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At least 1,423 records · Page 79

Search for gauge-mediated supersymmetry in events with at least one photon and missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at s = 13 TeV

A search for gauge-mediated supersymmetry (SUSY) in final states with photons and large missing transverse momentum is presented. The data sample of pp collisions at $\sqrt{s} = $ 13 TeV was collected with the CMS detector at the CERN LHC and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 35.9 fb$^{-1}$. Data are compared with models in which the lightest neutralino has bino- or wino-like components, resulting in decays to photons and gravitinos, where the gravitinos escape detection. The event selection is optimized for both electroweak (EWK) and strong production SUSY scenarios. The observed data are consistent with standard model predictions, and limits are set in the context of a general gauge mediation model in which gaugino masses up to 980 GeV are excluded at 95% confidence level. Gaugino masses below 780 and 950 GeV are excluded in two simplified models with EWK production of mass-degenerate charginos and neutralinos. Stringent limits are set on simplified models based on gluino and squark pair production, excluding gluino (squark) masses up to 2100 (1750) GeV depending on the assumptions made for the decay modes and intermediate particle masses. This analysis sets the highest mass limits to date in the studied EWK models, and in the considered strong production models when the mass difference between the gauginos and the squarks or gluinos is small.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Data-driven recovery of hidden physics in reduced order modeling of fluid flows

In this article, we introduce a modular hybrid analysis and modeling (HAM) approach to account for hidden physics in reduced order modeling (ROM) of parameterized systems relevant to fluid dynamics. The hybrid ROM framework is based on using first principles to model the known physics in conjunction with utilizing the data-driven machine learning tools to model the remaining residual that is hidden in data. This framework employs proper orthogonal decomposition as a compression tool to construct orthonormal bases and Galerkin projection (GP) as a model to build the dynamical core of the system. Our proposed methodology hence compensates structural or epistemic uncertainties in models and utilizes the observed data snapshots to compute true modal coefficients spanned by these bases. The GP model is then corrected at every time step with a data-driven rectification using a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network architecture to incorporate hidden physics. A Grassmannian manifold approach is also adopted for interpolating basis functions to unseen parametric conditions. The control parameter governing the system's behavior is thus implicitly considered through true modal coefficients as input features to the LSTM network. The effectiveness of the HAM approach is then discussed through illustrative examples that are generated synthetically to take hidden physics into account. Furthermore, our approach thus provides insights addressing a fundamental limitation of the physics-based models when the governing equations are incomplete to represent underlying physical processes.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Plasma heating in solar flares and their soft and hard X-ray emissions

In this paper, the energy budgets of two single-loop-like flares observed in X-ray are analyzed under the assumption that nonthermal electrons (NTEs) are the only source of plasma heating during all phases of both events. The flares were observed by RHESSI and GOES on 2002 February 20 and June 2, respectively. Using a one-dimensional (1D) hydrodynamic code for both flares, the energy deposited in the chromosphere was derived applying RHESSI observational data. The use of the Fokker-Planck formalism permits the calculation of distributions of the NTEs in flaring loops and thus spatial distributions of the X-ray nonthermal emissions and integral fluxes for the selected energy ranges that were compared with the observed ones. Additionally, a comparative analysis of the spatial distributions of the signals in the RHESSI images was conducted for the footpoints and for all the flare loops in selected energy ranges with these quantities' fluxes obtained from the models. The best compatibility of the model and observations was obtained for the 2002 June 2 event in the 0.5-4 Å GOES range and total fluxes in the 6-12 keV, 12-25 keV, 20-25 keV, and 50-100 keV energy bands. Results of photometry of the individual flaring structures in a high energy range show that the best compliance occurred for the 2002 June 2 flare, where the synthesized emissions were at least 30% higher than the observed emissions. For the 2002 February 20 flare, synthesized emission is about four times lower than the observed one. However, in the low energy range the best conformity was obtained for the 2002 February 20 flare, where emission from the model is about 11% lower than the observed one. The larger inconsistency occurs for the 2002 June 2 solar flare, where synthesized emission is about 12 times greater or even more than the observed emission. Some part of these differences may be caused by inevitable flaws of the applied methodology, like by an assumption that the model of the flare is symmetric and there are no differences in the emissions originating from the feet of the flares loop and by relative simplicity of the applied numerical 1D code and procedures. No doubt a significant refinement of the applied numerical models and more sophisticated implementation of the various physical mechanisms involved are required to achieve a better agreement. Despite these problems, a collation of modeled results with observations shows that soft and hard X-ray emissions observed for analyzed single-loop-like events may be fully explained by electron-beam-driven evaporation only.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Effects of Vegetation and Topography on the Boundary Layer Structure above the Amazon Forest

Observational data from two field campaigns in the Amazon forest were used to study the vertical structure of turbulence above the forest. The analysis was performed using the reduced turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) budget and its associated two-dimensional phase space. Results revealed the existence of two regions within the roughness sublayer in which the TKE budget cannot be explained by the canonical flat-terrain TKE budgets in the canopy roughness sublayer or in the lower portion of the convective ABL. Data analysis also suggested that deviations from horizontal homogeneity have a large contribution to the TKE budget. Results from LES of a model canopy over idealized topography presented similar features, leading to the conclusion that flow distortions caused by topography are responsible for the observed features in the TKE budget. These results support the conclusion that the boundary layer above the Amazon forest is strongly impacted by the gentle topography underneath.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improved methodologies for Earth system modelling of atmospheric soluble iron and observation comparisons using the Mechanism of Intermediate complexity for Modelling Iron (MIMI v1.0)

Abstract. Herein, we present a description of the Mechanism of Intermediate complexity for Modelling Iron (MIMI v1.0). This iron processing module was developed for use within Earth system models and has been updated within a modal aerosol framework from the original implementation in a bulk aerosol model. MIMI simulates the emission and atmospheric processing of two main sources of iron in aerosol prior to deposition: mineral dust and combustion processes. Atmospheric dissolution of insoluble to soluble iron is parameterized by an acidic interstitial aerosol reaction and a separate in-cloud aerosol reaction scheme based on observations of enhanced aerosol iron solubility in the presence of oxalate. Updates include a more comprehensive treatment of combustion iron emissions, improvements to the iron dissolution scheme, and an improved physical dust mobilization scheme. An extensive dataset consisting predominantly of cruise-based observations was compiled to compare to the model. The annual mean modelled concentration of surface-level total iron compared well with observations but less so in the soluble fraction (iron solubility) for which observations are much more variable in space and time. Comparing model and observational data is sensitive to the definition of the average as well as the temporal and spatial range over which it is calculated. Through statistical analysis and examples, we show that a median or log-normal distribution is preferred when comparing with soluble iron observations. The iron solubility calculated at each model time step versus that calculated based on a ratio of the monthly mean values, which is routinely presented in aerosol studies and used in ocean biogeochemistry models, is on average globally one-third (34 %) higher. We redefined ocean deposition regions based on dominant iron emission sources and found that the daily variability in soluble iron simulated by MIMI was larger than that of previous model simulations. MIMI simulated a general increase in soluble iron deposition to Southern Hemisphere oceans by a factor of 2 to 4 compared with the previous version, which has implications for our understanding of the ocean biogeochemistry of these predominantly iron-limited ocean regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

VLBI determination of synchronous equatorial satellite orbits.

A first-order theory of satellite orbit determination using time-difference data is developed for the case of a synchronous, equatorial spacecraft. Also, a first order error analysis is presented that permits one to estimate how errors in assumed or measured quantities affect the values of the derived orbital parameters. The theory is applied to observational data obtained during a series of VLBI (Very-Long-Baseline Interferometry) experiments conducted between stations at Rosman, North Carolina, and Mojave, California, using the ATS-3 satellite as a radio source. Orbit parameters derived from the VLBI data show good agreement with those determined by the ATS project office using more conventional tracking techniques.

Ross, S.↗

Remote Sensing of Earth Terrain

Theoretical models that are useful and practical in relating remote sensing data to the important physical parameters characterizing Earth terrain are developed. The development of models that are useful in data analysis and interpretation, scene simulation, and developing new remote sensing approaches and techniques is discussed. Numerous theoretical models that are applicable to the active and passive remote sensing of plowed fields, atmospheric precipitation, vegetation, and snow fields were developed. The radiative transfer theory is used to interpret the active and passive data as a function of rain rate. Both the random medium model and the discrete scatterer model is used to study the remote sensing of vegetation fields. Due to the non-spherical geometry of the scatterers there is strong azimuthal dependence in the observed data. Thus, the anisotropic random medium model and the discrete scatterer model with nonspherical particles was developed. In order to relate the remote sensing data to the actual physical parameters, the scattering of electromagnetic waves from randomly distributed dielectric scatterers was studied. Both the rigorous random discrete scatterer theory and the strong fluctuation theory are used to derive the backscattering cross section in terms of the actual physical parameters and the results agree well with the data obtained from the snow fields.

Kong, J. A.↗

Seismology and space-based geodesy

The potential of space-based geodetic measurement of crustal deformation in the context of seismology is explored. The achievements of seismological source theory and data analyses, mechanical modeling of fault zone behavior, and advances in space-based geodesy are reviewed, with emphasis on realizable contributions of space-based geodetic measurements specifically to seismology. The fundamental relationships between crustal deformation associated with an earthquake and the geodetically observable data are summarized. The response and spatial and temporal resolution of the geodetic data necessary to understand deformation at various phases of the earthquake cycle is stressed. The use of VLBI, SLR, and GPS measurements for studying global geodynamics properties that can be investigated to some extent with seismic data is discussed. The potential contributions of continuously operating strain monitoring networks and globally distributed geodetic observatories to existing worldwide modern digital seismographic networks are evaluated in reference to mutually addressable problems in seismology, geophysics, and tectonics.

Tralli, David M.↗

Observational Assessment of Metocean Conditions in the WFIP3 Region

The WFIP3 project, sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, is aimed at improving our understanding of the physics of the atmosphere and ocean that dictate the structure and variability of the wind resource within the MABL. As part of the project, a long-term offshore field campaign will take place along the U.S. East Coast to provide an unprecedented characterization of the MABL in the vicinity of the Massachusetts/Rhode Island wind energy lease areas. The unprecedented observational data set collected in the WFIP3 field campaign will allow intensive numerical modeling development and validation efforts. To inform the field campaign design and the preliminary studies associated with it, here we perform a characterization of the MABL and ocean conditions by leveraging available observations in the region.

lidars↗

Collaborative Research: A Model of Partially Ionized Plasma Flows with Kinetic Treatment of Neutral Atoms and Nonthermal Ions

Interactions of flows of partially ionized, magnetized plasma are frequently accompanied by the presence of both thermal and non-thermal (pickup) ion components. Such interactions cannot be modeled using traditional MHD equations and require more advanced approaches to treat them. If a nonthermal component of ions is formed due to charge exchange and collisions between the thermal (core) ions and neutrals, it experiences the action of magnetic field, its distribution function is isotropized, and it soon acquires the velocity of the ambient plasma without being thermodynamically equilibrated. This situation, e. g., takes place in the outer heliosphere –- the part of interstellar space beyond the solar system whose properties are determined by the solar wind interaction with the local interstellar medium. This is also possible in laboratory, at million degrees and above, when plasma is conducting electricity far too well, which makes Ohmic heating ineffective. To attain the target temperatures one needs additional heating eventually playing a dominant role. Among such sources is a so-called neutral particle beam heating. This is a wide-spread technique (Joint European Torus and International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor experiments) based on the injection of powerful beams of neutral atoms into ohmically preheated plasma. In this project we have investigated the energy and density separation between the thermal and nonthermal components in the solar wind and interstellar plasmas. A new model has been developed in which we solve the ideal MHD equations for mixture of all ions and the kinetic Boltzmann equation to describe the transport of neutral atoms. As a separate capability, we can treat the flow of neutral atoms in a multi-component fashion, where neutral atoms born in each thermodynamically distinct region are governed by the Euler gas dynamic equations. We also describe the behavior of pickup ions either kinetically, using the Fokker--Planck equation, or as a separate fluid. Our numerical simulations have demonstrated that pickup ions play a major role in the interaction of the solar wind and (partially ionized) interstellar medium plasmas. Our teams have investigated the stability of the surface (the heliopause) that separates the solar wind from the local interstellar medium, the transport of galactic cosmic rays, the properties of the heliotail flow, and modifications to the bow wave in front of the heliopause due to charge exchange between the neutral H atoms born in the solar wind and interstellar ions. Modeling results have been validated against observational data, such as obtained by the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX), and made it possible to shed light on the structure of energetic neutral atom maps created by this spacecraft.. We have also demonstrated that charge-exchange modulated heliosphere is a source of anisotropy of the multi-TeV cosmic ray flux observed in a number of Earth-bound air shower experiments. Newly developed codes are implemented within a Multi-Scale Fluid-Kinetic Simulation Suite (MS-FLUKSS), a publicly available code being developed by our team for over 12 years. MS-FLUKSS scales well up to 160,000 computing cores and has been ported on major supercomputers in the country. Efficient parallelization and data choreography in the continuum simulation modules are provided by Chombo, an adaptive mesh refinement framework managed by Phillip Colella's team at LBNL. We have implemented in-house, hybrid (MPI+OpenMP) parallelization of the kinetic modules that solve the Boltzmann equation with a Monte Carlo method. Currently, the kinetic modules are being rewritten to take advantage of the modern CPU-GPU supercomputer architecture. The scope of the project allowed us to enhance plasma research and education in such broad, multidisciplinary field as physics of partially ionized plasma and its application to space physics and fusion science. Besides the impact on the modeling of complex physical systems, our approach to computational resource management for complex codes utilizing multiple algorithm technologies appears to be a major advance on current approaches. The development of sophisticated resource management will be essential for all future modeling efforts that incorporate a diversity of scales and physical processes. Our effort provided leadership in promoting computational science and plasma physics within the UAH and FIT campuses and, through the training of a broad spectrum of scientists and engineers, fostering new technologies across the country.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Collaborative Research: A Model of Partially Ionized Plasma Flows with Kinetic Treatment of Neutral Atoms and Nonthermal Ions

Interactions of flows of partially ionized, magnetized plasma are frequently accompanied by the presence of both thermal and non-thermal (pickup) ion components. Such interactions cannot be modeled using traditional MHD equations and require more advanced approaches to treat them. If a nonthermal component of ions is formed due to charge exchange and collisions between the thermal (core) ions and neutrals, it experiences the action of magnetic field, its distribution function is isotropized, and it soon acquires the velocity of the ambient plasma without being thermodynamically equilibrated. This situation, e. g., takes place in the outer heliosphere - the part of interstellar space beyond the solar system whose properties are determined by the solar wind interaction with the local interstellar medium. This is also possible in laboratory, at million degrees and above, when plasma is conducting electricity far too well, which makes Ohmic heating ineffective. To attain the target temperatures one needs additional heating eventually playing a dominant role. Among such sources is a so-called neutral particle beam heating. This is a wide-spread technique (Joint European Torus and International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor experiments) based on the injection of powerful beams of neutral atoms into ohmically preheated plasma. In this project we have investigated the energy and density separation between the thermal and nonthermal components in the solar wind and interstellar plasmas. A new model has been developed in which we solve the ideal MHD equations for mixture of all ions and the kinetic Boltzmann equation to describe the transport of neutral atoms. As a separate capability, we can treat the flow of neutral atoms in a multi-component fashion, where neutral atoms born in each thermodynamically distinct regions are governed by the Euler gas dynamic equations. We also describe the behavior of pickup ions either kinetically, using the Fokker–Planck equation, or as a separate fluid. Our numerical simulations have demonstrated that pickup ions play a major role in the interaction of the solar wind and (partially ionized) interstellar medium plasmas. Our teams have investigated the stability of the surface (the heliopause) that separates the solar wind from the local interstellar medium, the transport of galactic cosmic rays, the properties of the heliotail flow, and modifications to the bow wave in front of the heliopause due to charge exchange between the neutral H atoms born in the solar wind and interstellar ions. Modeling results have been validated against observational data, such as obtained by the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX), and made it possible to shed light on the structure of energetic neutral atom maps created by this spacecraft.. We have also demonstrated that charge-exchange modulated heliosphere is a source of anisotropy of the multi-TeV cosmic ray flux observed in a number of Earth-bound air shower experiments. Newly developed codes are implemented within a Multi-Scale Fluid-Kinetic Simulation Suite (MS-FLUKSS), a publicly available code being developed by our team for over 12 years. MS-FLUKSS scales well up to 160,000 computing cores and has been ported on major supercomputers in the country. Efficient parallelization and data choreography in the continuum simulation modules are provided by Chombo, an adaptive mesh refinement framework managed by Phillip Colella’s team at LBNL. We have implemented in-house, hybrid (MPI+OpenMP) parallelization of the kinetic modules that solve the Boltzmann equation with a Monte Carlo method. Currently, the kinetic modules are being rewritten to take advantage of the modern CPU-GPU supercomputer architecture. The scope of the project allowed us to enhance plasma research and education in such broad, multidis- ciplinary field as physics of partially ionized plasma and its application to space physics and fusion science. Besides the impact on the modeling of complex physical systems, our approach to computational resource management for complex codes utilizing multiple algorithm technologies appears to be a major advance on current approaches. The development of sophisticated resource management will be essential for all future modeling efforts that incorporate a diversity of scales and physical processes. Our effort provided leadership in promoting computational science and plasma physics within the UAH and FIT campuses and, through the training of a broad spectrum of scientists and engineers, foster new technologies across the country.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

COLD MOLECULAR GAS IN MERGER REMNANTS. I. FORMATION OF MOLECULAR GAS DISKS

We present the ≲1 kpc resolution {sup 12}CO imaging study of 37 optically selected local merger remnants using new and archival interferometric maps obtained with ALMA, CARMA, the Submillimeter Array, and the Plateau de Bure Interferometer. We supplement a sub-sample with single-dish measurements obtained at the Nobeyama Radio Observatory 45 m telescope for estimating the molecular gas mass (10{sup 7} {sup –} {sup 11} M {sub ☉}) and evaluating the missing flux of the interferometric measurements. Among the sources with robust CO detections, we find that 80% (24/30) of the sample show kinematical signatures of rotating molecular gas disks (including nuclear rings) in their velocity fields, and the sizes of these disks vary significantly from 1.1 kpc to 9.3 kpc. The size of the molecular gas disks in 54% of the sources is more compact than the K-band effective radius. These small gas disks may have formed from a past gas inflow that was triggered by a dynamical instability during a potential merging event. On the other hand, the rest (46%) of the sources have gas disks that are extended relative to the stellar component, possibly forming a late-type galaxy with a central stellar bulge. Our new compilation of observational data suggests that nuclear and extended molecular gas disks are common in the final stages of mergers. This finding is consistent with recent major-merger simulations of gas-rich progenitor disks. Finally, we suggest that some of the rotation-supported turbulent disks observed at high redshifts may result from galaxies that have experienced a recent major merger.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluation of historical precipitation interannual variability in CMIP6 over the United States

Interannual precipitation variability profoundly influences society via its effects on agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, and disaster risks. In this study, we use daily in situ precipitation observations from the global historical climatology network-daily (GHCN-D) to assess the ability of 21 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, including the 50-member fifth-generation Canadian Earth System Model single model initial-condition large ensemble (CanESM5_SMILE), to realistically simulate historical interannual precipitation variability trends within 17 regions of the contiguous United States (CONUS). We assess how accurately the CMIP6 simulations align with observational data across annual, summer, and winter periods, focusing on four key hydrometeorological metrics, including interannual precipitation variability, relative interannual precipitation variability (coefficient of variation), annual mean precipitation, and annual wet day frequency. Our findings reveal that CMIP6 ensemble members generally reproduce the spatial patterns of observed trends in annual mean precipitation. In most regions, models agree well with the signs of observed changes in annual mean precipitation, though discrepancies in trend magnitude are evident. Further, observed trends in winter mean precipitation broadly exhibit a spatial pattern similar to that of the observed annual mean. However, analysis of the CanESM5_SMILE shows that trends in precipitation variability may primarily be the result of model-simulated internal variability, suggesting caution in interpreting multi-model single-realization ensemble results. Challenges in accurately simulating interannual precipitation variability underscore the need for ongoing model refinement and validation to enhance climate projections, especially in regions vulnerable to extreme precipitation events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of Fire-Induced Circulations during the FireFlux2 Experiment

Despite recent advances in both coupled fire modeling and measurement techniques to sample the fire environment, the fire–atmosphere coupling mechanisms that lead to fast propagating wildfires remain poorly understood. This knowledge gap adversely affects fire management when wildland fires propagate unexpectedly rapidly and shift direction due to the fire impacts on local wind conditions. In this work, we utilized observational data from the FireFlux2 prescribed burn and numerical simulations performed with a coupled fire–atmosphere model WRF-SFIRE to assess the small-scale impacts of fire on local micrometeorology under moderate wind conditions (10–12 m/s). The FireFlux2 prescribed burn provided a comprehensive observational dataset with in situ meteorological observations as well as IR measurements of fire progression. To directly quantify the effects of fire–atmosphere interactions, two WRF-SFIRE simulations were executed. One simulation was run in a two-way coupled mode in which the heat and moisture fluxes emitted from the fire were injected into the atmosphere, and the other simulation was performed in a one-way coupled mode for which the atmosphere was not affected by the fire. The difference between these two simulations was used to analyze and quantify the fire impacts on the atmospheric circulation at different sections of the fire front. The fire-released heat fluxes resulted in vertical velocities as high as 10.8 m/s at the highest measurement level (20 m above ground level) gradually diminishing with height and dropping to 7.9 m/s at 5.77 m. The fire-induced horizontal winds indicated the strongest fire-induced flow at the lowest measurement levels (as high as 3.3 m/s) gradually decreasing to less than 1 m/s at 20 m above ground level. The analysis of the simulated flow indicates significant differences between the fire-induced circulation at the fire head and on the flanks. The fire-induced circulation was much stronger near the fire head than at the flanks, where the fire did not produce particularly strong cross-fire flow and did not significantly change the lateral fire progression. However, at the head of the fire the fire-induced winds blowing across the front were the strongest and significantly accelerated fire progression. The two-way coupled simulation including the fire-induced winds produced 36.2% faster fire propagation than the one-way coupled run, and more realistically represented the fire progression.

Benik, Jeremy T.↗

Role of gas-surface interactions in the reduction of OGO 6 neutral-particle mass spectrometer data

Data obtained with the quadrupole mass spectrometer aboard the OGO 6 satellite show the effects of significant surface interaction processes, including nearly complete recombination of incoming atomic oxygen on the walls of the instrument antechamber plus absorption and desorption of oxygen and carbon monoxide. The observed data are fit by solving the time-dependent continuity equations accounting for production and loss of atomic oxygen, molecular oxygen, and (in the case of mass 28) carbon monoxide. The surface parameters that best fit the data are selected and applied to the determination of ambient densities and their estimated errors.

Hedin, A. E.↗

Role of gas-surface interactions in the reduction of Ogo 6 neutral particle mass spectrometer data.

Data obtained with the quadrupole mass spectrometer aboard the Ogo 6 satellite show the effects of significant surface interaction processes, including nearly complete recombination of incoming atomic oxygen on the walls of the instrument antechamber plus adsorption and desorption of oxygen and carbon monoxide. The observed data are fit by solving the time-dependent continuity equations accounting for production and loss of atomic oxygen, molecular oxygen, and (in the case of mass 28) carbon monoxide. The surface parameters that best fit the data are selected and applied to the determination of ambient densities and their estimated errors.

Hedin, A. E.↗

Varying G

The problem of the variation of the gravitational constant with cosmological time is critically analyzed. Since Einstein's equation does not allow G to vary on any time scale, no observational data can be analyzed within the context of the standard theory. The recently proposed scale covariant theory, which allows (but does not demand) G to vary, and which has been shown to have passed several standard cosmological tests, is employed to discuss some recent nonnull observational results which indicate a time variation of G.

Canuto, V.↗

A study of frontal dynamics with application to the Australian summertime 'cool change'

The dynamics of frontal evolution is examined in terms of the Australian summertime cool change using a two-dimensional numerical model. The model is synthesized from observational data on surface cold fronts obtained during the Australian Cold Fronts Research Program, and the model develops a quasi-steady surface cold front during the 24 hours of integration. The characteristics of this model are compared with those of a kinematic model; it is observed that the features of the two models correspond. The two-dimensional and kinematic models are also compared with a 24-hour prediction of the cold front of February 1983 using the three-dimensional nested-grid model of the Australian Numerical Meteorology Research Center, developed by Gauntlett et al. (1984). Good correlation between these models is detected.

Reeder, Michael J.↗