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NASA NTRS2002

Evaluation of Methods to Estimate the Surface Downwelling Longwave Flux during Arctic Winter

Surface longwave radiation fluxes dominate the energy budget of nighttime polar regions, yet little is known about the relative accuracy of existing satellite-based techniques to estimate this parameter. We compare eight methods to estimate the downwelling longwave radiation flux and to validate their performance with measurements from two field programs in thc Arctic: the Coordinated Eastern Arctic Experiment (CEAREX ) conducted in the Barents Sea during the autumn and winter of 1988, and the Lead Experiment performed in the Beaufort Sea in the spring of 1992. Five of the eight methods were developed for satellite-derived quantities, and three are simple parameterizations based on surface observations. All of the algorithms require information about cloud fraction, which is provided from the NASA-NOAA Television and Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) polar pathfinder dataset (Path-P): some techniques ingest temperature and moisture profiles (also from Path-P): one-half of the methods assume that clouds are opaque and have a constant geometric thickness of 50 hPa, and three include no thickness information whatsoever. With a somewhat limited validation dataset, the following primary conclusions result: (1) all methods exhibit approximately the same correlations with measurements and rms differences, but the biases range from -34 W sq m (16% of the mean) to nearly 0; (2) the error analysis described here indicates that the assumption of a 50-hPa cloud thickness is too thin by a factor of 2 on average in polar nighttime conditions; (3) cloud-overlap techniques. which effectively increase mean cloud thickness, significantly improve the results; (4) simple Arctic-specific parameterizations performed poorly, probably because they were developed with surface-observed cloud fractions; and (5) the single algorithm that includes an estimate of cloud thickness exhibits the smallest differences from observations.

Chiacchio, Marc↗

NASA NTRS2001

A New Ensemble Canonical Correlation Prediction Scheme for Seasonal Precipitation

Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada This paper describes the fundamental theory of the ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) algorithm for the seasonal climate forecasting. The algorithm is a statistical regression sch eme based on maximal correlation between the predictor and predictand. The prediction error is estimated by a spectral method using the basis of empirical orthogonal functions. The ECC algorithm treats the predictors and predictands as continuous fields and is an improvement from the traditional canonical correlation prediction. The improvements include the use of area-factor, estimation of prediction error, and the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The ECC is applied to the seasonal forecasting over various parts of the world. The example presented here is for the North America precipitation. The predictor is the sea surface temperature (SST) from different ocean basins. The Climate Prediction Center's reconstructed SST (1951-1999) is used as the predictor's historical data. The optimally interpolated global monthly precipitation is used as the predictand?s historical data. Our forecast experiments show that the ECC algorithm renders very high skill and the optimal ensemble is very important to the high value.

Kim, Kyu-Myong↗

DOE OSTI2022

Topology optimization of an airfoil fin microchannel heat exchanger using artificial intelligence

High-performance microchannel heat exchangers are needed to supply heat for power conversion for nuclear microreactors. An airfoil fin microchannel design, constructed of Alloy 617 with helium as the working fluid, is analyzed and optimized using a design of experiments with artificial intelligence techniques. The use of airfoil fins offers the potential to reduce pressure drop across the heat exchanger, as compared to other types of channel configurations. A framework for topology optimization of airfoil fin printed circuit heat exchangers (PCHEs) has been developed that can be readily extended to different fin sizes and shapes, as well as different inlet and operating conditions, materials of construction, and working fluids. An optimization procedure is developed that employs computational fluid dynamics for a set of design points identified using Latin hypercube sampling. Computational fluid dynamics is used to analyze a simplified two-channel configuration where five design parameters are varied – inlet angle, fin scale, extent of staggering, transverse and longitudinal pitches. Two methods (a 5D polynomial and a regression neural network) are compared for generating surrogate models and the resulting response surface approximation is input to a genetic algorithm that is used to identify a set of optimal parameters. The optimal geometries are found across six channel Reynolds numbers ranging from 1000 to 5000, since inlet conditions affect flow through the heat exchanger. Additionally, a set of optimal designs that maximizes heat transfer and minimizes pressure drop is identified, and a thermal stress analysis is performed on the optimal design. Correlations for the Nusselt number and Darcy friction factor are developed that can be useful for thermal hydraulic analyses using system codes. Thermal stresses are analyzed and a brief discussion of the status of code cases of PCHEs for nuclear applications is given. Testing and thermomechanical modeling is needed to facilitate future code compliance of PCHEs for high pressure and high temperature applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning Augmented Predictive and Generative Model for Rupture Life in Ferritic and Austenitic Steels

The Larson-Miller parameter (LMP) offers an efficient and fast scheme to estimate the creep rupture life of alloy materials for high temperature applications. However, owing to poor generalizability and dependence on the constant C, which is typically not known a-priori, estimations using the Larson-Miller parameter often result in suboptimal performance for a wide range of materials. At best it is useful in comparing alloys of similar composition. In this work, three machine learning (ML) schemes were developed for rupture life prediction for 9-12% Cr ferritic-martensitic steels and austenitic stainless steels, i.e., a hierarchical model to parameterize LMP using the LMP constant C to compute rupture life, a hierarchical model to parameterize both C and LMP to compute rupture life, and a direct prediction of rupture life. Specifically, we show that the third scheme, using a gradient boosting algorithm, can be used to train ML models for very accurate prediction of rupture life in a variety of alloys (Pear-son Correlation Coefficient > 0.9 for 9-12% Cr and > 0.8 for austenitic stainless steels). In addition, the Shapley value was used to quantify feature importance, making the model interpretable by identifying the effect of various features on the model performance. Furthermore, a variational autoencoder-based generative model was built by conditioning on the experimental dataset to sample hypothetical synthetic candidate alloys from the learnt joint distribution not existing in both 9-12 % Cr ferritic-martensitic steel and austenitic stainless steel datasets. Finally, based on the predictive and generative model, a reinforcement learning strategy has been proposed to guide experimentalists into designing better heat resistant alloys.

Mamun, Md Osman G.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Gap-filling eddy covariance methane fluxes: Comparison of machine learning model predictions and uncertainties at FLUXNET-CH4 wetlands

Time series of methane fluxes measured by eddy-covariance require gap-filling to estimate annual emissions. Gap-filling methane fluxes is challenging because of high variability and complex responses to multiple drivers. To date, there is no widely established gap-filling standard for methane, with regards both to the best model algorithms and predictors. In this study, we address the need for standardization by synthesizing results of gap-filling methods applied at 17 wetland sites spanning boreal to tropical regions including all major wetlands classes and two rice paddies. We introduce new procedures for: 1) creating realistic artificial gap scenarios, 2) training and evaluating gap-filling models without overstating performance, and 3) predicting half-hourly methane fluxes and annual emissions with robust uncertainty estimates. We tested a conventional method (marginal distribution sampling) and four machine learning algorithms - penalized linear regression, artificial neural networks, random forests, and boosted decision trees - and four predictor sets, including temporal, meteorological, ecosystem carbon and energy flux, and soil predictors. We find that the conventional method can achieve similar median performance to the machine learning models but is worse than the best machine learning models and relatively insensitive to predictor choices. Of the machine learning models, decision tree algorithms performed the best in cross-validation experiments, even with a baseline predictor set, and artificial neural networks showed comparable performance when using all predictors. Soil temperature was frequently the most important predictor whilst water table depth was important at sites with substantial water table fluctuations, highlighting the value of data on soil conditions. Raw gap-filling uncertainties from the machine learning models were underestimated and we propose a method to calibrate uncertainties to observations. Finally, we gap-fill and provide summary evaluation metrics for all 81 sites in the FLUXNET-CH4 community dataset and publicly release the python code for model development, evaluation, and uncertainty estimation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Reconsidering spin-phonon relaxation in magnetic molecules

Because of the larger intra-molecular distortion, optical phonons usually have stronger spin-phonon coupling than acoustic phonons in molecular magnets. This property may pose problems to the theory of spin relaxation in ordinary paramagnetic materials, which have served as the basis for the understanding of spin dynamics in molecular magnets for decades. In this review, we explain why the Raman processes driven by optical phonons can play a dominant role at low temperature and provide unconventional dependence between relaxation time and temperature. Especially, we emphasize that the sub-barrier relaxation and anomalously low Raman exponents are two common signatures of the dominance. Here, we also present the algorithm and implementation for calculating spin-phonon relaxation in molecular solids with density functional theory codes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2018

A non-destructive method for crack quantification in photovoltaic backsheets under accelerated and real-world exposures

The long-term durability of photovoltaic modules is paramount for the continued growth of the industry. Polymer backsheets are of particular concern since they provide electrical insulation and an environmental barrier. In this paper, 23 freestanding, multilayer backsheets with nine unique material combinations underwent four different weathering exposures under accelerated and real-world conditions. Besides changes in color and gloss, the induced degradation included parallel or mudflat cracks on 11 backsheets, sometimes in combination with delamination or blistering. Similar degradation has been observed in previous studies and is concerning since cracks compromise the mechanical integrity and electrical safety of backsheets. Quantitative parameters are desirable to reliably classify categories of cracks and supply unbiased features for statistical analysis in predictive lifetime models. We developed an analysis technique that utilizes surface profilometry data to quantify the depth, width, area, spacing, and number of cracks. Parameters are automatically extracted from the raw data by an algorithm running on a high performance distributed computing cluster. Our algorithm excelled at characterizing parallel cracks with minimal de-adhesion, and only an estimated 4% of crack detections were false positives. The addition of humidity and temperature variation formed up to three times as many cracks on a photodose basis compared to dry, constant temperature exposures. Cracks in real-world and accelerated exposures propagated to similar depths with equivalent photodoses; however, the number of cracks formed in accelerated exposures was far greater on a photodose basis. Of samples that cracked, the best performing backsheet configuration was polyvinyl fluoride/poly (ethylene-terephthalate)/polyethylene (PVF/PET/PE) while the least durable was PET/PET/ethylene-vinyl acetate. Finally, none of the six PVF/PET/PVF backsheets cracked in any of the exposures.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1983

Three-dimensional flow over a conical afterbody containing a centered propulsive jet - A numerical simulation

The supersonic flow field over a body of revolution incident to the free stream is simulated numerically on a large, array processor (the CDC Cyber 205). The configuration is composed of a cone-cylinder forebody followed by a conical afterbody from which emanates a centered, supersonic propulsive jet. The free-stream Mach number is 2, the jet-exit Mach number is 2.5, and the jet-to-free-stream static pressure ratio is 3. Both the external flow and the exhaust are ideal air at a common total temperature. The thin-layer approximation to the time-dependent, compressible, Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations are solved using an implicit finite-difference algorithm. The data base, of 5 million words, is structured in a 'pencil' format so that efficient use of the array processor can be realized. The computer code is completely vectorized to take advantage of the data structure. Turbulence closure is achieved using an empirical algebraic eddy-viscosity model. The configuration and flow conditions correspond to published experimental tests and the computed solutions are consistent with the experimental data.

Deiwert, G. S.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Cloud cover determination in polar regions from satellite imagery

The objectives are to develop a suitable validation data set for evaluating the effectiveness of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) algorithm for cloud retrieval in polar regions, to identify limitations of current procedures and to explore potential means to remedy them using textural classifiers, and to compare synoptic cloud data from model runs with observations. Toward the first goal, a polar data set consisting of visible, thermal, and passive microwave data was developed. The AVHRR and SMMR data were digitally merged to a polar stereographic projection with an effective pixel size of 5 sq km. With this data set, two unconventional methods of classifying the imagery for the analysis of polar clouds and surfaces were examined: one based on fuzzy sets theory and another based on a trained neural network. An algorithm for cloud detection was developed from an early test version of the ISCCP algorithm. This algorithm includes the identification of surface types with passive microwave, then temporal tests at each pixel location in the cloud detection phase. Cloud maps and clear sky radiance composites for 5 day periods are produced. Algorithm testing and validation was done with both actural AVHRR/SMMR data, and simulated imagery. From this point in the algorithm, groups of cloud pixels are examined for their spectral and textural characteristics, and a procedure is developed for the analysis of cloud patterns utilizing albedo, IR temperature, and texture. In a completion of earlier work, empirical analyses of arctic cloud cover were explored through manual interpretations of DMSP imagery and compared to U.S. Air Force 3D-nephanalysis. Comparisons of observed cloudiness from existing climatologies to patterns computed by the GISS climate model were also made.

Barry, R. G.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Structural design methodologies for ceramic-based material systems

One of the primary pacing items for realizing the full potential of ceramic-based structural components is the development of new design methods and protocols. The focus here is on low temperature, fast-fracture analysis of monolithic, whisker-toughened, laminated, and woven ceramic composites. A number of design models and criteria are highlighted. Public domain computer algorithms, which aid engineers in predicting the fast-fracture reliability of structural components, are mentioned. Emphasis is not placed on evaluating the models, but instead is focused on the issues relevant to the current state of the art.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗

NASA NTRS1991

An assessment of VAS-derived retrievals and parameters used in thunderstorm forecasting

VAS satellite retrievals and derived parameters used in forecasting severe local storms were evaluated against corresponding radiosonde values. VAS products were also compared with the first-guess input to the retrieval algorithm. The evaluation methodology was to pair each radiosonde observation with the closest VAS retrieval within 50 km during a four-month period in 1986. VAS temperatures agreed closely with radiosonde values; dewpoints showed less agreement. Sounding differences were poorly correlated with the number of pixels from which the retrievals were prepared. VAS discrepancies usually were not well correlated with first-guess errors. Horizontal gradients of VAS products were stronger than those from radiosondes. VAS precipitable water agreed better with ground truth than did dewpoints at individual levels, but VAS thicknesses were not much improved. Results for severe storms forecasting parameters indicated that discrepancies increased with the amount of manipulation required during computation. The lifted index showed the best agreement; positive bouyant energy showed poor comparisons.

Fuelberg, Henry E.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Preliminary flight evaluation of an engine performance optimization algorithm

A performance-seeking control (PSC) algorithm has undergone initial flight test evaluation in subsonic operation of a PW 1128-engined F-15; this algorithm is designed to optimize the quasi-steady performance of an engine for three primary modes: (1) minimum fuel consumption, (2) minimum fan-turbine inlet temperature (FTIT), and (3) maximum thrust. The flight test results have verified a thrust-specific fuel consumption reduction of 1 percent, up to 100 R decreases in FTIT, and increases of as much as 12 percent in maximum thrust. PSC technology promises to be of value in next-generation tactical and transport aircraft.

Lambert, H. H.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Structural design methodologies for ceramic-based material systems

Duffy, Stephen F.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Lidar measurements and Umkehr observations of the ozone vertical distribution at the Observatoire de Haute Provence

This paper compares results of lidar and Umkehr measurements, made during 1985-1991, which include 110 coincidences. The Umkehr ozone profiles were retrieved using the conventional Umkehr method (Gotz et al., 1934; Mateer and Dutsch, 1964), the short Umkehr method (De Luisi, 1979), and the recently developed new-conventional Umkehr method (Mateer and De Luisi, 1992) in which the conventional method is referred to as the '1964 algorithm' and the new-conventional method as the '1991 algorithm'. Results obtained show good agreement between the ozone profiles derived using the new-conventional Umkehr method and lidar ozone profiles, emphasizing the influence of the temperature dependence of the ozone cross-sections on the Umkehr ozone retrievals.

Lacoste, A.-M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Sonic boom interaction with turbulence

A recently developed transonic small-disturbance model is used to analyze the interactions of random disturbances with a weak shock. The model equation has an extended form of the classic small-disturbance equation for unsteady transonic aerodynamics. It shows that diffraction effects, nonlinear steepening effects, focusing and caustic effects and random induced vorticity fluctuations interact simultaneously to determine the development of the shock wave in space and time and the pressure field behind it. A finite-difference algorithm to solve the mixed-type elliptic hyperbolic flows around the shock wave is presented. Numerical calculations of shock wave interactions with various deterministic vorticity and temperature disturbances result in complicate shock wave structures and describe peaked as well as rounded pressure signatures behind the shock front, as were recorded in experiments of sonic booms running through atmospheric turbulence.

Zvi Rusak↗

NASA NTRS1999

Work on Planetary Atmospheres and Planetary Atmosphere Probes

A summary final report of work accomplished is presented. Work was performed in the following areas: (1) Galileo Probe science analysis, (2) Galileo probe Atmosphere Structure Instrument, (3) Mars Pathfinder Atmosphere Structure/Meteorology instrument, (4) Mars Pathfinder data analysis, (5) Science Definition for future Mars missions, (6) Viking Lander data analysis, (7) winds in Mars atmosphere Venus atmospheric dynamics, (8) Pioneer Venus Probe data analysis, (9) Pioneer Venus anomaly analysis, (10) Discovery Venus Probe Titan probe instrument design, and (11) laboratory studies of Titan probe impact phenomena. The work has resulted in more than 10 articles published in archive journals, 2 encyclopedia articles, and many working papers. This final report is organized around the four planets on which there was activity, Jupiter, Mars, Venus, and Titan, with a closing section on Miscellaneous Activities. A major objective was to complete the fabrication, test, and evaluation of the atmosphere structure experiment on the Galileo probe, and to receive, analyze and interpret data received from the spacecraft. The instrument was launched on April 14, 1989. Calibration data were taken for all experiment sensors. The data were analyzed, fitted with algorithms, and summarized in a calibration report for use in analyzing and interpreting data returned from Jupiter's atmosphere. The sensors included were the primary science pressure, temperature and acceleration sensors, and the supporting engineering temperature sensors. Computer programs were written to decode the Experiment Data Record and convert the digital numbers to physical quantities, i.e., temperatures, pressures, and accelerations. The project office agreed to obtain telemetry of checkout data from the probe. Work to extend programs written for use on the Pioneer Venus project included: (1) massive heat shield ablation leading to important mass loss during entry; and (2) rapid planet rotation, which introduced terms of motion not needed on Venus. When the Galileo Probe encountered Jupiter, analysis and interpretation of data commenced. The early contributions of the experiment were to define (1) the basic structure of the deep atmosphere, (2) the stability of the atmosphere, (3) the upper atmospheric profiles of density, pressure, and temperature. The next major task in the Galileo Probe project was to refine, verify and extend the analysis of the data. It was the verified, and corrected data, which indicated a dry abiabatic atmosphere within measurement accuracy. Temperature in the thermosphere was measured at 900 K. Participation in the Mars atmospheric research included: (1) work as a team member of the Mars Atmosphere Working Group, (2) contribution to the Mars Exobiology Instrument workshop, (3) asssistance in planning the Mars global network and (4) assitance in planning the Soviet-French Mars mission in 1994. This included a return to the Viking Lander parachute data to refine and improve the definition of winds between 1.5 and 4 kilometer altitude at the two entry sites. The variability of the structure of Mars atmosphere was addressed, which is known to vary with season, latitude, hemisphere and dust loading of the atmosphere. This led to work on the Pathfinder project. The probe had a deployable meteorology mast that had three temperature sensors, and a wind sensor at the tip of the mast. Work on the Titan atmospheric probe was also accomplished. This included developing an experiment proposal to the European Space Agency (ESA), which was not selected. However, as an advisor in the design and preparation of the selected experiment the researcher interacted with scientist on the Huygens Probe Atmosphere Structure Experiment. The researcher also participated in the planning for the Venus Chemical Probe. The science objectives of the probe were to resolve unanswered questions concerning the minor species chemistry of Venus' atmosphere that control cloud formation, greenhouse effectiveness, and the thermal structure. The researcher also reviewed problems with the Pioneer Venus Probe, that caused anomalies which occurred on the Probes at and below 12.5 km level of the Venus' atmosphere. He convened and participated in a workshop that concluded the most likely hardware cause was insulation failure in the electrical harness outside the Probes' pressure vessels. It was discovered that the shrink tubing material failed at 600K. This failure could explain the anomalies experienced by the probes. The descent data of the Pioneer probes, and the Soviet Vega Lander was analyzed to evaluate the presence of small scale gravity waves in and below the Venus cloud layer.

Lester, Peter↗

NASA NTRS2004

The Precision and Accuracy of AIRS Level 1B Radiances for Climate Studies

We investigate uncertainties in the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiances based on in-flight and preflight calibration algorithms and observations. The global coverage and spectra1 resolution ((lamda)/(Delta)(lamda) ~ 1200) of AIRS enable it to produce a data set that can be used as a climate data record over the lifetime of the instrument. Therefore, we examine the effects of the uncertainties in the calibration and the detector stability on future climate studies. The uncertainties of the parameters that go into the AIRS radiometric calibration are propagated to estimate the accuracy of the radiances and any climate data record created from AIRS measurements. The calculated radiance uncertainties are consistent with observations. Algorithm enhancements may be able to reduce the radiance uncertainties by as much as 7%. We find that the orbital variation of the gain contributes a brightness temperature bias of < 0.01 K.

climate↗

NASA NTRS2007

TPS In-Flight Health Monitoring Project Progress Report

Progress in the development of new thermal protection systems (TPS) is reported. New approaches use embedded lightweight, sensitive, fiber optic strain and temperature sensors within the TPS. Goals of the program are to develop and demonstrate a prototype TPS health monitoring system, develop a thermal-based damage detection algorithm, characterize limits of sensor/system performance, and develop ea methodology transferable to new designs of TPS health monitoring systems. Tasks completed during the project helped establish confidence in understanding of both test setup and the model and validated system/sensor performance in a simple TPS structure. Other progress included complete initial system testing, commencement of the algorithm development effort, generation of a damaged thermal response characteristics database, initial development of a test plan for integration testing of proven FBG sensors in simple TPS structure, and development of partnerships to apply the technology.

Kostyk, Chris↗