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USAID Haiti Training Session #4: Resilience and Power Sector Modeling Part I [Slides]

Welcome to Engage! Engage is a capacity expansion modeling tool supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and based on the Calliope open-source capacity expansion model developed by the ETH Zurich University, maintained at the TU Delft University. Engage is an accessible (free, open-access, web-hosted) and flexible web-based energy system planning application for rapid multiple-energy-form energy system scenario exploration. Its cloud-based, collaborator-sharable data model, intuitive interface and visualization capabilities facilitate collaboration and communication among teams, with experts, and among diverse stakeholder groups exploring energy system implications at from district to national-scale models. This training series was developed under USAID to empower Haitian stakeholders to explore modeling scenarios in Engage to develop a Haiti Energy Master Plan. This training series includes a general overview of how Engage works along with tailored exercises that target Haiti's specific energy needs, such as modeling the capacity expansion of the bulk power system, fuel scarcity challenges, the development of microgrids, and the economic viability of transmission strategies. See NREL/PR-7A40-89408 for the French translation of this document.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

USAID Haiti Training Session #4: Resilience and Power Sector Modeling Part II [Slides]

Welcome to Engage! Engage is a capacity expansion modeling tool supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and based on the Calliope open-source capacity expansion model developed by the ETH Zurich University, maintained at the TU Delft University. Engage is an accessible (free, open-access, web-hosted) and flexible web-based energy system planning application for rapid multiple-energy-form energy system scenario exploration. Its cloud-based, collaborator-sharable data model, intuitive interface and visualization capabilities facilitate collaboration and communication among teams, with experts, and among diverse stakeholder groups exploring energy system implications from district to national-scale models. This training series was developed under USAID to empower Haitian stakeholders to explore modeling scenarios in Engage to develop a Haiti Energy Master Plan. This training series includes a general overview of how Engage works along with tailored exercises that target Haiti's specific energy needs, such as modeling the capacity expansion of the bulk power system, fuel scarcity challenges, the development of microgrids, and the economic viability of transmission strategies. See NREL/PR-7A40-89412 for the French translation of this document.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Seance de formation n4: Modelisation de la resilience et du secteur de l'electricite - Partie I [Slides]

Welcome to Engage! Engage is a capacity expansion modeling tool supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and based on the Calliope open-source capacity expansion model developed by the ETH Zurich University, maintained at the TU Delft University. Engage is an accessible (free, open-access, web-hosted) and flexible web-based energy system planning application for rapid multiple-energy-form energy system scenario exploration. Its cloud-based, collaborator-sharable data model, intuitive interface and visualization capabilities facilitate collaboration and communication among teams, with experts, and among diverse stakeholder groups exploring energy system implications from district to national-scale models. This training series was developed under USAID to empower Haitian stakeholders to explore modeling scenarios in Engage to develop a Haiti Energy Master Plan. This training series includes a general overview of how Engage works along with tailored exercises that target Haiti's specific energy needs, such as modeling the capacity expansion of the bulk power system, fuel scarcity challenges, the development of microgrids, and the economic viability of transmission strategies. See NREL/PR-7A40-88838 for the English translation of this document.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Seance de formation n4: Modelisation de la resilience et du secteur de l'electricite - Partie II [Slides]

Welcome to Engage! Engage is a capacity expansion modeling tool supported by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and based on the Calliope open-source capacity expansion model developed by the ETH Zurich University, maintained at the TU Delft University. Engage is an accessible (free, open-access, web-hosted) and flexible web-based energy system planning application for rapid multiple-energy-form energy system scenario exploration. Its cloud-based, collaborator-sharable data model, intuitive interface and visualization capabilities facilitate collaboration and communication among teams, with experts, and among diverse stakeholder groups exploring energy system implications from district to national-scale models. This training series was developed under USAID to empower Haitian stakeholders to explore modeling scenarios in Engage to develop a Haiti Energy Master Plan. This training series includes a general overview of how Engage works along with tailored exercises that target Haiti's specific energy needs, such as modeling the capacity expansion of the bulk power system, fuel scarcity challenges, the development of microgrids, and the economic viability of transmission strategies. See NREL/PR-7A40-89389 for the English translation of this document.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Finite element analysis of the Space Shuttle 2.5-inch frangible nut

Finite element analysis of the Space Shuttle 2.5-inch frangible nut was conducted to improve understanding of the current design and proposed design changes to this explosively-actuated nut. The 2.5-inch frangible nut is used in two places to attach the aft end of the Space Shuttle Orbiter to the External Tank. Both 2.5-inch frangible nuts must function to complete safe separation. The 2.5-inch frangible nut contains two explosive boosters containing RDX explosive each capable of splitting the nut in half, on command from the Orbiter computers. To ensure separation, the boosters are designed to be redundant. The detonation of one booster is sufficient to split the nut in half. However, beginning in 1987 some production lots of 2.5-inch frangible nuts have demonstrated an inability to separate using only a single booster. The cause of the failure has been attributed to differences in the material properties and response of the Inconel 718 from which the 2.5-inch frangible nut is manufactured. Subsequent tests have resulted in design modifications of the boosters and frangible nut. Model development and initial analysis was conducted by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) under funding from NASA Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center (NASA-JSC) starting in 1992. Modeling codes previously developed by SNL were transferred to NASA-JSC for further analysis on this and other devices. An explosive bolt with NASA Standard Detonator (NSD) charge, a 3/4-inch frangible nut, and the Super*Zip linear separation system are being modeled by NASA-JSC.

Darin N. McKinnis↗

Alluvial fan morphology: A self-similar free boundary problem description

In this work, we examine approximate geometrically self-similar solutions to a parabolic free boundary value problem applied to alluvial fan surface morphology and growth. Alluvial fans are fan- or cone-shaped sedimentary deposits caused by the rapid deposition of sediment from a canyon discharging onto a flatter plain. Longitudinal, topographic profiles of fans can be readily described by a seemingly time independent dimensionless profile (DeChant et al., 1999). However, because an alluvial fan can be expected to grow over time, it is clear that this “steady” profile is certainly time dependent and can be described using a space-time self-similar solution. In an experimental and theory-based study, Guerit et al. (2014) developed a self-similar (or as they describe it a self-affine) linear solution based upon an approximate first order small parameter expansion solution for a 1-d homogeneous nonlinear diffusion equation. Direct substitution of this result into a linear diffusion equation suggests that this first order expression may not fully satisfy the associated governing equation. In contrast, we develop a more complete solution based upon a modeled approximation for the axi-symmetric formulation such that the associated temporal behavior is consistent with a 1/3 time power-law as described by Reitz and Jerolmack (2014). The resulting expression is an exact solution to a linear heat equation. Furthermore, we emphasize that a small parameter is not inherent to the resulting profile result and is not included in our model development. Though developed using rather different approaches, the formal solution developed here is in good agreement with the simple polynomial described by DeChant et al. (1999) suggesting that this self-similar solution is a suitable time dependent representation of alluvial fan longitudinal profile form and improves on earlier work.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Wind Loading on CSP Collectors

The project significantly enhanced the community's understanding of the fundamental physics drivers underlying the wind-loading experienced by concentrating solar power (CSP) collector structures (i.e., parabolic troughs and heliostats) as well as their support structures. This project had two overarching objectives: (1) detailed measurements to characterize the prevailing wind conditions and resulting operational loads on collector structures, and (2) development and validation of a computationally efficient, high-fidelity modeling tool capable of predicting wind-loading in deep-array installations. Over three years, we conducted comprehensive at-scale field measurements of the atmospheric turbulent wind conditions, and the resulting wind loads on parabolic troughs and heliostats. Two at-scale measurement campaigns yielded first-of-its-kind, high-resolution, long-term datasets that are used to characterize the complex flow field and wind loading on parabolic-troughs and heliostats in operational power plants. The high-resolution measurements collected during these campaigns were used to validate the high-fidelity computational models developed at NREL. These open-source computationally efficient models were shown to be accurate in predicting wind-driven loads on collectors without the need for a large supercomputer.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Design Methods, Tools, and Data for Ceramic Solar Receivers Year 1 Continuation Report

This report describes the first year of work on a project to develop the methods, tools, and data required to analyze high temperature ceramic Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) components. This first year focused on developing the methods and data required for a time-independent assessment of potential components, focusing in particular on ceramic solar receivers. The report describes both model development and testing work focused on accomplishing this goal. Our overall conclusion is that high temperature ceramic CSP components are viable and could provide a means to overcome the expected low reliability and short service life for equivalent components constructed from Ni-based superalloys. Based on the results reported here, we recommend the project continue to Phase II which will develop more sophisticated, realistic models for time-dependent failure of ceramics operating in expected CSP component conditions and develop the time-dependent ceramic test data needed to parameterize these models, using commercial SiC as a reference material.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Flight Effects of Turbofan Fan Tones

This paper presents a summary and status of the ongoing development of an all-new fan tone noise prediction process. This process is being developed based on data from both the Quiet Technology Demonstrator 2 (QTD2) and the NASA/Boeing Propulsion Aeroacoustics & Aircraft System Noise (PAA/ASN) tests. The fan tone prediction model development steps are outlined, and rationale for a framework is provided. The two most significant findings of this work are how the fan tone noise correlates best with relative tip Mach number and the change in the directivity of the inlet tone noise relative to the aft. Using the framework, an initial proposed model has been developed which reduces the overall fan tone noise prediction miss on a power-level basis from +/- ~25dB to +/- ~5dB. This is expected to greatly improve the ability to predict both current and future aircraft concepts.

Fan Noise↗

A New Standard DNA Damage (SDD) Data Format

Our understanding of radiation-induced cellular damage has greatly improved over the past few decades. Despite this progress, there are still many obstacles to fully understand how radiation interacts with biologically relevant cellular components, such as DNA, to cause observable end points such as cell killing. Damage in DNA is identified as a major route of cell killing. One hurdle when modeling biological effects is the difficulty in directly comparing results generated by members of different research groups. Multiple Monte Carlo codes have been developed to simulate damage induction at the DNA scale, while at the same time various groups have developed models that describe DNA repair processes with varying levels of detail. These repair models are intrinsically linked to the damage model employed in their development, making it difficult to disentangle systematic effects in either part of the modeling chain. These modeling chains typically consist of track-structure Monte Carlo simulations of the physical interactions creating direct damages to DNA, followed by simulations of the production and initial reactions of chemical species causing so-called “indirect” damages. After the induction of DNA damage, DNA repair models combine the simulated damage patterns with biological models to determine the biological consequences of the damage. To date, the effect of the environment, such as molecular oxygen (normoxic vs. hypoxic), has been poorly considered. We propose a new standard DNA damage (SDD) data format to unify the interface between the simulation of damage induction in DNA and the biological modeling of DNA repair processes, and introduce the effect of the environment (molecular oxygen or other compounds) as a flexible parameter. Such a standard greatly facilitates intermodel comparisons, providing an ideal environment to tease out model assumptions and identify persistent, underlying mechanisms. Through inter-model comparisons, this unified standard has the potential to significantly advance our understanding of the underlying mechanisms of radiation-induced DNA damage and the resulting observable biological effects when radiation parameters and/or environmental conditions change.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

Fatigue life prediction modeling for turbine hot section materials

A major objective of the fatigue and fracture efforts under the Hot Section Technology (HOST) program was to significantly improve the analytic life prediction tools used by the aeronautical gas turbine engine industry. This was achieved in the areas of high-temperature thermal and mechanical fatigue of bare and coated high-temperature superalloys. The cyclic crack initiation and propagation resistance of nominally isotropic polycrystalline and highly anisotropic single crystal alloys were addressed. Life prediction modeling efforts were devoted to creep-fatigue interaction, oxidation, coatings interactions, multiaxiality of stress-strain states, mean stress effects, cumulative damage, and thermomechanical fatigue. The fatigue crack initiation life models developed to date include the Cyclic Damage Accumulation (CDA) and the Total Strain Version of Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP) for nominally isotropic materials, and the Tensile Hysteretic Energy Model for anisotropic superalloys. A fatigue model is being developed based upon the concepts of Path-Independent Integrals (PII) for describing cyclic crack growth under complex nonlinear response at the crack tip due to thermomechanical loading conditions. A micromechanistic oxidation crack extension model was derived. The models are described and discussed.

Halford, G. R.↗

Fatigue life prediction modeling for turbine hot section materials

A major objective of the fatigue and fracture efforts under the NASA Hot Section Technology (HOST) program was to significantly improve the analytic life prediction tools used by the aeronautical gas turbine engine industry. This was achieved in the areas of high-temperature thermal and mechanical fatigue of bare and coated high-temperature superalloys. The cyclic crack initiation and propagation resistance of nominally isotropic polycrystalline and highly anisotropic single crystal alloys were addressed. Life prediction modeling efforts were devoted to creep-fatigue interaction, oxidation, coatings interactions, multiaxiality of stress-strain states, mean stress effects, cumulative damage, and thermomechanical fatigue. The fatigue crack initiation life models developed to date include the Cyclic Damage Accumulation (CDA) and the Total Strain Version of Strainrange Partitioning (TS-SRP) for nominally isotropic materials, and the Tensile Hysteretic Energy Model for anisotropic superalloys. A fatigue model is being developed based upon the concepts of Path-Independent Integrals (PII) for describing cyclic crack growth under complex nonlinear response at the crack tip due to thermomechanical loading conditions. A micromechanistic oxidation crack extension model was derived. The models are described and discussed.

G R Halford↗

Multi-Model and Multi-Scale Global Sensitivity Analysis for Identifying Controlling Processes of Complex Systems

An environmental model consists of multiple process level sub-models, and each sub-model represents a process that is key to the operation of the simulated system. Global sensitivity analysis methods have been widely used to identify important processes for system model development and improvement. The existing methods of global sensitivity analysis only consider parametric uncertainty, and are not capable of handling model uncertainty caused by multiple process models that arise from competing hypotheses about one or more processes. To address this problem, this project develops a new method to probe model output sensitivity to competing process models by integrating model averaging methods with variance-based global sensitivity analysis to address uncertainty in process models and parameters. The new method yields three process sensitivity indices. The first one is called first-order process sensitivity index, and it is derived as a single summary measure of relative process importance. Evaluating the index is computationally expensive, because it relies in a Monte Carlo scheme that requires thousands and even millions of model executions. To reduce computational cost, this project develops a computationally efficient, quasi Monte Carlo method, and this method is presented in Chapter 2 of this report with and a numerical example for demonstration. The numerical example shows that the results of the quasi Monte Carlo method are substantially close to those of the full Monte Carlo method, but the computational cost of the quasi Monte Carlo method is only 0.7% of that of the full Monte Carlo method. The second index is called total-effect process sensitivity index, and it measures interactions between different processes. Therefore, this sensitivity index includes the first-order process sensitivity index, and can be used to identify influential processes. On the other hand, the total-effect process sensitivity index can also be used to screen non-influential processes. This is demonstrated by two numerical examples using the Sobol-G* functions and groundwater flow models that consider recharge process, geological process, and snowmelt process. The numerical examples shows that the total-effect process sensitivity index is more informative than the first-order process sensitivity. The derivation of the process sensitivity index and the numerical examples are discussed in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 presents two computationally efficient methods for screening non-influential processes to exclude them from further investigation. The two methods are the multi-model difference-based sensitivity (MMDS) analysis method, which can be implemented using the Latin Hypercube Sampling. The second one is the implementation of MMDS method using a binning method. The numerical example for the Sobol-G* function indicates the two methods are capable of identifying non-influential models, and the numerical examples for the groundwater flow and reactive transport show that the two methods are effective for groundwater problems. However, it should be noted that the two methods are numerical approximations, and they can only be used for screening non-influential processes, not for ranking importance of system processes. All the sensitivity analysis methods are implemented by developing python codes, and the codes are in a software called SAMMPY: a python package for process sensitivity analysis under multiple models. The SAMMPY design and structure are discussed in Chapter 5, and the package is released to the public for free download.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tutorial: Lessons Learned for Behavior Analysts from Data Scientists

Big data is a computing term used to refer to large and complex data sets, typically consisting of terabytes or more of diverse data that is produced rapidly. The analysis of such complex data sets requires advanced analysis techniques with the capacity to identify patterns and abstract meanings from the vast data. The field of data science combines computer science with mathematics/statistics and leverages artificial intelligence, in particular machine learning, to analyze big data. This field holds great promise for behavior analysis, where both clinical and research studies produce large volumes of diverse data at a rapid pace (i.e., big data). This article presents basic lessons for the behavior analytic researchers and clinicians regarding integration of data science into the field of behavior analysis. We provide guidance on how to collect, protect, and process the data, while highlighting the importance of collaborating with data scientists to select a proper machine learning model that aligns with the project goals and develop models with input from human experts. Here, we hope this serves as a guide to support the behavior analysts interested in the field of data science to advance their practice or research, and helps them avoid some common pitfalls.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Developing an Evolutionary Baseline Model for Humans: Jointly Inferring Purifying Selection with Population History

Building evolutionarily appropriate baseline models for natural populations is not only important for answering fundamental questions in population genetics—including quantifying the relative contributions of adaptive versus nonadaptive processes—but also essential for identifying candidate loci experiencing relatively rare and episodic forms of selection (e.g., positive or balancing selection). Here, a baseline model was developed for a human population of West African ancestry, the Yoruba, comprising processes constantly operating on the genome (i.e., purifying and background selection, population size changes, recombination rate heterogeneity, and gene conversion). Specifically, to perform joint inference of selective effects with demography, an approximate Bayesian approach was employed that utilizes the decay of background selection effects around functional elements, taking into account genomic architecture. This approach inferred a recent 6-fold population growth together with a distribution of fitness effects that is skewed towards effectively neutral mutations. Importantly, these results further suggest that, although strong and/or frequent recurrent positive selection is inconsistent with observed data, weak to moderate positive selection is consistent but unidentifiable if rare.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Enabling off-highway diesel engine downsizing and performance improvement using electrically assisted turbocharging

Internal combustion engine (ICE) downsizing through various turbocharging configurations is generally known by the powertrain design community as an effective means to reduce frictional losses, increase waste heat recovery, and improve fuel efficiency while increasing engine power density. However, often is the case that turbocharging strategies, including variable geometry turbochargers, and regulated two-stage turbochargers, incur the performance tradeoff between transient response and fuel economy (pumping losses) at high engine speeds. For off-highway vehicles having particularly transient and high-powered duty cycles, efforts to improve this tradeoff and increase operational flexibility have turned to evaluating various electrified air system architectures. In this study, a 4.5 L diesel-ICE configured with an electrically driven compressor (eBooster ® ) is placed in series with a conventional turbocharger and integrated into a 48 V mild-hybrid powertrain architecture. The objective of this powertrain configuration is to enable engine downsizing by 34%, replacing the current 6.8 L ICE platform with the hybridized 4.5 L ICE concept. The commercial 1-D simulation software GT-SUITE is used for powertrain system development and system optimization. Development and validation of the GT-SUITE model and air system controls is concurrently supported through experimental data collection. The simulation model development includes using machine learning methods for optimizing exhaust gas dilution, injection timing, and eBooster ® power to improve steady-state and transient brake-specific fuel consumption while minimizing criteria pollutant emissions. It was found that total specific fluid consumption over the standardized non-road transient engine duty cycle could be reduced by 18% over the current 6.8 L engine by using an optimized eBoosted 4.5 L engine. The hybridized 4.5 L engine concept concurrently showed sufficient transient response capability and nearly an order of magnitude reduction in duty cycle total soot production.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Abstract - Cooperative Research and Development Agreement between Sotacarbo and National Energy Technology Laboratory

The objective of this CRADA between NETL and Sotacarbo is to develop mutual collaboration in the areas of: CFD Modeling for optimization of coal/biomass gasification processes, CO 2 Separation by Membranes, CO 2 -to-Liquids, & CO 2 Sequestration. The CFD modeling and optimization of coal/biomass gasification processes project will bring together NETL’s expertise in the area of computational multiphase flows with Sotacarbo’s expertise in the area of design and operation of coal and biomass gasifiers. The outcome of this collaboration should be validated coal/biomass CFD models, which can assist in design and scale-up studies of gasifiers. There are several gasification units at Sotacarbo’s Research Center which can be used for gasification model development and validation using NETL’s MFiX Suite of multiphase flow CFD software. The other remaining technical topic outcomes will be determined at a later time as a result of further discussions.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗