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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,423 records · Page 79
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

A Wave Energy Converter Design Load Case Study

This article presents an example by which design loads for a wave energy converter (WEC) might be estimated through the various stages of the WEC design process. Unlike previous studies, this study considers structural loads, for which, an accurate assessment is crucial to the optimization and survival of a WEC. Three levels of computational fidelity are considered. The first set of design load approximations are made using a potential flow frequency-domain boundary-element method with generalized body modes. The second set of design load approximations are made using a modified version of the linear-based time-domain code WEC-Sim. The final set of design load simulations are realized using computational fluid dynamics coupled with finite element analysis to evaluate the WEC’s loads in response to both regular and focused waves. This study demonstrates an efficient framework for evaluating loads through each of the design stages. In comparison with experimental and high-fidelity simulation results, the linear-based methods can roughly approximate the design loads and the sea states at which they occur. The high-fidelity simulations for regular wave responses correspond well with experimental data and appear to provide reliable design load data. The high-fidelity simulations of focused waves, however, result in highly nonlinear interactions that are not predicted by the linear-based most-likely extreme response design load method.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
NASA NTRS1993

CFD flowfield simulation of Delta Launch Vehicles in a power-on configuration

This paper summarizes recent work at McDonnell Douglas Aerospace (MDA) to develop and validate computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations of under expanded rocket plume external flowfields for multibody expendable launch vehicles (ELVs). Multi engine reacting gas flowfield predictions of ELV base pressures are needed to define vehicle base drag and base heating rates for sizing external nozzle and base region insulation thicknesses. Previous ELV design programs used expensive multibody power-on wind tunnel tests that employed chamber/nozzle injected high pressure cold or hot-air. Base heating and pressure measurements were belatedly made during the first flights of past ELV's to correct estimates from semi-empirical engineering models or scale model tests. Presently, CFD methods for use in ELV design are being jointly developed at the Space Transportation Division (MDA-STD) and New Aircraft Missiles Division (MDA-NAMD). An explicit three dimensional, zonal, finite-volume, full Navier-Stokes (FNS) solver with finite rate hydrocarbon/air and aluminum combustion kinetics was developed to accurately compute ELV power-on flowfields. Mississippi State University's GENIE++ general purpose interactive grid generation code was chosen to create zonal, finite volume viscous grids. Axisymmetric, time dependent, turbulent CFD simulations of a Delta DSV-2A vehicle with a MB-3 liquid main engine burning RJ-1/LOX were first completed. Hydrocarbon chemical kinetics and a k-epsilon turbulence model were employed and predictions were validated with flight measurements of base pressure and temperature. Zonal internal/external grids were created for a Delta DSV-2C vehicle with a MB-3 and three Castor-1 solid motors burning and a Delta-2 with an RS-27 main engine (LOX/RP-1) and 9 GEM's attached/6 burning. Cold air, time dependent FNS calculations were performed for DSV-2C during 1992. Single phase simulations that employ finite rate hydrocarbon and aluminum (solid fuel) combustion chemistry are currently in progress. Reliable and efficient Eulerian algorithms are needed to model two phase (solid-gas) momentum and energy transfer mechanisms for solid motor fuel combustion products.

Pavish, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Crystallization of amorphous water ice in the solar system

Electron diffraction studies of vapor-deposited water ice have characterized the dynamical structural changes during crystallization that affect volatile retention in cometary materials. Crystallization is found to occur by nucleation of small domains, while leaving a significant part of the amorphous material in a slightly more relaxed amorphous state that coexists metastably with cubic crystalline ice. The onset of the amorphous relaxation is prior to crystallization and coincides with the glass transition. Above the glass transition temperature, the crystallization kinetics are consistent with the amorphous solid becoming a "strong" viscous liquid. The amorphous component can effectively retain volatiles during crystallization if the volatile concentration is approximately 10% or less. For higher initial impurity concentrations, a significant amount of impurities is released during crystallization, probably because the impurities are trapped on the surfaces of micropores. A model for crystallization over long timescales is described that can be applied to a wide range of impure water ices under typical astrophysical conditions if the fragility factor D, which describes the viscosity behavior, can be estimated.

NASA Center ARC↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Coupling of Dust Mineralogy to Radiation in NASA GISS ModelE: Impact Upon Dust Optical Properties and Direct Radiative Effect

Estimates of dust direct radiative effect (DRE) are still largely uncertain mainly due to the poor constraining of regional variations of dust absorption, whose known connection with mineral composition is still largely neglected by most Earth System Models. The inaccurate knowledge of soil mineralogy and insufficient measurements of dust physical and optical properties still present the main challenges for a proper representation of the dust-radiation interaction in climate models. We recently upgraded the coupling of dust minerals to shortwave radiation in the NASA GISS ModelE. In particular, we extended the interaction to online-calculated minerals and implemented two different mixing configurations: i) external mixing of three main mineral components and ii) internal mixing of all minerals, allowing a dynamic fraction of iron oxides. We used a semi-empirical approach for the optical calculations, mostly based on aerosol chamber measurements from natural soils, aiming to reduce the influence of uncertain assumptions on the optical properties and mixing state of individual minerals. In this contribution, we present the results of our first calculations of dust optical properties and DREs based on different mixing configurations of interactive minerals. We show the changes to dust optical depth and single scattering albedo, with respect to the control case using homogeneous dust composition, and the consequent global and regional variations in dust DREs at the top of atmosphere and at surface. We also compare the model optical properties with AERONET data, filtered to identify dust scenes. We find that accounting for the diverse properties of dust minerals modifies the pattern of regional dust absorption and therefore its impact upon climate. We also show that the mineralogy effect is sensitive to the assumed mixing state of minerals.

dust direct radiative effect↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cutting out the middleman: calibrating and validating a dynamic vegetation model (ED2-PROSPECT5) using remotely sensed surface reflectance

Canopy radiative transfer is the primary mechanism by which models relate vegetation composition and state to the surface energy balance, which is important to light- and temperature-sensitive plant processes as well as understanding land–atmosphere feedbacks. In addition, certain parameters (e.g., specific leaf area, SLA) that have an outsized influence on vegetation model behavior can be constrained by observations of shortwave reflectance, thus reducing model predictive uncertainty. Importantly, calibrating against radiative transfer outputs allows models to directly use remote sensing reflectance products without relying on highly derived products (such as MODIS leaf area index) whose assumptions may be incompatible with the target vegetation model and whose uncertainties are usually not well quantified. Here, we created the EDR model by coupling the two-stream representation of canopy radiative transfer in the Ecosystem Demography model version 2 (ED2) with a leaf radiative transfer model (PROSPECT-5) and a simple soil reflectance model to predict full-range, high-spectral-resolution surface reflectance that is dependent on the underlying ED2 model state. We then calibrated this model against estimates of hemispherical reflectance (corrected for directional effects) from the NASA Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) and survey data from 54 temperate forest plots in the northeastern United States. The calibration significantly reduced uncertainty in model parameters related to leaf biochemistry and morphology and canopy structure for five plant functional types.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advancing Ethanol-to-Jet cost Effectiveness via direct conversion to n -Butene-Rich olefins and Co-Product Valorization

Ethanol is a promising feedstock for sustainable aviation fuel production; however, conventional routes face significant energy and cost challenges, particularly due to the ethanol dehydration step to ethylene. Here, this study leverages breakthrough experimental data to perform comprehensive techno-economic and life-cycle assessments of an innovative ethanol-to-jet process. The process employs a single-step catalytic conversion, enabled by multifunctional Cu-ZrO 2 /SBA-16 catalyst, to directly upgrade ethanol into a mixed olefin stream rich in n-butene. The single-step conversion eliminates the costly ethanol dehydration step in the conventional process. High selectivity toward n-butene offers key advantages: it simplifies downstream oligomerization into jet-range hydrocarbons and enables the co-production of renewable n-butene alongside sustainable aviation fuel. The analysis estimates a minimum fuel selling price as low as $\$$2.50 per gallon, whether using corn ethanol or cellulosic ethanol from corn stover. Life cycle CO 2 equivalent emissions are projected to be as low as 10.6 g CO 2 eq/MJ sustainable aviation fuel, representing over 70% reduction compared to conventional petroleum-based jet fuel. This one-step ethanol upgrading approach not only facilitates SAF and n-butene co-production but also provides operational flexibility. The ability to tailor product outputs allows the ethanol-to-jet process to adapt to varying feedstocks, incentive programs, and market dynamics, ultimately enhancing the economic viability of sustainable aviation fuel production.

Xu, Yiling [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Anomalous neutron nuclear-magnetic interference spectroscopy

The electron–phonon interaction plays a critical role in materials’ electrical, thermal, optical, and superconducting properties. However, measuring the phonon mode-resolved electron–phonon interaction has been challenging. Here we propose neutron-scattering-based Anomalous Neutron nUclear-Magnetic Interference Spectroscopy (ANUBIS), where the co-existence of neutron nuclear scattering and magnetic scattering leads to anomalous dynamical structure factor under the presence of the electron–phonon interaction. Such anomalous structure factor is linear in electron–phonon coupling constant at the phonon wavevector, and is directly proportional to the momentum and energy-resolved dielectric function. The experimental configuration can be achieved using existing polarized inelastic neutron scattering setup, and an order-of-magnitude estimate shows the viability to observe the anomalous scattering signal is around to 10 –4 to 10 –3 relative to phonon scattering, which is examined through the preliminary experiments and achievable at emerging neutron facilities. As a result, our proposal offers an alternative neutron-based metrology to probe the crucial electronic properties.

Electron-phonon interactions↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ultrafast Relaxations in Ruthenium Polypyridyl Chromophores Determined by Stochastic Kinetics Simulations

Maximizing the efficiency of solar energy conversion using dye assemblies rests on understanding where the energy goes following absorption. Transient spectroscopies in solution are useful for this purpose, and the time-resolved data are usually analyzed with a sum of exponentials. This treatment assumes that dynamic events are well separated in time, and that the resulting exponential prefactors and phenomenological lifetimes are related directly to primary physical values. Such assumptions break down for coincident absorption, emission, and excited state relaxation that occur in transient absorption and photoluminescence of tris(2,2'-bipyridine)ruthenium(2+) derivatives, confounding the physical meaning of the reported lifetimes. Here, we use inductive modeling and stochastic chemical kinetics to develop a detailed description of the primary ultrafast photophysics in transient spectroscopies of a series of Ru dyes, as an alternative to sums of exponential analysis. Commonly invoked three-level schemes involving absorption, intersystem crossing (ISC), and slow nonradiative relaxation and incoherent emission to the ground state cannot reproduce the experimentally measured spectra. The kinetics simulations reveal that ultrafast decay from the singlet excited state manifold to the ground state competes with ISC to the triplet excited state, whose efficiency was determined to be less than unity. The populations predicted by the simulations are used to estimate the magnitudes of transition dipoles for excited state excitations and evaluate the influence of specific ligands. The mechanistic framework and methodology presented here are entirely general, applicable to other dye classes, and can be extended to include charge injection by molecules bound to semiconductor surfaces.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Two-point Correlation Function Studies for the Milky Way: Discovery of Spatial Clustering from Disk Excitations and Substructure

We introduce a two-particle correlation function (2PCF) for the Milky Way, constructed to probe spatial correlations in the orthogonal directions of the stellar disk in the Galactic cylindrical coordinates of R, ϕ, and z. We use this new tool to probe the structure and dynamics of the Galaxy using the carefully selected set of solar neighborhood stars (d ≲ 3 kpc) from Gaia Data Release 2 that we previously employed for studies of axial symmetry breaking in stellar number counts. We make additional, extensive tests, comparing to reference numerical simulations, to ensure our control over possibly confounding systematic effects. Supposing either axial or north–south symmetry, we divide this data set into two nominally symmetric sectors and construct the 2PCF, in the manner of the Landy–Szalay estimator, from the Gaia data. In so doing, working well away from the midplane region in which the spiral arms appear, we have discovered distinct symmetry-breaking patterns in the 2PCF in its orthogonal directions, thus establishing the existence of correlations in stellar number counts alone at subkiloparsec length scales for the very first time. In particular, we observe extensive wavelike structures of amplitude greatly in excess of what we would estimate if the system were in a steady state. We study the variations in these patterns across the Galactic disk, and with increasing ∣z∣, and we show how our results complement other observations of non-steady-state effects near the Sun, such as vertical asymmetries in stellar number counts and the Gaia snail.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2002

Wavelet Approximation in Data Assimilation

Estimation of the state of the atmosphere with the Kalman filter remains a distant goal because of high computational cost of evolving the error covariance for both linear and nonlinear systems. Wavelet approximation is presented here as a possible solution that efficiently compresses both global and local covariance information. We demonstrate the compression characteristics on the the error correlation field from a global two-dimensional chemical constituent assimilation, and implement an adaptive wavelet approximation scheme on the assimilation of the one-dimensional Burger's equation. In the former problem, we show that 99%, of the error correlation can be represented by just 3% of the wavelet coefficients, with good representation of localized features. In the Burger's equation assimilation, the discrete linearized equations (tangent linear model) and analysis covariance are projected onto a wavelet basis and truncated to just 6%, of the coefficients. A nearly optimal forecast is achieved and we show that errors due to truncation of the dynamics are no greater than the errors due to covariance truncation.

Tangborn, Andrew↗
NASA NTRS2019

New York City Panel on Climate Change 2019 Report Chapter 9: Perspectives on a City in a Changing Climate 2008-2018

Cities experience multiple environmental shifts, stresses, and shocks—such as air and water pollution—and a variety of extreme events simultaneously and continuously. Current urban programs have focused on limiting the impacts of these conditions through a portfolio of multifaceted strategies, such as regulations and codes, management and restoration projects, and citizen engagement. Global climate change represents a new environmental dynamic to which cities now have to respond. While global climate change by definition has impacts world wide, residents and managers of cities, like New York, typically perceive changes in their own local environments. In most cities, temperature is warming with increasingly hotter and longer heatwaves, and heavier downpours are leading to more frequent inland flooding. In coastal cities, sea levels are rising, exacerbating coastal flooding. Analyzing and understanding the impacts of climate change on cities is important because of the dramatic growth in urban populations throughout the world. An estimated nearly 4.0 billion people reside in urban areas, accounting for 52% of the world’s population (UN, 2017). That percentage will increase dramatically in the coming decades as almost all of the growth to take place up to 2050 will be in urban areas (UN, 2017). The New York City metropolitan region (NYMR)—the five boroughs (equivalent to counties) of New York City and the adjacent 26 counties in the states of New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut—is an ideal model of an urban agglomeration. Approximately 8.6 million people live in the five boroughs and more than 15 million people live in the neighboring smaller cities, towns, and villages (City of New York, 2018a; US Census, 2017). The population of the five boroughs is projected to add 1 million people by 2030, while the total region is projected to reach 26.1 million (NYTC, 2015).

Solecki, William↗
DOE OSTI2018

Predicting Ice Sheet and Climate Evolution on Extreme Scales (PISCEES) Final Report

Predicting Ice Sheet and Climate Evolution at Extreme Scales (PISCEES) PISCEES is a SciDAC Earth System Modeling project with the following goals: To develop and apply robust, accurate, and scalable dynamical cores for ice sheet modeling on structured and unstructured meshes with adaptive refinements To evaluate ice sheet models using new tools and data sets for verification and validation (V&V) and uncertainty quantification (UQ) To integrate these models and tools into DOE's Accelerated Climate Model for Energy (ACME) using improved estimates of ice sheet initial conditions, we will simulate decade-to-century-scale evolution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, running PISCEES ice sheet models both in standalone mode and coupled to ACME. We aim to provide useful, credible predictions, including uncertainty ranges, of future ice-sheet mass loss and resulting changes in climate and sea level. PISCEES is jointly funded by the Office of Biological and Environmental Research (BER) and the Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) of the DOE Office of Science. Participating institutions: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) Florida State University (FSU) Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) University of South Carolina (USC) University of Texas at Austin (UT) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) (https://www.scidac.gov/PISCEES/).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Triple Catalytic Action of Tertiary Nitrogen Catalysts in Recyclable Epoxy-Anhydride Thermosets

The thermosetting polymer matrix in fiber reinforced composites is an important component for energy related applications, such as the lightweighting of vehicles or their use in wind and waterpower turbine blades, due to their ability to provide superior adhesion, stiffness, and applicability to a wide range of manufacturing processes. Despite these benefits, today's thermosets are widely considered to be unrecyclable; thus, there is a large interest in redesigning these materials to be inherently recyclable so that energy intensive production of fibers and monomers can be circumvented, bolstering composite manufacture supply chains. Polyester covalent adaptable networks (PECANs) are one such promising alternative to the incumbent, nonrecyclable epoxy-amine thermosets. PECANs can be formed from the ring-opening co-polymerization (ROCOP) of epoxy-anhydride monomer mixtures and subsequent curing at mild temperatures to exhibit similar performance to conventional epoxies while also possessing unique dynamic chemistries along the ester-hydroxyl backbone that are capable of transesterification and thus reprocessability. While significant advancements have been made in formulating these materials for improved mechanical properties or optimizing solvolysis and reprocessing strategies, less attention has been placed on the impact of the residing amine catalyst used to generate the polyester network. In this work, we evaluated the triple-catalytic efficacy of 12 tertiary amines that act as a curing (bulk ROCOP), a transesterification (internal bond exchange), and a deconstruction (methanolysis) catalyst for PECAN thermosets. Specifically, we first distinguish between chain-growth and step-growth polymerization mechanisms for epoxy-amine and epoxy-anhydride mechanisms. We also utilized density functional theory (DFT) to estimate the basicity (pKb) of each catalyst. Of the tested catalysts, the ROCOP of the studied PECAN network can be completed between 95 and 247 min (at 80 degrees C), with variable gelation phenomena. Additionally, the stress relaxation (transesterification metric) efficiency of the tested PECAN networks with alternative embedded catalysts ranged from 95% to 15% reduction in stress after 5 h at 200 degrees C, and the depolymerization efficacy ranged from 2.5% to 9.8% deconstruction after 36 h at 130 degrees C. Overall, the nitrogen-based moieties were demonstrated to influence polymerization kinetics, catalyze the dynamic transesterification exchange mechanism, and aid in the solvolysis of the thermosets at end-of-life.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vibrational response and temperature of shock-compressed Pt: In situ extended x-ray absorption fine structure measurements to 325 GPa

Single pulse (~100 ps duration) extended x-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) measurements were obtained in laser shocked Pt to examine atomic vibrational properties and to determine temperatures for shock pressures from 72-325 GPa. Pt x-ray absorption spectra were recorded while a planar shock wave was propagating through the Pt sample. The absorption spectrum corresponding to the shocked Pt was obtained by subtracting the ambient Pt contribution from the measured absorption spectrum. Fits to the shocked state EXAFS data provided Pt lattice parameters consistent with the known Pt Hugoniot and the mean squared relative displacements (MSRDs) for nearest neighbor Pt atoms. Pt temperatures in the shocked state, estimated from the MSRDs using the correlated Debye model and correlated Einstein models, were consistent with both the Hugoniot temperatures calculated by integration along the Hugoniot and with the Hugoniot temperatures from published first-principles calculations. However, the agreement between the Hugoniot temperatures from EXAFS measurements and the calculated Hugoniot temperatures is not as good above 200 GPa, likely due to anharmonic effects. Furthermore, the present results demonstrate that single-pulse synchrotron EXAFS measurements in laser-shocked solids are useful for quantitative temperature determination and for examination of vibrational properties, including anharmonicity, at extreme pressure-temperature conditions.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2026

From molecular to macroscopic: predicting liquid–liquid phase equilibria and small-angle scattering of mixtures of organic liquids from atomistic simulation using Kirkwood–Buff theory

Macroscopic phase equilibria between solutions define the functionality of many biological and industrial processes, yet they are challenging to predict due to the inherent complexity of liquids containing large molecules. This work introduces an approach for the purely predictive calculation of such phase equilibria in temperature-composition space from molecular dynamics (MD) simulations at one temperature in the single-phase region. We use an approach developed previously to obtain the entropic and enthalpic contributions to the free energy of mixing from the atomic-scale information given by MD simulations via Kirkwood–Buff theory. This allows us to accurately estimate the free energy of mixing as a function of temperature, and thus obtain liquid–liquid phase equilibria, including liquid–liquid critical points, associated binodal and spinodal lines, and composition fluctuations across a region of temperature and composition. Results for binary malonamide–alkane systems are validated by comparison to a direct experimental probe of the fluctuations: the small angle X-ray scattering intensity near zero wavenumber. The MDKB → Phase method demonstrated here provides a significant improvement in predicting liquid–liquid equilibria and free energy as a function of temperature for our systems of interest compared to conventional thermodynamic models. The accurate performance of this purely predictive approach lies in its preservation of atomistic details when determining thermodynamic properties. Furthermore, its inherent extensibility to multi-component systems will likely make the MDKB → Phase approach a valuable general tool for connecting molecular interactions to macroscopic phase equilibria and for the computational screening of materials for targeted thermodynamic behavior.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cloud Feedback Uncertainty in the Equatorial Pacific Across CMIP6 Models

Cloud feedback is the largest uncertainty in estimating Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. In this study we focus on the equatorial Pacific, where CMIP6 model cloud feedback spread is notably large. Cloud radiative effects in this region are relevant for the global climate. Our findings show that models predict a consistent shift towards the ascent regime in response to El Nino-like sea surface warming. Models diverge in terms of the radiative impact due to differences in cloud characteristics in ascent and subsidence regimes. Using the observed relationship between circulation regime and cloud radiative effect, we find a reduction in the regional mean cloud feedback estimate from 0.77 to 0.22 W m -2 K -1 , though this does not substantially lessen the model spread in total feedback. Pathways to reduce this spread include: improving confidence in the regional ocean warming pattern, and using observations and models to understand cloud type and circulation interactions.

CMIP6↗
NASA NTRS2005

Internal Dynamics and Crustal Evolution of Mars

The objective of this work is to improve understanding of the internal structure, crustal evolution, and thermal history of Mars by combining geophysical data analysis of topography, gravity and magnetics with results from analytical and computational modeling. Accomplishments thus far in this investigation include: (1) development of a new crustal thickness model that incorporates constraints from Mars meteorites, corrections for polar cap masses and other surface loads, Pratt isostasy, and core flattening; (2) determination of a refined estimate of crustal thickness of Mars from geoid/topography ratios (GTRs); (3) derivation of a preliminary estimate of the k(sub 2) gravitational Love number and a preliminary estimate of possible dissipation within Mars consistent with this value; and (4) an integrative analysis of the sequence of evolution of early Mars. During the remainder of this investigation we will: (1) extend models of degree-1 mantle convection from 2-D to 3-D; (2) investigate potential causal relationships and effects of major impacts on mantle plume formation, with primary application to Mars; (3) develop exploratory models to assess the convective stability of various Martian core states as relevant to the history of dynamo action; and (4) develop models of long-wavelength relaxation of crustal thickness anomalies to potentially explain the degree-1 structure of the Martian crust.

Zuber, Maria↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Arctic Sea Ice Cover of 2016: A Year of Record-Low Highs and High-Than-Expected Lows

The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016 was highly noteworthy, as it featured record low monthly sea ice extents at the start of the year but a summer (September) extent that was higher than expected by most seasonal forecasts. Here we explore the 2016 Arctic sea ice state in terms of its monthly sea ice cover, placing this in the context of the sea ice conditions observed since 2000. We demonstrate the sensitivity of monthly Arctic sea ice extent and area estimates, in terms of their magnitude and annual rankings, to the ice concentration input data (using two widely used datasets) and to the averaging methodology used to convert concentration to extent (daily or monthly extent calculations). We use estimates of sea ice area over sea ice extent to analyse the relative “compactness†of the Arctic sea ice cover, highlighting anomalously low compactness in the summer of 2016 which contributed to the higher-than-expected September ice extent. Two cyclones that entered the Arctic Ocean during August appear to have driven this low-concentration/compactness ice cover but were not sufficient to cause more widespread melt-out and a new record-low September ice extent. We use concentration budgets to explore the regions and processes (thermodynamics/ dynamics) contributing to the monthly 2016 extent/area estimates highlighting, amongst other things, rapid ice intensification across the central eastern Arctic through September. Two different products show significant early melt onset across the Arctic Ocean in 2016, including record-early melt onset in the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic. Our results also show record-late 2016 freeze-up in the central Arctic, North Atlantic and the Alaskan Arctic sector in particular, associated with strong sea surface temperature anomalies that appeared shortly after the 2016 minimum (October onwards). We explore the implications of this low summer ice compactness for seasonal forecasting, suggesting that sea ice area could be a more reliable metric to forecast in this more seasonal, "New Arctic", sea ice regime.

sea ice↗