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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,405 records · Page 78
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

A Machine Learning Model for Predicting Composition of Catalytic Coprocessing Products from Molecular Beam Mass Spectra

Demand for the development of an automated and integrated refining process for biofuels has increased in recent years due to the lack of generalized process inspection tools. In bio-oil upgrading processes, all process variables are maintained based on the offline specification of intermediates and products. A lack of real-time product specifications in batch-wise monitoring can cause process failure and wasted resources. Therefore, there is a need for a fast and accurate intermediates/product specification tool that can be used for real-time specification to reduce waste and mitigate the risk of process failure. Here, to address this gap, we developed a machine learning (ML) model for predicting speciated bio-oil composition, including paraffin, iso-paraffins, olefins, naphthene, and aromatics. The model is trained using the mass spectra from upgraded products collected in the vapor phase before condensation and predicts the composition of the condensed product. Training ML models using raw mass spectra is challenging due to numerous overlapped peaks originating from different parent compounds. With this in mind, we propose a protocol that (i) transforms raw mass spectra to chemistry-inspired predefined features and (ii) trains decision tree-based models using these features. Our results show that the random forest model was robust against overfitting and had the highest accuracy compared to other models. Moreover, a stochastic ablation method determined the eight most significant features while maximizing the accuracy. Our protocol facilitates real-time compositional analysis of upgraded bio-oils and thus real-time process monitoring. Additionally, this protocol enables the rational design of efficient catalysts and the determination of optimal process conditions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modelling of a Flow-Induced Oscillation, Two-Cylinder, Hydrokinetic Energy Converter Based on Experimental Data

The VIVACE Converter consists of cylindrical oscillators in tandem subjected to transverse flow-induced oscillations (FIOs) that can be improved by varying the system parameters for a given in-flow velocity: damping, stiffness, and in-flow center-to-center spacing. Compared to a single isolated cylinder, tandem cylinders can harness more hydrokinetic energy due to synergy in FIO. Experimental and numerical methods have been utilized to analyze the FIO and energy harnessing of VIVACE. A surrogate-based model of two tandem cylinders is developed to predict the power harvesting and corresponding efficiency by introducing a backpropagation neural network. It is then utilized to reduce excessive experimental or computational testing. The effects of spacing, damping, and stiffness on harvested power and efficiency of the established prediction-model are analyzed. At each selected flow velocity, optimization results of power harvesting using the prediction-model are calculated under different combinations of damping and stiffness. The main conclusions are: (1) The surrogate model, built on extensive experimental data for tandem cylinders, can predict the cylinder oscillatory response accurately. (2) Increasing the damping ratio range from 0–0.24 to 0–0.30 is beneficial for improving power efficiency, but has no significant effect on power harvesting. (3) In galloping, a spacing ratio of 1.57 has the highest optimal harnessed power and efficiency compared with other spacing values. (4) Two tandem cylinders can harness 2.01–4.67 times the optimal power of an isolated cylinder. In addition, the former can achieve 1.46–4.01 times the efficiency of the latter. (5) The surrogate model is an efficient predictive tool defining parameters of the Converter for improved energy acquisition.

backpropagation neural network↗
NASA NTRS1992

Dynamic rain fade compensation techniques for the advanced communications technology satellite

The dynamic and composite nature of propagation impairments that are incurred on earth-space communications links at frequencies in and above the 30/20 GHz Ka band necessitate the use of dynamic statistical identification and prediction processing of the fading signal in order to optimally estimate and predict the levels of each of the deleterious attenuation components. Such requirements are being met in NASA's Advanced Communications Technology Satellite (ACTS) project by the implementation of optimal processing schemes derived through the use of the ACTS Rain Attenuation Prediction Model and nonlinear Markov filtering theory. The ACTS Rain Attenuation Prediction Model discerns climatological variations on the order of 0.5 deg in latitude and longitude in the continental U.S. The time-dependent portion of the model gives precise availability predictions for the 'spot beam' links of ACTS. However, the structure of the dynamic portion of the model, which yields performance parameters such as fade duration probabilities, is isomorphic to the state-variable approach of stochastic control theory and is amenable to the design of such statistical fade processing schemes which can be made specific to the particular climatological location at which they are employed.

Manning, Robert M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Coupled Hydrological-Thermal-Biogeochemical Modeling for Predicting Arctic Carbon Emissions (CH4PACE)

The Arctic, with nearly 1,700 billion metric tons of carbon stored in its soils, is experiencing significant warming trends that raise concerns about the potential release of greenhouse gases, particularly methane. This report investigates the conversion of carbon stored in Arctic soils and permafrost into methane and its subsequent atmospheric release over the coming decades. Recent data indicate a rise in global methane concentrations, highlighting the importance of understanding the mechanisms of methane generation under anaerobic conditions prevalent in thawing permafrost. Our study employs a multi-faceted approach that integrates fieldwork, benchtop experiments, and numerical simulations to explore the subsurface hydrological-thermal-biogeochemical systems influencing methane emissions. We focus on the relationship between microbial activity in decomposing organic matter under oxygen-limited conditions and the transport of methane out of these saturated wetland soils. Key hydrological parameters, including permeability, porosity, and thermal conductivity, were measured on soil samples from Fairbanks, Alaska, and used to parameterize PFLOTRAN, a coupled hydrological-thermal-reactive transport simulator. Our model enables prediction of the evolution of the active layer and its impact on methane production and release. Our findings underscore the critical need for a mechanistic understanding of methane dynamics in permafrost environments to improve predictions of methane emissions in Earth systems models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Imitating the “breeder's eye”: Predicting grain yield from measurements of non‐yield traits

Abstract Plant breeding relies on information gathered from field trials to select promising new crop varieties for release to farmers and to develop genomic prediction models that can enhance the efficiency of genetic improvement in future breeding cycles. However, generating the genetic marker data required to apply genomic prediction at the early stages of a breeding program remains costly for many public‐sector breeding programs as well as for many plant breeders operating in developing countries. As the pace of climate change intensifies, the time lag of developing and deploying new crop varieties requires plant breeders to make selection decisions without knowing the future environments those crop varieties will encounter in farmers’ fields. Therefore, both lower cost and higher accuracy methods for prediction of crop performance are essential for creating and maintaining resilient agricultural systems in the latter half of the 21 st century. To address this challenge, we conducted linked yield trials of 752 public maize ( Zea mays ) genotypes in two distinct environments. We developed and trained a phenotypic prediction model to predict yield from manually scored plant traits. The phenotypic prediction approach we employed outperformed genomic prediction in predicting yields in a second environment, with 8.7%–63% higher R 2 and 4%–13% less root mean square error than the genomic prediction. The phenotypic prediction has the potential to be applied to a wider range of breeding programs, including those that lack the resources to genotype large populations, such as programs in the developing world, breeding programs for specialty crops, and public sector programs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

The Ozone–Climate Penalty Over South America and Africa By 2100

Climate change has the potential to increase surface ozone (O3) concentrations, known as the “ozone–climate penalty”, through changes to atmospheric chemistry, transport and dry deposition. In the tropics, the response of surface O3 to changing climate is relatively understudied but has important consequences for air pollution and human and ecosystem health. In this study, we evaluate the change in surface O3 due to climate change over South America and Africa using three state-of-the-art Earth system models that follow the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3-7.0 emission scenario from CMIP6. In order to quantify changes due to climate change alone, we evaluate the difference between simulations including climate change and simulations with a fixed present-day climate. We find that by 2100, models predict an ozone–climate penalty in areas where O3 is already predicted to be high due to the impacts of precursor emissions, namely urban and biomass burning areas, although on average, models predict a decrease in surface O3 due to climate change. We identify a small but robust positive trend in annual mean surface O3 over polluted areas. Additionally, during biomass burning seasons, seasonal mean O3 concentrations increase by 15 ppb (model range 12 to 18 ppb) in areas with substantial biomass burning such as the arc of deforestation in the Amazon. The ozone–climate penalty in polluted areas is shown to be driven by an increased rate of O3 chemical production, which is strongly influenced by NOx concentrations and is therefore specific to the emission pathway chosen. Multiple linear regression finds the change in NOx concentration to be a strong predictor of the change in O3 production, whereas increased isoprene emission rate is positively correlated with increased O3 destruction, suggesting NOx-limited conditions over the majority of tropical Africa and South America. However, models disagree on the role of climate change in remote, low-NOx regions, partly because of significant differences in NOx concentrations produced by each model. We also find that the magnitude and location of the ozone–climate penalty in the Congo Basin has greater inter-model variation than that in the Amazon, so further model development and validation are needed to constrain the response in central Africa. We conclude that if the climate were to change according to the emission scenario used here, models predict that forested areas in biomass burning locations and urban populations will be at increasing risk of high O3 exposure, irrespective of any direct impacts on O3 via the prescribed emission scenario.

Surface ozone↗
DOE OSTI2024

Genomic prediction of regional-scale performance in switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) by accounting for genotype-by-environment variation and yield surrogate traits

Switchgrass is a potential crop for bioenergy or carbon capture schemes, but further yield improvements through selective breeding are needed to encourage commercialization. To identify promising switchgrass germplasm for future breeding efforts, we conducted multisite and multitrait genomic prediction with a diversity panel of 630 genotypes from 4 switchgrass subpopulations (Gulf, Midwest, Coastal, and Texas), which were measured for spaced plant biomass yield across 10 sites. Our study focused on the use of genomic prediction to share information among traits and environments. Specifically, we evaluated the predictive ability of cross-validation (CV) schemes using only genetic data and the training set (cross-validation 1: CV1), a subset of the sites (cross-validation 2: CV2), and/or with 2 yield surrogates (flowering time and fall plant height). We found that genotype-by-environment interactions were largely due to the north–south distribution of sites. The genetic correlations between the yield surrogates and the biomass yield were generally positive (mean height r = 0.85; mean flowering time r = 0.45) and did not vary due to subpopulation or growing region (North, Middle, or South). Genomic prediction models had CV predictive abilities of –0.02 for individuals using only genetic data (CV1), but 0.55, 0.69, 0.76, 0.81, and 0.84 for individuals with biomass performance data from 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 sites included in the training data (CV2), respectively. To simulate a resource-limited breeding program, we determined the predictive ability of models provided with the following: 1 site observation of flowering time (0.39); 1 site observation of flowering time and fall height (0.51); 1 site observation of fall height (0.52); 1 site observation of biomass (0.55); and 5 site observations of biomass yield (0.84). The ability to share information at a regional scale is very encouraging, but further research is required to accurately translate spaced plant biomass to commercial-scale sward biomass performance.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Assessment of Enthalpy-Based Conditional Moment Closure Models in Predicting Ignition of Lean and Stoichiometric PRF-Air Mixtures with Temperature Inhomogeneity

Accurate prediction of the ignition delay in turbulent flows is important in developing advanced combustion technology for internal combustion engines. Enthalpy-based conditional moment closure (CMC) models are assessed with 2-D direct numerical simulation (DNS) data for ignition of homogeneous PRF-air mixtures with temperature inhomogeneity in homogeneous isotropic turbulence. The sensible-enthalpy-based CMC model is compared with the total-enthalpy-based formulation, with the focus being placed on assessing the capability of the CMC models in predicting ignition processes under different engine conditions. A priori analysis shows that the total-enthalpy-based CMC gives good predictions of the heat release rates in the lean mixtures when the temperature inhomogeneity level is low, but leads to significant overprediction under the stoichiometric condition regardless of the thermal stratification levels. On the other hand, the sensible enthalpy formulation performs well for all conditions considered in this study due to the suppressed conditional temperature fluctuations. A mapping method to model conditional scalar dissipation rates and probability density function of sensible enthalpy is also assessed.

Wang, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2024

Residual Stress in Cold Spray SS304L Measured Via Neutron Diffraction and Comparison of Analytical Models to Predict the Residual Stress

Here, this study employs neutron diffraction to investigate the relationship between residual stress and coating thickness in cold sprayed 304L austenitic stainless steel. Results show that shot peening predominantly impacts the residual stress profile, leading to substantial in-plane compressive force. The impact of laser heating, a widely used method to alter cold spray's microstructural properties, on the coating's residual stress is also analyzed. The findings indicate that the maximum compressive residual stress in the in-plane component is mainly independent of coating thickness, which suggests that the material properties determine the maximum residual stress. The cold sprayed deposits possessed compressive, nearly biaxial strain and stresses. After laser heating, these stresses were replaced by tensile residual stresses. Two analytical models, the Tsui and Clyne and the Boruah models, for predicting residual stresses are also evaluated, and both models provide reasonable fits to the experimental data. At this point, the deviations between the experimental results and the models are principally caused by the inability of the current models to address plastic deformation and relaxation, and the residual stresses generated by thermal gradients.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

New and comprehensive β - and βp-decay spectroscopy results in the vicinity of Sn100

A decay spectroscopy experiment on proton-rich nuclei in the vicinity of the doubly magic Sn100 was carried out at RIKEN Nishina Center. More than 20 nuclei with 43≤Z≤50 and N≤51, produced by fragmentation reactions were investigated via analyses of β-decay, βp-decay, and subsequent γ-ray data. Owing to higher statistics, the precision on the half-lives of many of the ground states and isomers was improved. β-decay endpoint energies of 11 states in 8 nuclei were measured for the first time, and the corresponding QEC and excitation energies were generally consistent with various mass models. Many β-delayed proton emission branching ratios were measured either for the first time or with higher precision compared to literature values, and some of them differed by more than 2σ. Many of the large discrepancies were associated with nuclei with long-lived isomeric states, highlighting large systematic uncertainties involved in these measurements. Twenty-five new γ rays were observed, and ten new states are proposed with unambiguous excitation energies, spins, and parities. Most of the energies of the excited states were consistent within 300 keV or 20%, whichever was greater, compared to shell model predictions in the proton/neutron (p1/2,g9/2) model space assuming a Sr76 core. A signature of a new (1/2-) isomer in Cd97 with T1/2=0.73(7) s was found, in good agreement with shell model predictions. © 2019 American Physical Society.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

An ecological niche model to predict the geographic distribution of Haemagogus janthinomys, Dyar, 1921 a yellow fever and Mayaro virus vector, in South America

Yellow fever virus (YFV) has a long history of impacting human health in South America. Mayaro virus (MAYV) is an emerging arbovirus of public health concern in the Neotropics and its full impact is yet unknown. Both YFV and MAYV are primarily maintained via a sylvatic transmission cycle but can be opportunistically transmitted to humans by the bites of infected forest dwelling Haemagogus janthinomys Dyar, 1921. To better understand the potential risk of YFV and MAYV transmission to humans, a more detailed understanding of this vector species’ distribution is critical. This study compiled a comprehensive database of 177 unique Hg . janthinomys collection sites retrieved from the published literature, digitized museum specimens and publicly accessible mosquito surveillance data. Covariate analysis was performed to optimize a selection of environmental (topographic and bioclimatic) variables associated with predicting habitat suitability, and species distributions modelled across South America using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach. Our results indicate that suitable habitat for Hg . janthinomys can be found across forested regions of South America including the Atlantic forests and interior Amazon.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Phenomenological Model for Prediction of Cation Substitution Distribution and Some Physical Properties in Mn{sup 3+}-Doped Barium Hexaferrite

The magnetic properties of M-type barium ferrite are strongly related to the distribution of Fe{sup 3+} cation within the crystal structure. In this work, we propose a simple phenomenological model to predict the Fe{sup 3+} cation distribution for BaFe{sub 12−x}Mn{sub x}O{sub 19} compounds. From the proposed model, it was possible to estimate physical properties such as the theoretical density, the saturation magnetization, and the anisotropic constant. The obtained results were compared with experimental ones extracted from previous reported papers.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermodynamics-guided machine learning model for predicting convective boundary layer height and its multi-site applicability

Accurate estimation of convective boundary layer height (CBLH) is vital for weather, climate, and air quality modeling. Machine learning (ML) shows promise in CBLH prediction, but input parameter selection often lacks physical grounding, limiting generalizability. This study introduces a novel ML framework for CBLH prediction, integrating thermodynamic constraints and the diurnal CBLH cycle as an implicit physical guide. Boundary layer growth is modeled as driven by surface heat fluxes and atmospheric heat absorption represented with the low tropospheric stability, using the diurnal cycle as input and output. TPOT and AutoKeras are employed to select optimal models, validated against Doppler lidar-derived CBLH data, achieving an R 2 of 0.84 across untrained years. Comparisons of eddy covariance (ECOR) and energy balance Bowen ratio (EBBR) flux measurements show the same prediction capability. Models trained on the ARM SGP C1 site with ECOR data and tested at E37 and E39 yield R 2 values of 0.79 and 0.81, respectively, demonstrating their adaptability. The ML model trained with all sites' data slightly enhances the performance compared with ML models trained over single-site data. The interquartile range for predicted CBLH is consistently narrower than that for DL-derived CBLH, reflecting lower variability in predicted CBLH compared to DL-derived CBLH, which is influenced by additional factors, which are not well represented with the model inputs. The model's generalizability across multiple sites at the ARM SGP site demonstrates its potential for transfer to greater distances, offering a scalable approach for enhancing boundary layer parameterization in atmospheric models.

Chu, Yufei [Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States)]↗
NASA NTRS2022

Space Weather Modeling and Prediction for Intermediate Time-scales

Much of solar activity within a sunspot cycle occurs as bursts, or 'seasons' of strong activity over several months, separated by periods of much less activity. The most important space weather effects occur during these bursts. Previous modeling and forecasting efforts have focused on time-scales of hours-to-days and decades-to-centuries. The recent discovery of Rossby waves in the Sun, together with recently developed global models of solar MHD Rossby waves and their interactions with differential rotation and spot-producing magnetic fields, reveal the opportunity to simulate and predict the occurrence, strength and location of enhanced activity bursts a few weeks up to several months in advance. We now have a golden opportunity to fill in this gap in time-scales of forecasting space weather. This requires a) continuous observations of solar Rossby waves by various techniques; b) development of coupled nonlinear MHD models that simulate both global Rossby waves and the much smaller spatial scale emergence of new active regions; c) application of advanced data assimilation techniques to couple surface observations to update the model-system to integrate forward in time for creating forecasts months ahead. Then it will be possible to build operational prediction models to meet the needs of customers and stakeholders, including support of future NASA missions, regarding what kind and level of space weather to expect a few weeks to several months ahead.

SMD↗
DOE OSTI2017

Pairwise interaction extended point-particle model for a random array of monodisperse spheres

This study introduces a new point-particle force model that attempts to account for the hydrodynamic influence of the neighbouring particles in an Eulerian–Lagrangian simulation. In previous point-particle models the force on a particle depends only on Reynolds number and mean volume fraction. Thus, as long as the mean local volume fraction is the same, the force on different particles will be estimated to be the same, even though the precise arrangement of neighbours can be vastly different. From direct numerical simulation (DNS) it has been observed that in a random arrangement of spheres that were distributed with uniform probability, the particle-to-particle variation in force can be as large as the mean drag. Since the Reynolds number and mean volume fraction of all the particles within the array are the same, the standard models fail to account for the significant particle-to-particle force variation within the random array. Here, we develop a model which can compute the drag and lateral forces on each particle by accounting for the precise location of a few surrounding neighbours. A pairwise interaction is assumed where the perturbation flow induced by each neighbour is considered separately, then the effects of all neighbours are linearly superposed to obtain the total perturbation. Faxén correction is used to quantify the force perturbation due to the presence of the neighbours. The single neighbour perturbations are mapped in the vicinity of a reference sphere and stored as libraries. We test the pairwise interaction extended point-particle (PIEP) model for random arrays at two different volume fractions of $\unicode[STIX]{x1D719}=0.1$ and 0.21 and Reynolds numbers in the range $16.5\leqslant Re\leqslant 170$ . The PIEP model predictions are compared against drag and lift forces obtained from the fully resolved DNS simulations performed using the immersed boundary method. Although not perfect, we observe the PIEP model prediction to correlate much better with the DNS results than the classical mean drag model prediction.

Mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Movement Models to Predict Low‐Altitude Flight of Soaring Birds Using Look‐Ahead Environmental Factors

Advances in fine-scale movement modeling of soaring birds can aid efforts to understand and resolve the impacts of anthropogenic activities on such birds. Soaring birds often rely on underlying terrain and low-altitude updrafts to govern their flights at rotor-swept altitudes (≤ 200 m above ground level), which puts them at risk of collision with wind turbines. We developed a data-driven Markov model at 1-s resolution that predicts the fine-scale flight behavior of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) as a function of ecological covariates at the current location as well as those within an eagle's line of sight. We only considered ecological covariates that are readily available in real-time (ground elevation and wind conditions). Latent factors (age, sex, species, behavioral intent, migratory status) were intentionally left out of the model. We calibrated the model using golden eagle telemetry data collected in two different ecoregions of the United States. Given a starting location, the calibrated model simulates multiple stochastic 3D paths to produce a time-explicit and spatially explicit risk map of turbine collisions. We discovered an empirical relation between the rate of change of heading and the orographic updraft conditions within an eagle's line of sight. Our model performed most effectively when predicting predominantly-soaring flights at rotor-swept altitudes during wind conditions in which turbines are likely to be operational. The calibrated model could be used in concert with automated eagle detection and turbine curtailment technologies. Specifically, once an eagle is detected by those systems, our model could then provide accurate predictions of turbines the eagle is likely to interact with in the near term.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2009

Control of Systems With Slow Actuators Using Time Scale Separation

This paper addresses the problem of controlling a nonlinear plant with a slow actuator using singular perturbation method. For the known plant-actuator cascaded system the proposed scheme achieves tracking of a given reference model with considerably less control demand than would otherwise result when using conventional design techniques. This is the consequence of excluding the small parameter from the actuator dynamics via time scale separation. The resulting tracking error is within the order of this small parameter. For the unknown system the adaptive counterpart is developed based on the prediction model, which is driven towards the reference model by the control design. It is proven that the prediction model tracks the reference model with an error proportional to the small parameter, while the prediction error converges to zero. The resulting closed-loop system with all prediction models and adaptive laws remains stable. The benefits of the approach are demonstrated in simulation studies and compared to conventional control approaches.

Stepanyan, Vehram↗