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Co-Investigator Proposal for Enstrophy - - Filamentation of Auroral Currents

Cornell University provided three instruments for the Enstrophy experiment: an electric field meter, a plasma wave receiver, and a magnetometer for measuring FAC. The electric field meter consisted of a 6 m Weitzmann boom system with analog signal processing and 12 bit ADC, which yielded one electric field component instantaneously and a two dimensional electric field every half spin. The plasma wave receiver used the same sensing system with the addition of pre-amplifiers in the spheres to sense plasma waves up to and including the electron Langmuir frequency. Signal processing employed a variety of continuous and snap shot techniques depending on the frequency range and band width. The science magnetometer provided by Cornell University was a Billingsly design fluxgate previously used on spacecraft missions but without radiation hardening. The magnetometer was mounted on a one meter, stiff aluminum "flop-down" boom. The Enstrophy payload was launched on february 11, 1999. Because of a design flaw in the event timers, the magnetometer boom was deployed before the payload despun. As a result the magnetometer separated mechanically from the boom but maintained electrical connection. This was confirmed by the calculation of the scalar magnetic field from all three vector components of the magnetic field. However, the individual vector values had no scientific value. The electric field and plasma wave instrumentation worked as designed. The data from these instruments was provided to the University of New Hampshire and to the Principal Investigator, as proposed.

Kintner, Paul M.↗

An Autonomy Architecture for Aerobot Exploration of the Saturnian Moon Titan

The Huygens probe arrived at Saturn's moon Titan on January 14, 2005, unveiling a world that is radically different from any other in the Solar system. The data obtained, complemented by continuing observations from the Cassini spacecraft, show methane lakes, river channels and drainage basins, sand dunes, cryovolcanos and sierras. This has lead to an enormous scientific interest in a follow-up mission to Titan, using a robotic lighter-than-air vehicle (or aerobot). Aerobots have modest power requirements, can fly missions with extended durations, and have very long distance traverse capabilities. They can execute regional surveys, transport and deploy scientific instruments and in-situ laboratory facilities over vast distances, and also provide surface sampling at strategic science sites. This paper describes our progress in the development of the autonomy technologies that will be required for exploration of Titan. We provide an overview of the autonomy architecture and some of its key components. We also show results obtained from autonomous flight tests conducted in the Mojave desert.

Titan↗

NASA HRP Immunology Discipline - Use of Terrestrial Analogs

Due to the cost and operational constraints, as well as technical implementation limitations, it is desirous to perform relevant space physiology investigations first in terrestrial 'space analogs'. This is particularly true for initial investigations, which may then provide appropriate focus for subsequent flight investigations, or for mechanistic investigations that simply cannot be performed during spaceflight. Appropriate analog choice is extremely important. There are a wide variety of terrestrial space analogs, each relevant to a particular physiological discipline (or disciplines) and each with a particular fidelity (or lack thereof) to spaceflight, and each with unique operational constraints. The HRP Immunology Discipline is tasked with managing the HRP Risk concerning clinical risk for Astronaut crews related to spaceflight-associated immune dysregulation. Such dysregulation has been documented to occur during spaceflight, and found to persist for the duration of a 6-month ISS mission. Studies continue to characterize the onorbit phenomenon, but it generally consists of diminished immunocyte function, dysregulated cytokine profiles, and persistent herpesvirus reactivation. Causes are thought to synergistically include microgravity, psychological or physiological stress, radiation, and/or circadian misalignment. An appropriate terrestrial analog for immune dysregulation would replicate as many of these influences as possible. Such analogs may include clinostat or bioreactor cell culture (microgravity), hindlimb suspension (stress, fluid shifts, hypokinesis), or human deployment to remote or extreme environments (isolation, stress, circadian). Also, the laboratory setting may be used as an analog, or to augment analogs, such as sleep deprivation/misalignment or human centrifugation to replicate gravitational stress. As an appropriate example of a NASA Disciplines use of Terrestrial space analogs, this talk will discuss spaceflight associated immune dysregulation, terrestrial immune analogs, and recent analog investigations.

Crucian, Brian↗

Kinetic Inductance Detectors for Dark Matter Searches

Decades of astrophysical observations suggest that 23% of the mass energy of the universe is dark. Meanwhile, particle physics theories favor the existence of a stable and weakly interacting particle, which has yet to be detected. These realities combine to formulate a very well motivated particle dark matter candidate, which was produced in the early universe and still lingers in abundance today. The expectation of a small weak interaction cross-section enables the instrumentation of experiments designed to discover the nature of the dark matter which continues to be an overarching question of cosmology. A detector for this dark matter candidate senses energy from occasional collisions between the dark matter and atomic nuclei; the more nuclei in the detector, the greater its sensitivity to dark matter. The detectors of the Cryogenic Dark Matter Search (CDMS) measure phonons and charge emanating from recoiling germanium nuclei. Its phonon sensors, though exquisitely sensitive, are relatively complicated to fabricate and deploy. Responding to the scientific imperative to increase dark matter sensitivity, we look for a simpler phonon sensor technology. Kinetic inductance based phonon sensors (KIPS) are superconducting thin film microwave frequency resonant circuits. Phonon energy impinging on the film alters its surface impedance, which alters the characteristics of the resonance. KIPS can be made with relatively large, millimeter sized features which makes them easier to fabricate and reduces variations between detectors. This instrumentation focused thesis shows that KIPS can be used as a simple and sensitive phonon sensor for the CDMS detector. KIPS design aspects, competitiveness to the current transition edge phonon sensors, readout considerations and suggestions on how to instrument them in future dark matter experiments will be presented. The broader applicability of KIPS in nuclear non-proliferation and other physics investigations is also discussed.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Local Power Impact Experiment Design for a New Fuel Type for use in the Advanced Test Reactor

The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR), and complimentary zero-power ATR Critical (ATRC) reactor, located at Idaho National Labs (INL), are undergoing conversion from Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) to Low Enriched Uranium (LEU). Both have a variety of testing locations that can receive large variations in flux due to its unique serpentine design, consisting of five lobes (see Figure 1). Initial criticality and power distribution throughout the core are controlled by core-external outer shim control cylinders (OSCCs). Distinct test loops allow for testing at specific temperatures, pressures, and irradiation conditions. The ATR is one of the key nuclear engineering research and testing facilities within the DOE National Laboratory Complex, and the ATRC supports its operation [1]. Currently, the Office of Material Management and Minimization (M3) within the National Nuclear Security Administration of the DOE is working to convert the remaining research reactors, including the ATR, from 93% HEU fuel to 19.75% LEU fuel (LEU) to support non-proliferation [2]. Extensive materials testing at INL and internationally has demonstrated that a high-density uranium molybdenum (U 10Mo) alloy can meet the performance requirements of the remaining high powered research reactors. However, there are many technical challenges to address before the conversion to LEU can be successful, including the accurate characterization of the reactor core physics with LEU fuel. Reactor physics safety evaluations currently use Monte Carlo for the 21st Century (MC21), a continuous-energy Monte Carlo radiation transport code [3]. Existing MC21 models of the ATR and ATRC cores have a validation basis for use in neutronics analyses with HEU fuel. The models are used to support safety analyses that include comparisons to the safety requirements for the reactors. However, the use of the LOWE element in the ATR and ATRC is not currently covered by the current model validation basis. To deploy the new fuel type, extensive computational reactor physics support is necessary to support the use of LOWE in the ATR and ATRC. Therefore, LOWE requires a rigorous validation basis, aligned with that of HEU fuel, that takes advantage of the existing software tools and processes currently used for the ATR and ATRC. The experiment to validate of the MC21 models for determining power, the Power Impact Validation Experiment, will consist of two flux runs in the ATRC, one with fully HEU loading and one with a single LOWE element. Both flux runs will be instrumented with 20 sets of azimuthal fission wires and 3 sets of axial fission wires, as shown in Figure 4. Standard flux run methodology will be used [4]. Power Impact Validation Experiment data will be compared against MC21 calculated data, both for absolute fission rate accuracy and to determine the relative change in fission rates between the two runs. The results of the Power Impact Validation Experiment and subsequent evaluations will provide the validation basis for MC21 for use with LOWE elements. Key features of the Power Impact Validation Experiment include: (1) Two flux runs to allow for LOWE perturbed measurements to be compared to already validated measurements taken from a full core of HEU fuel, (2) Optimization of instrumentation to balance analytical needs with practical considerations (e.g., limited time window to count beta particles from fission products), and (3) Standard ATRC core loading, including both driver positions and flux traps, to minimize cost while remaining representative of typical ATR core loading.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Assessing the Economic Value of Underground Thermal Storage for Hybrid Geothermal Power

Solutions are needed to address resource adequacy in the electric power system for highly decarbonized systems. The storage duration, the length of time a storage device can provide continuous output at its rated capacity, must be sufficient to receive full credit toward resource adequacy. Longer peaks and high fractions of variable renewable generation have increased the required duration to potentially seasonal durations. Underground Thermal Energy Storage (UTES) can be adapted to a hybrid storage power plant or heating and cooling applications to satisfy the need for long-duration storage. In this study, we use the Renewable Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model to evaluate the increase in value for an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) resources by adding UTES. In modeled scenarios, using geothermal without storage as a baseline we compare the increase in economic value for plants with a range of storage characteristics. The added value of a hybrid storage plant changes depending on assumptions including the length of storage duration, efficiency, and ability to charge storage from the grid during periods of low energy prices. Relating proposed characteristics for geothermal UTES hybrids to the modeled economic value provides insight into economically viable costs for developing UTES as well as what combination of technology characteristics and future energy and policy assumptions drive significant value increases.

capacity expansion model↗

Introduction to this special section: Geophysical applications of fiber-optic distributed sensing

Here, this special section is dedicated to geophysical distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) and distributed temperature sensing (DTS) applications. Since the introduction of commercial DTS units in the 1980s and more recent deployment of DAS in this decade, distributed sensing is quietly revolutionizing sectors of geophysics, particularly those requiring permanent downhole measurements. The common component of distributed sensing technologies is the use of laser scattering measurements on fiber-optic cables (tens of kilometers long) to estimate the physical state of each fiber segment with measurands including temperature (DTS), static strain (DSS), and, most recently, dynamic strain and seismic waves (DAS) recorded either continuously or on an as-needed basis. The high spatial coverage, accuracy, and resolution of this technology make it a truly groundbreaking addition to our subsurface sensing toolbox.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

STARSAT: A Joint NASA/AF Project for Laser Calibration of Small Objects in Space

The Air Force Research Laboratory/Directed Energy Directorate (AFRL/DE) and the NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center are planning a joint laser space calibration experiments using the HI-CLASS ladar system and the Advanced Electro-Optical System (AEOS) located at Maui Space Surveillance System (MSSS). These experiments will use ladar data to provide accurate range and signature measurements of calibration spheres with known sizes. Ancillary experiment benefits could include calibrating operational sensors, analyzing effects of orbital perturbations on micro-satellites, and correlating radar and optical signatures. In the first experiment, a GPS/laser beacon instrumented micro-satellite about 20 cm in diameter would be deployed from a Space Shuttle Hitchhiker canister. Orbiting in LEO, the micro-satellite would pass over MSSS on the average of two times per 24 hour period. A timing circuit would activate the GPS unit that would in turn activate the laser beacon at the appropriate time. The HI-CLASS/AEOS system will detect and acquire the micro-sat as it rises above the horizon and demonstrate that continuous track can be maintained throughout the pass. Orbital parameters will be obtained. This operational approach should maximize visibility to the ground-based laser while allowing battery life to be conserved thus extending the lifetime of the satellite. GPS data will be transmitted to the ground, providing independent location information down to cm accuracies for comparison and evaluation purposes.

Campbell, Jonathan W.↗

NASA's Space Launch System: A New Opportunity for CubeSats

Designed for human exploration missions into deep space, NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) represents a new spaceflight infrastructure asset, enabling a wide variety of unique utilization opportunities. Together with the Orion crew vehicle and ground operations at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, SLS is a foundational capability for NASA's Journey to Mars. From the beginning of the SLS flight program, utilization of the vehicle will also include launching secondary payloads, including CubeSats, to deep-space destinations. Currently, SLS is making rapid progress toward readiness for its first launch in 2018, using the initial configuration of the vehicle, which is capable of delivering 70 metric tons (t) to Low Earth Orbit (LEO). On its first flight, Exploration Mission-1, SLS will launch an uncrewed test flight of the Orion spacecraft into distant retrograde orbit around the moon. Accompanying Orion on SLS will be 13 CubeSats, which will deploy in cislunar space. These CubeSats will include not only NASA research, but also spacecraft from industry and international partners and potentially academia. Following its first flight and potentially as early as its second, which will launch a crewed Orion spacecraft into cislunar space, SLS will evolve into a more powerful configuration with a larger upper stage. This configuration will initially be able to deliver 105 t to LEO and will continue to be upgraded to a performance of greater than 130 t to LEO. While the addition of the more powerful upper stage will mean a change to the secondary payload accommodations from Block 1, the SLS Program is already evaluating options for future secondary payload opportunities. Early discussions are also already underway for the use of SLS to launch spacecraft on interplanetary trajectories, which could open additional opportunities for CubeSats. This presentation will include an overview of the SLS vehicle and its capabilities, including the current status of progress toward first launch. It will also explain the opportunities the vehicle offers for CubeSats and secondary payloads, including an overview of the CubeSat manifest for Exploration Mission-1 in 2018.

Hitt, David↗

The NASA Solar Cruiser Mission - Solar Sail Propulsion Enabling Heliophysics Missions

Solar Cruiser is a Small Satellite Technology Demonstration Mission (TDM) to mature solar sail propulsion technology to enable near-term, high-priority breakthrough science missions as defined in the Solar and Space Physics Decadal Survey. Solar sails have the potential to provide high ΔV for many types of missions. Solar sails are large, mirror-like structures made of a lightweight material that reflects sunlight to propel the spacecraft. The continuous solar photon pressure provides thrust with no need for the heavy, expendable propellants used by conventional chemical and electric propulsion systems. Solar Cruiser will demonstrate a “sailcraft” platform with pointing control and attitude stability comparable to traditional platforms, upon which a new class of Heliophysics missions may fly. It will show sailcraft operation (acceleration, navigation, station keeping, heliocentric plane change) scalability of sail technologies such as the boom, membrane, and deployer to enable more demanding missions, such as high inclination solar imaging. Solar Cruiser will launch as a secondary payload with NASA’s Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe (IMAP) in early 2025. The sailcraft will separate from the launch vehicle on a near-L1 trajectory (Sun-Earth Lagrangian Point 1; sunward of L1 along the Sun-Earth Line) and complete its primary mission in 11 months or less.

Solar Sail↗

Passive Temperature Sensors for Nuclear Applications

Thermocouples are generally used to provide real-time temperature indications in instrumented tests performed at material and test reactors. Passive temperature monitors, such as Silicon Carbide (SiC) and melt wires, may be included in such tests as an independent technique of detecting peak temperatures experienced during irradiation. In less expensive static (drop-in) capsule tests, which have no leads attached for real-time data transmission, melt wires, and SiC temperature monitors (TMs) are essentially the only possibility for peak temperature indication. A melt wire involves placing materials (wires) of a known composition and melting temperature in a test. An inventory is maintained at Material Science Laboratory (MSL) for melt wires ranging in temperatures from 30°C to 1500°C. Unfortunately, melt wires are limited in that it can only detect whether a single temperature is or is not exceeded (melt wire melted or not). SiC TMs, which can also be used to detect peak irradiation temperatures, are advantageous because a single monitor can allow to determine the peak temperature reached within a relatively broad range (100 – 1200°C) resulting in accuracies within ±20°C. Irradiation temperature is determined by measuring a property change after isochronal annealing or during a continuously monitored annealing process using specialized equipment at MSL. Recent research has produced a passive monitor known as sublime temperature monitor. This passive sensor has the capability of recording temperature gradients and pinpointing exactly where a temperature is located along that gradient. Long measurement lengths are achieved with very high accuracy in the location of desired temperature measurements (±2 mm over a 1 m span); however, this sensor has not been deployed in a nuclear reactor. This article will focus only on passive temperature sensors currently being researched and implemented under the Advanced Sensors and Instrumentation (ASI) program at Idaho National Laboratory (INL).

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Uncrewed Lunar Surface Operations and Support Activities

Sustained human presence on the surface of the Moon and future missions to Mars require increased independence from surface crews and Earth-based mission control to operate efficiently, safely, and reliably. The time for surface crews to perform tasks will be limited. Extravehicular activities by surface personnel are burdensome and time-consuming, even when a continuous human presence on the surface occurs. Identifying and balancing human/automation roles and tasks and infusing automation and autonomy practices early in a system’s lifecycle will be essential to achieve mission objectives. Among these objectives are attaining a sustained human presence, improving performance and mission effectiveness, reducing operations and maintenance (O&M) costs, and ensuring operations that are robust to communication delays. To achieve these objectives, an operational shift toward increased automation and autonomy with less reliance on humans is needed. Uncrewed lunar surface operations and support activities occur when surface crews are not present or are independent of surface crew timeline activities requiring no surface crew oversight or intervention. These uncrewed surface opportunities can also be planned to minimize crew workload that avoids routine maintenance and support tasks, thus maximizing crew exploration time. Uncrewed preparations such as staging and prepositioning equipment and materials before the crew arrives could improve crew task efficiency. Additional opportunities exist to conduct uncrewed science, exploration, and utilization. Uncrewed surface architecture functions can include science and exploration; habitation; launch and landing support; surface communication and navigation; surface power generation and distribution; human surface mobility; lifting, handling, manipulating; excavation, construction, and site preparation; logistics management; maintenance and repair; surface resource utilization; integrated site operations and shared support services (e.g., site scheduling/prioritization, dust mitigation/contamination control, and surface safety). Early robotic lunar surface campaigns will provide information on the availability of resources, such as oxygen and water, and demonstrate surface-based technologies. After the Artemis III human lunar return mission, a series of landers will deliver surface systems, cargo, supplies, science packages, spare parts, and commodities. A balance of crewed and uncrewed surface operations will enable a sustained lunar surface presence at the South Pole of the Moon at a site that will be known as the Artemis Base Camp (ABC). It is envisioned that base camp operations on and around the Moon will then help prepare for the mission durations and activities needed to support the first human mission to Mars. Before long-duration crew missions to the base camp can occur, the necessary surface infrastructure will be pre-deployed and verified operational. Surface assets will be teleoperated and remotely managed from Earth. Additionally, robotic and short-duration crewed missions to the ABC will ensure the site’s merit to achieve long-term science objectives, availability of usable resources, and that terrain, seasonal variations, and illumination conditions are acceptable. ABC will consist of different areas where specific functions and services are rendered, including: • Launch and Landing Area • Habitation Area • Power Production Area • Resource Areas Launch and Landing Area—The launch and landing area will support associated functions for the arrival and departure of vehicles, such as crewed landing and ascent and uncrewed cargo deliveries and offloading. It will evolve from an unimproved site at the beginning of the exploration campaign to a more sustainable landing and launch area that can support repeated arrivals and departures. Initial uncrewed Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) surface operations may include emplacement of navigation beacons and communication equipment, real-time video and photography of landing/liftoff events, and element repositioning, such as portable utility power (PUP) (applicable for other landed assets at other areas). Site preparations, such as surface leveling, soil compaction, and berm/path construction, may be needed for a more sustainable launch and landing area capable of accommodating vehicles that are increasingly more reusable and reduce the effects of plume surface interactions and ejecta impacts on nearby surface assets. During the ABC missions, cargo and logistics will be delivered to the lunar surface via robotic cargo landers before the crew arrives. These shipments, which can arrive in pressurized logistics carriers, will deliver the logistics necessary to support a crewed mission and include items such as food, water, equipment spares, etc. Providing the capability to retrieve, offload, and transport the logistics closer to the ABC site before the arrival of the crew will increase the overall efficiency of crew operations once they arrive. In the sustained phase of exploration, other supporting services may be needed, such as lander propellant servicing, surface power services, commodity refreshes, and additional inspection, maintenance, and repair capabilities, to sustain a cadence of extended personnel stays and cargo arrivals and departures. Habitation Area—Uncrewed support to surface habitation could involve supporting activation and pre-entry operations of the habitat while the crew is in orbit at the Gateway outpost preparing for a surface landing. Surface Habitat (SH) uncrewed operations may include bringing the cabin environment to a habitable temperature and air mix and activating other critical crew support systems. Potential crop production uncrewed tasks in the SH could also include autonomous watering and tending. Additionally, when the crew departs, the SH enters dormancy for the long period of uncrewed operation. A logistical staging area could also be collocated near the SH. If so, staging operations for crew supplies, waste re-location, and recycling operations may be opportunities for uncrewed operations. Power Production Area—The Fission Surface Power (FSP) element and its supporting distribution equipment provide power to surface elements as needed across the ABC to supplement day-to-day operations and survive lunar nights. Uncrewed support of this power system includes any initial LTV-assisted deployments of cables and other distributed equipment, associated electrical connections, and system testing and activation operations. Robotically performing some inspections, maintenance, or repair tasks on the power distribution equipment could reduce the surface crew workload. Resource Area— Uncrewed resource prospecting, mapping, and characterizing possible resource sites is likely to be time-consuming and represents an opportunity for uncrewed operations between crewed missions. Uncrewed mobile equipment operations will be needed in the extreme environments of permanently shadowed locations where resource extractions occur. As In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) pilot plant operations begin, uncrewed surface support activities with available mobile and portable assets (LTV, PUP, etc.) will better support these operations. Any produced commodities can be stored at a centralized storage location for future use. Also associated with these operations is the use of mobile robotic excavators for resource acquisition and robotic/autonomous regolith processing. The waste tailings generated during excavation and regolith processing would also need to be transported and deposited at a dedicated location. Surface assets will continue operating between crew visits to maintain surface capabilities, conduct lunar surface science, technology demonstrations, and public outreach opportunities. Additionally, certain sustaining tasks that would consume valuable crew time could be performed before crew arrival, or after their departure. This capability may offer more affordable options to construct, activate, test, and maintain a broad set of surface assets. Telerobotically operated human surface mobility systems, such as the LTV and Pressurized Rover (PR), can be utilized for various tasks. Surface environmental conditions pose a distinct challenge for all these activities. Surface illumination and localized shadows are one such factor. Night-survival operations could consist of thermal management, battery pre-charging, and load shedding. Some surface systems may hibernate through the night and then awake and continue nominal operations. Uncrewed mobile assets may use a more adaptive approach to optimize their power and operations; one method is to follow the sunlight. Night-survival operations may be initiated remotely by teleoperation, automated, or accomplished by supervised autonomous operation. The ability to pre-deploy and control remote assets in orbit or on Mars before the arrival of the mission crew is a key capability that can be simulated on the moon. The base camp provides a venue where these advanced operational concepts, technologies, and autonomous methods and techniques, including the incorporation of time delays to simulate Earth-Mars latency can be replicated to help buy down future Mars mission risks. This paper will examine the evolution of uncrewed lunar surface operations and support activities. It will also discuss the lunar surface environmental conditions (thermal, lighting, terrain, topography, communications) along with the challenges they pose on uncrewed surface operations, and the performance of these activities with limited to minimal human interaction and/or teleoperation. Since lunar missions include Mars mission analogs, such investigation provides the framework for future uncrewed Mars mission support.

Mark E Lewis↗

Outlooks for Wind Power in the United States: Drivers and Trends under a 2016 Policy Environment

Over the past decade, wind power has become one of the fastest growing electricity generation sources in the United States. Despite this growth, the U.S. wind industry continues to experience year-to-year fluctuations across the manufacturing and supply chain as a result of dynamic market conditions and changing policy landscapes. Moreover, with advancing wind technologies, ever-changing fossil fuel prices, and evolving energy policies, the long-term future for wind power is highly uncertain. In this report, we present multiple outlooks for wind power in the United States, to explore the possibilities of future wind deployment. The future wind power outlooks presented rely on high-resolution wind resource data and advanced electric sector modeling capabilities to evaluate an array of potential scenarios of the U.S. electricity system. Scenario analysis is used to explore drivers, trends, and implications for wind power deployment over multiple periods through 2050. Specifically, we model 16 scenarios of wind deployment in the contiguous United States. These scenarios span a wide range of wind technology costs, natural gas prices, and future transmission expansion. We identify conditions with more consistent wind deployment after the production tax credit expires as well as drivers for more robust wind growth in the long run. Conversely, we highlight challenges to future wind deployment. We find that the degree to which wind technology costs decline can play an important role in future wind deployment, electric sector CO 2 emissions, and lowering allowance prices for the Clean Power Plan.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Emerging Challenges in the China-US Strategic Military Relationship

The Emerging Challenges in the China-­US Strategic Military Relationship workshop, held at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s Center for Global Security Research (CGSR) on March 28th and 29th, 2017, sought to identify and explore key factors in the evolving bilateral relationship with an emphasis on security issues. Participants broadly agreed that while the US-­China relationship remains stable, particularly in the nuclear domain, the overall relationship is trending negatively. As the People’s Republic of China (PRC) continues to experience economic and technological growth, its military strength is also increasing. This increase in military strength as well as Chinese actions in the region have led to increasing uneasiness amongst the United States and its allies. At the same time, it appears that China views the downturn in bilateral relations as the fault of the United States; in particular, former President Obama’s rebalance policy, and the discussions of and deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system. Concern was expressed regarding the overall stability of the US-­China military relationship, and it was noted that strategic stability is less stable than before due to conventional balance shifts and the increased risks of escalation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

SYS645 Design for Reliability Maintainability and Supportability: H12 Universal Cartridge Carrier (circa 1952)

The initial product specification' for the H12 Universal Cartridge Carrier (UUC) was released in October 1952 and is the twelfth piece of H-Gear (sequentially numbered) ever developed. It is the oldest piece of H-Gear currently in use. To gain perspective on the number of H-Gear since designed, the most currently developed and deployed H-Gear is the H1768, Inspection Stand. The UUC, (commonly referred to as just the "H12") has since been renamed to the H12 Adjustable Hand Truck. It was developed to support various maintenance operations for ordnance assembly and disassembly. This paper will provide evidence (where available) for the H12s current state of reliability, maintainability, and sustainability (RMA). Where documented evidence is not available, conclusions will be drawn based on its continued effective use over the past 67-years of service.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Real-time measurements of secondary organic aerosol formation and aging from ambient air in an oxidation flow reactor in the Los Angeles area

Field studies in polluted areas over the last decade have observed large formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) that is often poorly captured by models. The study of SOA formation using ambient data is often confounded by the effects of advection, vertical mixing, emissions, and variable degrees of photochemical aging. An oxidation flow reactor (OFR) was deployed to study SOA formation in real-time during the California Research at the Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change (CalNex) campaign in Pasadena, CA, in 2010. A high-resolution aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) and a scanning mobility particle sizer (SMPS) alternated sampling ambient and reactor-aged air. The reactor produced OH concentrations up to 4 orders of magnitude higher than in ambient air. OH radical concentration was continuously stepped, achieving equivalent atmospheric aging of 0.8 days–6.4 weeks in 3 min of processing every 2 h. Enhancement of organic aerosol (OA) from aging showed a maximum net SOA production between 0.8–6 days of aging with net OA mass loss beyond 2 weeks. Reactor SOA mass peaked at night, in the absence of ambient photochemistry and correlated with trimethylbenzene concentrations. Reactor SOA formation was inversely correlated with ambient SOA and O x , which along with the short-lived volatile organic compound correlation, indicates the importance of very reactive ( τ OH ~ 0.3 day) SOA precursors (most likely semivolatile and intermediate volatility species, S/IVOCs) in the Greater Los Angeles Area. Evolution of the elemental composition in the reactor was similar to trends observed in the atmosphere (O : C vs. H : C slope ~ –0.65). Oxidation state of carbon (OSc) in reactor SOA increased steeply with age and remained elevated (OS C ~ 2) at the highest photochemical ages probed. The ratio of OA in the reactor output to excess CO (ΔCO, ambient CO above regional background) vs. photochemical age is similar to previous studies at low to moderate ages and also extends to higher ages where OA loss dominates. The mass added at low-to-intermediate ages is due primarily to condensation of oxidized species, not heterogeneous oxidation. The OA decrease at high photochemical ages is dominated by heterogeneous oxidation followed by fragmentation/evaporation. A comparison of urban SOA formation in this study with a similar study of vehicle SOA in a tunnel suggests the importance of vehicle emissions for urban SOA. Pre-2007 SOA models underpredict SOA formation by an order of magnitude, while a more recent model performs better but overpredicts at higher ages. Furthermore, these results demonstrate the value of the reactor as a tool for in situ evaluation of the SOA formation potential and OA evolution from ambient air.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Offshore reanalysis wind speed assessment across the wind turbine rotor layer off the United States Pacific coast

Abstract. The California Pacific coast is characterized by considerable wind resource and areas of dense population, propelling interest in offshore wind energy as the United States moves toward a sustainable and decarbonized energy future. Reanalysis models continue to serve the wind energy community in a multitude of ways, and the need for validation in locations where observations have been historically limited, such as offshore environments, is strong. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) owns two lidar buoys that collect wind speed observations across the wind turbine rotor layer along with meteorological and oceanographic data near the surface to characterize the wind resource. Lidar buoy data collected from recent deployments off the northern California coast near Humboldt County and the central California coast near Morro Bay allow for validation of commonly used reanalysis products. In this article, wind speeds from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2), the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), and the analysis system of the Rapid Refresh (RAP) are validated at heights within the wind turbine rotor layer ranging from 50 to 100 m. The validation results offer guidance on the performance and uncertainty associated with utilizing reanalyses for offshore wind resource characterization, providing the offshore wind energy community with information on the conditions that lead to reanalysis error. At both California coast locations, the reanalyses tend to underestimate the observed rotor-level wind resource. Occasions of large reanalysis error occur in conjunction with stable atmospheric conditions, wind speeds associated with peak turbine power production (> 10 m s−1), and mischaracterization of the diurnal wind speed cycle in summer months.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

[MODIS Investigation]

The objectives of the last six months were: (1) Revise the algorithms for the Fluorescence Line Height (FLH) and Chlorophyll Fluorescence Efficiency (CFE) products, especially the data quality flags; (2) Revise the MOCEAN validation plan; (3) Deploy and recover bio-optical instrumentation at the Hawaii Ocean Time-series (HOT) site as part of the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS); (4) Prepare for field work in the Antarctic Polar Frontal Zone as part of JGOFS; (5) Submit manuscript on bio-optical time scales as estimated from Lagrangian drifters; (6) Conduct chemostat experiments on fluorescence; (7) Interface with the Global Imager (GLI) science team; and (8) Continue development of advanced data system browser. We are responsible for the delivery of two at-launch products for AM-1: Fluorescence line height (FLH) and chlorophyll fluorescence efficiency (CFE). We also considered revising the input chlorophyll, which is used to determine the degree of binning. We have refined the quality flags for the Version 2 algorithms. We have acquired and installed a Silicon Graphics Origin 200. We are working with the University of Miami team to develop documentation that will describe how the MODIS ocean components are linked together.

Abbott, Mark R.↗