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HIRM v1.0: a hybrid impulse response model for climate modeling and uncertainty analyses

Simple climate models (SCMs) are frequently used in research and decision-making communities because of their flexibility, tractability, and low computational cost. SCMs can be idealized, flexibly representing major climate dynamics as impulse response functions, or process-based, using explicit equations to model possibly nonlinear climate and Earth system dynamics. Each of these approaches has strengths and limitations. Here we present and test a hybrid impulse response modeling framework (HIRM) that combines the strengths of process-based SCMs in an idealized impulse response model, with HIRM's input derived from the output of a process-based model. This structure enables the model to capture some of the major nonlinear dynamics that occur in complex climate models as greenhouse gas emissions transform to atmospheric concentration to radiative forcing to climate change. As a test, the HIRM framework was configured to emulate the total temperature of the simple climate model Hector 2.0 under the four Representative Concentration Pathways and the temperature response of an abrupt 4 times CO 2 concentration step. HIRM was able to reproduce near-term and long-term Hector global temperature with a high degree of fidelity. Additionally, we conducted two case studies to demonstrate potential applications for this hybrid model: examining the effect of aerosol forcing uncertainty on global temperature and incorporating more process-based representations of black carbon into a SCM. The open-source HIRM framework has a range of applications including complex climate model emulation, uncertainty analyses of radiative forcing, attribution studies, and climate model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The CEOP Inter-Monsoon Studies (CIMS)

Prediction of climate relies on models, and better model prediction depends on good model physics. Improving model physics requires the maximal utilization of climate data of the past, present and future. CEOP provides the first example of a comprehensive, integrated global and regional data set, consisting of globally gridded data, reference site in-situ observations, model location time series (MOLTS), and integrated satellite data for a two-year period covering two complete annual cycles of 2003-2004. The monsoon regions are the most important socio-economically in terms of devastation by floods and droughts, and potential impacts from climate change md fluctuatinns nf the hydrologic cyc!e. Scientifically, it is most challenging, because of complex interactions of atmosphere, land and oceans, local vs. remote forcings in contributing to climate variability and change in the region. Given that many common features, and physical teleconnection exist among different monsoon regions, an international research focus on monsoon must be coordinated and sustained. Current models of the monsoon are grossly inadequate for regional predictions. For improvement, models must be confronted with relevant observations, and model physic developers must be made to be aware of the wealth of information from existing climate data, field measurements, and satellite data that can be used to improve models. Model transferability studles must be conducted. CIMS is a major initiative under CEOP to engage the modeling and the observational communities to join in a coordinated effort to study the monsoons. The objectives of CIMS are (a) To provide a better understanding of fundamental physical processes (diurnal cycle, annual cycle, and intraseasonal oscillations) in monsoon regions around the world and (b) To demonstrate the synergy and utility of CEOP data in providing a pathway for model physics evaluation and improvement. In this talk, I will present the basic concepts of CIMS and the key scientific problems facing monsoon climates and provide examples of common monsoon features, and possible monsoon induced teleconnections linking different parts of the world.

Lau, William K. M.↗

Evaluation of the Sensor Data Record from the Nadir Instruments of the Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite (OMPS)

This paper evaluates the first 15 months of the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) Sensor Data Record (SDR) acquired by the nadir sensors and processed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Interface Data Processing Segment. The evaluation consists of an inter-comparison with a similar satellite instrument, an analysis using a radiative transfer model, and an assessment of product stability. This is in addition to the evaluation of sensor calibration and the Environment Data Record product that are also reported in this Special Issue. All these are parts of synergetic effort to provide comprehensive assessment at every level of the products to ensure its quality. It is found that the OMPS nadir SDR quality is satisfactory for the current Provisional maturity. Methods used in the evaluation are being further refined, developed, and expanded, in collaboration with international community through the Global Space-based Inter-Calibration System, to support the upcoming long-term monitoring.

validation↗

Four Years of Airborne Measurements of Wildfire Emissions in California, with a Focus on the Evolution of Emissions During the Soberanes Megafire

Biomass burning is an important source of trace gases and particles which can influence air quality on local, regional, and global scales. With wildfire events increasing due to changes in land use, increasing population, and climate change, characterizing wildfire emissions and their evolution is vital. In this work we report in situ airborne measurements of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), water vapor (H2O), ozone (O3), and formaldehyde (HCHO) from nine wildfire events in California between 2013 and 2016, which were sampled as part of the Alpha Jet Atmospheric eXperiment (AJAX) based at NASA Ames Research Center. One of those fires, the Soberanes Megafire, began on 22 July 2016 and burned for three months. During that time, five flights were executed to sample emissions near and downwind of the Soberanes wildfire. In situ data are used to determine enhancement ratios (ERs), or excess mixing ratio relative to CO2, as well as assess O3 production from the fire. Changes in the emissions as a function of fire evolution are explored. Air quality impacts downwind of the fire are addressed using ground-based monitoring site data, satellite smoke products, and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical grid model.

Iraci, Laura T.↗

An evolving Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7) and Fast Track in support of future climate assessment

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) coordinates community-based efforts to answer key and timely climate science questions, facilitate delivery of relevant multi-model simulations through shared infrastructure, and support national and international climate assessments. Generations of CMIP have evolved through extensive community engagement from punctuated phasing into more continuous support for the design of experimental protocols, infrastructure for data publication and access, and public delivery of climate information. We identify four fundamental research questions motivating a seventh phase of coupled model intercomparison relating to patterns of sea surface temperature change, changing weather, the water–carbon–climate nexus, and tipping points. Key CMIP7 advances include an expansion of baseline experiments, a focus on CO 2 -emissions-driven experiments, sustained support for community MIPs, periodic updating of historical forcings and diagnostics requests, and a collection of prioritized experiments, or the “Assessment Fast Track”, drawn from community MIPs to support climate research, assessment, and service goals across prediction and projection, characterization, attribution, and process understanding.

Environmental sciences↗

Development of Improved Techniques for Satellite Remote Sensing of Clouds and Radiation Using Arm Data (Final Report)

During the period, March 1997 – February 2006, the Principal Investigator and his research team co-authored 47 peer-reviewed papers and presented, at least, 138 papers at conferences, meetings, and workshops that were supported either in whole or in part by this agreement. We developed a state-of-the-art satellite cloud processing system that generates cloud properties over the Atmospheric Radiation (ARM) surface sites and surrounding domains in near-real time and outputs the results on the world wide web in image and digital formats. When the products are quality controlled, they are sent to the ARM archive for further dissemination. These products and raw satellite images can be accessed at http://cloudsgate2.larc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/site/showdoc?docid=4&cmd=field-experiment-homepage&exp=ARM and are used by many in the ARM science community. The algorithms used in this system to generate cloud properties were validated and improved by the research conducted under this agreement. The team supported, at least, 11 ARM-related or supported field experiments by providing near-real time satellite imagery, cloud products, model results, and interactive analyses for mission planning, execution, and post-experiment scientific analyses. Comparisons of cloud properties derived from satellite, aircraft, and surface measurements were used to evaluate uncertainties in the cloud properties. Multiple-angle satellite retrievals were used to determine the influence of cloud structural and microphysical properties on the exiting radiation field.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

From land use to land cover: Restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment - earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations

Climate projections depend on scenarios of fossil fuel emissions and land use change, and the IPCC AR5 parallel process assumes consistent climate scenarios across Integrated Assessment and Earth System Models (IAMs and ESMs). To facilitate consistency, CMIP5 used a novel land use harmonization to provide ESMs with seamless, 1500-2100 land use trajectories generated by historical data and four IAMs. However, we have identified and partially addressed a major gap in the CMIP5 land coupling design. The CMIP5 Community ESM (CESM) global afforestation is only 22% of RCP4.5 afforestation from 2005 to 2100. Likewise, only 17% of the Global Change Assessment Model’s (GCAM’s) 2040 RCP4.5 afforestation signal, and none of the pasture loss, were transmitted to CESM within a newly integrated model. This is a critical problem because afforestation is necessary for achieving the RCP4.5 climate stabilization. We attempted to rectify this problem by modifying only the ESM component of the integrated model, enabling CESM to simulate 66% of GCAM’s afforestation in 2040, and 94% of GCAM’s pasture loss as grassland and shrubland losses. This additional afforestation increases vegetation carbon gain by 19 PgC and decreases atmospheric CO2 gain by 8 ppmv from 2005 to 2040, implying different climate scenarios between CMIP5 GCAM and CESM. Similar inconsistencies likely exist in other CMIP5 model results, primarily because land cover information is not shared between models, with possible contributions from afforestation exceeding model-specific, potentially viable forest area. Further work to harmonize land cover among models will be required to adequately rectify this problem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A comprehensive dataset for the accelerated development and benchmarking of solar forecasting methods

We describe and release a comprehensive solar irradiance, imaging, and forecasting dataset. Our goal with this release is to provide standardized solar and meteorological datasets to the research community for the accelerated development and benchmarking of forecasting methods. The data consist of three years (2014–2016) of quality-controlled, 1-min resolution global horizontal irradiance and direct normal irradiance ground measurements in California. In addition, we provide overlapping data from commonly used exogenous variables, including sky images, satellite imagery, and Numerical Weather Prediction forecasts. We also include sample codes of baseline models for benchmarking of more elaborated models.

Remote sensing↗

Performance of wind assessment datasets in United States coastal areas

The atmospheric dynamics that occur near the intersection of land and water offer exciting and challenging opportunities for wind energy deployment in coastal locations. New models and tools are continually being developed in support of wind resource assessment, and three recent products are explored in this work for their performance in representing characteristics of the wind resource at coastal locations: the Global Wind Atlas 3 (GWA3), the 2023 National Offshore Wind dataset (NOW-23), and the wind climate simulations that are a component of the Wind Integration National Dataset (WIND) Toolkit Long-Term Ensemble Dataset (WTK-LED Climate). These relatively new products are freely available and user-friendly so that anyone – from a utility-scale developer to a resident or business owner – can evaluate the potential for wind energy generation at their location of interest. The validations in this work provide guidance on the accuracy of wind resource assessments for coastal customers interested in installing small or midsize wind turbines (≤ 1 MW in capacity) to support energy needs at the residential, business, or community scale, such as the island and remotely located participants of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project. At 23 coastal locations across the United States, dataset performance varies according to different evaluation metrics. All three recent datasets tend to overestimate the observed coastal wind resource. GWA3 produces the smallest annual average wind speed relative errors, whereas WTK-LED Climate is in best agreement in terms of representing diurnal wind speed cycles. NOW-23 is the highest performing of the datasets for representing seasonal and interannual trends in the coastal wind resource. While GWA3 and WTK-LED Climate are relatively insensitive to the dataset output heights selected for wind resource assessment at small and midsize wind turbine hub heights (20–60 m), significant variation in the NOW-23 representation of wind shear across the wind profile in the lowest 100 m of the atmosphere leads to notable differences in wind speed estimates according to the dataset output heights selected for evaluation. GWA3 exhibits challenges in the representation of observed wind speed diurnal cycles at small and midsize turbine hub heights, likely due to the dataset's consistent treatment of hourly wind speed trends regardless of altitude.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Impacts of interactive dust and its direct radiative forcing on interannual variations of temperature and precipitation in winter over East Asia

In this work, we used 150-year pre-industrial simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to quantify the impacts of interactively-modeled dust emissions on the interannual variations of temperature and precipitation over East Asia during the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) season. The simulated December-January-February dust column burden and dust optical depth are lower over northern China in the strongest EAWM years than those of the weakest years, with regional mean values lower by 38.3% and 37.2%, respectively. The decrease in dust over the dust source regions (the Taklamakan and Gobi Deserts) and the downwind region (such as the North China Plain) leads to an increase in direct radiative forcing (RF) both at the surface and top of atmosphere by up to 1.5 and 0.75 W m-2, respectively. The effects of EAWM-related variations in surface winds, precipitation and their effects on dust emissions and wet removal contribute about 67% to the total dust-induced variations of direct RF at the surface and partly offset the cooling that occurs with the EAWM strengthening by heating the surface. The variations of surface air temperature induced by the changes in wind and dust emissions increase by 0.4-0.6 K over eastern coastal China, northeastern China, and Japan, which weakens the impact of EAWM on surface air temperature by 3–18% in these regions. The warming results from the combined effects of changes in direct RF and easterly wind anomalies that bring warm air from the ocean to these regions. Moreover, the feedback of the changes in wind on dust emissions weakens the variations of the sea level pressure gradient on the Siberian High while enhancing the Maritime Continent Low. Therefore, cold air is prevented from being transported from Siberia, Kazakhstan, western and central China to the western Pacific Ocean and decreases surface air temperature by 0.6 K and 2 K over central China and the Tibetan Plateau, respectively. Over eastern coastal China, the variations of large-scale precipitation induced by the feedback of EAWM-related changes in wind on dust emissions increase by 10-30% in winter because of the increase in surface air temperature and the anomalous circulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Version 3: 1. Overview of the Atmospheric Component

This paper describes the atmospheric component of the US Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 3. Significant updates have been made to the atmospheric physics compared to earlier versions. Specifically, interactive gas chemistry has been implemented, along with improved representations of aerosols and dust emissions. A new stratiform cloud microphysics scheme more physically treats ice processes and aerosol‐cloud interactions. The deep convection parameterization has been largely improved with sophisticated microphysics for convective clouds, making model convection sensitive to large‐scale dynamics, and incorporating the dynamical and physical effects of organized mesoscale convection. Improvements in aerosol wet removal processes and parameter re‐tuning of key aerosol and cloud processes have improved model aerosol radiative forcing. The model's vertical resolution has increased from 72 to 80 layers with the extra eight layers added in the lower stratosphere to better simulate the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation. These improvements have enhanced E3SM's capability to couple aerosol, chemistry, and biogeochemistry and reduced some long‐standing biases in simulating tropical variability. Compared to its predecessors, the model shows a much stronger signal for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, Kelvin waves, mixed Rossby‐gravity waves, and eastward inertia‐gravity waves. Aerosol radiative forcing has been considerably reduced and is now better aligned with community best estimates, leading to significantly improved skill in simulating historical temperature records. Its simulated mean‐state climate is largely comparable to E3SMv2, but with some notable degradation in shortwave cloud radiative effect, precipitable water, and surface wind stress, which will be addressed in future updates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using research networks to create the comprehensive datasets needed to assess nutrient availability as a key determinant of terrestrial carbon cycling

A wide range of research shows that nutrient availability strongly influences terrestrial carbon (C) cycling and shapes ecosystem responses to environmental changes and hence terrestrial feedbacks to climate. Nonetheless, our understanding of nutrient controls remains far from complete and poorly quantified, at least partly due to a lack of informative, comparable, and accessible datasets at regional-to-global scales. A growing research infrastructure of multi-site networks are providing valuable data on C fluxes and stocks and are monitoring their responses to global environmental change and measuring responses to experimental treatments. These networks thus provide an opportunity for improving our understanding of C-nutrient cycle interactions and our ability to model them. However, coherent information on how nutrient cycling interacts with observed C cycle patterns is still generally lacking. Here, we argue that complementing available C-cycle measurements from monitoring and experimental sites with data characterizing nutrient availability will greatly enhance their power and will improve our capacity to forecast future trajectories of terrestrial C cycling and climate. Therefore, we propose a set of complementary measurements that are relatively easy to conduct routinely at any site or experiment and that, in combination with C cycle observations, can provide a robust characterization of the effects of nutrient availability across sites. In addition, we discuss the power of different observable variables for informing the formulation of models and constraining their predictions. Most widely available measurements of nutrient availability often do not align well with current modelling needs. This highlights the importance to foster the interaction between the empirical and modelling communities for setting future research priorities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigation of microwave backscatter from the air-sea interface

Monitoring the ocean surface winds and mean ocean surface level is essential for improving our knowledge of the climate. Two instruments that may provide us with this information are satellite-based scatterometers and altimeters. However, these instruments measure the backscatter characteristics of the ocean surface from which other physical parameters, such as the wind speed or ocean surface height, are derived. To improve the algorithms or models that relate the electromagnetic backscatter to the desired physical parameters, the University of Massachusetts (UMass) Microwave Remote Sensing Laboratory (MIRSL) designed and fabricated three airborne scatterometers: a C-band scatterometer (CSCAT), Ku-band scatterometer (KUSCAT) and C/Ku-band scatterometer (EMBR). One or more of these instruments participated in the Electromagnetic Bias experiment (EM Bias), Shelf Edge Exchange Processes experiment (SEEP), Surface Wave Dynamics Experiment (SWADE), Southern Ocean Wave Experiment (SOWEX), Hurricane Tina research flights, Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE), and Ladir In-space Technology Experiment (LITE). This document describes the three scatterometers, summarizes our measurement campaigns and major contributions to the scientific and engineering communities, lists the publications that resulted, and presents the degrees earned under the support of this NASA grant.

Mcintosh, Robert E.↗

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 33, No. 1, January-March 1992]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 1 Technical Note: A New Approach to Fission Reactor Safety, Yu. V. Petrov; 5 Erratum; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 6 Analysis and Modeling of Fission Product Release from Various Uranium-Aluminum Plate-Type Reactor Fuels, R. P. Taleyarkhan; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 23 Applications of a Surveillance and Diagnostics Methodology Using Neutron Noise From a Pressurized-Water Reactor, R. T. Wood, L. F. Miller, and R. B. Perez; DESIGN FEATURES: 36 Westinghouse Advanced Passive 600 Plant, B. A. McIntyre and R. K. Beck; 47 System 80+™ PWR Safety Design, C. W. Bagnal, R. A. Matzie, and R. S. Turk; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 58 The MATS Experiments—Mesoscale Atmospheric Transport Studies at the Savannah River Site, A. H. Weber, S. Berman, R. J. Kurzeja, and R. P. Addis; 75 Book Review: Environmental Radioactivity in the European Community 1984-1985-1986, C. A. Little; WASTE AND SPENT FUEL MANAGEMENT: 76 Activities Related to Waste and Spent Fuel Management, M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 87 Aging Assessment of BWR Control Rod Drive Systems, R. H. Greene; 100 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; 103 Selected Safety-Related Events, Compiled by G. A. Murphy; 110 Operating U.S. Power Reactors, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 129 General Administrative Activities, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; 139 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 143 Proposed Rule Changes as of Sept. 30 1991; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 128 Harvard School of Public Health Announces Short Courses; 128 16th Biennial ANS Topical Meeting on Reactor Operating Experience: Present and Future Technologies—Applying Lessons Learned (Call for Papers); 147 The Authors; 150 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volume 32; 154 Errata.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 33, No. 1, January-March 1992]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 1 Technical Note: A New Approach to Fission Reactor Safety, Yu. V. Petrov; 5 Erratum; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 6 Analysis and Modeling of Fission Product Release from Various Uranium-Aluminum Plate-Type Reactor Fuels, R. P. Taleyarkhan; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 23 Applications of a Surveillance and Diagnostics Methodology Using Neutron Noise From a Pressurized-Water Reactor, R. T. Wood, L. F. Miller, and R. B. Perez; DESIGN FEATURES: 36 Westinghouse Advanced Passive 600 Plant, B. A. McIntyre and R. K. Beck; 47 System 80+™ PWR Safety Design, C. W. Bagnal, R. A. Matzie, and R. S. Turk; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 58 The MATS Experiments—Mesoscale Atmospheric Transport Studies at the Savannah River Site, A. H. Weber, S. Berman, R. J. Kurzeja, and R. P. Addis; 75 Book Review: Environmental Radioactivity in the European Community 1984-1985-1986, C. A. Little; WASTE AND SPENT FUEL MANAGEMENT: 76 Activities Related to Waste and Spent Fuel Management, M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 87 Aging Assessment of BWR Control Rod Drive Systems, R. H. Greene; 100 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher; 103 Selected Safety-Related Events, Compiled by G. A. Murphy; 110 Operating U.S. Power Reactors, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 129 General Administrative Activities, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; 139 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 143 Proposed Rule Changes as of Sept. 30 1991; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 128 Harvard School of Public Health Announces Short Courses; 128 16th Biennial ANS Topical Meeting on Reactor Operating Experience: Present and Future Technologies—Applying Lessons Learned (Call for Papers); 147 The Authors; 150 Indexes to Nuclear Safety, Volume 32; 154 Errata.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Earth Radiation Imbalance from a Constellation of 66 Iridium Satellites: Climate Science Aspects

The "global warming hiatus" since the 1998 El Nino, highlighted by Meehl et al., and the resulting "missing energy" problem highlighted by Trenberth et al., has opened the door to a more fundamental view of climate change than mere surface air temperature. That new view is based on two variables which are strongly correlated: the rate of change of ocean heat content d(OHC)/dt; and Earth Radiation Imbalance (ERI) at the top of the atmosphere, whose guesstimated range is 0.4 to 0.9 Watts per square meters (this imbalance being mainly due to increasing CO2). The Argo float array is making better and better measurements of OHC. But existing satellite systems cannot measure ERI to even one significant digit. So, climate model predictions of ERI are used in place of real measurements of it, and the satellite data are tuned to the climate model predictions. Some oceanographers say "just depend on Argo for understanding the global warming hiatus and the missing energy", but we don't think this is a good idea because d(OHC)/dt and ERI have different time scales and are never perfectly correlated. We think the ERB community needs to step up to measuring ERI correctly, just as oceanographers have deployed Argo to measure OHC correctly. This talk will overview a proposed constellation of 66 Earth radiation budget instruments, hosted on Iridium satellites, that will actually be able to measure ERI to at least one significant digit, thus enabling a crucial test of climate models. This constellation will also be able to provide ERI at two-hourly time scales and 500-km spatial scales without extrapolations from uncalibrated narrowband geostationary instruments, using the highly successful methods of GRACE to obtain spatial resolution. This high time resolution would make ERI a synoptic variable like temperature, and allow studies of ERI's response to fast-evolving phenomena like dust storms and hurricanes and even brief excursions of Total Solar Irradiance. Time permitting, we will also discuss the emerging view of clear vs. cloudy and its implications for the traditional ERB approach.

Wiscombe, W.↗

Improved Simulations of Atmospheric River Climatology and Variability in High-Resolution CESM

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) can trigger extreme rainfall and snowfall events, causing high risk of flooding. Meanwhile, they are sometimes responsible for the occurrence and break of drought events. So, it is of great importance for weather and climate forecast models to accurately represent ARs. Studies have shown that AR variability is linked to various climate modes, such as El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Pacific-North America pattern, providing the potential for predicting ARs at subseasonal-to-decadal timescales. In this study, we examine the impact of climate model resolution on AR simulations and their relationship with major climate modes by comparing a pair of high-resolution and a low-resolution (LR) Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations against the observations. The results reveal major deficiencies in LR that include underestimated climatological AR strength and associated precipitation, and inaccurate representations of ARs relationships with climate modes. Significant improvements are observed by increasing CESM horizontal resolution, suggesting a path for more accurate prediction of ARs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Early Radiometric Validation Results of the Ceres Flight Model 1 and 2 Instruments Onboard NASA's Terra Spacecraft

The CERES Flight Model 1 and 2 instruments were launched aboard NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra Spacecraft on December 18, 1999 into a 705 Km sun-synchronous orbit with a 10:30 a.m. equatorial crossing time. These instruments supplement measurements made by the CERES Proto Flight Model (PFM) instrument launched aboard NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) spacecraft on November 27, 1997 into a 350 Km, 38-degree mid-inclined orbit. An important aspect of the EOS program is the rapid archival and dissemination of datasets measured by EOS instruments to the scientific community. On September 22, 2000 the CERES Science Team voted to archive the Edition 1 CERES/Terra Level 1b and Level 2 and 3 ERBE-Like data products. These products consist of instantaneous filtered and unfiltered radiances through temporally and spatially averaged TOA fluxes. CERES filtered radiance measurements cover three spectral bands including shortwave (0.3 to 5 micron), total (0.3 to less than 100 microns) and an atmospheric window channel (8 to 12 microns). The current work summarizes both the philosophy and results of validation efforts undertaken to quantify the quality of the Terra data products as well as the level of agreement between the Terra and TRMM datasets.

Priestley, K. J.↗