase Data Usability? A Deep Dive of the NASA GLOBE Clouds Data Set With Satellite Comparisons

The Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) citizen science program has recently conducted a series of month-long intensive observation periods (IOPs), asking the public to submit daily reports on cloud and sky conditions from all regions of Earth. This provides a wealth of crowdsourced observations from the ground, which complements other conventional scientific cloud data. In addition, the GLOBE reports are matched in space and time with geostationary and low Earth orbit satellites, which allows for a straightforward comparison of cloud properties, and minimizes the biases associated with mismatched sampling between participants and satellites. The matched GLOBE dataset is used to calculate the mean observed cloud cover by atmospheric level both worldwide and by region. The overall magnitudes of cloud cover between the GLOBE participants and the matched satellites agree within 10%, which is notable given the distinctly different natures of the data sources. The mean vertical cloud profiles show GLOBE reporting more low-level clouds and fewer high-level clouds than satellites. The low cloud disagreement is likely related to satellites missing low clouds when high clouds block their view. Conversely, the high cloud disagreement is related primarily to cloud opacity, as satellites may miss some optically thin clouds. Monte Carlo testing shows the results to be robust, and the tripled amount of IOP data reduces uncertainty by half. These findings also highlight ways in which citizen science IOP data may be used to support scientific research while accounting for their unique properties. Plain Language Summary: Citizen science is becoming an increasingly prominent aspect of scientific research, and so it important to study how citizen science data can be used effectively. For example, The GLOBE Program has recently conducted a series of special data-collecting events, or “challenges”, which gathered large numbers of reports on cloud and sky conditions. Because NASA GLOBE Clouds matches the participant reports with cloud observations from satellites, we can use these data to get a combined view of clouds from above and below. When looking at the average cloud cover for different atmospheric levels across Earth, we find that the GLOBE participants and the satellites agree quite closely. This is a surprising and fascinating find, given how different in nature volunteer ground reports are to satellite measurements. However, there are some small but notable disagreements between GLOBE participants and satellites about the distribution of cloud cover at different levels. In addition, by testing the data for uncertainty, we show that the results from the GLOBE data are reliable, and that more public participation improves the reliability. So, by carefully designing the analysis methodology, and by testing for the uncertainty of the data, citizen science can make a meaningful contribution to scientific research.

J. Brant Dodson↗

Stochastic Reconstruction of Thermal Protection Material Properties from Arc-Jet Experiments

Material response models are used to assess reliability using variances in the bond-line temperature predictions based on uncertainties in trajectory, aerothermal environment, and material properties. A key deficiency in the current approach is that input uncertainties are too often subjective, empirical, or ad-hoc, and are not rigorously linked to the arc-jet test data used to develop the TPS material model. While materials such as PICA are well understood, future missions may require more novel materials such as HEEET where unknown uncertainties have real consequences on the ability to assess reliability. A quantifiable estimate of reliability requires an iterative methodology where the parameters driving the variance in bond-line temperature (for example) are systematically identified. A test campaign to collect data or develop new models can then be identified to reduce those input uncertainties. A Bayesian inference loop defines these connections mathematically, i.e., prior knowledge about uncertainty is updated based on observation. While these concepts are well known (and often applied intuitively in a non-rigorous approach), only recent advances in reduced-order modelling have made them computationally viable methods for engineering. By replacing deterministic inverse methods with stochastic approaches, the hope is new materials proposed for future missions can more rapidly be developed with a greater understanding of the TPS material reliability. Two additional steps for the analysis of arc jet test data are discussed. The first is ability to construct a reduced-order model using material response simulations (Icarus/US3D) of the arc-jet test articles, and the second is the inclusion of this surrogate model in the Bayesian inversion process. Both capabilities will be demonstrated using prior PICA arc-jet test data. The quality of a surrogate model will be investigated and the variances on the calibrated material properties will be compared to our current understanding of the PICA material model.

Material response↗

Integrated emergency control board including design extended conditions for Krsko NPP - 297

In the aim of implementing post-Fukushima safety measures, Krsko Nuclear Power Plant is developing a Safety Upgrade Program. Krsko NPP is upgrading the remote shutdown capabilities and implementing ways to prevent and mitigate the consequences of potential Severe Accidents. This modification enhances remote shutdown capabilities of the plant to prevent potential severe accidents and improve the ways to mitigate their consequences. Within the set of plant design modifications, addressed the design, construction, and commissioning, of a new Emergency Control Room (EMCB. Tecnatom is the responsible of the design modification of the plant together with Idom, that participates with Tecnatom in the project as a joint venture, who provides a new set of field instrumentation, including its design and the corresponding wiring. EMCB integrates Human- System Interface throughout centralizing capabilities to safety shutdown and cooldown the plant as well as to control the new Design Extension Systems. The process relies on a Human Factors Engineering (HFE) analysis applying a specific methodology based on NUREG-0711 . Tecnatom has developed a specific HFE Program Management Plan to proceed with the analysis in a documented, traceable and reliable way. HFE activities ends with an Integrated System Validation in the actual full scope simulator involving MCR crews. This paper describes different phases of the project, the integrated schedule between HFE and I and C activities, benefits of upgrading main and emergency control rooms beyond design bases and addresses Tecnatom lessons learned obtained during the project execution. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NRC Reactor Operating Experience Analysis and Trend Summary: 2020 Update

This report presents a summary of the reliability and frequency trends identified in the 2020 update reports for component performance study, loss of offsite power analysis, initiating events analysis, and system study provided on the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Reactor Operating Experience Results and Databases web site (https://nrcoe.inl.gov/).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

On requirements for software fault tolerance for flight controls

The need for the application of software fault tolerance techniques in digital flight control systems is argued to follow from the requirements derivable from the safety constraints of such systems, requirements which can be stated in terms of minimum acceptable system reliability levels and, moreover, stated quantitatively. It is argued further that, while fault tolerance appears to be a viable mechanism in general, individual fault tolerance schemes need to be analyzed to ensure that they are adequate to the task and being properly utilized, that such analysis is essentially an exercise in software 'reliability' estimation involving software characteristics not currently included in software 'reliability' modeling (most especially, the degree of correlation of malfunctions among redundant, dissimilar software modules), and that, consequently, further research and studies in the characterization of software behavior and malfunctions is required.

Migneault, G. E.↗

Nickel cadmium cell composite reliability model

Ni-Cd battery reliability has become a critical design parameter with the increasing need for longer life and optimally designed secondary battery power systems in space as well as in more mundane applications. It is the purpose of this paper to present a state-of-the-art Ni-Cd cell reliability model as a function of cumulative cyclic operation, cell temperature and cyclic depth-of-discharge. In addition, a simple and convenient cell failure analysis technique will be presented in which the reliability, the distribution, and the distribution parameters can be determined by visual inspection.

Kirsch, W. W.↗

Ground Vibration Testing at NASA Armstrong, Emphasizing on Passive Aeroelastic Tailored Wing Ground Vibration Test Using Fixed Base Correction Method

How does experimental mechanics contribute to aircraft aeroelastic airworthiness? The aviation community is always improving analysis and testing techniques to realize quicker, cheaper, reliable solutions. A ground vibration test (GVT) is conducted to identify structural mode shapes, frequencies, and damping values to validate analytical models used for flutter analysis, which shows whether a structure has acceptable aeroelastic flutter margins for airworthiness. The FLL recently conducted a GVT of the Passive Aeroelastic Tailored (PAT) Wing using an experimental modal technique called Fixed Base Correction (FBC). The GVT objective was to obtain the PAT wing modal characteristics to compare test results with finite element model (FEM) results for the tow-steered wingbox.

loads testing↗

Incorporating FLEX Strategies in Multi-Unit Probabilistic Risk Assessment

The catastrophic Fukushima nuclear accident reminded nuclear community about the possibilities of extreme accident scenarios, including those involving multiple reactor units on the same site. As the responses to the Fukushima accident, the nuclear power industry developed and implemented a series of strategies, including the Diverse and Flexible Coping Strategies (FLEX), to enhance the coping capacities of nuclear power plants (NPPs) under extreme accidents. This study intends to examine the impact of FLEX strategies on the risk from all the reactor units on the same NPP site, including risks from accidents involving a single unit and from accidents involving multiple units. The fundamental, methodological element of this study is Multi-Unit Probabilistic Risk Assessment (MUPRA), which requires a shift in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) from a “one-reactor-at-a-time” mindset to a “considering all reactors sharing a site as a unity” one. An integrated modeling approach for multi-unit event sequence development will be leveraged to develop MUPRA model and address the intra-unit and inter-unit dependencies. Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE), a PRA software developed and maintained by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), will serve as the platform for MUPRA modeling. This study selects Loss Of Offsite Power (LOOP) as a representative initiating event, which may occur on a generic two-unit NPP site and impacts both reactor units on the site. First, an MUPRA model, including multi-unit event trees, will be developed to obtain single-unit and multi-unit accident scenarios. Next, different FLEX strategies will be assumed, including FLEX equipment for a unit cannot be used for another unit, FLEX equipment for multiple units can be used in a cross-connected manner, etc. Lastly, the effectiveness of each postulated FLEX strategy will be evaluated by incorporating the corresponding FLEX equipment and deployment logic in the MUPRA model.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

The Role of Analysis and Testing in the Service Life Assessment of Ion Engines

Experience from tests and flights and engineering analysis represent the two sources of information on which to base conclusions on the reliability or failure risk of aerospace flight systems. It is rarely feasible to establish high reliability at high confidence by testing aerospace flight systems or components. The limitations of testing in evaluating failure risk are discussed and an alternate statistical approach which relies on both test experience and analysis to quantitatively assess reliability is outlined. The implementation of this methodology in the service life assessment of ion thrusters is discussed and examples of failure modes being addressed in the NASA Solar Electric Propulsion Technology Application Readiness (NSTAR) program are given.

Ion↗

A hybrid wavelet de-noising and Rank-Set Pair Analysis approach for forecasting hydro-meteorological time series

Highlights: • A new hybrid approach is proposed to improve forecasts of hydro-meteorological time series. • Rank-Set Pair Analysis combined with wavelet de-noising markedly improves forecasting accuracy. • The performance of the proposed approach proves best among its present competitors even when the extreme value occurs. Accurate, fast forecasting of hydro-meteorological time series is presently a major challenge in drought and flood mitigation. This paper proposes a hybrid approach, wavelet de-noising (WD) and Rank-Set Pair Analysis (RSPA), that takes full advantage of a combination of the two approaches to improve forecasts of hydro-meteorological time series. WD allows decomposition and reconstruction of a time series by the wavelet transform, and hence separation of the noise from the original series. RSPA, a more reliable and efficient version of Set Pair Analysis, is integrated with WD to form the hybrid WD-RSPA approach. Two types of hydro-meteorological data sets with different characteristics and different levels of human influences at some representative stations are used to illustrate the WD-RSPA approach. The approach is also compared to three other generic methods: the conventional Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) (BP-error Back Propagation, MLP-Multilayer Perceptron and RBF-Radial Basis Function), and RSPA alone. Nine error metrics are used to evaluate the model performance. Compared to three other generic methods, the results generated by WD-REPA model presented invariably smaller error measures which means the forecasting capability of the WD-REPA model is better than other models. The results show that WD-RSPA is accurate, feasible, and effective. In particular, WD-RSPA is found to be the best among the various generic methods compared in this paper, even when the extreme events are included within a time series.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Visibility of Hypovascularized Liver Tumors during Intra-Arterial Therapy Using Split-Bolus Single-Phase Cone Beam CT

Purpose: To validate a split-bolus contrast injection protocol for single-phase CBCT in terms of detectability of hypovascular liver tumors compared to digital subtraction angiography (DSA). Materials and Methods: In this retrospective, single-center study, 20 consecutive patients with in total 77 hypovascularized tumors referred for intra-arterial therapy received a split-bolus single-phase CBCT. Two readers rated the visibility of the target tumors scheduled for embolization in CBCT and DSA compared to the pre-interventional multiphasic CT or MRI used as reference on a 3-point scoring system (1 = optimal, 3 = not visible) and catheter-associated artifacts (1 = none, 3 = extended). SNR, CNR and contrast values were derived from 37 target tumors in CBCT and MRI. Statistical analysis included the kappa test to determine interrater reliability, the Friedman’s test for the inter-modality comparison evaluating tumor visibility in DSA and CBCT as well as for quantitative assessment. Post hoc analysis included the Wilcoxon signed-rank test. p values < 0.05 were considered significant. Results: Ninety percentage of target tumors were rated as visible in CBCT and 37.5% in DSA (p < 0.001). 70.1% of pre-interventionally detected hypovascularized tumors were depicted with CBCT and 31.2% by DSA (p < 0.001). 7.8% of known tumors were outside the FOV. Quantitative assessment showed higher image contrasts in CBCT (1.91 ± 7.01) compared to hepatobiliary-phase MRI (0.29 ± 0.14, p = 0.003) and to portal-venous (p.v.) MRI (0.31 ± 0.13, p < 0.001), but higher CNR for MRI (1.18 ± 0.80; 13.92 ± 15.82; 13.79 ± 6.65). Conclusion: In conclusion, the split-bolus single-phase CBCT detects significantly more hypovascularized liver tumors compared to DSA performed through the proper hepatic artery with high image contrasts. Level of Evidence: Level III, diagnostic study.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗