Results for “Model Inference” — Page 79

DOE OSTI2020

Measurements of enhanced performance in an indirect drive inertial confinement fusion experiment when reducing the contact area of the capsule support

Experimental results from indirectly driven inertial confinement fusion experiments testing the performance gained from using an alternate capsule tent support are reported. The polar tent describes an alternate geometry for the thin membrane used to support the Deuterium–Tritium (DT) filled capsule. In this work, the contact area is reduced by 23 times by locating the tent support close to the poles of the capsule. The polar tent experiments are repeats of previous 3 shock 1.63 MJ, 400 TW high foot experiments and use a 165 μm thick silicon doped carbon hydrogen plastic (CH) shell. Using the polar tent support, we report a DT neutron yield of 1.07 ×1016, 76% higher than the expected Y DT ∝V 7.7 scaling. This is, at the time of writing, the highest neutron yield to date from a CH shell implosion. Furthermore, we find that the inferred pressure when using the polar tent is significantly above the model based on analytic scaling even when accounting for tent effects. Analysis of x-ray and neutron images shows the reduction of lobes produced by nominal tent features. The reduction of these features in the polar tent experiments leads to decreased low mode (P2 and P4) asymmetry compared to the nominal tent results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Using statistical modeling to predict and understand fusion experiments

Over 300 cryogenic layered direct-drive inertial confinement fusion implosions have been successfully executed on the OMEGA Laser System in the last decade. However, extracting sufficient understanding from these experiments to develop new designs or to identify or mitigate degradation sources remains challenging. Recently, a statistical modeling approach was developed to successfully design and predict improved implosion experiments on OMEGA. Here, we show that one-dimensional simulations can be used to predict the outcomes of systematically perturbed three-dimensional simulations and that this statistical modeling approach can be used to identify or rule out physical mechanisms for some of the degradation sources observed on the OMEGA Laser System for direct-drive cryogenic inertial confinement fusion. In this instance, we investigate the fusion yield dependencies on the ion temperature asymmetries and laser beam size observed in experiments by comparing with trends in three-dimensional synthetic simulation databases. Using the statistical model on these systematically perturbed simulations, we find that the statistically inferred dependency on the measured ion temperature asymmetries is well explained by imposed ℓ =1 modes. However, we find that the dependency on the laser beam size is only dominated by the illumination non-uniformity for some extreme cases.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

FLAMINGO: combining kinetic SZ effect and galaxy–galaxy lensing measurements to gauge the impact of feedback on large-scale structure

Energetic feedback processes associated with accreting supermassive black holes can expel gas from massive haloes and significantly alter various measures of clustering on $\sim$Mpc scales, potentially biasing the values of cosmological parameters inferred from analyses of large-scale structure (LSS) if not modelled accurately. Here, we use the state-of-the-art FLAMINGO suite of cosmological hydrodynamical simulations to gauge the impact of feedback on large-scale structure by comparing to Planck + ACT stacking measurements of the kinetic Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (kSZ) effect of SDSS BOSS galaxies. We make careful like-with-like comparisons to the observations, aided by high precision KiDS and DES galaxy–galaxy lensing measurements of the BOSS galaxies to inform the selection of the simulated galaxies. In qualitative agreement with several recent studies using dark matter only simulations corrected for baryonic effects, we find that the kSZ effect measurements prefer stronger feedback than predicted by simulations which have been calibrated to reproduce the gas fractions of low redshift X-ray-selected groups and clusters. We find that the increased feedback can help to reduce the so-called $S_8$ tension between the observed and CMB-predicted clustering on small scales as probed by cosmic shear (although at the expense of agreement with the X-ray group measurements). However, the increased feedback is only marginally effective at reducing the reported offsets between the predicted and observed clustering as probed by the thermal SZ (tSZ) effect power spectrum and tSZ effect – weak lensing cross-spectrum, both of which are sensitive to higher halo masses than cosmic shear.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Deblurring for nuclei: 3D characteristics of heavy-ion collisions

Observables from nuclear and high-energy experiments can be degraded by detector performance and/or methodology in extracting the observables, such as of the final-state characteristics of heavy-ion collisions in relation to a coarsely estimated reaction-plane direction. We propose the use of deblurring methods, such as in optics, to correct for observable degradation. Our main focus is the restoration of triple-differential particle distributions in heavy-ion collisions. We demonstrate that these could be extracted from collision measurements following the Richardson-Lucy deblurring method from optics. We illustrate basic features of the restoration methodology in a schematic model assuming either ideal or more realistic particle detection. Here, the inferred three-dimensional (3D) distributions for collisions may be easier to interpret in terms of collision dynamics and sought properties of bulk matter than the currently employed Fourier coefficients, that combine information from different azimuthal angles relative to the reaction plane.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Informational approach to cosmological parameter estimation

Here, we introduce a new approach for cosmological parameter estimation based on the information-theoretical Jensen-Shannon divergence ($\mathscr{D}$ JS ), calculating it for models in the restricted parameter space {H 0 , w 0 , w a }, where H 0 is the value of the Hubble constant today, and w 0 and w a are dark energy parameters, with the other parameters held fixed at their best-fit values from the Planck 2018 data. As an application, we investigate the H 0 tension between the Planck temperature power spectrum data (TT) and the local astronomical data by comparing the ΛCDM model with the wCDM and the w 0 w a CDM dynamic dark energy models. We find agreement with other works using the standard Bayesian inference for parameter estimation; in addition, we show that while the $\mathscr{D}$ JS is equally minimized for both values of H 0 along the (w 0 , w a ) plane, the lines of degeneracy are different for each value of H 0 . This allows for distinguishing between the two, once the value of either w 0 or w a is known.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Electromagnetic Tomography of Radial Flow in the Quark-Gluon Plasma

We present a novel multimessenger approach to extract the effective radial flow of the quark-gluon plasma (QGP) by jointly analyzing thermal photon and dilepton spectra in heavy-ion collisions. A key feature of this method is that it circumvents the need for a directly unmeasurable reference—the photon temperature in the absence of flow—by establishing, within a calibrated model framework, a stable, approximately linear correlation with the dilepton-inferred temperature. This construction defines an experimentally constructible quantity, 𝑣$^{eff}_{𝑟}$, which reflects early-time collectivity and exhibits a strong correlation with the spacetime-averaged radial velocity of the QGP. Together with previous results linking dilepton slopes to the initial QGP temperature, our work establishes a consistent framework for electromagnetic tomography of the QGP. Here, our framework quantifies the experimental precision target, thereby providing a concrete road map for future measurements at RHIC and the LHC and opening a new avenue to probe the early-time dynamics of hot QCD matter.

Collective flow↗

DOE OSTI2025

Precision beam diagnostics at the NuMI facility using muon monitor observations

The Neutrinos at the Main Injector (NuMI) facility at Fermilab delivers an intense neutrino beam for multiple experiments by producing pions that decay into neutrinos, muons, and other particles. Magnetic horns—the primary pion focusing elements in the NuMI beamline—exhibit predominantly linear optics, enabling a predictable relationship between the proton beam and the resulting pion and muon phase spaces. This study has two primary objectives: first, to evaluate and confirm the linearity of the horn focusing mechanism using analytical models and numerical simulations; and second, to demonstrate that key beam parameters—such as proton beam intensity, beam position on target, and horn current—can be extracted from muon monitor observations within this linear optics framework. Using a machine learning model trained on spill-by-spill muon monitor data, we infer the horn current with a precision of ±0.05%, the beam intensity with ±0.1%, and the beam position on target with ±0.018⁢ mm horizontally and ±0.013⁢ mm vertically. This approach provides a reliable cross-check of beam parameters, helping to reduce systematic uncertainties that are critical for future experiments such as the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment, which will rely on the neutrino beam produced by the Long-Baseline Neutrino Facility.

Beam control↗

DOE OSTI2020

Geometric Scale-up Experiments on Fluidization of Geldart B Glass Beads

The objective of this work is to provide a valuable database from controlled experiments for validating computational models. Recently, coarse-grained techniques such as particle-in-cell (PIC) or coarse-grained discrete element modeling (DEM) have gained popularity due to their computational efficiency while modeling large-scale systems; however, the influence of model parameters and their sensitivities at different geometric scales and flow conditions remain to be analyzed. These datasets are critical for the multiphase flow research community to assess predictive capability of modeling techniques as well as elucidate the hydrodynamic behavior in these systems. This study performed fluidization experiments using three different test sections with internal diameters of 2.5, 4, and 6 in. The operating conditions, bed material, and range of flow velocities at the inlet were constant in all the units, which were not hydrodynamically scaled. Glass beads having a Sauter Mean Diameter of 332 μm were used. Superficial velocity was varied from 2.97 to 5.35 times the minimum fluidization velocity and the initial static bed height was 0.1524 m. The order in which the experiments were performed was randomized and replicates were included to provide uncertainty in measurements. Statistics of differential pressure and bed height from these tests were reported. Future plans include validating PIC methodology in the open-source software, MFiX (Multiphase Flow with Interphase Exchanges) using results from this study. This could further be extended to determine optimal model parameters using inverse techniques such as deterministic calibration or Bayesian inference.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Geometric Scale-up Experiments on Fluidization of Geldart B Glass Beads

The objective of this work is to provide a valuable database from controlled experiments for validating computational models. Recently, coarse-grained techniques such as particle-in-cell (PIC) or coarse-grained discrete element modeling (DEM) have gained popularity due to their computational efficiency while modeling large-scale systems; however, the influence of model parameters and their sensitivities at different geometric scales and flow conditions remain to be analyzed. These datasets are critical for the multiphase flow research community to assess predictive capability of modeling techniques as well as elucidate the hydrodynamic behavior in these systems. This study performed fluidization experiments using three different test sections with internal diameters of 2.5, 4, and 6 in. The operating conditions, bed material, and range of flow velocities at the inlet were constant in all the units, which were not hydrodynamically scaled. Glass beads having a Sauter Mean Diameter of 332 μm were used. Superficial velocity was varied from 2.97 to 5.35 times the minimum fluidization velocity and the initial static bed height was 0.1524 m. The order in which the experiments were performed was randomized and replicates were included to provide uncertainty in measurements. Statistics of differential pressure and bed height from these tests were reported. Future plans include validating PIC methodology in the open-source software, MFiX (Multiphase Flow with Interphase Exchanges) using results from this study. This could further be extended to determine optimal model parameters using inverse techniques such as deterministic calibration or Bayesian inference.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Neural Density Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification for ChemCam Spectra [Slides]

The ChemCam instrument of Curiosity uses laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS). It fires a laser at target and vaporizes rock surfaces, creating a plasma. Three spectrographs divide the plasma light into wavelengths for chemical analysis: ultraviolet, violet, and visible near-infrared. Regression methods (SVR, PCR, CNN) have been employed for calibration (prediction of the elemental composition of samples); however, labeled ChemCam samples are limited. Here, we focus on unsupervised learning and employ generative models from ChemCam analysis. Further, we use labels (supervised) in combination to the generative model to compute uncertainties related to predictions. We report generative modeling can be successfully applied to model real-world data. Normalizing flow models can be efficiently constructed on latent spaces for fast downstream inference. Unsupervised and supervised learning can be combined to form an uncertainty quantification framework.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2018

Hierarchical Model for Bayesian Hypothesis Testing

A common problem in data analysis is testing a point hypothesis. For example, one might test whether or not the mean of a distribution is zero. We describe the standard Bayesian approach, which requires the choice of a width parameter to define a prior distribution for an alternative hypothesis. Standard practice is to choose this width parameter to be the least favorable choice for the original, point hypothesis. This approach, however, is ad-hoc and not informed by the data. We examine this practice in more detail than in previous work by constructing a hierarchical model, where the width parameter is an unknown value subject to inference. This yields a marginal posterior distribution for the width parameter. We then show that using the median of this marginal posterior distribution as the width parameter in the Bayesian comparison between the hypotheses gives results which are very similar to those obtained from the existing approaches. This gives a more rigorous and data-informed justification for the standard practice of choosing a width parameter which is least favorable to the point hypothesis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Longitudinal Phase Space Tomography for the Booster Synchrotron

Efforts in the study of the longitudinal behavior of charged particles in the Fermilab Booster can be catalyzed with an image of the two-dimensional phase space distribution. In the past, tomography has been extensively employed in the reconstruction of the phase space in accelerators such as the Recycler at Fermilab and the Proton Synchrotron Booster at CERN. However, such a capability had yet to realize for the Fermilab Booster synchrotron. In this work, the first successful tomographic phase space reconstruction of a low-energy Booster bunch is presented along with validation metrics. A numerical turn-by-turn model of the longitudinal particle dynamics in the Booster has been implemented, which utilizes a fast, map-based particle transport algorithm. Using a sinogram generated from the Wall Current Monitor, the iterative reconstruction algorithm recovers a discretized image of the original phase space distribution at variable resolution. The reconstruction result shows low root-mean-square error and a rapid convergence toward the solution, providing strong evidence of accuracy. Future and ongoing work includes modeling high-energy bunches above transition and using tomography to infer certain machine parameters such as synchronous phase, peak gap voltage, and synchronous energy in addition to the phase space distribution.

Ebeid, Safi [Unlisted]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Longitudinal Phase Space Tomography for the Booster Synchrotron (Abstract Only)

Efforts in the study of the longitudinal behavior of charged particles in the Fermilab Booster can be catalyzed with an image of the two-dimensional phase space distribution. In the past, tomography has been extensively employed in the reconstruction of the phase space in accelerators such as the Recycler at Fermilab and the Proton Synchrotron Booster at CERN. However, such a capability had yet to realize for the Fermilab Booster synchrotron. In this work, the first successful tomographic phase space reconstruction of a low-energy Booster bunch is presented along with validation metrics. A numerical turn-by-turn model of the longitudinal particle dynamics in the Booster has been implemented, which utilizes a fast, map-based particle transport algorithm. Using a sinogram generated from the Wall Current Monitor, the iterative reconstruction algorithm recovers a discretized image of the original phase space distribution at variable resolution. The reconstruction result shows low root-mean-square error and a rapid convergence toward the solution, providing strong evidence of accuracy. Future and ongoing work includes modeling high-energy bunches above transition and using tomography to infer certain machine parameters such as synchronous phase, peak gap voltage, and synchronous energy in addition to the phase space distribution.

Ebeid, Safi [Unlisted, US]↗

DOE OSTI2017

A Radio Astronomy Search for Cold Dark Matter Axions

The search for axions has gained ground in recent years, with laboratory searches for cold dark matter (CDM) axions, relativistic solar axions, and ultra-light axions as the subject of extensive literature. In particular, the interest in axions as CDM candidates has been motivated by their potential to account for all of the inferred values of Ω{sub DM}∼0.26 in the standard ΛCDM model. Indeed, the value of Ω{sub DM}∼0.26 could be provided by a light axion. We investigate the possibility of complementing existing axion search experiments with radio telescope observations in an attempt to detect axion conversion in astrophysical magnetic fields. Searching for a CDM axion signal from a large-scale astrophysical environment provides new challenges, with the magnetic field structure playing a crucial role in both the rate of interaction and the properties of the observed photon. However, with a predicted frequency in the radio band (200 MHz–200 GHz) and a distinguishable spectral profile, next-generation radio telescopes may offer new opportunities for detection. The SKA-mid telescope has a planned frequency range of 0.4–13.8 GHz with optimal sensitivity in the range of ∼2–7 GHz. Considering observations at ∼500 MHz, the limiting sensitivity is expected to be ∼0.04 mK based on a 24 hr integration time. This compares with a predicted CDM axion all-sky signal temperature of ∼0.04 mK using SKA Phase 1 telescopes and up to ∼1.17 mK using a collecting area of (1 km){sup 2} as planned for Phase 2.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

In-Situ TEM Molten Salt Corrosion

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) offer a compelling pathway for next-generation nuclear energy, with advantages in thermal efficiency, inherent safety, and flexible fuel management. Yet, halide-based molten salts introduce significant materials challenges, particularly alloy corrosion. Alloy performance in these environments ultimately depends on understanding how corrosion initiates and progresses at the nanoscale, however most existing models rely on post-exposure characterization, leaving degradation mechanisms largely inferred rather than directly observed. NiCr alloys have garnered interest in MSRs applications as the Ni-based matrix provides strength and creep resistance, while Cr content offers oxidation resistance in air. However, NiCr corrosion resistance in chloride salts has proven poor due to preferential chromium dissolution, the formation of Cr-depleted pathways, and grain-boundary attack. This work aims to directly visualize corrosion of Ni-20Cr exposed to LiCl-KCl using in-situ Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM) to capture real-time microstructural evolution during corrosion. Experiments will be performed at ~800 °C under controlled pressure conditions while utilizing Energy-Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (EDS) to analyze elemental redistribution. Observation of chromium depletion fronts, associated surface restructuring, and localized chloride enrichment are expected. Ultimately, this study is expected to provide a link between microscale processes and the macroscopic degradation behaviors relevant to MSR operation in advanced reactor environments. Simultaneously, this approach enables future in-situ investigations regarding alloy composition, salt chemistry, and their influence on corrosion pathways and long-term stability.?

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Longitudinal Phase Space Tomography for the Booster Synchrotron

Efforts in the study of the longitudinal behavior of charged particles in the Fermilab Booster can be catalyzed with an image of the two-dimensional phase space distribution. In the past, tomography had been employed in the reconstruction of the phase space in accelerators such as the Recycler at Fermilab and the Proton Synchrotron Booster at CERN. However, such a capability had yet to realize for the Fermilab Booster synchrotron. In this work, the first successful tomographic phase space reconstruction of a low-energy Booster bunch is presented along with validation metrics. A numerical turn-by-turn model of the longitudinal particle dynamics in the Booster has been implemented, which utilizes a fast, map-based particle transport algorithm. Using a sinogram generated from the Wall Current Monitor signal, the iterative reconstruction algorithm recovers a discretized image of the original phase space distribution at variable resolution. The reconstruction result shows low root-mean-square error and a rapid convergence toward the solution, providing strong evidence of accuracy. Future and ongoing work includes modeling high-energy bunches above transition and using tomography to infer certain machine parameters such as synchronous phase, peak gap voltage, and synchronous energy in addition to the phase space distribution.

Ebeid, Safi [Unlisted; Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2023

Direct Bayesian inference for fault severity assessment in Digital-Twin-Based fault diagnosis

For applications in condition-based maintenance of nuclear systems, the assessment of fault severity is crucial. In this work, we developed a framework that allows for direct inference of the probability distributions of possible faults in a system. Here, we employed a model-based approach with model residuals generated from analytical redundancy relations provided by physics-based models of the system components. From real-time sensor readings, the values of the model residuals can be calculated, and the posterior probability distributions of the faults can be computed directly using the methods of Bayesian networks. From the posterior distribution of each fault, one can estimate the fault probability based on a chosen threshold and assess the severity of the fault. By eliminating the discretization and simplifications in middle steps, this approach allows us to leverage the available computational resources to provide more accurate fault probability estimates and severity assessments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

O3BNN: An Out-Of-Order Architecture for High-Performance Binarized Neural Network Inference with Fine-Grained Pruning

In this work, we demonstrate that the highly-condensed BNN model can be shrunk significantly further by dynamically pruning irregular redundant edges. Based on two new observations on BNN-specific properties, our out-of-order (OoO) architecture – O3BNN, can curtail remaining edge evaluation in cases where the binary output of a neuron can be determined early. Similar to Instruction-Level-Parallelism (ILP), these fine-grained, irregular, runtime pruning opportunities are traditionally presumed to be di cult to exploit. We evaluate our design on an FPGA platform using three well-known networks, including VggNet-16, AlexNet for ImageNet, and a VGG-like network for Cifar-10. Results show that our out-of-order approach can prune 27%, 16%, and 42% of the operations for the three networks respectively, without any accuracy loss, leading to at least 1.7×, 1.5×, and 2.1× speedups over state-of-the-art implementations on FPGA/GPU/CPU BNN implementations. Our approach is inference runtime pruning, so no retrain or fine-tuning is needed. We demonstrate our design on an FPGA platform. However, this is only for showcasing the method; the approach does not rely on any FPGA-specific features and can thus be adopted by other devices as well.

Geng, Tong↗