Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Distributed Estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,423 records · Page 79

Sorption of Cationic Radionuclides on Chlorite and Sericite formed by the Hydrothermal Alteration - 18180

Chlorite and sericite formed by the hydrothermal alteration of granite distribute predominantly around the geological repository in deep underground. These minerals often cover the surface of a solid phase and fill the fracture of granite considered as the natural barrier to the migration of radionuclides leaching from radioactive waste. Therefore, to assess the practical performance of the natural barrier, it is necessary to clarify the interaction between radionuclides and these minerals. This study examined the sorption of cationic radionuclides by chlorite and sericite through batch experiments, whereby Cs{sup +}, Sr{sup 2+}, and Eu{sup 3+} were used as tracer ions. In these experiments, powder-form chlorite or sericite was mixed with the solutions of the tracer ions to a liquid/solid ratio of 10 ml/g, and the resulting mixture was allowed to incubate for 2-7 days. The concentration of tracer ions was set to 1 mM and that of NaCl to a specific value in the 0-0.6 M range. The solution pH was 3, 5, or 8. As a result, tracer ions were significantly adsorbed by chlorite and sericite, regardless of pH or NaCl concentration, except when NaCl concentration reached the high value of 0.6 M. The distribution coefficient for europium ions at pH 5 was estimated to be 2-7 mL/g in chlorite and 10{sup 3}-10{sup 4} mL/g in sericite. These values significantly exceeded that measured for feldspar (2-4 mL/g), the predominant component of granite before it undergoes any hydrothermal alteration. These results suggest that cationic radionuclides will be immobilized through sorption in chlorite and sericite filling granite fractures, even if these thermal-fluid-formed minerals cover the surface of granite. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Transportation Electrification Impact Study (TEIS)

Recent U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) notices of proposed rulemakings for GHG emissions standards for light-, medium-, and heavy-duty on-road vehicles would accelerate ongoing advancements already happening in the industry because of private investment, consumer demand, state-level policies, and federal incentives. As the EPA finalizes these regulations, questions persist regarding the cost of the requisite charging infrastructure and associated upgrades to the nation's electric grid. With support from the U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Joint Office of Energy and Transportation, and the EPA, a multidisciplinary team conducted a Multi-State Transportation Electrification Impact Study that quantitatively assesses the incremental investment necessary to enable the levels of vehicle electrification expected to be induced by pending EPA regulations and to estimate the potential value of deferred investments in electric distribution infrastructure stemming from proactive vehicle-grid integration planning and deployment. This study finds the simulated incremental capital cost of charging infrastructure (including grid upgrades) to be at least 2.5 times smaller than the lifetime net benefits of vehicle electrification (including fuel savings but excluding the value of avoided emissions). Additionally, the incremental distribution grid upgrade cost of the EPA Action-Unmanaged scenario was found to be approximately 3% of existing utility distribution system investments (on an annual basis). Finally, the potential for managed charging to defer distribution grid upgrades was found to be significant with costs found to decrease from $2.3 billion to an incremental cost of $1 billion across five states in the Action-Managed scenario (relative to the No Action-Unmanaged scenario).

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,POWER TRANSMISSION AND↗

MODELS FOR ESTIMATING THE AUTOFRETTAGE PRESSURE AND RESIDUAL STRESSES IN WALLS OF TYPE 2 PRESSURE VESSELS

Autofrettage is a manufacturing process used during fabrication of Type 2 pressure vessels designed for usage at high pressures to enhance the fatigue life. The process locks high compressive residual stresses in the vessel’s liner wall that reduce the maximum and the mean stress during service loading. To achieve a consistent residual stress profile across the wall of the vessel, the choice of autofrettage pressure is critical. Several finite element analyses runs were conducted to estimate the correct autofrettage pressure that is a function of the yield strength of the liner material, the wall thickness, and the outside diameter of the liner for a wrap thickness of 17.06 mm (48 wire layers). From the finite element analyses results, models were developed to estimate the correct autofrettage pressure and the residual stress distribution across the liner wall as a function of the yield strength of the liner material, the wall thickness, and the outside diameter of the liner.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Estimating and Calibrating DER Model Parameters Using Levenberg–Marquardt Algorithm in Renewable Rich Power Grid

The proliferation of inverter-based distributed energy resources (IBDERs) has increased the number of control variables and dynamic interactions, leading to new grid control challenges. For stability analysis and designing appropriate protection controls, it is important that IBDER models are accurate. This paper focuses on the accurate estimation and parameter calibration of DER_A, a recently proposed aggregated IBDER model. In particular, we focus on the parameters of the reactive power–voltage regulation module. We formulate the problem of parameter tuning as a non-linear least square minimization problem and solve it using the Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) method. The LM method is primarily chosen due to its flexibility in adaptively selecting between the steepest descent and Gauss–Newton methods through a damping parameter. The LM approach is used to minimize the error between the actual measurements and the estimated response of the model. Further, the computational challenges posed by the numerical calculation of the Jacobian are tackled using a quasi-Newton root-finding approach. The proposed method is validated on a real feeder model in the northeastern part of the United States. The feeder is modeled in OpenDSS and the measurements thus obtained are fed to the DER_A model for calibration. The simulation results indicate that our approach is able to successfully calibrate the relevant model parameters quickly and with high accuracy, with a total sum of square error of 3.57 × 10 –7 .

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Detection of Stealthy False Data Injection Attacks in Unobservable Distribution Networks

In this paper, a composite scheme is proposed for detecting stealthy data manipulation attacks on distribution system which is unobservable with standard least squares based state estimators. This technique has three stages where the process of data imputation, voltage phasor estimation and the bad data detection are carried out in a systematic manner. The proposed approach is then integrated with moving target defense strategies which perturbs the network parameters to reveal stealthy false data injection attacks. The proposed approach is tested is validated on a three-phase, unbalanced 37-node distribution system and its results are presented. It is shown that the proposed approach has the ability to accurately detect the presence of FDI attacks using limited measurements (i.e., the test system is unobservable).

Rajasekaran, James K.↗

Mercury Speciation of Hanford 241-AP-107 Tank Waste Samples - 20384

The concentration of key mercury species in the Hanford tank waste has not been previously measured. Based on process knowledge, an estimated inventory of 2,100 kg of mercury is assumed and was distributed in varied amounts across 149 single-shell tanks (SSTs) and 28 double-shell tanks (DSTs). Limited analyses of individual SSTs and DSTs for total mercury were all below detection, yielding upper limits in concentration estimates based solely on instrument detection limits, resulting in an uncertain mercury inventory for Hanford tanks. Accurate and reliable chemical speciation and quantification is desired to anticipate, predict, and abate the mass movements of various mercury species through the Hanford waste processing flowsheet. Highly sensitive separation and quantification methods for total, elemental, and monomethyl mercury species, in tank waste, have been developed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's (PNNL) Radiochemical Processing Laboratory (RPL). A non-radiological environmental method to quantify mercury species has been adapted for application to Hanford tank 241-AP-107 raw supernatant feed, filtered feed, and cesium-decontaminated samples. These samples represent feed inventory and pretreatment process effluents prior to immobilization by vitrification. This method separates and preconcentrates total, elemental, and monomethyl mercury onto selective solid substrates with little-to-no radioactive background. The solid samples can then be released from strict radiological control, allowing for analytical work to be conducted in low-level radiological facilities. Separation of mercury species was demonstrated at PNNL's RPL in Richland, Washington before transport and analytical quantification using cold vapor atomic fluorescence spectrometry (CVAFS) at PNNL's Marine Science Laboratory (MSL) in Sequim, Washington. Additional studies were conducted to assess the stability of monomethyl mercury in distilled matrices and preconcentrated onto the Carbotrap{sup R} solid substrate to assess sample degradation over time during transport. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Investigating the vertical distribution of the disk as a function of radial action

As heating processes can broaden the distributions of radial actions and the vertical distributions of the Galactic disks, we investigate the vertical distribution of the Galactic disks as a function of radial action based on Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) and Gaia data in order to deepen our understanding of the formation and heating history of the Galactic disks. The vertical distributions of the thin and thick Galactic disks defined in the chemical plane were fitted with a simple exponential function with a free parameter of scale height in different radial action ranges. Therefore, we were able to analyze the scale height as a function of radial action for different disk populations. We find that the distributions of radial action for both the thin and thick disks can be approximately described by pseudo-isothermal distributions, which give a statistical measurement for the temperature of the disk as indicated by the mean radial action of the star sample. Estimations of the scale heights in different radial action ranges for these pseudo-isothermal distributions of the disks seem to show fixed relationships between radial action J R and scale height h. We describe these relationships with a two-parameter function of h = √(J R /a)+b, where a and b are free parameters. When testing with a three-parameter function of h = α √(J R /a)+b, we find that this two-parameter function describes the thin disk well, but we note the function should be used with care for the thick disk. When comparing the best-fit relationships between the inner and outer disk for both of the thin and thick disks, we find that the relationships are nearly the same for the thin disks but are different for the thick disks. The inner thick disk shows a nearly flattened relationship, while the outer thick disk presents a gradually increasing relationship. This work highlights an alternative way to unveil the heating history of the disks by investigating the relationship between scale height and radial action, as these relationships encode the formation and heating history of the Galactic disks.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Multiresolution spatiotemporal mechanical model of the heart as a prior to constrain the solution for 4D models of the heart

In several nuclear cardiac imaging applications (SPECT and PET), images are formed by reconstructing tomographic data using an iterative reconstruction algorithm with corrections for physical factors involved in the imaging detection process and with corrections for cardiac and respiratory motion. The physical factors are modeled as coefficients in the matrix of a system of linear equations and include attenuation, scatter, and spatially varying geometric response. The solution to the tomographic problem involves solving the inverse of this system matrix. This requires the design of an iterative reconstruction algorithm with a statistical model that best fits the data acquisition. The most appropriate model is based on a Poisson distribution. Using Bayes Theorem, an iterative reconstruction algorithm is designed to determine the maximum a posteriori estimate of the reconstructed image with constraints that maximizes the Bayesian likelihood function for the Poisson statistical model. The a priori distribution is formulated as the joint entropy (JE) to measure the similarity between the gated cardiac PET image and the cardiac MRI cine image modeled as a FE mechanical model. In conclusion, the developed algorithm shows the potential of using a FE mechanical model of the heart derived from a cardiac MRI cine scan to constrain solutions of gated cardiac PET images.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Production of Synthetic Natural Gas From Carbon Dioxide and Renewably Generated Hydrogen: A Techno-Economic Analysis of a Power-to-Gas Strategy

Power-to-gas to energy systems are of increasing interest for low carbon fuels production and as a low-cost grid-balancing solution for renewables penetration. However, such gas generation systems are typically focused on hydrogen production, which has compatibility issues with the existing natural gas pipeline infrastructures. This study presents a power-to-synthetic natural gas (SNG) plant design and a techno-economic analysis of its performance for producing SNG by reacting renewably generated hydrogen from low-temperature electrolysis with captured carbon dioxide. The study presents a 'bulk' methanation process that is unique due to the high concentration of carbon oxides and hydrogen. Carbon dioxide, as the only carbon feedstock, has much different reaction characteristics than carbon monoxide. Thermodynamic and kinetic considerations of the methanation reaction are explored to design a system of multistaged reactors for the conversion of hydrogen and carbon dioxide to SNG. Heat recuperation from the methanation reaction is accomplished using organic Rankine cycle (ORC) units to generate electricity. The product SNG has a Wobbe index of 47.5?MJ/m3 and the overall plant efficiency (H2/CO2 to SNG) is shown to be 78.1% LHV (83.2% HHV). The nominal production cost for SNG is estimated at 132 $/MWh (38.8 $/MMBTU) with 3 $/kg hydrogen and a 65% capacity factor. At U.S. DOE target hydrogen production costs (2.2 $/kg), SNG cost is estimated to be as low as 97.6 $/MWh (28.6 $/MMBtu or 1.46 $/kgSNG).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Estimating Electron Temperature and Density Using Van Allen Probe Data: Typical Behavior of Energetic Electrons in the Inner Magnetosphere

Abstract The Earth's inner magnetosphere contains multiple electron populations influenced by different factors. The cold electrons of the plasmasphere, warm plasma that contributes to the ring current, and the relativistic plasma of the radiation belts often seem to behave independently. Using omni‐directional flux and energy measurements from the HOPE and Magnetic Electron Ion Spectrometer instruments aboard the Van Allen Probes, we provide a detailed density and temperature description of the inner magnetosphere, offering a comprehensive statistical analysis of the entire Van Allen Probe era. While number density and temperature data at geosynchronous orbit are available, this study focuses on the warm plasma in the inner magnetosphere . Values of density and temperature are extracted by fitting energy and phase space density to obtain the distribution function. The fitted distributions are related to the zeroth and second moments to estimate the number density and temperature. Analysis has indicated that a two Maxwellian fit is sufficient over a wide range of and that there are two independent plasma populations. The more energetic population has a median number density of approximately and a temperature of around 130 keV, with a temperature peak observed between L * = 4 and L * = 4.5. This population is relatively uniform in magnetic local time (MLT). In contrast, the less energetic warm electron population has a median number density of about and a temperature of 7.4 keV. Strong statistical trends in density and temperature across both L * and MLT are presented, along with potential sources driving these variations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Diverse Super-Resolution (diversity_SR) [SWR-21-60]

Deep learning tools for enhancing the spatial resolution of wind data. The software is developed in Python using the TensorFlow deep learning package. Models for diversity super-resolution is provided. Included in the package are pretrained models with example code/data to perform the super-resolution as well as tools of training models for different enhancement- or data-types. The super-resolution is an inherently ill-conditioned problem, with multiple high-resolution fields plausibly mapping to the same coarse field. Considitional GANs provide a framework for generating a distribution of high-resolution realizations from a given low-resolution input. Stochastic estimation is used to inform the network of the expected degree and location of sub-grid diversity. The package includes a pretrained network to generate distributions of 10x-enhanced fields of wind data.

Glaws, Andrew↗

The agglomeration and dispersion dichotomy of human settlements on Earth

Human settlements on Earth are scattered in a multitude of shapes, sizes and spatial arrangements. These patterns are often not random but a result of complex geographical, cultural, economic and historical processes that have profound human and ecological impacts. However, little is known about the global distribution of these patterns and the spatial forces that creates them. This study analyses human settlements from high-resolution satellite imagery and provides a global classification of spatial patterns. We find two emerging classes, namely agglomeration and dispersion. In the former, settlements are fewer than expected based on the predictions of scaling theory, while an unexpectedly high number of settlements characterizes the latter. To explain the observed spatial patterns, we propose a model that combines two agglomeration forces and simulates human settlements’ historical growth. Our results show that our model accurately matches the observed global classification (F1: 0.73), helps to understand and estimate the growth of human settlements and, in turn, the distribution and physical dynamics of all human settlements on Earth, from small villages to cities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Stochastic averaging and sensitivity analysis for two scale reaction networks

In the presence of multiscale dynamics in a reaction network, direct simulation methods become inefficient as they can only advance the system on the smallest scale. This work presents stochastic averaging techniques to accelerate computations for obtaining estimates of expected values and sensitivities with respect to the steady state distribution. A two-time-scale formulation is used to establish bounds on the bias induced by the averaging method. Further, this formulation provides a framework to create an accelerated “averaged” version of most single-scale sensitivity estimation methods. In particular, we propose the use of a centered ergodic likelihood ratio method for steady state estimation and show how one can adapt it to accelerated simulations of multiscale systems. Lastly, we develop an adaptive “batch-means” stopping rule for determining when to terminate the micro-equilibration process.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A Cost of Tractability? Estimating Climate Change Impacts Using a Single Crop Market Understates Impacts on Market Conditions and Variability

Scientists estimate that U.S. Corn Belt crop yields will increase or decrease, on average, and become more variable with climate change. Corn and soybean farming dominates this region, but studies typically do not assess the joint impact of new distributions of corn and soybean yields on markets. We use a structural economic model with projections of climate-driven yield changes to simulate these effects. Our findings suggest that a narrow focus on a single crop in this key growing region risks underestimating the impact on price distributions and average crop receipts, and can lead to incorrect signs on estimated impacts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

U.S. Distribution Transformer Demand Phase III - Key Drivers and Managing Demand [Slides]

This presentation demonstrates a significant analysis, on forecasting the demand for distribution transformers. The analysis is conducted for the United States, estimating the initial in-service capacity of these assets, and forecasting demand for these assets through 2050 with several sensitivities conducted. It examines not only demand for these assets, but importantly, how utility planning practices can impact the demand for theses assets in time. Under load growth scenarios, whether utilities practice like-for-like replacement strategies as failures occur, or whether they practice proactive up-sizing, anticipating electric load growth, can have major impacts on future demand. It also examines several other growth factors, such as the increasing demand for step-up transformers, which share many of the same characteristics as distribution transformers, and the demand for specific transformers for large project growth from data centers.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Quantifying uncertainty in Pareto estimates of global lake area

Abstract Size is a critical factor determining the rate and occurrence of specific lake processes such as carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions and emerging evidence suggests that small lakes in particular have particularly large CO 2 flux rates. Because we do not have a complete census of all lakes, upscaling estimates of such processes to small lakes at broad spatial scales requires the use of lake size‐abundance distributions rather than empirical measurements of area. Existing lake census efforts are incomplete such that as lakes become smaller, they are more likely to be omitted either because they are too small to be resolved from remote sensing products or because of limited ground surveying effort (i.e., “censoring” of small lakes relative to large lakes). The present study explores one potential shortcoming of prior approaches estimating global lake area using lake size‐abundance distributions. Namely, that these prior approaches rely on frequentist curve fitting techniques combined with an ad‐hoc cutoff determination strategy (visual inspection to determine a likely censoring point). This yields an over‐exact lake area estimate that is typically reported with no uncertainty bounds. I show how these shortcomings can be addressed with a Bayesian model that produces larger estimates of lake area uncertainty relative to the typical approach. When used as part of a sensitivity analysis, such an approach has the potential to enable more robust intercomparisons among studies of aquatic processes upscaling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Employment Effects of Hydrogen and Fuel Cells: Phase 1 Report, Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles

This report describes employment impacts associated with the manufacture, distribution and sale (MDS) of light-duty fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) under a mid-range scenario of market development and uptake. Termed “gross” employment, these estimates include direct and indirect, full-time and part-time jobs associated with manufacturing, distributing and selling FCEVs, but not the consequent reduction in employment resulting from reduced demand for conventional vehicles (i.e., displaced employment). The latter estimates are included in a forthcoming technical memorandum documenting Phase 2 of this study.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Weighted FFT estimators for 1D and 3D correlations of the Lyman- α forest

Correlations in the Lyman-α (Lyα) forest, both as a function of line of sight separation (1D) and 3D separation, provide a unique window to the distribution of matter at redshifts not accessible by current galaxy surveys. While optimal quadratic estimators have been used to measure 1D correlations, they are computationally expensive and difficult to extend to 3D analyses. On the other hand, estimators based on the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) are significantly faster, but are affected by missing data in the spectra (masked pixels) and so far have not used pixel weights to reduce the uncertainties in the measurement. In this publication we describe how to compute the window matrix that enables forward-modelling the impact of masked pixels and weights on the FFT-based estimators. Here, we use Gaussian and hydrodynamical simulations with artificially masked pixels to validate the method on the measurement of 1D correlations. Finally, we show that the formalism can be extended to model the impact on 3D correlations, in particular on the cross-spectrum, the correlation of 1D Fourier modes as a function of transverse separation. This work will enable more precise clustering measurements with the Lyα forest dataset recently collected by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI).

Lokken, Martine [Univ. Autonoma de Barcelona (Spai↗