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Near-Efficient and Non-Asymptotic Multiway Inference

We establish non-asymptotic efficiency guarantees for tensor decomposition–based inference in count data models. Under a Poisson framework, we consider two related goals: (i) parametric inference , the estimation of the full distributional parameter tensor, and (ii) multiway analysis , the recovery of its canonical polyadic (CP) decomposition factors. Our main result shows that in the rank-one setting, a rank-constrained maximum-likelihood estimator achieves multiway analysis with variance matching the Cramér–Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) up to absolute constants and logarithmic factors. This provides a general framework for studying “near-efficient” multiway estimators in finite-sample settings. For higher ranks, we illustrate that our multiway estimator may not attain the CRLB; nevertheless, CP-based parametric inference remains nearly minimax optimal, with error bounds that improve on prior work by offering more favorable dependence on the CP rank. Numerical experiments corroborate near-efficiency in the rank-one case and highlight the efficiency gap in higher-rank scenarios.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Study on Effect of Tuning Capacitor in Dynamic Radioisotope Power Systems

This study presents the effect of tuning capacitors on the power factor and power output of a gas spring-based free-piston Stirling convertor—Advanced Stirling convertor—when the convertor runs on a forced-oscillation type controller. More specifically, this paper studies how off-nominal tuning capacitance values affects the Stirling convertor in terms of the piston stability and electrical power output, when the convertor is operated by forced-oscillation type controller, such as an alternating current bus controller, and operating conditions of the convertor are unchanged. It has been widely known that tuning capacitors are important circuit components to stabilize the piston amplitude of the free-piston Stirling convertors and correct the power factor for high electrical power output. Recent modeling analysis conducted by NASA Glenn Research Center, however, suggests that while the stability of the convertor is affected by the tuning capacitor value, the power factor and the electrical power output are not affected by the tuning capacitor value, as long as the convertor is controlled by a forced-oscillation controller and the convertor operating conditions, such as the hot-end/cold-end temperatures, piston amplitude, and operating frequency, are unchanged. To verify the modeling analysis results, a test setup is devised where the convertor is controlled by a forced-oscillation controller and the piston amplitude, hot-end temperature, and charge pressure are controlled to 4mm, 760˚C, and 485psig, respectively, while the tuning capacitor value is changed from its nominal value, 840μF to 1040μF and 1240μF. Furthermore, the vibration test results of the same convertor with the three tuning capacitor values are also presented in this paper to show the effect of the tuning capacitor value on the convertor stability. The test results suggest that when the convertor is controlled by a forced-oscillation, the tuning capacitor value determines the convertor stability but not the power factor nor electrical power output. Therefore, the tuning capacitance value in forced-oscillation controllers should be determined based on the convertor stability, system mass, and volume.

Free-Piston Stirling Convertor Controller↗

Power Operations of the Mars Exploration Rovers

The rovers of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) project, Spirit (MER-A) and Opportunity (MER-B), safely landed on the surface of Mars three weeks apart during January 2004. Spirit and Opportunity were built and operated by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), which is managed by the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) for NASA. Spirit landed at Gusev Crater, 14.8 degrees south of the equator, and operated continuously on the surface of Mars from January 4, 2004 until last contact from Spirit on March 22, 2010. Opportunity landed at Meridiani Planum, a location 2.5 degrees south of the Martian equator. Opportunity operated continuously on the Martian surface from January 25, 2004 until the last received transmission from Opportunity on June 10, 2018. The goal of the MER project was to determine if Mars ever had a habitable environment, in particular, if it ever had water. During their missions, both Spirit and Opportunity found evidence that liquid water once flowed on the surface of Mars. Both Spirit and Opportunity used a 1.33 m2 triple-junction solar array as their power sources. Based on observations of the original Mars rover, the Sojourner rover of the Mars Pathfinder mission that landed on Mars on July 4, 1997, the expectation was that the Martian dust would rapidly accumulate on the solar arrays of Spirit and Opportunity, and that the rovers would not have enough energy to continue operations after 90 Martian days (sols). Instead, due in part to lower dust accumulation rates than expected and numerous dust cleaning events, the Spirit and Opportunity rovers continued to operate on the Martian surface for over 2000 sols (MER-A) and 5000 sols (MER-B), respectively. During this time, the rovers experienced multiple Martian winters and several dust storms. Because the sources of solar array energy loss were known, the solar array energy output offered a method to scientifically estimate the loading and aeolian removal of dust from the solar arrays each sol. The MER Power operations team called this value that they calculated the solar array Dust Factor (DF). Dust Factor was defined as the fraction of sunlight that penetrates the accumulated dust on the surface of the solar array. A Dust Factor of 1.0 would indicate that the solar array was perfectly clean. A Dust Factor of 0.6 would indicate that only 60% of the available sunlight was able to penetrate the accumulated dust on the solar arrays. The MER Power subsystem operations team used the Multi-Mission Power Analysis Tool (MMPAT) to perform these Dust Factor calculations. The MMPAT software tool modeled the behavior of the solar arrays and the batteries as they interacted with the spacecraft power loads over the mission timeline. MMPAT also had knowledge (through telemetry and user inputs) of telemetered Power subsystem voltages and currents, atmospheric opacity (Tau), rover surface location, rover attitude, the planetary tilt and distance of Mars from the sun based on day of year, the instantaneous elevation of the sun based on time of day, temperatures (internal and external), terrain masking, and shadowing (due to the camera mast and antennas). Once all of the known sources of array energy loss are accounted, the remaining difference between the expected array energy and the actual array energy determines the solar array Dust Factor. The assumptions made while determining the Dust Factor are 1) that the single measured atmospheric opacity value (Tau) is constant over the course of the entire sol, 2) there is no measurable solar cell degradation, 3) there are no shorted strings and therefore, 4) all unexpected solar array energy losses are due to accumulated dust on the solar array. Although it cannot provide an absolute measure of dust loading, the determination of solar array Dust Factor provides a useful way of tracking dust accumulation and aeolian dust removal trends on Martian spacecraft. Any spacecraft on the Martian surface is vulnerable to dust, especially solar-powered spacecraft. The Spirit and Opportunity rovers were operational on the Martian surface for much longer than expected due in part to aeolian removal of dust from their solar arrays. The first few dust removal events were a pleasant surprise to the MER operations teams; however, over time a pattern began to arise. In over three Mars Years on the surface, the Power operations team tracked the solar array Dust Factor at Gusev Crater (location of MER-A) and observed that there were several significant dust removal and deposition events in Mars Year (MY) 27, even in the absence of a large dust storm. In MY 28 at Gusev Crater, the large atmospheric opacity (Tau) increase lagged significant dust removal events. Overall at Gusev Crater, there was a pattern of steady dust accumulation on the solar arrays, with a small number of significant dust cleaning events. At Meridiani Planum, where Opportunity rover operated for over seven Mars Years (late MY 26 to mid MY 34), a clear and consistent pattern of dust movement emerged. Meridiani Planum had a predictable, seasonally dependent pattern of gradual and continuous dust accumulation and removal. In summary, this paper explains the reasons for the development of the solar array Dust Factor and how it was used in mission operations. In particular, this paper describes the MMPAT software package, how it models array energy, including the important assumptions, model inputs and sources of error. And finally, this paper will show how the calculated solar array Dust Factor was used at Gusev Crater and Meridiani Planum to predict dust accumulation rates and weather patterns, and the importance of this generated data set for current and future solar- powered missions to Mars, such as the InSight lander and the planned Mars Sample Return rover.

Chin, Keith B.↗

Investigations on the Thermal Stability and Kinetics of Biolubricants Synthesized from Different Types of Vegetable Oils

Petroleum-based lubricants raise environmental concerns due to their non-biodegradability and toxicity, whereas biobased lubricants underperform owing to low thermal stability. This study examined and compared three vegetable oils, along with their chemically modified versions, to better understand their suitability as biolubricants. High oleic soybean oil (HOSOY), regular soybean oil (RSOY), and waste cooking oil (WCO) were subjected to chemical modification, where isopropyl groups were attached to the fatty acid chains of the oils to produce branched oils, i.e., b-HOSOY, b-RSOY, and b-WCO. The detailed kinetic study of each regular and modified sample was investigated using thermogravimetric analysis. The kinetic parameters, such as the activation energies, reaction rate, and pre-exponential factor, were generated via Friedman methods. The differential thermal gravimetric (DTG) analysis showed low volatilization at the onset temperature in each modified oil as compared with the unmodified samples under an oxidative environment. Furthermore, the comparative kinetic studies demonstrated the enhanced thermoxidative stability of the modified products relative to their unaltered counterparts. Among the tested oils, the b-RSOY showed an average activation energy of 325 kJ/mol, followed by the b-WCO: 300 kJ/mol and the b-HOSOY: 251 kJ/mol, indicating the most stable modified product under an oxidative environment. For all the samples, the pre-exponential factors were in good agreement with the activation energies, which validates that finding the pre-exponential components is crucial to the kinetic analysis.

Sarker, Majher I. (ORCID:0000000299509274)↗

Preparation and characterizaton of CaO nanoparticle for biodiesel production

Nanoparticle of CaO from calcium Nitrate (CaO/CaN) and Snail shell (CaO/SS) are successfully synthesized by method as described in the literature and used as an active and stable catalyst for the biodiesel production. These catalysts are characterized by Fourier-transform infrared spectra (FT-IR), X-ray diffraction (XRD), and thermal gravimetric analysis (TGA). The average crystalline size in nanometer was also calculated by Debye–Scherrer equation. The performance of the CaO/CaN and CaO/SS were tested for their catalytic activity via transesterification process and it was found that biodiesel yield has been increased from 93 to 96%. The optimum conditions for the highest yield were 8wt% catalyst loading, 65°C temperature, 12:1 methanol/oil molar ratio, and 6 h for reaction time. The nano catalyst from snail shell exhibits excellent catalytic activity and stability for the transesterification reaction, which suggested that this catalyst would be potentially used as a solid base nano catalyst for biodiesel production. In order to examine the reusability of catalyst developed from snail shell, five transesterification reaction cycles were also performed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Stress analysis of cracks

Elastic stress analyses of cracked bodies represented by stress intensity factor method - fracture mechanics

STRESS ANALYSIS↗

Technical Note: Introduction of variance component analysis to setup error analysis in radiotherapy

Purpose: The purpose of this technical note is to introduce variance component analysis to the estimation of systematic and random components in setup error of radiotherapy. Methods: Balanced data according to the one-factor random effect model were assumed. Results: Analysis-of-variance (ANOVA)-based computation was applied to estimate the values and their confidence intervals (CIs) for systematic and random errors and the population mean of setup errors. The conventional method overestimates systematic error, especially in hypofractionated settings. The CI for systematic error becomes much wider than that for random error. The ANOVA-based estimation can be extended to a multifactor model considering multiple causes of setup errors (e.g., interpatient, interfraction, and intrafraction). Conclusions: Variance component analysis may lead to novel applications to setup error analysis in radiotherapy.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Static analysis techniques for semiautomatic synthesis of message passing software skeletons

The design of high-performance computing architectures demands performance analysis of large-scale parallel applications to derive various parameters concerning hardware design and software development. The process of performance analysis and benchmarking an application can be done in several ways with varying degrees of fidelity. One of the most cost-effective ways is to do a coarse-grained study of large-scale parallel applications through the use of program skeletons. The concept of a “program skeleton” that we discuss in this article is an abstracted program that is derived from a larger program where source code that is determined to be irrelevant is removed for the purposes of the skeleton. In this work, we develop a semiautomatic approach for extracting program skeletons based on compiler program analysis. Finally, we demonstrate correctness of our skeleton extraction process by comparing details from communication traces, as well as show the performance speedup of using skeletons by running simulations in the SST/macro simulator.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

LAI, EVI, NDVI, and kNDVI in 23 pantropical forests affected by 21 cyclones

Statement of purpose: Cyclones alter the function and composition of tropical forests, making effects of intensifying cyclones on carbon-rich forests a critical topic of study. Here, we quantified cyclone-induced damage and recovery of 21 cyclone disturbances affecting 23 pantropical forest sites between 1988-2017 utilizing leaf area index (LAI), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and transformed NDVI (kNDVI) values from Google Earth Engine. Field observations collected in a meta-analysis (Bomfim et al., 2022, in review) were used to ground-truth and test effects of soil resource availability and disturbance factors on damage and recovery. This meta-analysis also served as the basis to begin vegetation index extraction, utilizing unique site and date combinations, from tropical forests effect by cyclone disturbances. We began collecting NDVI (5km resolution) from the NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Version 5 data product (Vermote, 2019) for all case studies included, 42. Next, we began extracting Landsat data from Landsat 4, 5, and 8, courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey, in search of higher resolution data. We selected a 3 by 3 Landsat pixel area, leading to a 90m resolution data extraction. The specific imagery used includes Landsat 4 USGS Landsat 4 TM Collection 1 Tier 1 TOA (top of atmosphere) Reflectance, Landsat 5 USGS Landsat 5 TM (thematic mapper) Collection 1 Tier 1 TOA Reflectance, and Landsat 8 USGS Landsat 8 Collection 1 Tier 1 TOA Reflectance. Within Google Earth Engine, we selected the date and location (latitude and longitude), calculated NDVI, kNDVI, and EVI utilizing Landsat bands (see metadata_NGEE-tropics_cyclones), and extracted post- and pre-cyclone values for each case study to calculate cyclone-induced change in the vegetative index. Due to limited spatial resolution of Landsat remote sensing data, MODIS products were investigated next. First, the MOD13Q1.006 Terra Vegetation Indices 16-Day Global 250m product was used to extract 250m EVI and NDVI (Didan, 2015) and then the MCD15A3H.006 MODIS Leaf Area Index/FPAR 4-Day Global 500m product product was used to extract LAI 500m (Myneni et al., 2015). Pre- and post-cyclone values, change in the vegetative index, and standard deviation for all values are included in the main csv (see case_study_data.csv) for all vegetative indices collected, including LAI 500m, EVI 250m, NDVI 250m, NDVI 90m, kNDVI 90m, EVI 90m, and NDVI 5km. Lastly, recovery values were calculated utilizing a standardization method (see metadata_NGEE-tropics_cyclones) and recovery values for MODIS (see MODIS_recovery.csv) and Landsat (Landsat_recovery.csv) data are included.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Telemetry Monitoring and Display Using LabVIEW

The Measurement Technology Center of the Instrumentation Section configures automated data acquisition systems to meet the diverse needs of JPL's experimental research community. These systems are based on personal computers or workstations (Apple, IBM/Compatible, Hewlett-Packard, and Sun Microsystems) and often include integrated data analysis, visualization and experiment control functions in addition to data acquisition capabilities. These integrated systems may include sensors, signal conditioning, data acquisition interface cards, software, and a user interface. Graphical programming is used to simplify configuration of such systems. Employment of a graphical programming language is the most important factor in enabling the implementation of data acquisition, analysis, display and visualization systems at low cost. Other important factors are the use of commercial software packages and off-the-shelf data acquisition hardware where possible. Understanding the experimenter's needs is also critical. An interactive approach to user interface construction and training of operators is also important. One application was created as a result of a competative effort between a graphical programming language team and a text-based C language programming team to verify the advantages of using a graphical programming language approach. With approximately eight weeks of funding over a period of three months, the text-based programming team accomplished about 10% of the basic requirements, while the Macintosh/LabVIEW team accomplished about 150%, having gone beyond the original requirements to simulate a telemetry stream and provide utility programs. This application verified that using graphical programming can significantly reduce software development time. As a result of this initial effort, additional follow-on work was awarded to the graphical programming team.

graphical user interface LabVIEW graphical program↗

Preliminary Analysis of a Fully Solid State Magnetocaloric Refrigeration

Magnetocaloric refrigeration is an alternative refrigeration technology with significant potential energy savings compared to conventional vapor compression refrigeration technology. Most of the reported active magnetic regenerator (AMR) systems that operate based on the magnetocaloric effect use heat transfer fluid to exchange heat, which results in complicated mechanical subsystems and components such as rotating valves and hydraulic pumps. In this paper, we propose an alternative mechanism for heat transfer between the AMR and the heat source/sink. High-conductivity moving rods/sheets (e.g. copper, brass, iron, graphite, aluminum or composite structures from these) are utilized instead of heat transfer fluid significantly enhancing the heat transfer rate hence cooling/heating capacity. A one-dimensional model is developed to study the solid state AMR. In this model, the heat exchange between the solid-solid interfaces is modeled via a contact conductance, which depends on the interface apparent pressure, material hardness, thermal conductivity, surface roughness, surface slope between the interfaces, and material filled in the gap between the interfaces. Due to the tremendous impact of the heat exchange on the AMR cycle performance, a sensitivity analysis is conducted employing a response surface method, in which the apparent pressure, effective surface roughness and grease thermal conductivity are the uncertainty factors. COP and refrigeration capacity are presented as the response in the sensitivity analysis to reveal the important factors influencing the fully solid state AMR and optimize the solid state AMR efficiency. The performances of fully solid state AMR and traditional AMR are also compared and discussed in present work. The results of this study will provide general guidelines for designing high performance solid state AMR systems.

Abdelaziz, Omar↗

Neutronics Analysis of TREAT Multi-SERTTA Calibration Test Vehicle (Multi-SERTTA CAL)

Transient testing is a necessary step in the performance evaluation of Accident Tolerant Fuels (ATF) developed as part of the Fuel Cycle Research and Development Advanced Fuels Campaign initiated and supported by the United States Department of Energy (DOE-NE). These advanced fuels are expected to be used in future reactors or replace the current fuel design used in existing power reactors for enhanced performance and safety. Upon completion of a process proscribed by the National Environmental Policy Act, the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) facility, located at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), was chosen by DOE-NE to provide the desired specialized testing. TREAT has successfully operated from start-up in 1959 to 1994 when it was placed on operational stand-by. Careful preparations are being made for operational readiness and TREAT is projected to resume testing no later than 2018. Past TREAT testing primarily focused on sodium-cooled reactor fuels (SRF). Test vehicle designs varied to accommodate testing needs ranging from separate effects tests to integral tests approaching simulation of actual reactor environment conditions including forced convection cooling. The current focus on light water reactor (LWR) ATF requires design of new experiment vehicles to accommodate the water/steam environment and associated complexities regarding desired energy deposition into the specimen and proper containment. The first set of experiments in TREAT restart is expected to be conducted with the Multi-SERTTA (Static Environment Rodlet Transient Test Apparatuses). Difficult to quantify and calculate integral and time dependent effects inherent in transient testing limit predictive modeling capability; therefore, calibration testing in TREAT prior to the actual experiment is necessary to empirically determine the effectiveness of core-to-specimen power coupling in order to achieve the desired energy deposition into the test specimen during a nuclear power transient. This has been done in the past, in part, by evaluating the difference in energy deposition into dosimeter wires subjected to various TREAT time dependent power conditions. These calibration tests were typically conducted in a test vehicle neutronically similar to the actual test vehicle, but more simplistic in design in order to quickly retrieve and analyze dosimeter wires and minimize containment structure costs due to several trials. Prior calibration testing for SRF experiments could be conducted without coolant as sodium has no notable neutronic effect on the core-to-specimen power coupling factor (PCF). Such is not the case with LWR fuel where water serves as both moderator and coolant. This presents a design challenge as the calibration test vehicle must retain heated, high-pressure water to preserve neutronic equivalence representative of near prototypic reactor conditions while allowing for quick retrieval of dosimeters. The solution to this challenge comes in the form of a thin walled dry well positioned through the center of the basic Multi-SERTTA design. Test vehicle reactivity worth and PCF are two important factors with respect to ascertainment of neutronic equivalence. Similarity in test vehicle reactivity worth is desired to avoid the need to change operational core rod positions in TREAT which could significantly alter neutron flux distribution and consequently power distribution throughout the core and into the test specimen. The geometry and composition of various materials within the experiment containment structure can also significantly alter the quality of neutron signal delivery from the core to the test specimen. Introduction of an Inconel tube, albeit very thin, is expected to impact PCF. Simple modifications to the CAL design may compensate for the anticipated change. Evaluation of these factors and proposed modifications through neutronics analysis serves to inform experiment design and is a valuable tool towards achieving the optimal CAL design.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Diffuse continuum gamma rays from the Galaxy observed by COMPTEL

The diffuse Galactic continuum gamma-ray emission has been studied using the full Sky Survey from COMPTEL on the Compton Observatory CGRO. The diffuse emission appears to be visible in the whole 0.75-30 MeV range covered by the instrument, although a considerable contribution from unresolved point sources cannot be excluded. A correlation analysis using HI and CO surveys of the Galaxy is used to derive the Galactic emissivity spectrum, and this is consistent with a smooth continuation to the spectrum at higher energies derived by a similar analysis of COS-B data. The apparent conversion factor from integrated CO temperature to molecular hydrogen column density can also be determined from the correlation analysis. The value obtained is consistent with results from COS-B and other non-gamma-ray methods. Calculations of the emissivity spectrum from bremsstrahlung from a cosmic-ray electron spectrum based on propagation models are compared with the observations.

Strong, A. W.↗

Real-Time, Adaptive Radiological Anomaly Detection and Isotope Identification Using Non-Negative Matrix Factorization

Spectroscopic anomaly detection and isotope identification algorithms are integral components in nuclear nonproliferation applications such as search operations. The task is especially challenging in the case of mobile detector systems because the observed gamma-ray background changes more than for a static detector system, and a pretrained background model can easily find itself out of domain. The result is that algorithms may exceed their intended false alarm rate or sacrifice detection sensitivity to maintain the desired false alarm rate. Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is a powerful tool for spectral anomaly detection and identification, but, like many similar algorithms that rely on data-driven background models, in its conventional implementation, it is unable to update in real time to account for environmental changes that affect the background spectroscopic signature. Here, we have developed a novel NMF-based algorithm that periodically updates its background model to accommodate changing environmental conditions. The adaptive NMF algorithm involves fewer assumptions about its environment, making it more generalizable than existing NMF-based methods while maintaining or exceeding detection performance on simulated and real-world datasets.

Anomaly detection↗

miR-141-3p functions as a tumor suppressor modulating activating transcription factor 5 in glioma

Glioma is the most common malignant primary brain tumor which arises from the central nervous system. Our studies reported that an anti-apoptotic factor, activating transcription factor 5 (ATF5), is highly expressed in malignant glioma specimens and cell lines. Downregulation by dominant-negetive ATF5 could repress glioma cell proliferation and accelerate apoptosis. Here, we further investigate the upstream factor which regulates ATF5 expression. Bioinformatic analysis showed that ATF5 was a potential target of miR-141-3p. Luciferase reporter assay verified that miR-141-3p specifically targeted the ATF5 3′-UTR in glioma cells. Functional studied suggested that miR-141-3p overexpression inhibited proliferation and promoted apoptosis of glioma cells (U87MG and U251). Xenograft experiments proved the inhibition of miR-141-3p on glioma growth in vivo. Moreover, exogenous ATF5 without 3′-UTR restored the cell proliferation inhibition triggered by miR-141-3p. Taken together, we put forward that miR-141-3p is a new upstream target towards ATF5. It can serve as a crucial tumor suppressor in regulating the ATF5-regulated growth of malignant glioma. - Highlights: • ATF5 was highly expressed in gliomas and was essential for cell proliferation and apoptosis. • MiR-141-3p specifically targeted the ATF5 3′-UTR in glioma cells. • MiR-141-3p was significantly downregulated in glioma tissues and cell lines. • MiR-141-3p inhibited glioma growth through repressing ATF5 expression in vitro and in vivo. • Exogenous expression of ATF5 rescued cells from proliferation inhibition triggered by miR-141-3p.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Assessment of a remote sensing-based model for predicting malaria transmission risk in villages of Chiapas, Mexico

A blind test of two remote sensing-based models for predicting adult populations of Anopheles albimanus in villages, an indicator of malaria transmission risk, was conducted in southern Chiapas, Mexico. One model was developed using a discriminant analysis approach, while the other was based on regression analysis. The models were developed in 1992 for an area around Tapachula, Chiapas, using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite data and geographic information system functions. Using two remotely sensed landscape elements, the discriminant model was able to successfully distinguish between villages with high and low An. albimanus abundance with an overall accuracy of 90%. To test the predictive capability of the models, multitemporal TM data were used to generate a landscape map of the Huixtla area, northwest of Tapachula, where the models were used to predict risk for 40 villages. The resulting predictions were not disclosed until the end of the test. Independently, An. albimanus abundance data were collected in the 40 randomly selected villages for which the predictions had been made. These data were subsequently used to assess the models' accuracies. The discriminant model accurately predicted 79% of the high-abundance villages and 50% of the low-abundance villages, for an overall accuracy of 70%. The regression model correctly identified seven of the 10 villages with the highest mosquito abundance. This test demonstrated that remote sensing-based models generated for one area can be used successfully in another, comparable area.

Insect Vectors/growth & development↗

Proof-of-Concept Demonstrations for Computation-Based Human Reliability Analysis. Modeling Operator Performance During Flooding Scenarios

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program has the overall objective to help sustain the existing commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). To accomplish this program objective, there are multiple LWRS “pathways,” or research and development (R&D) focus areas. One LWRS focus area is called the Risk-Informed Safety Margin and Characterization (RISMC) pathway. Initial efforts under this pathway to combine probabilistic and plant multi-physics models to quantify safety margins and support business decisions also included HRA, but in a somewhat simplified manner. HRA experts at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) have been collaborating with other experts to develop a computational HRA approach, called the Human Unimodel for Nuclear Technology to Enhance Reliability (HUNTER), for inclusion into the RISMC framework. The basic premise of this research is to leverage applicable computational techniques, namely simulation and modeling, to develop and then, using RAVEN as a controller, seamlessly integrate virtual operator models (HUNTER) with 1) the dynamic computational MOOSE runtime environment that includes a full-scope plant model, and 2) the RISMC framework PRA models already in use. The HUNTER computational HRA approach is a hybrid approach that leverages past work from cognitive psychology, human performance modeling, and HRA, but it is also a significant departure from existing static and even dynamic HRA methods. This report is divided into five chapters that cover the development of an external flooding event test case and associated statistical modeling considerations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Improved Upper Limit on Degree-scale CMB B -mode Polarization Power from the 670 Square-degree POLARBEAR Survey

We report an improved measurement of the degree-scale cosmic microwave background B-mode angular-power spectrum over 670 deg 2 sky area at 150 GHz with Polarbear. In the original analysis of the data, errors in the angle measurement of the continuously rotating half-wave plate, a polarization modulator, caused significant data loss. By introducing an angle-correction algorithm, the data volume is increased by a factor of 1.8. We report a new analysis using the larger data set. We find the measured B-mode spectrum is consistent with the ΛCDM model with Galactic dust foregrounds. We estimate the contamination of the foreground by cross-correlating our data and Planck 143, 217, and 353 GHz measurements, where its spectrum is modeled as a power law in angular scale and a modified blackbody in frequency. We place an upper limit on the tensor-to-scalar ratio r < 0.33 at 95% confidence level after marginalizing over the foreground parameters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗