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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Numerical modeling of a proof-of-principle experiment on optical stochastic cooling at an electron storage ring

Cooling of beams circulating in storage rings is critical for many applications including particle colliders and synchrotron light sources. A method enabling unprecedented beam-cooling rates, optical stochastic cooling (OSC), was recently demonstrated in the Integrable Optics Test Accelerator (IOTA) electron storage ring at Fermilab [J. Jarvis , ]. This paper describes the numerical implementation of the OSC process in the particle-tracking program and discusses the validation of the developed model with available experimental data. The model is also employed to highlight some features associated with different modes of operation of OSC. The developed simulation tool should be valuable in guiding future configurations of optical stochastic cooling and, more broadly, modeling self-field-based beam manipulations. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of GlassNet for physics-informed machine learning of glass stability and glass-forming ability

Glassy materials form the basis of many modern applications, including nuclear waste immobilization, touch-screen displays, and optical fibers, and also hold great potential for future medical and environmental applications. However, their structural complexity and large composition space make design and optimization challenging for certain applications. Of particular importance for glass processing and design is an estimate of a given composition's glass-forming ability (GFA). However, there remain many open questions regarding the underlying physical mechanisms of glass formation, especially in oxide glasses. It is apparent that a proxy for GFA would be highly useful in glass processing and design, but identifying such a surrogate property has proven itself to be difficult. While glass stability (GS) parameters have historically been used as a GFA surrogate, recent research has demonstrated that most of these parameters are not accurate predictors of the GFA of oxide glasses. Here, in this work, we explore the application of an open-source pre-trained neural network model, GlassNet, that can predict the characteristic temperatures necessary to compute GS with reasonable performance and assess the feasibility of using these physics-informed machine learning (PIML)-predicted GS parameters to estimate GFA. In doing so, we track the uncertainties at each step of the computation—from the original ML prediction errors to the compounding of errors during GS estimation, and finally to the final estimation of GFA. While GlassNet exhibits reasonable accuracy on all individual properties, we observe a large compounding of error in the combination of these individual predictions for the PIML prediction of GS, finding that random forest models offer similar accuracy to GlassNet. We also break down the performance of GlassNet on different glass families and find that the error in GS prediction is correlated with the error in crystallization peak temperature prediction. Lastly, we utilize this finding to assess the relationship between top-performing GS parameters and GFA for two ternary glass systems: sodium borosilicate and sodium iron phosphate glasses. We conclude that to obtain true ML predictive capability of GFA, significantly more data needs to be collected.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2014

Overview of Aviation Fuel Markets for Biofuels Stakeholders

This report is for biofuels stakeholders interested the U.S. aviation fuel market. Jet fuel production represents about 10% of U.S. petroleum refinery production. Exxon Mobil, Chevron, and BP top producers, and Texas, Louisiana, and California are top producing states. Distribution of fuel primarily involves transport from the Gulf Coast to other regions. Fuel is transported via pipeline (60%), barges on inland waterways (30%), tanker truck (5%), and rail (5%). Airport fuel supply chain organization and fuel sourcing may involve oil companies, airlines, airline consortia, airport owners and operators, and airport service companies. Most fuel is used for domestic, commercial, civilian flights. Energy efficiency has substantially improved due to aircraft fleet upgrades and advanced flight logistic improvements. Jet fuel prices generally track prices of crude oil and other refined petroleum products, whose prices are more volatile than crude oil price. The single largest expense for airlines is jet fuel, so its prices and persistent price volatility impact industry finances. Airlines use various strategies to manage aviation fuel price uncertainty. The aviation industry has established goals to mitigate its greenhouse gas emissions, and initial estimates of biojet life cycle greenhouse gas emissions exist. Biojet fuels from Fischer-Tropsch and hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids processes have ASTM standards. The commercial aviation industry and the U.S. Department of Defense have used aviation biofuels. Additional research is needed to assess the environmental, economic, and financial potential of biojet to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate long-term upward price trends, fuel price volatility, or both.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2014

UPR/Mayaguez High Energy Physics

This year the University of Puerto Rico at Mayaguez (UPRM) High Energy Physics (HEP) group continued with the ongoing research program outlined in the grant proposal. The program is centered on the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment at the proton-proton (pp) collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) at CERN in Geneva, Switzerland. The main research focus is on data analysis and on the preparation for the High Luminosity (HL) LHC or experiment detector upgrade. The physics data analysis included Higgs Doublet Search and measurement of the (1) Λ 0 b branching fraction, (2) B meson mass, and (3) hyperon θ - b lifetime. The detector upgrade included work on the preparations for the Forward Pixel (FPIX) detector Silicon Sensor Testing in a production run at Fermilab. In addition, the group has taken responsibilities on the Software Release through our former research associate Dr. Eric Brownson who acted until last December as a Level Two Offline Manager for the CMS Upgrade. In support of the CMS data analysis activities carried out locally, the UPRM group has built and maintains an excellent Tier3 analysis center in Mayaguez. This allowed us to analyze large data samples and to continue the development of algorithms for the upgrade tracking robustness we started several years ago, and we plan to resume in the near future. This project involves computer simulation of the radiation damage to be suffered at the higher luminosities of the upgraded LHC. This year we continued to serve as a source of outstanding students for the field of high energy physics. Three of our graduate students finished their MS work in May, 2014, Their theses research were on data analysis of heavy quark b-physics. All of them are currently enrolled at Ph.D. physics program across the nation. One of them (Hector Moreno) at New Mexico University (Hector Moreno), one at University of New Hampshire (Sandra Santiesteban) and one at University of Puerto Rico-Rio Piedras (Carlos Malca). The students H. Moreno and C. Malca has been directly supervised by Dr. Mendez and S. Santiesteban supervised by Dr. Ramirez. During the last 13 years, our group have graduated 23 MS students on experimental High Energy Physics data analysis and applied hardware techniques. Most of the students have been supported by DOE grants, included this grant. Since 2001, Dr. Mendez have directly supervised eleven students, Dr. Ramirez three students and the former PI (Dr. Lopez) nine students. These theses work are fully documented in the group web page (http://charma.uprm.edu). The High Energy Physics group at Mayaguez is small and presently consists of three Physics faculty members, the Senior Investigators Dr. Hector Mendez (Professor) and Dr. Juan Eduardo Ramirez (Professor), and Dr. Sudhir Malik who was just hired in July 2014. Dr. Ramirez is in charge of the UPRM Tier-3 computing and will be building the network bandwidth infrastructure for the campus, while Dr. Mendez will continues his effort in finishing the heavy quark physics data analysis and moving to work on SUSY analysis for the 2015 data. Our last grant application in 2012 was awarded only for 2013-2014. As a result our postdoc position was lost last month of March. Since then, we have hired Dr. Malik as a new faculty in order to reinforce the group and to continue our efforts with the CMS experiment. Our plan is to hire another junior faculty in the next two years to strengthen the HEP group even further. Dr. Mendez continues with QuarkNet activities involving an ever larger group of high school physics teachers from all around Puerto Rico.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Method for Estimation and Suppression of Quasi-Periodic Noise

Electromagnetic interference, particularly from sources such as light fixtures and power supplies, negatively affects the function and performance of electronic systems. This noise, often quasi-periodic in nature, contains harmonic structure that can be used for noise estimation and suppression. This work proposes a novel method for tracking and filtering such noise signals that reduces the comb filter bandwidth required for noise estimation and suppression by tracking the instantaneous frequency of the fundamental component.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Benchmark Exercise Report for Experimental Study of Bubble Scrubbing in Sodium Pool

Mechanistic source term (MST) analyses are likely to be an important part of advanced reactor licensing applications. For the purpose, an MST analysis code applicable to newly introduced advanced reactors, called SRT (Simplified Radionuclide Transport) code, has been developed by Argonne National Laboratory. SRT can track overall behaviors of radionuclides especially in metal fuel-based sodium fast reactors (SFRs) and microreactors. Throughout the simulation, migration inside fuel pins before failure, interaction with coolant (for SFR), removal/leakage in cover gas and containment (or confinement), and environmental dose impacts are considered alongside radioactive decay for short-lived nuclides. Among the postulated process, pool scrubbing phenomenon, especially under sodium pool condition, has been identified as high importance with limited supportive data. The phenomenon plays a crucial role in assessing the degree of radiological impacts as radioactive aerosols or vapors are efficiently and effectively removed during the process. To provide validation basis for SRT in assessing pool scrubbing performance inside sodium pools, the University of Wisconsin-Madison performed tests including extensive parametric effects. Separate effect tests were conducted to directly evaluate the SRT models and to estimate degree of contribution by each contributing factor. Specifically, bubble size, aerosol size, aerosol density, aerosol concentration, pool depth, system temperature, and bubble swarm effects were considered. According to the parametric effects, decontamination performance enhances with decreasing bubble size, large density, and deeper pool height. Aerosol concentration provides no effect for the whole range of interest, and pool temperature variation shows minor effects under the considered temperature condition. When multiple bubbles are injected generating a bubble swarm condition, DF performance further enhances by bubble interactions and turbulence characteristics. The measurement shows the exceptional importance of aerosol size range considered, with the lowest decontamination, where most radionuclides are expected to escape.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1983

Crustal geomagnetic field - Two-dimensional intermediate-wavelength spatial power spectra

Two-dimensional Fourier spatial power spectra of equivalent magnetization values are presented for a region that includes a large portion of the western United States. The magnetization values were determined by inversion of POGO satellite data, assuming a magnetic crust 40 km thick, and were located on an 11 x 10 array with 300 km grid spacing. The spectra appear to be in good agreement with values of the crustal geomagnetic field spatial power spectra given by McLeod and Coleman (1980) and with the crustal field model given by Serson and Hannaford (1957). The spectra show evidence of noise at low frequencies in the direction along the satellite orbital track (N-S). indicating that for this particular data set additional filtering would probably be desirable. These findings illustrate the value of two-dimensional spatial power spectra both for describing the geomagnetic field statistically and as a guide for diagnosing possible noise sources.

Mcleod, M. G.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Differential tracking data types for accurate and efficient Mars planetary navigation

Ways in which high-accuracy differential observations of two or more deep space vehicles can dramatically extend the power of earth-based tracking over conventional range and Doppler tracking are discussed. Two techniques - spacecraft-spacecraft differential very long baseline interferometry (S/C-S/C Delta(VLBI)) and same-beam interferometry (SBI) - are discussed. The tracking and navigation capabilities of conventional range, Doppler, and quasar-relative Delta(VLBI) are reviewed, and the S/C-S/C Delta (VLBI) and SBI types are introduced. For each data type, the formation of the observable is discussed, an error budget describing how physical error sources manifest themselves in the observable is presented, and potential applications of the technique for Space Exploration Initiative scenarios are examined. Requirements for spacecraft and ground systems needed to enable and optimize these types of observations are discussed.

Edwards, C. D., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Airborne Precision Spacing: A Trajectory-based Approach to Improve Terminal Area Operations

Airborne Precision Spacing has been developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) over the past seven years as an attempt to benefit from the capabilities of the flight deck to precisely space their aircraft relative to another aircraft. This development has leveraged decades of work on improving terminal area operations, especially the arrival phase. With APS operations, the air traffic controller instructs the participating aircraft to achieve an assigned inter-arrival spacing interval at the runway threshold, relative to another aircraft. The flight crew then uses airborne automation to manage the aircraft s speed to achieve the goal. The spacing tool is designed to keep the speed within acceptable operational limits, promote system-wide stability, and meet the assigned goal. This reallocation of tasks with the controller issuing strategic goals and the flight crew managing the tactical achievement of those goals has been shown to be feasible through simulation and flight test. A precision of plus or minus 2-3 seconds is generally achievable. Simulations of long strings of arriving traffic show no signs of instabilities or compression waves. Subject pilots have rated the workload to be similar to current-day operations and eye-tracking data substantiate this result. This paper will present a high-level review of research results over the past seven years from a variety of tests and experiments. The results will focus on the precision and accuracy achievable, flow stability and some major sources of uncertainty. The paper also includes a summary of the flight crew s procedures and interface and a brief concept overview.

Barmore, Bryan↗
DOE OSTI2018

Gamma-ray tracking for high energy gamma-ray imaging in pixelated CdZnTe

Sequencing gamma-ray interactions within a detector system is an integral component of Compton imaging. In detectors with poor timing resolution compared to the time interval of successive interactions, algorithms which order gamma-ray interactions must be implemented using only energy and position information. This work examines previous algorithms and inspects interaction kinematics to increase the sequencing algorithm’s speed and effectiveness. The proposed method, in which the first interaction is assumed to deposit the largest energy, has improved sequencing performance by greater than 20% for full energy gamma ray depositions larger than 1 MeV that do not contain pair-production. In addition, the algorithm shows a decrease in computational costs for sequence reconstruction to allow for better real time reconstruction. Experimental results show an almost twofold increase in the signal to noise ratio (SNR) for simple backprojection images of a 22 Na source. Additional measurements of the 2.2 MeV gamma rays from H 1 (n,$\gamma$)D 2 neutron capture demonstrates the proposed algorithm’s superior performance.

3D position sensitive CdZnTe↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatio-temporal multivariate cluster evolution analysis for detecting and tracking climate impacts

Recent years have seen a growing concern about climate change and its impacts. While Earth System Models (ESMs) can be invaluable tools for studying the impacts of climate change, the complex coupling processes encoded in ESMs and the large amounts of data produced by these models, together with the high internal variability of the Earth system, can obscure important source-to-impact relationships. Here, this paper presents a novel and efficient unsupervised data-driven approach for detecting statistically-significant impacts and tracing spatio-temporal source-impact pathways in the climate through a unique combination of ideas from anomaly detection, clustering and Natural Language Processing (NLP). Using as an exemplar the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, we demonstrate that the proposed approach is capable of detecting known post-eruption impacts/events. We additionally describe a methodology for extracting meaningful sequences of post-eruption impacts/events by using NLP to efficiently mine frequent multivariate cluster evolutions, which can be used to confirm or discover the chain of physical processes between a climate source and its impact(s).

Anomaly detection↗
DOE OSTI2019

Radiokrypton unveils dual moisture sources of a deep desert aquifer

We report that in arid regions, groundwater is a vital resource that can also provide a long-term record of the regional water cycle. However, the use of groundwater as a paleoclimate proxy has been limited by the complex hydrology and the lack of appropriate chronometers to determine the recharge time without complication. Applying 81 Kr, a long-lived radioisotope tracer, we investigate the paleohydroclimate and subsurface water storage properties of the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer in the Negev Desert, Israel. Based on the spatial distributions of stable isotopes and the abundance of 81 Kr, we resolve subsurface mixing and identify two distinct moisture sources of the recharge: one recent (<38 ky ago) from the Mediterranean and the other 361 ± 30 ky ago from the tropical Atlantic, both of which occurred under conditions of low orbital eccentricity comparable to that of the present. The recent recharge provided by the moisture from Mediterranean cyclones can be attributed to the southward shift of the storm track during the Last Glacial Maximum, and the earlier recharge can be attributed to moisture from the Atlantic delivered as tropical plumes under a climate colder than the present. Furthermore, the residence time of the latter reveals that tectonically active terrain can store groundwater for an unexpectedly long period, likely due to strongly attenuated groundwater flow across the fault zones. Lastly with this tracer, groundwater can now serve as a direct record of paleoprecipitation over land and of subsurface water storage from the mid-Pleistocene and onward.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Oxygen Consumption as a Sensitive Measure of Electrical Cable Polymer Insulation Degradation

Polymers used as dielectric materials in nuclear grade electrical cables, such as cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) and ethylene-propylene rubber (EPR), are long-lived and durable. Estimating the decades-long useful service life of polymers experimentally in a feasible timeframe of weeks or months requires greatly accelerated aging in the laboratory at elevated temperatures and/or gamma dose rates. Many limitations of accelerated aging, such as due to artefacts of the process including diffusion limited oxidation and dose rate effects, have been identified that can make accurate lifetime prediction at service conditions challenging. This can be due to differences in degradation mechanisms between rapid and extended aging or to the presence of induction periods during which early aging is undetectable using common metrics of polymer insulation characterization such as tensile elongation at break. Conceptually, an ideal measure of aging would track clearly and predictably with material changes throughout the lifecycle of the evolving material state from early aging through end of useful life. With such a metric accelerated aging could be performed at much milder conditions, conditions closer to those found in long term service, and end of life calculated from the early data. Oxygen consumption has previously been proposed as a sensitive measure of insulation polymer oxidation that might meet such desirable characteristics. In this work, nuclear cable insulation samples of the two most common types, XLPE and EPR, from two of the most sourced manufacturers, RSCC and The Okonite Company, were subjected to gamma irradiation at dose rates of 100, 200, and 300 Gy/hr for up to 42 days at 26°C. The aged samples were used to evaluate oxygen consumption as a sensitive measure of aging for these materials and these conditions. For comparison and validation, the aged samples were also characterized using the more conventional tests of mass change, density, carbonyl index, and yellowness index. For both materials, oxygen consumption during irradiation was found to track consistently with applied dose—oxygen consumption rate was linear with time. Mass change and carbonyl index were also clearly proportional to exposure dose. Yellowness index, a surface sensitive measure, was observed to increase linearly with dose at low exposure levels before plateauing. Sample density was not observed to change under the conditions explored. Oxygen consumption was found to be a particularly sensitive metric to measure the degradation of polymeric cable insulation exposed to radiation. Oxygen consumption was compared to Arrhenius and time-temperature-superposition methods for activation energy calculation using literature date and found to be a useful and viable alternative for lifetime prediction. The techniques developed in this work are anticipated to be valuable in the estimation of insulation aging rates under mild conditions approaching service conditions. Direction comparison of useful life prediction by oxygen consumption with prediction via Arrhenius methodology for thermal aging and existing methods for radiation and combined thermal/radiation aging would serve to further validate this promising approach and refine our understanding of material-specific aging rates.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Three-Dimensional Imaging through Shock-Waves at Ultra-High Speed

Imaging diagnostics that utilize coherent light, such as digital in-line holography, are important for object sizing and tracking applications. However, in explosive, supersonic, or hypersonic environments, gas-phase shocks impart imaging distortions that obscure internal objects. To circumvent this problem, some research groups have conducted experiments in vacuum, which inherently alters the physical behavior. Other groups have utilized single-shot flash x-ray or high-speed synchrotron x-ray sources to image through shock-waves. In this work, we combine digital in-line holography with a phase conjugate mirror to reduce the phase distortions caused by shock-waves. The technique operates by first passing coherent light through the shock-wave phase-distortion and then a phase-conjugate mirror. The phase-conjugate mirror is generated by a four-wave mixing process to produce a return beam that has the exact opposite phase-delay as the forward beam. Therefore, by passing the return beam back through the phase-distortion, the phase delays picked up during the initial pass are canceled, thereby producing improved coherent imaging. In this work, we implement phase conjugate digital in-line holography (PCDIH) for the first time with a nanosecond pulse-burst laser and ultra-high-speed cameras. This technique enables accurate measurement of the three-dimensional position and velocity of objects through shock-wave distortions at video rates up to 5 MHz. This technology is applied to improve three-dimensional imaging in a variety of environments from imaging supersonic shock-waves through turbulence, sizing objects through laser-spark plasma-generated shock-waves, and tracking explosively generated hypersonic fragments. Theoretical foundations and additional capabilities of this technique are also discussed.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2014

Tracking Contributions to Human Body Burden of Environmental Chemicals by Correlating Environmental Measurements with Biomarkers

The work addresses current knowledge gaps regarding causes for correlations between environmental and biomarker measurements and explores the underappreciated role of variability in disaggregating exposure attributes that contribute to biomarker levels. Our simulation-based study considers variability in environmental and food measurements, the relative contribution of various exposure sources (indoors and food), and the biological half-life of a compound, on the resulting correlations between biomarker and environmental measurements. For two hypothetical compounds whose half-lives are on the order of days for one and years for the other, we generate synthetic daily environmental concentrations and food exposures with different day-to-day and population variability as well as different amounts of home- and food-based exposure. Assuming that the total intake results only from home-based exposure and food ingestion, we estimate timedependent biomarker concentrations using a one-compartment pharmacokinetic model. Box plots of modeled R 2 values indicate that although the R 2 correlation between wipe and biological (e.g., serum) measurements is within the same range for the two compounds, the relative contribution of the home exposure to the total exposure could differ by up to 20%, thus providing the relative indication of their contribution to body burden. The novel method introduced in this paper provides insights for evaluating scenarios or experiments where sample, exposure, and compound variability must be weighed in order to interpret associations between exposure data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Numerical and experimental comparison of tracer particle and averaging techniques for particle velocities in a fluidized bed

Particle tracking methods using emitted radiation show potential for following motion in opaque systems such as granular materials. Leading examples are Positron Emission Particle Tracking (PEPT) and Radioactive Particle Tracking (RPT). The application of such techniques sometimes requires the use of tracer particles which differ in size, density and/or shape from the particles of interest. This study investigates the extent to which such differences affect the result of the study by using the open source MFIX-DEM software to model particle motion in the travelling fluidized bed experiments. The results are compared with previously reported experimental studies using both PEPT and RPT. Consistent numerical results were obtained for both PEPT and RPT tracer particles. In determining averaged velocities using such techniques, there is a choice to be made between averaging velocities of particles crossing a virtual plane over a period of time (the “face-average” approach) or those passing through a defined volume over time (the “volume-average” approach). The differences between results obtained with these two methods are shown to be significant in this case, for both computation and experiment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of azimuthal anisotropy of muons from charm and bottom hadrons in Pb+Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 5.02 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Azimuthal anisotropies of muons from charm and bottom hadron decays are measured in Pb+Pb collisions at s NN = 5.02 TeV . The data were collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider in 2015 and 2018 with integrated luminosities of 0.5 nb - 1 and 1.4 n b - 1 , respectively. The kinematic selection for heavy-flavor muons requires transverse momentum 4 <lt; p T < 30 GeV and pseudorapidity | η | < 2.0 . The dominant sources of muons in this p T range are semi-leptonic decays of charm and bottom hadrons. These heavy-flavor muons are separated from light-hadron decay muons and punch-through hadrons using the momentum imbalance between the measurements in the tracking detector and in the muon spectrometers. Azimuthal anisotropies, quantified by flow coefficients, are measured via the event-plane method for inclusive heavy-flavor muons as a function of the muon p T and in intervals of Pb+Pb collision centrality. Heavy-flavor muons are separated into contributions from charm and bottom hadron decays using the muon transverse impact parameter with respect to the event primary vertex. Non-zero elliptic ( v 2 ) and triangular ( v 3 ) flow coefficients are extracted for charm and bottom muons, with the charm muon coefficients larger than those for bottom muons for all Pb+Pb collision centralities. The results indicate substantial modification to the charm and bottom quark angular distributions through interactions in the quark-gluon plasma produced in these Pb+Pb collisions, with smaller modifications for the bottom quarks as expected theoretically due to their larger mass.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Open‐Source, Physics‐Based, Tropical Cyclone Downscaling Model With Intensity‐Dependent Steering

Abstract An open‐source, physics‐based tropical cyclone (TC) downscaling model is developed, in order to generate a large climatology of TCs. The model is composed of three primary components: (a) a random seeding process that determines genesis, (b) an intensity‐dependent beta‐advection model that determines the track, and (c) a non‐linear differential equation set that determines the intensification rate. The model is entirely forced by the large‐scale environment. Downscaling ERA5 reanalysis data shows that the model is generally able to reproduce observed TC climatology, such as the global seasonal cycle, genesis locations, track density, and lifetime maximum intensity distributions. Inter‐annual variability in TC count and power‐dissipation is also well captured, on both basin‐wide and global scales. Regional TC hazard estimated by this model is also analyzed using return period maps and curves. In particular, the model is able to reasonably capture the observed return period curves of landfall intensity in various sub‐basins around the globe. The incorporation of an intensity‐dependent steering flow is shown to lead to regionally dependent changes in power dissipation and return periods. Advantages and disadvantages of this model, compared to other downscaling models, are also discussed.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗