8760-Based Method for Representing Variable Generation Capacity Value in Capacity Expansion Models
Capacity expansion models (CEMs) are widely used to evaluate the least-cost portfolio of electricity generators, transmission, and storage needed to reliably serve load over many years or decades. CEMs can be computationally complex and are often forced to estimate key parameters using simplified methods to achieve acceptable solve times or for other reasons. In this paper, we discuss one of these parameters -- capacity value (CV). We first provide a high-level motivation for and overview of CV. We next describe existing modeling simplifications and an alternate approach for estimating CV that utilizes hourly '8760' data of load and VG resources. We then apply this 8760 method to an established CEM, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model (Eurek et al. 2016). While this alternative approach for CV is not itself novel, it contributes to the broader CEM community by (1) demonstrating how a simplified 8760 hourly method, which can be easily implemented in other power sector models when data is available, more accurately captures CV trends than a statistical method within the ReEDS CEM, and (2) providing a flexible modeling framework from which other 8760-based system elements (e.g., demand response, storage, and transmission) can be added to further capture important dynamic interactions, such as curtailment.